Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

BUILD UP EQUITY AND REAP THE BENEFITS

I love how in realtor world they always overlook things such as property tax, down payment, agent fee, misc closing costs and also condo fees.

But the mortgage is only slightly more than rent!

# ? May 8, 2014 00:36

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:23

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

Realtors are commission based salespeople. Anyone expecting them to be impartial is an idiot.

# ? May 8, 2014 00:51

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

cowofwar posted:

Realtors are commission based salespeople. Anyone expecting them to be impartial is an idiot.

I don't think anyone is lamenting that fact.

It's the the shamelessness that is ridiculous.

# ? May 8, 2014 03:06

Jimbozig: Sep 30, 2003; I like sharing and ice cream and animals.

So guys, when will the bubble burst? I pretty desperately want to move in Toronto and ideally I'd buy a home when I do. My neighbour is an rear end in a top hat who tells me that my kids' sidewalk chalk drawings make it look like a ghetto (WTF??) and that I "don't even belong in this neighbourhood". Can it burst by September? That'd be convenient - I'll have a new job by then.

# ? May 8, 2014 17:13

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

I got a good feeling about next fall. Maybe the government'll prop it up until after the next election though.

# ? May 8, 2014 17:16

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Cultural Imperial posted:

I don't think anyone is lamenting that fact.

It's the the shamelessness that is ridiculous.

A lot of them believe. I know a few REALTORS who practice what they preach and own a few "investment condos" and always talk about how they're desperately buying up any property they can afford because now is the time, this was the soft landing, prices are going back up up up. A lot of them are lovely realtors so can't afford to buy locally so own horrible barely-habitable "houses" off in miserable little towns they for some reason think will boom soon.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 17:21 on May 8, 2014

# ? May 8, 2014 17:18

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Jimbozig posted:

So guys, when will the bubble burst? I pretty desperately want to move in Toronto and ideally I'd buy a home when I do. My neighbour is an rear end in a top hat who tells me that my kids' sidewalk chalk drawings make it look like a ghetto (WTF??) and that I "don't even belong in this neighbourhood". Can it burst by September? That'd be convenient - I'll have a new job by then.

If anyone knew the answer to this question they'd be richer than god.

# ? May 8, 2014 17:41

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Baronjutter posted:

A lot of them believe. I know a few REALTORS who practice what they preach and own a few "investment condos" and always talk about how they're desperately buying up any property they can afford because now is the time, this was the soft landing, prices are going back up up up. A lot of them are lovely realtors so can't afford to buy locally so own horrible barely-habitable "houses" off in miserable little towns they for some reason think will boom soon.

I play this game with myself where I try to spot the REALTOR (TM) living in my Vancouver apartment. You can always tell because they're the best dressed on a Saturday morning around 10am, rolling out in a new BMW.

# ? May 8, 2014 17:44

Bip Roberts: Mar 29, 2005

Cultural Imperial posted:

If anyone knew the answer to this question they'd be richer than god.

Literally George Soros rich.

# ? May 8, 2014 18:14

Saltin: Aug 20, 2003; Don't touch

Baronjutter posted:

A lot of them believe. I know a few REALTORS who practice what they preach and own a few "investment condos" and always talk about how they're desperately buying up any property they can afford because now is the time, this was the soft landing, prices are going back up up up. A lot of them are lovely realtors so can't afford to buy locally so own horrible barely-habitable "houses" off in miserable little towns they for some reason think will boom soon.

As long as you can pass the Ontario Real Estate Associations test (50% is a pass, and it is basic level poo poo they ask in multiple choice format), you can become a Broker without a High School Diploma. It's a job that favours the hustler, not the genius.

# ? May 8, 2014 21:12

Kraftwerk: Aug 13, 2011; i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Cultural Imperial posted:

If anyone knew the answer to this question they'd be richer than god.

Ok, say that someone knew when it would burst. How could you use that knowledge to become rich? Buying and selling at the right time? Or perhaps short selling mortgage backed securities if those things are still out there?

# ? May 9, 2014 02:42

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

If you can predict when a bubble will burst, you can predict when it will peak.

If you don't know how to turn that knowledge into a shitton of money, I don't know what to tell you.

# ? May 9, 2014 02:47

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

CP to reactivate arbutus freight line.

quote:

CP has informed resident groups along the line that it�s taking steps �to use the property in support of rail operations.� The corridor, which encompasses 45 acres from the Fraser River to False Creek, has been at the centre of a dispute between the company and the City of Vancouver.

