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Nintendo Kid
Aug 4, 2011

by Smythe

ProfessorCurly posted:

So, anyway. I saw the book was out of stock in amazon, does anyone know if it is still being printed/they will have more in at some point?

This is the 21st century, popular books don't go out of print. Anyway it's available on Kindle.

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ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:
Kindle Reader, by the way, can run on basically anything now. So even if you don't have a Kindle device you could read it on your phone/PC most likely. I know that might not be the way you're used to reading a book, but it might be worth a shot.

z0glin Warchief
May 16, 2007

Yeah I've been reading the Kindle version on my android, it's pretty nice. One problem I have with it is that since you can resize the text (which is awesome), I can't seem to find a way to figure out what page I'm on exactly so it's difficult to quote stuff. There's probably a way to do this, I just haven't found it yet.

One of the points that Piketty raises in the book, that I don't think I've seen much if any discussion about, is that the rate of return on capital is not equal. That is, the larger the starting fortune, the higher the rate of return on it.

One of his specific examples is American university endowments (which is a great source because, one, lots of variation in size, and two, very well documented). A school like Harvard or Yale consistently gets returns of around 10 percent, whereas a school with a smaller starting endowment might get a return between 6 and 7 percent. (Piketty's table on it here (pdf); note that the returns are net of both inflation and administrative&management fees)

I feel like that is a pretty important point, because it seems like a strong amplifying effect on the concentration of wealth; not only are the biggest fortunes growing the fastest in absolute terms, but also relative terms, making the game of catch-up almost impossible. This also has troubling implications for the meritocracy argument for inequality as well, because the return on fortunes like these (once you've hit a certain size threshold) doesn't rely on the "merit" of the owner in question; someone who inherits 10 billion dollars is going to make a killing just by paying experts to make money for them.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

As someone with a background in investments/finance, I thought Piketty's point on university endowments was interesting.
He's essentially arguing that the excess returns of larger endowments over smaller endowments can be explained by the former's access to higher return alternative investment strategies (e.g., private equity). These strategies are illiquid, volatile, require large minimum investments, and frequently have a long lock-up period. Smaller endowments aren't likely to be able to invest in them.

I pulled the following data from an industry group study. Notice how allocations for alt. strategies go up as the size of the endowments go up?
http://www.nacubo.org/Documents/EndowmentFiles/2013NCSEPressReleaseFinal.pdf (page 6)


As a side note, it's also helpful to compare endowment returns with that of the S&P over the same period. A quick Google shows an annualized real return of 9.16% for 1980-2010.
In other words, outside of HYP, the average endowment regardless of size performed worse than a passive fund tracking the S&P.
Obviously the S&P return doesn't take into account administrative and misc. expenses, but it's safe to guess that would/should be on the order of low double digit basis points at most.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

shrike82 posted:

In other words, outside of HYP, the average endowment regardless of size performed worse than a passive fund tracking the S&P.

Isn't that true of almost all managed funds?

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Yes, active funds tend to underperform their benchmarks after expenses. There's a reason why Buffett says that he'd like the trustee of his personal investment portfolio to be invested 90% passively in equities and 10% in fixed income after his death. Interestingly though, endowments the size of Harvard (i.e., 30 billion) have the advantage of wrangling lower expense fees for externally managed money and lower administrative costs for internally managed money due to economies of scale.

The other point, which is more controversial, is that alternative investments offer excess returns at lower volatility and low correlations to other asset classes due to their illiquid nature and inaccessibility to mainstream investors. The "low correlation" feature is iffy given how for example, Harvard blew a tire in 2008 - I think it went down 30% that year. The "lower volatility" feature is also iffy given the nature of alternative investment performance reporting.

Also, look up the "Yale Model" for a historical view of where the big endowments evolved from.

shrike82 fucked around with this message at 13:41 on May 3, 2014

z0glin Warchief
May 16, 2007

shrike82 posted:

These strategies are illiquid, volatile, require large minimum investments, and frequently have a long lock-up period.

While I believe that's true generally, the volatility aspect can be significantly reduced (apparently, according to Piketty) when you can afford to spend tens of millions of dollars per year paying people to identify the best investments:

Piketty posted:

It is interesting to note that the year-to-year volatility of these returns does not seem to be any greater for the largest endowments than for the smaller ones: the returns obtained by Harvard and Yale vary around their mean but not much more so than the returns of smaller institutions, and if one averages over several years, the mean returns of the largest institutions are systematically higher than those of the smaller ones, with a gap that remains fairly constant over time. In other words, the higher returns of the largest endowments are not due primarily to greater risk taking but to a more sophisticated invest strategy that consistently produces better results.

I would also venture to guess (though I admit to not having any sources to back this up) that university endowments attempt to stay relatively safe in their investments—no one wants to be the guy that destroyed the Princeton endowment—so a private investor with a similar magnitude of funds could probably turn a slightly higher profit.

I guess maybe the more important point to take home though is that the average rate of return for smaller investors is so relatively low, which combines with their relatively lower savings rate to hasten the growing of the wealth gap between the "middle class" (defined as people not in the top 10% of wealth ownership but still with something) and the top decile.

I suppose that's hardly more than a footnote in the grander view of things, but one I found interesting.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

The statement about alt strats being lower vol is not one that Piketty makes on his own or with any evidence (I looked through his Excel spreadsheets and source data for table 12.2), it's a portfolio management 101 truism which as I mentioned earlier is controversial.

