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Americans are only spiteful if you buy into the rhetoric of real Americans being conservative shits.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:00
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computer parts posted:Americans are only spiteful if you buy into the rhetoric of real Americans being conservative shits. They're the ones setting the political agenda and debate though.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:01
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Radbot posted:If Americans are as spiteful as they seem (are), why and how would things ever get better? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlJdPOkMa9k
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Jan 9, 2015 18:02
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zoux posted:Oh are we Arzying already? Thank you for this, I've been quietly going nuts about how Jeb has been bulldozing the right. The lesson from 2012 was that you need money for the long haul, and the lesson from 2000 is the Bush MO is to lock in a war chest early and create a narrative of inevitability, but no one else is budging. I'd rather see Ted Cruz in the big chair than another Bush. Drawing from a different wing we wouldn't see the same crew of psychopaths as last time running all the federal agencies, and Cruz is easily rolled by actual understanding of governing
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Jan 9, 2015 18:03
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zoux posted:They're the ones setting the political agenda and debate though. In some ways, yes. I think a large portion of all of this cynicism (other than the usual background droning) is that we're still about 2 months out from the 2014 elections and everyone is shell shocked. I know it won't go away though since I've been lurking or participating here since 2008.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:05
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Quidam Viator posted:poo poo man, I thought I was getting smeared as an accelerationist because I had the gall to suggest that Jebbles had a chance to win, riding on a wave of right wing assholery Because that's what it will come down to. In this climate, Bush will be easily elected with right and independents votes. The swing attitude from the dwindling middle class will be less "Democrats were awful" and more "They didn't do anything/enough to help me; might as well try these guys again."
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Jan 9, 2015 18:06
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Fried Chicken posted:Thank you for this, I've been quietly going nuts about how Jeb has been bulldozing the right. The lesson from 2012 was that you need money for the long haul, and the lesson from 2000 is the Bush MO is to lock in a war chest early and create a narrative of inevitability, but no one else is budging. I'd rather see Ted Cruz in the big chair than another Bush. Drawing from a different wing we wouldn't see the same crew of psychopaths as last time running all the federal agencies, and Cruz is easily rolled by actual understanding of governing Er my point was that people here are saying that Bush beating Clinton is inevitable but he's polling almost double digits behind her. I mean I know that it's way too early to prognosticate but there are zero indicators right now that Jeb has any sort of edge over Hillary. Also wages aren't just stagnant they're actually going down. quote:“Stagnant wages have limited household budgets and been a check on consumer spending. Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers fell 5 cents to $24.57 in December. The average workweek held steady at 34.6 hours in December.”
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Jan 9, 2015 18:06
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RuanGacho posted:What I'm saying is the Dems die on this hill or they're done, period You can't die on a hill about parliamentary procedure that has not had any real world effects yet. The Democrats can, and should, discuss how the CBO is being required to lie when the CBO scores a bill. But if you think the public will care one bit about a technical change like this without it actually being applied to something you're insane.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:08
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Oxxidation posted:Then they're done. They've been done for a while. It'd be difficult to say if they ever even started. And to act as an RSS feed for people
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Jan 9, 2015 18:09
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Radbot posted:How would American's economic welfare improve in the next 20-50 years? Well you see I've got this thing called a vanguard party....... Raskolnikov38 fucked around with this message at 18:17 on Jan 9, 2015 |
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Jan 9, 2015 18:11
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zoux posted:Oh are we Arzying already? Polls before the conventions are largely useless as predictors. Wait until Bush is officially crowned the nominee and it'll tighten to 51/49. It did for Romney in 2012.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:15
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Cheesus posted:Bush's election will be based in part on name recognition of his father and brother (and an unfortunately more favorable view of the latter), but also due to Obama's "failure" to show that he's largely not been the GWB Presidential caretaker in policy. I call it a "failure" because it's just silly and stupid that the Democratic party has been continually smeared as liberal/progressive due to conservative media labeling their biggest figurehead as the "worst Communist/Socialist this country has ever seen" or whatever. From a purely political standpoint, if there's nothing to appreciably differentiate your party from your opponent, at least publically own it for the votes. So would you agree that the past eight years have been a terrible media and publicity failure for the Democratic party? They have allowed the right to control the narrative, failed to be aggressive about pinning the GOP to government shutdowns and a complete lack of policy. So many missed opportunities, so little aggressiveness. I'm not as 100% convinced that Jeb will win as you are, but all this Obama vilification has had a very real and pervasive effect that I think a lot of people here would much rather ignore. I just don't see Hillary having the electrifying effect or the ground game that Candidate Obama pulled. By the way, for anyone who's savvy, what kind of legacy in terms of party promotion and organization is Obama bequeathing to his possible successor? I could be totally wrong, but I get the sense that Obama for America kind of shriveled on the vine, and Obama doesn't seem like he's too big on promoting his own party.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:15
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Polls before the conventions are largely useless as predictors. Wait until Bush is officially crowned the nominee and it'll tighten to 51/49. It did for Romney in 2012. Romney didn't get much of a convention bounce after the RNC, while Obama seemed to enjoy a larger one (that and 47%). It was only after Obama flubbed the first debate that it looked like it might get tight.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:17
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Polls before the conventions are largely useless as predictors. Wait until Bush is officially crowned the nominee and it'll tighten to 51/49. It did for Romney in 2012. Yes I know, I said that. I posted that to show that the only place where the conventional wisdom is "Oh no Jeb Bush is the next POTUS  "is right here in this thread.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:18
