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Majorian posted:I agree with you that NATO is intended to be a defensive alliance, but there's the thing: defensive alliances can become offensive ones fairly quickly. Look at the Delian League for example. The fear that Russia feels with regard to NATO expansion is that things like ABM sites in former Warsaw Pact states will be able to put a dent in Russia's second strike capabilities. If the US attains nuclear superiority over them, they worry that it will allow NATO to push them around, as they think happened in the 90's. Hey Majorian, you should post that amazing link you posted the last time you were talking about the ABM sites threatening Russian nuclear parity. You remember the time you were presented with evidence to the contrary, you did your normal routine of shifting the goalposts (you see it will be expanded 1000 fold!) and eventually threw out some junk article from a dude who claimed it was really a threat *not because they were missile INTERCEPTORS*, but because they were obviously going to be IRBMs with nuclear MIRVs. This was because, you see, kinetic kill vehicles could never possibly work against ballistic missiles and thus they were obviously REALLY going to be offensive first-strike IRBMs. Then, as I recall, you argued that Russia actually believed such things. Or are you back to saying Russia is threatened by a grand total of 10 interceptors for which the current arsenal of Russian missiles already has countermeasures specifically to defeat - and from a location they can't actually intercept the vast bulk of Russian nuclear missiles? Because I'd be happy to throw out the same facts again to show how full of poo poo you are on that one. If that's not the case and you're still claiming Russia fears them because ~hilarious conspiracy theories~ you should still post it again so that it's absolutely clear to people how terrible your argument is. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 01:44 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 01:21
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I now crave war in Eastern Europe just so this thread has something to talk about that isn't an endless an unbearable newsless circlejerk. Can anyone at least say if there's any new about the "ceasefire", what with heavy fighting between Ukraine and separatists at the airport? Have officials from any side reacted publicly yet? What about Mariupol, is it still in Ukrainian hands or did separatists take it?
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Sep 14, 2014 01:45
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Dolash posted:I now crave war in Eastern Europe just so this thread has something to talk about that isn't an endless an unbearable newsless circlejerk. If they had taken Mariupol you would almost certainly have heard about it. The attack at the airport was repulsed, at the moment I don't think there's any major conflagration going on. DPR representatives have apparently disavowed the substance of the Minsk Agreement though.
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Sep 14, 2014 02:05
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Dolash posted:I now crave war in Eastern Europe just so this thread has something to talk about that isn't an endless an unbearable newsless circlejerk. The latest news in the ukraine reddit is that another aid convoy has entered eastern ukraine without permission or inspection, no official has commented on the violation of the ceasefire and the fighting for the airport is actually ongoing, they repelled an assault yesterday and today there seems to be a new one.
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Sep 14, 2014 02:10
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Warbadger posted:Hey Majorian, you should post that amazing link you posted the last time you were talking about the ABM sites threatening Russian nuclear parity. You remember the time you were presented with evidence to the contrary, you did your normal routine of shifting the goalposts (you see it will be expanded 1000 fold!) and eventually threw out some junk article from a dude who claimed it was really a threat *not because they were missile INTERCEPTORS*, but because they were obviously going to be IRBMs with nuclear MIRVs. This was because, you see, kinetic kill vehicles could never possibly work against ballistic missiles and thus they were obviously REALLY going to be offensive first-strike IRBMs. Then, as I recall, you argued that Russia actually believed such things. Or are you back to saying Russia is threatened by a grand total of 10 interceptors for which the current arsenal of Russian missiles already has countermeasures specifically to defeat - and from a location they can't actually intercept the vast bulk of Russian nuclear missiles? Because I'd be happy to throw out the same facts again to show how full of poo poo you are on that one. If that's not the case and you're still claiming Russia fears them because ~hilarious conspiracy theories~ you should still post it again so that it's absolutely clear to people how terrible your argument is. Is this another idea Majorian borrowed from Mearsheimer? The professor believes that ABM systems are ineffective to the point of being useless: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DMn4PmiDeQ&t=4305s
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Sep 14, 2014 02:41
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Dilkington posted:Is this another idea Majorian borrowed from Mearsheimer? The professor believes that ABM systems are ineffective to the point of being useless: Nah, it was some random Russian "defense analyst", much more crackpot than Mearsheimer. Whether Majorian originally got the idea that it was a legitimate argument before he feverishly Googled for *any article possible to back it up*...well...maybe? Warbadger fucked around with this message at 03:18 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 03:09
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Has anyone seen Majorian and Mearsheimer in the same room at the same time?
