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Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

Volkerball posted:

A Russian hedge fund manager just walked off with $20 million. :v: No one can find him.

http://www.businessinsider.com/blac...campaign=buffer

20 million from a hedge fund manager? What a rank amateur.

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Guildencrantz
May 1, 2012

IM ONE OF THE GOOD ONES

A Pale Horse posted:

Despite what many of you think about me being a frothing nationalist, this is not a good thing. It shifts the political center further to the right than it is and definitely than it should be and means that any meaningful progress on social issues is likely dead in the water for the time being. Its amazing how bad Leszek Miller is as a party leader and how terribly he's managed SLD over the past several years. Its even more amazing that they can't get rid of him because there's no one better to replace him. Requiescat in Pace SLD, you were mostly poo poo.

Oh gently caress them anyway. Every decent person left SLD long ago and they have nothing to offer anybody, plus there's nothing even social-democratic about their policies except "we're not really bros with the clergy". There will be no sensible alternative on that side as long as that bunch of corrupt, lying incompetents bears the mantle of "the only left-wing party" and frankly I can't wait to see them fall below the threshold as they well deserve.

Sure, we'll have a period of total right-wing hegemony where nothing even nominally left of center exists, but that's just confirmation of what is already de facto the case. At least the idea of being left-wing won't be associated with Leszek loving Miller.

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




steinrokkan posted:

I do kind of understand the sentiment that foreigners are "stealing our children". Honestly I'm puzzled that there seems to be very little controversy about the trend of adoptions from Third world countries in general, which are more often than not a way to exploit economic destitution rather than an attempt to relieve it.

http://rhrealitycheck.org/article/2009/01/08/the-lie-we-love/

Unicef takes a pretty nuanced view of the whole thing, specifically that it's an absolute last resort and should be done in compliance with the 1993 Hague Convention on Protection of Children and Co-operation in Respect of intercountry Adoptions.

Cue calls for boycotting Unicef Christmas cards being splashed around in the American press, complete with "war on adoption" rhetoric and much wailing and gnashing of teeth among the adoption community.

Hell, here's a great article about it all.

quote:

Westerners have been sold the myth of a world orphan crisis. We are told that millions of children are waiting for their “forever families” to rescue them from lives of abandonment and abuse. But many of the infants and toddlers being adopted by Western parents today are not orphans at all. Yes, hundreds of thousands of children around the world do need loving homes. But more often than not, the neediest children are sick, disabled, traumatized, or older than 5. They are not the healthy babies that, quite understandably, most Westerners hope to adopt. There are simply not enough healthy, adoptable infants to meet Western demand—and there’s too much Western money in search of children. As a result, many international adoption agencies work not to find homes for needy children but to find children for Western homes.

quote:

Because the vast majority of the country’s institutionalized children are not healthy, adoptable babies, almost none has been adopted abroad. In the fall of 2007, a survey conducted by the Guatemalan government, UNICEF, and the international child welfare and adoption agency Holt International Children’s Services found approximately 5,600 children and adolescents in Guatemalan institutions. More than 4,600 of these children were age 4 or older. Fewer than 400 were under a year old. And yet in 2006, more than 270 Guatemalan babies, all younger than 12 months, were being sent to the United States each month. These adopted children were simply not coming from the country’s institutions. Last year, 98 percent of U.S. adoptions from Guatemala were "relinquishments": Babies who had never seen the inside of an institution were signed over directly to a private attorney who approved the international adoption-for a very considerable fee-without any review by a judge or social service agency.


Like, not to say that Putin isn't using this as a political football, but there is at least some truth underlying Russian concerns.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

[url=http://www.blackseanews.net/read/93395]Police station in Yalta burned yesterday.[/quote]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifBbLkKGC8U



quote:

Jan. 9 in the occupied Yalta burned police building.

A fire in a building located in the heart of Yalta, began in the morning. According to preliminary information, a fire occurred in the building, where the offices of investigators. A few hours later, firefighters managed to put out the flames.

Official information on the causes of fire and there were no injuries.

emfive
Aug 6, 2011

Hey emfive, this is Alec. I am glad you like the mummy eating the bowl of shitty pasta with a can of 'parm.' I made that image for you way back when. I’m glad you enjoy it.

Friendly Tumour posted:

This has probably been posted before, but here's the Finnish band Leningrad Cowboys performing together with the Red Army choir in '93 at the Senate Square in Helsinki.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHb4Q6hSXEI

I sincerely hope that everybody has watched the gently caress out of this.

