|
Nosfereefer posted:The Putin regime is clearly in the wrong, and Americas actions past or present are irrelevant. My point is rather that cheering for the economic collapse of Russia as some kind of just dessert is hosed up. I'm not hoping for an out and out collapse. Like I said earlier in the thread my hope is that the sanctions and unfavorable economic situation hits Russia strong enough to cause Putin to reconsider his Ukrainian adventure (and all other planned or imagined European adventures) but not so strong as to lead to complete collapse and destabilization.
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:43
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 02:17 |
|
|
Lucy Heartfilia posted:I just hope Russia collapses hard enough so that they have to give back the land they stole. I would prefer it, if noone has to suffer, but at the moment I care more about Russia's acts of evil being reversed than the economic hardship of the Russian people. Yeah not going to happen. This is all bad either way. They will not give in, but nor can or should the west give in.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:44
|
|
|
The economic problems will just make Putin hold onto Ukraine even tighter. He needs some legitimacy, he needs to seem strong. Having the currency collapse and then "lose the war" against the western homonazi's. Do you want a leader who can't even destroy a small western backed junta or keep the economy functioning? If Putin leaves Ukraine now he will lose massive face and he can't afford that right now. Russians support putin for 2 main reasons. He happened to be leader at a time when many got rich of their oil and gas so they believe he saved and grew their economy, and he made them feel proud to be Russian again, that russia was strong and feared again. With the economy going into the toilet all he will have to fall back on is the whole "We are a world power, the west fears our mighty military! Russia STRONG!". Pulling out of Ukraine or stopping their support of the rebels will make russia look very weak. If anything the economic situation in Russia will make things more likely for more direct military intervention, not less. Putin needs to wrap this up, he needs a big MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banner and an official Victory. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Dec 16, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:45
|
|
|
Seriously, while Russians have to suffer from a bad economy, Ukrainians are dying in a war against Russia, Ukrainians have lost their homes and are fugitives, Ukrainians have to live under foreign oppressors. Who is worse off currently?
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:49
|
|
|
Brown Moses posted:Maybe I should just update it daily or every time it drops another 10. Eastern Europe: I'd Buy That For A Cold Winter's Night of Fireplace-Rubles Nosfereefer posted:So what grand and terrible punishment does the American public deserve for what America did to Iraq? America is digging its own grave, though. It just hasn't lied down in it yet. As has been discussed many times in the thread, a good portion of why Russia is so easy to outcast is because of how awful they've treated large portions of the world for most of a century, so that when their superpower status was revoked, all their foreign relations crimes came toppling down. The former Soviet states, ESPECIALLY the puppet states are able to laugh and isolate Russia specifically because it doesn't hold sway anymore. America's actions in Iraq were tremendously short-sighted and have long-term implications for regional stability, this is true. But it's also true that you can't honestly compare Saddam and Poroshenko. Yanukovych was ousted after he started ordering peaceful protesters murdered in the streets, probably at Moscow's suggestion, and Russia actions in Crimea and east-Ukraine haven't ended any government or leadership anywhere on the scale of Saddam's atrocities. Russia is the aggressor approving of, or allowing, human rights abuses in this instance and your comparison holds no value in the discussion. That said, when America's global hegemony ends, relations are going to be downright hostile between North and South in the Western Hemisphere.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:51
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:Seems stable at 69 ( It is unclear, you are seeing fluctuations across the day but it is ultimately a constant crisis. Baronjutter posted:The economic problems will just make Putin hold onto Ukraine even tighter. He needs some legitimacy, he needs to seem strong. Having the currency collapse and then "lose the war" against the western homonazi's. Do you want a leader who can't even destroy a small western backed junta or keep the economy functioning? If Putin leaves Ukraine now he will lose massive face and he can't afford that right now. I think it is what spurred the only adventure in the beginning and if anything now that the currency is obviously destablizing, there is at least the real possibility that Putin is going to stick to his guns (or bring more of them...) because that is his only real source of legitimacy at this point. Politically speaking if your currency is falling apart, pulling back at this point isn't going to give you many options. One thing, it is unclear is injecting the rest of the reserves at this point isn't going maybe help much because there is just sheer panic and fear at this point, it is a falling knife. As for who is suffering more, Ukrainians are obviously but if anything Russians and Ukrainians are going to be suffering side by side and at a certain point it isn't the war that is going to only causing their suffering. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Dec 16, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:52
|
|
) to the dollar for the moment. I wonder when it's going to bottom out.
|
Lucy Heartfilia posted:Seriously, while Russians have to suffer from a bad economy, Ukrainians are dying in a war against Russia, Ukrainians have lost their homes and are fugitives, Ukrainians have to live under foreign oppressors. Who is worse off currently? Who will be worse off in 5 years? Russians. Ukranians will have a decent, improving quality of life resembling Poland. Russia will resemble China for non-Han minorities.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:53
|
|
|
Lucy Heartfilia posted:Seriously, while Russians have to suffer from a bad economy, Ukrainians are dying in a war against Russia, Ukrainians have lost their homes and are fugitives, Ukrainians have to live under foreign oppressors. Who is worse off currently? The Iraqis have suffered and are currently suffering worse than the Ukrainians, as a result of a US-led invasion. Should we cheer also at the hypothetical collapse of the American economy?
