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Forgall
Oct 16, 2012

by Azathoth
Apparently they are fast-tracking the law which will prohibit foreign companies from storing personal data of russians from 2016 to 2015. Not really sure what consequences it will have.

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OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Looks like there may have been a terrorist attack (bombing) at a pub liked by servicemen in Kharkiv.
Some heavily wounded, with local bloggers suggesting they were civilian.
(Though some reports claim gas explosion.)

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Interesting that Daniel Baer, U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE, Tweeted the Bellingcat report, and Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, retweeted several links relating to it.

Mightypeon
Oct 10, 2013

Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

Anosmoman posted:

The hegemonic USA presiding over the most peaceful period in human history. Oh the hegemony! But sure let's hope for a multi-polar world where states can systematically dismantle smaller, weaker states at will - it's worked so well the last 10.000 years so why gently caress with it now.

Most peaceful period in human history? Are you serious?
Frankly, assuming you are American, you have now been continously at war for roughly 14 years. Is this the most peacefull period for you?

Nintendo Kid
Aug 4, 2011

by Smythe

Mightypeon posted:

Most peaceful period in human history? Are you serious?

Name one more peaceful.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
Nice going, Brown Moses. I for one was surprised, and impressed, by just how conservative the report was with its claims.

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

Mightypeon posted:

Most peaceful period in human history? Are you serious?
Frankly, assuming you are American, you have now been continously at war for roughly 14 years. Is this the most peacefull period for you?

Compared to Germany, the US is pretty bad at starting wars and foreign conquest; if that's what you mean.

Mightypeon
Oct 10, 2013

Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

waitwhatno posted:

This is some of the most retarded poo poo I have ever read in this thread. I really hope that "secret service director" is not a position of power or authority in Ukraine.

Also, lol at people thinking that the US/NATO running around and ignoring international law williy-nilly is not relevant to the discussion. Following rules, if you are the only doing it, is almost always pretty stupid. The sad truth is that US/NATO behavior of the last two decades is partially responsible for the poo poo show in eastern Ukraine.

Sadly he is. Literally the equivalent of their CIA chief, with the actual CIA working to increase his "authority".
Mind you, he is somewhat more sane then "Russia nuked Luhansk" Geletej, he is also the guy in charge of "investigating" who shot whom on Maidan, as well as in charge of "investigating" Odessa.
On the other hand, he is so incompetent that he is pretty far down on the "people we want to get rid of" list for patriotic sane Ukrainians, (For those that I do know, its 1: Certain Seperatist leaders, especially the helicoptored variety 2: Kolomoisky 3: Yats and then the "normal oligarchs") largely because he is perceived as so incompetent that he isnt that threatening.

Following rules can be translated into legitimacy for you position, and it can also help to reinforce the rule system in general. It also means greater credibility when it comes to punishing those that do not follow the rule system.
This can be worthwhile if you wrote that rule system in the first place and it benefits you, so, following the rules tends to be the "perhaps better" strategy for currently dominating status quo powers, while expansonist/revisionist/revanchist powers tend to break or subvert them. This does not mean that f.e. the British Empire "followed the rules", but it generally tried to keep up appearances. Similiar things can be said for various regionally hegemonic Chinese states (Yuan being the exception, comes from being Mongols).

The truely exasperating thing is that the EU/US could have "won" Ukraine while following the rules, without bloodshed, and propably for a far cheaper total monetary price (the cost for increased militarisation, loss of markets in Russia, costs of increased instability, subsidies to Ukraine etc. will easily exceed 15 billion). Putins 15 billion offer could have been matched or outdone pretty easily, this would have kept the affair in the soft power realm where Russia holds really few cards. Putin did not intervene during the initial orange revolution, where the "Maidan coalition" was far broader and where Ukraines laws and its constitution where largely respected. As a matter of fact, initial Maidan came from a protest against a pretty clear violation of Ukraines laws.
Apart from that, Timoshenko wasnt a western puppet, Yuschenko wasnt exactly an obvious Soros expy either.

If you are hot on "defeating the Putin system", then peacefully, legally and legitimatly offering a better deal then Putin, proving by example that "joining the west" does not mean another round of shock therapy and oligarch rule would be a very effective way to do so.

