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Oh A Pale Horse, don't you know the boy waking up is a miracle, and not a feat of modern medicine?
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Dec 4, 2014 19:40
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kalstrams posted:Microsoft Russia has started to send letters to Crimean enterprises that corporate licences purchased in Ukraine can not be used in Russia. Source. That's a good news  Crimea is Russian territory. Even Microsoft understand it.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BY1dEbXWwJc TeodorMorozov fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Dec 4, 2014 |
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Dec 4, 2014 19:45
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Blowdryer posted:http://www.salon.com/2014/12/04/new_york_times_propagandists_exposed_finally_the_truth_about_ukraine_and_putin_emerges/ I really question the logic chain from both this guy and Mearschiemer. A. Admission by Kissinger that the West's reaction to Russia's actions in Ukraine provoked Russia further doesn't seem just. Of course there would have been a reaction, doesn't absolve Putin from further escalation. B. Mearschiemer's harping of neorealism ignores too many details to be valid. Essentially all boiling down to "of course Russia would secret back an insurgency in Ukraine and take over the country piece by piece, what did you expect? Seems kind of disingenuous to absolve states from the responsibility of their own actions.
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Dec 4, 2014 19:46
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Blowdryer posted:http://www.salon.com/2014/12/04/new_york_times_propagandists_exposed_finally_the_truth_about_ukraine_and_putin_emerges/ Salon has always had a cadre of writers within it who literally think that because things do suck in America that means that they should support people who are far worse, and regurgitate their talking points.
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Dec 4, 2014 19:49
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Niedar posted:So Microsoft recognizes Crimea as Russian territory. Wrap it up folks, Putin has won. TeodorMorozov posted:That's a good news
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Dec 4, 2014 19:50
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Everyone is wrong, Microsoft is doing this just so they can double bill for the same 2500 lovely dells running office 2010
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Dec 4, 2014 19:56
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Blowdryer posted:http://www.salon.com/2014/12/04/new_york_times_propagandists_exposed_finally_the_truth_about_ukraine_and_putin_emerges/ A slightly more meta-analysis level, the support of a writer who prefaces their editorial with such a long stream of smug horseshit as this guy acts as evidence against whatever point he's actually defending - it's like your one, conspiracy-addled uncle telling you that such-and-such is a false flag attack over thanksgiving dinner, it's a signal that the idea doesn't have the support of more articulate, higher-profile voices. I mean, holy poo poo, a public uprising driven entirely by mass action is a CIA coup but a special-forces invasion of Crimea officially denied by Moscow until suddenly welcomed into Russia is the will of the people. What a loving hack. I almost believe it was written to discredit the idea that America is behind the crisis by association. Dolash fucked around with this message at 20:01 on Dec 4, 2014 |
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Dec 4, 2014 19:58
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Mokotow posted:Oh A Pale Horse, don't you know the boy waking up is a miracle, and not a feat of modern medicine? I wasn't aware.  Blessed be Ojciec Tadeusz Rydzyk, Fronda, and the holy mohair beret army!
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Dec 4, 2014 20:19
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That's just Patrick Smith, he's been publishing the same article every month since March. Ignore him---he's long-winded and is a Russian apologist as far as a general anti-imperialist mindset from the 80s can take him. Read this instead: http://krytyka.com/en/community/blogs/left-or-russia-strange-case-foreign-pro-kremlin-radical-leftists
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Dec 4, 2014 20:27
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TeodorMorozov posted:That's a good news Eh, it's when GOOGLE shows it as Russian territory that Putin's won. (checks) Nope, not yet.
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Dec 4, 2014 21:10
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Warcabbit posted:Eh, it's when GOOGLE shows it as Russian territory that Putin's won.
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Dec 4, 2014 21:14
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  He really expects NATO to attack, huh.
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Dec 4, 2014 21:36
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Fabulous Knight posted:
So polite, till you poke them, and then we rape everything that walks. Also, I love the irony: Annexing and invading neighbors while comparing everyone else to Hitler.
