Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

All I read here is that the CMHC has no profit motive like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so they're not handing out NINJA loans like candy. Whereas the FMs were motivated by creating value for the shareholder~ and also had government gurantees backing their investments, the CMHC only has government gurantees backing their investments :rolleyes:

.

Also, the CMHC is the genesis that is all and good with the prosperity of Canadians blah blah blah

gently caress you evan siddall

# ? Jun 30, 2014 03:34

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# ? May 18, 2024 00:57

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2014/06/27/why-vancouver-housing-is-unaffordable-and-what-to-do-about-it/

quote:

Edward Yang is sad about the city he grew up in. His parents emigrated from Taiwan to B.C. without much money, yet in the early 1990s they were able to afford a small house in East Vancouver.

But Yang and his wife, who earn strong incomes in Los Angeles while bringing up their child, doubt they will ever be able to follow a dream to return to the West Coast Canadian metropolis.

�Vancouver�s become a city where no middle-class family will ever be able to afford purchasing a stand-alone house in the city. I find it sad that the only people who can afford the housing prices today are extremely rich, usually from offshore, and often able to buy in cash.�

Yang is far from alone in his dejection. University of B.C. geography professor David Ley has found great �private anguish� among Metro Vancouver�s ethnically diverse residents, especially young families, struggling to pursue decent housing.

�The generational issue is huge. So many young people are leaving the city. I�m surprised it�s not a public issue in B.C.,� says the author of Millionaire Migrants: Trans-Pacific Life Lines (Wiley-Blackwell), which explores how wealthy Asians have radically transformed real estate markets in Vancouver and other Pacific Rim cities.

The data that Ley collected over decades shows Metro Vancouver has become similar to other Pacific Rim �gateway� cities in the way housing costs have been fuelled by high immigration-driven population growth and foreign investors.

As he works on extensive new studies of housing prices in Metro Vancouver, Hong Kong, Singapore, London and Sydney, Ley says, �In every one of these cities the market is being driven by something other than owner-occupiers. Not just new immigrants, but investors, including offshore investment.�

Politicians in Hong Kong, London, Singapore and Sydney are responding in more proactive ways to their housing dilemmas than the elected officials responsible for Metro Vancouver, Ley said in an interview.

Ley discovered almost a one-to-one correlation over a 25-year period between Metro Vancouver becoming one of the most unaffordable real estate markets in the world and a surge of international immigration and offshore investing.

University of Waterloo geographer Markus Moos and Queen�s University planner Andrejs Skaburskis back up Ley�s analysis. They say Metro Vancouver is an �exceptional� example of how �globalization� can affect a local housing market.

Moos and Skaburskis found, beginning in the 2000s, �immigrants, particularly from Asia, increasingly arrived with established wealth, and many were known to continue earning income outside the country. This led to a decoupling of housing from local labour market participation.�

The Metro Vancouver regional district has released data showing almost nine of 10 newcomers in the past 20 years were born outside the country, mostly in Asia. Many are �circulatory migrants� who invest in property in Canada while working elsewhere.

Ley�s data contradicts real estate developers such as Bob Rennie, who recently argued that Metro Vancouver�s housing prices are reasonable and labour market related, if you �take out the top 20 per cent� of property sales that �are for rich guys and foreign money.�

On the contrary, Ley said, a �trickle-down effect� occurs when well-off immigrants and investors push up housing prices in places such as the west side of Vancouver.

�It�s not as if you can draw a clear partition. The property values in the west side influence the prices in the east side. Demand is just deflected, for example, from Kitsilano to Main Street and Commercial Drive.�

The residents of Hong Kong, Singapore, London and Sydney have more openly discussed soaring housing costs than people in Metro Vancouver, Ley says. And their politicians have been more responsive.

�The racism charge in Metro Vancouver is a smokescreen,� Ley said.

�What�s causing high prices is simply an empirical question, and I�m very confident in my data. If we were talking about high housing prices in Kelowna, we would be analyzing the effects of buyers from the Alberta oilpatch.�

Increasingly, realtors in Vancouver, Sydney, London and across the U.S. are courting such upmarket offshore investors.

