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Jerry Manderbilt posted:This technically isn't about the senate, but what would be the prospects of McCrory getting ousted? In a presidential year? It's a tossup since Cooper is already prepping. McCrory would have won in 2008 if not for Obama. He would have had a closer race in 2012 if Dalton had more time to raise money and get his name out, since Perdue screwed him by dropping out late. Cooper has name ID already as the guy who tells you about how he'll stick a hot poker up your rear end if you price gouge after a hurricane. Between that, Senate, prez, and an open AG seat, a shitton of money will get dropped on NC. I'm glad I left.
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Nov 12, 2014 02:25
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:This technically isn't about the senate, but what would be the prospects of McCrory getting ousted? Depends. He got about a third of the dem vote last time, which probably won't happen again, and Cooper's about as strong a candidate as possible. On the other hand McCrory's got a lot of bosses with deep pockets and the antics of the legislature don't really register on most voters' minds it would seem. De Nomolos posted:EDIT: Burr "plans on running," so this is all speculation. If he does, my money is on some State Senator taking the fall. Apparently Foxx is out. I could see Foxx testing the waters. Is he really gonna go back to Charlotte after DC? Dude definitely has his eye on bigger stuff, and I would've put money on a governor run had Cooper not called dibs pretty much before Mayor McCheese took office.
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Nov 12, 2014 03:03
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evilweasel posted:Pennsylvania is one of the key targets for the 2020 redistricting: in Presidential years Democrats tend to have a bit of an edge, but their seats are 5D/13R. That's a 16-seat swing if they can take Pennsylvania for the redistricting. Ohio is more of a reach but another key target as well. It's not PA/OH sized, but retaking the Virginia state legislature across 2015, 2017, and 2019 (absurdly optimistic but technically doable) could move VA from a 3-8 split (maybe 4-7 if we're lucky) to a 6-5 split. Virginia has four Congressional districts that are between R+2 and R+5 - even a compromise map could get us to 5-6 instead of 3-8.
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Nov 12, 2014 03:57
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comes along bort posted:I could see Foxx testing the waters. Is he really gonna go back to Charlotte after DC? Dude definitely has his eye on bigger stuff, and I would've put money on a governor run had Cooper not called dibs pretty much before Mayor McCheese took office. Foxx says he's not running. No idea why, but I'm sure some would say it's the Patrick Cannon thing, which it isn't, but the speculation's there. Jackson Taus posted:It's not PA/OH sized, but retaking the Virginia state legislature across 2015, 2017, and 2019 (absurdly optimistic but technically doable) could move VA from a 3-8 split (maybe 4-7 if we're lucky) to a 6-5 split. Virginia has four Congressional districts that are between R+2 and R+5 - even a compromise map could get us to 5-6 instead of 3-8. Well, we know one minority-influence seat is coming, probably centered in Richmond and aimed at loving over Dave Brat (good riddance). 4-7 is the new baseline. Unpacking the 3rd likely also does something to the 2nd and 4th, which are both almost pure toss-ups anyway. One has to take in black voters from either Petersburg or Portsmouth/Chesapeake. I'd wager it stays 5-6 Dem for awhile starting in 2016/18. I don't think the 10th is one of those districts until Comstock is gone, probably to challenge Kaine.
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Nov 12, 2014 04:32
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De Nomolos posted:I'd wager it stays 5-6 Dem for awhile starting in 2016/18. I don't think the 10th is one of those districts until Comstock is gone, probably to challenge Kaine.
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Nov 12, 2014 04:36
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De Nomolos posted:Foxx says he's not running. No idea why, but I'm sure some would say it's the Patrick Cannon thing, which it isn't, but the speculation's there. Has he himself actually said it? I know Politico quoted Burr saying Foxx told him he wasn't gonna run but c'mon now.
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Nov 12, 2014 06:32
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AKSEN absentee/early vote/questioned ballot count has begun. With 15257 of ~53000 ballots counted, Begich has gained a net 78 votes, is still down over 8000 votes and will need to win the remaining uncounted ballots by over 27 points to make up the gap. I would expect an official network call by tomorrow afternoon.
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Nov 12, 2014 06:39
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In other news it looks like Martha McSally has "won" in Arizona though the race is so close that a recount will occur and who knows what will happen then. Costa might (or might not, with odds slightly favoring "might not",) lose too. Every other close race is breaking the Democrats' way leaving a net loss of 14 or 15 house seats. Its interesting, the Democrats have yet to lose an incumbent's seat in California and did not pick up any in 2010 either (though that was majorly helped by gerrymandering.) You'd have to think that if it weren't for their jungle primaries there would be Green or Peace and Freedom candidates loving up at least one of those close contests.
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Nov 12, 2014 07:12
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evilweasel posted:Actually you need it in 2020, the redistricting happens between 2020 and 2022. Most of the governors who will preside over the next round of redistricting will be elected in 2018. Also, some state legislative bodies (the Michigan state senate, for example) are only elected in midterm years. Does anybody think there is a chance that the size of the House will be increased any time soon? It's been at 435 for over a hundred years, and in that time the country's population has more than tripled. Isobar has issued a correction as of 08:34 on Nov 12, 2014 |
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Nov 12, 2014 08:30
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With Begich down 7911 votes after tonight's count, the AP calls AK for Dan Sullivan and officially moves total R pickups to +8 with LA runoff next month.
