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farraday posted:There are some things here people should know.
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Sep 6, 2014 15:23
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Killer-of-Lawyers posted:How do they think the US stole the government in Kiev? Is this some sort of bizzaro world where if they say that the US was behind the coup enough it'll suddenly become true? The US has done enough dumb things, people don't need to make things up. This picture, I think, had something to do with it.  "U.S. Senator John McCain, right, meets Ukrainian opposition leaders Arseniy Yatsenyuk, left, and Oleh Tyahnybok in Kiev, Ukraine, Saturday, Dec. 14, 2013." http://voiceofdetroit.net/2014/03/02/is-the-u-s-backing-neo-nazis-in-ukraine/#sthash.71yrRnsp.dpuf
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Sep 6, 2014 15:24
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eXXon posted:
I assume what they meant was that the Russian government genuinely believes that the US effected a coup in Ukraine, rather than it just being their propaganda narrative, but yeah I was confused by that as well. I guess it is a plausible interpretation in that sense, that the Russians stole Crimea because they thought the US stole Ukraine. e: I should probably also clarify that I don't agree with them which is why I wrote in the first place (I just said I think they're giving too much credence to Russia's official viewpoints and I don't share their confidence in Putin's objectives in Ukraine being limited). Zohar fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Sep 6, 2014 |
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Sep 6, 2014 15:28
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Last I checked a dumb rear end senator isn't a head of state and can go around doing whatever he wants to, so I don't really see what the picture has to do with anything. I mean, the Russians can believe what ever tripe they want to believe, but having the whole line repeated in this thread is pretty dumb. Everyone here knows better than to think the US stole the Ukraine.
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Sep 6, 2014 15:28
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A Buttery Pastry posted:I didn't consider that, but that's a good point. Time to increase immigration then. Why increase immigration when you can just conduct Mourning Wars?
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Sep 6, 2014 15:31
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Fabulous Knight posted:Russia's population is growing. I don't know, maybe it's not permanent and annexing Crimea and three million people helped, but that's in addition to natural growth. Those articles didn't seem to differentiate between birth rates of ethnic Russians and the birth rates of other minorities in Russia. Everything I've read seems to show the Muslim minorities birth rates are higher then ethnic Russians and the authors of these articles did not seem to specify if they meant ethnic Russians or simply having a Russian passport = Russian. Russian minorities especially the Muslim Russians in the Caucasus area probably have little loyalty to the current regime.
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Sep 6, 2014 15:35
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farraday posted:
I don't think you've ever read any of his articles if you're making this claim. He's always stated that eventually the russian birth rate will decline because of the smaller cohort born during the 1990's. Reading comprehension is some hard poo poo, it's okay, you're not alone in this thread.
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Sep 6, 2014 15:36
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Panas posted:I don't think you've ever read any of his articles if you're making this claim. He's always stated that eventually the russian birth rate will decline because of the smaller cohort born during the 1990's. Reading comprehension is some hard poo poo, it's okay, you're not alone in this thread. Go ahead and quote where he said that in either linked article. It shouldn't be too hard considering he always says that.
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Sep 6, 2014 15:41
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Zohar posted:I assume what they meant was that the Russian government genuinely believes that the US effected a coup in Ukraine, rather than it just being their propaganda narrative, but yeah I was confused by that as well. I guess it is a plausible interpretation in that sense, that the Russians stole Crimea because they thought the US stole Ukraine. Russia probably really does believe that, because of utter contempt they have for the Ukrainian people, with a corresponding belief in their lack of agency.
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Sep 6, 2014 15:47
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Killer-of-Lawyers posted:Last I checked a dumb rear end senator isn't a head of state and can go around doing whatever he wants to ...a nuance that's probably lost on a country whose Duma marches in precise lockstep with Mr. Putin.
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Sep 6, 2014 15:51
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Yeah, like I said, the Russians can believe in whatever crazy conspiracy they want to. I don't buy it from anyone in this thread. Neither do I think the people in charge of Russia are that dumb either. If they are though, it's not exactly worrying. There aren't many non-NATO countries left for them to slice up.
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Sep 6, 2014 15:55
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Killer-of-Lawyers posted:Yeah, like I said, the Russians can believe in whatever crazy conspiracy they want to. I don't buy it from anyone in this thread. Neither do I think the people in charge of Russia are that dumb either. If they are though, it's not exactly worrying. There aren't many non-NATO countries left for them to slice up.
