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namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Today in 'history keeps repeating itself':

https://twitter.com/MacroPru/status/496165206436102144/photo/1

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ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

:stare:

I guess all the fundamentals have returned to the good. Spain still has 25% unemployment right?

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

ocrumsprug posted:

:stare:

I guess all the fundamentals have returned to the good. Spain still has 25% unemployment right?

Yeah, but Spanish unemployment is weird:

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

computer parts posted:

Yeah, but Spanish unemployment is weird:



That's some loving lol poo poo. Why the gently caress is the EU letting all these poo poo countries in?

In other news, HYPERINFLATION MOTHERFUCKERS

http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2014/08/04/why_the_lowinterestrate_trap_is_worrying_so_many_money_managers.html

quote:

David Stockman, U.S. President Ronald Reagan’s budget director, said in a recent blog post that by telegraphing their intentions to keep rates low, the world’s central banks are pursuing financial instability. That’s because they are removing the element of risk that keeps speculation in check.
“Financial markets have become casinos in which speculative bubbles are guaranteed to build to dangerous extremes as the central-bank-driven financial inflation gathers force,” he wrote. “That’s where we are now. Again.”


Here's how you know you can ignore a pundit. Associated with Ronald Reagan.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
I haven't read the article, but the part you quoted seems to make sense to me? :confused:

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

FrozenVent posted:

I haven't read the article, but the part you quoted seems to make sense to me? :confused:

If banks are still unwilling to lend and companies unwilling to spend, and the GDP isn't growing, where are we going to get hyperinflation?

Things are getting better in the US but they're still a long way off from Germany in 1922.

e: regarding the speculative bubble, well, who knows what the gently caress is going on when assholes are valuing sexting apps at 10 billion. maybe we all just need to Lean In a bit more.

e2: Just because stock markets are at all time highs doesn't mean that the fed should respond.

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Aug 4, 2014

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
Banks are unwilling to lend? Seems to me they're throwing cheap money at everyone these days, isn't that one of the central issue of this thread's subject?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

FrozenVent posted:

Banks are unwilling to lend? Seems to me they're throwing cheap money at everyone these days, isn't that one of the central issue of this thread's subject?

In canada, I fully agree. In the US, I'm not so sure.

e: This is really interesting.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.DOMS.GD.ZS


The US. Domestic credit provided by financial sector (% of GDP)
code:
2009    2010    2011    2012
231.4	228.1	227.9	229.9	
No data for canada.

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 17:45 on Aug 4, 2014

ductonius
Apr 9, 2007
I heard there's a cream for that...

Saltin posted:

This is correct - they are different. Racism is generally rooted in fear while hating people with dough is mostly jealousy.

What if the hate is rooted in the economic idea that concentrations of wealth show restrictions in money flow and therefore are indicative of decreased money velocity and economic inefficiency?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-4TRMFpqVM

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Saltin posted:

This is correct - they are different. Racism is generally rooted in fear while hating people with dough is mostly jealousy.

Anti-Semitism was rooted in both.

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

ductonius posted:

What if the hate is rooted in the economic idea that concentrations of wealth show restrictions in money flow and therefore are indicative of decreased money velocity and economic inefficiency?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-4TRMFpqVM

Then I'd say don't hate the player, hate the game.

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos

Cultural Imperial posted:

If banks are still unwilling to lend and companies unwilling to spend, and the GDP isn't growing, where are we going to get hyperinflation?
Speculators inflating stock market bubbles. You don't need banks lending or companies spending for that. When an equity bubble implodes it takes the economy with it.

Something about great stock market crashes. I think a couple happened a while ago due to speculation. Which caused a bunch of regulation to be put in to place. Which was then weakened or lost.

ductonius
Apr 9, 2007
I heard there's a cream for that...

Saltin posted:

Then I'd say don't hate the player, hate the game.

I'm not entirely sure you actually meant to advocate socialist revolution here.

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

ductonius posted:

I'm not entirely sure you actually meant to advocate socialist revolution here.

I'm not advocating for it, since I am successful and happy within the current system but it is an option for those who are directing vitriol in this thread toward "people with money". There is nothing inherently wrong with having money. If you're unhappy about the system that allows people who aren't you to get ahead, do something about it. That might include socialist revolution, it might include making better life choices. I don't know, since I don't know what anyone else's deal is.

