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Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

Professor Shark posted:

Haha they want Chinese "specialists", aka slave labor, and are also warning us that our hesitancy to irrecoverably destroy our environment is going to make us lose out, because that's how natural resources work.

It's like a fuckin' Deadwood episode.

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JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line
special skills like "will work for nothing" and "will allow me to shack them up 4 to a room and charge them each $500/month for the privilege"

:barf:

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
I take back everything I said earlier, that op-ed is quite the demonstration of international business genius.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
hahahahah

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
https://businessincanada.com/2014/09/17/canada-housing-bubble-china-corruption-crackdown/

quote:


In the Financial Times, Jamil Anderlini writes that the Chinese Communist party is turning to western governments – including Canada – to help in its quest to track down individuals who have moved themselves, and more importantly, their wealth, overseas.

The latest escalation of China’s anti-corruption campaign was brought to our attention by the FT’s Matthew Klein, who noted that it could be “ultra-bearish” for Canadian housing.

If the Chinese government is successful in preventing more funds from flowing into Canadian real estate, or able to force individuals to repatriate wealth held overseas, it could cause a fair amount of stress to the high-end segments in two of Canada’s hottest real estate markets, Toronto and Vancouver – especially for the latter.

That’s because, as CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal points out, the rate of home price appreciation in these cities has been particularly robust for the priciest properties, which also happen to be the type of homes that foreign buyers are reportedly the most likely to purchase:




quote:


“The higher-end segment…appears to be more vulnerable to price adjustments,” concludes Tal.

But here’s the rub: we don’t really have much of a clue as to the extent to which foreign inflows have fuelled home price appreciation. To borrow a title from another one of Tal’s notes, we’re “flying blind” on this matter.

In its survey on condo ownership, the Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation did not even attempt to identify the share of foreign investors in the market. Anecdotal accounts suggest that Asian money has contributed a great deal to Vancouver’s housing boom, with Macdonald Realty reporting that a little more than a third of its single family home sales in 2013 had a connection to China. But in this case, as the Financial Post’s Garry Marr observed, “connection to China” meant “having a Chinese name.”

The role that inflows from China have played is, at this point, a known unknown.

Whether the Chinese government’s corruption probe will cause more people and money to flee or have the opposite effect is also up for debate. A housing analyst based in Vancouver told us that any capital flight might be brought back to China due to capital fright – the fear of losing one’s head for running afoul of the ruling party’s policies.

“The corruption crackdown could accelerate outflows à la Argentina, or it could cause a repatriation of funds if officials attempt to repay bad debts so as to avoid jail time,” he said.

Tal’s colleague Avery Shenfeld acknowledges that the bulk of home price appreciation has come from the more bustling areas in the nation’s most bustling cities – that values are growing much faster in the urban core than the suburbs – but offers an explanation for why that’s the case that doesn’t center around foreign inflows.

“[C]entral Toronto and Vancouver increasingly look like Manhattan,” he writes. “The nearest available room to expand the single family housing stock is sufficiently distant, entailing a sufficiently troublesome commute, to be a very weak substitute for the core.”



Here's the FT article cited by Lucas Kawa:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6ec199d0-3cc5-11e4-871d-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3DUITVb3y

quote:

The anti-corruption campaign which has swept across China in the last two years has gone global, as Beijing seeks to enlist the help of western democratic governments in pursuing officials who flee overseas.

Underlining Beijing’s rising economic and political clout, Communist party officials have already launched an investigation into assets and individuals based in New Zealand, a country that counts China as its biggest trade partner. It is unclear whether that investigation was conducted inside New Zealand or from China, but investigators have requested permission to interview people in the country.

In an operation labelled “Fox Hunt 2014”, the party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, a shadowy organisation with a controversial human rights record, has set up a dedicated office to investigate allegedly corrupt officials who have absconded or sent relatives and assets abroad.

Beijing-based British, US, Canadian and Australian diplomats say they are all under increasing pressure to assist with the Fox Hunt campaign. Hundreds of officials and their associates have taken flight from China amid President Xi Jinping’s ever widening anti-corruption campaign.