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Sep 6, 2014 16:00
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Killer-of-Lawyers posted:Yeah, like I said, the Russians can believe in whatever crazy conspiracy they want to. I don't buy it from anyone in this thread. Neither do I think the people in charge of Russia are that dumb either. If they are though, it's not exactly worrying. There aren't many non-NATO countries left for them to slice up. Well, it sounds like NightWatch thinks they're on course for a confrontation with NATO of some sort in the Baltics, so yeah.
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Sep 6, 2014 16:01
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Forgall posted:Estonia is in nato, didn't stop them from kidnapping officer across the border... We don't really know all the details of that, and that's still far away from an actual invasion. Zohar posted:Well, it sounds like NightWatch thinks they're on course for a confrontation with NATO of some sort in the Baltics, so yeah. I know they do, but they also seem to think that the US stole Kiev. They may have a good finger on what Russia is going to do though, and seem to have had a good idea of what Russia would do so far in this conflict, but their understanding of the situation seems a bit stymied. I still trust that the Russians aren't as incredibly dumb as to try any Tom Clancy Red Storm Rising style BS against an actual NATO member. Most likely I think they'll do more cold war style posturing, which doesn't really worry me since the US could outspend them alone with out even involving the rest of NATO, and I don't see any ultimate winner of a cold war style conflict other than NATO.
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Sep 6, 2014 16:09
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This thread really makes me want to read some of Clancy's earlier books again. Am I the only one?
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Sep 6, 2014 16:25
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OhYeah posted:This thread really makes me want to read some of Clancy's earlier books again. Am I the only one? Maybe I'll go and pick up red storm rising from the library today. 
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Sep 6, 2014 16:56
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Meanwhile, what's on RT? IS to become a contractor to NATO, yep, that's good old RT alright.
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Sep 6, 2014 17:01
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The Estonian officer who was kidnapped yesterday is in Moscow now, according to this Polish source. http://www.rmf24.pl/fakty/swiat/news-estonski-oficer-przewieziony-do-moskwy-media-to-porwanie,nId,1496447 quote:The officer Estonian Internal Security Service was transferred to Moscow - said the Minister Urmas Paet Foreign Affairs. How to inform the Estonian media, the officer was yesterday "kidnapped" from the country near the border with Russia. The president of Estonia made a statement yesterday that the officer was on Estonian soil when he was abducted and they have the evidence to prove it. The Russian story has changed a couple of times, but it now seems they are saying he was in Russia at the time he was detained. Here's an Estonian link with video. http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/valismaa/video-fsb-toimetas-kohveri-moskvasse?id=69685977 HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Sep 6, 2014 |
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Sep 6, 2014 17:03
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Cat Mattress posted:Meanwhile, what's on RT? IS to become a contractor to NATO, yep, that's good old RT alright. This has to be the most schizophrenic news site ever 
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Sep 6, 2014 17:06
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Cat Mattress posted:Meanwhile, what's on RT? IS to become a contractor to NATO, yep, that's good old RT alright. Man, I used to read Pepe Escobar pretty regularly. He always had this annoying anything-the-West-does-is-bad tendency but since the start of this crap he's become a total, paid-for Russian shill and it's kind of sad.
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Sep 6, 2014 17:08
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timma85 posted:Those articles didn't seem to differentiate between birth rates of ethnic Russians and the birth rates of other minorities in Russia. Everything I've read seems to show the Muslim minorities birth rates are higher then ethnic Russians and the authors of these articles did not seem to specify if they meant ethnic Russians or simply having a Russian passport = Russian. Russian minorities especially the Muslim Russians in the Caucasus area probably have little loyalty to the current regime. 
