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Snipee posted:So I really want to donate to support the pro-democracy movements, but I'm an American, and I don't want to make the conspiracy theorists' jobs easier by blatantly sponsoring unrest. What should I do if I care about Hong Kong? Hold/join a solidarity rally. There's really not much you can do that would have tangible material benefits.
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Oct 5, 2014 06:29
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Grapplejack posted:Don't forget about the abundance of rare earth materials that are in China. China can easily tell the world to gently caress off and start hoarding their poo poo. Even worst case scenario with that it would just spur the use of inferior goods that used other materials, turn on the economic viability of mining rare earths from established stockpiles or encourage the technological development of alternative materials that don't use rare earths. None of these would end the world.
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Oct 5, 2014 06:30
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Grapplejack posted:Don't forget about the abundance of rare earth materials that are in China. China can easily tell the world to gently caress off and start hoarding their poo poo.
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Oct 5, 2014 06:41
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wrap it up hongkongailures, look what your disorder has wroughtquote:Yesterday, a tragedy happened in a family in Tseung Kwan O. A 100lb cabinet, which was installed to the ceiling, collapsed as the eight screws that stabilized it became loose. Because of Occupy Central. the maid didn’t need to bring her master to school and was sleeping at that time. She was crushed to become unconscious. She was pronounced dead at hospital. The young master who sleeps at the same room suffers no injuries. The family is extremely sad because of the death.
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Oct 5, 2014 07:50
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Gail Wynand posted:wrap it up hongkongailures, look what your disorder has wrought Beijing: Occupy Central 'a few loose screws' Clearly, it is time to tighten those screws. Because Occupy Central.
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Oct 5, 2014 07:53
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Clearly Beijing will put the screws on Occupy in response to this.
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Oct 5, 2014 07:56
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8 screws, secured to drywall either with inappropriate anchors or no anchors. The family is upset because they'll have a hard time finding a new maid who is willing to sleep over the blood stains from the old one.
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Oct 5, 2014 08:45
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Beijing: tightening the screws on Hong Kong maids without a stud since 1997 You don't need a stud for a tight screw to loosen on your maid in Hong Kong Eh, there's something there. Hopefully someone else can think of it better
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Oct 5, 2014 08:54
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Gail Wynand posted:wrap it up hongkongailures, look what your disorder has wrought
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Oct 5, 2014 09:05
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Ardennes posted:Also, I suspect that manufacturing could be duplicated more quickly than you would assume, I really haven't heard that China really has an IP or technological advantage. Facilities don't pop out of the air but ultimately there is the training out there for other electronics manufacturing and the technological ability to do so out of China. It would probably take years. There's a lot of expertise in Chinese electronics manufacturing, and more importantly, infrastructure and logistics. My company was basically given a free electronics factory in northeastern China, with much lower labor and facilities costs, and it's still significantly more expensive than contracting with existing electronics factories in the Pearl River Delta. Everything electronic has at least a component manufactured in southern China. It's the global center of electronics manufacturing, and at this point that isn't because of the labor costs. It would be a huge thing to move that all somewhere else.