Urbanland, a magazine for U.S. developers, describes how American builders have been launching marketing �missions� in Asia to attract �wealthy foreigners� to a fast-track immigrant-investor program known as EB-5.

Most of the marketing missions have occurred in China. �And for good reason,� says Urbanland article. Four of five participants in the U.S. immigrant-investor program (which demands a larger financial commitment from newcomers than Immigration Canada�s recently cancelled investor program) have been Chinese.

RELATED: Is the �racist� label being abused in Vancouver�s housing debate?

Vancouver is the most �Asian� city outside Asia: Survey

How are other gateway cities responding?

Hong Kong recently placed a15-per-cent surcharge on foreign buyers, mostly from China, who have made the city the most �unaffordable� of 360 cities in nine English-speaking countries, according to Demographia, which measures local incomes against housing prices.

In Singapore, which provides much more social housing than Metro Vancouver, the city-state has also placed a �stamp tax� on foreign buyers similar to Hong Kong.

Australia already has a policy that permits foreigners to buy only new housing, and temporary residents to sell Australian properties when they leave. Still, under public pressure, the Australian government this year began launching an inquiry into offshore investment.

London has detailed the spate of luxury purchases by Russians, Malaysians and other foreign investors, Ley said. In response, British politicians are proposing a levy on buyers who leave their properties empty.

What might happen in Metro Vancouver, which Demographia ranks as the second-most �unaffordable� of 360 cities?

It could follow the lead of Toronto, which has already raised development fees for condominiums. And the federal government recently cancelled its investor-immigrant program, which brought more wealthy Chinese newcomers to Metro Vancouver than any other Canadian region.

University of B.C.planner Andy Yan, who works for Bing Thom Architects, joins leading Canadian economists such as Benjamin Tal of CIBC World Markets in urging governments to provide much better data on foreign ownership.

While echoing Ley in lamenting how �whispers of racism� have stopped an important dialogue over housing in Metro, Yan proposes an extra tax on offshore investors who �park� their fortunes in Metro real estate.

Even the free-market B.C. Chamber of Commerce last month urged the province to introduce a modest version of the Hong Kong �stamp tax.� It would raise the property transfer tax for foreign buyers to double that for Canadians buying residences.

While the idea of a higher B.C. property transfer tax is not dramatic, Ley said it could form part of a package of policy changes that may eventually lower the extreme cost of housing.

�Combining a lot of small responses,� Ley said, �can have a beneficial effect in the long run.�

All these motherfuckers are pointing in the wrong direction. Immigration might have some effect on house prices, but the real 'one to one' correlation is between ease of obtaining mortgages and house prices.

# ? Jun 30, 2014 03:54

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2014/06/27/why-vancouver-housing-is-unaffordable-and-what-to-do-about-it/

All these motherfuckers are pointing in the wrong direction. Immigration might have some effect on house prices, but the real 'one to one' correlation is between ease of obtaining mortgages and house prices.

It's just too convenient of a scapegoat rather than admitting that there's something rotten in the Canadian mortgage system.

# ? Jun 30, 2014 04:30

on the left: Nov 2, 2013; I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

Literally poo from a diseased human butt

quote:

Moos and Skaburskis found, beginning in the 2000s, �immigrants, particularly from Asia, increasingly arrived with established wealth, and many were known to continue earning income outside the country. This led to a decoupling of housing from local labour market participation.�

Who knew that immigrants would be criticized for not taking jobs?

# ? Jun 30, 2014 04:32

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Again, I think you guys are too easily conflating the Vancouver story with the Canada story.

The CMHC does not operate an especially lax set of policies in the lower mainland alone.

# ? Jun 30, 2014 04:39

MeinPanzer: Dec 20, 2004; anyone who reads Cinema Discusso for anything more than slackjawed trolling will see the shittiness in my posts

Lexicon posted:

Again, I think you guys are too easily conflating the Vancouver story with the Canada story.

The CMHC does not operate an especially lax set of policies in the lower mainland alone.

