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shiksa
Nov 9, 2009

i went to one of these wrestling shows and it was... honestly? frickin boring. i wanna see ricky! i want to see his gold chains and respect for the ftw lifestyle
that sandwich man has sarcoma

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The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

ESPNU is going to show the Russell Athletic Bowl up next if you want to catch a Teddy Bridgewater game. It was his last game as a Cardinal, where he went 35/45 for 447 yards and 3 TDs.

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



The Puppy Bowl posted:

^^^^Okay, that's pretty loving bad.


I'm saying they weren't great. Most player's whose name I know are better than the average because the average is a three year special teams player. I generally judge a draft on HoFers and faces of a franchise. In that regard 2004 was better than most but not in the absolute top tier.

That's across the whole draft and really more 3rd day then anything. The first round averages about a 6-7 year starter in the league with roughly a 20% hilarious bust rate. The 3rd and 4th rounds are generally where a whole lot of the league's non-LT linemen, and non-pass rushing front 7 dudes come from.

Basically, you'll get a guy that can be called a starter for at least 2 seasons roughly:

Round:
1 - 80%
2 - 65%
3/4 - 50%
5 - 25%
6/7 - 15%

Less then half of 7th rounders will appear in a season's worth of games and that number drops in half again for two seasons. For 1st rounders you're pretty much down to horrific injuries and really loving awful wide receivers keeping players from hitting that mark.

Kalli fucked around with this message at 05:25 on May 8, 2014

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Industrial posted:

2005 had the worst first round I can remember.

1 1 San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith† QB Utah MWC
1 2 Miami Dolphins Ronnie Brown† RB Auburn SEC
1 3 Cleveland Browns Braylon Edwards† WR Michigan Big Ten
1 4 Chicago Bears Cedric Benson RB Texas Big 12
1 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Carnell "Cadillac" Williams RB Auburn SEC
1 6 Tennessee Titans Adam "Pac-Man" Jones CB West Virginia Big East
1 7 Minnesota Vikings Troy Williamson WR South Carolina SEC from Oakland
1 8 Arizona Cardinals Antrel Rolle† CB Miami (FL) ACC
1 9 Washington Redskins Carlos Rogers† CB Auburn SEC
1 10 Detroit Lions Mike Williams WR USC Pac-10
1 11 Dallas Cowboys DeMarcus Ware† LB Troy Sun Belt
1 12 San Diego Chargers Shawne Merriman† LB Maryland ACC from New York Giants
1 13 New Orleans Saints Jammal Brown† OT Oklahoma Big 12 from Houston
1 14 Carolina Panthers Thomas Davis LB Georgia SEC
1 15 Kansas City Chiefs Derrick Johnson† LB Texas Big 12
1 16 Houston Texans Travis Johnson DT Florida State ACC from New Orleans
1 17 Cincinnati Bengals David Pollack LB Georgia SEC
1 18 Minnesota Vikings Erasmus James DE Wisconsin Big Ten
1 19 St. Louis Rams Alex Barron OT Florida State ACC
1 20 Dallas Cowboys Marcus Spears DE LSU SEC from Buffalo[7]
1 21 Jacksonville Jaguars Matt Jones WR Arkansas SEC
1 22 Baltimore Ravens Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma Big 12
1 23 Oakland Raiders Fabian Washington CB Nebraska Big 12 from Seattle
1 24 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers† QB California Pac-10
1 25 Washington Redskins Jason Campbell QB Auburn SEC from Denver
1 26 Seattle Seahawks Chris Spencer C Ole Miss SEC from New York Jets via Oakland
1 27 Atlanta Falcons Roddy White† WR UAB C-USA
1 28 San Diego Chargers Luis Castillo DT Northwestern Big Ten
1 29 Indianapolis Colts Marlin Jackson CB Michigan Big Ten
1 30 Pittsburgh Steelers Heath Miller† TE Virginia ACC
1 31 Philadelphia Eagles Mike Patterson DT USC Pac-10
1 32 New England Patriots Logan Mankins† G Fresno State WAC

The later rounds were pretty uneventful too with the exceptions of Vincent Jackson, Frank Gore, and Justin Tuck. Hell, the undrafted players (Brandon Browner, Cameron Wake, Josh Cribbs, Robbie Gould) were some of the best producers of the whole draft.
http://www.bradybutterfield.com/nfl/sumCAVbyYear_1980-2006.svg

If you look at 1980-2006, 2005 is the second worst

The Puppy Bowl
Jan 31, 2013

A dog, in the house.

