Fantasy Football 2014: Barely More Accurate Than Flipping a Coin

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Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

If you're drafting Hill with the intention of starting him week one, even as a flex, you're probably not going to do very well this season.

# ? Sep 2, 2014 22:56

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 02:47

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

The best part about this argument is that we all had the same one about both Lacy and David Wilson last year, so either way this is going to be spectacular. :allears:

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:00

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Franks Happy Place posted:

This is really dumb because he is not a handcuff and they are both going to play in the same games. This is like drafting Ridley to handcuff Vereen or Mathews to handcuff Woodhead.

Ridley comparison is actually a pretty good one. I'd draft Hill right around where I'd draft Ridley. In fact, I just checked their ADPs and it turns out Ridley and Hill have essentially the same draft position.

For reference, here are the RBs in 12-man mocks in the rounds we're talking about here:

4th - Gerhart, Spiller, Mathews
5th - JBell, Tate, CJ?K
6th - Sankey, MJD
7th - Miller
8th - FJax, Ridley, Hill, Hyde

I dunno, that seems about right to me. I like Hill too, I was happy to get him late in my money league, but anything sooner than late 6th feels like a major reach. Happy to be proved wrong though!

edit: Hill has got the highest floor of the nearby backs, though, so if you pull something like Megatron-Dez-Rodgers-Gronk drafting around the 7-9 spot, Hill is so crucial I would consider taking him in the 7th. But that's a pretty narrow set of criteria.

Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Sep 2, 2014

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:01

Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

Hill will probably end up more reliable than Sankey

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:02

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Forever_Peace posted:

Ridley comparison is actually a pretty good one. I'd draft Hill right around where I'd draft Ridley. In fact, I just checked their ADPs and it turns out Ridley and Hill have essentially the same draft position.

For reference, here are the RBs in 12-man mocks in the rounds we're talking about here:

4th - Gerhart, Spiller, Mathews
5th - JBell, Tate, CJ?K
6th - Sankey, MJD
7th - Miller
8th - FJax, Ridley, Hill, Hyde

I dunno, that seems about right to me. I like Hill too, I was happy to get him late in my money league, but anything sooner than late 6th feels like a major reach. Happy to be proved wrong though!

This would be a great comparison, if it wasn't for the fact that the reason Ridley is at a massive discount is that he is one fumble away from being cut from the team.

If Ridley was secure in his job like Hill is (and Hill is pretty loving secure considering they just cut his only competition from the team), then they would be equivalent players. And I'd draft that universe's version of Ridley ahead of his ADP, too.

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:06

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Franks Happy Place posted:

This would be a great comparison, if it wasn't for the fact that the reason Ridley is at a massive discount is that he is one fumble away from being cut from the team.

If Ridley was secure in his job like Hill is (and Hill is pretty loving secure considering they just cut his only competition from the team), then they would be equivalent players. And I'd draft that universe's version of Ridley ahead of his ADP, too.

Just out of curiosity, where would you put the over/under point for Hill (compared to other backs) if you had to put money on it? It sounds like you're anticipating over JFax and Ridley (which is probably where I would put the O/U), but what about MJD and Sankey? Tate? JBell? Gerhart?

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:11

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Forever_Peace posted:

Just out of curiosity, where would you put the over/under point for Hill (compared to other backs) if you had to put money on it? It sounds like you're anticipating over JFax and Ridley (which is probably where I would put the O/U), but what about MJD and Sankey? Tate? JBell? Gerhart?

I actually love Fred Jackson as a value pick in that range so I wouldn't put Hill over him necessarily. I also think comparing what happens in a full NFL season is a mug's game.

That said, if Hill gets 15 touches a game like they said they were going to aim for, and averages 4 YPC, he'd get you 1000 yards. Factor in 8-10 TDs as the goal line back and you are talking respectable RB2 figures, in the range of Rashad Jennings/Ben Tate/Frank Gore. However now they've said Hill will be involved in the passing game sometimes, too, so he probably has more upside than guys like Gore, and at that point you're just trying to figure out how the Gio/Hill touch distribution breaks down, like Reggie Bush vs. Joique Bell.

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:23

nrr: Jan 2, 2007

Ok so I've got a draft coming up tonight for my crazy league and I'd like some thoughts on draft strategies because it's obviously going to be a totally different beast.

