sauer kraut posted:

This only works as long as prices in the boondocks or suburbs are inflated like in Canada and Australia right now.

Under normal circumstances grandma's Frankenstein fixer-upper doesn't cover a modern apartment in a desirable and safe/quiet part of a city, preferably with medical and accessibility amenities.

Cultural Imperial posted:

https://twitter.com/prudent_theta/status/541958866368729088/photo/1

Cultural Imperial posted:

https://twitter.com/prudent_theta/status/541958866368729088/photo/1

Cultural Imperial posted:

https://twitter.com/prudent_theta/status/541958866368729088/photo/1

Rime posted:

Pack it up, That's far below the cost to operate the existing projects, let alone the ones under construction. If that holds steady for six months our unemployment figures for 2015 are going to be .

Ceciltron posted:

I'm not supposed to like seeing this but goddamn does it make me excited for the future.

quote:

Canadian housing starts rose the fastest in seven months in November on gains in multiple-unit work, government figures showed.

The pace of work on new homes rose 6.5 per cent to 195,620 units at a seasonally adjusted annual pace in November, Ottawa-based Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. said Monday. Multiple-unit starts in urban areas rose 13.6 per cent to 112,583, reversing most of the prior month’s decline, and single-family starts fell 2.9 per cent to 63,760 units.

Gains in the housing market this year have been supported by low mortgage rates and falling unemployment. The Bank of Canada has said there are signs of “imbalances” in consumer finances that will moderate, and that the country will avoid a housing crash. Starts next year will slow to a pace of 185,000 units, says Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Diana Petramala.

“While interest rates are expected to remain low in 2015, the housing market will face a number of headwinds,” including higher prices and lower oil that will crimp demand in cities linked to energy production, she wrote in a research note.

Another report Monday from Statistics Canada showed that building permits rose 0.7 per cent in October as gains for industrial projects were curbed by a drop in residential work.

Residential permits fell 0.4 per cent to $4.46 billion as single-family homes were unchanged at C$2.42 billion and multiple-unit projects such as apartments and condominiums fell 0.9 per cent to $2.04 billion.

Industrial projects such as buildings for utilities and manufacturers jumped 34.4 percent to $614 million, leading a 2.4 percent rise in permits for non-residential construction to $3.07 billion.

The pace of housing starts for November almost matched economist forecasts for 195,000, the median of 14 responses to a Bloomberg News survey.

Cultural Imperial posted:

https://twitter.com/prudent_theta/status/541958866368729088/photo/1

Rick Rickshaw posted:

So, is this it? Is this when the bubble will finally pop?

PT6A posted:

You seem unusually gleeful about something that pretty much everyone in the industry recognizes as a temporary disruption. The next two to three months will likely continue to be bad, but no one I've talked to, in or out of the industry, seems particularly worried about the issue over the long term. But, by all means, continue to look at spot prices and masturbate with self-satisfaction if that's what does it for you.

PT6A posted:

You seem unusually gleeful about something that pretty much everyone in the industry recognizes as a temporary disruption. The next two to three months will likely continue to be bad, but no one I've talked to, in or out of the industry, seems particularly worried about the issue over the long term. But, by all means, continue to look at spot prices and masturbate with self-satisfaction if that's what does it for you.

Cultural Imperial posted:

see you at the food bank lineups shithead

quote:

'Lever up'
One of the world’s major credit rating agencies is ringing new alarm bells - rather loudly - about consumer debt levels and house prices in Canada.

And what that could mean for the country’s banks.

It’s not the first time Fitch Ratings has issued such warning about household debt and real estate values.

In its latest report, Fitch details how the “Canadian consumer has essentially had to lever up to keep pace with the growth in home prices,” and how values have surged in Toronto and Vancouver, in particular.

While the country’s banks are insulated via the insured mortgages of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., Fitch nonetheless warned that “two key catalysts for a potential deterioration in consumer credit are general housing affordability issues … as well as potentially elevated interest rate sensitivity of borrowers.”

The recent report by analysts Justin Fuller and Christopher Wolfe is a 2015 outlook for Canada’s banks. Its rating outlook is “stable,” while its sector outlook is “negative.”

“The key macroeconomic driver of Fitch Ratings’ outlook is the high level of consumer indebtedness in Canada, which Fitch still believes to be at unsustainable levels,” the agency said.