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Oct 5, 2014 10:53
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Why are we discussing the consequences of economic sanctions on China? China could march in tomorrow with the PLA and brutally put down the protests and the rest of the world would whine but the United States would never, ever put serious economic sanctions. Also the West is not going to geopolitically isolate China right after it did so with Russia. The only thing that would do any of this would be China straight up attacking their neighbors over those stupid islands. After 89 there was an arms embargo, but no serious economic sanctions, and China is drastically more important to the American economy now. Sheng-Ji Yang fucked around with this message at 12:19 on Oct 5, 2014 |
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Oct 5, 2014 12:16
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:Why are we discussing the consequences of economic sanctions on China? China could march in tomorrow with the PLA and brutally put down the protests and the rest of the world would whine but the United States would never, ever put serious economic sanctions. Also the West is not going to geopolitically isolate China right after it did so with Russia. The only thing that would do any of this would be China straight up attacking their neighbors over those stupid islands. It is more about theoretically if they could, whether they would. We know they won't, but the question is if the US is hopelessly held hostage by China's electronics manufacturing industry. China produces a massive amount of the electronics, the question is if it could ever be reproduced elsewhere. quote:It would probably take years. There's a lot of expertise in Chinese electronics manufacturing, and more importantly, infrastructure and logistics. My company was basically given a free electronics factory in northeastern China, with much lower labor and facilities costs, and it's still significantly more expensive than contracting with existing electronics factories in the Pearl River Delta. Everything electronic has at least a component manufactured in southern China. It's the global center of electronics manufacturing, and at this point that isn't because of the labor costs. It would be a huge thing to move that all somewhere else. You could say the same thing ultimately about Europe's connection to the Russian gas industry, but unquestionably it makes more sense to do it even if it takes years and in that time, Russia can't cut off the gas even if wanted to. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Oct 5, 2014 |
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Oct 5, 2014 12:51
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A few months back, there was an article in the NYT that lamented the loss of institutional knowledge of manufacturing electronics in the US. They can't move their production without problems, as they don't have the structures and people to set up back in the US without putting some effort in figuring out how to make everything play together smoothly. Bottomline is, that it's not impossible, but shareholders would whine. THINK OF THE ECONOMY!?! The thing about Europe and Russian gas is a bit more complicated, as e.g. eastern european countries are generally more dependent on it. So if Russia decreases their deliveries, they feel it first. A few years back, Russia playing with the gas and the Ukraine was felt pretty badly in e.g. day to day life in Slowakia, but not at all in Austria or Germany. People would be literally sitting in the cold. Gas is convenient atm, because it doesn't require great investments in infrastructure, but eastern european countries generally have lots of potential for building up and capitalizing on hydropower and alternative energy like Austria. In fact, Austria's banks and energy sector have it's fingers up deep in these countries. With the latest threats of Russia, you can safely assume that they'll be pulling out of gas gradually over the next decades. At least that's what was said in the media, atm, nobody will poo poo where he eats.
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Oct 5, 2014 16:44
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Just outside Tsuen Wan MTR is full of blue ribbons tied to railings and even some posters with QR codes linking to 4 youtube videos but it's all in Chinese so I don't know what it says. The posters have big pictures of blue ribbons on though. So in summary I support Occupy because at least some of it is in English,,,
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Oct 5, 2014 17:01
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Ardennes posted:It is more about theoretically if they could, whether they would. We know they won't, but the question is if the US is hopelessly held hostage by China's electronics manufacturing industry. Economy sanction only work for smaller country up to the size of Iran. Anything bigger such as Russia it doesn't really work. Not to mention China's economy is at least 3 times larger. Let's say there is a sanction on China's goods, you are basically looking at 30% higher cost on all Walmart goods and $100 more expensive for new smartphones (just randomly throw some numbers out there). And you are basically asking the voters to put up with higher living cost to punish another country. And the beauty is Beijing and Kremlin don't have to ask their citizens if they want to pay more for their "reverse economy sanctions". They also have much more control over the media than the West do. So, if its down to an economic chicken's game between the US citizens who are free to change their minds and the citizens of China who can't change their mind because their only option is "mass street event", who do you think will buckle first. Also, sanction doesn't work for very well Iran as it is. Iranian people are very tribal, so they are basically laying low right now and use their extended family networks to help out each other. The sanction on Iran work only if Russia and China are honoring the deal. If the Nuclear talk collapse pass dead line and Russsia/China stop honoring their ends of the sanction Obama will have a huge egg on his foreign policy legacy. Iran is also an incredible important pivot country. Ideally Iran want to stay neutral to the triangular power struggle between US/China/Russia but if Obama push Iran to the eastern side its a huge lost to the US's influence in ME. Let's face it, Israel has unannounced nuclear bomb (just like Japan), it's matter of time before Iran get their unannounced bomb with or without US's permission. quote:You could say the same thing ultimately about Europe's connection to the Russian gas industry, but unquestionably it makes more sense to do it even if it takes years and in that time, Russia can't cut off the gas even if wanted to. The EU's attitude toward sanction is an perfect example of the West won't sacrifice their wallet to punish Russia. The bottom line is EU won't sanction Russia oil. If they are talking about stop sourcing Russia gas a few years down the road they are kidding themselves. A few years down the road Russia can build new pipeline to China and India.