Backing Nationalists to kill Russians, with another round of shock therapy administered by Oligarchs is pretty much the least attractive thing you could possibly do.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Discendo Vox posted:

Nice going, Brown Moses. I for one was surprised, and impressed, by just how conservative the report was with its claims.

Unsurprisingly most of the news reports are making the jump that it's definitely the Buk that downed MH17, even though we were at pains to say we weren't saying it was definite proof of that, but hey ho.

MeLKoR
Dec 23, 2004

by FactsAreUseless

Mightypeon posted:

Most peaceful period in human history? Are you serious?


Nintendo Kid posted:

Name one more peaceful.

Mightypeon
Oct 10, 2013

Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

El Scotch posted:

Compared to Germany, the US is pretty bad at starting wars and foreign conquest; if that's what you mean.

An interesting view of history. Germany is actually significantly smaller now than it was during its foundation (doesnt matter if you see current Germany as a successor of the Holy Roman Empire, or of the Prussian dominated North German federation, or both), while, other than Russia, no other state matched the territorial expansion of the USA since its founding and had those gains endure.
In terms of resources invested compared to gains made, the US-Mexican war and also WW2 for the USA where amongst histories most efficient wars. They were also won so thoroughly that their results still endure today.

The only ones who come close were the British (whose gains in Canada and Australia can still count as "kind of endured").

The last war that Germany actually won was one that she didnt start (unless you see the Boxer expedition as a serious war), which is now about 140 years in the past.

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

IIRC, Germany started a minor war 100 years ago. Might have something to do with the 'being smaller now'.

Is it more peaceful today? Yeah, maybe.

Mightypeon
Oct 10, 2013

Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

Concert of Europe from 1818 to around 1846?

Mightypeon
Oct 10, 2013

Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

El Scotch posted:

IIRC, Germany started a minor war 100 years ago. Might have something to do with the 'being smaller now'.

Is it more peaceful today? Yeah, maybe.

I have written that the last war Germany won was one she didnt start, she lost every war (well, one can see some parts of the interbellum Polish German wars as German victories, Poland did not seize Silesia, it wasnt exactly what goes under "major war") after that. That hardly makes her "good at conquest". If Germany was "good at agression", one would also expect her to occassionally win a war of agression, which, colonial shenangians aside (or perhaps the last Balkan war, that wasnt exactly an affair in which Germany covered herself in glory and the heavy lifting was done by the USA) has not happened since 150 years (Prusso/Austrian-Danish war, and well, Prussia and Austria teaming up against Denemark isnt exactly a great military achievment).

And apart from Russia and the British Empire, Americans are historically speaking among the best at conquest.

Nintendo Kid
Aug 4, 2011

by Smythe

Mightypeon posted:

Concert of Europe from 1818 to around 1846?

Relatively peaceful in Europe only.

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

Mightypeon posted:

I have written that the last war Germany won was one she didnt start, she lost every war (well, one can see some parts of the interbellum Polish German wars as German victories, Poland did not seize Silesia, it wasnt exactly what goes under "major war") after that. That hardly makes her "good at conquest". If Germany was "good at agression", one would also expect her to occassionally win a war of agression, which, colonial shenangians aside (or perhaps the last Balkan war, that wasnt exactly an affair in which Germany covered herself in glory and the heavy lifting was done by the USA) has not happened since 150 years (Prusso/Austrian-Danish war, and well, Prussia and Austria teaming up against Denemark isnt exactly a great military achievment).

And apart from Russia and the British Empire, Americans are historically speaking among the best at conquest.

You're much, much better at starting wars. You rant about how bad and evil and aggressive 'Murica is but they can't hold a candle to you for death and destruction.

Now go back to working on your Trebant and save us the gibberish.

Oh, and don't forget to check for American's under your bed before you go to sleep tonight, never know.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Mightypeon posted:

Concert of Europe from 1818 to around 1846?

A time period full of a bunch of colonial wars?

karthun
Nov 16, 2006

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Jarmak posted:

A time period full of a bunch of colonial wars?