I hope they run empty box cars up and down it all night long, braking frequently, and blowing the whistle at every single crossing (as is legally required, after all). Absolutely cannot wait to see the NIMBY mouth frothing towards a rail line which predates the existence of the City of Vancouver. :allears:

# ? May 9, 2014 03:56

Freakazoid_: Jul 5, 2013; Buglord

FrozenVent posted:

If you can predict when a bubble will burst, you can predict when it will peak.

If you don't know how to turn that knowledge into a shitton of money, I don't know what to tell you.

Don't you already need lots of money in the first place?

# ? May 9, 2014 04:20

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Rime posted:

CP to reactivate arbutus freight line.

I hope they run empty box cars up and down it all night long, braking frequently, and blowing the whistle at every single crossing (as is legally required, after all). Absolutely cannot wait to see the NIMBY mouth frothing towards a rail line which predates the existence of the City of Vancouver.

I was kind of hoping to get a community garden in along a totally barren stretch of that near 16th ave, like they have along 6th near Cypress, ah well.

# ? May 9, 2014 04:48

tagesschau: Sep 1, 2006; Guten Abend, meine Damen und Herren.

Rime posted:

Absolutely cannot wait to see the NIMBY mouth frothing towards a rail line which predates the existence of the City of Vancouver.

We've got NIMBYs here in Toronto who absolutely cannot fathom that you might want to run a lot of train service through a neighborhood called "the Junction."

# ? May 9, 2014 04:52

ductonius: Apr 9, 2007; I heard there's a cream for that...

Rime posted:

CP to reactivate arbutus freight line.

I hope they run empty box cars up and down it all night long, braking frequently, and blowing the whistle at every single crossing (as is legally required, after all). Absolutely cannot wait to see the NIMBY mouth frothing towards a rail line which predates the existence of the City of Vancouver.

City of Vancouver: We're not going to buy it unless we get fire-sale prices! No you can't use it for your core business! You owe us property taxes on that land!

CP Rail: FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUCK YOU!

# ? May 9, 2014 05:17

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Kraftwerk posted:

Ok, say that someone knew when it would burst. How could you use that knowledge to become rich? Buying and selling at the right time? Or perhaps short selling mortgage backed securities if those things are still out there?

Well assuming the Canadian economy would recover in the long term you could make piles of money by buying equities low after the bubble condition.

Anyone who had the guts to buy US stocks during the worst part of the 2009 recession made massive amounts of money.

As Warren buffet would say the best time to buy is not during a rising price environment but when you reach a low point that has everyone scared.

# ? May 9, 2014 05:29

Starks: Sep 24, 2006

Kraftwerk posted:

Ok, say that someone knew when it would burst. How could you use that knowledge to become rich? Buying and selling at the right time? Or perhaps short selling mortgage backed securities if those things are still out there?

I'm pretty sure you can't short-sell MBSs in Canada because they're guaranteed by the federal government under CMHC. You could always short housing etfs, REITs (enjoy paying dividends), construction companies, brokerages, etc. if you knew the crash was gonna be bad enough.

# ? May 9, 2014 05:30

jet sanchEz: Oct 24, 2001; Lousy Manipulative Dog

etalian posted:

Anyone who had the guts to buy US stocks during the worst part of the 2009 recession made massive amounts of money.

My friend bought Apple at $77 and told me to buy as much as I could but I didn't listen.

# ? May 9, 2014 07:17

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Tank car derailment floods neighbourhood in nimby tears.
I like choo choo trains.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 07:26 on May 9, 2014

# ? May 9, 2014 07:21

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

Rime posted:

CP to reactivate arbutus freight line.

I hope they run empty box cars up and down it all night long, braking frequently, and blowing the whistle at every single crossing (as is legally required, after all). Absolutely cannot wait to see the NIMBY mouth frothing towards a rail line which predates the existence of the City of Vancouver.

Weren't they going to run the Canada Line down that, but switched to digging up the entire of Cambie Street instead because of nimbyism?

Oh god, the Shaughnessy Heights Property Owners� Association. Now that's a group of concerned and downtrodden citizens I can sympathise with. :laugh:

The best part is how it's all "OK, you told us 10 years ago you wanted street cars and a bike route, but that hasn't happened and it's clear you were bullshitting to keep us out, so we'll just go back to running freight trains, thanks."

JawKnee posted:

I was kind of hoping to get a community garden in along a totally barren stretch of that near 16th ave, like they have along 6th near Cypress, ah well.

