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Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Zephro posted:

"Cameron, still speaking in the Commons, says he does not believe it is acceptable that there should be internet communications that authorities are not permitted to intercept. The government should legislate on this, he adds."

Which seems basically to say "it should be illegal to have a truly private conversation online"
Given that you can create off-the-record conversations that cannot be read after the fact even if you have the key/password, it seems like he is also saying "it is not acceptable that mathematics does not work how I would like it to".

e: 1963 - Belgian cryptographer and cryptanalyst Bart Preneel is born.

Guavanaut fucked around with this message at 16:01 on Nov 25, 2014

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notaspy
Mar 22, 2009

The New Black posted:





Kinda weird.

Anyway, looks to me like the report is going to be used to push for big expansions of online surveillance. If I were cynical I'd think they announced those plans to track everyone's IP (or whatever it was) to coincide with this.

Its ok mi5, you had this guy on your watch list 7 times, it's not your fault Mr rigby was killed.

But you unnamed ISP, your disgusting hiding of this one conversation has marked to as nothing less than an enemy of the state!


What utter, utter bullshit! Its not even a well hidden attack on privacy.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
Yes the difference to fiction being that this is based on idiocy and misunderstanding technology rather than any desire to rule the world. Cameron is a PR guy and doesn't have the will to power. He is, however, paving the road for the true Tory or UKIP ubermensch (chrome corrects this to Lumberman, I think there is room for a new chrome autocorrection based divination cult).

Zephro
Nov 23, 2000

I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Guavanaut posted:

Given that you can create off-the-record conversations that cannot be read after the fact even if you have the key/password, it seems like he is also saying "it is not acceptable that mathematics does not work how I would like it to".
You can also make software like that illegal to possess.

RIPA prescribes up to five years in jail for failing to disclose an encryption key, for what it's worth. Three people have so far been convicted under it.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Zephro posted:

You can also make software like that illegal to possess.

RIPA prescribes up to five years in jail for failing to disclose an encryption key, for what it's worth. Three people have so far been convicted under it.

Then I guess our prisons are going to fill up with nerds. If the laws are as inane and unworkable as they appear to be then all people have to do is dig their heels in. Everyone pretend to be a jihadi for a day while also being a twitter troll. Combine both. I don't think they can hold us all.

communism bitch
Apr 24, 2009

Regarde Aduck posted:

Then I guess our prisons are going to fill up with nerds. If the laws are as inane and unworkable as they appear to be then all people have to do is dig their heels in. Everyone pretend to be a jihadi for a day while also being a twitter troll. Combine both. I don't think they can hold us all.

Can't hold everybody, but they could slap every charge they can think of and push for maximum sentences on a handful as an example to the rest.

Cerv
Sep 14, 2004

This is a silly post with little news value.

Fat Turkey posted:

The rant was supposedly triggered by Mellor believing the taxi driver was taking a longer route.

And to be fair, I could understand why a London cabbie picking up David Mellor (either to or from Buckingham Palace) might be inclined to take a scenic route.

it's a strange mentality.
can't care about the price really, or why would he get a cab instead of the tube? don't even have to change trains. would be just as quick, if not more so in the middle of the day.

communism bitch
Apr 24, 2009

Cerv posted:

it's a strange mentality.
can't care about the price really, or why would he get a cab instead of the tube? don't even have to change trains. would be just as quick, if not more so in the middle of the day.

The tube?? with poors??? when his wife just got an CBE??? ohohoh non monsieur.

Prince John
Jun 20, 2006

Oh, poppycock! Female bandits?

Zephro posted:


Which seems basically to say "it should be illegal to have a truly private conversation online"

Is there a single political party in the UK that puts stopping this kind of bullshit into its manifesto?

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Zephro posted:

You can also make software like that illegal to possess.

RIPA prescribes up to five years in jail for failing to disclose an encryption key, for what it's worth. Three people have so far been convicted under it.
There has been a large push towards liberalization of cryptography and encouraging people to use more security on the internet in recent decades. If there was a popular messaging app that used proper OTR type security I can't really see the government outright banning it. (Although I'm always open to them finding new and stupid ways to surprise me.)

