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Suqit
Apr 25, 2005

Stars Stripes Freedom Jozy
(Jozy not pictured here)
Great post Vyelkin.

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stickyfngrdboy
Oct 21, 2010
Top posting vyelkin.

Vegetable
Oct 22, 2010

Great post. We should really pin this somewhere or reorganize it into the OP of a more detailed new fans thread. There's already a ton of resource out there we could link to, such as articles on tiki-taka, catenaccio and other oft-referenced systems of play. Also people could write stuff about club football. Knowing Arsenal are perennial chokers before watching them in a final improves the experience.

e: For all the ripping on Zonal Marking, he's got a great write-up on 2000s tactics here:

http://www.zonalmarking.net/category/decade/tacticsin2000s/

the
Jul 18, 2004

by Cowcaster
Has a team ever won the world cup without scoring any goals?

Honj Steak
May 31, 2013

Hi there.

the posted:

Has a team ever won the world cup without scoring any goals?

No. In 2010 Spain needed only 8 goals (1.17 per game) to win the cup. Italy 1938, England 1966 and Brazil 1994 come second in terms of efficiency with 11 goals each.

tbp
Mar 1, 2008

DU WIRST NIEMALS ALLEINE MARSCHIEREN
Nice post big V

Part 2

There are three players that can sum up what made the tiki-taka style so good (and sort of where beating it comes from). Those players all played for Barcelona, and two of them for Spain. We have Busquets, Xavi and Messi.

Busquets


Sergio Busquets is a pretty bizarre player actually... watching him on the field he probably doesn't seem like anything special, he's not really fast or strong and his technical ability is overshadowed by a lot of his contemporaries. But Guardiola, the mastermind behind Barcelona's incredible run of victories and impressive style of play, once said he was the "first name on the teamsheet".

Why though? Personally, I don't think Busquets would be particularly good in any other style of play. Most teams deviate from their plans sometimes (you may hear a lot about Barcelona's "Plan B" and the failed Ibrahimovic experiment), and to me he's one player that doesn't adapt very well but I suppose that's aside from the point. Busquets is really, really good at retaining possession and gaining it back.

His strength lies in the ability to control the pace of the game, making simple passes to more skilled teammates. There's a video I saw once of highlights that showed him often feinting one way to make an easy pass the other way which I'll include if I can find it again. Point being, he rarely loses the ball and always is open for a pass. A tiki taka team needs someone like this, willing to forego the glory to keep things simple. It's the same reason why someone like Steven Gerrard could never work in a Barcelona system, he doesn't have a cool enough tempermant and often goes for the spectacular when the pressure is on. Busquets is one of the calmest players I've ever seen, and is absolutely excellent at doing his job, however unspectacular it may be.

Second, he's really good at intercepting opponents attacks. He plays in the center midfield, typically behind Xavi and whoever else is there at the time. This means he is in that liminal spot between the opposing forwards and their midfield, and while Barcelona was never particularly good at tackling very hard, they didn't need to be, with intelligent players able to position themselves to intercept passes. Busquets embodied this, and you can see how his ability to always stay where he is needed is his strongest point.

This also bleeds into how his position changes depending on the situation. A defensive midfielder in the tiki taka style doesn't push up with the rest of the midfielders when going forward. Busquets would often drop back, pushing the two center-backs behind him slightly out, while the fullbacks (think right defender and left defender) push up into the "line" of midfield. Having a player with the discipline to do this over and over is absolutely necessary for this style of play, because having those outside backs further up allows for more options in passing and more offensive outlets. It simply wouldn't work if Busquets didn't drop back and cover one spot in defense.

Now finally I do have to mention the fact that he's a ludicrous diver. But, as unfortunate as it is, diving and embelleshing are pretty important parts of this style. Busquets was always very good at it, and I don't really know how he still gets calls when his reputation is at it is. The gif above is an example of this. But, by getting a foul when necessary, it allows his team to retain possession longer, and that's the whole goal of the style. A shame really, he's very good, but it is what it is.

Xavi
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsiwNjITUz0

Probably the man that made this style possible. Without Xavi, I don't think you'd see a tiki taka Spain or Barcelona. Whereas Busquets is always going to go for the simple pass, Xavi doesn't have that restriction. His passing skill is probably the best I've ever seen, and he's one of the few on the team not limited by the constraits that Guardiola put on the rest of them in midfield.