Hopefully whatever plan they come up with can accommodate everything. The ideal would be a slow-moving streetcar, allowing for walking, biking, and some room off to the side for gardens. But I don't think the nimbies would allow it (or maybe they just need to be given an even worse alternative?)

# ? May 9, 2014 09:56

Kalenn Istarion: Nov 2, 2012; Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

Lead out in cuffs posted:

Weren't they going to run the Canada Line down that, but switched to digging up the entire of Cambie Street instead because of nimbyism?

Oh god, the Shaughnessy Heights Property Owners� Association. Now that's a group of concerned and downtrodden citizens I can sympathise with.

The best part is how it's all "OK, you told us 10 years ago you wanted street cars and a bike route, but that hasn't happened and it's clear you were bullshitting to keep us out, so we'll just go back to running freight trains, thanks."

Hopefully whatever plan they come up with can accommodate everything. The ideal would be a slow-moving streetcar, allowing for walking, biking, and some room off to the side for gardens. But I don't think the nimbies would allow it (or maybe they just need to be given an even worse alternative?)

If I was to hazard a guess I'd say this was a ploy by CP to force the city's hand and get them to buy them out or do a long-term lease (rail cos tend to prefer this because getting a new right of way someday would be impossible). They've probably been negotiating a deal for years and have reached an impasse. Unless something's changed about that area that I'm unaware of there's no actual reason to reactivate the line.

# ? May 9, 2014 10:28

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

I love it when municipalities try to strong arm Canadian railroads. It's like they've never looked at a federal law in their lives :getin:

# ? May 9, 2014 12:17

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Nenshi was bitching and moaning about the railroads too, last year, and wanted them to do all sorts of things, and they told him to pound sand. The average Calgary voter thinks the sun shines out his every orifice, but CP disagreed. The weird part was so many people didn't understand why it's so crucial for railroads to not be beholden to municipal regulation.

# ? May 9, 2014 13:07

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

FrozenVent posted:

I love it when municipalities try to strong arm Canadian railroads. It's like they've never looked at a federal law in their lives

Having met quite a few city of Vancouver lawyers. I can tell you they are dumb as gently caress.

# ? May 9, 2014 15:02

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Lead out in cuffs posted:

Weren't they going to run the Canada Line down that, but switched to digging up the entire of Cambie Street instead because of nimbyism?

Good old George Puil, Vancouver former city council and translink board member. He is largely the reason transit on the West side is sub-par.

If I recall, the reason he gave at the time for why the Arbutus route wasn't suitable was that it didn't terminate at the hospital. Apparently people only commute from Richmond to the hospital, and not to go to the downtown core, and certainly not to go to the other hospital that would have been on the other route.

# ? May 9, 2014 15:03

Employee 2-4601: Aug 31, 2001

There was some logic with Oakridge and Langara.

# ? May 10, 2014 18:54

ductonius: Apr 9, 2007; I heard there's a cream for that...

Employee 2-4601 posted:

There was some logic with Oakridge and Langara.

Also:
Vancouver General
Vancouver City hall
BC Women's and Children's Hospital
Queen Elizabeth Park

The Arbutus rail right of way is close to absolutely nothing. So while I would love having a street car line a block from my apartment, it really doesn't make sense for the city until there's a subway on Broadway for it to connect to.

# ? May 10, 2014 21:30

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.biv.com/article/20140508/BIV0111/140509925/vancouver-sees-the-country-8217-s-biggest-drop-in-new-home-prices

quote:

The price of new homes dipped in the twelve months to March, according to the New Housing Price index released by Statistics Canada May 8.

Year-over-year, prices were 1.1% lower than a year ago. This represents the biggest drop in the country compared with all other major cities. Ottawa-Gatineau came in second place with a decrease of 1.0%.

Victoria (down 0.9%), Edmonton (down 0.1%) and Charlottetown (down 0.4%) were the only other cities where prices dropped over the year.

Across the country, prices increased an average of 1.6% over the same period. The strongest gains by far was found in Calgary, which saw a jump of 7.5%. After Calgary, the biggest increases were seen in St. Catharines-Niagara (up 3.4%) and Saskatoon (up 2.9%).

Prices were down 0.1% compared with February. The average new home price across the country increased 0.2% over the same period, with Calgary once again posting the highest increase at 0.8%. This is the third consecutive month in which Calgary led the country in price increases.

# ? May 10, 2014 23:23

Guest2553: Aug 3, 2012

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/05/09/canada-housing-bubble-agents/ made me laugh

quote:

Canada�s next housing bubble: real estate agents...The number of people selling real estate reached 108,706 during the first quarter of the year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. To put it another way, that�s one realtor for every 245 Canadians over the age of 19....We have almost as many people selling houses as making them.