As bad as RIPA and other forced key disclosure laws can be, they also don't matter worth a poo poo if the messaging app uses forward secrecy and doesn't allow recovery of any past messages.

(As to why there might be a popular messaging app that uses those types of secrecy, the 'snappening' and other types of malicious redistribution of personal data should be a pretty good cause.)

Zephro
Nov 23, 2000

I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Prince John posted:

Is there a single political party in the UK that puts stopping this kind of bullshit into its manifesto?
I think the Greens, maybe?

edit: comedy Pirate Party option.

The New Black
Oct 1, 2006

Had it, lost it.

Prince John posted:

Is there a single political party in the UK that puts stopping this kind of bullshit into its manifesto?

Can't speak to this specific issue but the Greens have in the past had a few pro-privacy and anti-government secrecy bits in manifestos, though they generally qualify it, like 'privacy law should protect civil liberties but also national security' or 'government information should be free except where it has to be restricted'. So basically meaningless. Though they are against ID cards and a national biometric database.

Haven't the Lib Dems been decent enough on privacy issues in the past? I seem to remember it was them that torpedoed the original snoopers charter (prepare for the sequel) earlier this year.

Renaissance Robot
Oct 10, 2010

Bite my furry metal ass

Guavanaut posted:

Given that you can create off-the-record conversations that cannot be read after the fact even if you have the key/password, it seems like he is also saying "it is not acceptable that mathematics does not work how I would like it to".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2rGTXHvPCQ

Fat Turkey
Aug 1, 2004

Gobble Gobble Gobble!

Cerv posted:

it's a strange mentality.
can't care about the price really, or why would he get a cab instead of the tube? don't even have to change trains. would be just as quick, if not more so in the middle of the day.

Isn't the closest station to the Palace about a mile away? If you're rich like those two, why wouldn't you just taxi it? I mean I'd quite happily walk it but it is a special occasion for them. Doesn't seem that odd to me.

Acaila
Jan 2, 2011



IceAgeComing posted:

The only sure thing in Scotland IMO is the number of Lib Dem seats: they'll definitely have three since they'll never lose Orkney, Kennedy is still popular in Ross, Skye and Lochaber and I believe that Caithness still likes John Thurso - Inverness depends on Danny Alexander saying more dumb things and whether Salmond stands against him, but you never know with Liberal incumbents in the North of Scotland.

Alexander is going to lose, I'm totally convinced of that. His seat isn't really on the same par as the others in terms of traditional Lib Demmery (I think they only first won it from Labour in 2001 after boundary changes) and he is really hated there. I have a pal who lives in Inverness and unfortunately looks a lot like the ginger rodent and regularly gets crap from people in the street because of it. Not to mention Inverness went Yes. If he's to still be around next parliament they need to parachute him in somewhere else.

I can believe Thurso would be safe, though the equivalent Holyrood constituency for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (actually I think that is the Holyrood constituency and the Westminster one is Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch now?) went SNP when John Farquhar Munro retired. I'm hoping the perennial fence sitter loses it anyway.

Someone else mentioned Jo Swinson, she was predicted to lose her seat last I heard. A while ago anyway Lib Dems were projected to have no female MPs at all in the next Parliament.

I'm currently freaking that the Tories might take Edinburgh West or South West though. Could not handle that :(

keep punching joe
Jan 22, 2006

Die Satan!
Edinburgh is full of pricks though, so Tories are an inevitability.

ThomasPaine
Feb 4, 2009

We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.
I keep seeing the word 'luvvie' used as a pejorative against left-wingers. Usually by aged, socially conservative right-wingers. I have no idea what it means. Someone explain. Dictionary definitions all just talk about theatres and actors so god knows. The right seems to have an exclusive monopoly on some words too - Loony for example. It's loving weird.

Acaila
Jan 2, 2011



ThomasPaine posted:

I keep seeing the word 'luvvie' used as a pejorative against left-wingers. Usually by aged, socially conservative right-wingers. I have no idea what it means. Someone explain. Dictionary definitions all just talk about theatres and actors so god knows. The right seems to have an exclusive monopoly on some words too - Loony for example. It's loving weird.