But the opaque nature of the CCDI and its ambiguous legal status make it very difficult for any western democracy to co-operate.

The amount of money spirited out of China is enormous. The US-based non-profit group Global Financial Integrity estimates illegal flows out of China amounted to $2.83tn between 2005 and 2011.

The Financial Times has learnt that the wife, mistress and at least one associate of Cao Jianliao, detained former vice-mayor of the megalopolis Guangzhou, are the subjects of a CCDI investigation.

This is despite all of them, as well as Mr Cao’s child, being based in New Zealand and at least one of them being a New Zealand citizen.

Mr Cao was detained late last year, and state-controlled media reports have been filled in recent months with lurid tales of his alleged corruption and serial philandering. Mr Cao remains in detention and was unavailable for comment.
The CCDI reports directly to the Communist party and does not answer to courts or police. Although it technically has no legal power to arrest or convict suspects, in practice it can detain party members indefinitely on suspicion of “violating Party discipline”.

Human rights groups have frequently accused it of torture and inhumane treatment of suspects. Now this extralegal entity appears to be seeking extraterritorial reach beyond China’s borders.

New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the New Zealand Police said they had no knowledge of any CCDI investigation inside the country.

But two people with direct knowledge of the matter said both agencies were aware of the CCDI request and Chinese officials (although not necessarily CCDI officials) had sought access to interview Mr Cao’s relatives and associates on New Zealand soil.

Additional reporting by Gu Yu



namaste friends fucked around with this message at 00:52 on Sep 18, 2014

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Meanwhile in the UK.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/17/the-boes-understandable-split/?mod=WSJBlog

quote:

It shouldn’t be surprising that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is split on interest rates–the U.K.’s economic data are telling divergent stories.

Unemployment is falling sharply in Britain amid booming house prices and solid retail sales. But at the same time, inflation is well below the central bank’s target and wage growth remains subdued.

The latest data showed that the three month to July unemployment rate dropped to 6.2% from 6.4% in June. But the unofficial single month-basis jobless figure dropped to 5.9%–below the 6% to 6.5% range BOE economists only a few months ago thought was the stable rate, which is to say consistent with inflation neither rising nor falling.

Meanwhile, property values are ripping higher. U.K. house prices rose 12% on the year to July, with London posting a heady 19% rate. Given that in the middle of 2013 average house prices were already more than ten times average salaries across much of London and twenty times or more in certain central London districts, the gains over the past year make property impossibly expensive for the majority.

Especially given the anemic rate at which wages have been growing. Average earnings rose a mere 0.7% on the year to July. So even though annual inflation is running at just 1.5%, well below the BOE’s 2% target, workers are worse off.




quote:

The questions confronting the BOE are: how much labor market slack remains, and how quickly will wages start to move higher as that slack is absorbed?

The two dissenters in the BOE’s nine member policy committee figure earnings growth is a lagging indicator and will start to move sharply higher as employers struggle to find workers for an ever greater number of openings. And because monetary policy operates on a lag, rates need to start rising now, they argue.

The majority, on the other hand, think there are still plenty of workers and potential workers on short hours or working for themselves who would be keen to enter the traditional labor force. They also worry about the risk of a slowdown during the rest of the year amid sighs of global economic softness.

That’s not even to mention the risks associated with the Scottish independence referendum on Thursday. A decision to break away from the U.K. could well cause considerable market volatility and investor flight. But even a close ‘no’ vote would threaten to raise longer term uncertainty about the union and about where public policy might head as Westminster feels the need to be generous to the Scots to keep the peace.

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

All this chart shows is that you'd be stupid not to buy now it's your only chance you don't want to miss it

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

All this chart shows is that you'd be stupid not to buy now it's your only chance you don't want to miss it

I have two friends in London who have bought in the last month. One friend is on the verge of buying. I have one friend in Melbourne who's on the verge of buying.

In my circle of friends, I am the lone loser who rents.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Cultural Imperial posted:

I have two friends in London who have bought in the last month. One friend is on the verge of buying. I have one friend in Melbourne who's on the verge of buying.

