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sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

Blade_of_tyshalle posted:

Which part of the country are they in? I'm not sure if Mike Holmes ventures out of the GTA too much.

Mike Holmes use to have the best contracting website till people started buying out the companies he recommended and running them into the ground.

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Lain Iwakura
Aug 5, 2004

The body exists only to verify one's own existence.

Taco Defender
I am going to just leave this right here.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
Are those actual hundreds, or short-form thousands?

Employee 2-4601
Aug 31, 2001

Pretty sure they're actuals for 3 months, as we didn't have nearly 10M immigrants that quarter.

a podcast for cats
Jun 22, 2005

Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."
Soiled Meat
I am not actually interested in Canadian real estate and furthest West (and closest to Canada) I've been is France. Yet, I keep checking this thread for general real estate bubble chat. Alright, here's my question:

- The parliament in my country is about to pass a change in bankruptcy law, which should make all future mortgage debt non-recourse. The banks are throwing a tantrum, stating that it will destroy house affordability and doom poor families to homelessness forever. What's the bear consensus of non-recourse vs recourse house debt. Which is worse and why?

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Tonton Macoute posted:

The parliament in my country is about to pass a change in bankruptcy law, which should make all future mortgage debt non-recourse. The banks are throwing a tantrum, stating that it will destroy house affordability and doom poor families to homelessness forever. What's the bear consensus of non-recourse vs recourse house debt. Which is worse and why?

Neither is intrinsically better or worse for bears, but a sudden shift from recourse to non-recourse could lead to a sharp reduction in credit availability (i.e. force banks to suddenly adopt more rigorous lending standards), which would tend to reduce the number of buyers who are able to proceed and thus pull prices down.

However, non-recourse is very bad if you're the kind of bear who desperately wants to see new homebuyers driven out of their homes and into destitution.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Tonton Macoute posted:

I am not actually interested in Canadian real estate and furthest West (and closest to Canada) I've been is France. Yet, I keep checking this thread for general real estate bubble chat. Alright, here's my question:

- The parliament in my country is about to pass a change in bankruptcy law, which should make all future mortgage debt non-recourse. The banks are throwing a tantrum, stating that it will destroy house affordability and doom poor families to homelessness forever. What's the bear consensus of non-recourse vs recourse house debt. Which is worse and why?

It's probably irrelevant. There were American states on either side of the recourse/non-recourse split which suffered very badly in the American housing collapse.

Having said that, if I were running a bank, I would greatly prefer to live in a recourse jurisdiction - for the hassle reduction alone, hence the tantrums.

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost

DailyDumSum posted:

I'm thinking of purchasing a condo in Toronto. Please point to resources where it would show me that it is a bad idea.

For reference, it's a 2 bed + 2 bath for 450K.
There is no simple, clear-cut answer to this. Who's the builder? Which part of Toronto is the condo in? How much are the maintenance fees (and what's covered under the fees)?

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

DailyDumSum posted:

I'm thinking of purchasing a condo in Toronto. Please point to resources where it would show me that it is a bad idea.

For reference, it's a 2 bed + 2 bath for 450K.

There's sort of an interesting implicit cultural assumption about the burden of proof on this topic by the way you've phrased this. "show me why this is a bad idea" instead of "I'm going to do this for these hopefully-justifiable reasons".

Just imagine someone making a similar statement in one of the various investing threads: "I'm thinking of buying a low-cost indexed US equity fund. Please point to resources where it would show me that it is a bad idea". It's basically unthinkable.

Anyway, not exactly a criticism - it's just very revealing how you put that.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

melon cat posted:

There is no simple, clear-cut answer to this. Who's the builder? Which part of Toronto is the condo in? How much are the maintenance fees (and what's covered under the fees)?

Also, what is your likely mortgage rate and how long is the fixed rate period? What would it cost to rent a property of an equivalent standard? How big will your downpayment be and what kind of return could you realistically get on it if you invested it elsewhere?

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you

LemonDrizzle posted:

However, non-recourse is very bad if you're the kind of bear who desperately wants to see new homebuyers driven out of their homes and into destitution.

I thought this was the only kind of bear???

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

LemonDrizzle posted:

Neither is intrinsically better or worse for bears, but a sudden shift from recourse to non-recourse could lead to a sharp reduction in credit availability (i.e. force banks to suddenly adopt more rigorous lending standards), which would tend to reduce the number of buyers who are able to proceed and thus pull prices down.

What a novel concept!