Never heard that as a general term for left-wingers. It is usually applied to actors in the overly familiar and pretentious vein. I guess that arty folk tend more towards the left, but not something I've seen personally so I can't say.

I don't know if I'm better voting Labour or SNP to keep Tories out. Hopefully get some local polling on the go.

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009

ThomasPaine posted:

I keep seeing the word 'luvvie' used as a pejorative against left-wingers. Usually by aged, socially conservative right-wingers. I have no idea what it means. Someone explain. Dictionary definitions all just talk about theatres and actors so god knows. The right seems to have an exclusive monopoly on some words too - Loony for example. It's loving weird.

Right wing insults are always the best. I like "do gooder".

Fat Turkey
Aug 1, 2004

Gobble Gobble Gobble!
Luvvie is an affectionate term used to refer to someone, closely associated with the acting profession. Everyone knows all actors are homosexual and left-wing, hence why luvvie is used to refer to lefties. Apparently.

Shelf Adventure
Jul 18, 2006
I'm down with that brother
Jesus gently caress am I sick of job adverts wanting me to write essays worth of words.

I was also asked for my passport number, place of birth, start and end dates. Perhaps not.

TinTower
Apr 21, 2010

You don't have to 8e a good person to 8e a hero.

Acaila posted:

Alexander is going to lose, I'm totally convinced of that. His seat isn't really on the same par as the others in terms of traditional Lib Demmery (I think they only first won it from Labour in 2001 after boundary changes) and he is really hated there. I have a pal who lives in Inverness and unfortunately looks a lot like the ginger rodent and regularly gets crap from people in the street because of it. Not to mention Inverness went Yes. If he's to still be around next parliament they need to parachute him in somewhere else.

I can believe Thurso would be safe, though the equivalent Holyrood constituency for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (actually I think that is the Holyrood constituency and the Westminster one is Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch now?) went SNP when John Farquhar Munro retired. I'm hoping the perennial fence sitter loses it anyway.

Someone else mentioned Jo Swinson, she was predicted to lose her seat last I heard. A while ago anyway Lib Dems were projected to have no female MPs at all in the next Parliament.

I'm currently freaking that the Tories might take Edinburgh West or South West though. Could not handle that :(

As I mentioned, Thurso literally owns most of the constituency. I think Alexander's likely to survive from a SNP/Labour vote split. There'll be a lot of constituencies where three parties have between 20% and 40% of the vote, a lot of them in Scotland.

That said, the Lib Dems will almost certainly have at least one female MP in the next Parliament; there's absolutely no way that the Lib Dems won't gain Watford given Dorothy Thornhill's massive popularity. OxWab and Montgomeryshire also have selected female candidates and they're massive targets for the Lib Dems to take back.

Zephro posted:

You can also make software like that illegal to possess.

RIPA prescribes up to five years in jail for failing to disclose an encryption key, for what it's worth. Three people have so far been convicted under it.

A blanket ban on encryption software would almost certainly be instantly struck down under Article 8, not to mention be incredibly unpopular with nearly everyone as it would mean most smartphones would have to be pulled from shelves, as both iOS 8 and Android Lollipop (as well as OS X Yosemite) now enable FDE by default. Not to mention that Parliament would pass a bill so cack-handed that it would ban accessing any websites that have SSL certificates (after all, after Labour accidentally tried to ban coffee, I don't have that much faith in legislating on specialist subjects).

ThomasPaine
Feb 4, 2009

We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.

Acaila posted:

Never heard that as a general term for left-wingers. It is usually applied to actors in the overly familiar and pretentious vein. I guess that arty folk tend more towards the left, but not something I've seen personally so I can't say.

I don't know if I'm better voting Labour or SNP to keep Tories out. Hopefully get some local polling on the go.

I'd suggest SNP. Labour are in meltdown, and to be honest they deserve to be. The SNP are better at being Labour than Labour are, on a lot of issues. Voting for the SNP you get all of (probably more) benefits as you would from a Labour MP, with the added bonus of shoving it to the Westminster establishment. The quicker we get break down the two party system the better (christ, I'm even seeing UKIP successes as kind of positive in that light, if nothing else). SNP have also said they'd consider coalition with Labour to keep out the Tories.