Tiki taka wouldn't work if it was all tapping around the center circle. That final, incisive pass needs to be made eventually. Xavi is and was the best in the world at doing this. His vision is unparalleled, and from seemingly harmless situations he could thread a ball through four or five players to a winger (or Messi) making a run that nobody would think to pick up.

Of course, he is good at timing it as well, and this is what sets him apart again from other more "hollywood" (Gerrard again) midfielders. By neglecting to go for the sublime whenever possible, Xavi picks it out at the perfect moment. The only downfall, particularly for Spain, is that there hasn't been competent people on the end of his passes.

Messi
There's really very few words left to say about Lionel Messi. He just came off his worst season in a long time and he still scored like 40 something goals.

The biggest reason why Messi works so well in Barcelona is because of the unusual role he plays. I struggle to call him a striker or an attacking midfielder, it's always been somewhere in between. Gifted with unparalleled technical ability, dribbling skills, and the best eye for goal probably in the world, Messi isn't restrained at all by the tiki taka system like other players are. He is allowed to drift anywhere, drop however deep or hang however forward as he pleases. And it is this freedom that has allowed him to thrive, whereas less skilled forwards (again, Spain) struggle because no matter how good they were, Torres and Villa and even Diego Costa couldn't really rival the ability of Messi.

I think the main thing to focus on with his movement is his tendency to drop back. Messi will often spend a match shifting between being the furthest forward and back toward the tip of the midfield. This might not seem like a big deal but when you're dealing with someone like him, it is. The conundrum for opposing defenders came from the fact that it was impossible to have someone cover him. Typically, when there is an outstanding talent on a team, one defender will be assigned to mark them as tightly as possible for the entire match. When that player is Messi, there is very little one opposing defender could do because his first touch is sublime and his ability to change direction at top speed is unmatched as well. Any more than one player on him and you leave open someone like Xavi or Iniesta to do whatever they please with the ball, which results in them finding other technically outstanding players (Pedro, Alexis Sanchez) for easy attacks. This is also my reasoning why Messi is a bit worse for Argentina, opposition players can double (or more) up on him but the threats they leave exposed aren't as dangerous.

When a forward drops back toward the midfield from the front line, the dilemma for the defenders is whether or not to track him. If they let him go, he is free to receive the ball if a midfielder doesn't pick him up. If they follow him, a huge amount of space is left in the backline to be exploited by players who love doing just that. And, even if a midfielder does track him, there's often a huge chance they can't do anything when he receives a pin-point pass from one of the skilled midfielders.

Honestly, the success of Barcelona for the past few years can be boiled down to the fact that they didn't gently caress up very much, and had a player who could do this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HqjbTTFr3Y

When you retain possession for 70% of the match and have someone who can pull out goals like that seemingly whenever he wants, it's a tall order to beat them!

Why it died(maybe)
After Spain's exclusion from the WC, Barcelona's lackluster 2014 season and Bayern Munich's loss in the Champions League people are saying that the tiki taka style is dead. It kinda looks that way.

I figure the tactic has lost a lot of luster simply because teams have been looking to beat it for so long, and it rarely happened. The only consistent way to beat the tiki taka style I think is to beat them in terms of energy, and just constantly harass the team trying to retain possession. This isn't to say that wasn't tried and failed, but the recent victories over Spain and Barcelona and Bayern Munich have a few commonalities that weren't variables during the heyday a few years ago.

Both Spain and Barcelona are simply looking older. There was a lot of talk about La Masia and the "Barcelona system" that was going to produce essentially swapable Xavi and Iniesta-like players into those teams every few years, but truth be told I don't think that's coming. More likely, they lucked into a Golden Generation of players that were all immensely talented and happened to play at the same club long enough to have a good enough understanding with one another, boosted by the fact that perhaps the greatest player of all time played there as well. I don't think its possible to replicate.

There were a few times when people declared tiki taka dead in the past but I think the current victories are more "complete":

Inter against Barcelona in the 2010 CL was a great win, but I think it was more a time when Mourinho (a world famous manager) happened to get his players up for those two matches to such a ludicrous degree that they were able to defend very very well for a long period of time. That sort of defense (boosted by the fact that the backline was tremendously skilled) isn't something you can repeat very often, and if for whatever reason Barcelona played Inter again later that season in my opinion it'd be unlikely they'd beat them the same way again. You can sort of see this in the fact that Mourinho (who went to Real Madrid after that season) struggled against Barcelona in Spain.. be it because expectations were different (Real Madrid are expected by their supporters to be a dominant team, not play iron defense for 180 minutes) or because he knew the tactic wouldn't repeat without as good a defensive unit is unknown, point being tiki taka dominated for quite some time after there.