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Nov 12, 2014 09:07
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Begich is the Senate loss that bums me out the most, actually, even though he was pretty bad on some issues. I really thought his massive GOTV in the Alaskan hinterlands would be enough to pull him through,
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Nov 12, 2014 16:57
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Tammy Duckworth is expecting a daughter next month and not expecting to challenge Mark Kirk in 2016.
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Nov 12, 2014 17:10
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Joementum posted:Tammy Duckworth is expecting a daughter next month and not expecting to challenge Mark Kirk in 2016. You know there's a guy who will be looking for a job in 2016 that has been successful in Illinois races 
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Nov 12, 2014 17:11
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evilweasel posted:You know there's a guy who will be looking for a job in 2016 that has been successful in Illinois races The only thing to create more entertainment from right wing media than this is for him to be the replacement for one of the conservative justices on the Supreme Court.
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Nov 12, 2014 18:53
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Gyges posted:The only thing to create more entertainment from right wing media than this is for him to be the replacement for one of the conservative justices on the Supreme Court. Obama should nominate Lisa to the Supreme Court if he wants real right-wing outrage. Foster doesn't have the people-to-people ability to raise enough cash to win a Senate race, imo. Raul is a possibility, Quinn...well, he's Quinn, so who knows?
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Nov 12, 2014 19:11
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UnclePlasticBitch posted:Begich is the Senate loss that bums me out the most, actually, even though he was pretty bad on some issues. I really thought his massive GOTV in the Alaskan hinterlands would be enough to pull him through, 
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Nov 12, 2014 20:10
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Joementum posted:Tammy Duckworth is expecting a daughter next month and not expecting to challenge Mark Kirk in 2016. quote:Among potential candidates on my list: U.S. Rep. Bill Foster, D-Naperville, who has a nicely nonpartisan style about him; state Sen. Kwame Raoul, a fast-rising Chicagoan who represents some of Barack Obama’s old state Senate district;
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Nov 12, 2014 20:37
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evilweasel posted:You know there's a guy who will be looking for a job in 2016 that has been successful in Illinois races Though one of those was against Alan Keyes.
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Nov 12, 2014 20:39
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I hope Kwame gets the nod, America needs more beefcakes in government: Of course the Democrats will probably shoot themselves in the foot again by going with Foster in hopes of more campaign contributions
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Nov 12, 2014 20:52
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Now there's a man who knows what a fedora is for. 
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Nov 12, 2014 21:20
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Bro Dad posted:I hope Kwame gets the nod, America needs more beefcakes in government: But which will win out in the end? The ironic goon love of fedoras or the unironic goon shaming of anyone who wears a fedora?
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Nov 12, 2014 21:45
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:But which will win out in the end? The ironic goon love of fedoras or the unironic goon shaming of anyone who wears a fedora? This guy is actually classy-looking, unlike your average le gentlemanchild Redditor, so I'll give him a pass on it.
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Nov 12, 2014 21:53
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The fedora must be matched with an appropriately classy throwback suit, not a trench coat and cargo shorts.
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Nov 12, 2014 21:59
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Jackson Taus posted:It's not PA/OH sized, but retaking the Virginia state legislature across 2015, 2017, and 2019 (absurdly optimistic but technically doable) could move VA from a 3-8 split (maybe 4-7 if we're lucky) to a 6-5 split. Virginia has four Congressional districts that are between R+2 and R+5 - even a compromise map could get us to 5-6 instead of 3-8. This will not happen. Here's why: 1. Virginia's elections are on odd-numbered years and the electorate is very unfavorable to Democrats. 2. The Democrats agreed to a redistricting deal in 2010 where the Senate would be gerrymandered in their favor, and the House in favor of Republicans, to prevent Republicans from taking complete control of the government in 2011*. They subsequently lost the Senate anyway. Meanwhile Republicans control 2/3rds of the House. 3. Terry McAuliffe is proving unpopular for a variety of reasons, such as being an rear end in a top hat. 4. The Democratic Party in Virginia, especially in the General Assembly, is a bunch of incompetent buffoons. The Democrats have no hope whatsoever of taking back the House of Delegates for the foreseeable future, and I'm not sure they can even take back the the Senate. *Edited to correct dates, was previously 2011 and 2013. Mortabis has issued a correction as of 02:13 on Nov 13, 2014 |
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Nov 13, 2014 00:16
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:This guy is actually classy-looking, unlike your average le gentlemanchild Redditor, so I'll give him a pass on it. Internet Webguy posted:The fedora must be matched with an appropriately classy throwback suit, not a trench coat and cargo shorts. This actually came up once before when discussing Obama's  tan suit  Bill Clinton can most definitely pull off the fedora look. The exceptions to the fedora rule are Indiana Jones (since it's his iconic look) and Freddy Krueger, because mocking the burned guy with a metal claw who can literally kill you in your dreams is an extremely bad idea, no matter how unfashionable wearing a sweater with a fedora is.  Mortabis posted:3. Terry McAuliffe is proving unpopular for a variety of reasons, such as being an rear end in a top hat.