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Dec 4, 2014 21:40
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Warcabbit posted:Eh, it's when GOOGLE shows it as Russian territory that Putin's won. Yep, that's it  Putin won.  Google is so slutty thing you know
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Dec 4, 2014 21:49
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Gravel Gravy posted:I really question the logic chain from both this guy and Mearschiemer. From a "short term hard realist US perespective", making stuff flare up in Ukraine (and lets face it, Nuland and her Neocon clique have been pretty important in preempting negotiated settlement, propably even without prior permission from Washington) makes sense. The USA has nothing at stake there. Russias stakes are huge (according to the Brookings institution, Russians aid, investment and subsidies since Ukraines independence are somewhere between 100 and 400 billion, add this to the cultural, strategic etc. considerations). Pre Crisis events dealt, in Poker terms, Russia a pretty crappy hand actually (having to rely on Yanukovich mostly), and also reduced the EUs ability to act independently of the USA. Basically, Russia has unluckily bad cards but a huge investment in the pot. Russia was, as a matter of fact, completely aware of that. Which is why claiming that Russia started the escalation roller coaster is bullshit. Putin choose his battles pretty wisely, and that was one with the odds strongly stacked against him. So, propably also assuming the Russia is weak, Nuland made her move based on the EU association agreement. Concerning the EU association agreement, there is some complete misunderstandings of what that actually means. According to most of the EU (Germany in particular) its more of a "nice gesture to Ukraine", who would never ever be admitted into the European Union in the next 40-60 years. Short to mid-term, it would hurt Ukraine more than help it (Ukraines "pro Western" goverment still didnt sign the economic part iirc, largely because said part is economic suicide for Ukraine). For the Eastern European EU members, it was the aim to create a buffer between themselfs and Russia. For the "pro Western Ukrainians" it was an actual EU agreement with a real pathway to membership for them, and for non pro Western Ukrainians it was simply an absolutly horrible offer, and the "either us or Russia" originally imposed by the EU thing just sealed it in. For them, it wasnt about choosing between Brussels and Moscow. And actual EU joining under good conditions for Ukraine could have propably been OK with Donbass, but if they get a choice between being second in Moscow or dead last in Brüssels, they choose 2nd in Moscow. One should add that there are 3 different Ukrainian identities, one that is "Russian", one that is "not Russian" and one that is "Anti Russian". Effectivly, the west made a huge "bet" on Maidan, and then did some pretty massive support to make it "win". This included completely false promises concerning the February agreement (basically sacrificing diplomatic reputation), logistical support, political support and massive PR support. All of this btw. clearly in violation of the Budapest Memorandum, which refers to the Helsinki declaration and places a pretty big "no" on "foreign interference in internal affairs". After Yanukovich got ousted, there was another "decision point" for the west. They could have held immidiate and pretty free elections. What they actually did was to ram their wishes down the throat of the rest of Ukraine, and hold "elections" after devastating the political power of the opposition in a variety of ways, some of them being direct violence. While this cemented their power of Kiev, it greatly disincentivized the opposition in Donbass to protest politically. The fact that they "house arrested" or "jailed" existing leaders such as Kernes also created a leadership Vacuum in the East which made it really easy for outside forces to move in. Now Putin imho misstepped, and took Crimea (in concert with the wishes of a majority of Crimeans). This "saved" the black sea fleet, but it turned large portions of the "Ukraine is not Russian but also not Anti Russian" identity people against him, while also making the "Ukraine is Russian" crowd think that he had their back, and they could do what they wanted to do. Add some "adventurers" (Strelkov being the most notorious one, although Right Sector played a spoiler role similiar to Strelkov from the other side) and things quickly escalated. Putin actually did some attempts to defuse the situations (for example by asking parliament to remove his authorization to intervene in Ukraine, and by removing parts of his forces from Ukraines border while the so called ATO was under way), but at that point had little control over what was happening in Donbass, in particular he had no control over Strelkov. In addition, there was absolutly no reaction from the west concerning his overtures. Strelkov then blew up at least 2 Russian attempts to reach a negotiated solution, and also made the Russians look like oathbreakers. This increased the unity of the rest of Ukraine against Russia, and the "ATO" made some gains. Eventually, Russia had a choice, allow the defeat of the "pro Russians" in Donbass, and then have nothing at all to negotiate a post crisis settlement with, or step in, achieve actual control over the "pro Russians", and begin a measure of reconcilliation with the "Ukraine is not Russia but also not Anti Russian" faction by getting rid of the "adventurers". They also had 2 other choices available, conquer "Novorussija" and "effect direct military regime change in Kiev by a full invasion". Both of these choices were militarily possible (and were what the west did in similiar situations), and Russia did not opt to choose them. Which is basically what they did since then. Strelkov was removed from command, his oligarch sugar daddy was jailed on tax charges, and people from