*woof*
I saw a stat that I am too lazy to look up but by far 1st rounders are the draft picks that find the most success in the NFL. Second most successful, UDFAs.

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

This game made me realize I forgot that people once thought Stephen Morris was an NFL prospect. Hahahaha

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

The Puppy Bowl posted:

I saw a stat that I am too lazy to look up but by far 1st rounders are the draft picks that find the most success in the NFL. Second most successful, UDFAs.
I'm educated-guessing that's because there are a lot more than 32 UDFAs.

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

pangstrom posted:

I'm educated-guessing that's because there are a lot more than 32 UDFAs.

Right, that stat is almost certainly by-volume instead of by-rate.

The Puppy Bowl
Jan 31, 2013

A dog, in the house.

*woof*
True, but it's still sort of funny. What I wonder about is how much of a first round draft pick's success and longevity is due to greater commitment and patience from the team.

Dattserberg
Dec 30, 2005

National champion, Heisman winner, King crab enthusiast

Sataere posted:

So what happened to Anthony Barr? Wasn't he considered a top prospect early in the process? I swear I haven't heard his name in about three months.

Scouts seem to fluctuate on him. From what I recall, he's very raw and kind of a one-trick pony. Relied too much on his speed and superior athleticism in college. I only saw a few UCLA games the last two years and don't really recall him sticking out.

FWIW, my brother thinks that is who the Lions will draft. He's only missed on two of the Lions first round picks since 2007. I'm not very excited.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

The Puppy Bowl posted:

True, but it's still sort of funny. What I wonder about is how much of a first round draft pick's success and longevity is due to greater commitment and patience from the team.
Yeah I agree. The fact that that much talent is left on the table after the draft does says something about the process in general.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



Dattserberg posted:

Scouts seem to fluctuate on him. From what I recall, he's very raw and kind of a one-trick pony. Relied too much on his speed and superior athleticism in college. I only saw a few UCLA games the last two years and don't really recall him sticking out.

FWIW, my brother thinks that is who the Lions will draft. He's only missed on two of the Lions first round picks since 2007. I'm not very excited.

As long as you don't draft Watkins or Donald!

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Brannock posted:

Right, that stat is almost certainly by-volume instead of by-rate.

Yeah, each team brings in like an average of 15 UDFA's a year, compared to the average of 1 pick per round, so yeah, birdshot and prayer.

LiquidFriend
Apr 5, 2005

There doesn't seem to really be a consensus of where Barr would fit in on a 4-3 Defense and he's incredibly raw to have an immediate impact as a 3-4 OLB.

The Puppy Bowl
Jan 31, 2013

A dog, in the house.

*woof*
Watching ESPNU. Bridgewater is great, scouts are stupid.

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo
As we approach the draft, I know people have a deep dislike for Mayock and Kiper's commentary, so I figure I'd give you a couple other spergs to watch instead:

The Footballguys will be doing a live broadcast of the first two days. Fantasy football guys for the most part, but Cecil Lammey is one of the Broncos beat reporters:
https://www.youtube.com/user/FBGpodcast

Shane P Hallam, noted amateur draftnik, is going to be doing the whole draft live:

quote:

During the NFL Draft, I'll be live streaming commentary for every second and every day. It will be on the main page of https://www.drafttv.com and have a chat room (Twitch.tv/nfldrafttv)

I'll take questions, give instant analysis of every pick (even the late rounds when the major networks are still talking about Johnny Manziel,) and have some fun!

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
Why does the draft have to be on at the same time as playoff hockey

:saddowns:

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo

ROSS MY SALAD posted:

Why does the draft have to be on at the same time as playoff hockey

:saddowns:

Big fan of the Gulls are we?

The Puppy Bowl
Jan 31, 2013

A dog, in the house.

*woof*

ROSS MY SALAD posted:

Why does the draft have to be on at the same time as playoff hockey

:saddowns:

Yeah but it's not like its a contest what I'm going to watch.