“This, combined with what Fitch believes to be signs of overvaluation in the Canadian housing market, particularly in areas such as Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area, begets a cautious view of consumer credit and thus the negative sector outlook.”

Still, Fitch expects a soft landing for the housing market, despite the "high and unsustainable levels" of debt.

Further, where the banks are concerned, Fitch cited their “good” earnings, their “resilient overall operating performance” over the years, their “solid balance sheets” and, again, the fact that CMHC “insulates” them.

“Given Fitch’s view of a soft landing of the Canadian housing and mortgage market, Fitch would expect a slowdown in earnings from the Canadian banks’ consumer businesses, which are the banks’ largest,” it said.

“Should the landing be somewhat harder, higher provision expense is likely to materially affect earnings performance.”

Canadian consumers are juggling $1.8-trillion in debt, almost $1.3-trillion of that in mortgages.

And this, the Bank of Canada warned just last week, is a significant threat.

PT6A posted:

You seem unusually gleeful about something that pretty much everyone in the industry recognizes as a temporary disruption. The next two to three months will likely continue to be bad, but no one I've talked to, in or out of the industry, seems particularly worried about the issue over the long term. But, by all means, continue to look at spot prices and masturbate with self-satisfaction if that's what does it for you.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Nope. See above post about housing starts, a leading indicator of the housing market.

Rime posted:

Whether or not crude recovers is dependent on so many geopolitical outliers, which are currently in heavy flux, that nobody on this green earth is capable of predicting whether or not this is a short term event.

Yeah, the people you know in the industry are going to be saying it's short-term, because you are in Alberta.

Rime posted:

Whether or not crude recovers is dependent on so many geopolitical outliers, which are currently in heavy flux, that nobody on this green earth is capable of predicting whether or not this is a short term event.

Yeah, the people you know in the industry are going to be saying it's short-term, because you are in Alberta.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Objectively speaking, my partner works in a sector of finance focusing on tar sands investment and her office is collectively making GBS threads their pants.

Rime posted:

Those types tend to ignore the non-economic driving forces behind market corrections like this, and thus make hasty decisions. This is good, it means the price goes lower and I make even more money once the market recovers.

Baronjutter posted:

I want a massive oil and housing crash followed by zero bailouts and the nationalization of both industries after a sweeping socialist election that sees the NDP as the right wing opposition and a large number of politicians, civil servants, and corporate managers behind bars.

Rime posted:

Barring Venezuela suddenly becoming a developed nation with a strong central government, and no longer running their oil operations in a decrepit shitshow fashion like Azerbaijan, oil will always recover.

Monaghan posted:

Though loving LOL if you think they'd ever go left as a result of the oil crash.

Cultural Imperial posted:

PT6A posted:

You seem unusually gleeful about something that pretty much everyone in the industry recognizes as a temporary disruption. The next two to three months will likely continue to be bad, but no one I've talked to, in or out of the industry, seems particularly worried about the issue over the long term. But, by all means, continue to look at spot prices and masturbate with self-satisfaction if that's what does it for you.

sbaldrick posted:

I"m guessing none of those people remember how hosed Alberta got in the 80's when Oil crashed (not the NEP like everyone in Alberta thinks). Burn the fucker down.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Objectively speaking, my partner works in a sector of finance focusing on tar sands investment and her office is collectively making GBS threads their pants.

Baronjutter posted:

I want a massive oil and housing crash followed by zero bailouts and the nationalization of both industries after a sweeping socialist election that sees the NDP as the right wing opposition and a large number of politicians, civil servants, and corporate managers behind bars.

Baronjutter posted:

I want a massive oil and housing crash followed by zero bailouts and the nationalization of both industries after a sweeping socialist election that sees the NDP as the right wing opposition and a large number of politicians, civil servants, and corporate managers behind bars.

melon cat posted:

I'm actually not familiar with how bad it got. Was it in any way comparable to the current oil shock?

Baronjutter posted:

I want a massive oil and housing crash followed by zero bailouts and the nationalization of both industries after a sweeping socialist election that sees the NDP as the right wing opposition and a large number of politicians, civil servants, and corporate managers behind bars.

cowofwar posted:

You can't push for nationalization until protections have been established to ensure that the next politician is not able to turn around and privatize it again after the government has sunk billions in to it.