Chelsea sort of did the same thing, but those matches were really weird and pretty much everyone could agree that it wouldn't repeat (I think). Though winning the matches that matter is the important part, and Chelsea did exactly that on the run to their CL victory.

But the three main losses I mentioned earlier (Barcelona this year (CL and La Liga), Bayern Munich this year (CL) and Spain (WC)) seem to spell death for the style. There is a quote going around by Mourinho that sounds like one of those tautological superficial statements that goes something like "the team that makes the fewest mistakes wins the match". This is true pretty much all the time, obviously, but it means something different when taken into context. He's expressing that it doesn't matter how much possession a team has, or how well they pass or win the ball back, as long as his team has less mistakes, he will come out victorious.

That has always been true, and with Mourinho's pronouncement in mind we can come to one big conclusion: the dominant tiki taka teams made so few mistakes and did so many things right that they formed a ludicrously dominant dynasty that the entire world of football had to respond to. And only when their legs wore out it seems did they start to make those vital mistakes, which seemingly spells the end to one of the more interesting and, somehow still, more boring periods of football tactics.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
There have been lots of good effort posts in this thread that should be stuck into an OP with a similar title for anyone who reads TRP after the world cup and is new the football

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe
Has FIFA ever explained why they use such a retarded system for tiebreakers. Why is head to head not emphasized?

Lamont Cranston
Sep 1, 2006

how do i shot foam
That's what these:

quote:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned

e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned

f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned

are though?

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

Lamont Cranston posted:

That's what these:


are though?

Yes, but those are for some reason down the list. Goal differential is considered more important than h2h, which is real dumb.

straight up brolic
Jan 31, 2007

After all, I was nice in ball,
Came to practice weed scented
Report card like the speed limit

:homebrew::homebrew::homebrew:

Ginette Reno posted:

Yes, but those are for some reason down the list. Goal differential is considered more important than h2h, which is real dumb.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWdd6_ZxX8c

stickyfngrdboy
Oct 21, 2010

tbp posted:


Part 2


Great post tbp top drawer.

Tzen
Sep 11, 2001

Waroduce posted:

Could someone suggest like a primer or something before i get into inverting the pyramid. Someone else said it was a little advanced. Any suggestions assuming i know dick about this sport beyond basic position
I finished reading Inverting The Pyramid just before the World Cup and honestly it eases you into everything quite well. It gets advanced, but it starts at the basics and goes from there. - If anything, read vyelkin's awesome post and you should be good to go on the book.

Vegetable
Oct 22, 2010

Ginette Reno posted:

Yes, but those are for some reason down the list. Goal differential is considered more important than h2h, which is real dumb.
Goal difference encourages positive play. Also it gives teams a way to make a difference in their final match rather than feeling helpless to the results of another game.

Syncopated
Oct 21, 2010
The worst tiebreaker without question is the champions league one where away goals count more than home goals in case of a tie in goals or something?

Gigi Galli
Sep 19, 2003

and then the car turned in to fire
Goal difference is a good tiebreaker for tournaments in which each side is supposed to have a decent level of talent and should theoretically be able to keep scores respectable. Head to head is better in leagues and in qualifying when there is a much bigger gap in skill and so someone doesn't win a trophy because they put in 11 past Andorra.

That said not all leagues and tournaments adhere to this suggestion. You can argue for both really, they both have their merits.

Gigi Galli
Sep 19, 2003

and then the car turned in to fire

Syncopated posted:

The worst tiebreaker without question is the champions league one where away goals count more than home goals in case of a tie in goals or something?

If you watch enough football you realize that playing at home is a big advantage, and also that the actual worst tie breaker is penalty kicks.

the
Jul 18, 2004

by Cowcaster
But PKs are by far the most thrilling nailbiting cant watch thing I've ever seen. Here's a recent thriller:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkWTYdS1pio

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Syncopated posted:

The worst tiebreaker without question is the champions league one where away goals count more than home goals in case of a tie in goals or something?

This is because in knockout football it's very easy to go away from home and put 11 men behind the ball and then try and score at home, where you do get a bonus. Obviously this effects both teams but it put the team that plays at home last at an advantage.