[edit] holy gently caress "Happy Together" jesus christ

[edit] Sweet Home Alabama :psyduck:

seriously that is pro-click territory there

emfive fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Jan 11, 2015

Mightypeon
Oct 10, 2013

Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

A Pale Horse posted:

Meanwhile in Poland the only remaining relevant left of center party is going into its death throes. SLD, the post communist successor party and most successful post liberation leftist group nominated a complete nobody for the Presidential elections in a few month. While there have been calls for months now to nominate Ryszard Kalisz, a serious and generally well like pragmatic leftist politician it appears the infighting in the party made this impossible (Kalisz was kicked out of SLD several years ago for dallying with other leftist groups). Instead they nominated some not very well known reporter and church scholar named Magdalena Ogorek who while very pretty and young, has 0 political experience and almost as little name recognition. Additionally they appear not to have vetted her very well because its emerging that she is a social conservative who supported a Polish medical doctor and professor who openly lied to one of his pregnant patients who was carrying a baby with a severe birth defect (anencephaly [zombaby]) just so that she would be unable to get an abortion (and was later fired from his post by Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, the president of Warsaw). She'll be lucky to pull 3%. With the total collapse of Palikot's movement and now apparently SLD it leaves the Polish political scene completely bereft of left leaning parties. PO is now the most left wing party on the scene (something Kaczynski has been saying for years :v: ) despite being not too dissimilar from traditional American Republicans (not Tea Partiers).

Despite what many of you think about me being a frothing nationalist, this is not a good thing. It shifts the political center further to the right than it is and definitely than it should be and means that any meaningful progress on social issues is likely dead in the water for the time being. Its amazing how bad Leszek Miller is as a party leader and how terribly he's managed SLD over the past several years. Its even more amazing that they can't get rid of him because there's no one better to replace him. Requiescat in Pace SLD, you were mostly poo poo.

Anancephalia? But that is like an automatic death sentence? The gently caress?

A Pale Horse
Jul 29, 2007

Mightypeon posted:

Anancephalia? But that is like an automatic death sentence? The gently caress?

Yes but you see abortion is murder. That was his literal defense. Abortion is murder in all circumstances. Poland already has very limited access to abortions but one of the few conditions that does allow for it is genetic defect not consistent with survival but that wasn't enough for the good professor. He lied to the mother and told her that the defects weren't that bad and that her baby would live. By the time she got a second opinion it was past the 22 week cut off point allowable for abortions. She had to carry a baby she knew would die very shortly after birth to full term because of the good doctor. When confronted he had absolutely no remorse and of course the church and right wing politicians flocked to support him. It also turns out that the new candidate for president for the major left wing party thought the professor was correct in his actions. Shits hosed up.

Dusty Baker 2
Jul 8, 2011

Keyboard Inghimasi

emfive posted:

I sincerely hope that everybody has watched the gently caress out of this.

[edit] holy gently caress "Happy Together" jesus christ

[edit] Sweet Home Alabama :psyduck:

seriously that is pro-click territory there

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maOtX4tXyb4

This one's awesome on its own, but when you watch it after you watch this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls1VCPoN9GI it's even better.

Mightypeon
Oct 10, 2013

Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

A Pale Horse posted:

Yes but you see abortion is murder. That was his literal defense. Abortion is murder in all circumstances. Poland already has very limited access to abortions but one of the few conditions that does allow for it is genetic defect not consistent with survival but that wasn't enough for the good professor. He lied to the mother and told her that the defects weren't that bad and that her baby would live. By the time she got a second opinion it was past the 22 week cut off point allowable for abortions. She had to carry a baby she knew would die very shortly after birth to full term because of the good doctor. When confronted he had absolutely no remorse and of course the church and right wing politicians flocked to support him. It also turns out that the new candidate for president for the major left wing party thought the professor was correct in his actions. Shits hosed up.

I mean seriously, anancephalia literally means that the baby has no brain. Didnt he also massively endangered the live of the mother because this? My major is in biophysics, but common sense tells me that this kind of anomalies would also risk the mother because they are that anomal and would likely prevent a normal birth from occuring.

Guildencrantz
May 1, 2012

IM ONE OF THE GOOD ONES

Mightypeon posted:

I mean seriously, anancephalia literally means that the baby has no brain. Didnt he also massively endangered the live of the mother because this? My major is in biophysics, but common sense tells me that this kind of anomalies would also risk the mother because they are that anomal and would likely prevent a normal birth from occuring.