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Nov 13, 2014 00:37
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Yeah, but the other part of the fedora rule is that even people who can pull it off typically look better without, and that includes Bill.
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Nov 13, 2014 00:44
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evilweasel posted:You know there's a guy who will be looking for a job in 2016 that has been successful in Illinois races I'm sad John Quincy Adamsing it up didn't become a trend. Nowadays the speaking circuit is too much money to resist. Jimmy Cartering is an acceptable alternative to be sure. Edit: Of course in the fifty years you've had mitigating circumstances: JFK got shot; LBJ had had enough of everything and Vietnam was a disaster; Nixon managed to slowly rehabilitate himself but could never run for office again; Reagan had no mind left while still in office... Sulphagnist has issued a correction as of 13:42 on Nov 13, 2014 |
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Nov 13, 2014 13:38
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Mortabis posted:This will not happen. Here's why: Your assessment is accurate, but McAuliffe's approval rating is actually up, sitting at about 47/27 approve/disapprove right now. Not like that will matter. VA Democrats have a better chance of winning one more additional seat once they unpack the 3rd than they do to win 1 more Senate seat, largely because they are awful at recruitment. I think last I checked, two of their recruits in closer seats next year lost state HOUSE races in 2013 (one by a ton)...and that was pretty much their recruitment base. They have a shot at 1 seat in Southside that they lost by a couple hundred last time, but that seat is entirely dependent on black turnout, which never materializes in odd years. I really, really don't like Virginia's Democrats in the GA. I know of at least 2 good candidates for swing seats (local electeds) they've scared off in the past by just being massive dicks about everything.
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Nov 13, 2014 14:24
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Hats with a suit are transparently ridiculous, the only men who look good in them are handsome enough to look good in ridiculous clothing. Exception: cowboy hat
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Nov 13, 2014 15:18
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the only time to wear a hat with a suit is in weather
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Nov 13, 2014 15:26
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fade5 posted:This actually came up once before when discussing Obama's I'm still holding onto "the audacity of taupe" for use later in life, no matter how unlikely an appropriate situation might seem.
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Nov 13, 2014 15:32
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I mean look at this, this is children of the wasteland aping their dimly remembered predecessors in an attempt to recreate times of prosperity and elan. This is literally adding the item "Pre-War Hat" to your inventory as you scavenge for Nuka-Cola.
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Nov 13, 2014 17:29
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SedanChair posted:Hats with a suit are transparently ridiculous, the only men who look good in them are handsome enough to look good in ridiculous clothing. The only time it is legitimately acceptable to wear a suit with a hat in modern society is when on stage, ideally because you are, in fact, a jazz musician. This is why most of the examples of "good" fedora wearing are black male musicians, but it's not necessarily racial, and caucasians can pull it off (see: Duke Silver) it's just that more black men than white men play jazz. Hieronymous Alloy has issued a correction as of 17:42 on Nov 13, 2014 |
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Nov 13, 2014 17:38
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Cliff Racer posted:I don't mean to be racist (against white southerners?) but I don't think they'd ever give enough of their vote vote to a black Democrat from urban New Orleans for him to be at all competitive. Hey, the south is starting to elect (republican) black senators again and being white isn't really helping Landrieu out much. The moratorium basically finished destroying the democratic party in Louisiana. The best candidate they've found to run against Vitter for governor is a guy that looks like a weaselly politician with no chance of beating him. (Presumably Mitch is waiting to run for governor until the waters look better.)
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Nov 13, 2014 17:43
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The only time it is legitimately acceptable to wear a suit with a hat in modern society is when on stage, ideally because you are, in fact, a jazz musician. This is why most of the examples of "good" fedora wearing are black male musicians, but it's not necessarily racial, and caucasians can pull it off (see: Duke Silver) it's just that more black men than white men play jazz. Old white dudes who play jazz look dorkier than the sound engineers of the bars they play in. They don't look good in anything.
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Nov 13, 2014 17:53
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sugar free jazz posted:Old white dudes who play jazz look dorkier than the sound engineers of the bars they play in. They don't look good in anything. 
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Nov 13, 2014 18:38
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He said play jazz, not haltingly make your way through the head of a few popular tunes
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Nov 13, 2014 18:40
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sugar free jazz posted:Old white dudes who play jazz look dorkier than the sound engineers of the bars they play in. They don't look good in anything. Well, I did say "can" not "do".
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Nov 13, 2014 18:58
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SedanChair posted:He said play jazz, not haltingly make your way through the head of a few popular tunes Say what you want about Bill, but he does have chops.
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Nov 13, 2014 19:03
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DSCC and NRSC chairs for 2016 announced. Dems choose Tester and GOP chooses... Wicker?
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Nov 13, 2014 21:38
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