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Sep 14, 2014 03:11
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Here's a Dutch video of some journalists being attacked while trying to access the MH17 crash site. http://nos.nl/video/697882-weer-gevechten-bij-rampplek-rudy-bouma-in-de-greppel.html Here is a Ukrainian tank column in Luhansk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e607Tj70tfo A man in Sevastopol wears a t shirt with the slogan "I **** your sanctions".  And here is one of the humanitarian trucks having the aid it hauled to Luhansk unloaded.  Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk is very pessimistic and claims Putin won't be happy until he's invaded all of Ukraine. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/14/world/europe/putin-intent-on-taking-all-of-ukraine-leader-says.html?_r=0 HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 03:32 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 03:30
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What's the source for that photo purporting to be the contents of the "aid" truck?
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Sep 14, 2014 03:42
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Discendo Vox posted:What's the source for that photo purporting to be the contents of the "aid" truck? LiveUAA map uses this tweet for the source. https://twitter.com/Kosarev_RT/status/510827110030536704 Here is another link explaining the convoy that went to Luhansk was not authorized by the Ukrainian government, nor were they allowed to check the trucks at the border. Anything could have been on those trucks. http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/09/14/378662/russia-aid-illegally-enters-ukraine/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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Sep 14, 2014 03:51
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Bizarre, the tweet is actually saying that that truck is aid. The source is apparently Roman Kosarev, an employee of, surprise! RT.
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Sep 14, 2014 05:00
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I find it amazing that people still argue that Ukraine is trying to enter the US's orbit because of Amerimaiden and the Ukraine-US Association Agreement. No wait it was called Euromaiden and the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. Well you see obviously everything is controlled by the US... Actually it is lizard people that control the US government. Or was it the Jews. I can't keep the conspiracy theories straight.
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Sep 14, 2014 05:04
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karthun posted:I find it amazing that people still argue that Ukraine is trying to enter the US's orbit because of Amerimaiden and the Ukraine-US Association Agreement. No wait it was called Euromaiden and the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. Well you see obviously everything is controlled by the US... Actually it is lizard people that control the US government. Or was it the Jews. I can't keep the conspiracy theories straight. Wait till I tell you about the Holy Roman Empire
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Sep 14, 2014 05:21
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The only way that NATO is a threat to Russia is that it stops Russia from having a free hand in Europe. In other words it stops Russia from treating each and every last nation in Europe like a total loving rear end in a top hat, just like it treated all the countries in eastern europe when it had the chance during the cold war. NATO being an existential threat to Russia is just retarded. Nobody wants to invade that shithole, and obviously Russia has nukes. Trust me, there's nothing so valuable in Russia that NATO would want to walk through nukes to get. The US certainly doesn't want to go back to an environment where we had to live with the threat of mutual annihilation like we did during the cold war. We're literally happy enough listening to Miley Cyrus and watching football. We don't want to nuke and we don't want to get nuked. NATO is a defensive alliance except when it comes to the occasional 3rd world conflict. The only thing NATO stops is Russia from treating everyone like an rear end in a top hat. And while Russia probably is upset at that, they'll just have to loving deal with it.