In my circle of friends, I am the lone loser who rents.

Jeez, what's keeping you from growing up? Don't you want to be an adult. Just trying to relive your college days forever?

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

Bip Roberts posted:

Jeez, what's keeping you from growing up? Don't you want to be an adult. Just trying to relive your college days forever?

When you have kids you'll want the extra space, because human babies and children are much larger than human adults.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

I guess that's a cultural thing that kids=need a big house. Maybe because I mostly hang out with fellow working class people, but all the parents I know rent, often just 1-2 br apartments. You get a room, you kid or two get a room. What more space do you need? I mean more space is awesome but it's certainly not essential. Hell my wife grew up in 1br or even bachelor units along with her two parents, turned out fine.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Baronjutter posted:

I guess that's a cultural thing that kids=need a big house. Maybe because I mostly hang out with fellow working class people, but all the parents I know rent, often just 1-2 br apartments. You get a room, you kid or two get a room. What more space do you need? I mean more space is awesome but it's certainly not essential. Hell my wife grew up in 1br or even bachelor units along with her two parents, turned out fine.

This is actually causing severe, severe strain on families on assistance in BC and has for decades. Welfare rules state that children can't share a room with their parents, and children of different genders can't share a room either, oh and parents can't sleep in the living room. So if you're a single mother with a daughter and a son, trying to survive on assistance, you're up poo poo creek trying to find a 3 bedroom to rent on the laughable amount they give you to "live".

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

What the gently caress, this very recent and suburban ideas of how much space kids need is a god drat law?? I'm sure some well meaning ignorant pushed for it back in the day to ensure kids weren't living in what they considered slums. Why can't mom convert the living/common room into her bedroom? That was the norm in eastern europe, 2br was a luxury only for the rich or connected or big families. If you had a kid you'd make the bedroom the kid's bedroom, and get a little room divider and a sofa that converts to a bed.

There's a lot of poo poo like this that got entrenched into law post-war. It was all in the same of slum-clearing and suburbanizing the cities. Raising a kid anywhere other than a suburban cul de sac is basically child abuse and parking is a human right.

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you
When I was younger my brother, sister and I had to share a room and the room didn't even have a window.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Rime posted:

This is actually causing severe, severe strain on families on assistance in BC and has for decades. Welfare rules state that children can't share a room with their parents, and children of different genders can't share a room either, oh and parents can't sleep in the living room. So if you're a single mother with a daughter and a son, trying to survive on assistance, you're up poo poo creek trying to find a 3 bedroom to rent on the laughable amount they give you to "live".

There's something strangely prurient about an insistence that sibling's sleeping areas have to be separated by gender.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

There's something strangely prurient about an insistence that sibling's sleeping areas have to be separated by gender.

Indeed. I winced when I read that.

Lain Iwakura
Aug 5, 2004

The body exists only to verify one's own existence.

Taco Defender
The Bank Of Canada Thinks There’s A Massive Amount Of Discouraged Workers

quote:

When Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz held a press conference on Tuesday, there was one remark in particular that stood out: the rather elevated number of Canadians he believes have left the labour force because they’re discouraged.

“We estimate there is something like 200,000 youths who have withdrawn from the work force, we believe for discouragement reasons,” he said, “…and perhaps another 100,000 or so in the prime-age category, maybe more, who are also discouraged.”

According to a spokesperson from the Bank of Canada, the governor’s comments were drawing on internal research performed earlier this year. 200,000 discouraged youths is the approximate sum of the decline in youths participating in the labour market (157,000), the increase in the number of employed youth (28,000), and the increase in the number of involuntary part-time workers (47,000) from their pre-recession peaks.

Yeah. Strong and stable economy.

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you

Maybe these youths should just work harder and get rich, back in my day we didn't have none of this discouraged business

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

Can they buy houses? No?

Then who gives a gently caress?

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

Can they buy houses? No?

Then who gives a gently caress?

Everyone who views their house as their retirement fund should, that's for drat sure.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

Can they buy houses? No?