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:53
|
|
|
The problem though is that a collapsing Russian economy will not fix that, but rather make the situation way likelier to get completely out of hand. If the Russian government gets really desperate they're in a position to do a lot more damage.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:53
|
|
|
Type USD to RUB into google, and keep refreshing. It bounces between 67 and 71 lol
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:54
|
|
|
Tezzor posted:The Iraqis have suffered and are currently suffering worse than the Ukrainians, as a result of a US-led invasion. Should we cheer also at the hypothetical collapse of the American economy? I would prefer it if America stops starting wars and supporting oppressive regimes everywhere.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:56
|
|
|
   All within the span of 10 seconds
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:58
|
|
|
Tezzor posted:The Iraqis have suffered and are currently suffering worse than the Ukrainians, as a result of a US-led invasion. Should we cheer also at the hypothetical collapse of the American economy? If the housing bubble had burst during the invasion of Iraq and a bunch of countries were imposing sanctions on the US further exacerbating the problem there would indeed be a fair amount of glee.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 20:58
|
|
|
Anosmoman posted:If the housing bubble had burst during the invasion of Iraq and a bunch of countries were imposing sanctions on the US further exacerbating the problem there would indeed be a fair amount of glee. Just not on this particular forum though. Anyway, Ukrainians don't really have anywhere to go either, the electricity shortages are on going, gas prices are going to go way up for people, the Hryvnia is depreciating as bad as the ruble and looks like there is going to be massive social cuts going. It is a situation where no one wins but the CIS looks like it is going back to the late 90s. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Dec 16, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:02
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Just not on this particular forum though. Well, no. This is the Eastern Europe thread.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:04
|
|
|
El Scotch posted:Well, no. This is the Eastern Europe thread. I mean forums.somethingawful.com, Americans on this forum wouldn't be light hearted if anything their lives were being effected in the same way.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:07
|
|
|
Anosmoman posted:If the housing bubble had burst during the invasion of Iraq and a bunch of countries were imposing sanctions on the US further exacerbating the problem there would indeed be a fair amount of glee. Sanctions on the US would not only fail miserably at their intended purpose, but would probably harm the sanctioning country while having no effect or even a positive effect on the US. So good luck with that. Only remaining superpower++. May not be fair, but other countries can enjoy that benefit too by simply submitting to our rule.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:08
|
|
|
ReidRansom posted:Sanctions on the US would not only fail miserably at their intended purpose, but would probably harm the sanctioning country while having little or even a positive effect on the US. So good luck with that. Only remaining superpower++. May not be fair, but other countries can enjoy that benefit too by simply submitting to our rule. Should countries only be criticized if they are weak enough to punish and collapse?
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:09
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Should countries only be criticized if they are weak enough to punish and collapse? Only weak countries collapse from criticism.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:11
|
|
|
I think both Russia and America are bad. Fascinating that this is possible, huh? Edit: Also more sanctions from the EU are about to become active.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:13
|
|
|
Vladimir Putin posted:I think maybe the smart thing is to extract concessions over Ukraine or else he'll sign it and pretty much destroy Russia. Putin is not a faithful negotiator and after Syria many people think Obama isn't either. Giving Putin a chance to say "yes we will comply" then not fits in perfectly with how both Putin and Obama have acted and hopefully Obama knows this, so might as well just not allow the option.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:15
|
|
|
StashAugustine posted:The real thing to hope for is that economic pressure forces Russia out of Ukraine. Unless a withdrawal results in rocketing oil prices (which it doesn't) I don't think it will be a sufficient incentive. As is, western sanctions are hurting Russia a little and oil market is hurting Russia a lot.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:17
|
|
|
If anything they have more incentive to double down - failure in Ukraine could signal weakness domestically. Being able to chestbeat about some adventurism is all the government has left to trumpet to the people. The upside to Russia collapsing isn't that it will make life immediately better for Ukraine. The upside is just for the neighbors of Russia that Russia isn't currently in. Russia seemed to get more and more aggressive the better they felt economically, and seems to have been testing the waters for more expansionism. This might make expansionism unaffordable in the short term. And I doubt military and espionage action in Ukraine is even costing them that much. Probably spending much less there now than they did subsidizing gas. Best Friends fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Dec 16, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:20
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Should countries only be criticized if they are weak enough to punish and collapse? No. Criticize whomever you like. Hell, it's easier and safer to criticize the US. That's another benefit of being in the right company. How a country reacts (or doesn't) to criticism will tell you how strong it really is.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:22
|
|
|
Best Friends posted:If anything they have more incentive to double down - failure in Ukraine could signal weakness domestically. Being able to chestbeat about some adventurism is all the government has left to trumpet to the people. Yeah, see Transnistria and Abchasia. Russia is a constant violent threat to all it's neighbors. A removal of this threat would help more people than just the Ukrainians.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:23
|
|
|
Tezzor posted:The Iraqis have suffered and are currently suffering worse than the Ukrainians, as a result of a US-led invasion. Should we cheer also at the hypothetical collapse of the American economy? At least a decade later America is out of Iraq and Bush is no longer in power.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:35
|
|
|
Can't Putin both get out of Ukraine AND have a local win simply by casting it in the same light with the propaganda nobody believes but everybody believes? I mean if they just pull support and let the DPR/LPR be retaken and go "Look, we've created peace and solidarity in Ukraine. A task that the West failed to do for six months! Russia strong!" it's not like Russia is 'officially' there anyway, so if they 'officially' fix the problem how does that not solve their narrative problem?