Yes. Also there's the, you know, massive psychological trauma. Buuut when called on his bullshit he just went "help help I'm being repressed by tyrannical secularists" and that's a great way to rally support from thousands of well-organized crazy people. He got fired from his position in a public hospital, but now he works at a private one - and makes shitloads of money from book deals and speaking engagements thanks to being a ~hero of the right to life~.

The Catholic religious right is seriously at an "American evangelical fundies" level of insane at this point, they'll grab tight onto any cause that makes them feel like they're getting martyrdom points.

Mightypeon
Oct 10, 2013

Putin apologist- assume all uncited claims are from Russia Today or directly from FSB.

key phrases: Poor plucky little Russia, Spheres of influence, The West is Worse, they was asking for it.

emfive posted:

I sincerely hope that everybody has watched the gently caress out of this.

[edit] holy gently caress "Happy Together" jesus christ

[edit] Sweet Home Alabama :psyduck:

seriously that is pro-click territory there

Like, all of it is blocked in Germany.
I should try using my non existent Russian Spy skills to call an artillery strike on Gema.

A Pale Horse
Jul 29, 2007

Mightypeon posted:

I mean seriously, anancephalia literally means that the baby has no brain. Didnt he also massively endangered the live of the mother because this? My major is in biophysics, but common sense tells me that this kind of anomalies would also risk the mother because they are that anomal and would likely prevent a normal birth from occuring.

The defect itself is not dangerous to the mother but there is always the chance that such a baby will die in utero and the mother won't notice which can lead to severe medical complications. But like Guildencrantz said, what is certain is the psychological trauma of the fact that you're carrying what is destined to be a corpse very shortly after birth for 9 full months compounded by the fact that you've been the victim of severe malpractice. The person you entrusted your health to lied to your face then implied you're a bad person because you wanted to remove the brainless baby from your womb. The man is a disgrace to the medical profession and should have been charged by the prosecutor for endangering his patient, lying to her and general medical malpractice. But of course he's the darling of the right wing so nope! Its situations like these that need a left wing to fight for the victims of such casual, thoughtless brutality and why SLD nominating a person for president who supported the professor is such a slap in the face.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Mightypeon posted:

Like, all of it is blocked in Germany.
I should try using my non existent Russian Spy skills to call an artillery strike on Gema.

drat. It's called The Total Balalaika Show if you wanna try searching on :filez: sites.

e: http://vdownload.eu/watch/11438091-leningrad-cowboys-total-balalaika-show-hd-1994.html

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I've just finished a long piece on the "SU-25 shot down MH17" narrative, SU-25, MH17 and the Problems with Keeping a Story Straight. Here's the opening and closing paragraphs which is the only thing most people read anyway according to fancy journalism studies

quote:

While the investigations in to the downing of MH17 continue there’s been much debate about who was responsible, and the weapon system used to down MH17. These theories can be generally split into two broad groups, one where a Buk surface to air missile system was used to shoot down MH17, the other where a Ukrainian military jet, usually specified as a SU-25, shot down MH17.

Bellingcat has examined much of the evidence and claims related to a Buk missile system being used, in particular tracking a Buk controlled by separatists on July 17th and finding the same Buk in Russia in late June in our report Origin of the Separatists’ Buk. In this piece we’ll examine claims relating to the use of a jet fighter to shoot down MH17, which reveals not only continual inconsistencies between the various claims made by the Russian government and presented in the media, but also examples of outright and provable falsehoods being presented by the Russian government and media.[/quote
[quote]The list of these questions goes on, and it seems that not only is the SU-25 narrative a fractured and contradictory mess, but requires the equipment used to act in such a way that it resembles a strike by a Buk missile rather than an attack by a SU-25. Given that these claims keep on coming it seems not unreasonable to ask that next time a claim is made about a SU-25 being used to shoot down MH17 that we are given something more than mystery witnesses, dubious theories, dodgy experts, and fake evidence.

As part of that piece I had this video put together showing how another of the claims made in the Russian MoD press conference on MH17 from July 21st was bullshit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLKOpZycXnQ

I plan to revisit the whole press conference and go through each claim one by one to see if the entire thing was horseshit, or just parts of it.

Horns of Hattin
Dec 21, 2011
Do you have any plans of getting your work translated into Russian?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

eigenstate posted:

Do you have any plans of getting your work translated into Russian?