Donbass got the DPR/LPR leadership positions. The easiest way for Putin to potentially defuse the whole crisis would have been earlier. After getting the quite horrible EU agreement, Yanukovich tried to use this agreement as leverage in order to get a better deal from Putin. Putin got pissed at that transparent bluff, thought Yanuk was full of it, and instead put out some sanctions on Yanukovich to show him he means business. Yanuk freaked out, moved against people Russia could deal with instead of him (also creating a vacuum in the process), and temporarily placed himself as the "great resister". This isolated Yanuk, the sanction had some fallout with the general Ukrainian population, and the reigning media conglomerates in Ukraine all had reasons to not talk about the pretty horrible economic effects of EU association. The "Westerners" of course didnt say a thing about the costs of EU association, and Yanuks media didnt say much either, because at that time Yanuk was trying to bluff Putin with threatening to sign the agreement, while neutral Oligarchs followed a wait and see approach. Had Putin, at that time, offered to straight up pay Yanuks price (while working behind his back to get rid of him, he was a huge liability with scant redeeming features), he may have successfully preempted the crisis. Would have been a lot cheaper then the costs the crisis imposed on Russia for certain. Once the west pushed the "back the opposition in an regime change attempt button", Putin first lashed out in Crimea, and then was actually quite cautious, and arguably a lot more restrained then the USA would have been in a similiar situation (Cuban missle crisis anyone?). And there was absolutly no shortage of powerfull and vocal people in Russia edging him on to be a lot more aggressive. And why this thing is pissing me off so much: If the west reduces Russia so much that they are no longer an independet player on the global chess game, Russia becomes the queen for the Chinese. This would be a pretty horrible development, and people who think that this is a good thing are either Chinese or seriously cognitivly impaired.
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Dec 4, 2014 21:50
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Meanwhile Poroshenko tries to cut off Yats by outperforming him on the puppet department. Poroshenko represents considerable economic and political power on his own person, while Yats is hugely depending on western assistance. By fishing in Yats waters, he propably hope to drive him into a corner. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-03/ukraines-truly-foreign-ministers It may also be a cunning sekrit move to make Russian propagandists unemployed, because if RT would write that Ukraine just "nationalized an American banker 1 hour before turning her into finance minister" people would regard this as some trolling attempt.
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Dec 4, 2014 21:57
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quote:Jaresko, who grew up in a Ukrainian family in Chicago, has lived in Kiev for 20 years. She started her career in Ukraine distributing U.S. government aid to small and medium-sized businesses, then co-founded a small private equity firm, Horizon Capital, which has invested $255 million in Ukrainian companies. She has a few successful exits under her belt and an untarnished reputation as a thorough and enthusiastic manager, as well as a competent financier. She has no experience of the convoluted Ukrainian budget, however, and the finance minister will have to cut spending by about 10 percent of gross domestic product within weeks, a group of international economists recently concluded. Jaresko will need to learn quickly and act decisively in an unfamiliar, antiquated bureaucratic environment with elaborate, ritualistic paper-based procedures and lots of political traps. Total foreigner, what a puppet, etc.
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Dec 4, 2014 22:09
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I wonder what the next budget is going to look like at this point, Ukraine may have a reprieve soon if Russia is forced to pull back but I still think a standard IMF formula of "fiscal consolidation" is going to be especially disastrous. I have had people tell me that the IMF has changed its ways, I guess we will see but Ukraine if anything is clearly a country that can't afford the standard prescription.
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Dec 4, 2014 22:09
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Best Friends posted:Total foreigner, what a puppet, etc. She is obviously a deep cover state department operative. Wikipedia posted:She then took several economics-related position at the US Department of State in Washington, D.C., and eventually coordinated activities of the State Department, the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, the United States Trade Representative, and Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) in their economic relations with the Soviet Union and its successors. As part of her work she interacted with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Later from 1992 to 1995, she was the first Chief of the Economic Section of the US Embassy in Ukraine, responsible for strengthening economic cooperation between the two countries. Niedar fucked around with this message at 22:42 on Dec 4, 2014 |
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Dec 4, 2014 22:39
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Ardennes posted:I have had people tell me that the IMF has changed its ways, I guess we will see but Ukraine if anything is clearly a country that can't afford the standard prescription. The IMF has changed its ways. The IMF before: "You need to embrace neoliberalism and austerity. Trust us, we know better than you." The IMF today: "You need to embrace neoliberalism and austerity. Yeah, we know it doesn't work, but we don't care."