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Oct 5, 2014 17:22
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Ardennes posted:It is more about theoretically if they could, whether they would. We know they won't, but the question is if the US is hopelessly held hostage by China's electronics manufacturing industry. I don't know much about the gas industry. Does Russia have a bunch of gas industry stuff that we don't really know how to easily, immediately reproduce elsewhere if we had to, or is it more about geography? If we suddenly had to stop sourcing electronics from China, we probably wouldn't actually know how to resume production anywhere else. Once you managed to organize a move of all that industry, there'd be a several year period of growing pains where stuff's going wrong and yields are low, development cycles are long. whatever7 posted:Let's say there is a sanction on China's goods, you are basically looking at 30% higher cost on all Walmart goods and $100 more expensive for new smartphones (just randomly throw some numbers out there). You're probably actually talking about severe shortages of all smartphones (and most other electronic devices) for at least a year.
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Oct 5, 2014 17:38
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Any progress made in Hong Kong today?
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Oct 5, 2014 17:53
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simplefish posted:Just outside Tsuen Wan MTR is full of blue ribbons tied to railings and even some posters with QR codes linking to 4 youtube videos but it's all in Chinese so I don't know what it says. The posters have big pictures of blue ribbons on though. So far on international coverage the anti-Occupy movement has been Triads, Mainlanders, and mental defectives, asking for Cantonese appears difficult enough as much of the TV coverage shows conversation in Mandarin. I would not be expecting too much support for the "pro-HK, pro-police, (pro-Beijing)" movements if you cannot even communicate in Cantonese (or English). I feel a bit sad for the two individuals in this video piece: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29469617
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Oct 5, 2014 18:07
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Grouchio posted:Any progress made in Hong Kong today? We learned that China is omniscient, omnipotent, unstoppable and controls the entire world's trade in everything. I assume the only reason they haven't killed everyone in Hong Kong, retaken Taiwan and conquered the Diaoyus is resistance from the equally powerful International Jewish Conspiracy.
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Oct 5, 2014 18:31
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You mean the US? Where do I put my monies to support you guys, so that you can hand out mountain dew?
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Oct 5, 2014 18:36
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JaucheCharly posted:You mean the US?  Goldman.
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Oct 5, 2014 18:56
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JaucheCharly posted:Where do I put my monies to support you guys, so that you can hand out mountain dew? Don't give caberham (or anyone else) money. Really. There is no material support that will help this movement succeed. There's honestly almost nothing you can do. The closest to helping is to organize and promote a solidarity rally to help morale among the protesters because that's what they need. They need more bodies on the streets and that means they need high morale both on and off the street.
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Oct 5, 2014 19:02
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You could start by breaking free from the capitalist system that sponsors the Chinese state and consuming only goods you produce.
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Oct 5, 2014 19:28
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Hot air and stench aren't selling well lately. Seriously, if you talk to people for solidarity with the folks of HK here, you'd probably get an anwer like "I've already ate at a chinese restaurant this week."
Power Khan fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Oct 5, 2014 |
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Oct 5, 2014 19:33
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Is this the thread to ask for PayPal donations to buy Cheetos and Mountain Dew for um...."HK protestors"?
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Oct 5, 2014 19:43
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JaucheCharly posted:Where do I put my monies to support you guys, so that you can hand out mountain dew? Trying to sabotage the morale of the protestors, eh?? I'm on to you!!
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Oct 5, 2014 20:19
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fits my needs posted:Is this the thread to ask for PayPal donations to buy Cheetos and Mountain Dew for um...."HK protestors"? Unless you need skinny jeans you're poo poo out of luck.