Ginette Reno posted:

Yes, but those are for some reason down the list. Goal differential is considered more important than h2h, which is real dumb.

Goal difference is a great tiebreaker because as others have mentioned it rewards attacking play. You don't get extra points for scoring more goals so a team who scores one goal then completely shuts up shop is equally rewarded as a team who scores 7. In tournament football where you only have a few games it makes everything a bit more exciting and, as we've seen from this WC, teams really go all out to score.

Darth Windu
Mar 17, 2009

by Smythe
A question from a Newbie: Might I support a team if I enjoy playing as them in Europa Universalis 4: A Grand Strategy Game By Paradox Interactive?

the
Jul 18, 2004

by Cowcaster

Darth Windu posted:

A question from a Newbie: Might I support a team if I enjoy playing as them in Europa Universalis 4: A Grand Strategy Game By Paradox Interactive?

Support a team for whatever reason you want. The important thing is that you support a team.

straight up brolic
Jan 31, 2007

After all, I was nice in ball,
Came to practice weed scented
Report card like the speed limit

:homebrew::homebrew::homebrew:

Darth Windu posted:

A question from a Newbie: Might I support a team if I enjoy playing as them in Europa Universalis 4: A Grand Strategy Game By Paradox Interactive?
the urge to troll is overwhelming

Earthy Ape Unit
Jun 17, 2014

by XyloJW
Great post on Sergio "Biscuit" Busquets. Sneakily one of the most important players of the last 6 years of club, European and worldwide football and honestly I get rock hard watching Busquets highlight videos.

I've literally spent many hours teaching myself his pullback and its my favorite thing to do in games. I hoot and holler every time.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Has a manager ever been replaced in the middle of a big tournament (mainly thinking of the World Cup but maybe Champions' League)? Someone in the Portugal thread was talking about how terrible Bento is and they should get Mourinho in on Skype, and I was wondering if there was precedent.

Ponce de Le0n
Jul 6, 2008

Father jailed for beating 3 kids after they wouldn't say who farted in his car

Darth Windu posted:

A question from a Newbie: Might I support a team if I enjoy playing as them in Europa Universalis 4: A Grand Strategy Game By Paradox Interactive?

Support your own nation in my opinion and enjoy the football as a neutral.

Thrifting Day!
Nov 25, 2006

Badger of Basra posted:

Has a manager ever been replaced in the middle of a big tournament (mainly thinking of the World Cup but maybe Champions' League)? Someone in the Portugal thread was talking about how terrible Bento is and they should get Mourinho in on Skype, and I was wondering if there was precedent.

The Champions League runs from August - May, so it's definitely not unheard of for teams to change managers mid way through it.

As for the World Cup, it's certainly not something I can remember happening. However there were rumours that after North Korea got hammered in their opening game in the 2010 World Cup, Kim Jong-il demanded he pick the team and formation.

Darth Windu
Mar 17, 2009

by Smythe

Ponce de Le0n posted:

Support your own nation in my opinion and enjoy the football as a neutral.

If I dislike the United States, might I consider France as my home nation, being that I am Cajun?

Blinkz0rz
May 27, 2001

MY CONTEMPT FOR MY OWN EMPLOYEES IS ONLY MATCHED BY MY LOVE FOR TOM BRADY'S SWEATY MAGA BALLS

Badger of Basra posted:

Has a manager ever been replaced in the middle of a big tournament (mainly thinking of the World Cup but maybe Champions' League)? Someone in the Portugal thread was talking about how terrible Bento is and they should get Mourinho in on Skype, and I was wondering if there was precedent.

Happens more than you think. AVB got sacked at Chelsea and replaced by Roberto Di Matteo mid-way through their Champions League run in the 2011-12 season.

jyrka
Jan 21, 2005


Potato Count: 2 small potatoes
Saudi Arabia manager got sacked after 2 matches in 1998.

Mean Bean Machine
May 9, 2008

Only when I breathe.

Badger of Basra posted:

Has a manager ever been replaced in the middle of a big tournament (mainly thinking of the World Cup but maybe Champions' League)? Someone in the Portugal thread was talking about how terrible Bento is and they should get Mourinho in on Skype, and I was wondering if there was precedent.

WC and Euros only last like a month so it's usually better to just ride it out with a manager and fire him when it's over. The Champions League and Europa League last a whole season so yeah the managers from the clubs that participate in it get fired a lot, although usually in England they are not as trigger happy in firing managers as they are in say Italy.