Then who gives a gently caress?

Well, this is an important indicator of the health of the economy. If young workers can find jobs, it sets their careers back by years. This in turn will exacerbate the decline of the economy as the boomers literally die off.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Rime posted:

Everyone who views their house as their retirement fund should, that's for drat sure.

"I think you are drawing a line between two unrelated things."

- :canada:

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

Rime posted:

Everyone who views their house as their retirement fund should, that's for drat sure.


Cultural Imperial posted:

Well, this is an important indicator of the health of the economy. If young workers can find jobs, it sets their careers back by years. This in turn will exacerbate the decline of the economy as the boomers literally die off.

:thejoke:

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost
I don't understand the term 'withdrawing from the workforce'. Does it mean that they quit their jobs and are just chronically-unemployed? Or are they underemployed? :confused:

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

melon cat posted:

I don't understand the term 'withdrawing from the workforce'. Does it mean that they quit their jobs and are just chronically-unemployed? Or are they underemployed? :confused:

They said gently caress it, stopped looking and went on welfare / moved back in with mom and dad. Since they're not actively looking for work, or haven't worked in over six months, they're no longer considered part of the active workforce.

They don't count toward unemployment statistics :ssh:

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

FrozenVent posted:

They don't count toward unemployment statistics :ssh:

Heeheehee

peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

Rime posted:

This is actually causing severe, severe strain on families on assistance in BC and has for decades. Welfare rules state that children can't share a room with their parents, and children of different genders can't share a room either, oh and parents can't sleep in the living room. So if you're a single mother with a daughter and a son, trying to survive on assistance, you're up poo poo creek trying to find a 3 bedroom to rent on the laughable amount they give you to "live".

Most nations around the world can survive in house with fewer than 3 bedrooms. I hate how Canadians think were "above" that.

http://inhabitat.com/how-big-is-your-home-see-how-your-space-compares-to-those-around-the-world/

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you
Just browsing Reddit, came across this winner:

http://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/2gvl6c/bought_a_newly_built_home_been_there_2_months/

quote:

Hi i recently bought a house with 5% down. Ive lived there for 2 months and i just got laid off from work. I can't afford to pay for the place at the moment so I plan on moving into my parents place until i can find another job.

What are my options? I know i can sell it, but are there any other options? Can i rent it out? if i can, what kinds of things would i have to do?

I do have some reserve that can keep me afloat for another month or 2.

I know it was a bad decision, but that's why i'm here.

The bank gave this guy a mortgage?

Lain Iwakura
Aug 5, 2004

The body exists only to verify one's own existence.

Taco Defender
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbzUPjc0N_g

Notice the age of the commercial: May 2012.

They're playing the poo poo out of this on City, CTV, and Global in Vancouver right now.

It's a mediocre building--so mediocre that it looks similar to its neighbouring building, a social housing project.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

peter banana posted:

Most nations around the world can survive in house with fewer than 3 bedrooms. I hate how Canadians think were "above" that.

http://inhabitat.com/how-big-is-your-home-see-how-your-space-compares-to-those-around-the-world/

I mean, we had to flout the law sometimes growing up out of necessity and just pray that Welfare didn't decide we were due for a "random" inspection (they can do this, they'll assess the value of your possessions as well). The stresses that the system gleefully imposes on people like my poor mother are entirely non-conducive to getting people off welfare.

Rime fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Sep 19, 2014

JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line
gotta waste taxpayer money aggressively making sure no one is gaming the system

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe


https://twitter.com/LJKawa/status/513049360087523328

Evan Siddall - Genius
http://www.cmhc.ca/en/corp/nero/sp/2014/2014-09-19-1400.cfm?WT.cg_n=TWT_COR2

If you guys don't already do so, I suggest following Luke Kawa. He's my second favorite econ related twitterer after Ben Rabidoux. If you can tolerate his baseball tweeting.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
Yeah, he's good. Took me a while to take him seriously due to the stupid-frat-boy-bro look he cultivates in his avatar.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Yay like the 6th condo project in the last year has gone bankrupt or simply vanished or tried to gently caress us on billing. This never used to happen. Booming healthy construction industry! christ if it's not a company I recognise and we've done lots of work with in the past we should ask for half up front or something. I guess we're only out a couple thousand, a lot of contractors we know are out tens or hundreds of thousands.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
For posterity, do you mind listing these companies, baronjutter?