Also, larger endowments actually have bigger appetites for risk and volatility.
To explain why, larger endowments will be drawing down a smaller percentage of their money to fund university operational expenses.
Think about a 30 billion endowment with 500 million of set annual expenses versus a 5 billion endowment with the same level of expenses.
The former will have the ability to take on greater levels of volatility and illiquidity in exchange for higher returns.

On top of that, endowments will have higher risk appetites than pension funds and individuals because their investment time horizon is much longer term (in perpetuity).

z0glin Warchief
May 16, 2007

shrike82 posted:

The statement about alt strats being lower vol is not one that Piketty makes on his own or with any evidence (I looked through his Excel spreadsheets and source data for table 12.2), it's a portfolio management 101 truism which as I mentioned earlier is controversial.

Also, larger endowments actually have bigger appetites for risk and volatility.
To explain why, larger endowments will be drawing down a smaller percentage of their money to fund university operational expenses.
Think about a 30 billion endowment with 500 million of set annual expenses versus a 5 billion endowment with the same level of expenses.
The former will have the ability to take on greater levels of volatility and illiquidity in exchange for higher returns.

On top of that, endowments will have higher risk appetites than pension funds and individuals because their investment time horizon is much longer term (in perpetuity).

I have little background in finance and none in portfolio management so I will gladly defer to you on that first point.

And I entirely agree on the second point, which I think is the main thrust of this: that larger investors can more afford to take the risks and play the waiting game to get the better returns, and thus will come out ahead of the "little guy" (going back to the point in my last post).

I hadn't thought about your third point regarding the time horizon, though it makes sense. I'm not sure how much it applies versus "individuals" with similarly sized portfolios to the endowments, who obviously will never be able to spend even a fraction of that wealth anyway, rather than pension funds and small-scale individuals saving for retirement—but again I don't really know jack about this subject so I should probably just keep my mouth shut.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

ProfessorCurly posted:

So, anyway. I saw the book was out of stock in amazon, does anyone know if it is still being printed/they will have more in at some point?

My copy was originally just delayed with an estimated May 2nd shipping date, now it's completely out of stock with no projected date at all. (I don't want to read an ebook edition because charts).

z0glin Warchief
May 16, 2007

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

My copy was originally just delayed with an estimated May 2nd shipping date, now it's completely out of stock with no projected date at all. (I don't want to read an ebook edition because charts).

I can sympathize with not wanting to read it as an ebook, but I don't really understand why having charts comes into it? Also that sucks I hope it ships soon :(.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

z0glin Warchief posted:

I can sympathize with not wanting to read it as an ebook, but I don't really understand why having charts comes into it? Also that sucks I hope it ships soon :(.

I don't like reading anything with charts, graphs, or other large images on my kindle. Small screen.

MickeyFinn
May 8, 2007
Biggie Smalls and Junior Mafia some mark ass bitches

shrike82 posted:

Yes, active funds tend to underperform their benchmarks after expenses. There's a reason why Buffett says that he'd like the trustee of his personal investment portfolio to be invested 90% passively in equities and 10% in fixed income after his death. Interestingly though, endowments the size of Harvard (i.e., 30 billion) have the advantage of wrangling lower expense fees for externally managed money and lower administrative costs for internally managed money due to economies of scale.
...

This is not an economy of scale. This is simply a very large investor throwing its weight around to get a better deal. 'Economy of scale' would mean more participants in that particular economy, but you are talking about a single institution.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

MickeyFinn posted:

This is not an economy of scale. This is simply a very large investor throwing its weight around to get a better deal. 'Economy of scale' would mean more participants in that particular economy, but you are talking about a single institution.

Eh. Economies of scale can refer to a single entity. It typically means that the fixed costs are spread across more units, in this case dollars under management.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I don't like reading anything with charts, graphs, or other large images on my kindle. Small screen.

I haven't started this book yet (Raising Steam comes first :colbert:) but I read The Spirit Level on my Kindle and the charts in that were pretty easy to read on my Kindle.

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

rscott posted:

I haven't started this book yet (Raising Steam comes first :colbert:) but I read The Spirit Level on my Kindle and the charts in that were pretty easy to read on my Kindle.

I read it on my phone and didn't have any issues with the charts.

Why is totaling up the valuations of things the best way to count capital? I feel like it's unclear what Piketty is measuring and the fact that he uses valuations to total up the capital stock complicates the analysis.

For instance, if your house doubles in value you don't have more capital. You have the same house. If you're renting that house your income on that asset doesn't double because the valuation doubles, and that applies to capital in general. So it's not clear why a change in the capital/income ratio constructed using valuations should imply the change in income share between capital and labor that Piketty assumes as an accounting entity.

That is to say, if valuations increase faster than new physical capital can be created through economic growth, it's not clear why we should expect the rate of return on capital to remain constant (generating a shift in income share to capital from labor) instead of decreasing (generating an ambiguous change in income share).

edit to add: I think Galbraith's review of Capital is worth reading.

wateroverfire fucked around with this message at 17:44 on May 3, 2014

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself
James Galbraith is the Randy Robitaille of Galbraiths.

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

James Galbraith is the Randy Robitaille of Galbraiths.

Haha.

That doesn't make him wrong in his critique, though, does it?

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

wateroverfire posted:

Haha.

That doesn't make him wrong in his critique, though, does it?

It's an interesting critique but I'll have to reserve detailed comment until my copy of Piketty arrives, whenever that is. I am a little hesitant to sign off on his assertion that payroll tax records are just as good a survey of historical income trends as tax records; if nothing else, payroll tax records would exclude all those people who don't pay payroll taxes, i.e., the unemployed, and all income not in the form of wages, i.e., returns on capital investments.

