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Mukaikubo posted:It would be really helpful if they'd release the Chart Of Doom with a log axis so we could visually see just how close the outbreak's staying to strictly exponential growth.  e:(this was done quickly and without any real effort from the wiki tables; no guarantee of accuracy)
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Sep 27, 2014 16:07
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Mukaikubo posted:It would be really helpful if they'd release the Chart Of Doom with a log axis so we could visually see just how close the outbreak's staying to strictly exponential growth. There's one maintained on wikipedia:   E: beaten If ebola was a commodity, I'd buy now
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Sep 27, 2014 16:13
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The worst case of 1.5 million total cases by January assumes no intervention, realistically I think the middle scenario is most likely.
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Sep 27, 2014 16:15
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etalian posted:The worst case of 1.5 million total cases by January assumes no intervention, realistically I think the middle scenario is most likely. If the current count of 6000 cases is actually doubling every 20 days, we will have 400k cases by the end of January, but if it is really 14 days then we will see 3 million cases by the end of January (or 1.5 billion with 7 day doubling)
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Sep 27, 2014 16:41
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Pillowpants posted:It's worth noting on the chart I keep posting (Because My Imaginary GF asked for it) that "New Listings" have shot up to over 100 per day in the last week after hovering around 60-70 for two weeks, in Sierra Leone. I tried to keep the same tally for Liberia, but they're not posting SitReps much anymore. They are very insightful graphs which allow one to tell of discrepencies in reporting. http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0HM0K920140927?irpc=932 More bad news from Liberia. Situations like this are indicative of EVD worsening in the region; members of government, despite what some may say, are still human. E: I've seen a doctor in Sierra Leone's emergency operations centre hint that the numbers reported are only for one district. Now that is an insightful, and scary, thought.
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Sep 27, 2014 18:33
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How likely/unlikely is this to basically become the next Black Death/Spanish Flu of the 21st century? Given the rate of infection and inevitable spread.
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Sep 27, 2014 18:35
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SkySteak posted:How likely/unlikely is this to basically become the next Black Death/Spanish Flu of the 21st century? Given the rate of infection and inevitable spread. I'm not medical professional, but I see the worldwide problem being an economic depression when this spreads to a country with mostly white or Asian people in it and everyone freaks out.
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Sep 27, 2014 18:47
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New WHO Roadmap is out: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/135029/1/roadmapupdate26sept14_eng.pdf?ua=1 Read the color coding at the last page, count how many green 'S's there are
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Sep 27, 2014 18:49
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hobbesmaster posted:Tenure basically means you have to go to the very top to be fired. I know this is a bit of a derail, but the spokesman quote I was referring to a tenured professor committing mass murder and them not doing anything?
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Sep 27, 2014 19:07
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mitztronic posted:I know this is a bit of a derail, but the spokesman quote I was referring to a tenured professor committing mass murder and them not doing anything? Its a political issue, what with the attention paid to Salaita. They want to fire him, they would normally fire him; however, due to the Salaita issue, they can't take the risk of firing him at this time.
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Sep 27, 2014 19:24
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SkySteak posted:How likely/unlikely is this to basically become the next Black Death/Spanish Flu of the 21st century? Given the rate of infection and inevitable spread. Likelihood of global epidemic: pretty much zero. Likelihood of being the Black Death for West Africa? Higher than anyone would like. Especially Africans.
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Sep 27, 2014 19:31
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My Imaginary GF posted:Its a political issue, what with the attention paid to Salaita. They want to fire him, they would normally fire him; however, due to the Salaita issue, they can't take the risk of firing him at this time. It's crazy- I have colleagues defending this guy's "academic freedom" on facebook. He fabricated sources in the column, and includes his status and university affiliation in the byline.
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Sep 27, 2014 19:41
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My Imaginary GF posted:New WHO Roadmap is out: It's weird how many of them are in regions that are supposedly not even dealing with the disease at the moment. That might be related to the fact that other deadly infectious diseases are largely going untreated now, and diagnosis and autopsy are unavailable for the sick and recently deceased. The section on health care workers really stood out to me. So far, 184 HCWs have died in Liberia; apparently, before this happened, there were only about 1300 HCWs in the country (51 doctors; 978 nurses and midwives; 269 pharmacists, according to http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29324595). It's quite possible that not all those dead were Liberian (most, surely, were) but if nothing else it means Liberian healthcare has been decimated. It also lends credence to problems with reporting. From the numbers - just over 1 doctor per 100,000 population - most Liberians probably only knew about doctors from rumors. Now, with reports of nurses on strike, it seems plausible that in Liberia the healthcare infrastructure has degraded from woefully inadequate to practically nonexistent.
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Sep 27, 2014 21:09
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ma i married a tuna posted:It's weird how many of them are in regions that are supposedly not even dealing with the disease at the moment. That might be related to the fact that other deadly infectious diseases are largely going untreated now, and diagnosis and autopsy are unavailable for the sick and recently deceased. The plan for 2015 is to train 500 HCWs/month in Liberia. Capacity to do so is under construction and won't be fully and efficiently operational until January.