LemonDrizzle posted:

However, non-recourse is very bad if you're the kind of bear who desperately wants to see new homebuyers driven out of their homes and into destitution.

How would that work? Existing homebuyers would somehow be driven out of their homes?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

LemonDrizzle posted:

Neither is intrinsically better or worse for bears, but a sudden shift from recourse to non-recourse could lead to a sharp reduction in credit availability (i.e. force banks to suddenly adopt more rigorous lending standards), which would tend to reduce the number of buyers who are able to proceed and thus pull prices down.

Has this ever happened anywhere in the world?

LemonDrizzle posted:

However, non-recourse is very bad if you're the kind of bear who desperately wants to see new homebuyers driven out of their homes and into destitution.

*raises hand*

gently caress em

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Lexicon posted:

How would that work? Existing homebuyers would somehow be driven out of their homes?
If you have a recourse loan and become unable to keep up with your payments, you lose your house but the remaining debt stays with you so you'll either have to accept a lower quality of life while you pay it off or declare bankruptcy. Conversely, if you have a non-recourse loan and can't keep up with the mortgage, your outstanding debt disappears when you give the keys back to the lender and walk away. That makes it much easier to rebuild your finances. If you want new buyers who've overborrowed to be in the worst possible position after a crash, you want them on recourse loans.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Has this ever happened anywhere in the world?
Can't think of anything similar off the top of my head.

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

DailyDumSum posted:

I'm thinking of purchasing a condo in Toronto. Please point to resources where it would show me that it is a bad idea.

For reference, it's a 2 bed + 2 bath for 450K.

How much money do you make? What other debts do you have?

Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)
Can you afford mortgage payments if the rates are higher when you renew in 5 years?

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Baronjutter posted:

Yeah, rent, it owns. Depending the rent/buy ratio in your city even if you want to buy you're still better off renting for like 20+ years, like you come out ahead financially even if there isn't a crash.

On the other hand buying high is really good since it means you can only make more money in the future.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rticle20811140/

quote:

Jane and John seem to be sliding ever deeper into debt and don’t quite know what to do about it.

He is 39, she is 41. They have two children, four and three. Given John’s $165,000-a-year salary, they should be okay.

But living in one of Canada’s most expensive cities on one income – if only for a few years – can be challenging. They’ve had to refinance their house and take out a line of credit. They also have a car loan. They have little in the way of savings.

Fortunately, John has a partly indexed defined-benefit pension plan that will pay him about $86,000 a year in current dollars if he stays with his current employer until he retires.

In the meantime, Jane is casting about for solutions.

“Should we live in a less expensive house?” she asks in an e-mail. “Are we spending exorbitantly? It feels like we never have extra money.

“We still have an assortment of hand-me-down and university furniture, we don’t fly anywhere on trips, we can’t afford to do landscaping in the yard. I don’t really buy expensive clothes – I buy many things second-hand,” Jane writes.

“I do need to get a job, but will this solve the problems?”

We asked Michael Cherney, an independent financial planner in Toronto, to look at Jane and John’s situation.

What the expert says

Jane and John are just making ends meet, Mr. Cherney says. John’s take-home pay is entirely eaten up by monthly expenses. Some changes are in order.

The easiest solution is for Jane to go back to work, Mr. Cherney says. She is looking for a part-time job in marketing that would pay from $18,000 to $39,000 a year for a four-day week.

“This would be especially invaluable to the family given Jane’s low tax rate,” Mr. Cherney says. “This would bring in between $15,700 and $30,900 a year and would allow a range of savings options” – paying down the mortgage, saving for retirement, saving for the children’s education and taking advantage of tax-free savings accounts.

If Jane does not find work, they could consider selling their home and downsizing to a less expensive one, preferably with a basement apartment, the planner says.

They have about $215,000 of equity in the house, which could easily be whittled down to $150,000 after all the costs involved in moving to a new house are factored in, Mr. Cherney says.

“But if they could add a basement apartment to the mix, perhaps getting $1,000 a month in rent, that would be worth it,” he says.

Regardless, Jane and John “would benefit from reviewing their monthly expenses,” the planner notes. With so much of their income going to debt repayment, they are “particularly vulnerable to interest-rate increases.”

To lower their heating and electricity bills, they could “time-shift” laundry, dishwashing and other “electricity gobblers,” turn lights off, and put heating and air conditioning on a timer, he says.

They are paying $786 a month to lease a late-model car.