I also have the impression, at least so far, that Piketty's proposal for an 80% top income tax rate is meant as a bit of a stalking horse / overton-window-shifter, rather than an actual immediate policy proposal.

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:

wateroverfire posted:

I read it on my phone and didn't have any issues with the charts.

Why is totaling up the valuations of things the best way to count capital? I feel like it's unclear what Piketty is measuring and the fact that he uses valuations to total up the capital stock complicates the analysis.

For instance, if your house doubles in value you don't have more capital. You have the same house. If you're renting that house your income on that asset doesn't double because the valuation doubles, and that applies to capital in general. So it's not clear why a change in the capital/income ratio constructed using valuations should imply the change in income share between capital and labor that Piketty assumes as an accounting entity.

You do have more capital, though. Valued assets get used as collateral for things like loans. If the asset doubles in value then you can borrow against it again for, theoretically, double the amount of the initial loan you might have taken out against it. This means that your access to capital via the asset has doubled, and he's taking the valuation of the asset to be used as collateral as a proxy for that access to capital.

There's also not a real good way to assess non-liquid capital other than a valuation. It seems like you're saying that if valuations are overinflated then it could lead to an inflated sense of capital. That's true, but good luck sorting out a bubble from regular economic activity without that bubble already having burst.

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

wateroverfire posted:

Haha.

That doesn't make him wrong in his critique, though, does it?

I disagree with the main thrust of the critique, yes. I do in fact think that using price measurements of the capital stock is a perfectly valid approach, and Piketty explains his methodology in much greater detail, and with many of the caveats that Galbraith brings up.

I tend to agree with Galbraith that the New Deal owned all the bones, and that Cambridge carried the Capital Controversy, but I don't think that is the majority viewpoint. Galbraith is criticizing Piketty for acknowledging that the CCC was ultimately deemed unimportant by mainstream economists, and MIT essentially won the long run battle in terms of academic support.

I also agree that Piketty's global wealth tax is far fetched, but I agree with the rest of Piketty's policy solutions, just as Galbraith does.

Mostly though, i think Galbraith is unfair in his critique of methodology. Obviously he could and should write a much longer and more detailed critique. This review, like all reviews, is much too narrow and devoid of detail relative to Piketty's book, and I think Piketty more than justifies his methodological decisions. He does so at multiple points, and he also explicitly states where the return to capital comes from. Honestly, this critique is not very strong.

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

It's an interesting critique but I'll have to reserve detailed comment until my copy of Piketty arrives, whenever that is. I am a little hesitant to sign off on his assertion that payroll tax records are just as good a survey of historical income trends as tax records; if nothing else, payroll tax records would exclude all those people who don't pay payroll taxes, i.e., the unemployed, and all income not in the form of wages, i.e., returns on capital investments.


That part of the critique came across a little peckish to me, honestly. Like Galbraith was kind of pissed that Piketty's work garnered so much more attention than his.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I also have the impression, at least so far, that Piketty's proposal for an 80% top income tax rate is meant as a bit of a stalking horse / overton-window-shifter, rather than an actual immediate policy proposal.

That's not actually Piketty's proposal though he does discuss it. Piketty proposes a graduated wealth tax that starts at maybe 0.5% on fortunes less than 1 million euros, growing to maybe 10% for fortunes of many billions of euros. The actual schedule seems like a place holder to illustrate the concept and not a specific proposal for a tax scheme.

Ultimately the policy section feels like ideological red meat. Piketty doesn't have a way to distinguish between socially useful fortunes that are engaged in entrepreneurial production or financing useful projects, and pure rentier activity that is dead weight - he acknowledges that problem and then goes full speed ahead anyway. He asserts that large fortunes are not useful but doesn't attempt to demonstrate it and focuses instead on the technical and political challenges to implementing the policy.

There are all sorts of factors to consider. For instance, as Justin Fox observes in this older Harvard Business Review blog post, rates of return are not uniform throughout the economy. A wealth tax based on the assumption of accumulation associated with a constant rate of return is going to cause problems for industries in which the realized rate of return is less, or when short term fluctuations cause returns to be less.

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

ErIog posted:

You do have more capital, though. Valued assets get used as collateral for things like loans. If the asset doubles in value then you can borrow against it again for, theoretically, double the amount of the initial loan you might have taken out against it. This means that your access to capital via the asset has doubled, and he's taking the valuation of the asset to be used as collateral as a proxy for that access to capital.

You haven't created any capital in that case. You've gained an asset worth the amount of the loan that is mirrored by a liability for you. Your net capital with respect to the loan is zero. Piketty uses that same logic when describing net public capital - it's public capital minus public debt.

ErIog posted:

There's also not a real good way to assess non-liquid capital other than a valuation. It seems like you're saying that if valuations are overinflated then it could lead to an inflated sense of capital. That's true, but good luck sorting out a bubble from regular economic activity without that bubble already having burst.

Yeah, basically. I agree it's really hard to figure out what values to use.


Grand Theft Autobot posted:

I disagree with the main thrust of the critique, yes. I do in fact think that using price measurements of the capital stock is a perfectly valid approach, and Piketty explains his methodology in much greater detail, and with many of the caveats that Galbraith brings up.

He explains his methodology but where does he disarm that criticism?