Those were against uncivilized colored people, they don't count for Mightypeon.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Brown Moses posted:

Unsurprisingly most of the news reports are making the jump that it's definitely the Buk that downed MH17, even though we were at pains to say we weren't saying it was definite proof of that, but hey ho.

Don't worry BrownMoses, Putin will hold a press conference in Hong Kong to announce that Russian intelligence reports a dastardly gang of drunken Ukranians from the Zaporozhian Host decided to hijack a Buk in Donetsk and fire on that poor Malaysian flight, interpreting it as a Tu-110 inbound with the crack Spetsnaz team that Moscow dispatched once Putin was informed that a Buk had fallen into terrorist hands, which, fortunately, was then, in drunken stupor, driven to Luhansk where an advance team of anti-terrorist forces intercepted and regained control of the Buk while liquidating its crew without any apparent sign of struggle.

Obviously, because the West cannot be trusted as a partner in counter-terrorist efforts, Russia will have to take matters in Ukraine into its own hands, with Gazprom and Lukoil being listed on the Hang Seng exchange for any entrepreneurs committed to the defence of the civilized world against cowardly acts of state-sponsored terror.

Mightypeon posted:

Concert of Europe from 1818 to around 1846?

For shame MightyPeon, I'd expect you to know more about the Imperial Russian moves to liberate Baloochistan and India from East India Company slavery, and thus ensuring the success of Abraham Lincoln by providing a secure source of cotton and defeating the Slave Empire in America.

E:

Realchat BrownMoses, a while ago before you launched BellingCat and were focused on the Arab Spring, you posted your methodology for analysis of twitter/social media. Don't suppose you'd have a link handy?

My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 02:59 on Nov 10, 2014

MeLKoR
Dec 23, 2004

by FactsAreUseless

Mightypeon posted:

Concert of Europe from 1818 to around 1846?

I'm going to make an appeal to whatever self-awareness you have. Consider for a minute that you dismissed out of hand that this was history's most peaceful period on the grounds that there are still some wars in the world and suggested alternatively that a period when Europe was too busy raping and pillaging the rest of the world to fight among itself was more peaceful.
Do you believe that this is a position you would arrive at through logic if it wasn't in the context of excusing Russia's present actions? Can you not understand why no one takes you seriously? You come off as a shill. poo poo, you are a shill whether you see yourself like that or not.

Forget all this bullshit Great Game rhetoric for a minute. If this exact sequence of events had involved, say, Nigeria, Benin and the African Union would you also be batting for Nigeria's right to control her "sphere of influence" and carve up Benin piecemeal? You come off as a leftist kind of guy so I'm gonna go with no because you should in theory be opposed to imperialism in all forms. Why then are you falling for baby's first Real Politic mistake of thinking the "enemy of my enemy is my friend"? Russia can be in the wrong even if they oppose the US. Opposing the US shouldn't be your measure of righteousness.

MeLKoR fucked around with this message at 02:39 on Nov 10, 2014

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Mightypeon posted:

Concert of Europe from 1818 to around 1846?

all of 28 years, in Europe only, immediately after one of the largest, most destructive wars in European history, sure sounds like a era of peace to me

StandardVC10
Feb 6, 2007

This avatar now 50% more dark mode compliant

Nintendo Kid posted:

Relatively peaceful in Europe only.

Within Europe, there was also the July Revolution in France in 1830.

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

Was browsing some Russian mil-sim stuff on Facebook and found out that DoberGuard, a Red Alliance forum member who makes custom gear for airsofters, has joined the Donetsk rebels. He's promised to handle his business after the war stops.

chitoryu12 fucked around with this message at 03:03 on Nov 10, 2014

Maarek
Jun 9, 2002

Your silence only incriminates you further.
It's weird that people jumped all over the idea of the Concert of Europe being a ridiculous model for peace, but nobody has anything to say about all this Pax Americana bullshit being laid out in the thread. When was this peaceful hegemonic period? 1990-2001? What about the wars in the Balkans, Somalia, and the first gulf war? If we're still in it, do the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya not count?

If the suggestion is that we haven't had any 'major' wars in a long while, I'd say that the embarassments of Vietnam and Afghanistan and threat of nuclear annihilation have had a lot more to do with the 'peaceful' world of the last 70 years than anything else. People had these same dumb ideas about the Roman Empire, but it's weird to see them falling for it again in 2014.