Though I'd much prefer everyone buggered off with the whole tactical voting thing and just went for who they wanted to be in power.

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.

Christ that was painful.

Yet I can imagine an MP watching it and going "ohhhhhh so that's what the internet is"


Edit: woah I just got font shock.

Microplastics fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Nov 25, 2014

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

Guavanaut posted:

There has been a large push towards liberalization of cryptography and encouraging people to use more security on the internet in recent decades. If there was a popular messaging app that used proper OTR type security I can't really see the government outright banning it. (Although I'm always open to them finding new and stupid ways to surprise me.)

As bad as RIPA and other forced key disclosure laws can be, they also don't matter worth a poo poo if the messaging app uses forward secrecy and doesn't allow recovery of any past messages.

(As to why there might be a popular messaging app that uses those types of secrecy, the 'snappening' and other types of malicious redistribution of personal data should be a pretty good cause.)

Given all the various nude picture leaks have come from grabbing the pictures at rest rather than in transit, mostly through really bone-headed security mistakes on the part of the users or companies, all the crypto in the world wouldn't have helped.

There are messaging apps that are - to all intents and purposes - immune to interception. Nobody uses them because they're fiddly to set up and use, and always will be because good security measures are more or less completely antithetical to good usability - and even then you've still got to deal with the endpoints of the communications. In fact, all of the popular messaging applications in use offer, if you'll excuse the phrase, pretty good privacy.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

TinTower posted:

A blanket ban on encryption software would almost certainly be instantly struck down under Article 8, not to mention be incredibly unpopular with nearly everyone as it would mean most smartphones would have to be pulled from shelves, as both iOS 8 and Android Lollipop (as well as OS X Yosemite) now enable FDE by default. Not to mention that Parliament would pass a bill so cack-handed that it would ban accessing any websites that have SSL certificates (after all, after Labour accidentally tried to ban coffee, I don't have that much faith in legislating on specialist subjects).

A ban on strong encryption would make almost every computer and phone sold this century illegal, and outside of a few fevered EFF types and the occasional "New technology baffles pissed old hack" type, nobody's proposing such a thing.

TinTower
Apr 21, 2010

You don't have to 8e a good person to 8e a hero.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

A ban on strong encryption would make almost every computer and phone sold this century illegal, and outside of a few fevered EFF types and the occasional "New technology baffles pissed old hack" type, nobody's proposing such a thing.

We're talking about Theresa May here. She's itching for an excuse to do it (even if it would get struck down by Article 8) because TERRORISM.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Given all the various nude picture leaks have come from grabbing the pictures at rest rather than in transit, mostly through really bone-headed security mistakes on the part of the users or companies, all the crypto in the world wouldn't have helped.

There are messaging apps that are - to all intents and purposes - immune to interception. Nobody uses them because they're fiddly to set up and use, and always will be because good security measures are more or less completely antithetical to good usability - and even then you've still got to deal with the endpoints of the communications. In fact, all of the popular messaging applications in use offer, if you'll excuse the phrase, pretty good privacy.
There are still a lot of popular messaging apps that don't protect content from the messaging service provider itself, don't perform any kind of hard verification on the recipient, and don't provide much in the way of forward secrecy or stolen key revocation though:
https://www.eff.org/secure-messaging-scorecard

While none of that would prevent the intended recipient putting pictures sent through it onto a 'revenge porn' site or whatever, since they would have to in some form be displayed on the device, the fact that nobody else could have feasibly got hold of them would potentially make it easier to prosecute those cases.

(I know that some of the features that would make that provable are antithetical to true-OTR messaging, but you can have more than one app and use horses for courses.)

I'm sure from the inverse correlation between the popularity of the apps on that table and the score that they get you're right about them being fiddly to set up and more focused on crypto-nerd stuff than usability, but there's no hard and fast reason that has to be the case. I'm not sure how good pEp (pretty Easy privacy) is going to be, but it looks like they're looking into that route.

Cerv
Sep 14, 2004

This is a silly post with little news value.

Fat Turkey posted:

Isn't the closest station to the Palace about a mile away? If you're rich like those two, why wouldn't you just taxi it? I mean I'd quite happily walk it but it is a special occasion for them. Doesn't seem that odd to me.