Saltin fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Aug 4, 2014

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Saltin posted:

I'm not advocating for it, since I am successful and happy within the current system but it is an option for those who are directing vitriol in this thread toward "people with money". There is nothing inherently wrong with having money. If you're unhappy about the system that allows people who aren't you to get ahead, do something about it. That might include socialist revolution, it might include making better life choices. I don't know, since I don't know what anyone else's deal is.

So you would prefer a mob of angry peasants storm up to your house and turn it into a homeless shelter in the name of the peoples revolution than get bad words directed to you on the internet?

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

Rutibex posted:

So you would prefer a mob of angry peasants storm up to your house and turn it into a homeless shelter in the name of the peoples revolution than get bad words directed to you on the internet?

It's never going to happen because it's easier to direct angry words at people on the internet. Not sure where anyone said bad words to me though.

Also, this is Canada, I already support homeless shelters.

Saltin fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Aug 4, 2014

Tighclops
Jan 23, 2008

Unable to deal with it


Grimey Drawer

Saltin posted:

I'm not advocating for it, since I am successful and happy within the current system but it is an option for those who are directing vitriol in this thread toward "people with money". There is nothing inherently wrong with having money. If you're unhappy about the system that allows people who aren't you to get ahead, do something about it. That might include socialist revolution, it might include making better life choices. I don't know, since I don't know what anyone else's deal is.

I'm sure there are a lot of people who feel jealous of the rich because they want what people with money have, but I'm certain there are also a lot of people that hate the rich because people with money often arrogantly assume they're in some way better (or ultimately anything other than luckier) than people who don't have money.

JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Saltin posted:

I'm not advocating for it, since I am successful and happy within the current system but it is an option for those who are directing vitriol in this thread toward "people with money". There is nothing inherently wrong with having money. If you're unhappy about the system that allows people who aren't you to get ahead, do something about it. That might include socialist revolution, it might include making better life choices. I don't know, since I don't know what anyone else's deal is.

Unless you acquired that capital without any form of exploitation either directly or indirectly taking place with respect to how you acquired it then yes, there is something wrong with 'having' money. Beyond that, due to the vast inequalities in society, being someone who has money provides you with a very obvious normative obligation to help others.

ZShakespeare
Jul 20, 2003

The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose!

JawKnee posted:

Unless you acquired that capital without any form of exploitation either directly or indirectly taking place with respect to how you acquired it then yes, there is something wrong with 'having' money. Beyond that, due to the vast inequalities in society, being someone who has money provides you with a very obvious normative obligation to help others.

This is something that every single one of us in this thread is guilty of so I guess congrats on a giant pot/kettle circle jerk.

ductonius
Apr 9, 2007
I heard there's a cream for that...

ZShakespeare posted:

This is something that every single one of us in this thread is guilty of so I guess congrats on a giant pot/kettle circle jerk.

So, because someone speaking against wealth inequity is not dirt poor, they are a hypocrite. Whereas if they were dirt poor, they would be jealous/ignorant/envious.

Congratulations, you've become a cliche.

JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

ZShakespeare posted:

This is something that every single one of us in this thread is guilty of so I guess congrats on a giant pot/kettle circle jerk.

understanding your moral obligations to society and the rest of the world is important, so I'm not sure exactly what your point was? I wasn't attempting to claim some moral high-ground here

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

JawKnee posted:

Unless you acquired that capital without any form of exploitation either directly or indirectly taking place with respect to how you acquired it then yes, there is something wrong with 'having' money. Beyond that, due to the vast inequalities in society, being someone who has money provides you with a very obvious normative obligation to help others.

No argument here, except with it being wrong. I am definitely lucky, but prescribe to the " be good to be lucky" school of thought. Meditate on that daily. I also pay more in taxes than some households gross. Additionally I spend time with causes I care about, and even vote NDP.

All I'm saying is don't broad-brush success. It's not all lovely bros in BMWs. I sense you'd know that If you'd read my posts today.

Also - every dime you make is at someone's expense.

Saltin fucked around with this message at 00:33 on Aug 5, 2014

Mrs. Wynand
Nov 23, 2002

DLT 4EVA
The first step towards being a person that belongs to some lovely group but wants to be less lovely is to own the gently caress up to the lovely parts of the group and try and help instead of getting all offended because oh no you personally are surely not part of the problem. Yes yes, not you personally, #NOTALLMEN etc, but when you hear a group that is being somehow hosed over by the group you belong to, it is absolutely not the time to make the conversation about you and your hurt feels.