Some blogs have done that off their own back in the past, and I'm working on a project I plan to get translated in to Russian and other languages if I get the funding needed to do so.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Cagle needs to explain why the Russia bear is sticking Latvia and Estonia voodoo dolls with pins.

ass struggle
Dec 25, 2012

by Athanatos
http://youtu.be/hx_CUXrw7K8?t=3h58m45s

Really bad fighting right now in Donetsk. Looks like the power in the airport/city got knocked out again.

"so much for a ceasefire" for the tenth time.

Guildencrantz
May 1, 2012

IM ONE OF THE GOOD ONES

A Pale Horse posted:

The defect itself is not dangerous to the mother but there is always the chance that such a baby will die in utero and the mother won't notice which can lead to severe medical complications. But like Guildencrantz said, what is certain is the psychological trauma of the fact that you're carrying what is destined to be a corpse very shortly after birth for 9 full months compounded by the fact that you've been the victim of severe malpractice. The person you entrusted your health to lied to your face then implied you're a bad person because you wanted to remove the brainless baby from your womb. The man is a disgrace to the medical profession and should have been charged by the prosecutor for endangering his patient, lying to her and general medical malpractice. But of course he's the darling of the right wing so nope! Its situations like these that need a left wing to fight for the victims of such casual, thoughtless brutality and why SLD nominating a person for president who supported the professor is such a slap in the face.

Just to fill in some missing details: In Polish law, there's a "conscience clause" (as yet another concession to the Church) that says a doctor may refuse to perform a legal abortion, but he's obliged to provide contacts to other doctors who will. Dr Chazan circumvented this by lying, but it's already really hard to get a legal abortion when you have the right, as many doctors are reluctant to get on that list because they'll be named-and-shamed by pro-life circles. Also in the immediate aftermath of the whole affair, a "Union of Catholic Pharmacists" suddenly popped up, demanding that they, too, should be given a conscience clause that allows them to refuse to sell contraceptives and the day after pill - which is already prescription-only and a religious doctor will usually refuse to prescribe it :suicide: (or only do it in their private practice, the abuse of which is the big form of de facto corruption in healthcare)

The SLD presidential candidate lady did react to the backlash on the left for that blog entry supporting Chazan: she surreptitiously deleted it and is pretending it never happened, because that's apparently how the internet works. She also made comments, in the same entry, that shes's a feminist, but "feminism to her means helping educated middle-class women get into managerial positions" which holy poo poo I thought that was just a strawman and not an opinion people actually hold. I'm beginning to suspect that her nomination was because a bunch of gross old dudes voted for the hot blonde, or they're cynical enough about society to think people will vote based on that. Probably a combination of both, because holy poo poo she is bad at this.

Leszek Miller has officially become a washed-up evil mastermind heading an army of bumbling goons.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Cagle needs to explain why the Russia bear is sticking Latvia and Estonia voodoo dolls with pins.



Russia... bad.

Gantolandon
Aug 19, 2012

A Pale Horse posted:

Meanwhile in Poland the only remaining relevant left of center party is going into its death throes. SLD, the post communist successor party and most successful post liberation leftist group nominated a complete nobody for the Presidential elections in a few month. While there have been calls for months now to nominate Ryszard Kalisz, a serious and generally well like pragmatic leftist politician it appears the infighting in the party made this impossible (Kalisz was kicked out of SLD several years ago for dallying with other leftist groups). Instead they nominated some not very well known reporter and church scholar named Magdalena Ogorek who while very pretty and young, has 0 political experience and almost as little name recognition. Additionally they appear not to have vetted her very well because its emerging that she is a social conservative who supported a Polish medical doctor and professor who openly lied to one of his pregnant patients who was carrying a baby with a severe birth defect (anencephaly [zombaby]) just so that she would be unable to get an abortion (and was later fired from his post by Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, the president of Warsaw). She'll be lucky to pull 3%. With the total collapse of Palikot's movement and now apparently SLD it leaves the Polish political scene completely bereft of left leaning parties. PO is now the most left wing party on the scene (something Kaczynski has been saying for years :v: ) despite being not too dissimilar from traditional American Republicans (not Tea Partiers).