No, it doesn't. But real estate prices are inflated in major cities across Canada, and these articles for some reason never seem to mention that a significant portion of the problem in Vancouver could be caused by domestic trends. Once again, we need more reliable data before we can begin pointing to wealthy Chinese immigrants as the main cause of this phenomenon. I haven't read Ley's study, but if this is his primary evidence:

quote:

Ley discovered almost a one-to-one correlation over a 25-year period between Metro Vancouver becoming one of the most unaffordable real estate markets in the world and a surge of international immigration and offshore investing

Then I don't have a lot of faith in the utility of his research to explain Vancouver's real estate market. Connections between, for instance, Canadian industries and Chinese demand for energy and natural resources, or major global developments like the downturn of 2008, could independently have had a major impact on both BC's real estate market and on Chinese emigration and offshore investing.

I think this is just about the fifth or sixth article or op-ed that has appeared in the last couple of weeks exclusively blaming wealthy Chinese immigrants for Vancouver house prices.

# ? Jun 30, 2014 12:32

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

You're right about needing more evidence, and that "one-to-one" statement has zero meaning, statistically or otherwise.

I think it's simply self evident that there are vast amounts of exogenous money driving large parts of the Vancouver market (e.g. SFH, Coal Harbour) though. I'm not saying necessarily even Asian - could be from elsewhere in Canada or the USA. But definitely exogenous.

And it's compelling that all of that has a downstream effect - the upper Income deciles (which ain't especially high, being Vancouver), which might've aspired to live somewhere on the west side, ends up cobbling together 1M+ for houses on the east side. And so on down the line. Add in the CMHC, and a city and national culture that's already obsessed with real estate - and, well, that's Vancouver for you.

# ? Jun 30, 2014 13:31

MeinPanzer: Dec 20, 2004; anyone who reads Cinema Discusso for anything more than slackjawed trolling will see the shittiness in my posts

Lexicon posted:

You're right about needing more evidence, and that "one-to-one" statement has zero meaning, statistically or otherwise.

I think it's simply self evident that there are vast amounts of exogenous money driving large parts of the Vancouver market (e.g. SFH, Coal Harbour) though. I'm not saying necessarily even Asian - could be from elsewhere in Canada or the USA. But definitely exogenous.

I agree that foreign investment is definitely a factor, and very well could be a major one. I just wish that someone would produce a study that integrates both domestic and foreign real estate investment into one model so that we can begin at the very least to attempt to disentangle the two categories and weigh the contribution of each to the current situation.

# ? Jun 30, 2014 13:46

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

MeinPanzer posted:

I agree that foreign investment is definitely a factor, and very well could be a major one. I just wish that someone would produce a study that integrates both domestic and foreign real estate investment into one model so that we can begin at the very least to attempt to disentangle the two categories and weigh the contribution of each to the current situation.

Agreed completely. It'd be a very difficult thing to do though - on a data availability basis alone - and that's assuming you get over the political opposition to such a thing (lol).

# ? Jun 30, 2014 13:53

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

To marks to the guy in the article speaking out about rennie's ridiculous assertion that real estate is affordable if you cut out the top 20% off the market.

# ? Jun 30, 2014 14:49

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

VanCity is now offering 2.5% down mortgages. :psyduck:

https://www.vancity.com/Mortgages/TypesOfMortgages/DownPaymentHelper/?xcid=logout_downpayment_helper

# ? Jun 30, 2014 18:27

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Lead out in cuffs posted:

VanCity is now offering 2.5% down mortgages.

https://www.vancity.com/Mortgages/TypesOfMortgages/DownPaymentHelper/?xcid=logout_downpayment_helper

Pffft, it ain't a proper bubble until the 110% mortgage deals start popping up.

# ? Jun 30, 2014 21:53

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

LemonDrizzle posted:

Pffft, it ain't a proper bubble until the 110% mortgage deals start popping up.

RBC offers a 7% cash-back mortgage and TD offers a 6% one. So not quite 110%, but close!

# ? Jun 30, 2014 22:29

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Here is a great post from one of my favourite bear blogs that illustrates why overseas money is only part of the problem:

quote:

Fun fun I wondered what I could buy today with an inflation adjusted income vs what I bought in 2004.

