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Solis posted:Is there no question Tim didn't have a down-home folksy anecdote about? Man he's really going all out on the Gipper's play book, huh
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Jun 4, 2014 02:28
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He's learning. It's the Rob Ford principle, there's no shortage of people who will vote for a "down to earth" good ol' boy, especially when he's promising to save them money. No matter how little his plan has in common with reality, it just makes "gut" sense, and that's good enough. A folksy, plain talkin' man will way out populist Horwath any day.
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Jun 4, 2014 03:16
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Well no one I know even watched, or even knew the debate was on, so I could hardly imagine this changes anything
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Jun 4, 2014 03:44
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Funkdreamer posted:Who cares? The article was basically accurate. Karl Rove may sometimes write an article that is "basically accurate" but you shouldn't pay attention because he's simply going to slant things in his party's favour. Same here. Taking something basically correct and then spinning it to make your party look good isn't journalism. It's lovely punditry. Yes, PCs are doing better among likely voters. But the writer of the article picked a poll that had the conservatives getting 41% among likely voters, which is the highest number I've seen. All the polls show the PCs having an edge, but not nearly that big of an edge. More like 36-33 than 41-29. Here are ThreeHundredEight's projections immediately following that poll: http://politics.theglobeandmail.com/2014/05/30/latest-vote-projection/ And here they are today, just a couple of days later: http://www.threehundredeight.com/ Whether threehundredeight know what they're doing or not, you can see that the newest evidence has caused them to revise their projections back to roughly where they were before that poll. Was it an outlier? I don't know - I'm not an expert, but people who look at polls professionally seem to think it was. Either way I'm sure as hell not going to take some PC crony's word for it. I'd rather read an article like this where they talk about some of the issues around polling without spinning it into some moronic "Wynne is TOAST! ha-HA!" cheerleading bullshit.
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Jun 4, 2014 04:17
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Jimbozig posted:Whether threehundredeight know what they're doing or not
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Jun 4, 2014 04:47
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So Hudak is taking a play out of Grover Norquist's book now, loving  http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/ontario-election-tim-hudak-would-force-cabinet-to-sign-oath-to-ontario-1.2663402 quote:Hudak says all cabinet members would have to sign an "oath to Ontario" guaranteeing they will respect taxpayer dollars, reduce red tape and never raise taxes. (In fairness it does say "without seeking explicit approval of the voters of Ontario" -- as if anyone will ever vote to raise taxes on themselves). 
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Jun 4, 2014 05:19
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colonel_korn posted:So Hudak is taking a play out of Grover Norquist's book now, loving I want to see someone get the explicit approval of the voters of Ontario to disrespect taxpayer dollars. Maybe a Rhino party candidate can run on a Fritter and Waste platform. Also, this will be pure gold when the deficit spikes due to the massive increase in unemployment under an OPC government and they're left with the option to raise taxes or go bankrupt.
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Jun 4, 2014 05:28
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I was unable to watch the debate, but I hear that it was basically Hudak and Horwath mostly-ineffectually attacking Wynne the entire time. Is that more or less accurate?
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Jun 4, 2014 05:56
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Hudak won the debate, easily. Obviously he's wasn't going to convince me or most of the people in this thread to vote for him but he catered to his base quite well without any of the normal Hudak slips that end up alienating his soft supporters. Wynne spent half the debate apologizing and didn't get much of anything done the rest of her time. Horwath had a strong first half, scored a few zingers on Hudak and definitely stuck the knife into Wynne. Awful close. Ipsos did a flash poll, the top line numbers are probably garbage but the way the numbers moved from who people thought was going to win to who people thought did win really does tell the tale of the debate. Who won the debate? Hudak -36% Wynne -27% Horwath -26% Who do you think will win the debate? Hudak -24% Wynne -32% Horwath -17%
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Jun 4, 2014 06:15
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From what I heard on the radio, it seemed like Wynne got a bad start out the gate, then continued to get stomped by the other two. I didn't really expect much different, that is what Hudak and Horwath have been doing most of the campaign and Wynne doesn't seem to have a counter for that. I thought it was interesting that Hudak was trying to distance himself from the job cuts and was talking about supporting EA positions. So is he going to scrap the bulk of his job cuts or are they from somewhere else?
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Jun 4, 2014 07:15
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FowlTheOwl posted:From what I heard on the radio, it seemed like Wynne got a bad start out the gate, then continued to get stomped by the other two. I didn't really expect much different, that is what Hudak and Horwath have been doing most of the campaign and Wynne doesn't seem to have a counter for that. third option: he's lying
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Jun 4, 2014 14:38
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fourth option: my daughter, miller,
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Jun 4, 2014 14:41
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Kathleen Wynne posted:“All Ontarians have a right to expect ethical behaviour from your leaders,” Wynne said. “There was public money that was wasted in those decisions and that shouldn’t have happened. And in the process, the public good was sacrificed in partisan interests.” I can't believe she admitted that. I don't think the debate itself will change much but I'm amazed that Hudak actually put on a decent performance.