Despite what many of you think about me being a frothing nationalist, this is not a good thing. It shifts the political center further to the right than it is and definitely than it should be and means that any meaningful progress on social issues is likely dead in the water for the time being. Its amazing how bad Leszek Miller is as a party leader and how terribly he's managed SLD over the past several years. Its even more amazing that they can't get rid of him because there's no one better to replace him. Requiescat in Pace SLD, you were mostly poo poo.


SLD going against their professed ideology is a long tradition - Leszek Miller, as the Prime Minister, wanted to implement flat income tax and made a lot of concession to Catholic bishops while trying to get their support of EU accession. For some reason, there are people who still view SLD as a social-democrat party, but those usually tend to think the same about every party on the Polish political scene but KNP and neonazis. Most of the others moved on.

The most likely reason why they did nominate Magdalena Ogórek is because everyone else would have been worse. Everyone pretty much hates Miller's guts and, as the previous party leaders shown, SLD is completely devoid of charismatic, likeable politicians. Even if they somehow got Kalisz to return, he's an obese guy with an expensive taste who famously arrived on an anti-austerity manifestation by a luxury Jaguar and recently whined that MPs in Sejm don't earn enough - the exact opposite of someone whom you would imagine as a de facto leader of the left. Ogórek is pretty much the most likable person they could find and that speaks for itself about the condition of the party.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Prime Minister of Serbia accuses the EU of backing anti-government media.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015...campaign=buffer

quote:

(Reuters) - Serbia's prime minister accused European Union's officials late on Saturday of orchestrating a campaign against the government after a regional news organization published a critical article about the reconstruction of a key coal mine.

The dispute came after Sarajevo-based Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) reported earlier in the week that the state-owned power monopoly Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS) hired an inexperienced local consortium to work on the reconstruction of the Tamnava coal mine, increasing costs.

Fifty one people died in floods in Serbia last May that inflicted damages of more than 1.5 billion euros, including flooding of the Tamnava mine which is supplying coal to TENT power plant complex that accounts for half of country's energy generation.

At a news conference earlier on Saturday, Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic accused the EU and Michael Davenport, the head of EU mission to Serbia, of financing media organizations, including BIRN, to slander the government.

In a statement, Maja Kocijancic, a European Commission spokeswoman said she was surprised by Vucic's claims. “Media criticism is essential to ensure the proper accountability of elected governments," she said.

Kocijancic also said that the EU expected that the Serbian authorities would secure an environment that would support freedom of expression and media.

Last June, Vucic also clashed with the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), security and rights watchdog, accusing it of lying after it criticized his government of trying to smother online criticism of its handling of the floods.

Later on Saturday, Vucic also accused Kocijancic of trying to silence him.

"I am shocked by the fact that Maja Kocijancic in the name of the EU has tried to shut me up,” he said in a letter to the Commission. "I am refusing to be your puppet," Vucic said.

Vucic is a former ultranationalist who served as the information minister during the autocratic rule of late strongman Slobodan Milosevic in late 1990s. He later changed policies and embraced Serbia's path to European Union membership.

Geore Soros made a secret visit to Kyiv. :stare:

http://24today.net/open/268386

quote:

TSN.ua George Soros arrived in Kiev Billionaire George Soros again in Kiev. According to sources, TSN , an American staying in one of the five star hotels of the capital.

His arrival proanonsirovat on his page on the social network Anna Gopko, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Verkhovna Rada.

See also: Soros scared West apocalyptic predictions, if not stop Putin in Ukraine

However, TSN know that tomorrow Soros meet with MPs. What is of interest Ukrainian famous billionaire - is unknown. Any information about his stay here are kept in strict confidence.

Fund "Revival", which probably is the organizer of the visit of foreign guests, neither confirms nor denies the fact of the arrival of its founder.

Last visit of George Soros last fall was also classified. Then he met with Ukrainian officials and businessmen. As a result - planned to help find the money for the restoration of Donbass.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Geore Soros made a secret visit to Kyiv. :stare:

http://24today.net/open/268386

Soros recently also has written several appeals/doomsday predicts in the New York Review of Books recently, here is the most recent one: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/feb/05/new-policy-rescue-ukraine/ .