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Sep 27, 2014 21:16
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This explains why the cases appear to be slowing down in Guinea http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/09/guinea-residents-refusing-ebola-treatment-201492751955453636.html quote:Residents of the Guinean capital Conakry, hit hard by Ebola, say they are afraid to seek treatment at hospitals for fear of being poisoned by doctors, as the death toll across West Africa passed the 3,000 mark.
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Sep 27, 2014 21:39
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Sad as it is, that may actually help in the long run: In Liberia people have been ferrying the sick by taxi all over Monrovia trying to find beds that did not exist in hospitals that were overburdened. People remaining home are essentially in self-imposed quarantine. Their chances of survival are bad, but their chances of propagating the virus further are low as well. It may be the best hope for Guinea to finally end the outbreak locally, because they need to face the fact that timely international help is not in the cards.
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Sep 27, 2014 21:53
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It really feels like we're looking at whole governments eventually collapsing in West Africa before enough help can be trained.
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Sep 27, 2014 22:43
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Mukaikubo posted:It would be really helpful if they'd release the Chart Of Doom with a log axis so we could visually see just how close the outbreak's staying to strictly exponential growth. They do   E: oops didnt see this page
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Sep 27, 2014 22:45
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:They do Do you have the one projected out to January on hand? It continues with something like, 10,000; 20,000; 50,000; 100,000; 200,000; 500,000; 1,000,000; 2,000,000
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Sep 27, 2014 22:47
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Sep 27, 2014 22:49
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Now, show me a graph with 17% weekly growth. http://www.usaid.gov/ebola/fy14/fs07 E: Back-of-hand calculation: 44,695,966 cases. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Sep 27, 2014 |
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Sep 27, 2014 22:54
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It's following the lines 
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Sep 27, 2014 22:57
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Ebola Roulette posted:This explains why the cases appear to be slowing down in Guinea quote:Many Guineans say local and foreign healthcare workers are part of a conspiracy which either deliberately introduced the outbreak, or invented it as a means of luring Africans to clinics to harvest their blood and organs. It would be interesting to know what they think said "conspiracy" is going to do with blood and organs saturated with Ebola, especially seeing as many of the infected probably weren't in peak condition before they contracted the virus. Did conspiracy theories like these exist before the current outbreak in connection with more mundane ailments (eg: "If you go to the hospital for malaria they will steal your organs!")? Kopijeger fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Sep 27, 2014 |
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Sep 27, 2014 22:59
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Kopijeger posted:It would be interesting to know what they think said "conspiracy" is going to do with blood and organs saturated with Ebola, especially seeing as many of the infected probably wasn't in peak condition before they contracted the virus. Did conspiracy theories like these exist before the current outbreak in connection with more mundane ailments (eg: "If you go to the hospital for malaria they will steal your organs!")? Yes. There have been cases of organized organ harvesting and smuggling operations in the region. Its an issue, and not an irrational fear.
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Sep 27, 2014 23:01
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mitztronic posted:I know this is a bit of a derail, but the spokesman quote I was referring to a tenured professor committing mass murder and them not doing anything? If the provost, president and board of trustees or whatever equivalent wants him out he's out. Tenure is about making it hard to fire someone, not impossible. This would be a good case, but a bunch of people at the top of the university would have to agree.
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Sep 27, 2014 23:29
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New report up, on needs and requirements for the outbreak: https://docs.unocha.org/sites/dms/CAP/Ebola_outbreak_Sep_2014.pdf Keynote so far: 2 suspected cases Senegal, 1 suspected case Nigeria Locations with new cases: Rivers County, Nigeria E: A firm number on PPE requirements: 7 sets per patient per day. "WHO estimates up to seven flights per month for foreign medical evacuation will be needed" -- How many has September had? My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Sep 28, 2014 |
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Sep 27, 2014 23:48
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hobbesmaster posted:If the provost, president and board of trustees or whatever equivalent wants him out he's out. Tenure is about making it hard to fire someone, not impossible. This would be a good case, but a bunch of people at the top of the university would have to agree. Yeah, but another university is taking a lot of poo poo for firing/unhiring a dude for one or two Tweets about I/P, so I think these guys are hoping it blows over and they don't get more pushback.
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Sep 27, 2014 23:57
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My Imaginary GF posted:A firm number on PPE requirements: 7 sets per patient per day. Would hiring survivors as medical assistants help reduce their amount of protective equipment needed? Or does doing so cause people outside quarantine to get infected more easily?