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

Mr. Wynand posted:

The first step towards being a person that belongs to some lovely group but wants to be less lovely is to own the gently caress up to the lovely parts of the group and try and help instead of getting all offended because oh no you personally are surely not part of the problem. Yes yes, not you personally, #NOTALLMEN etc, but when you hear a group that is being somehow hosed over by the group you belong to, it is absolutely not the time to make the conversation about you and your hurt feels.

The only people hurt in this conversation are the eat the rich contingent though so now what?

JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Saltin posted:

No argument here, except with it being wrong. I am definitely lucky, but prescribe to the " be good to be lucky" school of thought.

Also - every dime you make is at someone's expense.

I'm not arguing you aren't good at whatever it is you do, but you seem to understand that life in a first world country under any amount of privilege is predicated on the backs of others. What you don't seem to understand is that this constitutes harm-caused in a very real sense. If you think that's okay then, well, I suppose that's where we part ways. As you've decided to take the time to inform us specifically that you act in a beneficial manner to your various communities, that seems to imply that you're taking some action to try and redress that harm. However that doesn't excuse or allow for more of the same behavior - it isn't something one can just trade off.

That's why 'eat the rich' is even a response, not (or at least not primarily) because of envy, but because of an easy association of those who do harm vs. those who are harmed, regardless of how good you are at whatever it is you do.

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

JawKnee posted:

I'm not arguing you aren't good at whatever it is you do, but you seem to understand that life in a first world country under any amount of privilege is predicated on the backs of others. What you don't seem to understand is that this constitutes harm-caused in a very real sense. If you think that's okay then, well, I suppose that's where we part ways. As you've decided to take the time to inform us specifically that you act in a beneficial manner to your various communities, that seems to imply that you're taking some action to try and redress that harm. However that doesn't excuse or allow for more of the same behavior - it isn't something one can just trade off.

That's why 'eat the rich' is even a response, not (or at least not primarily) because of envy, but because of an easy association of those who do harm vs. those who are harmed, regardless of how good you are at whatever it is you do.

I am not sold on the premise that the average Westerner does no harm, or that more successful people do significantly more harm, in general.

You're right - that's probably where we part ways. Back to discussing mouldy basements in Vancouver.

Saltin fucked around with this message at 03:22 on Aug 5, 2014

Tighclops
Jan 23, 2008

Unable to deal with it


Grimey Drawer

Saltin posted:

In my estimation, given we are all doing harm as relative Kings among men, historically, any misgiving must be based in an inability to understand how good one has it, relatively, or envy.

Anyway moldy basements are a plague across this great nation of ours.

ZShakespeare
Jul 20, 2003

The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose!

JawKnee posted:

understanding your moral obligations to society and the rest of the world is important, so I'm not sure exactly what your point was? I wasn't attempting to claim some moral high-ground here

This entire thread is people bitching about who other people can afford to buy houses. My point was that we all exist in a capitalist society, and all of us in the west benefit from it, so unless you are a chinese foxxcon slave posting on SA in secret, you are just as guilty of benefitting from the exploitation of the poor as the next guy. So calling out people who are marginally more wealthy than you because they can afford to own their own home is stupid. There is a real issue worth talking about here, but hey, why do that when we can bitch about people who don't have to rent?

Wasting
Apr 25, 2013

The next to go

ZShakespeare posted:

This entire thread is people bitching about who other people can afford to buy houses.... There is a real issue worth talking about here, but hey, why do that when we can bitch about people who don't have to rent?

Yep, no dangerous asset bubble here. Just plain old jealousy and dumb renters. Just wait until valuations are 100% higher in five years - - that'll shut up all those envious renters at the IMF.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

ZShakespeare posted:

This entire thread is people bitching about who other people can afford to buy houses. My point was that we all exist in a capitalist society, and all of us in the west benefit from it, so unless you are a chinese foxxcon slave posting on SA in secret, you are just as guilty of benefitting from the exploitation of the poor as the next guy. So calling out people who are marginally more wealthy than you because they can afford to own their own home is stupid. There is a real issue worth talking about here, but hey, why do that when we can bitch about people who don't have to rent?