Lancelot
May 23, 2006

Fun Shoe

wateroverfire posted:

You haven't created any capital in that case. You've gained an asset worth the amount of the loan that is mirrored by a liability for you. Your net capital with respect to the loan is zero. Piketty uses that same logic when describing net public capital - it's public capital minus public debt.
He's not saying that taking out the loan increases your capital — it clearly doesn't — but that an asset doubling in market value since you purchased it represents a real increase your capital, measured in this case by lenders being more willing to lend you more against that asset. There are other easy examples: if I hold shares in a company with a gold mine, and the price of gold doubles, the company's capital doubles (and so does the capital represented by my share ownership), regardless of whether the company's actually mined and sold the gold or I've actually sold the shares. It's the reason accountants value assets in a company at their market value, rather than at cost — an increase in market value generally means a real increase in the company's capital measured in any number of ways.

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

wateroverfire posted:

He explains his methodology but where does he disarm that criticism?

It is disarmed in the sense that Piketty provides substantial answers to the questions raised by the criticism.

Lancelot posted:

He's not saying that taking out the loan increases your capital — it clearly doesn't — but that an asset doubling in market value since you purchased it represents a real increase your capital, measured in this case by lenders being more willing to lend you more against that asset. There are other easy examples: if I hold shares in a company with a gold mine, and the price of gold doubles, the company's capital doubles (and so does the capital represented by my share ownership), regardless of whether the company's actually mined and sold the gold or I've actually sold the shares. It's the reason accountants value assets in a company at their market value, rather than at cost — an increase in market value generally means a real increase in the company's capital measured in any number of ways.

And, yes, this is part of Piketty's justification for his methodology.

Grand Theft Autobot fucked around with this message at 17:44 on May 5, 2014

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself
edit: dammit quote

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

Lancelot posted:

He's not saying that taking out the loan increases your capital — it clearly doesn't — but that an asset doubling in market value since you purchased it represents a real increase your capital, measured in this case by lenders being more willing to lend you more against that asset.

We're talking about aggregating capital - taking the value by totaling it all up. We have to consider when transactions net out. If I loan you money against your capital, our net capital position hasn't changed. The valuation of the asset is irrelevant. If you sell your asset to me then you swap your asset for my money, and again the valuation is irrelevant to the aggregation of the capital because your gain is my expenditure. Exchanges of capital can't themselves create capital so it's profoundly strange to say that capital has increased because valuations have increased.




Lancelot posted:

There are other easy examples: if I hold shares in a company with a gold mine, and the price of gold doubles, the company's capital doubles (and so does the capital represented by my share ownership), regardless of whether the company's actually mined and sold the gold or I've actually sold the shares.
It's the reason accountants value assets in a company at their market value, rather than at cost — an increase in market value generally means a real increase in the company's capital measured in any number of ways.

None of this is really accurate, though.

Consider two real investments.

The blue line is the Sprott Physical Gold Trust - an investment that basically buys gold bars and holds them. The red line is the iShares S&P TSX Global Gold Index ETF - an investment that holds stocks in gold producers. If you invested in both on March 5, 2010 and held them through today you would have extremely divergent performance because the easy relationship you're proposing doesn't hold. The value of the investments is determined by the supply and demand for each instrument and while those probably...in some way, sort of, at times, or eventually...incorporate the fundamentals there is too much noise to suss out that relationship let alone call it simple.

edit:

IMO, this analysis needs a way to measure the physical growth of capital (addition of new houses, factories, etc) and the accumulation of money independent of valuations.

wateroverfire fucked around with this message at 16:27 on May 7, 2014

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

It is disarmed in the sense that Piketty provides substantial answers to the questions raised by the criticism.

Galbraith is saying he doesn't. I'm saying he doesn't. Can you point to where he does?

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:

wateroverfire posted:

We're talking about aggregating capital - taking the value by totaling it all up. We have to consider when transactions net out. If I loan you money against your capital, our net capital position hasn't changed. The valuation of the asset is irrelevant. If you sell your asset to me then you swap your asset for my money, and again the valuation is irrelevant to the aggregation of the capital because your gain is my expenditure. Exchanges of capital can't themselves create capital so it's profoundly strange to say that capital has increased because valuations have increased.

Are you disagreeing that higher valuations lead to increased access to capital? That contradicts reality pretty clearly. Home equity lines of credit during the housing bubble would like to have a word with you, and that's on like a micro scale. The question is how to represent that increased access to capital in a model. Counting it as a basic increase in capital makes a lot of logical sense. Functionally, because of the way the world actually works, increased valuations do lead to increased access to capital. It requires the person holding the asset to opt in to receive/use the capital, but that is theoretical capital that exists that is available to that person via the asset.

By your pedantry here you could also argue that any asset that isn't cash shouldn't be considered capital because accessing the capital requires liquidation. That seems very silly to me, and doesn't actually seem to mirror the way capital works or is measured in the actual economy. People use assets they own in lots of different ways for the purposes of using the capital contained within them.

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

ErIog posted:

Are you disagreeing that higher valuations lead to increased access to capital?

I'm saying that valuations are irrelevant when you're totaling up capital, because a change in valuation only implies that someone can swap whatever piece of capital with someone else's piece of capital at a different rate. After they swap the total amount of capital is the same. Therefore the rate at which they swap (valuation) is not relevant to the total amount of capital accumulated, which is what Piketty is concerned about.

asdf32
May 15, 2010

I lust for childrens' deaths. Ask me about how I don't care if my kids die.
It's the relative value of capital income versus other forms of income in the economy that should matter for the sake of wealth inequality. So I can see how value would be a valid metric here.