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Jun 4, 2014 14:53
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Ikantski posted:I can't believe she admitted that. I don't think the debate itself will change much but I'm amazed that Hudak actually put on a decent performance. Yeah, she should have just told a story about how her grand pappy lost the family gas plant during the great recession, like an honest politician.
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Jun 4, 2014 14:57
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JoelJoel posted:Yeah, she should have just told a story about how her grand pappy lost the family gas plant during the great recession, like an honest politician. Yeah, he's always cringe worthy but he dialed it down a bit and managed to look better than the other two clowns. NDP and Liberals are busy talking about how much they won the debate while Hudak pushed the attack and put up a compilation of Wynne apologizing for scandals. They obviously had this ready to go as soon as the debate was over but it looks a little delusional when most media is reporting that Hudak won by a large margin.  I shared the NDPs to make sure it wasn't broken. The social media people should probably just take that down. 
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Jun 4, 2014 15:17
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Ikantski posted:I shared the NDPs to make sure it wasn't broken. The social media people should probably just take that down. aw dang, it's up to like 250 now. sharen's got the right idea though 
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Jun 4, 2014 15:32
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quote:In Vaughan this morning, Kathleen Wynne said that if Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives win a plurality of seats in a minority legislature, she’ll let them govern rather than try to team up with Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats to hold on to government.
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Jun 4, 2014 16:20
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Pinterest Mom posted:http://politics.theglobeandmail.com/2014/06/04/kathleen-wynne-shoots-down-liberal-ndp-coalition/ Hudak is going to win the election
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Jun 4, 2014 16:22
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Pinterest Mom posted:http://politics.theglobeandmail.com/2014/06/04/kathleen-wynne-shoots-down-liberal-ndp-coalition/ With the Liberal's track record of election promises, this means you can safely bet your house there'll be a coalition. There's no advantage to committing to a coalition now and there's no repercussion if she has to make the tough decision to do everything in her power to protect the children.
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Jun 4, 2014 16:27
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Pinterest Mom posted:http://politics.theglobeandmail.com/2014/06/04/kathleen-wynne-shoots-down-liberal-ndp-coalition/ Ikantski posted:With the Liberal's track record of election promises, this means you can safely bet your house there'll be a coalition. There's no advantage to committing to a coalition now and there's no repercussion if she has to make the tough decision to do everything in her power to protect the children. It's not even this. She can easily give him a chance to govern by letting the PCs form a government and put forward a budget, and when Hudak proposes the Million Jobs Plan if neither she nor Horwath is willing to support it then what alternative is there but another party taking over, hold another election?
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Jun 4, 2014 16:41
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vyelkin posted:It's not even this. She can easily give him a chance to govern by letting the PCs form a government and put forward a budget, and when Hudak proposes the Million Jobs Plan if neither she nor Horwath is willing to support it then what alternative is there but another party taking over, hold another election? I guess the difference would be letting the PCs burn the province to the ground for a year vs having a Liberal/NDP coalition democratically govern for 4?
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Jun 4, 2014 17:03
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I want a Liberal minority that leads to a NDP-PC coalition. Only way to ensure the job creators get what they need to job all the jobs.
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Jun 4, 2014 17:20
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our benevolent job creators will never stand for such a clearly inefficient, red tape filled bureaucratic coalition unless we appease them with our sacrificial tax dollars showered down from the heavens
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Jun 4, 2014 18:03
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Pinterest Mom posted:http://politics.theglobeandmail.com/2014/06/04/kathleen-wynne-shoots-down-liberal-ndp-coalition/
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Jun 4, 2014 18:09
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DynamicSloth posted:Wynne can just say she means she'll let Hudak try to form government first, but she is making one of the hardest political manoeuvres that much more difficult. I don't get what advantage she gains from the statement, voters being afraid of a Liberal-NDP coalition doesn't make any sense her entire governing record was under a de facto coalition. There's a difference to be drawn between a minority government that can appeal to either of the other parties for help in passing legislation depending on what is in that legislation, and a formal coalition with an agreement involving joint decision-making. A Liberal-NDP coalition would give the NDP a lot more power than an NDP-supported Liberal minority, with cabinet positions and more input on the details of laws. Since the election was first called, it seemed that a slim PC minority leading to a Liberal-NDP coalition was basically the only way Horwath could come out ahead from this election. A Liberal or PC majority would be worse for her, while another Liberal minority would just be continuing the status quo. It seems to me that the whole point of having this election is that Horwath wants the PCs to do well, but not too well. Unless she actually thought she could win (how??).