In 2004:
- My mortgage rate was 4.39%
- My amortization was 25yrs
- My GDS ratio was 32%
- Which allowed for a $220K mortgage

In 2014:
- My mortgage rate could be 2.89%
- My amortization could be 25yrs
- My GDS ratio could be 39%
- Which allows for a $310K mortgage

A rate and rule change allows me to spend ~50% more. That is without adjusting my salary for inflation. Adjusted for inflation I could be approved for a mortgage of $370K, or close to double what I could afford a decade ago.

This is why the bull run has legs, yet cannot run forever.

# ? Jun 30, 2014 23:47

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Franks Happy Place posted:

Here is a great post from one of my favourite bear blogs that illustrates why overseas money is only part of the problem:

Pretty much the only way to keep homes "affordable" in a bubble is to have ever decreasing credit costs.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 00:54

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/30/hgtv-effect-pushes-home-renovation-spending-to-record-63-billion/

quote:

TORONTO � It could be just the impact of all those home-renovation television programs, but Canadians are fixing up their properties like never before, according to a new report.

5 questions to help you decide whether to rent or buy a home

While there�s no universal �right� answer, start your decision process by asking yourself these five questions
�Willingness, at least in part, can be attributed to what is sometimes referred to as the HGTV effect,� Toronto-based real estate consultants Altus Group said, referring to the television station HGTV Canada that launched in 1997 with an emphasis on home renovation. �Many homeowners did not know how badly they really wanted new designer kitchens until then.�

Renovation spending has been rising for 15 straight years and reached a record $63.4-billion in 2013, which accounted for 3.7% of total Canadian gross domestic product, Altus said. More money is being spent on renovation than on all new home construction.

It�s not just leaky roofs that are part of that spending; three of every four renovation dollars are being spent on real home improvement. In real dollar terms, renovation spending jumped 2.7% in 2013.

Altus is predicting about 3% growth in real dollar terms in renovation spending both this year and next as homeowners turn to sprucing up their abodes in the face of record home prices.

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�Broad economic and employment growth in 2014 are positive for higher disposable income. This, combined with still robust home sales and continued low interest rates, should support further growth,� Altus said in the report, released Monday.

Canada has a larger housing stock than it did a decade ago, which is partly why renovation spending has more than doubled since the latter 1990s. But Altus estimates only 25% of the growth is due to the greater number of houses, with three quarters of that attributable to people just spending more per housing unit.

In the past five years, renovation per occupied housing unit was about $4,600 per year, up from $2,500 per year from the 1994-1998 period.

Home owners pulled money out of their homes only to put it right back in
Altus said there is a �willingness and ability� to undertake renovation work.

The willingness may come from seeing fancy kitchens on TV, but the ability to pay for these renovations can be attributed to lower interest rates and rising home values that have left homeowners with more equity to tap into for a substantial upgrade.

�Essentially, home owners pulled money out of their homes only to put it right back in,� said Altus, which found mortgage financing and home equity lines of credit were the most common method to get cash for a project.

However, Altus also noted statistics from Bank of Canada show many people have the cash to do projects without borrowing. From 1999-2010, borrowing only accounted for 25% of all renovation work.

Alberta is expected to lead the pack in renovation spending in 2014 and 2015 with the Altus survey indicating a growth in spending of 5% each year in the province.

On a dollar level, Ontario and Quebec still account for most of the activity in the country with two of every three renovation dollars spent in those provinces. Ontario spending is forecast to grow 2.6% next year, just below the 2.9% national average.

gently caress all of you profligate motherfuckers

# ? Jul 1, 2014 02:46

Kafka Esq.: Jan 1, 2005; "If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

I'm kind of shocked by the idea that only 25% of the people renovating are using home equity to finance it, but, having dabbled in the kitchen business for years, it's not really surprising how far it has risen. The GTA had a two year period where the amount of kitchen related businesses doubled, whether it was faucets, appliances, floors, cabinets, cookbooks or fancy copper pans. In fact, the glut of new businesses in the market actually led to a big convention being held at the Living Arts Centre in Mississauga, in addition to the Home Show that usually goes on in Toronto. Two gigantic conventions within rock throwing distance of each other.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 10:58