Calling it now: 2015 will be a bloodbath.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Baronjutter posted:

Yay like the 6th condo project in the last year has gone bankrupt or simply vanished or tried to gently caress us on billing. This never used to happen. Booming healthy construction industry! christ if it's not a company I recognise and we've done lots of work with in the past we should ask for half up front or something. I guess we're only out a couple thousand, a lot of contractors we know are out tens or hundreds of thousands.

Victoria right?

I was there recently - was checking out real estate ads and the pricing on condo units is really hilariously expensive. Complete divorce from local incomes.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Wouldn't it make sense to have reasonably priced rents for everyone instead of home price speculation?

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

I think we've got some sort of legal stuff going with some of them, and some have promised to pay once they've "sorted out" their finances so my boss probably doesn't want me bad-mouthing any of our clients or ex-clients, he's really paranoid that way.

Victoria apparently has a higher average income than Vancouver. Lot of rich retired people and government workers here. There's just nothing in the middle. It's either work at a restaurant or in tourism for minimum wage, or be some minister's aid for 100k+. The high income jobs are never ever locals either, it's people from all over Canada who worked their way up some career ladder to finally get a transfer to Victoria. All the condos are being bought by those people or retired people. Every 60ish rich person from Toronto aparently wants to buy in a brand new tower in Victoria to "get away from all the construction and skyscrapers in Toronto" and once their condo in Victoria is done they instantly join some neighbourhood group dedicated to blocking all other new construction, usually saying how much they spent to move here from Toronto to avoid such things and thus Victoria must never change because it's what they bought into.

Like I'm not at all joking, I've heard in city council public hearings over development people literally say poo poo like "We paid a premium on our condo and moving to Victoria to buy a certain lifestyle and now it's under attack by developers!" while living in a condo that just went up that year, that previously was protested by people just like them that had moved there a few years earlier. But yeah, people actually think the high price they paid for their Victoria condo entitles them to a city that never changes and a view that is protected forever, even if it's just phase 3 of the same development they bought into.

Also laughing so hard at my friend's ex who was really controlling over finances and thought him self a financial expert and would drop hints that she didn't have her finances together because she was "still" renting lost about 60k when he sold his condo after 4 years.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

etalian posted:

Wouldn't it make sense to have reasonably priced rents for everyone instead of home price speculation?

No because only losers rent.

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Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Cultural Imperial posted:

No because only losers rent.

This is such a ridiculously strong cultural meme or what ever. Not to give too many stupid Victoria anecdotes, but it's not just lovely realtors that push this line. I've heard many "poverty advocates" push this line as well. They want the government and city to do more to make ownership possible for the poor and needy. They'll come right out and saying "trapping" the poor in rental situations is keeping them in poverty because they can't build equity. And tons of people eat that poo poo up. "We need to build affordable houses and stratas so people of all income levels can have the pride of ownership and build equity rather than being trapped throwing all their money away on rent". They paint renting the same as payday loans or other horrible financial poo poo that keeps the poor poor. It has a lot of traction and I'll hear politicians and people passionate about "affordable housing" talk about it. Like subsidized rentals and such are just a stop-gap to get people off the streets, but ideally we'd be subsidizing condos for these people. I mean you're not a real Canadian if you rent, how can you have any pride or dignity if you're over 30 and renting??

I'd be absolutely terrified if this started to become actual policy. In some ways it has, there's all sorts of weird subsidies and tax breaks the city offers developers if they have X amount of "affordable" condos. So in a way the government is trying to directly subsidies ownership. But all it results in is a couple 400sqft condos that are 150k instead of 180k and some councilors pat them selves on the back for providing affordable housing.

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