8 teams
2 QB
3 WR
2 RB
1 TE
1 WR/RB
2 WR/RB/TE
1 K
1 D/ST

1 PPR, 6 PPTD

So I've got the first pick, taking Peyton, but then I don't pick until the end of the 2nd. Obviously the best QB left on the board, but what else should I take with the next pick? Is the focus on a RB still, or should I be taking WR's considering how damned many of them I'm going to need? I'm not exactly sure which positions I should be targeting in each round based on how the funky roster and scoring effects things. Ideas?

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:24

keldegar: Sep 27, 2004; what, you don't like pizza?

nrr posted:

8-team 2QB

I wouldn't knee-jerk QB-QB in a 8-team league. That's only 16 starting QBs not 24 or more...

Take the best value.

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:26

KIM JONG TRILL: Nov 29, 2006; GIN AND JUCHE

I'm in a 14 team, 2QB league. I have 2 solid QBs.

I have Vick on my bench as a potential backup, but am thinking that Orton may be a better bet for a bench stash. Who do you think has the better chance to start?

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:34

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

keldegar posted:

I wouldn't knee-jerk QB-QB in a 8-team league. That's only 16 starting QBs not 24 or more...

Take the best value.

Since he's picking first, his next four picks will be 16 + 17, and then 33/34. I would absolutely not wait till pick # 33 to take the second QB, even in an 8 team league.

Go QB, and then QB+value (probably an RB). You can start up to five RBs in that league! Nobody will have enough RB depth to do that even with just 8 teams, but I would probably take RB for one of your 16/17 picks, and then at 33/34 go for high value, whether that's RB, WR, or a great TE.

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:36

keldegar: Sep 27, 2004; what, you don't like pizza?

Leperflesh posted:

Since he's picking first, his next four picks will be 16 + 17, and then 33/34. I would absolutely not wait till pick # 33 to take the second QB, even in an 8 team league.

Go QB, and then QB+value (probably an RB). You can start up to five RBs in that league! Nobody will have enough RB depth to do that even with just 8 teams, but I would probably take RB for one of your 16/17 picks, and then at 33/34 go for high value, whether that's RB, WR, or a great TE.

It probably works out that way with value to take a QB with 16 or 17, but if Jimmy Graham and AP or something is sitting there, you have to take them over Jake Locker.

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:40

Kloaked00: Jun 21, 2005; I was sitting in my office on that drizzly afternoon listening to the monotonous staccato of rain on my desk and reading my name on the glass of my office door: regnaD kciN

Fun fact: ESPN predicting Mike Wallace to score 12.5 points this week. For comparison, that's as much as they predict Jordy Nelson or Brandon Marshall to score

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:42

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D.: Oct 9, 2003; I've got a case of malt liquor stashed in the trunk, Mr. Marvin Gaye on the CD. We are gonna get all the way down.

Ertz or Kelce? only have room for one.

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:43

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

I want to be the guy getting paid to make fantasy football predictions.

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:45

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. posted:

Ertz or Kelce? only have room for one.

I like Ertz a lot and that's kind of Sophie's Choice, but Kelce is my pick for this year's Jordan Cameron. He is insanely talented and there is literally nobody in front of him on the checkdown list (assuming JC isn't Smith's first read, lol).

# ? Sep 2, 2014 23:55

Homestar Runner: Oct 9, 2012; This is the best videogame
I have ever played!

Is anyone stashing Christine Michael or is he still a real longshot to be fantasy relevant (given that Turbin is still, somehow, ahead)

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:01

drizzle: Jul 7, 2004; The world is a fine place and worth the fighting for and I hate very much to leave it.

Welker suspended 4 games for anyone thinking of giving Cody Latimer a shot

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:03

TUS: Feb 19, 2003; I'm going to stab you. Offline. With a real knife.

I hope no one was banking on Wes Welker the first 4 games.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:03

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Homestar Runner posted:

Is anyone stashing Christine Michael or is he still a real longshot to be fantasy relevant (given that Turbin is still, somehow, ahead)

Turbin looked good enough that at best CMike will be in a timeshare in the event of a Beef Moe catastrophe, so I'd drop him in redraft formats.

\/\/\/ Yeah in Dynasty or keeper leagues he is still worth a lot, kid has insane talent and Lynch is likely gone soon.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:04

drizzle: Jul 7, 2004; The world is a fine place and worth the fighting for and I hate very much to leave it.