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RuanGacho posted:What I'm saying is the Dems die on this hill or they're done, period Even if they tried they couldn't win. They are the minority party and control of the CBO doesn't depend on a President's signature, so unless you expect them to filibuster the plan, it's going to happen.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:20
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computer parts posted:In some ways, yes. I assure you that my assessment of the trajectory of the American worker was not significantly impacted by one midterm election.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:22
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Quidam Viator posted:I just don't see Hillary having the electrifying effect or the ground game that Candidate Obama pulled. By the way, for anyone who's savvy, what kind of legacy in terms of party promotion and organization is Obama bequeathing to his possible successor? I could be totally wrong, but I get the sense that Obama for America kind of shriveled on the vine, and Obama doesn't seem like he's too big on promoting his own party. Obama ain't leaving jack poo poo for anybody, especially not the Clintons after what they pulled.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:24
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gradenko_2000 posted:The fact that the Civil War was fought and won, that the Civil Right Act was passed, and a black man was elected President also feeds into this narrative. Racism is a thing that happened. Look at all the things we've done to stamp it out! Everything else is just reality! The fact the south eventually won the Civil War isn't a good example to be using in your argument. HBNRW posted:If some blue collar asshat who spends most of his time watching Fox News, then why care about his opinion? Because their vote is just as powerful as yours, for starters. baw posted:Politico compiled some opinions from economists about McConnell's claim that the economy is picking up due to expectations of the incoming congress. Nearly everyone they interviewed said the statement was bullshit, with one notable exception. Guess which think tank he works for! It doesn't matter because that one guy is going to be the one making the rounds on TV and thus they will be dictating reality. zoux posted:God that is such loving bullshit, and exactly the kind of misleading superficiality that the GOP has completely dominated political dialogue with. Maybe Obama will specifically call out this hacky bullshit in the SOTU. Doubtful, but we can hope.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:25
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Romney didn't get much of a convention bounce after the RNC, while Obama seemed to enjoy a larger one (that and 47%). It was only after Obama flubbed the first debate that it looked like it might get tight. Romney didn't get a bounce in part because a hurricane and an empty chair ended up getting more press than the Republican National Convention that week (never mind the fact that the first man to ever walk on the moon had died just two days prior). The bounce post-first-debate was, at least in part, the return to the mean that should have happened immediately post-convention.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:26
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Possible running mates? Or perhaps a future Transportation Secretary.  
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Jan 9, 2015 18:26
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I don't see Bush even winning the primary. Id give him better odds in the general (assuming he got that far) than I would in the primary. He may be getting the money secured but he's entirely misreading the current gop primary voters and making the wrong moves. That and there will be too many 'moderate' choices splitting that part of the base early on and robbing him of momentum. I'd honestly give Cruz or Huckabee better odd than Bush right now.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:30
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Good Citizen posted:I don't see Bush even winning the primary. Id give him better odds in the general (assuming he got that far) than I would in the primary. He may be getting the money secured but he's entirely misreading the current gop primary voters and making the wrong moves. That and there will be too many 'moderate' choices splitting that part of the base early on and robbing him of momentum. What are you basing that on because I can find exactly one poll where Bush isn't the GOP primary frontrunner. Actually all those other guys are splitting the nutbag vote.  Cruz is particularly polling like poo poo. How is the takeaway from the last primary cycle that anything but "the moderate guy wins in the end". zoux fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Jan 9, 2015 |
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Jan 9, 2015 18:36
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Radbot posted:I assure you that my assessment of the trajectory of the American worker was not significantly impacted by one midterm election. Right, I forgot about 2010.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:40
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zoux posted:What are you basing that on because I can find exactly one poll where Bush isn't the GOP primary frontrunner. Actually all those other guys are splitting the nutbag vote. The polls only show name recognition right now. They are useless for trying to determine anything else at this point.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:40
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Joementum posted:Possible running mates? Or perhaps a future Transportation Secretary. I dunno. Jeb doesn't... look presidential. He looks middle manager. There's no gravitas.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:41
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Mitt Romney posted:The polls only show name recognition right now. They are useless for trying to determine anything else at this point. YES I KNOW THAT but there is no evidence to support "The craziest motherfucker the GOP can find is going to win the nomination and then the presidency". At least the polling is ostensibly data indicating something though we can argue the validity of that data. I want to know where these other conclusions are coming from.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:41
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Good Citizen posted:I don't see Bush even winning the primary. Id give him better odds in the general (assuming he got that far) than I would in the primary. He may be getting the money secured but he's entirely misreading the current gop primary voters and making the wrong moves. That and there will be too many 'moderate' choices splitting that part of the base early on and robbing him of momentum. Dude, I am massively amused by pointless, baseless speculation at this point, and all I can think about is Cruz or Huckabee making it to the fuckin RNC and having to pick a VP candidate. How do you balance out those loving tickets? Cruz/Cruz's Gargantuan Ego? Huckabee/Lloyd Blankfein? Their bench is so piss-poor, and there are so many high-school fuckin cliques, like nobody wants Paul as a VP, and Ryan and Rubio both choked on different random objects. We are guaranteed some serious tragicomedy, no matter what. It would be so cool if Bush was nominated and tried to top his dad by selecting a person with literal Down Syndrome to be his VP, so he could out-dumb Quayle. Maybe he could out-evil his brother and get one of the Koch brothers...