Like there is no intrinsic measure of value, so generally I don't see what else we would fall back on. If people love houses in Las Vegas suburbs and drive up their price, that represents a real transfer of income to Las Vegas home owners regardless of whether it makes any sense or not.

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010
Philip Mause, who is smarter and more patient than I am, has written a thoughtful critique on SeekingAlpha. Registration required to read the whole thing but it's free. He disagrees with me about valuation and raises other points.

quote:

1. The First Fundamental Law of Capitalism

Piketty presents what he describes as the "First Fundamental Law of Capitalism" early in the book. This "law" is that the share of national income going to returns on capital (a) is equal to the rate of return on capital (r) times the capital income ratio (B): a = r x B. Thus, if the value of all capital is $60 trillion and the annual national income is $10 trillion (creating a capital income ratio of 6), then if the rate of return on capital is 5 percent, capital's share of national income will be 30%.

First of all, there is nothing to disagree with here. Indeed, the rule is tautological or definitional like the "rule" that a baseball player's batting average is always the number of hits divided by the number of at bats.

If we multiply both sides of the equation by the national income, then we get an equation that tells us that the income from capital is equal to the value of capital times the rate of return on capital - nothing really revolutionary or remarkable. The form of presentation tends to suggest that the income on capital is somehow "caused" by the amount of capital. In this regard, a bit of further algebraic manipulation transforms the equation into - the value of capital equals the earnings of that capital times 1 over the rate of return on capital leading very quickly to the formula familiar to equity investors: the price equals earnings times the price earnings ratio.

Piketty (I think correctly) uses fair market value rather than original cost or book value to estimate the value of capital in a given economy. By using fair market value, he acknowledges that the total value of capital in an economy can fluctuate significantly from year to year. Investors tend to think of the value of capital as being a function of its ability to generate cash flow rather than viewing cash flow as being the inevitable result of the deployment of more capital. Thus, Piketty's assumption that capital will receive a greater and greater proportion of national income seems questionable. Since the value of capital is generally calculated with reference to cash flow, the argument that capital will become large in relation to national income and that "therefore" a bigger share of national income will be directed toward returns on capital seems exactly backwards.

Still, for reasons explained below, Piketty identifies a tendency for more and more capital to be deployed each year. Over time, if the return on the book value of capital remains constant, this consistent increase in capital deployment inevitably will result in more income going to capital returns. One key problem is the issue of the "return on capital." Arguments have arisen about the impact of increased deployment and therefore availability of capital; more specifically, a strong case can be made that the return on capital will decline as capital is deployed to ever less attractive investments. Piketty addresses this argument, seems to acknowledge its legitimacy but argues that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor will be greater than 1 in the 21st century, and that therefore, the volume increase in capital will outweigh any decrease in return and will ensure that capital receives a higher percentage of annual income.

This issue is important because, as Piketty points out (p. 237), if the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, then an increase in the capital income ratio is actually likely to lead to a decrease in capital's share of annual income. On the other hand, if it is greater than one, the opposite occurs. Piketty spends some time on this issue and argues that the fact that capital's share of income has been increasing in the past 40 or so years demonstrates that it is likely greater than one. I am skeptical because the data is necessarily somewhat sketchy and the result seems to be a bit counterintuitive. This is also one point on which a number of economists have suggested the Piketty is in error.

The assumption that capital can be readily substituted for labor is especially questionable with respect to the enormous capital investment in residential real estate. Stepping back a moment, Piketty acknowledges in the data appendix to his essay "Capital is Back" that "measuring capital is notoriously difficult." He relies on a national account methodology that generally uses fair market value. A huge proportion of privately owned capital consists of owner occupied residences. The "income" generated by such residences is inevitably calculated by attempting to estimate "avoided rent" expense (how much rent did the owner save by virtue of his ownership). There has been a build up of this capital, although its fair market value fluctuates with the vagaries of the real estate market.

The big question is, exactly how will the deployment of more capital in the direction of owner occupied residences eliminate jobs and employment income? In an efficient society, one might imagine the construction of housing near job sites, which would reduce time spent commuting and thereby eliminate jobs for parking attendants, auto repairman and therapists specializing in "road rage" issues. In reality, the tenacious local opposition a developer gets when he tries to build high density housing in one of our prosperous urban areas is worse than the reaction a builder would get if he tried to construct a Center for Transgender Studies in North Waziristan. It is very unlikely that new housing investment will be efficiently targeted to reduce commuting times. Indeed, recent experience suggests just the opposite.

I am not confident that Piketty got this one right. Of course, what is really important for his predictions is not the current elasticity of substitution between capital and labor but what that elasticity will be in future years. And that is inherently uncertain. While I think that this is an issue which deserves further study, I am not really convinced that Piketty has made a persuasive logical or quantitative case that elasticity of substitution is more than one. And, of course, if it isn't, his argument tends to collapse because, by his own admission, the deployment of more capital will actually reduce capital's share of annual income.

The "First Fundamental Law of Capitalism" is really a tautology and doesn't move the ball forward or advance Piketty's thesis at all. It also tends to get the "cash flow"-"valuation" issue bassackwards and misleadingly implies that the deployment of more capital inevitably leads to a proportionate increase in capital's share of national income. The entire thesis rests on a rather shaky assumption concerning the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor.

2. The Second Fundamental Law of Capitalism

The Second Fundamental Law of Capitalism is that the capital/income ratio is (in the long run) equal to the savings rate (s) divided by the growth rate (g) or B = s/g. Put simply, if an economy has a real growth rate of 2 percent and a savings rate of 10 percent, then - over time - the capital income ratio will be 5. Piketty presents an alternate formulation of this rule (footnote at p. 594) as B = s2/g+d where s2 (my notation) is the gross savings rate and d is depreciation.