Homestar Runner posted:

Is anyone stashing Christine Michael or is he still a real longshot to be fantasy relevant (given that Turbin is still, somehow, ahead)

Have him on my dynasty league and am not planning on giving him up anytime soon. Redraft I don't know why anyone would have drafted him, especially at how high he was going.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:04

keldegar: Sep 27, 2004; what, you don't like pizza?

drizzle posted:

Welker suspended 4 games for anyone thinking of giving Cody Latimer a shot

Sanders stock up

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:09

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

What? Why is Welker suspended?

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:10

TUS: Feb 19, 2003; I'm going to stab you. Offline. With a real knife.

Amphetamines.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:12

TheMcD: May 4, 2013; Monaca / Subject N 2024
---------
Despair will never let you down.
Malice will never disappoint you.

RCarr posted:

What? Why is Welker suspended?

PED violation, apparently.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/09/02/wes-welker-suspended-four-games-for-violating-ped-policy/

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:12

Its Miller Time: Dec 4, 2004

@ProFootballTalk Source: Welker took Molly at the Kentucky Derby. It had been cut with amphetamines. Same situation as Orlando Scandrick.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:13

VDay: Jul 2, 2003; I'm Pacman Jones!

That might be the single whitest thing you can do.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:16

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D.: Oct 9, 2003; I've got a case of malt liquor stashed in the trunk, Mr. Marvin Gaye on the CD. We are gonna get all the way down.

Franks Happy Place posted:

I like Ertz a lot and that's kind of Sophie's Choice, but Kelce is my pick for this year's Jordan Cameron. He is insanely talented and there is literally nobody in front of him on the checkdown list (assuming JC isn't Smith's first read, lol).

This is pretty much how I feel. I drafted Ertz, but I'm really high on Kelce and he is just sitting there for the taking, but for some reason I can't bring myself to drop Ertz for him. drat short bench.

my other options to drop are Ray Rice, Eric Decker or Marques Colston....

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:20

Dren: Jan 5, 2001; Pillbug

nrr posted:

Ok so I've got a draft coming up tonight for my crazy league and I'd like some thoughts on draft strategies because it's obviously going to be a totally different beast.

8 teams
2 QB
3 WR
2 RB
1 TE
1 WR/RB
2 WR/RB/TE
1 K
1 D/ST

1 PPR, 6 PPTD

So I've got the first pick, taking Peyton, but then I don't pick until the end of the 2nd. Obviously the best QB left on the board, but what else should I take with the next pick? Is the focus on a RB still, or should I be taking WR's considering how damned many of them I'm going to need? I'm not exactly sure which positions I should be targeting in each round based on how the funky roster and scoring effects things. Ideas?

I'm looking at the beersheets and it seems to me like you are overvaluing QBs here.

You're gonna have to mix-n-match the sheets to see it but here's the deal. Your league has demand for 8 players starting 2 QBs that's 16 QBs. So take the QB column from the 8-1 2QB sheet:

code:

QUARTERBACK							
NAME		BW	ADP	RR	VAL	SDV	PS	T
Peyton Manning	4	10	8	8.3	1.0	89%	1
Aaron Rodgers	9	21	17	7.5	1.1	80%	1
Drew Brees	6	19	13	7.0	1.2	71%	2-
Andrew Luck	10	56	41	5.2	0.8	64%	3
Matthew Stafford	9	49	32	4.8	0.8	58%	3
Nick Foles	7	80	62	4.8	1.0	52%	3
Cam Newton	12	98	77	4.2	1.0	46%	3
Colin Kaepernick	8	109	87	4.2	0.7	41%	4
Russell Wilson	4	118	95	4.0	1.0	36%	4
Robert Griffin III	10	102	78	3.9	0.8	31%	4
Tom Brady	10	68	43	3.9	0.9	26%	4
Matt Ryan	9	72	44	3.7	0.7	21%	4-
Tony Romo	11	93	62	3.4	1.0	17%	4
Jay Cutler	9	87	52	3.0	0.8	13%	5
Philip Rivers	10	111	68	2.6	0.9	10%	5-
Ben Roethlisberger	12	135	89	2.4	0.8	7%	5
Andy Dalton	4	129	77	1.8	0.8	4%	6
Alex Smith	6	N/A	N/A	1.4	1.0	3%	6
Ryan Tannehill	5	164	105	1.3	0.7	1%	6
Carson Palmer	4	144	75	0.5	0.8	0%	7
Joe Flacco	11	188	110	0.2	0.4	0%	7
Eli Manning	8	174	90	-0.1	0.6	0%	7
EJ Manuel	9	N/A	N/A	-1.0	1.0	0%	8
Jake Locker	9	N/A	N/A	-1.0	1.8	0%	8
Geno Smith	11	N/A	N/A	-1.2	1.1	0%	8
Josh McCown	7	177	65	-1.6	1.5	0%	8+
Shaun Hill	4	N/A	N/A	-2.2	1.5	0%	8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	10	N/A	N/A	-2.7	1.5	0%	9
Johnny Manziel	4	171	26	-3.4	3.0	0%	9
Matt Schaub	5	N/A	N/A	-4.6	2.8	0%	9+
Chad Henne	11	N/A	N/A	-6.6	2.0	0%	10
Teddy Bridgewater	10	N/A	N/A	-6.8	3.4	0%	10