Kodo
Jul 20, 2003

THIS IS HOW YOUR CANDIDATE EATS CINNAMON ROLLS, KODO
About Thursday's USA-Germany:

If either side wins, there's a possibility that the other will not progress.

If both sides draw, both are guaranteed to progress.

If the game is a draw, Germany advances first out of the group, USA second.

If I were USA, here's what I'm thinking: "If we win, we will progress. But this is Germany. We are clear underdogs. We can't afford to run our players ragged in a group stage because we want the most strength available to us in the knockouts. It benefits our team and Germany's if we play to the boring draw. Our only incentive to play aggressive is to secure a spot at the top of the group. If Germany is willing to settle for a draw, we will play to a draw."

If I were Germany, I'm thinking: "If we win, we progress. If we tie, we progress. If we lose, we might not progress. USA are underdogs against us. We will be happy with a tie or a win, but if USA decides to attack we have no choice but to play to a win. A tie gives us the same result as a win and thus there is no incentive to play an aggressive high-scoring game other than bragging rights."

What incentive do either team have to play to a win? Is there a historical precedent for these situations in group stage matches? Are there any major repercussions should USA-GER obviously playing to a draw? This feels like a situation where collusion would outweigh the risks for USA, but Germany does not have a good enough incentive to collude. My guess is the game starts off with both managers trying to read what their strategy is.

Anyway, my prediction is Germany will play for a one-goal difference win and make USA sweat for that tie. In this manner Germany can at least maintain some dignity within the press and the US will have an incentive to draw so the match won't look like collusion.

Kodo fucked around with this message at 05:19 on Jun 23, 2014

Earthy Ape Unit
Jun 17, 2014

by XyloJW

Mean Bean Machine posted:

WC and Euros only last like a month so it's usually better to just ride it out with a manager and fire him when it's over. The Champions League and Europa League last a whole season so yeah the managers from the clubs that participate in it get fired a lot, although usually in England they are not as trigger happy in firing managers as they are in say Italy.

Once AvB eventually gets hired to coach Portugal for a Euro/WC he will be fired during the tournament.

Riven
Apr 22, 2002

Kodo posted:

About Thursday's USA-Germany:

If either side wins, there's a possibility that the other will not progress.

If both sides draw, both are guaranteed to progress.

If the game is a draw, Germany advances first out of the group, USA second.

If I were USA, here's what I'm thinking: "If we win, we will progress. But this is Germany. We are clear underdogs. We can't afford to run our players ragged in a group stage because we want the most strength available to us in the knockouts. It benefits our team and Germany's if we play to the boring draw. Our only incentive to play aggressive is to secure a spot at the top of the group. If Germany is willing to settle for a draw, we will play to a draw."

If I were Germany, I'm thinking: "If we win, we progress. If we tie, we progress. If we lose, we might not progress. USA are underdogs against us. We will be happy with a tie or a win, but if USA decides to attack we have no choice but to play to a win. A tie gives us the same result as a win and thus there is no incentive to play an aggressive high-scoring game other than bragging rights."

What incentive do either team have to play to a win? Is there a historical precedent for these situations in group stage matches? Are there any major repercussions should USA-GER obviously playing to a draw? This feels like a situation where collusion would outweigh the risks for USA, but Germany does not have a good enough incentive to collude. My guess is the game starts off with both managers trying to read what their strategy is.

Theoretically there's and advantage in being top of the group, as you play 2nd place of the other group, and your 2nd plays their 1st. So USA has a possible reason for fighting for the win, and if they fight, GER would need to fight back.

But that's more important in a group like B, where top of group A is likely to be Brazil. So expect Chile and NED to duke it out even though they are both already through. Fighting over who plays Belgium or Algeria/Russia isn't as do-or-die.

Earthy Ape Unit
Jun 17, 2014

by XyloJW

Riven posted:

Theoretically there's and advantage in being top of the group, as you play 2nd place of the other group, and your 2nd plays their 1st. So USA has a possible reason for fighting for the win, and if they fight, GER would need to fight back.

But that's more important in a group like B, where top of group A is likely to be Brazil. So expect Chile and NED to duke it out even though they are both already through. Fighting over who plays Belgium or Algeria/Russia isn't as do-or-die.

Belgium has the potential to be light years better than Russia/Algeria and the only thing that silly country can agree on is "gently caress Germany."