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Sep 14, 2014 05:22
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karthun posted:I find it amazing that people still argue that Ukraine is trying to enter the US's orbit because of Amerimaiden and the Ukraine-US Association Agreement. No wait it was called Euromaiden and the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. Well you see obviously everything is controlled by the US... Actually it is lizard people that control the US government. Or was it the Jews. I can't keep the conspiracy theories straight. While Europe and America have shown some pretty glaring differences of opinion in this particular crisis, entering the European community (and especially advancing toward NATO membership) does more or less put a country into America's sphere. When people talk about "The Western World", it's usually America & Friends. The depressing thing to me is that the aspect of the West that appears to have most inspired the Euromaidan is the rule of law, reduced corruption, transparent elections and just generally a fair and functioning civil society - a glaring difference between the Russian world of oligarchy and dictatorship. The discussion focuses so much on spheres of influence and military force projection and so little on why a people would be drawn to one way of life over the other, such as the promise of self-determination. Europe's indifference to a nation drawn by their best traits is weirdly galling. I almost wish it really had been "Amerimaidan" and Ukrainians had specifically yearned for the American way of life, since for their faults America has a lot of pride tied up in being seen as an inspiration and attacking people for that would be seen as an attack on American pride. Right now America's support for Ukraine is limited by how far Europe is willing to respond to an attack by proxy on their values, and it turns out that's not very far. Unless that value is money, of course, which makes the sanctions almost as offensive as the Russian incursion. Dolash fucked around with this message at 06:25 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 06:23
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Actually, the US government (and every other government) should consider the interests of every person on Earth. I'll settle for them not just completely discounting the lives of anyone outside a few specific countries (at best) though, maybe we can work up from there. 9 times out of 10 when you hear someone invoking 'geopolitical interests' as a justification for some foreign policy action they're a sociopathic warmonger and possibly an employee of a neocon-aligned beltway think tank, just FYI
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Sep 14, 2014 06:27
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icantfindaname posted:9 times out of 10 when you hear someone invoking 'geopolitical interests' as a justification for some foreign policy action they're a sociopathic warmonger and possibly an employee of a neocon-aligned beltway think tank, just FYI
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Sep 14, 2014 07:00
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Discendo Vox posted:What's the source for that photo purporting to be the contents of the "aid" truck? What is it, anyway? It doesn't look much like a military vehicle to me, and if it is, why bother painting it white?
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Sep 14, 2014 07:06
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Warbadger posted:Hey Majorian, you should post that amazing link you posted the last time you were talking about the ABM sites threatening Russian nuclear parity. You know, I don't remember which one it was - all I remember is that you didn't have a particularly good response to it. Was it something like this one? quote:The United States has spent over one hundred billion dollars to try to create a capability to intercept the strategic ballistic missiles of first Russia, then China, and now those that North Korea and Iran may deploy in the future. At first glance, this investment appears to be a logical response to the most dangerous vector of nuclear attack. Yet strategic missile defense never yielded a leak-proof defense during the Cold War and has not discouraged the active pursuit of ballistic missile programs since. Missing the most likely contemporary security threat to the United States—terrorist groups acquiring and using nuclear, radiological, or biological weapons—strategic missile defense has increased the overall threat by fostering Russian and Chinese offensive force enhancements and complicating negotiated reductions in offensive ballistic missile arsenals that would lower threat assessments all around. e: This one also works: quote:Although the initial 10 interceptors obviously pose no danger to a deterrent force the size of Russia’s, Moscow is certainly not convinced that this will be the end of the story. Despite the fact that there are no stated plans to go beyond these deployments in Poland and the Czech Republic, the Russians have to assume that they are only the first sites in a series of missile defense bases.