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:38
|
|
|
Damnit, where is mightypeon when you need him... I want to know how having their economy flushed right down the toilet actually benefits Russia
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:40
|
|
|
Lucy Heartfilia posted:Yeah, see Transnistria and Abchasia. Russia is a constant violent threat to all it's neighbors. A removal of this threat would help more people than just the Ukrainians. Most Abkhazia wants to remain the way it is though, it is a Russian puppet for sure, but there seems little desire for them to return to Georgia unless you think Georgia should invade it. That wouldn't be a good idea and the Georgian public doesn't want it either. Seriously, most Georgians much rather get on their lives that have their government reclaiming territory by force. It may limit Russian ambitions for expansion, but much of the former Soviet Union still heavily trades with Russia and if Russia gets pneumonia how are they going to fair? Azerbaijan is going to be hurting as well, I highly suspect that the Manat peg to the dollar is going to end up choking them.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:42
|
|
|
Tsuru posted:Damnit, where is mightypeon when you need him... I want to know how having their economy flushed right down the toilet actually benefits Russia I'm going to guess... in a long line for bread.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:44
|
|
|
Vladimir Putin posted:At least a decade later America is out of Iraq and Bush is no longer in power. So maybe Ukraine will have recovered Crimea and Donbass in 2024?
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:44
|
|
|
Tsuru posted:Damnit, where is mightypeon when you need him... I want to know how having their economy flushed right down the toilet actually benefits Russia He'll explain how this economic crash is actually just another one of Putin's trolls and how the Russians are laughing at the West's 'hysterical' reactions.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:47
|
|
|
Leopold Stotch posted:I'm going to guess... in a long line for bread.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:48
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Most Abkhazia wants to remain the way it is though... Naturally, after all that ethnic cleansing. Edit: It's funny how people claim that the people in Donetsk and Luhansk want to become part of Russia. That this is the will of the people, even though it is just the will of the people who haven't fled from there and the people who have invaded the country from Russia. Lucy Heartfilia fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Dec 16, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:49
|
|
|
Lucy Heartfilia posted:Naturally, after all that ethnic cleansing. Abkhazia, and its Black Sea energy concessions, belong to Georgia and the multinationals who find more security in working with Georgia than Russia.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:54
|
|
|
Forgall posted:He's German. This piece of poo poo can cheerlead from a position of complete safety and comfort. Oh. True. Unless nuking the fulda gap is back in vogue.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 21:55
|
|
|
So ... hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but how could I have profited from this Russian economic meltdown? Buying rubles would be self-destructive, seeing as their value is sinking by the second, and supposedly so would any russian stocks be? What financial vehicles allow one to profit from a country's economic collapse?
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 22:02
|
|
|
Leopold Stotch posted:Oh. True. Unless nuking the fulda gap is back in vogue. Every time you mention the Fulda Gap, a group of geriatric monsters living out their remaining days in The Fletcher Memorial Home for Incurable Tyrants get the weirdest boner.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 22:04
|
|
|
double nine posted:So ... hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but how could I have profited from this Russian economic meltdown? Buying rubles would be self-destructive, seeing as their value is sinking by the second, and supposedly so would any russian stocks be? What financial vehicles allow one to profit from a country's economic Elotana posted:I almost never do targeted investing but I put some money in a 3x inverse RUSS ETF a few weeks ago. It is the best $300 bet I made since that time I sat to the left of two drunk oilmen at 2/5 no-limit.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 22:04
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 02:17 |
|
|
double nine posted:So ... hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but how could I have profited from this Russian economic meltdown? Buying rubles would be self-destructive, seeing as their value is sinking by the second, and supposedly so would any russian stocks be? What financial vehicles allow one to profit from a country's economic You sell borrowed rubles and then buy them back later.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2014 22:05
|
|