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LemonDrizzle I admire your tenacity but the global trend in house prices and some specific country anecdotes on interest rates and house prices tells us nothing about whether Canada's bubble can be sustained for an appreciable period of time. Your evidence is tenuous and you're ignoring a ton of other factors. You're also ignoring the fact that that graph hockey sticks up through the 2000s, far above any trend that can be explained by the factors in the study, and not coincidentally at the same time that real interest rates fell to zero while governments turned to policies to fuel real estate as a replacement for other (fundamentally meaningful) sources of economic growth. There's evidence there's fundamental and sustainable rise in real prices, at least in some jurisdictions, over the last half century. But if you think the current bubble in Canada isn't largely driven by lax lending and negligible interest rates and/or that Canadian's debt loads could be maintained through an economic shock or recession, I have some tulip bulbs to sell you. The likelihood of such a shock is rapidly increasing as Chinese economic growth slows, resource prices drop, and personal debt loads continue to break record highs.
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Dec 2, 2014 03:22
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There's also no such thing as a eternal bubble, sooner or later you get a big crash.
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Dec 2, 2014 03:27
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etalian posted:There's also no such thing as a eternal bubble, sooner or later you get a big crash. I mean there's genuine economic growth but that's a no-true-scottsman with "bubble".
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Dec 2, 2014 04:11
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/aboriginal/aboriginal-gravesites-halt-40m-development-plan-in-abbotsford-1.2852924quote:A B.C. developer is calling on the province to fix gaps in heritage conservation laws, after the City of Abbotsford recently rejected his bid to build a farm equipment dealership on a property believed to be the site of aboriginal mass graves. lol like this motherfucker didn't buy the land knowing it was an indian burial ground. Just another loving rear end in a top hat who thinks he's going to blaze a trail in forcing city planning dept. to bend at their will. quote:Corpus proceeded to apply for municipal rezoning. But the project went belly up this month, when Abbotsford council rejected the bid, citing the First Nation's cultural concerns as a key factor in its decision. also, lol at "$40-million residential and industrial project". MIXED USE gently caress FACES
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Dec 2, 2014 08:28
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Holy loving poo poo why won't this loving meme die http://thetyee.ca/News/2014/11/27/Afford-Rent-Could-Be-Homeowner/ quote:"I'm sure not a big fan of saying housing should be owned by the state or society," said Vancouver developer and communications specialist Bob Ransford in a phone interview. "Ninety-eight per cent of our housing has been built by the private sector." Ransford is a loving shill for the development industry and a twit extraordinaire trying to force Richmond council to change zoning in a strip of land that was developed by Onni, knowing full well they were in violation.
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Dec 2, 2014 08:33
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Mexplosivo posted:I mean this should make it clear, unless you're getting an econ degree of course :V Hey, I've only been studying economy 3/4 of a semester and I'm not totally brainwashed yet!   It really is astonishing how mind-boggingly simplified the entry-level stuff is. Things like the rule-of-one-price which assumes that everyone in an economy is a rational actor and that entities in the market would never act contrary to their own interests and... It's only funny before you start seeing how much of economic research before the 2008 crash that was taking these assumptions for granted, then it becomes loving terrifying. 
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Dec 2, 2014 08:36
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The Emperor has no clothes.