[3] Ostensibly aimed at “rogue” states such as North Korea and Iran and potentially for use against rising “peer competitors” such as China, they could be augmented and eventually add up to a genuine threat to Russian strategic missile forces. Russian political and military figures have already deemed the deployments “destabilizing,” coded language implying that U.S. missile defense deployments in Europe could lead to a potential increase in Russian offensive forces, higher alert rates, and/or a launch-on-warning policy. e2: Jeffrey Lewis also has a good piece on Russia's fears regarding the possibility of turning ABM sites in Poland into strategic nuclear sites: quote:a prohibition on nuclear-armed missile defense interceptors would enhance strategic stability by reinforcing the prohibition on intermediate-range nuclear forces. Some existing missile defense interceptors exceed MTCR thresholds. Some planned versions may exceed INF treaty thresholds, which is bad news for a treaty that doesn’t need more bad news. A while back, I asked David Wright to do a basic calculation and he concluded that alow-speed SM-3 Block II (4.5 km/s burnout) could reach Moscow from Poland with a 200 kg payload, and the high-speed Block II (5.5 km/s burnout) could reach Moscow from either Poland or Romania with a 200 kg payload. A ban on nuclear-armed ABM interceptors, combined with some confidence-building measures, might make the difference in preserving INF. And yet another piece highlighting Russia's concerns with ABM sites in its traditional backyard: quote:The decision to withdraw from the ABM Treaty and begin construction of ballistic missile defenses in Central Europe has elicited a decidedly negative response from Russia, and could bring about potentially dangerous repercussions for U.S.-Russian relations. Russia considers the prospect of ABM installations being built in nearby Central Europe an imminent threat, and it has prompted comments from Russian officials regarding the potential for a new arms race. Considering its current arsenal, it is clear to all sides that Russia's ballistic missile launch capabilities would remain wholly unchallenged by the proposed maximum of 10 interceptors in Poland. Russia's primary concern, however, lies within the possibility of an eventual U.S. augmentation of the system.' While the U.s. has assured Russia no such thing would happen, the 2007 Missile Defense Agency (MDA) proposal for the project leaves room for discussion on the matter: Could it be, Warbadger, that in denying that Russia has legitimate security concerns over ABM sites and encirclement by NATO, you are showing that you really don't know what you're talking about? Gantolandon posted:Since the fall of the Soviet Union, there were zero indications that NATO or any of its members wants to attack Russia. Look, I get that there were zero intended indications that NATO posed a threat to Russia, but you do understand that countries and organizations don't always succeed in signaling exactly what they want to, right? Majorian fucked around with this message at 07:48 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 07:12
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The New Black posted:What is it, anyway? It doesn't look much like a military vehicle to me, and if it is, why bother painting it white? Trucks are considered a dual-use technology. Strap a gun on the roof and you have a police patrol vehicle. It might be white because of primer or to fulfill some official "peacekeeping" role in the separatist republics In fact, it looks like it could be a mobile command post. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 07:16 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 07:13
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Vladimir Putin posted:The only way that NATO is a threat to Russia is that it stops Russia from having a free hand in Europe. In other words it stops Russia from treating each and every last nation in Europe like a total loving rear end in a top hat, just like it treated all the countries in eastern europe when it had the chance during the cold war. Did you know that Rome only fought defensive wars, the Crusades were about defending the faith, Germany World War 1 defending itself and again defending itself in WW2. Same for Japan WW2 was about defending itself from Western dominance. Napoleon was only trying to defend the revolution. Iraq War 2 defending the US from all those WMDs. It's funny everyone is defending all the time yet all these Wars and conquest just seem to happen. A war being defensive is a meaningless term that is defined by the victor. NATO is the most powerful military alliance on the planet. If the key members decide to use military force somewhere they can do it. Then add in people fight over shitholes all the time. Hell Ukraine is a shithole yet both the West and Russia are fighting a proxy war there. If you can't understand how surrounding a country with a military alliance can be seen as threatening you are ignoring the entire history of the human race. axelord fucked around with this message at 07:19 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 07:14
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Here's a Dutch video of some journalists being attacked while trying to access the MH17 crash site. That's very cute little Unimog.
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Sep 14, 2014 07:27
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Young Freud posted:Trucks are considered a dual-use technology. Strap a gun on the roof and you have a police patrol vehicle. It might be white because of primer or to fulfill some official "peacekeeping" role in the separatist republics A fair point. In any case although it doesn't look like an APC or anything, it clearly isn't a regular truck. Some kind of command or communications thing seems plausible.