So if I was Germany I would want to be drat sure I played Russia/Algeria. So expect a 1-1 draw or a 2-0 win with Klose getting a goal some how some way so he can finish the last half of his backflip.

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse
How do the first time football watchers feel about a certain player literally biting another certain player?

Stroop There It Is
Mar 11, 2012

:gengar::gengar::gengar::gengar::gengar:
:stroop: :gaysper: :stroop:
:gengar::gengar::gengar::gengar::gengar:


Charlotte Hornets posted:

How do the first time football watchers feel about a certain player literally biting another certain player?
oh it's not like he's done this before, I'm sure it was just an accident :suicide:

Excited for tomorrow! Can't wait to see Tim Howard's face throughout the match.

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

Charlotte Hornets posted:

How do the first time football watchers feel about a certain player literally biting another certain player?

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/10984370/portrait-serial-winner-luis-suarez-soccer-most-beautiful-player This article has been making the rounds on my facebook feed and I feel like that's the second exposure many watchers are going to have to Suarez after watching Uruguay-Italy. So it may strongly influence how people feel about Suarez.

Furious Lobster
Jun 17, 2006

Soiled Meat

Brannock posted:

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/10984370/portrait-serial-winner-luis-suarez-soccer-most-beautiful-player This article has been making the rounds on my facebook feed and I feel like that's the second exposure many watchers are going to have to Suarez after watching Uruguay-Italy. So it may strongly influence how people feel about Suarez.

It's an interesting article and I really enjoy watching Suarez make these beautiful goals but it seems like an outlier because there are plenty of stories of pro athletes making it from poverty and ... they don't bite people when they get to the top. I think it's really strange that he's on top of his game and then he has to bite someone. At this rate, maybe FIFA will require him to wear a mouthguard :v:.

straight up brolic
Jan 31, 2007

After all, I was nice in ball,
Came to practice weed scented
Report card like the speed limit

:homebrew::homebrew::homebrew:

Brannock posted:

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/10984370/portrait-serial-winner-luis-suarez-soccer-most-beautiful-player This article has been making the rounds on my facebook feed and I feel like that's the second exposure many watchers are going to have to Suarez after watching Uruguay-Italy. So it may strongly influence how people feel about Suarez.
these articles are so loving terrible. there's this ideology that all negative actions are excusable because of ones bereft societal conditions. it's extremely off. just because your poor doesn't mean you have to loving do terrible things, nor does it really explain why you do them. you're not a "complicated figure". you're a oval office who shouldn't be playing the sport and should gently caress off and be a ranchero or something. im melting down.

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Vegetable
Oct 22, 2010

Kodo posted:

About Thursday's USA-Germany:

If either side wins, there's a possibility that the other will not progress.

If both sides draw, both are guaranteed to progress.

If the game is a draw, Germany advances first out of the group, USA second.

If I were USA, here's what I'm thinking: "If we win, we will progress. But this is Germany. We are clear underdogs. We can't afford to run our players ragged in a group stage because we want the most strength available to us in the knockouts. It benefits our team and Germany's if we play to the boring draw. Our only incentive to play aggressive is to secure a spot at the top of the group. If Germany is willing to settle for a draw, we will play to a draw."

If I were Germany, I'm thinking: "If we win, we progress. If we tie, we progress. If we lose, we might not progress. USA are underdogs against us. We will be happy with a tie or a win, but if USA decides to attack we have no choice but to play to a win. A tie gives us the same result as a win and thus there is no incentive to play an aggressive high-scoring game other than bragging rights."

What incentive do either team have to play to a win? Is there a historical precedent for these situations in group stage matches? Are there any major repercussions should USA-GER obviously playing to a draw? This feels like a situation where collusion would outweigh the risks for USA, but Germany does not have a good enough incentive to collude. My guess is the game starts off with both managers trying to read what their strategy is.

Anyway, my prediction is Germany will play for a one-goal difference win and make USA sweat for that tie. In this manner Germany can at least maintain some dignity within the press and the US will have an incentive to draw so the match won't look like collusion.
West Germany and Austria were in a similar position decades ago and decided to just kick the ball around and do nothing. Pretty sure it's illegal now to be so blatant. Both teams will probably play conservatively but with 22 players and two managers, all it takes is one goal to unsettle everybody. Also the disparity between the two teams is probably too big for it to really be one of those cagey 0-0 affairs.

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