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Dec 2, 2014 08:37
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:I had no idea that was the situation with such basic things as word definitions even among economists. This is really stupid. :/ Ireland: -49% (-44%) USA: -43% (-32%) Spain: -38% (-38%; bottom not yet reached) Denmark: -29% (-27%) Netherlands: -26% (-26%; bottom not yet reached) Italy: -22% (-22%; bottom not yet reached) ===================================================== UK: -15% (-6%) France: -9% (-6%) Sweden: -6% (+4%) Germany/Belgium/Switzerland: NA (either no peak yet or no boom to begin with) e: for the sake of relevance to the thread's topic, Canada: -5% (+14%) I think that regardless of the way we define a crash, there are very big and important differences between the outcomes for the markets above the line and those below it. In the upper group of markets, real terms prices fell dramatically and lost all or most of the gains they made during the boom years immediately prior to the GFC. In those below the line, the price falls were much less dramatic (in some cases there was either no fall or no boom in the first place!) and real prices remain well above the pre-boom levels. So, can we agree that there are important qualitative and quantitative differences between the post-GFC market outcome in the US and that in most of Europe? I'll respond to the other posts later on, not trying to dodge other people's points. LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 12:11 on Dec 2, 2014 |
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Dec 2, 2014 12:01
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LemonDrizzle posted:Hah! Well, OK, setting aside the definition of the term "crash", I'll offer some quantitative data based on the inflation-corrected indices presented by The Economist and go from there. In real terms, the approximate peak-to-trough (and in parentheses, peak-to-present-day) swings in house prices in the US and selected European countries were: What are you even arguing dude.
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Dec 2, 2014 16:19
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The fun thing about the Netherlands is that they had Canadian/Australian-esque prices up until 2 years ago.
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Dec 2, 2014 16:28
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I wonder what the UK looks like pre and post if you subtract London.
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Dec 2, 2014 16:54
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tsa posted:What are you even arguing dude.
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Dec 2, 2014 17:09
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http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-26864880 lol loving manchester attractions include, racist homosexual folksinger, idiotic soccer fans, coal pits It's definitely different there. Also, Best Place On Earth and Everyone Wants to Live in Manchester.
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Dec 2, 2014 17:11
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How much money has Canada lost now that the price of crude has dropped? I've been reading that OPEC is purposely tanking the price of crude and that they have no intention of stopping this "war" any time soon, perhaps this will mean a rise in interest rates soon?
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Dec 2, 2014 17:57
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jet sanchEz posted:How much money has Canada lost now that the price of crude has dropped? I've been reading that OPEC is purposely tanking the price of crude and that they have no intention of stopping this "war" any time soon, perhaps this will mean a rise in interest rates soon? Not sure anyone knows yet, but some jurisdictions like Alberta (and to a lesser extent BC) have had their government revenues slashed quite significantly. Where the problem is really going to be, is that both of those provinces will react to the downturn by cutting spending with a chainsaw.
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Dec 2, 2014 18:01
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ocrumsprug posted:Where the problem is really going to be, is that both of those provinces will react to the downturn by cutting spending with a chainsaw. Which really underscores how pernicious it is to rely on oil revenues to fund government.
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Dec 2, 2014 18:40
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Lexicon posted:Which really underscores how pernicious it is to rely on oil revenues to fund government. You don't say? Russia will hit recession in 2015 because of oil and Ukraine, Kremlin admits The Russian government has for the first time acknowledged that the country will fall into recession next year, battered by the combination of Western sanctions and a plunge in the price of its oil exports. The economic development ministry on Tuesday revised its GDP forecast for 2015 from growth of 1.2 per cent to a drop of 0.8 per cent. Disposable income is expected to decline by 2.8 per cent against the previously expected 0.4 per cent growth. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-will-hit-recession-in-2015-because-of-oil-and-ukraine-kremlin-admits-1.2857186
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Dec 2, 2014 18:53
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ocrumsprug posted:Where the problem is really going to be, is that both of those provinces will react to the downturn by cutting spending with a chainsaw. Short of selling off a crown corp for pennies on the dollar, or actually killing off the needy, there's very little left to cut in the BC Budget.
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Dec 2, 2014 18:54
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Lexicon posted:I wonder what the UK looks like pre and post if you subtract London. That's a very important point, real estate numbers across whole EU countries/US states or even continent-wide are pointless. You can maybe pool together 'desirable cities', 'outskirts of those cities', 'trash cities' and 'rural'. And then you'd still have to differentiate between top-end condo, detached family house etc. sauer kraut fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Dec 2, 2014 |
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Dec 2, 2014 19:55
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Rime posted:Short of selling off a crown corp for pennies on the dollar, or actually killing off the needy, there's very little left to cut in the BC Budget. You mean like selling off social housing stocks? I think you will find that the needy will just die off, all on their own.