St James Park is like 600m. Less than half a mile.

I didn't mean it was odd to get the cab. When you're already - like you say rich enough to be - doing that why are you watching the meter? Conversation that bad?

Acaila
Jan 2, 2011



TinTower posted:

I think Alexander's likely to survive from a SNP/Labour vote split. There'll be a lot of constituencies where three parties have between 20% and 40% of the vote, a lot of them in Scotland.

Polling at the start of the summer had the SNP taking it with 7% more than Labour. At the last Holyrood elections, Labour stood still while the SNP benefitted from the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. And then the referendum happened and the huge surge in SNP membership and Inverness going Yes while Labour have done sod all to counter that.

ThomasPaine posted:

I'd suggest SNP. Labour are in meltdown, and to be honest they deserve to be. The SNP are better at being Labour than Labour are, on a lot of issues. Voting for the SNP you get all of (probably more) benefits as you would from a Labour MP, with the added bonus of shoving it to the Westminster establishment. The quicker we get break down the two party system the better (christ, I'm even seeing UKIP successes as kind of positive in that light, if nothing else). SNP have also said they'd consider coalition with Labour to keep out the Tories.

Though I'd much prefer everyone buggered off with the whole tactical voting thing and just went for who they wanted to be in power.

"Not the Tories" is always my first choice. And the overall lack of Tories in Scotland is something I'm ridiculously proud of. So I will vote tactically if I have to, after having suffered voting for whoever I liked in one of the safest seats in the UK for the rest of my life.

But ewww SNP.... Tribalism dies hard.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

TinTower posted:

We're talking about Theresa May here. She's itching for an excuse to do it (even if it would get struck down by Article 8) because TERRORISM.

It wouldn't have anything to do with Article 8 - it would literally be impossible to unpick cryptography from the basic functionality of any modern PC, tablet, or phone.

(I wouldn't put it past them proposing it and then ranting about EUROCRATS ENDANGERING ARE BOYS, though)


Guavanaut posted:

There are still a lot of popular messaging apps that don't protect content from the messaging service provider itself, don't perform any kind of hard verification on the recipient, and don't provide much in the way of forward secrecy or stolen key revocation though:
https://www.eff.org/secure-messaging-scorecard

These are all very different problems though. Fixing the first - not protecting from the messaging service - is the really big dealbreaker for most users, because the only ways to do that break shitloads of functionality if you, for example, lose your password or want to access from multiple devices or all the other messy use cases that come up once you hit mass market. It's possible (maybe inevitable) that there is a solution to it that is universally applicable, but we live in a world where the vast majority of communication is still over SMTP, so don't expect any big changes any time soon.

Guavanaut posted:

While none of that would prevent the intended recipient putting pictures sent through it onto a 'revenge porn' site or whatever, since they would have to in some form be displayed on the device, the fact that nobody else could have feasibly got hold of them would potentially make it easier to prosecute those cases.

Snapchat was intended to do that, and the very first thing a large amount - probably the majority - of their users did was break that. Like I say, users are the killer here (I'm ignoring how fundamentally broken Snapchat was and probably still is, security-wise, although a lot of the reasons for that broken-ness are hacks to give users multi-device functionality and the like)

Guavanaut posted:

(I know that some of the features that would make that provable are antithetical to true-OTR messaging, but you can have more than one app and use horses for courses.)

I'm sure from the inverse correlation between the popularity of the apps on that table and the score that they get you're right about them being fiddly to set up and more focused on crypto-nerd stuff than usability, but there's no hard and fast reason that has to be the case. I'm not sure how good pEp (pretty Easy privacy) is going to be, but it looks like they're looking into that route.

Once you get users involved, all bets are off. The amount of people who have "monkey" as their password goes *up* every time there's a news story about how it's the most common password and never to use it.

feedmegin
Jul 30, 2008

goddamnedtwisto posted:

A ban on strong encryption would make almost every computer and phone sold this century illegal, and outside of a few fevered EFF types and the occasional "New technology baffles pissed old hack" type, nobody's proposing such a thing.