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Jan 9, 2015 18:41
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RuanGacho posted:The dynamic scoring thing is exactly the sort of issue that should be the number one cause for anyone who cares about facts or reality, and I'm honestly surprised that there hasn't been more attention drawn to it, that kind of bribing the umpire on national television is poo poo I would consider government shutdown plausible. As dumb as the CBO switching to dynamic scoring is going to be, the practical effect of it is going to be very small. It's not like the Republicans were paying much attention to CBO projections before - they've already passed a few bills that violate their deficit cutting principles this year - and the public only hears about these issues through a partisan lens. The CBO will score their next budget as the fulfillment of Reagan's fever dreams, Brookings will issue a report debunking that, Heritage will issue a report calling the Brookings report bullshit, and Obama will veto it.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:42
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Quidam Viator posted:It would be so cool if Bush was nominated and tried to top his dad by selecting a person with literal Down Syndrome to be his VP, so he could out-dumb Quayle. Maybe he could out-evil his brother and get one of the Koch brothers...
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Jan 9, 2015 18:44
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Also, I don't think we've sufficiently mocked Jeb's new Super PAC yet.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:45
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Quidam Viator posted:Dude, I am massively amused by pointless, baseless speculation at this point, and all I can think about is Cruz or Huckabee making it to the fuckin RNC and having to pick a VP candidate. How do you balance out those loving tickets? Cruz/Cruz's Gargantuan Ego? Huckabee/Lloyd Blankfein? Their bench is so piss-poor, and there are so many high-school fuckin cliques, like nobody wants Paul as a VP, and Ryan and Rubio both choked on different random objects. We are guaranteed some serious tragicomedy, no matter what. It would be so cool if Bush was nominated and tried to top his dad by selecting a person with literal Down Syndrome to be his VP, so he could out-dumb Quayle. Maybe he could out-evil his brother and get one of the Koch brothers... Lee has spent the entirety of the last 2 years angling to be Cruz's VP.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:46
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zoux posted:What are you basing that on because I can find exactly one poll where Bush isn't the GOP primary frontrunner. Actually all those other guys are splitting the nutbag vote. He got them from a new dynamic scoring poll system.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:48
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http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/01/do-americans-have-a-right-to-rise-jeb-bush-presidential-pac/384329/ This article makes a few decent points: Job is essentially running to the left of the current Republican base. That doesn't mean all that much for the future as you'd hope - W did as well - but if he's successful that will be an interesting shift in the national dialogue moving left. It is also, of course, a gigantic liability for him in the primaries.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:49
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Oracle posted:He'll pick Joe Liberman as the ultimate gently caress you to both McCain and the Dems. Holy poo poo, I never considered the Joementum Gambit. He covers both evil and stupid in one convenient package! You're a fuckin genius. God, can you see the Freepers pulling that loving lever to spite Hillary? That's just beautiful, man.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:49
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evilweasel posted:http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/01/do-americans-have-a-right-to-rise-jeb-bush-presidential-pac/384329/ I'll be damned if Compassionate Conservatism 2: Electric Boogaloo wins him the election after the Dubya years.
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Jan 9, 2015 18:51
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Gravel Gravy posted:Just because you load Windows 7 on a Commodore 64 it isn't going to make it better. I know the point you're trying to make here, but if I could actually run Windows 7 on a Commodore 64, I'd never use anything else.  Joementum posted:Possible running mates? Or perhaps a future Transportation Secretary. It's probably not a good sign I couldn't tell which of these three was Jeb. (Up to and including the woman.)
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Jan 9, 2015 18:52
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Joementum posted:Also, I don't think we've sufficiently mocked Jeb's new Super PAC yet. What an idiot. Look at that image. How hard would it be to remove that hand and replace it with a penis? Don't these guys ever learn?
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Jan 9, 2015 18:57
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Pohl posted:What an idiot. Look at that image. How hard would it be to remove that hand and replace it with a penis? Who would remove the hand? Put the penis in the hand duh
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Jan 9, 2015 18:57
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Maybe it's an early hint from Jeb about his real choice for VP.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTvwaE0L6lg
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Jan 9, 2015 19:01
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Joementum posted:Maybe it's an early hint from Jeb about his real choice for VP.... They can't afford to risk the bleaghh people vote.
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Jan 9, 2015 19:03
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