This law would be a matter of simple arithmetic if capital was calculated based on depreciated original cost or book value. Remember, however, that Piketty (I think correctly) is using fair market value to calculate capital. Thus, in any given year, there can be no guarantee that the market value of capital will have any particular relationship to the amount of capital, which has been deployed in prior years. Indeed, "Mr. Market" is fickle and the fair market value of capital, and therefore, the value of B can vary enormously in the short term as real estate and equity bubbles inflate and pop.

Still, Piketty has a point here. Over a long time, a persistent s/g ratio will drive the level of capital closer to the level suggested by the formula each year, and it is likely that the formula provides a reasonable approximation of long-term average of the B value.

One key problem is that the value of capital, and therefore B, can get very high if r gets low; put another way, stocks can get expensive if the price earnings ratio becomes elevated. At these elevated levels of B, it begins to require a very high savings rate to maintain the ratio.

Using B=s2/g+d and assuming a 2 1/2 depreciation rate (a rate derived by comparing Table 5-3 with Table 5-4 to derive depreciation as percentage of capital) and a 2 percent growth rate, when B equals 6, we would need a gross savings rate of 27 percent just to maintain B. B could get to 6 rather easily if r declined to 4% and capital earned 25% of national income. The table below shows the gross savings rate necessary to sustain B at various rates of return and shares of national income going to capital.

Capital Share of Total Income Capital Return% Capital Income Ratio Necessary Saving Rate
25% 5% 5.00 22.5%
25% 4% 6.25 28.1%
30% 5% 6.00 27.0%
30% 4% 7.50 33.7%
35% 5% 7.00 30.1%
35% 4% 8.75 39.4%
35% 3.5% 10.00 45%


As capital commands a greater percentage of annual income and as the rate of return falls, the capital income ratio must trend much higher and, at higher levels, it requires that a higher and higher percentage of annual income be saved. In this model, the theoretical maximum capital income ratio would be 22.2; at this level, the entire annual income would have to be saved in order to maintain the capital income ratio.

It is important to understand the likely dynamic here. As more capital is invested, the return is likely to decrease simply because higher return opportunities are the first to be exploited. With a lower return, a much higher capital income ratio will be necessary to support a given percentage capital share of annual income. The formula then requires a higher savings rate to support this high capital income ratio. For the United States, some of the savings numbers in the above table are ludicrous. Recent trends are for corporations to disperse earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends or share repurchases rather than to retain earnings, the net result of which is to reduce savings. I am really not worried about the "danger" that Americans will start to save 30% of national income.

On the other hand, some of the entries toward the bottom of the table are not exactly fanciful when we look at countries like Italy or Japan. In the 1980s, when I was running out to the supermarket buying disposable diapers for $27 a bag and would hear commentators on the radio describing how Japan would rule the world because it had a higher savings rate than the United States, I wanted to call in and point out that it is very easy to save money if you are not having any children. Countries with very low birth rates tend to be able to save more money. Ultimately, a country, which entered into a national pact to follow the dictates of Cohle in True Detective and not have any children at all could save a huge amount of money as it descended into oblivion.

Where does this leave us? First of all, a lot depends upon the rate of return. As it declines, the capital income ratio necessary for capital to command a given percentage of the annual income each year gets to be very high and requires high savings rates. Secondly, we have used a 2% growth rate. Piketty argues for 1.5% and this is certainly open to debate. At 1.5% with a 2.5% depreciation rate, you only have to save 4% of total capital each year to achieve stability in the capital income ratio. Again, I think that the countries with ultra low birth rates are likely to have low growth rates so that the problem identified by Piketty will be worse in Japan and Italy.

I really don't think that there is a plausible case that the United States will "save its way into disaster" by saving so much that massive amounts of capital are built up leading to an unacceptable diversion of national income away from wages. This danger may, however, not be fanciful with respect to countries with low growth and have savings rates like Italy and Japan.

3. The Central Contradiction of Capitalism

Piketty describes the Central Contradiction of Capitalism as the fact that the rate of return on capital can be higher for long periods of time than the rate of growth of output - or r>g. He is concerned that this means that wealth accumulated in the past grows faster than the economy as a whole. This in turn leads to the domination of society by that hated group, "rentiers," who live off coupon clippings, rent checks, and dividends contributing nothing to society and devouring and more of its resources year by year.

By r, Piketty means real return on capital and he implies from time to time that the right level is 4-5 percent. As a retiree and author of the "Desperately Seeking Yield" series of articles, I am not quite so sanguine.

First of all, we have - as described above - the fact that a big share of capital is in the form of owner occupied residential housing. The "return" on this large amount of capital is the "avoided rent" enjoyed by owners who save, each year, the rent they would otherwise have had to pay (minus, of course, property taxes, insurance, upkeep and other expenses they would not have had as a renter). It is not hard to find situations in which the fair market value is probably 30, 40 or even 50 times avoided rent - especially in places like San Francisco, New York, London and Paris. And of course, this ignores second homes for which only seasonal avoided rent is appropriate; in many cases, I suspect that upkeep and other costs exceed avoided rent and the net return is zero or less than zero.

The world of true business investments is more complex and doubtlessly provides generally higher returns. However, in many cases, low current returns are accepted on the (often dubious) theory that discounted cash flow from future years should be used in valuation. Thus, much money is invested with the understanding that little or no return is to be earned immediately. Of course, Piketty's formula requires us to review capital's share of income each year so that in these situations, we again have a zero current return on capital.