One big worry on his mind is that Ukraine currently may not be financially salvageable and that the EU and most Western institutions (in his mind) are going to have to use much of their financial might to save it. It is unclear about Soros' stake in all of this, hey maybe it is purely altruistic.

quote:


European political leaders must tap into the large unused borrowing capacity of the EU itself and find other unorthodox sources to be able to offer Ukraine a larger financial package than the one currently contemplated. That would enable the Ukrainian government to embark on radical reform. I have identified several such sources, notably:

1. The Balance of Payments Assistance facility (used for Hungary and Romania) has unused funds of $47.5 billion and the European Financial Stability Mechanism (used for Portugal and Ireland) has about $15.8 billion of unused funds. Both mechanisms are currently limited to EU member states but could be used to support Ukraine by modifying their respective regulations by a qualified majority upon a proposal by the European Commission. Alternatively, the Commission could use and expand the Macro-Financial Assistance Facility, which has already been used in Ukraine. There is indeed a range of technical options and the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker should propose a way forward as soon as the Ukrainian government has presented a convincing set of priorities.

2. Larger matching funds from the European Union would enable the IMF to increase its lending to Ukraine by $13 billion and to convert the existing Stand-By Agreement into a longer-term Extended Fund Facility program. This would bring the total size of the IMF program to fifteen times Ukraine’s current IMF quota, an unusually large multiple but one that already has a precedent in the case of Ireland, for example.

3. European Investment Bank project bonds could yield €10 billion or more. These funds would be used to connect Ukraine to a unified European gas market and to break up Naftogaz, the Ukrainian gas monopoly. These changes would greatly improve Ukraine’s energy efficiency and produce very high returns on investment. It would help create a unified European gas market and reduce not only Ukraine’s but also Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. The breakup of Naftogaz is the centerpiece of Ukraine’s reform plans.

4. Long-term financing from the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for restructuring the banking sector. This should yield about $5 billion. The 2009 Vienna Initiative for Eastern Europe, which proved to be highly successful in limiting capital flight and stabilizing the banking system, should be extended to Ukraine. The foundations for such an extension were already laid at the inaugural meeting of the Ukrainian Financial Forum in June 2014.

5. Restructuring Ukraine’s sovereign debt should free in excess of $4 billion scarce foreign exchange reserves. Ukraine has almost $8 billion in sovereign debt coming due in the private bond markets in the next three years. Instead of a default that would have disastrous consequences, Ukraine should negotiate with its bondholders (who happen to be relatively few) a voluntary, market-based exchange for new long-term debt instruments. In order to make the exchange successful, part of the new financial assistance should be used for credit enhancements for the new debt instruments. The foreign assistance needed for this purpose would depend on what bondholders require to participate in the exchange, but it could free at least twice as much foreign exchange over the next three years.

6. Ukraine must also deal with a $3 billion bond issued by the Russian government to Ukraine coming due in 2015. Russia may be willing to reschedule the payments by Ukraine on the bond voluntarily in order to earn favorable points for an eventual relaxation of the sanctions against it. Alternatively, the bond may be classified as government-to-government debt, restructured by the group of nations officially called the Paris Club, in order to insulate the rest of Ukrainian bonds from their cross-default provisions (which put the borrower in default if he fails to meet another obligation). The legal and technical details need to be elaborated.

Seems like a long shot to me, especially since breaking up Naftogaz on its own isn't going to fix very much (beyond investment opportunities).

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 02:18 on Jan 12, 2015

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Ardennes posted:



Seems like a long shot to me, especially since breaking up Naftogaz on its own isn't going to fix very much (beyond investment opportunities).

If I understand correctly, it's mostly meant to reduce corruption opportunities, though I am completely at the loss for specifics.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

OddObserver posted:

If I understand correctly, it's mostly meant to reduce corruption opportunities, though I am completely at the loss for specifics.

Yeah but it is unclear exactly if that makes a difference if Naftogaz is broken up, privatized and charges whatever rates it wants. Fine, you could say it isn't "corruption" rather profitization but I don't see end users really benefiting. Also, the type of efficiency improvements Ukraine needs may very well more than 10 billion dollars if they actually want to completely re-do the Soviet era district heating system, which has always been known as being inefficient (lack of maintain and investment for decades also helps). Also, who is going to pay for paying off the bonds?

Also, if it is going to take the EU to really reach in its piggy bank to bail out Ukraine, I don't know if it is going to happen considering the EU might be looking at issues closer to home in the not too far off future. Also it doesn't help that Ukraine has a worse credit rating than any member of the EU including Greece.