EFF types? I imagine they're highly in favour of strong encryption. They funded the PGP guy's defence back in the 90s when he was being prosecuted as an 'arms trafficker' -

http://w2.eff.org/legal/cases/PGP_Zimmermann/eff_pgp_defense.announce

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

feedmegin posted:

EFF types? I imagine they're highly in favour of strong encryption. They funded the PGP guy's defence back in the 90s when he was being prosecuted as an 'arms trafficker' -

http://w2.eff.org/legal/cases/PGP_Zimmermann/eff_pgp_defense.announce

I know, but they're the ones who - having, to their credit, succesfully fought the dumb Clipper Chip idea and eventually prevailed over the ITAR restrictions on strong crypto export, like to pretend that The Man is going to ban anything stronger than ROT13 any day now.

Renaissance Robot
Oct 10, 2010

Bite my furry metal ass

goddamnedtwisto posted:

It wouldn't have anything to do with Article 8 - it would literally be impossible to unpick cryptography from the basic functionality of any modern PC, tablet, or phone.

(I wouldn't put it past them proposing it and then ranting about EUROCRATS ENDANGERING ARE BOYS, though)

The first and hitherto most British use of computing was for undoing encryption, suck it commies and/or Bosch :britain:

ThomasPaine
Feb 4, 2009

We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.

Acaila posted:

Polling at the start of the summer had the SNP taking it with 7% more than Labour. At the last Holyrood elections, Labour stood still while the SNP benefitted from the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. And then the referendum happened and the huge surge in SNP membership and Inverness going Yes while Labour have done sod all to counter that.


"Not the Tories" is always my first choice. And the overall lack of Tories in Scotland is something I'm ridiculously proud of. So I will vote tactically if I have to, after having suffered voting for whoever I liked in one of the safest seats in the UK for the rest of my life.

But ewww SNP.... Tribalism dies hard.

Given Labour's recent Scottish meltdown and the LibDem's UK wide one, I think 2015 is going to be a clusterfuck of an election which presents a hell of an opportunity for smaller parties to make gains.

Take my constituency, Glasgow North:

2010:
Labour: 13,181
LibDem: 9,283
SNP: 3,530
Tory: 2,039
Green: 947
BNP: 296
TUSC: 287

2005:
Labour: 11,001
LibDem: 7,663
SNP: 3,614
Tory: 2,441
Green: 2,135
SSP: 1,067


So, between the last two elections Labour support increased slightly and remained dominant, LibDem increased moderately to gain a respectable second place, SNP stayed consistent in a distant third, tories stayed consistent in fourth, the Green vote collapsed by half, and the SSP/TUSC (likely similar voters, since they didn't stand against each other) collapsed completely. BNP took an insignificant amount of votes.

So accounting for a higher turnout, and bearing in mind the demographics of the area (lots of students and academics around Hillhead and the surrounding areas, a substantial working class population around Maryhill, and scattered leafy well-to-do areas, all in a city that was broadly pro-independence) this is what I think is going to happen:

In 2010, the LibDems, in full Cleggmania mode, won over a lot of Green and SSP voters who tactically reasoned that they had a chance, probably with quite a few new voters. Together they pushed them up to a respectable position but didn't do enough to win.

So I'm assuming, with LibDem meltdown, those voters will abandon the party. The Greens will almost certainly gain from this, reclaiming their old voters and gaining a bunch of ex-LibDem faithfuls along with some old disillusioned Labourites and newly politicised people in the wake of the indy referendum. The SSP might gain in much the same way, but probably not to quite the same level as their full on Red Star Socialism schtick scares a lot of moderates off. Simultaneously, Labour is also in meltdown. They'll retain a significant number of the blindly faithful, but the SNP are going to eat up a fuckton of their votes in the working class areas. As I've already said, a significant number of angry Labourites are going to go variously to the SSP and the Greens as well.