Bleu: Jul 19, 2006

Do that many Canadians even cook? All I see are statistics and reports that say that Median Modern Two-Income Household barely cooks at all. Like this one I found in a few minutes: http://www.ats-sea.agr.gc.ca/inter/5527-eng.htm

# ? Jul 1, 2014 13:35

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://blogs.reuters.com/financial-...tral-bank-says/

quote:

Canada’s financial system vulnerable to overheated housing market, central bank says

By Guest Contributor

JULY 1, 2014

PrintinShare

BANK OF CANADA | CANADIAN SECURITIES ADMINISTRATORS (CSA) | CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS | FINANCIAL RISK |HOUSING MARKET | SYSTEMIC RISK

By Daniel Seleanu, Compliance Complete

TORONTO, July 1, 2014 (Thomson Reuters Accelus) - Canada’s overheated housing market represents a significant risk to the stability of its financial system, the country’s central bank has warned.

In its recently released Financial System Review (FSR) (PDF), the Bank of Canada (BOC) warned that while the system was stable overall, it remained vulnerable to several risks that could trigger a disorderly market correction. The economic and financial consequences of such a correction would be severe, the BOC predicted.

The FSR describes four key risks to Canada’s financial system, all of which ultimately relate to housing:

A sharp correction in housing prices resulting from a large macro-economic shock. The BOC believes this scenario carries elevated risk, low probability, and severe potential impact.A sharp increase in long-term interest rates globally, including in Canada, likely resulting from an overshoot in US rates. The BOC believes this scenario carries moderate risk, low probability, and moderately severe potential impact.Stress emanating from China and other emerging market economies that could be triggered by a severe financial disruption in China, associated reversal of Chinese economic growth, and the subsequent, widespread impact on global economic and financial systems. The BOC believes this scenario carries elevated risk, moderate probability, and moderately severe potential impact.

Financial stress from Europe with global consequences, possibly caused by market concern over banking sector health or a sudden economic shock related to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Russia. The BOC believes this scenario carries elevated risk, moderate probability, and moderately severe potential impact.

Risk 1: Housing market correction

The risk of precipitously declining home prices was the primary focus of the BOC’s financial stability report. “A serious, widespread correction in house prices resulting from a sharp increase in unemployment is the most important domestic financial system risk,” it said. Despite judging the probability of such an outcome to be “low,” the BOC stressed that the severe economic and financial impact justified an “elevated” risk rating.

Underscoring the centrality of this risk, the BOC explained that the other three could each act as triggers for a housing correction. Macroeconomic shocks from rapidly-rising US interest rates, Chinese economic stress, or a European financial crisis would cause a sharp increase in Canadian unemployment and thus sharply reduce the ability of Canadians to service their debts, the BOC explained. It added that stretched valuations in certain housing segments, namely Toronto condominiums, combined with worrying levels of household indebtedness, make Canada vulnerable to shocks of this nature.

“Given the importance of housing to the Canadian economy and financial system, the impact of such a situation would be widespread, and there could be significant adverse feedback between economic and financial conditions that would amplify its impact,” the FSR said.

The possibility, albeit relatively low, for a persistent and substantial decline in housing prices would impact the financial system through several channels, including financial sector links to the housing market, broader financial market impacts, and negative feedback from the economy. The BOC noted that Canadian financial institutions would face simultaneous declining revenues and increased loan losses. Without singling out any particular institutions, the BOC warned that mortgage and consumer debt defaults could cause especially severe losses for “certain institutions and mortgage insurers”.

Risk 2: Interest rate spike

The second key financial system risk outlined by the BOC was that from significantly higher interest rates resulting from “an overshoot in US long-term interest rates triggered by a reassessment by markets of US monetary policy”. While observing a “relatively smooth” reaction to the Federal Reserve’s tapering of asset purchases, and predicting a lower probability of future US monetary policy adjustments, the BOC warned that a jump in US long-term interest rates would cause a “moderately severe” impact on Canada. That impact, it said, would travel through multiple channels and be driven by wider global financial and economic consequences.

