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Captain_Maclaine posted:He's a two-time loser; the main reason he's as high as he is in current polling is the utter weakness of the rest of the field combined with only-other sorta-serious contended Jeb not really being in play yet. As in 2008 and 2012, the only way he gets the nomination is if there's no other slightly-less-empty suit in the room once the crazies have eaten each other alive.
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Dec 20, 2014 01:46
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Chris Christie posted:Haven't checked in in a while. Am I wrong for thinking Romney 2016 should be a done deal? He couldn't win in 2012, when he was 4 years younger, had better demographics, a weaker economy, and a much weaker Republican primary to get through (which he didn't exactly dominate). I don't see him having any shot at winning, let alone being "a done deal".
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Dec 20, 2014 02:11
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It's all name recognition. After one of Romney's aides swore at reporters at a Polish military cemetery, Romney went up in the polls among Poles because the incident was great for his name recognition.
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Dec 20, 2014 02:13
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Joementum posted:Carly Fiorina is hiring a political director and a communications director for a Presidential campaign. Joementum posted:http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/hillary-clinton-cuba-113661.html They'll probably settle on pro-embargo since: 1. That's what the old white guys in the Republican base want 2. It's sticking with the current strategy of appealing to old-guard Florida Cubans 3. It's a way to oppose to Hillary's anti-embargo position 4. Cuba is  COMMUNIST, and the Cold War totally isn't over!
fade5 fucked around with this message at 02:58 on Dec 20, 2014 |
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Dec 20, 2014 02:41
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fade5 posted:I'm sorry, but thanks to her last name I keep thinking Carly Fiorina is some sort of awesome Pegasus Knight in Fire Emblem. (The Pegasus Knights in FE7 are named Florina, Fiora, and Farina, and they are all insanely good.) This has the side effect of making Carly Fiorina seem much more awesome to me than she actually is. The only GOP personality I see that would ever take a anti-embargo side would be Rand Paul or the like, and for Rand in particular I doubt this is the hill he'll choose to die on, considering his utter lack of principles besides.
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Dec 20, 2014 03:17
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Juvenalian.Satyr posted:The only GOP personality I see that would ever take a anti-embargo side would be Rand Paul or the like, and for Rand in particular I doubt this is the hill he'll choose to die on, considering his utter lack of principles besides. Well you're in luck! Rand is already using the Cuba angle as a way to attack Rubio as "an isolationist." Still chuckling about that, myself.
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Dec 20, 2014 03:19
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Captain_Maclaine posted:Well you're in luck! Rand is already using the Cuba angle as a way to attack Rubio as "an isolationist." Christmas came early, thanks Rand. (ahahaha dear god) Anything that rocks that already rickety boat is fine by me.
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Dec 20, 2014 03:21
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One thing I just noticed about Rand's comments. In the isolationsim line, he says, "Senator Rubio is acting like an isolationist who wants to retreat to our borders and perhaps build a moat. I reject this isolationism." I'm pretty sure we would not need to build a moat on the US border with Cuba.
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Dec 20, 2014 04:13
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fade5 posted:I'm sorry, but thanks to her last name I keep thinking Carly Fiorina is some sort of awesome Pegasus Knight in Fire Emblem. (The Pegasus Knights in FE7 are named Florina, Fiora, and Farina, and they are all insanely good.) This has the side effect of making Carly Fiorina seem much more awesome to me than she actually is. My prognostication is that by the time the race begins in earnest the embargo isn't going to matter in the least. The only people who care about the embargo are old Cubans and the handful of hardcore Cold Warriors left alive who still worship at the alter of Kennan and throw salt over their shoulder to ward off the specter of the Red Menace. In the short term the Republicans are going to instinctively go with the Obama bad position of pro-embargo, but that will fall to the overwhelming apathy about the issue from the rest of America.
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Dec 20, 2014 05:00
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Juvenalian.Satyr posted:The only GOP personality I see that would ever take a anti-embargo side would be Rand Paul or the like, and for Rand in particular I doubt this is the hill he'll choose to die on, considering his utter lack of principles besides. Actually, much of the business wing of the party is anti-embargo. I know that Paul Ryan has opposed it in the past but he hasn't tweeted since Monday. I'm sure that some Republicans who otherwise supported ending the embargo will be against it just because it's Obama pushing for it, though.
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Dec 20, 2014 14:39
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The Monkey Man posted:Actually, much of the business wing of the party is anti-embargo. I know that Paul Ryan has opposed it in the past but he hasn't tweeted since Monday. I'm sure that some Republicans who otherwise supported ending the embargo will be against it just because it's Obama pushing for it, though. If you're anti-embargo as a Republican you still have the out of saying Obama should have gotten more from Cuba in the negotiations.
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Dec 20, 2014 18:09
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The Monkey Man posted:Actually, much of the business wing of the party is anti-embargo. I know that Paul Ryan has opposed it in the past but he hasn't tweeted since Monday. I'm sure that some Republicans who otherwise supported ending the embargo will be against it just because it's Obama pushing for it, though. That's what I mean, yeah. Even if in principle they would have supported it previously, much like with ACA, it doesn't make the cold political sense considering where the party has positioned itself and defined itself by opposition to Democratic and more specifically Obama Administration policy.