I'm predicting that both Labour and the LibDems are going to be punished hard. I don't think the Tory vote will change significantly given how toxic they and UKIP are as a whole in Scotland. UKIP might take a few votes from them (and maybe some from Labourites who've fallen for the crap, come to think of it) but neither are going to be significant forces. The SNP stands to gain a lot from the Labour collapse, but they're starting from a very weak position and the less nationalistic Yes types tend to avoid them. LibDem support was previously substantially higher than SNP support, so, given the demographics of the area and the fact that the Greens are proving attractive to ex-Libdems, I'd suggest that the Greens stand to receive the lion's share of this large pot. Additionally, they also stand to gain from the left wing of the Labour party, especially those who are broadly anti-independence (while the Greens were for it, it's not the primary focus as it tends to be with the SNP).

So with all that, this is what I predict for 2015 based on similar turnout. I expect a prize if I'm reasonably close:

2015:
SNP: 9000
Green: 7000
Labour: 5500
Tory: 2500
LibDem: 2000
SSP: 1500

Bear in mind that I haven't taken new voters into account here, and after the indy ref there will be plenty. This will likely increase the SNP's majority even further, but will probably push few more votes into the Green/SSP pots too.

So, looking at that, I do think the SNP will probably win, but the LibDems have a huge pool of previous support the Greens can bleed. If the wind blows the right way and they campaign hard enough, it's not outside the realm of possibility that they could challenge the SNP for the top spot. Which is why I, as a Green voter, hate the idea of tactical voting.

Obviously that analysis is based purely on my own constituency, which is affected by its demographics, past voting record, and Scottish context. Labour won't collapse in England, so Labour safe seats there are unlikely to be affected. UKIP could easily cut into Tory majorities though, and the Greens could do very well out of old LibDem holds. This is all a positive development (even UKIP in some respects), because successful small parties and the breakdown of the two (/three) party system just add to the likelihood of PR being discussed seriously. FPTP going to look increasingly ridiculous when something like 20% of the country are just completely unrepresented.

e: Christ, that was long. Apologies.
TLDR: The 2015 GE has a lot of scope to upset the status quo for a variety of reasons. If you're ever going to vote for what you actually believe, now's the time to do it.

ThomasPaine fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Nov 25, 2014

Acaila
Jan 2, 2011



I definitely don't think the Greens are going to win anything in Scotland in the General or come as close to it as you would suggest. The SNP have overwhelmingly been the beneficiaries of the membership increase too.

Have just been having a little root around on Electoral Calculus to see where they were predicting Tory gains and they've updated since then, but even though I find the site's predictions a little questionable, the collapse they are suggesting in the Labour vote is really quite remarkable. Like, that they would be suffering worse than the Lib Dems in the Highlands and they're predicting the Lib Dems will lose all three of those seats.

ThomasPaine
Feb 4, 2009

We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.

Acaila posted:

I definitely don't think the Greens are going to win anything in Scotland in the General or come as close to it as you would suggest. The SNP have overwhelmingly been the beneficiaries of the membership increase too.

Have just been having a little root around on Electoral Calculus to see where they were predicting Tory gains and they've updated since then, but even though I find the site's predictions a little questionable, the collapse they are suggesting in the Labour vote is really quite remarkable. Like, that they would be suffering worse than the Lib Dems in the Highlands and they're predicting the Lib Dems will lose all three of those seats.

Yeah, I'm probably biased towards the Greens. That said, I think previously heavy LibDem support and previously lacking SNP support in my specific constituency will be very good for them. They probably won't gain the top spot despite that. I still think they're worth an outside bet though. The SNP are the ones about to take Scotland by storm.

Plasmafountain
Jun 17, 2008

So, goons, how is Coventry these days? I'm going up there to raid the coventry archives for info on really old jet engines for a university assignment, but if theres something really good to see I'll shoehorn that into my trip as well.

Pistol_Pete
Sep 15, 2007

Oven Wrangler
I don't have much time for Simon Jenkins but he was spot on when he said that something happens to Home Secretaries in office and they always end up going crazy-authoritarian. I suppose they get terrified that the Big Terrorist Attack'll happen on their watch and they'll get the blame for not having done More to Prevent It.

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Breath Ray
Nov 19, 2010

Zero Gravitas posted:

So, goons, how is Coventry these days? I'm going up there to raid the coventry archives for info on really old jet engines for a university assignment, but if theres something really good to see I'll shoehorn that into my trip as well.

Looking at old rockets eh? You wouldn't be planning some kind of leftish atrocity would ya

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