That said on the other hand Ukraine is between a rock and hard place, so I guess they may hope for a hail Mary.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 06:47 on Jan 12, 2015

my dad
Oct 17, 2012

this shall be humorous
Vučić is an rear end in a top hat who likes playing the victim. EU is financing BIRN, as a part of it's NGO financing programs, so Vučić is basing his argument on being technically correct, but with a spin that favors his side. As for the situation, his official explanation given in our media is that the local company that won the bid offered to do the job for significantly less money than the foreign company that lost the bid. It wouldn't be the first time EU raises a fuss when a EU company doesn't get what it wants, but I'm loathe to trust Vučić's explanation, particularly when his side of the story was given so much media time here.

I still find it hilarious in a dark way that his party was the only one that could gather a wide-reaching coalition (that included minority parties) to take down the ridiculously corrupt previous government. Some of you probably remember how happy I was when that happened, and it probably weirds out those of you who noticed. Well, the previous government was just that ridiculously corrupt, there genuinely was a lot of improvement after elections, and I didn't expect Vučić's party to get so many more votes in another election that happened a year later. I was hoping that we'd have a barely-a-majority coalition that had to resort to political compromise.

Of course, now that he's managed to set himself up nice and cozy, he's bound to try and catch up to the guys he replaced. At least he's being public about the austerity measures, unlike the stealth approach taken by the previous guys, so he can actually be criticized about them. I dearly hope he'll lose the next elections, but I don't really think he will. The situation isn't helped by the Croatian election campaign either. Basically, every time a Croatian party says an incredibly dumb nationalist thing (and I don't know how much Croatian goons may have noticed it, but there's been a lot of dumb nationalist rhetoric coming from your country these last few months), a bunch of people give up on giving up on Vučić. Now that a HDZ president is in charge of Croatia again, we're in for some fun times.

Smerdyakov
Jul 8, 2008

Ardennes posted:

Yeah but it is unclear exactly if that makes a different if Naftogaz is broken up, privatized and charges whatever rates it wants. Fine, you could say it isn't "corruption" then normal profits but I don't see end users really benefiting. Also, the type of efficiency improvements Ukraine needs may very well more than 10 billion dollars if they actually want to completely re-do the Soviet era district heating system, which has always been known as being inefficient (lack of maintain and investment for decades also helps). Also, who is going to pay for paying off the bonds?

Also, if it is going to take the EU to really reach in its piggy bank to bail out Ukraine, I don't know if it is going to happen considering the EU might be looking at issues closer to home in the not too far off future. Also it doesn't help that Ukraine has a worse credit rating than any member of the EU including Greece.

That said on the other hand Ukraine is between a rock and hard place, so I guess they may hope for a hail Mary.

The basic problem with gas is that it's subject to a bunch of market distortions and subsidies, and even then, lots of people still steal it. They have no non-mechanical system of measuring it in most places and it's incredibly easy to tamper with the meters. Furthermore, in some ex-communals the gas is still measured per 4-6 apartments, by the floor, or even by the building, which makes it awkward to regulate usage. Where it's used for heating, it comes on in October and doesn't turn off until March--during that entire time it's going 24/7 and if your apartment gets too hot, your only option is to open a window. It's an incredibly wasteful system, but I don't see how breaking up Naftogaz will help.

The theory might be that you can give all the successor companies a roughly equal share of the liquid assets and market share, then immediately cut all subsidies, the few that figure out a viable business model will eat up the ones that fail. Of course, that sounds exactly like shock therapy, which was not great. The other part of the Soros idea seems to be to cut the subsidies and charge users market rates then give cash to needy people so they can pay those rates, but that's unlikely to work, and the government knows it.

The elderly and (some) indigent in Ukraine are on a fixed pension, but when the currency lost half it's value in 2008/2014, those pensions didn't double. In fact, those pensions were actually cut in half as part of the austerity program, while losing half their value from inflation. It's totally understandable that Ukrainians would rather be compensated in subsidized goods than in cash, because the cash payments are highly unstable and tend to decline over time whereas gas that's nearly free is a reassuring constant. It's a needed reform but it's not a neutral one and there will be massive resistance to it. Even if Ukraine revalues their currency and does something like what the Brazilians did with the Real, no one trusts the government not to gently caress them over in the long run.

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost
New York Times article: Seizing Assets in Crimea, From Shipyard to Film Studio

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Smerdyakov posted:

The basic problem with gas is that it's subject to a bunch of market distortions and subsidies, and even then, lots of people still steal it. They have no non-mechanical system of measuring it in most places and it's incredibly easy to tamper with the meters. Furthermore, in some ex-communals the gas is still measured per 4-6 apartments, by the floor, or even by the building, which makes it awkward to regulate usage. Where it's used for heating, it comes on in October and doesn't turn off until March--during that entire time it's going 24/7 and if your apartment gets too hot, your only option is to open a window. It's an incredibly wasteful system, but I don't see how breaking up Naftogaz will help.