It's not quite that simple. I don't want to live in a country paralyzed by a real estate obsession, especially when at some point either the banks or the CMHC is going to be at my door, cap in hand, to stump up for the bailout. I do rent, but that's by a strong preference for liquidity and mobility on my part.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
ahhhh finally found my favorite shithead vancouverite's instagram again
http://instagram.com/nickdanielc



this loving guy

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.
Business, Finance, and Careers › [Canada] Buying Pre-Construction - Need Advice Beyond "Don't Buy It"

That thread just reminded me about my friend who bought a pre-construction condo here in Halifax a year ago. It seems as though it embodies everything this thread hates...





I'm not sure if they've even broke ground yet and they have tens of thousands of his dollars already. I wanted to stop him, but I didn't want to get involved. He's 25, and he bought a 1 bedroom. He'll be 28 by the time this place is built. He's not a rich guy - what if he gets hitched and wants to have kids?

But....floor to ceiling windows!

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

For a second I thought that building was made of shipping containers!

Edit: NVM, checked link, it's supposed to look like it is!

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Professor Shark posted:

For a second I thought that building was made of shipping containers!

Edit: NVM, checked link, it's supposed to look like it is!

I can't believe I didn't think of posting about it back when we were talking about people living in containers in Saskatchewan. I think I kind of blocked the whole charade from my mind. I'm going to take a bike down there at lunch to see if they've even started.

If I recall correctly there's a building that needs to be demolished first. I wager a slice of my mother's banana bread that it's still standing - a full year after he first gave them a bunch of money.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Danny LaFever posted:

I bought my place in Fall of 2007 and the bank was insistent on a 35 year mortgage but I ended up with a 25 year anyways. And it was a prime -0.1% rate as well.

I bought into the (GTA) market in 2010, and scooped up one of the last 35 year mortgages offered. It makes a ton of sense for fiscally responsible people who want to reduce their minimum obligation. That said I have no intention of waiting 35 years and am on track to be mortgage free in 15 years or less, barring buying a larger home :suicide:

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if when those 35 yr variable mortgages get renewed after a significant downturn there were a lot of defaults. I know a few people who are riding on housing being in the high 40s for percentage of net income.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/07/30/albertans-piling-on-debt-faster-than-rest-of-country-as-housing-market-heats-up/

quote:

Albertans piling on debt faster than rest of country as housing market heats up

A new poll shows that while Albertans are rapidly ramping up household debt, Ontarians are paying it down.

The Bank of Montreal report says average household debt in Alberta is $124,838, almost double that of average Ontario household debt which shrunk over the past year.

Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said he agrees with the overall trend lines of the report but cast some doubt on the exact numbers.

“I don’t know you can read a whole lot into the year to year movement,” said the economist, who nevertheless concurs that Alberta debt is rising because of the people moving into the province, buying homes and taking on a mortgage.

The online poll was conducted by Pollara between June 30, 2014 and July 3, 2014 with a sample of 1002 Canadians.

The study found the average household debt across Canada had climbed to $76,140, up from $72,045 a year earlier. Average household debt in Ontario dropped from $76,970 to $67,507.

“Household credit is still [going up] by about 4% per year. It is the slowest rate in three decades but we are still adding and almost as fast as our income is growing,” said Mr. Guatieri.

The general theme of the Bank of Montreal study is backed up by an Equifax Canada report issued in June that found the demand for credit has increased in Western Canada for four consecutive quarters.

“The numbers suggest Albertans are taking on more debt and it’s most likely because they are getting into the housing market. They are paying more and more each year,” said the economist. “There are a flood of young Canadians moving into the province.”

A new report from the Calgary Real Estate Board say buyers might get a bit of break in the second half of this year after prices over the first six months of 2014 rose 10% from the same period a year earlier. An average Calgary home had reached $443,500 in June, said CREB.

“There just hasn’t been a lot of supply, relative to demand. We’ve had record levels of net migration into the city and we’ve continued to have employment growth,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with CREB, adding inventory levels are finally starting to rise in the city.

A tight rental market has also pushed more people into the housing market in Alberta. The BMO survey found 53% of the people surveyed in Alberta had mortgage debt compared to the national average of 43%.