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Oct 5, 2014 20:52
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whatever7 posted:Economy sanction only work for smaller country up to the size of Iran. Anything bigger such as Russia it doesn't really work. Not to mention China's economy is at least 3 times larger. The issue though is US can shift its trade relation outside the context of upfront sanctions. It doesn't have to cut off Chinese banks or seize Chinese shipping, it can just make trade with China marginally more expensive to do. China may complain but they still need to US as a customer, but even marginal increase in costs will be felt because their margins are so low to begin with. It wouldn't have anything to do with banning the goods outright but shifting our trade priorities elsewhere. I think any change in the US-Chinese trade relationship has been purposely built up as a apocalyptic scenario that just isn't the case, the US has agency here but it is just not utilizing it. To be honest, also if over the course of 5 years lets say manufacturing goes from China to Vietnam, I don't most consumers will see any real cost. In that sense, I think US has far more ability to act than Europe. There is only so much gas in the world, and while new infrastructure can be built to increase supply from other regions, it absolutely certainly will always have a higher cost no manner what they do and Europe isn't can only supply so much gas to itself. Similarly, Iran has oil production that can't really be duplicated in the same manner as manufacturing. quote:I don't know much about the gas industry. Does Russia have a bunch of gas industry stuff that we don't really know how to easily, immediately reproduce elsewhere if we had to, or is it more about geography? If we suddenly had to stop sourcing electronics from China, we probably wouldn't actually know how to resume production anywhere else. Once you managed to organize a move of all that industry, there'd be a several year period of growing pains where stuff's going wrong and yields are low, development cycles are long. The issue isn't technology, it is infrastructure and geography. Russia is a big country with a lot of gas with pipelines going to Europe and European will have to may more to get it from anywhere else since there is a limited supply in Europe. I actually really doubt the ability to produce electronics outside of China is "lost to time" especially since plenty of other countries actually do. China has obviously the infrastructure and muscle to it very cheaply but that is an ability that can be replicated elsewhere with investment and that can be create with economic incentives like shifting our trade policy. Also, I don't know why "yields" would necessarily be an issue since really complex microprocessors are often produced outside of China. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Oct 5, 2014 |
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Oct 5, 2014 21:08
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Ardennes posted:The issue though is US can shift its trade relation outside the context of upfront sanctions. It doesn't have to cut off Chinese banks or seize Chinese shipping, it can just make trade with China marginally more expensive to do. China may complain but they still need to US as a customer, but even marginal increase in costs will be felt because their margins are so low to begin with. I'd just like to point out that the EU is actually doing quite a lot of research on alternative energies for the future. As well as collectivization of energy usage and stuff like that. I've had professors and an employer that have worked on various projects such as these directly under the EU, so they are taking their energy research at least somewhat seriously. This could mean that the EU will be more energy independent in the future, or at least be able to produce more of their energy themselves. Shame about the popular view on nuclear power in a lot of countries here, though. E: I just noticed this is the China thread, not the Eastern Europe thread. I'm sorry.
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Oct 5, 2014 21:16
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Ardennes posted:The issue though is US can shift its trade relation outside the context of upfront sanctions. It doesn't have to cut off Chinese banks or seize Chinese shipping, it can just make trade with China marginally more expensive to do. China may complain but they still need to US as a customer, but even marginal increase in costs will be felt because their margins are so low to begin with. This goes back to the argument of why do you think imposing economic tariff is even a meaningful tool to encourage democratic change. It didn't work before, that was why Clinton gave China the permanent most favored nation status. I don't know if it has ever worked on any other country. It certainly has not worked on Iran. It *probably* has worked on some Latin American countries. This argument about economic and democracy has gone on a long time. Basically Americans just want to have a sense of comfort to know they can use the economic stick to control when the world is going if they want to.
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Oct 5, 2014 21:37
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We only sanction people if they are invading other countries anyhow. If China started a war over the South East Asian sea we'd probably see the US impose sanctions then. Of course that'd be very difficult but if Vietnam is getting invaded or Japanese ships are blowing up the economic situation is already hosed.
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Oct 5, 2014 21:46
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whatever7 posted:This goes back to the argument of why do you think imposing economic tariff is even a meaningful tool to encourage democratic change. It didn't work before, that was why Clinton gave China the permanent most favored nation status. I don't know if it has ever worked on any other country. It certainly has not worked on Iran. It *probably* has worked on some Latin American countries. We don't have to necessarily invest ourselves in a country like China though, even if you move your trade to another authoritarian country, it doesn't have to be one that is military expansionist and targeting your own allies. Shifting trade probably won't bring democracy to China, to be honest I don't think any outside actor has that ability, but US' trade relationship with China is not a healthy one. If anything it is in the best interests of the US to detach itself, and maybe some of that trade could at least flow somewhere else. As for "controlling the world" if anything US trade as inadvertently built up China against its own state interests in favor of multi-national business interests. The reason we stick with them because it is better for reliable profitability of those interests, but those interests really aren't the same as the public. quote:I'd just like to point out that the EU is actually doing quite a lot of research on alternative energies for the future. As well as collectivization of energy usage and stuff like that. I've had professors and an employer that have worked on various projects such as these directly under the EU, so they are taking their energy research at least somewhat seriously. This could mean that the EU will be more energy independent in the future, or at least be able to produce more of their energy themselves. They are but the thing is natural gas is not only used for more than electrical generation, but is less carbon intensive than coal. So as the EU moves from nuclear and tries to fight climate change, natural gas is right there. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Oct 5, 2014 |
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Oct 5, 2014 21:54
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Trade sanctions against an economy the size of China's would not work. That would be like imposing trade sanctions on the US. Nice try but ultimately it's not going to work because the US/China is such a huge piece of the world economy. Trade sanctions on smaller countries led by large economies are the thing that works.