“Unexpected changes to the market perceptions of the path of US monetary policy could trigger a sudden rise in global term premiums, surges in market volatility, and sell-offs across asset classes, all of which could be exacerbated by the rapid unwinding of positions and structural changes in liquidity in some market segments. Close correlations of global term premiums would immediately transmit the interest rate shock to Canada, and Canadian investors could incur significant losses,” the BOC explained.

Due to strong integration across global financial markets, movements in the United States would likely be replicated in Canada, characterised by increased volatility and widespread asset devaluation. “Aside from sustaining losses, it could also negatively affect investor confidence and lead to a significant increase in market funding costs for Canadian financial and non-financial corporations,” the BOC said. It added that if US economic growth were to weaken significantly as a result of tighter financial conditions, then Canadian banks active in the United States could experience related losses.

Reiterating the threat of a housing correction, the report also stressed that a sudden, conservative shift in US monetary policy would put upward pressure on Canadian long-term interest rates, which would increase debt-service costs for Canadian households, potentially leading to a rise in mortgage defaults and downward pressure on residential real estate prices.

Risk 3: Stress from China and other emerging markets

Financial and economic stress emanating from serious financial disruptions in China, leading to a significant slowdown in Chinese economic growth, represents another key systemic risk for Canada. The BOC stressed that the probability of this risk materializing had increased over the last six months, due to growing vulnerabilities in China’s financial system. Major stress in China would have widespread repercussions on global economies and financial systems, the report said, adding that it would cause a moderately severe impact on Canada.

“The trigger for this risk could be a series of defaults that begin in the shadow banking sector and rapidly spread across the Chinese financial system, leading to a deep credit squeeze that, in turn, could sharply reduce economic growth in China. The resulting decline in global commodity demand and prices would be transmitted back to Canada through its extensive exposures to the commodity sector,” the FSR said.

As with the other risks, the BOC warned that Chinese economic decline could trigger a Canadian housing market correction, due to plunging global aggregate demand and subsequent high unemployment. Additionally, it noted that Canada’s significant exposure to global commodity demand and prices would be a key channel for transmitting the contagion to the Canadian financial system.

“Weaker demand for Canadian exports from other countries, in addition to lower commodity prices, could also induce extensive commercial loan losses at Canadian banks and other financial sector entities,” the report said.

“Canadian regional economies that depend on the commodity or export sectors would experience a serious downturn that could lead to a correction in regional housing and real estate markets. Smaller financial sector entities with assets highly concentrated in these regions, could experience a significant level of default that could trigger failures.”

The BOC also emphasised that Canadian equity markets would likely experience related declines that were disproportionate to global peers, due especially to the significant weight of the commodity sector on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). “Feedback between adverse financial system and economic events would then overlap,” the report predicted.

Risk 4: Eurozone stress

Finally, the BOC highlighted the key risk posed by financial stress from a renewed Eurozone crisis. However, while noting that significant vulnerabilities remained in the European financial system, the BOC observed positive developments since the end of 2013, which it said reduced this risk from “high” to “elevated”.

Shifting market views regarding the adequacy of European bank-balance sheet repairs, or a political shock from Russia and Ukraine, would be transferred to Canada through its exposure to financial markets, the report said. Additionally, it stressed that Canada’s economy could be further affected through trade channels, “and if the impact was sufficiently severe, it could trigger a correction in house prices”.

According to the BOC, there is a moderate probability that financial stress in Europe could be triggered by, for example, sudden investor insecurity regarding the health of the banking sector or a reversal of economic recovery that would negatively impact banks and sovereigns. This could cause a dangerous debt spiral that would spread across the financial system, which would then have broad repercussions for Canada, the report explained.

The FSR predicted that a European financial crisis would induce a “flight to safety,” a widespread retrenchment from risk, and a broad repricing of assets. In keeping with the theme of real estate vulnerability, the report warned: “Such widespread effects on Canada’s financial system and economy could also trigger a sharp correction in the Canadian housing market.