Go Wild :shrug:

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

The Puppy Bowl posted:

Yeah but it's not like its a contest what I'm going to watch.

Go Wild :shrug:

Exactly.

Quack quack quack > Old man reading names

the mean lunch lady
Jun 24, 2009

went mad at sea
lots were drawn
Kroenke didn't survive
he was delicious

Quest For Glory II posted:

ESPNU is going to show the Russell Athletic Bowl up next if you want to catch a Teddy Bridgewater game. It was his last game as a Cardinal, where he went 35/45 for 447 yards and 3 TDs.

They should show the Sugar Bowl. That ruled.

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!
Now's about the time when mock drafts start being worth something other than laughing at. Who are a few guys who tend to do well, and have they already released their last mock or do they wait until the day of the draft to do it?

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

Oh man I forgot about Teddy's bullshit 3rd down conversion in this game. I'll have to find that on Youtube and preserve it.

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

Two plays, same drive





Blitz of 404 Error
Sep 19, 2007

Joe Biden is a top 15 president
That TD pass is NFL as gently caress

Febreeze
Oct 24, 2011

I want to care, butt I dont

Quest For Glory II posted:

Two plays, same drive




Very Russell Wilson-esque escape from the pocket there

and yeah that second throw is pro stuff

Cash Monet
Apr 5, 2009

The winning smile worth a 1st rounder.

Bill Polian posted:

“If you have the fourth pick in the draft and it’s too high to take a quarterback there, and you don’t want Johnny Manziel, and you potentially get [Sammy] Watkins or Khalil Mack, go ahead and take them,” said Polian, the former Colts president and Bills general manager. “Now you have a pick at 26, and so you say to yourself: ‘Who’s better at 26? [Eastern Illinois QB] Jimmy Garoppolo? Whoever else is left on the board at that point? Or Kirk Cousins, who knows the offense, who played for Kyle Shanahan, who basically can coach it for all of the new players on offense, and who Kyle Shanahan apparently likes.’

“So why not make a deal at 26 with someone who is willing to give you Kirk Cousins, namely the Washington Redskins. What would that deal entail? Well, it really should be historically two [second-round picks], but maybe it’s 26, who knows?”

Beg for him, Kyle. You're lost without him.

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

ESPNU's schedule:

2:30 AM ET - Orange Bowl (Clemson vs Ohio State) - prospects: WR Sammy Watkins (top 10), DB Bradley Roby (day 1), LB Ryan Shazier (day 1), WR Martavius Bryant (day 2), RB Carlos Hyde (day 1-2), QB Tahj Boyd (day 3)
5:00 AM ET - Fiesta Bowl (UCF vs. Baylor) - prospects: QB Blake Bortles (day 1), RB Lache Seastrunk (day 3), RB Storm Johnson (day 3)
7:30 AM ET - Outback Bowl (Iowa vs LSU) - prospects: WR Odell Beckham Jr. (day 1), WR Jarvis Landry (day 2-3), TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (day 2), RB Jeremy Hill (day 3)

LiquidFriend
Apr 5, 2005

Bridgewaters game against Cincinnati from last year was baller.

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

Woops forgot about this play.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

I like Teddy but that pass is intercepted in the NFL for sure.

swickles
Aug 21, 2006

I guess that I don't need that though
Now you're just some QB that I used to know

kiimo posted:

I like Teddy but that pass is intercepted in the NFL for sure.

I disagree. He put it where only his guy could get it. Otherwise it goes out of bounds, and for the safety to make a play on it, he would have to contact the WR pretty hard and likely draw a flag.

The 7th Guest
Dec 17, 2003

Bear in mind the way the receiver plays the ball is really funky because he gets pulled down and then has to re-adjust.




I think ultimately I would like to see that pushed a little more to the outside but the receiver's route is not very sharp and he misjudges the ball from the start.

The 7th Guest fucked around with this message at 07:36 on May 8, 2014

Grozz Nuy
Feb 21, 2008

Welcome to Moonside.

Wecomel to Soonmide.

Moonwel ot cosidme.

Coldforge posted:

I like this. Endorsed.