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

The last 50 years seem pretty peaceful compared to the previous 50.

Maarek
Jun 9, 2002

Your silence only incriminates you further.
Well, let's give even more people atomic weapons and the next 50 will be even peacier than those!

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

Maarek posted:

Well, let's give even more people atomic weapons and the next 50 will be even peacier than those!

Probably, yes.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Maarek posted:

Well, let's give even more people atomic weapons and the next 50 will be even peacier than those!

MAD continues to deliver! Thank goodness for the elephant in the room.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
Ukraine should have kept their nukes.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

McDowell posted:

Ukraine should have kept their nukes.

That is the hilarious and sad part:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine

quote:

On December 5, 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Britain and the United States signed a memorandum to remove nuclear weapons in Ukraine. They all signed six agreements for Ukraine, the agreements are:[2]

The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;
The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;
The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind;
The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of[2] an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used;
The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclearweapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a State in association or alliance with a nuclear-weapon State;
Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.[2]

Maarek
Jun 9, 2002

Your silence only incriminates you further.
Exactly. Hegemons do whatever is in their best interests, nothing more and nothing less. To think that one having overwhelming power will make peace is just as stupid as thinking another Cold War would make things more stable in Europe.

Smerdyakov
Jul 8, 2008

McDowell posted:

Ukraine should have kept their nukes.

It's a bit like South Africa: even if they'd really wanted to, they probably wouldn't have been allowed to.

More treaties should come with an explicit expiration date, because anyone expecting a treaty to be honored 30 years later needs to visit a reservation sometime.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
I'm waiting for the Outer Space treaties to start getting scrapped, I give it 5 or 10 years.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

McDowell posted:

I'm waiting for the Outer Space treaties to start getting scrapped, I give it 5 or 10 years.

Soon. Russia has already said its starting to make more nukes, nullifying the START treaty.

Torka
Jan 5, 2008

I wish all this dick-waving would find expression as a new space race

MeLKoR
Dec 23, 2004

by FactsAreUseless

Maarek posted:

Exactly. Hegemons do whatever is in their best interests, nothing more and nothing less. To think that one having overwhelming power will make peace is just as stupid as thinking another Cold War would make things more stable in Europe.

No duh, no one is arguing the opposite. What we are arguing is that there is such a thing as the lesser of two evils and that even though the US could and should have used the victory in the Cold War differently they are still light years ahead of how a Russian global hegemon would behave.

Just because among many other things I opposed the Iraq invasion for the evident clusterfuck it was bound to become and just because I oppose the carte blanche the US gives Israel doesn't make me blind to how terrible the alternative is.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Torka posted:

I wish all this dick-waving would find expression as a new space race

Depending on what China does, that could still happen. I do not think China ever signed the Space Treaty on Weapons limitations, so if they push their manned program out, we may get itchy.

Thats a big maybe.

Okan170
Nov 14, 2007

Torpedoes away!

CommieGIR posted:

Depending on what China does, that could still happen. I do not think China ever signed the Space Treaty on Weapons limitations, so if they push their manned program out, we may get itchy.

Thats a big maybe.

We might see political will materialize if they decide to attempt manned Lunar missions of any kind.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

StandardVC10 posted:

Within Europe, there was also the July Revolution in France in 1830.
Plus the Greek War of Independence, the (8th) Russo-Turkish War, the Portuguese Civil War, the November Uprising, the First Carlist War, and the Belgian Revolution.

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Mightypeon
Oct 10, 2013

Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.
Meanwhile, Zakharachenko tries to centralize power.

In more actual News, Bezler sack is for real (as in sacked, not as in "he actually stopped leading People"), Mozgovois Brigade got "integrated into Novorussijas armed Forces", which he liked, but not as Brigade but distributed towards other formations, which he categorically rejected. It is not yet clear what will happen from that.

Zakharachenko apperantly tried decorating Strelkov and Borodai as "heroes of Donbass republic", to which Strelkov replied stating that he isnt taking any medals from him.

Russia is stepping up the Military supply things, partly to back Zakharaechenko who is very much their guy, partly to forestall moves by Ukraine.

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