And then we come to the fact that, in recent years, a huge amount of capital has been directed at "bubbles" at just the wrong time. Money has also been "thrown" at various problems; this seems to be especially popular in the energy sector. The nature of speculative bubbles changes from cycle to cycle, but the trajectory of investor loss seems to be constant. In the 1990s, it was the internet, broadband and competitive telephony. A decade earlier, it was commercial real estate. A decade later, it was residential real estate. Nor is this a recent development. The 19th Century was pockmarked with financial crises created by excessive and redundant investment in railroads.

Piketty might argue that the "new capital" being deployed due to savings each year will be "smart" and will avoid these pitfalls, but recent experience suggests that just the opposite is true. "New money" (depending upon how it is defined) may be especially likely to fly like a moth into the center of the candle of speculative destruction.

I have to catch myself here because I am beginning to hear myself make the argument that the reason Piketty is wrong is that capitalism is inefficient and the investors will waste a good deal of their money, thereby saving the day. That is not what I am saying. Indeed, the bubbles and waves of investment we have seen have served various purposes and have funded (perhaps unwittingly) many worthwhile ventures. The fact that money periodically gets very "easy" has allowed some creative entrepreneurs to "seize the day" and prosper. Just as the tides have sustained the diversity of life along the shores of the oceans by providing a variety of conditions at a variety of times, so does the investment cycle permit the funding of seeds that grow into oak trees and - indeed - sequoias.

I am saying something quite different. The overall real return on all capital including owner occupied residences, second homes, money blown during bubbles, etc., etc., may well be much less than 5 percent. This is especially likely to be true if growth is as slow as Piketty predicts. Calculation of the right number still eludes us (just as we cannot know the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor).

We must then turn to the question of whether the mere fact that r>g is destabilizing as suggested by Piketty. In this regard, I will return to the tables above and add some entries with r levels at 3, 2.5 and 2.25% - all higher than the growth rate of 2% and therefore satisfying the formula.
[fixed]
Capital Share of Total Income Return on Capital Capital Income Ratio Necessary Savings %
25% 3% 7.50 33.8%
25% 2.5% 10 45%
25% 2.25% 11 49.5%
30% 3% 10 45%
30% 2.5% 12 54%
30% 2.25% 13.20 59.4%
35% 3% 11.50 51.8%
35% 2.5% 14.00 63%
35% 2.25% 15.40 69.3%
[/fixed
]
It is clearly possible for r to be greater than g and still not produce a situation in which it is plausible that returns on capital will gradually eat up the entire national income pie. Most of the results in the above table suggest situations in which it would be impossible for savings to sustain the elevated capital income ratio, and therefore, it would be likely for the capital income ratio to be on the road to decline and for capital's share of annual income to decline as well. What is important, therefore, is not whether capital has a return that is higher than overall growth, but rather how much higher that return is, how that return is likely to change with the deployment of more capital, and how much money is saved.

Piketty has simply not made the case that capitalism contains its own "doomsday machine" that will inexorably cause its demise. His book raises important issues and has led to a useful debate. I am sure more research will lead to a tightening of some of the estimates that are now mere guesses. When I was younger, I never thought I would hear anyone make the argument that the biggest problem for the American economy would be that we could "save" our way into oblivion. But if you live long enough, almost anything is possible.

Soviet Space Dog
May 7, 2009
Unicum Space Dog
May 6, 2009

NOBODY WILL REALIZE MY POSTS ARE SHIT NOW THAT MY NAME IS PURPLE :smug:

wateroverfire posted:

I'm saying that valuations are irrelevant when you're totaling up capital, because a change in valuation only implies that someone can swap whatever piece of capital with someone else's piece of capital at a different rate. After they swap the total amount of capital is the same. Therefore the rate at which they swap (valuation) is not relevant to the total amount of capital accumulated, which is what Piketty is concerned about.

I'm glad you agree with UK Cambridge in the capital debates, now I just hope you never rely on production function concepts like elasticity of substitution of "capital" with labour

radical meme
Apr 17, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
For those of you wondering about purchasing the book, I ordered mine directly from the Harvard University Press website on April 29, and it arrived yesterday, May 7. I had to pay full price, plus shipping, but I thought it was worth it. I get to start reading tonight.

Before ordering it, I went to a Barnes & Noble to try to find it. Their computer said they had two in stock but, they weren't on the shelf. I asked a guy at the help desk; he said, "I've never heard of it, did you see it advertised somewhere?". Oh how the mighty have fallen. I mourn the death of real book stores.

Here's an article from AlterNet that I ran across today; America Is Declining at the Same Warp Speed That's Minting Billionaires and Destroying the Middle Class. It's not a very good article; it rambles, has no real focus and is just a bad piece of journalism but, it made this statement that caught my attention:

quote:

America has the most billionaires in the world, but not a single U.S. city ranks among the world’s most livable cities. Not a single U.S. airport is among the top 100 airports in the world. Our bridges, roads and rails are falling apart, and our middle class is being gutted out thanks to three decades of stagnant wages, while the top 1 percent enjoys 95 percent of all economic gains.