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Sep 6, 2014 17:15
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farraday posted:There are some things here people should know. Alright, I did not consider that at all. It does make sense. I mean, I do hope you're right and Russia continues dying out. I've been worried about this trend possibly being reversed 
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Sep 6, 2014 17:29
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My Imaginary GF posted:No, I'm saying "Russia is not currently as independent and influential in the world as Brazil." Right, and I showed you how you were 100% wrong to say this. Maybe you should stop pulling things out of your rear end, especially when multiple people have told you you're wrong on the topic. quote:Russia should've realized how its refusal to completely disarm its nuclear stockpile would influence NATO's perception of them as remaining a threat. Russia has actually been much more enthusiastic about arms reduction treaties over the past 20 years than the US, so... A Buttery Pastry posted:Then the problem is the expansion, because there was nothing NATO could really do about the disparity of strength unless it decided to actively subsidize the Russian military. Right, I'm not saying NATO was wrong to not draw down its strength to Russian levels - I'm just saying that it's a factor in the "Balance of Threat." quote:As you yourself has pointed out, Russia still has a bunch of nukes. What difference does NATO bordering Russia really make, except ensure the independence of states wishing to remain independent of Russia? Unless that is encroaching on Russia in itself. Does the independence of Russia include a sphere of influence big enough that Russia can exist as an autarky? Well, once again, I go back to Mearscheimer's example: would the US be okay with a Chinese-led alliance that was intent on containing the US expanding into Mexico? The answer is almost certainly "no." Ukraine may have better reasons for joining NATO than Mexico would have in joining the hypothetical Chinese-led alliance, but it doesn't change the fact that the US would be pretty justified in feeling threatened. Plus, as I pointed out earlier, when you have National Endowment for Democracy President Carl Gershman saying this about the overthrow of Yanukovych... quote:“Ukraine’s choice to join Europe will accelerate the demise of the ideology of Russian imperialism that Putin represents...Russians, too, face a choice, and Putin may find himself on the losing end not just in the near abroad but within Russia itself.” ...then yeah, again - it's hard to blame the Russian government for feeling threatened. Majorian fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Sep 6, 2014 |
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Sep 6, 2014 17:29
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Speaking of international analysis - does anyone have some handy links for geopol analysis websites that are actually, you know, good?
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Sep 6, 2014 17:32
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Fabulous Knight posted:Russia's population is growing. I don't know, maybe it's not permanent and annexing Crimea and three million people helped, but that's in addition to natural growth. Mark Adomanis is basically mightypeon with a newspaper column, if this comparison helps the thread. Mark's entire shtick is talking about how great and amazing Putin's Russia has become, plus "debunking" any portrayal of Russia as a kleptocratic corrupt shithole as outdated American propaganda used to scare EU business away from Russia and toward the US. His favorite past-time earlier this year was squirming and distancing himself from Russia's annexation of Crimea, but looks like it's all back to normal now. If you're actually interested in the topic, you can look here, but you will need google translate: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2014/0601/tema01.php. That's just their more recent analysis, if I search further into the archives, I can find more. I wouldn't recommend you do that though, since you will be revealing yourself participating in anti-Russian slander and sabotage, get arrested and sent to the GULAG http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Census_(1937)  
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Sep 6, 2014 17:38
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double nine posted:Speaking of international analysis - does anyone have some handy links for geopol analysis websites that are actually, you know, good? Some of the blogs on Foreign Policy are pretty good - I especially like Steve Walt's. Jeffrey Lewis' one there is pretty good too, but I like his main one at https://armscontrolwonk.com. It all depends on what type of geopolitics you're interested in though.
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Sep 6, 2014 17:45
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Typo posted:Paradox Victoria II style Great Power rankings: USA would have a smaller economy but I think their military power rating would firmly keep them at #1
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Sep 6, 2014 17:46
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Fabulous Knight posted:No, CIS is just this really useless association of post-Soviet states. I'm not sure what they do exactly. It was meant to be a sort of Commonwealth equivalent, but it's not even that. You are perhaps thinking of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which is a Russia-led military alliance of sorts, featuring the usual suspects in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. They don't make a lot of noise. Several post-Soviet states were members in the 90s but left for different reasons. The most major thing the commonwealth was involved in over the past 2 decades or so was participating in international sporting events as a unified team.
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Sep 6, 2014 17:51
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Killer-of-Lawyers posted:How do they think the US stole the government in Kiev? Is this some sort of bizzaro world where if they say that the US was behind the coup enough it'll suddenly become true? The US has done enough dumb things, people don't need to make things up. Also how is it supposed to be a "coup" if the military wasn't involved? hint: Russia is terrified of domestic protest!