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Sep 14, 2014 07:28
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Building up an ABM shield/system that can completely nullify the Russian nuclear arsenal and then bringing Ukraine into NATO seems like the most permanent solution, though I suppose a truly neutral Ukraine could work well enough. I just really have my doubts about Ukraine's ability to remain neutral, in the face of an expansionist Russia which seems to err on the side of "They're coming right for us!" whenever anything slightly counter to their plans happens. The problem with building up an ABM shield that nullifies Russia's nuclear arsenal is twofold, though. First of all, it's unlikely that we'll be able to build ABMs faster than they'll be able to build more nukes, to the point that it nullifies their entire strategic arsenal. Secondly, and more importantly, even if we did manage to claim nuclear superiority over Russia, it would create a huge proliferation risk. The last thing the world needs is for Russia to once again have a bloated, poorly-secured, badly-maintained nuclear stockpile that's easy for terrorist or organized criminal groups to break into. icantfindaname posted:9 times out of 10 when you hear someone invoking 'geopolitical interests' as a justification for some foreign policy action they're a sociopathic warmonger and possibly an employee of a neocon-aligned beltway think tank, just FYI You realize that the neocon response to this situation would be to expand NATO and possibly militarily intervene in Ukraine, right? Majorian fucked around with this message at 08:00 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 07:29
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You guys don't understand, it's a matrioshka aid truck.
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Sep 14, 2014 08:12
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Majorian posted:The problem with building up an ABM shield that nullifies Russia's nuclear arsenal is twofold, though. First of all, it's unlikely that we'll be able to build ABMs faster than they'll be able to build more nukes, to the point that it nullifies their entire strategic arsenal. Secondly, and more importantly, even if we did manage to claim nuclear superiority over Russia, it would create a huge proliferation risk. The last thing the world needs is for Russia to once again have a bloated, poorly-secured, badly-maintained nuclear stockpile that's easy for terrorist or organized criminal groups to break into. Majorian posted:You realize that the neocon response to this situation would be to expand NATO and possibly militarily intervene in Ukraine, right?
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Sep 14, 2014 09:09
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A Buttery Pastry posted:So you agree now that Russian whining about ABM sites in Eastern Europe is unfounded? No, I don't, actually. The fact that Russia would be able to overwhelm an American missile shield in the short-to-medium term doesn't mean they don't perceive it as a threat. Remember, it is precisely this perception of threat that would cause them to build up their arsenal again, which is something we'd like to avoid.
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Sep 14, 2014 09:16
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Again, the 'NATO enlargement' argument is basically loving ridiculous. Here's the dichotomy: NATO 'enlarges' by simply existing as a cool place for cool countries that want to be able to have a free society to hang out and protect each other. Russia 'enlarges' by slaughtering everything in its way - it's own citizens, foreign citizens, it really doesn't matter because they'll just lie about what's going on. Arguing that 'NATO enlargement' is goddamn near the point of arguing that Russia is fearful of 'democratic encirclement'. NATO doesn't go "we want Ukraine" and then roll in tanks to claim it. They simply go "hey look we're not going to kill you!" and Ukraine thinks "hey that sounds like a pretty swell deal compared to the slave collar that Vlad offers." And lets be 100% clear here, this all kicked off not because Ukraine wanted to join NATO but because the people of Ukraine wanted to join the European Union - a non-military, purely economic partnership. That is ultimately what sparked this entire last year of nonsense in Eastern Europe - Ukraine's people wanting to follow the model of other ex-bloc states and fix their country. Russia's feeling of being threatened here has nothing to do with NATO in anything more than some bizarre historical propaganda, and everything to do with the fact that they don't want a stable, prosperous Ukraine. Because that sort of state inevitably draws away from the dictatorial hellhole that Putin is building.
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Sep 14, 2014 09:30
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Majorian posted:No, I don't, actually. The fact that Russia would be able to overwhelm an American missile shield in the short-to-medium term doesn't mean they don't perceive it as a threat. Remember, it is precisely this perception of threat that would cause them to build up their arsenal again, which is something we'd like to avoid. - Do you believe ABM sites in Eastern Europe would represent a serious counter to the Russian nuclear arsenal? Or would the scale and placement of it be such that in reality it would only serve as a counter to smaller nuclear powers, such as a hypothetical future Iran? Or, assuming it was scaled up massively, would it represent a major linchpin component of the ABM shield compared to ABM sites in North America? Please do not include Russia's perception of things in this answer. I know it's not irrelevant, but it's hard to discuss this issue with you if you don't state your own personal views.