This was kind of startling to me so I started searching online. So the thing about billionaires in the U.S. is probably true. The statement about most livable cities is also true, if you're talking about top 10. Note that one of those surveys listed in that Wiki article uses New York city as its baseline for most livable. The statement regarding top 100 airports is just bullshit, if not an intentional lie. Even considering this error, the idea that the U.S. ranks so poorly in infrastructure is amazing to me. It shows horrible judgment in priorities.

radical meme fucked around with this message at 19:45 on May 8, 2014

agarjogger
May 16, 2011
I think the US' air infrastructure is pretty tolerable, in that our planes never seem to go plummeting into the ocean.
I think most comparisons of the US are taking into account how much better things could obviously be here. Anything that casts the place as a waking nightmare is written by someone who has never visited, or by someone who lives here but has traveled, and knows how underwhelming our quality of life is compared to most of western Europe's or Oceania's. The nightmares here are somewhat isolated and removed from the experience of a slim majority of Americans: medicine (a big loving one), poverty, surveillance, a basic disrespect for most working people.
And of course having to get your wallet out eighty times a day because everything important has been privatized. Even most rich guys can't stand the feeling of being tolled and shaken down constantly, just to go about their daily business. But it's a really ordered and predictable place considering our potential for disorder, given our guns and levels of crazies. We talk a lot here about how much better things could be. But if you accept one of our forum's conclusions: that the right exerts an outsized level of influence over American society, you start to wonder why things are not way the gently caress worse.

I think the US takes a hit in some rankings, because of people's incredible frustration with the fact that almost all of our problems are political ones and could be solved in a fortnight. And yet are still regarded as impossible and intractable.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006

war crimes enthusiast

radical meme posted:

Even considering this error, the idea that the U.S. ranks so poorly in infrastructure is amazing to me. It shows horrible judgment in priorities.

Some of that is that things are often used until they fail entirely. There are bulk cargo terminals in the states where gravity fed spouts are controlled by longshoreman gangs pulling on ropes, the foreman yells at them and they pull together to move the spout. That's the way they did it a hundred years ago.

rockopete
Jan 19, 2005

agarjogger posted:

I think the US' air infrastructure is pretty tolerable, in that our planes never seem to go plummeting into the ocean.
I think most comparisons of the US are taking into account how much better things could obviously be here. Anything that casts the place as a waking nightmare is written by someone who has never visited, or by someone who lives here but has traveled, and knows how underwhelming our quality of life is compared to most of western Europe's or Oceania's. The nightmares here are somewhat isolated and removed from the experience of a slim majority of Americans: medicine (a big loving one), poverty, surveillance, a basic disrespect for most working people.

Isolated? From a bare majority, or maybe 40% at most. Life is very hard out there for a lot of people, it just isn't presented to us that way by the media. Besides, you're considered a loser if you think and talk about how bad your situation is in a systemic sense--get out there and start a company, find work, make your boots the strappiest, etc. All problems are individual, and require individual solutions, goes the thinking.

agarjogger posted:

And of course having to get your wallet out eighty times a day because everything important has been privatized. Even most rich guys can't stand the feeling of being tolled and shaken down constantly, just to go about their daily business. But it's a really ordered and predictable place considering our potential for disorder, given our guns and levels of crazies. We talk a lot here about how much better things could be. But if you accept one of our forum's conclusions: that the right exerts an outsized level of influence over American society, you start to wonder why things are not way the gently caress worse.
intractable.

That's the thing, we are living the 'worse'. Our idea of normal is so skewed that most people can't see this. We're not living in the worst, but we are miles away from where we could be, if governed by sane, rational policies. We still allow the death penalty for gently caress's sake, how's that for rightwing influence? And we can't even pass any national legislation on climate change, which due to our position as a world leader may be helping to doom the planet and drive us to extinction.

Yet it's considered settled and ok because, as you note earlier, so few people get out and see how much better it could be. "That's just the way life is, I guess."

e: added URL to climate change opinions
e2: death penalty correction

rockopete fucked around with this message at 01:41 on May 9, 2014

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

BrandorKP posted:

Some of that is that things are often used until they fail entirely. There are bulk cargo terminals in the states where gravity fed spouts are controlled by longshoreman gangs pulling on ropes, the foreman yells at them and they pull together to move the spout. That's the way they did it a hundred years ago.

Granted, the alternative is descending into the Canadian hell where we demolish and shoddily rebuild any infrastructure over fifty years old, regardless of cost, and are losing heritage buildings at a horrific pace to be replaced by generic condominium developments. It amazed me when I went to Portland and the court house fence had a sign saying not to lean on it because it was put up in 1820.

There needs to be a middle ground.

anonumos
Jul 14, 2005

Fuck it.

Rime posted:

Granted, the alternative is descending into the Canadian hell where we demolish and shoddily rebuild any infrastructure over fifty years old, regardless of cost, and are losing heritage buildings at a horrific pace to be replaced by generic condominium developments. It amazed me when I went to Portland and the court house fence had a sign saying not to lean on it because it was put up in 1820.

There needs to be a middle ground.

That is not the alternative. A real alternative is that we spend money where its needed, maintaining existing infrastructure, investing in new infrastructure, and also preserving culturally important landmarks. Right now, we don't really do any of this unless some jerk can make 10 points on it annually.

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Nintendo Kid
Aug 4, 2011

by Smythe

anonumos posted:

That is not the alternative. A real alternative is that we spend money where its needed, maintaining existing infrastructure, investing in new infrastructure, and also preserving culturally important landmarks. Right now, we don't really do any of this unless some jerk can make 10 points on it annually.

He's specifically addressing Brandor's thing about how something that works perfectly fine is also very old. (Incidentally it's a thing kept by labor unions wanting to preserve a certain job)

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