(This article was produced by the Compliance Complete service of Thomson Reuters Accelus. Compliance Complete provides a single source for regulatory news, analysis, rules and developments, with global coverage of more than 400 regulators and exchanges. Follow Accelus compliance news on Twitter: @GRC_Accelus)

So all of these things are of low to medium risk of happening. Everything is ok and none of this will probably ever happen. Thanks Bank of Canada.

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Jul 1, 2014

# ? Jul 1, 2014 14:01

Kafka Esq.: Jan 1, 2005; "If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://blogs.reuters.com/financial-...tral-bank-says/

So all of these things are of low to medium risk of happening. Everything is ok and none of this will probably ever happen. Thanks Bank of Canada.

You read moderate probability as a prediction it won't happen?

They're evaluating potential threats to the economy in the next year, none of those risks are guaranteed to happen by then.

Seriously, this document is a red flag to anyone paying attention, but instead of START PANICKING NOW at the bottom they put please govern yourselves accordingly. I don't think that's out of line.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 14:37

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Kafka Esq. posted:

You read moderate probability as a prediction it won't happen?

They're evaluating potential threats to the economy in the next year, none of those risks are guaranteed to happen by then.

Seriously, this document is a red flag to anyone paying attention, but instead of START PANICKING NOW at the bottom they put please govern yourselves accordingly. I don't think that's out of line.

Most of these things will happen. This isn't a question of probability, it's a question of how soon.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 15:48

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

I've been saying this for about two years, BC's economy is going to experience some hilarious unforeseen economic shocks once weed becomes legal in Washington state. That day is coming this weekend. Enjoy your home renovations retards.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 16:21

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Cultural Imperial posted:

I've been saying this for about two years, BC's economy is going to experience some hilarious unforeseen economic shocks once weed becomes legal in Washington state. That day is coming this weekend. Enjoy your home renovations retards.

Eh, we still supply most of Canada. Maybe we'll pivot and start running it to China next.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 16:26

Rutibex: Sep 9, 2001; by Fluffdaddy

Bleu posted:

Do that many Canadians even cook? All I see are statistics and reports that say that Median Modern Two-Income Household barely cooks at all. Like this one I found in a few minutes: http://www.ats-sea.agr.gc.ca/inter/5527-eng.htm

Anecdotal but 2 friends I know "made it" they both have very nice jobs and renovated their kitchens. Granite countertops, brand new gas oven, super expensive pots and pans, professional knives (I love these), the works. They both eat out 6 days a week.

I can't afford to eat out; I cook every day. I use a 30 year old electric stove, with plastic countertops and a $10 walmart knife set :negative:

# ? Jul 1, 2014 16:46

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Total anecdote, but when I moved here from the UK as a teenager, I can still remember being struck by how lovely Canadian kitchens (lower mainland, admittedly outside of Vancouver for the most part) belonging to my friends and family here were compared to ones most people had back in the UK. Crappy cabinets and countertops, ancient electric ranges, etc, seemed par for the course.

So maybe Canada was simply a bit behind the curve, and has caught up. Obviously the paper real estate gains helps, I imagine.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 16:52

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

I have had a string of roommates pushing 30 who are mystified by how to use a dishwasher, an oven, or take out the garbage. The "Canadian Man/Woman-child" who can barely care for themselves and relies on eating out to survive is alive and well in our era, I assure you.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 17:05

Kafka Esq.: Jan 1, 2005; "If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

Rutibex posted:

Anecdotal but 2 friends I know "made it" they both have very nice jobs and renovated their kitchens. Granite countertops, brand new gas oven, super expensive pots and pans, professional knives (I love these), the works. They both eat out 6 days a week.

I can't afford to eat out; I cook every day. I use a 30 year old electric stove, with plastic countertops and a $10 walmart knife set

Cooks the same.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 17:30

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

There's a big difference between things that are just cosmetic (granite countertops) and things that can be expensive, but are clearly better or more useful, like good knives, a gas range instead of electric, or good quality pots and pans (though those are, I would say, much less helpful than good knifes and a gas range).

# ? Jul 1, 2014 17:33

Rutibex: Sep 9, 2001; by Fluffdaddy

PT6A posted:

There's a big difference between things that are just cosmetic (granite countertops) and things that can be expensive, but are clearly better or more useful, like good knives, a gas range instead of electric, or good quality pots and pans (though those are, I would say, much less helpful than good knifes and a gas range).