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Sep 14, 2014 09:39
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Hey, Cro-goons, our news are talking about floods in Croatia, and it doesn't sound pretty. How bad is it? Is it just yet another minor flood or something more serious this time?
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Sep 14, 2014 11:12
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poo poo's hosed up and bullshit again. The rain just won't stop falling, Sava is getting uppity again, cities are getting prepared and some villages are already flooded. Most of this is happening in north-western Croatia and eastern Slovenia, with one Slovenian casualty. Here's a quick article, more will be known later. http://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/...smo/771262.aspx
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Sep 14, 2014 11:47
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my dad posted:Why the gently caress are they using Braille on a visual medium? Going out on a limb somewhat, I would guess that some "make goverment stuff more accessible to disabled people" plan exists in the EU. This propably works via financial incentives. I would not at all be surprised if that goes like "yeah, putting braille script on things like goverment communictations etc. gets you EU monies". This led to some Jobbik guys going like "ok, how do we get EU monies and not give any benefits to minorities and/or disabled people? Muahahaha, put Braille Script on our websites!"
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Sep 14, 2014 13:05
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On the Poroshenko vs. Yats angle, I think you are forgetting that this is a threesome also involving Kolomoisky. btw, if you look at the "Duke of Dnipros" recent actions, he is busily building up his own power in a way very characteristic for him, and tries to stay out of the headlines in the meantime. I think at this junction, Poroshenko doesnt dare to try reining him in (Kolomoisky recently delivered a clear Sfregio to Poroshenko, without any reaction by the latter), and Yats sees him (because the Seperatist would, with good reason, murder/execute Kolomoisky if they could) as an ally against both Poroshenko and the Seperatists. However, Kolomoisky is now going for federalism (he now fully owns Dnipro, and does not want to pay taxes to Kiev), which could strain his relations with Yats. Another thing against Kolomoisky is that Putin/Russia would see him cast down because he represents Direct Oligarch rule, with no state existing other than himself. This is not a precedent/example that Putin would like to take root in the Russian oligarchy.
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Sep 14, 2014 13:21
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According to this tweet the aid consists of Snickers candy bars, bottled water and toiletries, and it's all handed out by men in uniform. In Luhansk Russian soldiers guard a statue of the founder of the NKVD.  15 members of the French Parliament are going to Moscow to express their support to Putin in the war against Ukraine.  Per MoD Geletey: if the guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum will not help Ukraine. Ukraine will create weapons that could protect country from Russia. Video of Donetsk train station under attack posted today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4sSAP03lIw FEMEN protesters demonstrate at a polling station in Moscow  http://i.imgur.com/RSPLrPy.jpgTevery Best posted:You guys don't understand, it's a matrioshka aid truck. Heh, yep, and it's a P-142 Command Staff Vehicle. HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 13:53 on Sep 14, 2014 |
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Sep 14, 2014 13:34
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The Hess Truck toy for Christmas 2014 should be a Russian Aid Convoy that is a Nesting Doll of trucks carrying trucks.
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Sep 14, 2014 13:54
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:FEMEN protesters demonstrate at a polling station in Moscow https://twitter.com/femeninna/status/511109006593904640 Seems like even that is Kremlin fabrication.
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Sep 14, 2014 14:04
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Hazamuth posted:https://twitter.com/femeninna/status/511109006593904640 loving hell, this is just... Why? Why even do this? Are they just trying to push the limits of how much they can try and warp reality? How can there even BE people in the west that think that Russia is in any way democratic or free at this point?
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Sep 14, 2014 14:11
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:15 members of the French Parliament are going to Moscow to express their support to Putin in the war against Ukraine.
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Sep 14, 2014 14:12
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Finlander posted:loving hell, this is just... Why? Why even do this? Welcome to the world of hybrid warfare son. Nothing makes sense anymore.
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Sep 14, 2014 14:14
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Hazamuth posted:https://twitter.com/femeninna/status/511109006593904640 Another brilliant policy by Vladimir Putin, our fearless leader. Even a fool knows more people will come to vote in local elections if there is a chance to see some naked babes. More boobs means more democracy! Perhaps the people of Ferguson should try something like this?
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Sep 14, 2014 14:16
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