“They have expressed concern about car safety, though I would point out that there are many low-cost options that have five-star safety ratings,” Mr. Cherney says.

He suggests they get someone to take over their lease and buy a good used car that is still under warranty.

Gifts and vacations could also be pared. Instead, the family could enjoy “staycations” or lower-cost camping trips, he says. Grooming, too, could be reduced.

The payoff will be worthwhile, Mr. Cherney says.

“Assuming they can achieve some combination of the above, they will have no problem achieving their goal of retiring at John’s age 60 with an income of $70,000 a year after tax,” he says. “In fact, they should be able to achieve an indexed income of $94,000 in current dollars” when Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security benefits are included.

Jane and John are good candidates for income splitting, Mr. Cherney notes. John can transfer up to half of his pension income to Jane and benefit from her lower marginal tax rate. This should also allow him to avoid the OAS clawback, and allow Jane to claim the $2,000 pension income credit. They can also split their CPP benefits.

***

Client situation:

The people: John, 39, Jane, 41, and their two children.

The problem: How to get back on track financially to reverse their high debt and low savings.

The plan: Jane is looking for work. Once she finds a job, her income will help to pay down the mortgage and save for the future. Cut spending where possible and consider buying a used car instead of leasing.

The payoff: No more money worries.

Monthly net income: $8,800

Assets: Home $800,000; bank account $3,060; term deposits $550; RRSPs $11,215; RESP $6,390; present value of his pension plan $81,200. Total: $902,415

Monthly disbursements: Mortgages $2,855; utilities, insurance, maintenance $445; auto lease $785; other transportation $270; groceries $1,000; clothing $280; line of credit $395; student loan $80; credit cards $140; gifts, charitable $250; vacation, travel $335; children’s activities $230; grooming $200; other personal discretionary $205; doctors, dentists $250; life insurance $145; drugstore $20; telecom, TV, Internet $210; his pension plan contributions $700. Total: $8,795

Liabilities: Mortgage $372,865 at 2.79 per cent; mortgage $212,840 at 2.2 per cent; line of credit $73,850 at 4.5 per cent; credit cards $5,690; loan $14,150 at 7.65 per cent. Total: $679,395


:lol: gently caress you jane and john

Scum like this deserve to burn in the impending crash.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

I usually find your vindictiveness and desire to see idiots suffer a tad off-putting, but I'm a-ok with jane and john hitting living-under-a-bridge levels of poverty due to their amazing mix of entitlement and financial ignorance.

Or like just have to move into a 2br apartment in a not-great neighbourhood and live like a normal person for a few years while they re-build after a bankruptcy. Anyone who brings in 165k a year and can't live in comfort and stability really deserves no sympathy. I bet they've considered downsizing but just can't find a 4br house good enough because they just NEED 4 bedrooms. In their minds they are living at the absolute minimum levels possible. I mean do people expect them to not lease a high end new car, or their kids to share a bedroom??

They are paying about the same on their loving car lease as I am on a 2-year financing to actually own my car. But of course they need some top of the line lexus SUV because "SAFETY!".

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 02:06 on Sep 27, 2014

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

lmao

They are paying $786 a month to lease a late-model car.

HystericFactor
Aug 30, 2003
It's time for dim sum.
Clapping Larry
They also have two mortgages. But at least they're giving $250 per month of charitable donations!

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

quote:

“We still have an assortment of hand-me-down and university furniture, we don’t fly anywhere on trips, we can’t afford to do landscaping in the yard. I don’t really buy expensive clothes – I buy many things second-hand,”
:goonsay:

The state of mind of these scumbags needs to be emphasized.

At least you have pride of ownership.

flashman
Dec 16, 2003

Just wait until their kids get old enough to need cellphones, that 210 won't cover TV, Internet, and Telecom anymore. I guess they are the conservatives target audience with their campaign for cheaper cellphones.

What's going on with the two mortgages? Is that on the same house?

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

flashman posted:

What's going on with the two mortgages? Is that on the same house?

Yeah imagine the high home price means they needed two mortgages for one house.

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself
How the gently caress do these morons only have $3k in the bank? Are they eating fuckin caviar off strippers' asses for every meal of the day?

edit: oh right, even with a massive income they are still spending 45% on housing+transportation. And $1,000 a month on food? Are you loving kidding me?

Grand Theft Autobot fucked around with this message at 03:09 on Sep 27, 2014

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib
8 loving thousand 8 hundred dollars net income a month.

I remember when I was living an entire year off about that much.