(it should be noted that Kawakami is an untrustworthy idiot)

I said all along that the Niners wouldn't do any deal up involving future picks. Baalke likes taking future picks from others, not giving them away himself. That's why I think they'd prefer to deal into the 10-20 range for Beckham rather than all the way up for Evans or Watkins. Gotta keep at least one of those Day 2 picks for Desir or Breeland.

Pron on VHS posted:

Several of my online passwords involve Eric Berry

What's up, using favorite athletes in passwords buddy? :hfive:

PrinceRandom
Feb 26, 2013

From my understanding Louisville receivers were kinda terrible.

Like (forgive me St. Johnny) he didn't really have a Mike Evans to fun toss to.

Detroit_Dogg
Feb 2, 2008
Aaron Rodgers is gay and lame and oh please cum in me Aaron PLEASE I NEED IT OH STAFFORD YOUR COCK IS NOT WORTHY ONLY THE GAYEST RODGERS PRICK CAN SATISFY MY DESPERATE THROAT
I hope some dumb team drafts Teddy before Manziel and then I laugh for the next 10 years as he hatefucks the league into oblivion.

SunshineDanceParty
Feb 7, 2006

One Road. Two Friends. One Ass.

Grozz Nuy posted:



What's up, using favorite athletes in passwords buddy? :hfive:

Whenever I get to chose the question for work passwords, I go with what's purple and makes you sad?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Levi Damien's final mock is interesting. He's a beat writer for Oakland fyi

quote:



***TRADE: Falcons get 1st pick. Texans get picks 6, 37, 68***

1

Falcons (from HOU)

*Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina

2

Rams

Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M

3

Jaguars

*Sammy Watkins WR Clemson

***TRADE: Titans get 4th pick. Browns get picks 11, 42, and future pick***

4

Titans (from CLE)

Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo

***TRADE: 49ers get 5th pick. Raiders get picks 30, 56, 61, 77, and 170***

5

49ers (from OAK)

*Mike Evans WR Texas A&M

6

Texans (from ATL)

*Blake Bortles QB UCF

7

Buccaneers

Aaron Donald DT Pittsburgh

8

Vikings

*Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M

9

Bills

*Greg Robinson OT Auburn

10

Lions

Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State

11

Browns (from TEN)

Derek Carr QB Fresno State

12

Giants

Taylor Lewan OT Michigan

13

Rams

*Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix FS Alabama

14

Bears

*Calvin Pryor SS Louisville

15

Steelers

*Odell Beckham Jr. WR LSU

16

Cowboys

*Kony Ealy DE Missouri

17

Ravens

Zack Martin OG Notre Dame

18

Jets

*Eric Ebron TE North Carolina

19

Dolphins

Anthony Barr OLB UCLA

20

Cardinals

*Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech

21

Packers

RaShede Hageman DT Minnesota

22

Eagles

*Brandin Cooks WR Oregon State

23

Chiefs

*Marqise Lee WR Southern California

24

Bengals

Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State

25

Chargers

Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech

26

Browns

C.J. Mosley ILB Alabama

27

Saints

Jason Verrett CB TCU

28

Panthers

*Allen Robinson WR Penn State



***TRADE: Jaguars get 29th pick. Patriots get picks 39 and 70***

29

Jaguars (from NE)

*Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville

30

Raiders (from SF)

Dee Ford DE Auburn

31

Broncos

*Stephon Tuitt DT Notre Dame

32

Seahawks

*Xavier Su'a-Filo OG UCLA

If those three trades happened, then the valuation of draft picks has completely changed. Also I would probably climb a clock tower.

Chris de Sperg
Aug 14, 2009


Volkerball posted:

quote:

***TRADE: Jaguars get 29th pick. Patriots get picks 39 and 70***

29

Jaguars (from NE)

*Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville

30

Raiders (from SF)

Dee Ford DE Auburn
:suicide:

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Abugadu
Jul 12, 2004

1st Sgt. Matthews and the men have Procured for me a cummerbund from a traveling gypsy, who screeched Victory shall come at a Terrible price. i am Honored.
Really hating the mocks that have us taking Hageman. We're pretty set/deep at the DE position, and even OLB. We're thin at NT and ILB, and I don't think Hageman's stout enough to play the NT spot.

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