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Dec 20, 2014 18:30
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Chamale posted:It's all name recognition. After one of Romney's aides swore at reporters at a Polish military cemetery, Romney went up in the polls among Poles because the incident was great for his name recognition. Who's getting polls for a US presidential election done in Poland??
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Dec 20, 2014 23:00
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Okonner posted:Who's getting polls for a US presidential election done in Poland?? Apparently the Romney campaign. (It was probably a local newspaper, they do "who do you like for US President in other countries as filler columns; you never see that in the US though, no one here has an opinion on Tony Abbott or David Cameron or the like)
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Dec 20, 2014 23:50
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fade5 posted:I'm sorry, but thanks to her last name I keep thinking Carly Fiorina is some sort of awesome Pegasus Knight in Fire Emblem. (The Pegasus Knights in FE7 are named Florina, Fiora, and Farina, and they are all insanely good.) Yeah, but they can be real pains to level up. Totally worth the effort, though.
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Dec 20, 2014 23:55
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Joementum posted:One thing I just noticed about Rand's comments. In the isolationsim line, he says, "Senator Rubio is acting like an isolationist who wants to retreat to our borders and perhaps build a moat. I reject this isolationism." We need to build a floating wall in the moat.
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Dec 20, 2014 23:55
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Wabbit posted:We need to build a floating wall in the moat. The Byzantines had a good way of dealing with this.
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Dec 21, 2014 00:00
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Huh, so that's where GRRM got the idea
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Dec 21, 2014 01:12
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Fried Chicken posted:Huh, so that's where GRRM got the idea It was pretty common for naval powers to have one. Carthage's was probably the most famous but really they survived as a viable defense in some form right up to World War II.
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Dec 21, 2014 01:16
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There are still leftover installations for stuff like around the Panama Canal lock structures and dams, from when they thought that it would be the next target for the Japanese after Pearl Harbor. There were apparently chains and nets of some kind that were supposed to stop torpedoes dropped in Gatun Lake.
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Dec 21, 2014 01:21
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Fried Chicken posted:Huh, so that's where GRRM got the idea Yeah, there's a naval battle with the Kievan Rus that's pretty much just like the battle of blackwater, right down to the sacrificial hulk filled with Greek fire.
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Dec 21, 2014 01:32
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Cliff Racer posted:It was pretty common for naval powers to have one. Carthage's was probably the most famous but really they survived as a viable defense in some form right up to World War II. In fact, the chain at West Point is involved in the story of Benedict Arnold.
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Dec 21, 2014 02:55
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On the question of foreign polls of the popularity of leaders, doesn't that kind of backfire? I mean, there was some European poll about McCain/Obama and it came out 10/90. Only I can see the GOP spinning that as "foreign popularity = weak president" etc. I remember when Blair and Thatcher were at their least popular in the UK and Europe and the US were rating them as their favourite foreign leaders. To which, the British response was "if you like them so much, you can take them". That isn't quite the point discussed above but I wonder if you know whether these foreign polls have anything but a negative impact. (By "impact", I mean absolutely no effect at all except as talk-radio fodder.)
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Dec 23, 2014 11:08
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Joementum posted:One thing I just noticed about Rand's comments. In the isolationsim line, he says, "Senator Rubio is acting like an isolationist who wants to retreat to our borders and perhaps build a moat. I reject this isolationism." Maybe he wants to build one around Miami.
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Dec 30, 2014 20:25
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Marco Rubio isn't going to let a thing like Jeb Bush slow him down.quote:"As far as, you know, speculating about whether two people from the same state can run, it's not unprecedented. We certainly know a lot of the same people, we also know some different people," Rubio told NPR's Morning Edition in an interview that aired Thursday. "The decision I have to make is: Where is the best place for me to serve America to carry out this agenda that I have to restore the American dream given the dramatic economic changes we've had in the 21st century? Where is the best place for me to achieve that? Is it in the Republican majority in the Senate or is it as a candidate, and ultimately as president of the United States? If I decide it's as president, then that's what I'm going to do irrespective of who else might be running." Meanwhile, Jeb is actually running and has quit all of the boards on which he was a member.
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Jan 1, 2015 18:08
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Sir Tonk posted:Maybe he wants to build one around Miami. He could wait ten years and save the Corps of Engineers the work.
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Jan 1, 2015 20:49
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FlamingLiberal posted:Jeb is going to get destroyed in the primaries trying to move to the right on things like immigration and education. The Beltway Village has a hard-on for Jeb for the same reason they did for Huntsman: they love the idea of a "tough-talking" neoliberal shill who will lecture the party's grassroots on social issues. But it really is stupendously hard to get nominated when your position on major issues is so far outside your party base's mainstream. Jeb's going to almost certain have more money and momentum behind him than Huntsman did, since the loyal bushies from his brother's administration are lining up in support of him, but unless his wing of the establishment has the strength to beat down the tea partiers and prevent the sort of rollicking primary where he'll get torn apart by purity tests, I don't see how he avoids flaming out just like Huntsman(and Giuliani, for somewhat similar reasons) did.