Like holy poo poo give me 165k a year and I'd be a millionaire in short time just by not being loving retarded with my money.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

If I made 165k a year I could literally have a million in the bank after 6-7 years, maybe sooner if I was investing it all.

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

How the gently caress do these morons only have $3k in the bank? Are they eating fuckin caviar off strippers' asses for every meal of the day?

I used to manage clients with this type of income. On a daily basis, I nearly fainted when I saw what their paycheque amount was. But despite how much money they made, they always found a way to out-spend themselves. If they make $150K/year, they'll spend $300K. If they make $300K a year, they'll spend $600K. They also max the poo poo out of their HELOCs, and have multiple vehicle leases.

And in most cases, their savings/investment accounts had next to nothing. Until this day, I have no idea how they didn't have nervous breakdowns over their household finances. A lot of them were so far into the hole (despite having strong incomes) that nothing short of winning the lottery would pull them out of the red.

melon cat fucked around with this message at 04:01 on Sep 27, 2014

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
The wife's new job income will be used to fund the purchase of a investment condo. There is no other possibility with that couple.

e: However again, I salute them for over compensating for my lack of consumption and keeping our economy rolling. Excelsior!

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself

melon cat posted:

I used to manage clients with this type of income. On a daily basis, I nearly fainted when I saw what their paycheque amount was. But despite how much money they made, they always found a way to out-spend themselves. If they make $150K/year, they'll spend $300K. If they make $300K a year, they'll spend $600K. They also max the poo poo out of their HELOCs, and have multiple vehicle leases.

And in most cases, their savings/investment accounts had next to nothing.

How were they so bad at this? I can't even begin to understand how this works.

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost
.

melon cat fucked around with this message at 04:19 on Mar 16, 2019

Kalenn Istarion
Nov 2, 2012

Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

Baronjutter posted:

If I made 165k a year I could literally have a million in the bank after 6-7 years, maybe sooner if I was investing it all.

Nice thought but flat out not true

165k gets taxed at approx 33% on average so you'd be left with $110,000 per year max. Even if you make modest spending assumptions of say $3,000 a month for a very frugal family of 4, with investment earnings of 6% per year after tax you'd end up with about 800,000 saved. This disregards that it would be deflated money (2% a year makes it worth <700 something today) and that spending almost inevitably rises as income increases. Easy to make a case for not buying that new computer or whatever when doing so means a real loss of ability to spend on needs but a much harder argument to make when it's 'just disposable income'.

E: this is not me saying they're not dumb as gently caress and we shouldn't laugh at them, but it's not quite as simple as baronjutter's post might make it sound.

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Baronjutter posted:

If I made 165k a year I could literally have a million in the bank after 6-7 years, maybe sooner if I was investing it all.

There's this thing called taxes, you don't just divide by 6.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

blah_blah posted:

There's this thing called taxes, you don't just divide by 6.

I'd get rich flipping a house or two.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

How were they so bad at this? I can't even begin to understand how this works.

Lots of dumb rich people don't run off a basic household budget and do lots of really impulse buys.

Also credit payment creep can add up over time.

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Baronjutter posted:

I'd get rich flipping a house or two.

You don't need any salary to get rich house flipping!

Pixelboy
Sep 13, 2005

Now, I know what you're thinking...

triplexpac posted:

So my friends saw a house on Wednesday night, put in a bid last night and bought the house. I don't think they did a home inspection... hope it all works out for them!

That's usually a contingency on the offer.

You know that's a thing?

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Pixelboy posted:

That's usually a contingency on the offer.

You know that's a thing?

Offers having no subjects is pretty common in Vancouver.

Kalenn Istarion
Nov 2, 2012

Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

blah_blah posted:

Offers having no subjects is pretty common in Vancouverstupid.

Fixed

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ductonius
Apr 9, 2007
I heard there's a cream for that...

Accounting for compound interest and a very modest 5% return (historically, returns on capital have been around 9%) with 2% inflation, if you saved 800,000 of your income over 7 years, you'd get to about $877k in your seventh, and you would most certainly have over $1,000,000 in your eighth. In just under a decade, you could have $1.3 million in equity and four years after that have just shy of $2mil (assuming you saved as consistently as you had). All figures in today's dollars, adjusted for inflation.

So, no, it's not as simple as Baronjutter said, he was off by exactly one year.

Conclusion: These people are batshit insane, have their priorities completely backwards and need to get their heads screwed on straight.

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