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Sep 6, 2014 17:59
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DarkCrawler posted:USA would have a smaller economy but I think their military power rating would firmly keep them at #1 Majorian posted:Right, I'm not saying NATO was wrong to not draw down its strength to Russian levels - I'm just saying that it's a factor in the "Balance of Threat." Majorian posted:Well, once again, I go back to Mearscheimer's example: would the US be okay with a Chinese-led alliance that was intent on containing the US expanding into Mexico? The answer is almost certainly "no." Ukraine may have better reasons for joining NATO than Mexico would have in joining the hypothetical Chinese-led alliance, but it doesn't change the fact that the US would be pretty justified in feeling threatened. Plus, as I pointed out earlier, when you have National Endowment for Democracy President Carl Gershman saying this about the overthrow of Yanukovych...
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Sep 6, 2014 18:06
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A Buttery Pastry posted:It all essentially comes back to Russia wanting to be its own pole in a multipolar world. Well, at this point I think they'd settle for being treated as a Great Power, which they are, by any meaningful definition. quote:Being opposed to the imperialist ideology Putin represents is only a threat to Putin because he espouses it. Well, but as you can imagine, the Russian people don't exactly cotton to Westerners coming in and telling them that they need to reorganize their government and relationship to the state. They feel like they tried that once already, and it turned out very poorly for them. That's what Mearscheimer is talking about when he cites Russian perceptions of "social engineering." They see their former client-states joining NATO and the EU, and they're afraid that once they're encircled, they'll be forced to basically go through the 90's again. It's not just Putin and his cronies that feel threatened by the possibility of Ukraine joining the Western orbit. Also, although the ABM sites that were supposed to be stationed in Poland, and may still be there someday, probably wouldn't have ever become a real threat to Russia's ability to maintain strategic parity, Russia interprets that as basically a violation of the bilateral understanding. Once that line is crossed, they reason, what else is NATO going to station in former Warsaw Pact states? How long can Russia guarantee a second-strike ability against the US?
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Sep 6, 2014 18:15
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double nine posted:Speaking of international analysis - does anyone have some handy links for geopol analysis websites that are actually, you know, good? For this area? https://eurasianet.org
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Sep 6, 2014 18:21
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UlwMZ2zZVc This was posted on Reddit earlier today, I went through this thread and the last and don't think it's been posted here yet -- sorry if it has. It's Yatsenyuk commenting on the situation without realising he was being recorded: quote:It's an undisguised Russian aggression out there now. Their army. He seems utterly defeated from the video.
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Sep 6, 2014 18:30
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Zohar posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UlwMZ2zZVc Who was he saying this to? I never thought I'd feel bad for him.
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Sep 6, 2014 18:34
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Fabulous Knight posted:Russia's population is growing. I don't know, maybe it's not permanent and annexing Crimea and three million people helped, but that's in addition to natural growth. Except that's largely occuring in Muslim areas and the Russian Central government is....shall we say disturbed by this.
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Sep 6, 2014 18:35
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Fabulous Knight posted:Alright, I did not consider that at all. It does make sense. No offense but that's just a little bit extreme, I don't particularly want any people to die out
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Sep 6, 2014 18:38
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DarkCrawler posted:USA would have a smaller economy but I think their military power rating would firmly keep them at #1 USA also has really high prestige score even after they took a hit to it after the NSA event
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Sep 6, 2014 18:39
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Typo posted:No offense but that's just a little bit extreme, I don't particularly want any people to die out Yeah, plus an imploding Russia serves no one but extremist groups and possibly China. It would be a huge power vacuum and an even huger proliferation risk.
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Sep 6, 2014 18:41
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Yeah, I have a feeling the Russians wouldn't go out quietly, also population growth has stabilized. That said, it is interesting to see how the discussion has turned toward hatred/desire of death of ethnically Russian people themselves. It is pretty interesting to "justifiable xenophobia." As far as shock therapy, it didn't just have a mixed result in the former Soviet Union, not all of Eastern Europe did very well with it especially Hungary. I am also skeptical that Western advisers didn't foresee some of the problems with it and urged the Russians to push on anyway. Either way, a big part of shock therapy was that unprofitable state firms would be shut down immediately, considering the number of factory towns in the former Soviet Union that meant numerous communities would instantly be flattened and it is pretty predictable the political influence such an event is going to have on a population. The IMF made it worse and Russia only recovered largely in part (ironically enough) of Glass-Steagall and energy speculation in the 2000s. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Sep 6, 2014 |
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Sep 6, 2014 19:15
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, I have a feeling the Russians wouldn't go out quietly, also population growth has stabilized.
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Sep 6, 2014 19:20
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