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Oct 5, 2014 22:10
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Berke Negri posted:We only sanction people if they are invading other countries anyhow. If China started a war over the South East Asian sea we'd probably see the US impose sanctions then. Of course that'd be very difficult but if Vietnam is getting invaded or Japanese ships are blowing up the economic situation is already hosed.
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Oct 5, 2014 22:16
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Vladimir Putin posted:Trade sanctions against an economy the size of China's would not work. That would be like imposing trade sanctions on the US. Nice try but ultimately it's not going to work because the US/China is such a huge piece of the world economy. Trade sanctions on smaller countries led by large economies are the thing that works. Large countries shift their trade relations all the time, it just isn't called "sanctions."
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Oct 5, 2014 22:32
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Ardennes posted:Large countries shift their trade relations all the time, it just isn't called "sanctions." Partly this. We do so much business with China out of convenience, nothing more. We don't need to do business if it becomes inconvenient.
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Oct 5, 2014 22:36
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Ardennes posted:The issue though is US can shift its trade relation outside the context of upfront sanctions. It doesn't have to cut off Chinese banks or seize Chinese shipping, it can just make trade with China marginally more expensive to do. China may complain but they still need to US as a customer, but even marginal increase in costs will be felt because their margins are so low to begin with. Of course it isn't lost to time. But CPUs aren't the only thing with "yields". We changed manufacture of one product to another factory in south China and experienced 50% yields on a plastic cosmetic part, because the process to produce that part was fairly complicated. If you start moving everything to another country entirely, you'd expect to start seeing issues like this, but worse, and for tons of components in tons of products. It would take quite a while to work all these things out. That's what I'm talking about. But anyway, I thought you were talking about doing this suddenly in the event of a war or something. Not many CEOs are going to go through this relocation process, because it currently doesn't really make financial sense. And what real benefit is there for the US as a whole to uproot everything and move it to... Vietnam?
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Oct 6, 2014 00:39
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The whole textile industry has already made the move from Guangdong to Vietnam. I think they went from something like 100 billion per year before the financial crisis to about 2 billion per year now. It's caused a huge crime increase in Guangdong actually as unemployed textile worker men funneled into cities as unemployed people and started stealing to make a living. Obviously the more complex the industry the harder it is to move at will, and part of the reason people like China is specifically the lack of worker problems. Steve Jobs? said something along the lines of, he wouldn't produce iPhones in America because when he needs to replace the screen on a phone the day before shipping with a new material he can call China and they wake up the workers who live in the factories and they'll do it right there and you just can't do that in America. So take that as you will, especially in relation to the people who want to bring manufacturing back to the USA, they might not like what's required to compete!
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Oct 6, 2014 04:21
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whoops, wrong thread
icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Oct 6, 2014 |
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Oct 6, 2014 04:26
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Fall Sick and Die posted:The whole textile industry has already made the move from Guangdong to Vietnam. I think they went from something like 100 billion per year before the financial crisis to about 2 billion per year now. It's caused a huge crime increase in Guangdong actually as unemployed textile worker men funneled into cities as unemployed people and started stealing to make a living. Obviously the more complex the industry the harder it is to move at will, and part of the reason people like China is specifically the lack of worker problems. Steve Jobs? said something along the lines of, he wouldn't produce iPhones in America because when he needs to replace the screen on a phone the day before shipping with a new material he can call China and they wake up the workers who live in the factories and they'll do it right there and you just can't do that in America. So take that as you will, especially in relation to the people who want to bring manufacturing back to the USA, they might not like what's required to compete! That's a very good point, and also reminds me of something I've been thinking about for some time. Is there any chance that the improving living conditions and increasing wealth of the Chinese people is eventually going to lead to demands for better working conditions and more political freedom?
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Oct 6, 2014 04:28
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