...�You�ve got speculative agents who get their licence on the chance they might be able to sell a home,� says Mr. Soper.
You still have to work under the licence of a brokerage in Ontario but he says �licence warehouses� have been created in the industry where sales people doing a deal or two can quickly join.

�They are really only brokerages in name only,� says Mr. Soper. �They have hundreds or thousands of people, there is no training, there is no management.�

but serious THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT BECAUSE :canada:

# ? May 11, 2014 04:40

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Guest2553 posted:

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/05/09/canada-housing-bubble-agents/ made me laugh

but serious THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT BECAUSE

Man that's crazy. Imagine how it's going to effect unemployment numbers once these guys start going out of business.

# ? May 11, 2014 04:52

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

I was browsing vancouver price drop:
http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2014/05/08/weekly-desperation-score-suburbs-may-7-2014/

code:

 
December 07, 2011	V921735	$907,000	$0	0%
December 12, 2011	V921735	removed after 5 days
September 12, 2013	V1026438	$999,999	$0	0%
September 25, 2013	V1026438	$1,100,000	$0	0%
October 07, 2013	V1026438	removed after 25 days
March 28, 2014	V1054728	$849,000	$-251,000	-23%
April 09, 2014	V1054728	$829,000	$-271,000	-25%
April 28, 2014	V1054728	$799,000	$-301,000	-27%
May 08, 2014	V1054728	$769,000	$-331,000	-30%

$769000 what a deal! 3300 sqft!

Nice house right?

Looks like they didn't finish it. That's ok.

wtf man

All that stuff was straight up ripped out.

# ? May 11, 2014 05:28

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://thetyee.ca/News/2014/05/08/60-West-Cordova-Condo-Experiment/

quote:

When one of Vancouver's most prolific developers proposed 60 West Cordova on the edge of the Downtown Eastside in 2010, he promised it would be a bold new experiment in housing affordability.

The units would be priced as low as possible and sold only to those who lived, worked, or volunteered in the neighbourhood. Buyers would have to agree to live in their units and promise not to sell for at least a year -- a strategy meant to discourage investors.

But some of the early buyers who got a great deal cashed out shortly after the one-year limit, turning profits as high as $74,000 on their "affordable" units. Others have begun renting out their units. According to data gathered at the BC Assessment office in March, 16 per cent of the condos in the building are no longer owner-occupied.

Even to those who stayed, 60 West Cordova now seems like little more than another condo project in a gentrifying area.

"If I were to come in now and buy the apartment that I'm in now from somebody else, I wouldn't find it that affordable," said Sylvia Lim, a resident who bought her unit when the building opened in 2012. "I would sort of see it as being on the average price range for most one-bedroom condos in the area."

Nathan Edelson, a former planner for the Downtown Eastside, said he admires the experimental nature of 60 West Cordova, but sees the end result as "embarrassing" because the developer failed to plan for the second generation of buyers in the building.

"They were trying something," Edelson said. "To try to bring [costs] down toward $250,000, that's a pretty big achievement in itself. How to keep them down was the critical issue, and they didn't quite get there. But the next one, I suspect, will. It'll have to."

Assessed values climb

When developer Ian Gillespie's firm Westbank proposed the project, it took a number of measures to ensure that it would be able to sell the units at rates affordable to people making less than $40,000 per year. Measures included lobbying the city to reduce its parking requirement to only 19 spaces for the 108-unit building, spending minimally on marketing, furnishing units with lower-cost fixtures, and partnering with Vancity credit union to offer flexible financing for buyers.

There are 12 non-market units in the building -- four managed by Habitat for Humanity and eight by PHS Community Services. Prices for the 96 market-rate units started at $219,900, and nearly three-quarters of the units were originally sold for less than $300,000.

Lim said she chose to buy at 60 West Cordova because it was affordable. It would have cost her the same amount to rent in the area as she ended up paying for her mortgage, she said.

"I think it made sense," Lim said. "The price range for this building was quite reasonable."

In 2013, five of the building's market-rate units were resold for prices ranging from $306,000 to $330,000, netting an average profit of almost $56,000 for those sellers.

"Two or three sales of that sort would really make a difference on the affordability [of a building]," Edelson said.

Indeed, these sales have triggered a shift in assessed values at 60 West Cordova. For 2014, nearly-three quarters of the units are valued at more than $300,000.