You've got way increased demand for RB/WR though. w/ 5 starters and 3 flexes (demand for 64 RB/WR) your league is much more like the 10-1 3WR sheet (w/ demand for 60 RB/WR). So check out the RB and WR columns there.

code:

RUNNING BACK							
NAME		BW	ADP	RR	VAL	SDV	PS	T
Jamaal Charles	6	2	-2	11.3	1.8	92%	1-
Matt Forte	9	3	-10	9.4	1.2	85%	2-
LeSean McCoy	7	1	-16	8.9	1.3	78%	2-
Adrian Peterson	10	4	-21	7.9	1.3	72%	3
Eddie Lacy	9	6	-28	6.5	1.1	67%	4
DeMarco Murray	11	15	-20	6.5	1.2	62%	4-
Montee Ball	4	12	-24	6.2	1.4	58%	4
Giovani Bernard	4	17	-21	6.1	1.3	53%	4
Marshawn Lynch	4	16	-26	5.4	1.6	49%	4-
Arian Foster	10	26	-17	5.4	1.8	45%	4-
LeVeon Bell	12	28	-17	5.2	1.7	41%	4-
Andre Ellington	4	23	-29	4.8	1.0	38%	5
Doug Martin	7	25	-28	4.7	0.8	34%	5
Reggie Bush	9	34	-23	4.3	1.0	31%	5
Toby Gerhart	11	44	-19	3.7	1.1	28%	5
...

code:

WIDE RECEIVER							
NAME		BW	ADP	RR	VAL	SDV	PS	T
Calvin Johnson	9	5	-1	10.3	0.9	94%	1
Demaryius Thomas	4	7	-4	9.5	0.9	89%	1
Dez Bryant	11	9	-9	8.8	0.9	84%	2
Brandon Marshall	9	13	-8	8.4	0.9	80%	2
A.J. Green	4	11	-11	8.1	0.8	75%	2
Julio Jones	9	14	-10	7.9	1.2	71%	2
Antonio Brown	12	18	-8	7.8	1.1	66%	2
Jordy Nelson	9	20	-10	6.9	0.7	63%	3
Alshon Jeffery	9	22	-11	6.6	0.7	59%	3
Andre Johnson	10	38	1	6.1	1.3	55%	3
Randall Cobb	9	24	-15	6.0	1.0	52%	3
Victor Cruz	8	40	-6	5.2	1.2	49%	4
Pierre Garcon	10	37	-10	5.2	1.0	46%	4
Vincent Jackson	7	35	-13	5.2	1.1	44%	4
Larry Fitzgerald	4	41	-8	5.1	1.0	41%	4
...

I believe there's more value in position players in your format than there is in QBs.

So... draft Calvin Johnson or Jamaal Charles or Matt Forte w/ your #1, print out both the sheets I mentioned, and do value based drafting.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:21

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. posted:

This is pretty much how I feel. I drafted Ertz, but I'm really high on Kelce and he is just sitting there for the taking, but for some reason I can't bring myself to drop Ertz for him. drat short bench.

my other options to drop are Ray Rice, Eric Decker or Marques Colston....

I will be zero percent surprised if Kelce outscores Rice in fantasy this year. I think Rice is donezo and Pierce fits the new scheme better anyways, never even mind the suspension.

But yeah, that's a tough call to make. I think Kelce > Ertz, though.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:22

VDay: Jul 2, 2003; I'm Pacman Jones!

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. posted:

This is pretty much how I feel. I drafted Ertz, but I'm really high on Kelce and he is just sitting there for the taking, but for some reason I can't bring myself to drop Ertz for him. drat short bench.