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Dec 2, 2014 20:23
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ocrumsprug posted:You mean like selling off social housing stocks? I considered tossing the poorest of society out on the street in the current housing climate to be effectively leveling a death sentence on many people.
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Dec 2, 2014 20:38
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ocrumsprug posted:You mean like selling off social housing stocks? There's a scary amount of people who think homeless people (unlike car traffic) is mostly induced demand. Homeless shelters and soup kitchens and such encourage homeless people by enabling them. The more we spend on "helping" the homeless the more of these lazy people are enabled to exist. If those handouts didn't exist the lazy bums would be forced to straighten themselves out. "Homeless advocates" are literally advocating for people to choose this lifestyle and for it to be easier. They're a special interest group like cyclists or environmentalist who just want a bigger piece of the pie and want to take what other people make. Also how come these homeless people get free housing while I have to pay a million for a house? Where's MY affordable housing eh government??
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Dec 2, 2014 20:44
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I literally had someone say this to me on Friday at work, after I politely asked that they stop referring to the homeless people outside (in 0-5 degree Celsius) as "the walking dead [my coworkers] want to blow away." My coworker said that "not everyone is dealing with substance abuse or mental illness, they're just lazy." gently caress Toronto. gently caress Canadians. gently caress Canada.
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Dec 2, 2014 21:02
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Baronjutter posted:There's a scary amount of people who think homeless people (unlike car traffic) is mostly induced demand. Homeless shelters and soup kitchens and such encourage homeless people by enabling them. The more we spend on "helping" the homeless the more of these lazy people are enabled to exist. If those handouts didn't exist the lazy bums would be forced to straighten themselves out. "Homeless advocates" are literally advocating for people to choose this lifestyle and for it to be easier. They're a special interest group like cyclists or environmentalist who just want a bigger piece of the pie and want to take what other people make. Also how come these homeless people get free housing while I have to pay a million for a house? Where's MY affordable housing eh government?? In a horrible, awful way, these people aren't entirely wrong. The practice of Discharge by Bus from the mental hospital is well documented. Bumfuck, North Dakota has no support for your mentally ill uncle? Fine, put him on the Greyhound to San Francisco. He won't freeze to death and they have all sorts of support there, I've heard.
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Dec 2, 2014 21:22
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melon cat fucked around with this message at 05:25 on Mar 16, 2019 |
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Dec 2, 2014 21:27
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Baronjutter posted:Yeah whenever people go on about PRIVATE SECTOR EFFICIENCY I remember all these big offices and corporations staffed to the gills with positions like that. So many redundant management jobs and so many ridiculous busy-work jobs that exist only because the current generation of management has no understanding of technology or work flow. For instance my wife's company has a policy that every time a document is sent out to a client a copy has to be retained. Made sense 20 years ago, but now it's all electronic. So that means every time she emails a document to a client she has to attach that document to a master electronic file, and if she sends that same form to 20 people? 20 individually named copies! It was worse, previously you'd have to print the file you emailed out and put it in a big folder and there was a whole filing department dedicated to basically storing printed out emails. Now they just have a big IT department and wasted management time making sure every file sent via email is re-filed somewhere else, and yes they store all the sent emails as well. For some common documents and forms they have folders with hundreds of thousands of the same document copied over and over. Because of this they are spending a fortune developing new software that will let them do this incredibly important 30 year old filing policy slightly more efficiently. Depending on what your wife does they may be legally required to store physical records for up to 50 years (HR records mostly). Sadly most IT departments and companies don't understand this which is why they often get hosed for it.