In an email, Westbank spokeswoman Jill Killeen said this shift was predictable. The developer's goal for the market-rate condos was to attract first-time home buyers and keep out "flippers" and investors, she said.

"It should be expected that assessed values are higher than the original purchase price because the homes were purposely sold for less than market value as that was the goal of the project," she said.

Because of this potential for rapid increases in values, Edelson said he would prefer not to see the city invest in affordable homeownership -- as it did by reducing its parking requirement for the 60 West Cordova project -- unless there's a mechanism to keep prices down. Such a model is in place for the building's non-market units.

First-time buyers priced out

Though prices for the market units at 60 West Cordova have increased, real estate agent Brian Higgins remains a fan of the project. He said he sees a sense of community among residents that gives the building "a unique feel" compared to other condo projects in the area.

Higgins sold a seventh-floor condo in the building earlier this year for $320,000, an increase of more than $88,000 over the unit's original sale price.

The project has been a good opportunity for first-time buyers, he said, noting there are other new buildings in the area where units are selling in the $200,000-range, providing similar opportunities to those found at 60 West Cordova in 2012.

While the building remains on the low end of the Vancouver condo market, some of those first-time buyers it was originally constructed for have already been priced out. A pair of units currently on the market for $310,000 and $339,500 originally sold for $221,000 and $250,000, respectively.

A third unit, originally sold for $281,000, is currently listed for $369,900. If sold for their asking prices, those units would only be affordable -- defined as costing 30 percent or less of a person's total income -- to people making $60,000 or more per year.

The market-rate condos at 60 West Cordova are still mostly cheaper than their counterparts in the nearby Woodwards building -- also a Westbank project -- but their values have been rising more quickly.

A sampling of six Woodwards condos that sold in 2013 for prices in the $350,000 range showed sellers making profits comparable to those found in the 60 West Cordova sales. The difference is that Woodwards units have been appreciating for four years now, compared to two for 60 West Cordova.

As the city plans to add more than 8,000 "affordable homeownership" units over the course of the recently approved Downtown Eastside local area plan, it will need to look at ways to prevent the price spikes seen at 60 West Cordova, Edelson said.

Affordable homeownership is a model that only works if there are restrictions in place to keep prices low for future generations of buyers, he said.

"The real thing is, when you sell the unit, what are you selling it for?" Edelson said. "It's good that you have to wait at least a year, but beyond that, what is [the price]?... The mechanism around resale is the critical one." [Tyee]

# ? May 11, 2014 07:09

Saltin: Aug 20, 2003; Don't touch

Cultural Imperial posted:

Man that's crazy. Imagine how it's going to effect unemployment numbers once these guys start going out of business.

To be fair, most of them aren't working right now, so it's partly priced in. Being licensed and actually selling houses are two different things. Most realtors are not successful. This is why you see things like the realtor who posted in craigslist saying she'd have sex with anyone who listed with her.

# ? May 11, 2014 13:28

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

Guest2553 posted:

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/05/09/canada-housing-bubble-agents/ made me laugh

but serious THIS TIME ITS DIFFERENT BECAUSE

Completely different.

Oh, wait.

# ? May 11, 2014 19:00

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Shifty Pony posted:

Completely different.

Oh, wait.

lmao

# ? May 11, 2014 19:01

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Shifty Pony posted:

Completely different.

Oh, wait.

That's actually a pretty decent graph to use since California has roughly the same population as Canada. Right now we're sitting at 1/4 of their peak numbers, which while bad isn't quite as catastrophic I guess.

# ? May 12, 2014 02:59

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2014/05/employee-pricing-on-rbc-mortgages.html#.U2ht2hOtiBc.twitter

quote:

According to a source at RBC (and this isn�t official), qualified borrowers are now getting 2.99% on a 5-year fixed. RBC�s standard 120-day rate guarantee applies, making this one of the lowest 5-year rates for 120-day closings in the country.

By comparison:

In the broker and credit union channels, 5-year fixed mortgage rates of 2.99% or less are still widely available.
In many cases, this rate is also offered on a discretionary basis for well-qualified borrowers at competing Big 6 banks.
This latest move from RBC should take share from BMO, which just lifted its much-publicized Low Rate Mortgage to 3.29% from 2.99%.

Compare this to best rate that I can get on a 30 year fixed rate in the US - 4.029%

# ? May 12, 2014 15:53

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# ? May 9, 2024 22:23

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

You can't really compare 5 years fixed to 30 years fixed, though. I'd take 4% fixed 30 over 2.99% fixed 5 any day of the week.

# ? May 12, 2014 15:56

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