Ms. Lurie added while prices have certainly taken off in Calgary, it comes after a prolonged drop in the market.

“It’s important to keep in mind single family home prices just recovered last year from the previous high in 2007,” said Ms. Lurie.

Bank of Montreal mortgage specialist Laura Parsons said income levels in the province have driven consumer confidence in Alberta.

“They are just so many wealthy people here now,” said Ms. Parsons. “I think this survey shows most people are paying down debt just not in Alberta. But we’ve got the money.”

Statistics Canada data shows that in June, 2014 the average hourly wage for those 15 years and older in Alberta was $28.22, outpacing the national figure of $24.47 and Ontario’s hourly average wage of $24.80.

Regina Malina, senior director of decision insights with Equifax, said her group doesn’t break out Alberta specifically but when her ratings agency has looked at applications for credit not including mortgages it has seen a spike from the west over the past year.

“We’ve seen an increase in inquiries [for credit] but we can’t say for sure it’s increasing. We know people are being more active about seeking credit,” said Mr. Malina, about the jump in Western Canada. “There is just higher consumer confidence and the west is doing much better than other parts of the country and people are open to other options.”

“The ability to handle that extra credit is strong, if you base it on delinquency levels,” said Ms. Malina, pointing the non-payment rate after 90 days is just over 1% out west compared to an average of 1.25% nationally.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Bond yield spread between US/Can widest since 2007.



And supposedly this correlates.



So interest rates will do something or rather. Anyone actually know?

e: Tara Perkins thinks interest rates are going up.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/five-year-mortgages-holding-firm-but-just-wait/article19841876/

quote:

Rewind seven months and economists were predicting that five-year fixed mortgage rates would creep up a bit this year. But they've done nothing but fall so far. So what happened?

Five-year fixed mortgage rates tend to roughly track the yields on five-year government of Canada bonds, because those influence the cost of the funds that the banks obtain to lend out. Yields on five-year government of Canada bonds have fallen. They ended last year at 1.95 per cent, and this week were below 1.50 per cent.

“If you went back to the start of the year, there was an absolute consensus that bond yields were going to head higher,” explains Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Craig Alexander. “Not dramatically, but there was an absolute consensus that bond yields would be increasing through the course of 2014. So, one of the big surprises this year has been the drop in bond yields.”

Canadian bond yields tend to mirror those in the U.S. because the market views the securities as alternatives to one another.

“One of the things that happened at the start of this year was, initially, there were some concerns about emerging markets and the angst over the slowdown in China,” Mr. Alexander adds. “But then we started to get very weak economic data out of the United States, and there was news that the U.S. economy outright contracted, and you saw broad-based scaling back of expectations about global growth. So, while some of the fears about emerging markets diminished, it happened at the same time that people found something new to worry about.”

So, a more negative outlook for economic growth in the U.S. and elsewhere turned into good news for Canadian home buyers.

But Mr. Alexander thinks the U.S. economy is on pace to grow faster than most other advanced countries in the second half of this year. “As a consequence, I think that the rally in bonds that we’ve had since the start of the year is likely to be reversed, from an economic fundamentals point of view it’s only a matter of time. The thing that economists are notoriously bad at is timing.”

In other words, economists are still expecting five-year fixed mortgage rates to creep up, they just don’t know exactly when. Mr. Alexander now expects five-year bond yields to creep back up to about 1.95 – where they were at the end of 2013 – by the end of this year. He then sees them rising by about 90 basis points next year, largely during the second half of the year.

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Aug 5, 2014

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
^ Bonds and the bond market mystify me. Anyone care to explain why Canadian bonds would have a lower yield than American ones? Some sort of elaborate forex arbitrage reason I'm guessing?

Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Lexicon posted:

^ Bonds and the bond market mystify me. Anyone care to explain why Canadian bonds would have a lower yield than American ones? Some sort of elaborate forex arbitrage reason I'm guessing?

I would think it's a long-term price signal as to the projected future worth of the Canadian dollar vs. other currencies.

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Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

Lexicon posted:

^ Bonds and the bond market mystify me. Anyone care to explain why Canadian bonds would have a lower yield than American ones? Some sort of elaborate forex arbitrage reason I'm guessing?
It's investors pricing in the likely Canadian reaction to a strengthening American market, which is most likely a drop in the dollar.

edit: not to mention interest rates, of course.

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