I'm drafting later today and I've had to consider this same conundrum since I'm looking to snag either Ertz or Kelce later on. The way I figure it Ertz has the higher floor by being on the Eagles, but also a lower ceiling than Kelce for the very same reason. I'm personally planning on taking Kelce late as a second/backup TE, but if I miss out on the Witten/Cameron/Reed tier of TEs I'll grab Ertz instead.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:23

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

VDay posted:

I'm drafting later today and I've had to consider this same conundrum since I'm looking to snag either Ertz or Kelce later on. The way I figure it Ertz has the higher floor by being on the Eagles, but also a lower ceiling than Kelce for the very same reason. I'm personally planning on taking Kelce late as a second/backup TE, but if I miss out on the Witten/Cameron/Reed tier of TEs I'll grab Ertz instead.

Unless you think Bowe is going to make a comeback, Kelce's floor is X, where X is the number of passing touchdowns Alex Smith throws this year.

And I'm only half joking.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:24

VDay: Jul 2, 2003; I'm Pacman Jones!

Except it isn't because Charles will take a cut of those. Like I said I think Kelce has a higher ceiling, but that requires the Chiefs offense to actually get him the ball which is never a given for anybody that's not an every-down back. I still like him obviously and he's in a great spot, but it's still a gamble imo. Especially compared to Ertz and his slice of the Eagles fantasy offense pie.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:32

seventeen: Jan 2, 2005; Do not try and score on the powerplay. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth.

What truth?

There is no powerplay.

I managed to grab both Ertz and Kelce so TE will be a wild ride of boom or bust roulette the first few weeks while their roles are carved out

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:32

nrr: Jan 2, 2007

Dren posted:

code:

QUARTERBACK							
NAME		BW	ADP	RR	VAL	SDV	PS	T
Peyton Manning	4	10	8	8.3	1.0	89%	1
Aaron Rodgers	9	21	17	7.5	1.1	80%	1
Drew Brees	6	19	13	7.0	1.2	71%	2-
Andrew Luck	10	56	41	5.2	0.8	64%	3
Matthew Stafford	9	49	32	4.8	0.8	58%	3
Nick Foles	7	80	62	4.8	1.0	52%	3
Cam Newton	12	98	77	4.2	1.0	46%	3
Colin Kaepernick	8	109	87	4.2	0.7	41%	4
Russell Wilson	4	118	95	4.0	1.0	36%	4
Robert Griffin III	10	102	78	3.9	0.8	31%	4
Tom Brady	10	68	43	3.9	0.9	26%	4
Matt Ryan	9	72	44	3.7	0.7	21%	4-
Tony Romo	11	93	62	3.4	1.0	17%	4
Jay Cutler	9	87	52	3.0	0.8	13%	5
Philip Rivers	10	111	68	2.6	0.9	10%	5-
Ben Roethlisberger	12	135	89	2.4	0.8	7%	5
Andy Dalton	4	129	77	1.8	0.8	4%	6
Alex Smith	6	N/A	N/A	1.4	1.0	3%	6
Ryan Tannehill	5	164	105	1.3	0.7	1%	6
Carson Palmer	4	144	75	0.5	0.8	0%	7
Joe Flacco	11	188	110	0.2	0.4	0%	7
Eli Manning	8	174	90	-0.1	0.6	0%	7
EJ Manuel	9	N/A	N/A	-1.0	1.0	0%	8
Jake Locker	9	N/A	N/A	-1.0	1.8	0%	8
Geno Smith	11	N/A	N/A	-1.2	1.1	0%	8
Josh McCown	7	177	65	-1.6	1.5	0%	8+
Shaun Hill	4	N/A	N/A	-2.2	1.5	0%	8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	10	N/A	N/A	-2.7	1.5	0%	9
Johnny Manziel	4	171	26	-3.4	3.0	0%	9
Matt Schaub	5	N/A	N/A	-4.6	2.8	0%	9+
Chad Henne	11	N/A	N/A	-6.6	2.0	0%	10
Teddy Bridgewater	10	N/A	N/A	-6.8	3.4	0%	10

code:

RUNNING BACK							
NAME		BW	ADP	RR	VAL	SDV	PS	T
Jamaal Charles	6	2	-2	11.3	1.8	92%	1-
Matt Forte	9	3	-10	9.4	1.2	85%	2-
LeSean McCoy	7	1	-16	8.9	1.3	78%	2-
Adrian Peterson	10	4	-21	7.9	1.3	72%	3
Eddie Lacy	9	6	-28	6.5	1.1	67%	4
DeMarco Murray	11	15	-20	6.5	1.2	62%	4-
Montee Ball	4	12	-24	6.2	1.4	58%	4
Giovani Bernard	4	17	-21	6.1	1.3	53%	4
Marshawn Lynch	4	16	-26	5.4	1.6	49%	4-
Arian Foster	10	26	-17	5.4	1.8	45%	4-
LeVeon Bell	12	28	-17	5.2	1.7	41%	4-
Andre Ellington	4	23	-29	4.8	1.0	38%	5
Doug Martin	7	25	-28	4.7	0.8	34%	5
Reggie Bush	9	34	-23	4.3	1.0	31%	5
Toby Gerhart	11	44	-19	3.7	1.1	28%	5
...

code:

WIDE RECEIVER							
NAME		BW	ADP	RR	VAL	SDV	PS	T
Calvin Johnson	9	5	-1	10.3	0.9	94%	1
Demaryius Thomas	4	7	-4	9.5	0.9	89%	1
Dez Bryant	11	9	-9	8.8	0.9	84%	2
Brandon Marshall	9	13	-8	8.4	0.9	80%	2
A.J. Green	4	11	-11	8.1	0.8	75%	2
Julio Jones	9	14	-10	7.9	1.2	71%	2
Antonio Brown	12	18	-8	7.8	1.1	66%	2
Jordy Nelson	9	20	-10	6.9	0.7	63%	3
Alshon Jeffery	9	22	-11	6.6	0.7	59%	3
Andre Johnson	10	38	1	6.1	1.3	55%	3
Randall Cobb	9	24	-15	6.0	1.0	52%	3
Victor Cruz	8	40	-6	5.2	1.2	49%	4
Pierre Garcon	10	37	-10	5.2	1.0	46%	4
Vincent Jackson	7	35	-13	5.2	1.1	44%	4
Larry Fitzgerald	4	41	-8	5.1	1.0	41%	4
...

Ok, cool. Thanks a lot for this, I never thought of looking at it that way. I've never used beer sheets before, so I guess I'd better spend the next 3 and a half hours figuring out how to.

e: Which TE sheet should I be looking at?

nrr fucked around with this message at 00:40 on Sep 3, 2014

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:36

Arcturas: Mar 30, 2011

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. posted:

This is pretty much how I feel. I drafted Ertz, but I'm really high on Kelce and he is just sitting there for the taking, but for some reason I can't bring myself to drop Ertz for him. drat short bench.

my other options to drop are Ray Rice, Eric Decker or Marques Colston....

I'm in a similar situation. I've got Ertz as my backup TE behind Jordan Cameron, and am willing to roll the dice on Kelce, but on the other hand I already have Ertz... My bench spots are: Reuben Randle, Bernard Pierce, and James Starks. Randle & Pierce seem like they're actually okay at this game and I cannot bring myself to give up my token Packer even if I'd be objectively better off with Kelce on the team.

Incidentally: Boykin or Starks for token Packer? I went with Starks because I have more backup WRs but both are pretty sweet.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:38

ChiTownEddie: Mar 26, 2010; Awesome beer, no pants.
Join the Legion.

Saw Welker is suspended. Laugh.
Sign into keeper draft and notice someone kept him over Ball. Laughed harder.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:41

Dren: Jan 5, 2001; Pillbug

nrr posted:

Ok, cool. Thanks a lot for this, I never thought of looking at it that way. I've never used beer sheets before, so I guess I'd better spend the next 3 and a half hours figuring out how to.

e: Which TE sheet should I be looking at?

My guess is use the 8-1 2QB sheet for TE. Your league starts 1 TE and can flex another but who cares because TE's not named gronkowski, graham, or Cameron are all one big pile of suck and no one's going to flex them.

Look at the OP in this thread. Beer put some links to reddit posts with examples of how to use the sheets.

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:49

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

Being white and doing white people drugs gets you 1/4 the punishment in the NFL

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:51

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 8, 2024 02:47

keldegar: Sep 27, 2004; what, you don't like pizza?

Varg posted:

Being white and doing white people drugs gets you 1/4 the punishment in the NFL

for your first offense

# ? Sep 3, 2014 00:56

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2014: Barely More Accurate Than Flipping a Coin

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