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Dec 2, 2014 21:34
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My mother was speaking to a social worker earlier, and apparently there are less than 180,000 people in BC on all forms of assistance combined. 78% of those are permanently disabled. Man, good thing we nipped that welfare queen problem in the bud!
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Dec 2, 2014 21:56
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It's amazing how angry and focused so many people are on that tiny minority of a tiny minority that might be sort of gaming the system as in maybe they aren't bootstrapping their way out of poverty hard enough but people barely bat an eyelash at all the insane corruption and waste at the top levels of society. Dude made a few extra million screwing over a municipality by over-charging on land and probably bribing some officials? Heh, smart businessman taking advantage of suckers. Corporation gaming the tax system to screw the government out of millions? Smart dude maximizing his profit. Single mom "gaming the system" to save a hundred bucks a month on living expenses to afford rent? A parasite, a criminal, the source of our social and economic ills! No amount of money is too much to investigate and punish these people to the fullest extent of the law. It's not even about saving money, it's about justice! Someone lower than me on the class system got something I don't think they deserve meanwhile I'm sitting here not having things I believe my class is entitled to like cheap home ownership. (But don't you loving dare do anything to lower housing prices! Housing prices need to always be going up but also affordable for "middle class" people like me)
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Dec 2, 2014 22:28
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Baronjutter posted:It's amazing how angry and focused so many people are on that tiny minority of a tiny minority that might be sort of gaming the system as in maybe they aren't bootstrapping their way out of poverty hard enough but people barely bat an eyelash at all the insane corruption and waste at the top levels of society. Dude made a few extra million screwing over a municipality by over-charging on land and probably bribing some officials? Heh, smart businessman taking advantage of suckers. Corporation gaming the tax system to screw the government out of millions? Smart dude maximizing his profit. Single mom "gaming the system" to save a hundred bucks a month on living expenses to afford rent? A parasite, a criminal, the source of our social and economic ills! No amount of money is too much to investigate and punish these people to the fullest extent of the law. It's not even about saving money, it's about justice! Someone lower than me on the class system got something I don't think they deserve meanwhile I'm sitting here not having things I believe my class is entitled to like cheap home ownership. (But don't you loving dare do anything to lower housing prices! Housing prices need to always be going up but also affordable for "middle class" people like me) The best part about it is how much the whole practice of not providing for the poor ends up costing anyway. Instead of providing somebody with a safe, healthy place to live for a few thousand a year, you let them get so bad that they end up in a prison cell or a hospital bed for months or years on end at a cost of hundreds of thousands.
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Dec 2, 2014 22:48
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Baronjutter posted:There's a scary amount of people who think homeless people (unlike car traffic) is mostly induced demand. Homeless shelters and soup kitchens and such encourage homeless people by enabling them. The more we spend on "helping" the homeless the more of these lazy people are enabled to exist. If those handouts didn't exist the lazy bums would be forced to straighten themselves out. "Homeless advocates" are literally advocating for people to choose this lifestyle and for it to be easier. They're a special interest group like cyclists or environmentalist who just want a bigger piece of the pie and want to take what other people make. Also how come these homeless people get free housing while I have to pay a million for a house? Where's MY affordable housing eh government?? Yeah unfortunately my wife has some ex-coworker friends that hold these exact views. She does not let me hang out with them since she doesn't want me to tell her friends that they are "scum" to their faces.
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Dec 2, 2014 22:58
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-26864880 Aslo similar to Canada the UK decided a US style speculative real estate system would be healthy for the economy instead of more public housing.
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Dec 3, 2014 00:39
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Lead out in cuffs posted:The best part about it is how much the whole practice of not providing for the poor ends up costing anyway. Instead of providing somebody with a safe, healthy place to live for a few thousand a year, you let them get so bad that they end up in a prison cell or a hospital bed for months or years on end at a cost of hundreds of thousands. The great thing about Alberta is that, if you're disabled (but not permanently so) then you are allocated $326/month as a shelter allowance. The average rent in Edmonton is about $950 for a one-bedroom. We have a math problem here.