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Dec 4, 2014 22:45
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-04/putin-says-crimea-is-russia-s-temple-mount-sacred-for-country.html This doesn't quote sound like what I heard on the news this morning, Putin basically saying 'we know who is selling the Ruble and we have ways to deal with you.' But man, with the inflation http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-04/russia-inflation-surges-to-fastest-in-three-years-as-ruble-sinks.html and GDP shrinkage, it does not look good. 54.28 rubles per dollar.
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Dec 4, 2014 22:46
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She clearly has a ton of connections to the us government so calling her a us agent or whatever does make sense. But calling her insufficiently Ukrainian is an odd choice from team "how dare you say a Russian cannot be Ukrainian."
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Dec 4, 2014 23:00
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Warcabbit posted:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-04/putin-says-crimea-is-russia-s-temple-mount-sacred-for-country.html The URL for the article: putin-says-crimea-is-russia-s-temple-mount-sacred-for-country There's no such quote in the article itself and the title is given as "Putin Vows to Punish Speculators Pushing Down Ruble’s Value". Huh. "Our army overcame the enemy, freed Europe." Someone's having fun making translations deliciously ambiguous, or is the recession so bad that they couldn't afford an "and"?
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Dec 4, 2014 23:00
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Cat Mattress posted:"Putin Vows to Punish Speculators Pushing Down Ruble’s Value". "Pretend our currency is worth more than it really is or else I will hurt you?"
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Dec 4, 2014 23:07
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Warcabbit posted:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-04/putin-says-crimea-is-russia-s-temple-mount-sacred-for-country.html Jesus, if I hadn't been kicked out of Russia earlier this year, I would've taken a 40% pay cut just off the top, before even calculating higher food prices and a substantially increased Amerikosi tax from cops. The "real story" I'm hearing is how the Moldovan Leu is getting ready to fall apart in a big, rublesque way. If ever there was a time to not invest in post-soviet states, it's now.
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Dec 4, 2014 23:11
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Smerdyakov posted:The "real story" I'm hearing is how the Moldovan Leu is getting ready to fall apart in a big, rublesque way. If ever there was a time to not invest in post-soviet states, it's now. Rublesque or Hrivnaesque? (e.g. in part due to an external threat to country's sovereignty and borders).
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Dec 4, 2014 23:18
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kalstrams posted:Google shows it as Russian for Russian, and some goes for bunch of other websites. It would be so fun to be the google maps border guy. I would troll the poo poo out of everyone by making Palestine be 1937 size, slowly move the south Korea border further north to see if anyone notices, and label Crimea and Ukraine as 'not Russia'.
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Dec 4, 2014 23:44
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Scaramouche posted:It would be so fun to be the google maps border guy. I would troll the poo poo out of everyone by making Palestine be 1937 size, slowly move the south Korea border further north to see if anyone notices, and label Crimea and Ukraine as 'not Russia'.
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Dec 4, 2014 23:47
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I like this guy's tweet: https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/540452960929865728
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Dec 4, 2014 23:48
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How can people claim with a straight face that we live in a multipolar world when people care so much about lines on google maps.
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Dec 4, 2014 23:48
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Fojar38 posted:How can people claim with a straight face that we live in a multipolar world when people care so much about lines on google maps. I dont see how that follows at all.
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Dec 4, 2014 23:59
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Cat Mattress posted:The IMF has changed its ways. The IMF before: Not that I agree with austerity in Ukraine but how the hell do you bail them out? Writing a blank cheque to them isn't going to work in such a corrupt country and getting them to pinky swear that they'll pay them back doesn't help either. While a fire sale of state assets isn't in their best interest either it's probably one of the few ways anyone can get money out of the Ukraine.
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Dec 5, 2014 00:11
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katlington posted:I dont see how that follows at all. It was a jab at how the people claiming that Russia is proud and unique and independent and doesn't need anyone else are placing so much value on where a line on a map is drawn by an American corporation.
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Dec 5, 2014 00:12
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Scaramouche posted:It would be so fun to be the google maps border guy. I would troll the poo poo out of everyone by making Palestine be 1937 size, slowly move the south Korea border further north to see if anyone notices, and label Crimea and Ukraine as 'not Russia'. NK would notice, they complained when a free rag in Australia put them on the medal tally as naughty Korea and SK as nice Korea. http://www.news.com.au/sport/naughty-korea-fires-a-missive-at-mx/story-fndpu6dv-1226445891807
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Dec 5, 2014 00:15
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Scapegoat posted:Not that I agree with austerity in Ukraine but how the hell do you bail them out? Writing a blank cheque to them isn't going to work in such a corrupt country and getting them to pinky swear that they'll pay them back doesn't help either. While a fire sale of state assets isn't in their best interest either it's probably one of the few ways anyone can get money out of the Ukraine. Allowing Ukraine to be the first direct Federal Subject of the EU. 