Yeah I have cooked in their kitchen and believe me I notice a difference. The knives alone are a huge deal. They also have stuff like a professional mixer, a deep frier, professional food processor, etc.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 17:59

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

PT6A posted:

good knifes and a gas range).

Yup. If you have both of these, the rest is just aesthetic detail.

# ? Jul 1, 2014 18:32

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

What you mean you Ballers don't use a knife service

# ? Jul 1, 2014 18:43

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Paging Cultural Imperial: a piece in The Economist about possible BC implications of weed legalization in certain states: http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2014/06/cannabis-british-columbia

I'm pretty squarely in the camp of bad consequences for BC, but it's very hard to quantify.

# ? Jul 2, 2014 01:35

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Kafka Esq. posted:

I'm kind of shocked by the idea that only 25% of the people renovating are using home equity to finance it, but, having dabbled in the kitchen business for years, it's not really surprising how far it has risen. The GTA had a two year period where the amount of kitchen related businesses doubled, whether it was faucets, appliances, floors, cabinets, cookbooks or fancy copper pans. In fact, the glut of new businesses in the market actually led to a big convention being held at the Living Arts Centre in Mississauga, in addition to the Home Show that usually goes on in Toronto. Two gigantic conventions within rock throwing distance of each other.

Yup the US had a similar HELOC granite countertop spending binge before the market crashed.

# ? Jul 2, 2014 01:49

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Lexicon posted:

Yup. If you have both of these, the rest is just aesthetic detail.

On one hand, I really wish I had a gas range. On the other hand, I'm fairly happy to not give the other people in my building a way of causing me massive inconvenience, injury or death, given that they've already managed to start things on fire with the tools at hand.

My good knives, though? You can have them when you pry them from my cold, dead fingers. I also love my Le Creuset Dutch oven that I got as a Christmas present, even though I could probably do without it. It's just... great.

Lexicon posted:

Paging Cultural Imperial: a piece in The Economist about possible BC implications of weed legalization in certain states: http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2014/06/cannabis-british-columbia

I'm pretty squarely in the camp of bad consequences for BC, but it's very hard to quantify.

It probably won't hit Vancouver for another little while, but they guys I know in the Kootenays are already suffering from legalization in Colorado and whatnot. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how much of the province's economy was actually built on marijuana.

# ? Jul 2, 2014 01:53

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Lexicon posted:

Paging Cultural Imperial: a piece in The Economist about possible BC implications of weed legalization in certain states: http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2014/06/cannabis-british-columbia

I'm pretty squarely in the camp of bad consequences for BC, but it's very hard to quantify.

Thanks lexicon. Lol gently caress those Emery idiots

# ? Jul 2, 2014 02:14

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

We like to check out open houses and I always have an eye for the kitchens given that we cook and bake from scratch every day.

Good knives and a gas range is right. Fancy pots and pans are bullshit. They tend to be very heavy and full of dumb poo poo like copper. No professionals use these - just basic frying pans and pots. The heavy ones defeat the purpose of a gas range which is fine temperature control.

Anyways, lots of renovated kitchens look pretty but are completely impractical. You can tell they were designed and planned by people who don't use their kitchen. Useless islands full of poo poo in the direction path between fridge, sink, range. No counter space. Appliances everywhere.

# ? Jul 2, 2014 06:10

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Have you noticed that a lot of houses in vancouver now have 2 kitchens? The wolf range doesn't get used.

# ? Jul 2, 2014 06:17

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Have you noticed that a lot of houses in vancouver now have 2 kitchens? The wolf range doesn't get used.

Wtf, why?

# ? Jul 2, 2014 11:53

Kafka Esq.: Jan 1, 2005; "If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

Lexicon posted:

Wtf, why?

One to show and one to go, we used to call it.

# ? Jul 2, 2014 12:17

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# ? May 18, 2024 00:57

Bleu: Jul 19, 2006

For the really strict vegan/Muslim/breatharian in your life.

# ? Jul 2, 2014 12:18

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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