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Dec 3, 2014 06:00
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how much would it cost to microhouse crackheads in a warehouse outside of airdrie yeah that's right
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Dec 3, 2014 06:11
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Albino Squirrel posted:The great thing about Alberta is that, if you're disabled (but not permanently so) then you are allocated $326/month as a shelter allowance. The average rent in Edmonton is about $950 for a one-bedroom. We have a math problem here. This explains why all the people I knew on AISH were living in apartments together while attempting to hold down jobs (or dealt drugs) to make ends meet.
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Dec 3, 2014 06:20
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Albino Squirrel posted:I work for a program that houses the severely mentally ill. We're expensive because we have a high staff-to-client ratio, and because we have a family doctor and a psychiatrist. Despite this, in our first two years we saved our entire budget and then some, just in hospital admission costs. Of course, trying to get the government to fund more of this type of program has been like pulling teeth... The biggest disconnect I have with so called fiscal conservatives is that for all their hemming and hawing about spending more on taxes they don't understand simple concepts such the above and cost avoidance. I can only assume one of two things either that they know and don't care thus are dicks or they don't know and thus they are stupid. Maybe its a bunch of business men going into politics and only focusing on small picture "kitchen table" budgeting?
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Dec 3, 2014 06:21
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Let's not mince words here. "pro business", "small business", "entrepreneur" are just dog whistles for assholes who don't give a poo poo about anyone else
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Dec 3, 2014 06:24
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Blade_of_tyshalle posted:This explains why all the people I knew on AISH were living in apartments together while attempting to hold down jobs (or dealt drugs) to make ends meet. My favourite thing about the shelter allowance is that, should you be homeless or living in a shelter, you don't get the allowance. Because you're not paying rent, you see, so clearly you don't need that money. 
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Dec 3, 2014 07:49
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Albino Squirrel posted:My favourite thing about the shelter allowance is that, should you be homeless or living in a shelter, you don't get the allowance. Because you're not paying rent, you see, so clearly you don't need that money. Let me tell you, that fact sure was fun when I was trying to move up from living in a car. I mean, that also doesn't count as a shelter, obviously, and you had better believe the odds of you say, getting that shelter amount to help actually get INTO a place is roughly zero. I mean, have you considered being extremely lucky? Because that will get you a lot farther than anything else you can think of. 
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Dec 3, 2014 09:14
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Whiteycar posted:The biggest disconnect I have with so called fiscal conservatives is that for all their hemming and hawing about spending more on taxes they don't understand simple concepts such the above and cost avoidance. Thankfully, I haven't seen this as much in Canada, but Republicans frequently do that thing where they drop eight zeroes from government budget numbers and then says "you wouldn't run your family budget this way, would you?" Proof that either they're idiots or they're relying on enough voters to be idiots. 
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Dec 3, 2014 13:41
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yeah it's been a long time since "fiscal conservatism" has had anything to do with sensibly cutting public spending. 9 years of Harper and we're solidly in "gently caress poors" territory with the national consciousness to match.Baronjutter posted:Dude made a few extra million screwing over a municipality by over-charging on land and probably bribing some officials? Heh, smart businessman taking advantage of suckers. Corporation gaming the tax system to screw the government out of millions? Smart dude maximizing his profit. Single mom "gaming the system" to save a hundred bucks a month on living expenses to afford rent? A parasite, a criminal, the source of our social and economic ills! No amount of money is too much to investigate and punish these people to the fullest extent of the law. It's not even about saving money, it's about justice! Someone lower than me on the class system got something I don't think they deserve meanwhile I'm sitting here not having things I believe my class is entitled to like cheap home ownership. (But don't you loving dare do anything to lower housing prices! Housing prices need to always be going up but also affordable for "middle class" people like me) oh look, it's christmasdinner.txt 
peter banana fucked around with this message at 15:09 on Dec 3, 2014 |
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Dec 3, 2014 15:00
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