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Dec 5, 2014 00:40
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Scapegoat posted:Not that I agree with austerity in Ukraine but how the hell do you bail them out? Writing a blank cheque to them isn't going to work in such a corrupt country and getting them to pinky swear that they'll pay them back doesn't help either. While a fire sale of state assets isn't in their best interest either it's probably one of the few ways anyone can get money out of the Ukraine. It's a special case really, it's not about getting the money back from them: it's an European Security issue.
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Dec 5, 2014 00:47
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Scapegoat posted:Not that I agree with austerity in Ukraine but how the hell do you bail them out? Writing a blank cheque to them isn't going to work in such a corrupt country and getting them to pinky swear that they'll pay them back doesn't help either. While a fire sale of state assets isn't in their best interest either it's probably one of the few ways anyone can get money out of the Ukraine. The problem is that *at some point* Ukraine needs some way to float its economy while it reforms and rebuilds. One of the only things that saved Poland in the 90s was the fact that so many countries forgave its soviet-era debt. They were still bankrupt, but had some breathing room to maneuver while it privatized resources and industry. Ukraine, if it is ever going to stabilize, needs something of the same. Whether it's debt-forgiveness or cash injection I'll leave to the economists - but it has to happen. The problem right now is that with Russia lurking, it's certainly creating waves that make it hard to trust that the current government - even if they make promises of economic reform and corruption cleanup - will still be in power over the next decade to keep Ukraine on-course. You could trust Poland to tell Russia to gently caress-right-off long enough for them to fix their economy. You can't do the same with Ukraine.
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Dec 5, 2014 00:49
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Cat Mattress posted:
If he's listing things overcome by the Russian military, it seems accurate.
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Dec 5, 2014 00:53
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Well, let's see, I read the speech transcript in the original. English version here: http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/23341 The fact that instead of taking a conciliatory tone, Putin cranked up the rhetoric should not have surprised anyone. His ratings and popular support depend on being an enemy of the West. He says right in the speech: even if Russia hadn't annexed Crimea, the West would have found an excuse to harm Russia. The only reason that Russia isn't flourishing is because it's being sabotaged by the West and its admirers in Russia. Putin also motivated the annexation of Crimea by noting that the first Russian Christian prince was baptized there (just over 1000 years ago). Even for a random patriotic Russian, who can rattle off the year, month and day of the Battle of Poltava or when the Poles captured Moscow and every single other time when Russia had been wronged or attacked, this is a very obscure and poorly remembered fact. After the first third of the speech pandering to the patriotic sentiment of the lower classes, the next third is extolling the virtues of a liberal economy, which can't help but appeal to the upper-middle classes. But it also shows that the Russian leadership thinks the correct way to reform the USSR was to follow the Chinese model - single party but liberal economy. Then in the last part he boast of the ongoing improvements in social services - which can't but please the elderly, students, doctors, teachers and all other state workers. So no-one was forgotten and everyone is happy. Really, this reminds me of the following passage (translated) from a Russian sci-fi book written almost 50 years ago: quote:Maxim realized that the country's political system was far from ideal and was some type of military dictatorship. But it was clear that the All-Powerful Creators were extremely popular, and among all classes of society. Maxim could not understand the economic reasons for this popularity: half the country still lay in ruins, the military expenses were huge and the vast majority of the population was living quite meagerly... But, apparently, the military clique was able to curb the appetites of the industrialists, thereby gaining favor with the workers. And by subjugating the workers, they gained favor with the industrialists. But this was only guesswork on his part. Guy was surprised when Maxim presented the problem from this point of view, because for him society was a single organism, and he could not conceive of contradictions between social groups...
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Dec 5, 2014 01:04
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Cat Mattress posted:The URL for the article: putin-says-crimea-is-russia-s-temple-mount-sacred-for-country Here's hoping he has naval special forces torpedo some Wall Street rear end in a top hat's yacht. Do it, Putin, show the world how big a man you are. 
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Dec 5, 2014 01:15
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