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Jun 4, 2014 19:03
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So there have been two polls since the debate:threehundredeight.com posted:Two polls were conducted just after the debate was over: one by Ipsos Reid for CTV and CP24, surveying 1,765 Ontarians online who watched the debate, and the other by Forum Research for the Toronto Star, surveying via IVR 307 Ontarians who watched the debate. They came up with broadly similar results. This basically matches my own impressions when I was watching the debate. Wynne underperformed, tended to rattle off lists of figures and seemed unsure of how to deal with the record of the McGuinty years. I thought Horwath did alright, maybe better than these numbers would suggest, but she spent all her time attacking Wynne so she really didn't come off as Premier material. She came off as an opposition leader, not someone pushing their own vision. Hudak had the best performance, though I admit I had trouble fully judging that because I'm so far removed from the kind of person Hudak apepals to. Still, he did a good job of pushing a narrative rather than rattling off a laundry list of policies like Wynne or spending too much time relentlessly attacking, like Horwath. Hudak may be a snake oil salesman and he may have been a little robotic at times but he got out his message. Then again, as those polls show, people still don't buy his Million Dollar Jobs plan. I really wonder if this will have any impact on the race. I doubt many people tuned in and it doesn't seem like there were any knock out blows. If anything I think Wynne may inadvertently benefit insofar as a handful of progressive swing voters may be so terrified of Hudak now that they're going to vote strategically. That might even be part of the reason Wynne has promised she won't enter a coalition with the NDP.
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Jun 4, 2014 19:10
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Jimbozig posted:There's a difference to be drawn between a minority government that can appeal to either of the other parties for help in passing legislation depending on what is in that legislation, and a formal coalition with an agreement involving joint decision-making. A Liberal-NDP coalition would give the NDP a lot more power than an NDP-supported Liberal minority, with cabinet positions and more input on the details of laws. Of course there's a lot of room for negotiations between the Liberals and the NDP in what they might be able to negotiate that falls short of positions in Cabinet. I think your psychoanalysis of Horwath is more than a bit off, of course she thinks she can win somehow, she's at 20% in the polls she'd only need to move 15% of the province to win, it's not like she's the Green Party. Her problem I think is she's concentrating on growth outside of Toronto, particularly in the South West where she's from. It's been a rewarding strategy for the past couple of years, the party has increased the size of it's caucus considerably, but of course no left-wing party is going to be able to govern Ontario without Toronto.
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Jun 4, 2014 19:45
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I guess you're right, but I still don't get how anyone who is that high up in politics thinks that they're going to get a 15% bump while promising so little. Yeah we'll govern pretty much the same as the Liberals but with a bit less corruption and a bit more tax breaks for car owners. Like, okay, that doesn't sound AWFUL. Less corruption would sure be nice. But it's not going to generate a huge NDP wave either - they were 15% behind after people already knew about the gas plants. Whatever bump the gas plants gave them was already worked into the polls and they needed to grab 15% on top of that. I'm just wondering where she thought that 15% was going to come from. Hudak at least knows that if you want to change people's entrenched opinions you have to promise big. He's promising the moon, and if he was credible he'd be a shoo-in. The fact that his plan is obvious BS is why he hasn't succeeded in gaining as much ground as I think he hoped to gain.
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Jun 5, 2014 01:58
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Hudak also has the biggest war chest and his operation is anything like (or being directly assisted by) the Federal Conservatives he'll have the most sophisticated voter database, but even he is going to have a very hard time moving enough Ontarians from their entrenched positions to form a majority. Vis-a-vis big promises he also has one huge advantage in that he has nothing to lose, if he doesn't deliver a government to the PC's he is 100% out on his rear end. The Ontario NDP was out in the wilderness so long that if Horwath keeps incremental growth going her leadership is probably secure.
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Jun 5, 2014 02:06
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On a phone, otherwise I'd link but seriously gently caress the Sun. Their editorial cartoon today is rage inducing.
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Jun 5, 2014 19:06
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bunnyofdoom posted:On a phone, otherwise I'd link but seriously gently caress the Sun. Their editorial cartoon today is rage inducing.  Jesus Christ. Who the gently caress thought this was a good idea?
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Jun 5, 2014 19:13
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vyelkin posted:Jesus Christ. Who the gently caress thought this was a good idea? I don't know, but I'm sure the comments will be very interesting.
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Jun 5, 2014 19:14
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They're actually pretty much exactly what you would hope for. 
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Jun 5, 2014 19:18
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 look at those whiny liberals - Donato
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Jun 5, 2014 19:22
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Tim Hudak Beats Woman
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Jun 5, 2014 21:11
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I would love it if that dumb cartoon tanked Hudak's approval in the GTA. That's not going to happen, though. Well, unless Hudak decides to come out and defend it for some inexplicable reason. On the other hand, who even knows where the Sun's editorial cartoons are buried. They might be squeezed into the mushy middle, between the hilarious pun headlines (or paid advertisement front page) and the Sunshine Girl in the back.
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Jun 5, 2014 21:13
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Doesn't look like that it will be too hidden: https://mobile.twitter.com/sladurantaye/status/474609299029635072
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Jun 5, 2014 21:25
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So Hudak finally made it clear he wouldn't fund Phase 2 of Ottawa's LRT plan. The part that would actually link, say, the airport to the system. Or the eastern suburb of Orleans. He probably just lost a hell of a lot of votes around here for that.
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Jun 5, 2014 21:40
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vyelkin posted:
Guys, don't worry, that's not Wynne. It's just sanctioning violence against any one bespectacled who would vote for her. See? Not offensive at all.
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Jun 5, 2014 22:07
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If Wynne complains about that cartoon being anti-women or pro-domestic violence I am going to go fire her media relations team personally.
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Jun 5, 2014 22:12
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