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Sep 28, 2014 00:11
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tentative8e8op posted:Would hiring survivors as medical assistants help reduce their amount of protective equipment needed? Or does doing so cause non-helpers to get infected more easily? WHO staff requirements based on 20,000 caseload: 656. Estimated tons of equipment per month for 20,000 caseload: 3,242 Monthly airtravel from 3 infected countries to Europe: 81,000 This is why I say WHO's response has been inept: it is far too conservative for the reality on the ground. See also the Lancet editorial I linked a few posts back. E: Oh hey, CDC is developing a 'National Ebola Contingency Plan' My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Sep 28, 2014 |
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Sep 28, 2014 00:15
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My Imaginary GF posted:New report up, on needs and requirements for the outbreak: Sounds like one of the doctor's contacts (other than his wife) finally became symptomatic. So that number will probably grow then.
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Sep 28, 2014 00:17
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Cuba says it will send nearly 300 more doctors and nurses to West Africa to help fight the Ebola epidemic. The Cubans will work in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia, Regla Angulo, head of the Cuban medical relief agency, said in a statement on Friday. The announcement means that up to 461 Cuban medical personnel would have been sent to help address the epidemic spreading across West Africa. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/09/cuba-sends-300-more-doctors-fight-ebola-201492692422678186.html
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Sep 28, 2014 00:42
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HerStuddMuffin posted:Sad as it is, that may actually help in the long run: In Liberia people have been ferrying the sick by taxi all over Monrovia trying to find beds that did not exist in hospitals that were overburdened. People remaining home are essentially in self-imposed quarantine. Their chances of survival are bad, but their chances of propagating the virus further are low as well. It may be the best hope for Guinea to finally end the outbreak locally, because they need to face the fact that timely international help is not in the cards. Well, yeah, the person themselves is in quarantine, but they're still transmitting disease to people who aren't in quarantine. Random family members are not trained or equipped to handle highly infectious diseases. And the people who think it's just doctors trying to poison them seem especially unlikely to be properly wary of possible transmission and early symptoms and so on. On the last page a chart gave the reproduction number as 0.12 for proper treatment in hospital, 0.18 for isolated treatment at home, or 1.8 for non-isolated treatment at home. So potentially those people could be infecting roughly 10-15x as many people as if they were properly treated. For the record 1.8 is about what a pandemic strain of flu would have. Maybe even a bit higher. Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Sep 28, 2014 |
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Sep 28, 2014 01:31
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...b92f_story.html MONROVIA, Liberia — While the terrifying spread of Ebola has captured the world’s attention, it also has produced a lesser-known crisis: the near-collapse of the already fragile health-care system here, a development that may be as dangerous — for now — as the virus for the average Liberian. Western experts said that people here are dying of preventable or treatable conditions such as malaria, diarrhea, pneumonia and the effects of high blood pressure and diabetes, such as strokes. Where services do exist, Ebola has complicated the effort to provide them by stoking fear among health-care workers, who sometimes turn away sick people or women in labor if they can’t determine whether the patient is infected. And some people, health-care workers said, will not seek care, fearful that they will become infected with Ebola at a clinic or hospital.
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Sep 28, 2014 01:38
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:Cuba says it will send nearly 300 more doctors and nurses to West Africa to help fight the Ebola epidemic. Aren't most Cuban doctors basically trained to the level of a US EMT-P? I could be easily wrong about this, but I've heard that before.
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Sep 28, 2014 03:28
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suboptimal posted:Aren't most Cuban doctors basically trained to the level of a US EMT-P? I could be easily wrong about this, but I've heard that before. No, they're quite well trained. Their access to medicine and equipment on the other hand, that'll often be closer to what you'd have available to the paramedics in a standard ambulance than what a doc might have access to at a full hospital.
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Sep 28, 2014 03:41
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suboptimal posted:Aren't most Cuban doctors basically trained to the level of a US EMT-P? I could be easily wrong about this, but I've heard that before. Cuban doctors are world-renowned. The equipment will be an issue, as mentioned.
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Sep 28, 2014 03:47
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My Imaginary GF posted:WHO staff requirements based on 20,000 caseload: 656. Last I saw in the NY Times only 1,600 are pledged, and they probably won't all be in place until November. 
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Sep 28, 2014 06:59
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Likelihood of global epidemic: pretty much zero. Look on the bright side: it probably won't be as bad as contact-era smallpox in the Americas 
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Sep 28, 2014 07:27
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So uh, look at the Press Release on this update: http://health.gov.sl/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Ebola-Update-September-19-2014.pdf Oops. Thats a bit of a problem.
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Sep 28, 2014 07:37
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My Imaginary GF posted:So uh, look at the Press Release on this update: The confirmed death's have dropped below five hundred is the first thing I noticed  , but yeah, that press release is a doozy!  quote:The Incident Management Committee of the Emergency Operations Centre(EOC)have received information that some volunteers who were trained for the three days stay at home “Ose to Ose Ebola Tok” were replaced by family members and friends of the District Health Management Team (DHMT)staff in the Western Area.
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Sep 28, 2014 08:04
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