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Jan 2, 2015 03:02
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FlamingLiberal posted:Jeb is going to get destroyed in the primaries trying to move to the right on things like immigration and education. I think Jeb's team will have learned the necessary lessons from Romney '12 and will stay moderate on the things Jeb is moderate on. He's moderate on fewer things than Huntsman, Christie or Giuliani in the first place (even if they're pretty big hot-buttons) and still comfortably to the right of any Hillary on any of those. Ultimately I think being a relative moderate in a couple of areas will be less of an issue for him than aesthetics, demeanor, name-recognition and challenges from other moderates (Walker?) with less baggage.
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Jan 2, 2015 03:16
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PupsOfWar posted:I think Jeb's team will have learned the necessary lessons from Romney '12 and will stay moderate on the things Jeb is moderate on. He won't be on immigration and there's a decent chance he takes the bait on Cuba like Rubio did.
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Jan 2, 2015 03:23
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PupsOfWar posted:I think Jeb's team will have learned the necessary lessons from Romney '12 and will stay moderate on the things Jeb is moderate on. There aren't really any lessons to take from Romeny 2012 because while he indeed went too far right, there was no reason to as he was the only moderate in the race. 2016 is shaping up to have a much closer to even split between moderate, insane, and total cash grab candidates. In such a race the candidate can't afford to just be reasonable, they've got to find at least a couple issues over which to jump into the crazy pit on.
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Jan 2, 2015 04:05
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Gyges posted:There aren't really any lessons to take from Romeny 2012 because while he indeed went too far right, there was no reason to as he was the only moderate in the race. 2016 is shaping up to have a much closer to even split between moderate, insane, and total cash grab candidates. In such a race the candidate can't afford to just be reasonable, they've got to find at least a couple issues over which to jump into the crazy pit on. The 2012 primary had Romney and Tpaw and Huntsman and the ghost of Christie. Romney wasn't the only moderate in that race, far from it.
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Jan 2, 2015 04:09
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Pinterest Mom posted:The 2012 primary had Romney and Tpaw and Huntsman and the ghost of Christie. Romney wasn't the only moderate in that race, far from it. Romney was the only moderate with funding, recognition, and experience. He was the only viable moderate, no matter what Whitefish wants you to believe.
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Jan 2, 2015 04:16
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Pinterest Mom posted:The 2012 primary had Romney and Tpaw and Huntsman and the ghost of Christie. Romney wasn't the only moderate in that race, far from it. Huntsman and Tpaw were out before it really even started and the ghost of Christie was kept at bay by Santorum's blessed sweater vests. Romneny was the only moderate in the thing. Seriously, by any metric blowing your entire wad on Straw Polls and videos more exciting than you'll ever be or starting your run by speaking Mandarin means you aren't actually in the Republican race.
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Jan 2, 2015 05:14
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So what is the most likely path to the republican nomination for 2016? A moderate that goes too far right, or one of the, uh, "less-moderates" who outlasts the others? When candidates like Newt and Cain were leading in the polls last time it seemed pretty clear that the crowd was trying to do everything they could before they settled for Romney. Will the base settle for a "moderate" this time?
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Jan 2, 2015 07:22
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That's the thing, right. All the stuff about how moderate positions are death doesn't hold up to the scrutiny of the 2012 race. Romney was responsible for Romneycare, but he was the nominee despite the Massachusetts baggage. I think Jeb Bush could pull that same thing. It seems like the GOP gives a few free passes on stuff like that, in favor of the candidate with electability. ErIog fucked around with this message at 07:37 on Jan 2, 2015 |
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Jan 2, 2015 07:31
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Apollo_Creed posted:So what is the most likely path to the republican nomination for 2016? Aside from Perry, who might not even run, which of the current non-moderate candidates are even viable? They'll have to settle again, the only question is on who.
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Jan 2, 2015 08:12
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Apollo_Creed posted:So what is the most likely path to the republican nomination for 2016? The establishment is aware that they need a moderate and will throw all of their money and influence in that direction. The question is whether they will arrive at some early pseudo-consensus as to which moderate they want or whether their support will be split. Even if the ultra-conservatives can find one figure to consolidate around, there aren't enough ultra-conservative votes in the deep South and the high plains to overcome the rest of the country unless the moderate vote is deeply divided. It helps that the more fringe guys who might run are either wildly inexperienced (Cruz and Rand) or washed up (Huckabee and Santorum. Though I've heard Huckabee is considered a Rino now). PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 08:52 on Jan 2, 2015 |
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Jan 2, 2015 08:43
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Cliff Racer posted:Aside from Perry, who might not even run, which of the current non-moderate candidates are even viable? They'll have to settle again, the only question is on who. Paul approachs viability.
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Jan 2, 2015 08:53
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Fulchrum posted:Paul approachs viability. He really doesn't. He'd be lucky to crack 200 electoral votes.
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Jan 2, 2015 09:17
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PupsOfWar posted:The establishment is aware that they need a moderate and will throw all of their money and influence in that direction. Please tell me that washed up santorum was intentional.
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Jan 2, 2015 09:20
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