Absolutely there are vast problems with how gas usage is gauged, but many of those improvements will still take time, money and attention and that is just for residential gas usage. In addition, the very nature of how the district heating system works in Ukraine is quite rigid and if you want to see European style efficiency then you are going put in serious capital investments into it. I think there is a lot of efficiency to be gained there but at the same time those private companies are going to want to make a profit and they are going to be charging a captive market.

quote:

The theory might be that you can give all the successor companies a roughly equal share of the liquid assets and market share, then immediately cut all subsidies, the few that figure out a viable business model will eat up the ones that fail. Of course, that sounds exactly like shock therapy, which was not great. The other part of the Soros idea seems to be to cut the subsidies and charge users market rates then give cash to needy people so they can pay those rates, but that's unlikely to work, and the government knows it.

The elderly and (some) indigent in Ukraine are on a fixed pension, but when the currency lost half it's value in 2008/2014, those pensions didn't double. In fact, those pensions were actually cut in half as part of the austerity program, while losing half their value from inflation. It's totally understandable that Ukrainians would rather be compensated in subsidized goods than in cash, because the cash payments are highly unstable and tend to decline over time whereas gas that's nearly free is a reassuring constant. It's a needed reform but it's not a neutral one and there will be massive resistance to it. Even if Ukraine revalues their currency and does something like what the Brazilians did with the Real, no one trusts the government not to gently caress them over in the long run.

I think you are spot on here, cash remedies work when prices are relatively stable and predictable, not when a country is facing sudden devaluation. The problem for revaluation at the moment is they really have nothing to back a new currency with, but the word of the government. Without reserves there isn't going to be any faith in the new currency, and on top of that as outlined in that quote, Ukraine has a considerable amount of repayments that are coming up in the near future.

Admittedly, Ukraine doesn't really have anywhere to go and I guess Soros is right on the one point, that Ukraine is going to need a lot of help one way or another.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 07:04 on Jan 12, 2015

goattrails
Nov 27, 2009

Ride the frog, baby!

It's nice with an article that gleans into what's going on in Crimea.
Where I live, most of the mainstream media has unfortunately forgotten about it, and has moved on to better selling adventures.
They've mostly stopped reporting abut the eastern Ukraine too.

Tevery Best
Oct 11, 2013

Hewlo Furriend

Gantolandon posted:

The most likely reason why they did nominate Magdalena Ogórek is because everyone else would have been worse. Everyone pretty much hates Miller's guts and, as the previous party leaders shown, SLD is completely devoid of charismatic, likeable politicians. Even if they somehow got Kalisz to return, he's an obese guy with an expensive taste who famously arrived on an anti-austerity manifestation by a luxury Jaguar and recently whined that MPs in Sejm don't earn enough - the exact opposite of someone whom you would imagine as a de facto leader of the left. Ogórek is pretty much the most likable person they could find and that speaks for itself about the condition of the party.

rip in pieces Agent Olin

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Column of military stuff, supposedly from Krasnodon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kulTLXFjqw4

my dad
Oct 17, 2012

this shall be humorous
So, someone asked me why I refer to a 2nd cousin as sister, and why my father calls my mother's sister "a swastika[SIC]", and after a long, failed attempt at an explanation, I figured I might share this monstrosity with you:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbo-Croatian_kinship

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Svastika :laugh: polubrat and polusestra also sound funny, they more associate with me as having only half of body. rather than half of common parents. Elaborate kinship system seems to be one of the Slav cultures' trademarks.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747
Anything with "brat" will sound funny to English speakers; even though the cognate with "brother" is obvious.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Cat Mattress posted:

Anything with "brat" will sound funny to English speakers; even though the cognate with "brother" is obvious.
Haha, I did never notice that. Today I also learned about squat meaning "nothing" in U.S. jargon. Yesterday about Warsaw. Quite amusing, actually.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Banks in Belarus have stopped issuing loans for real estate.

quote:

January 12, Minsk / Correspondent. Learned /. JSC "Belarusbank" has suspended the issuance of loans to finance real estate. This information is available on the official website of the financial institution, BelTA informs. explains why and comment on the situation in the bank until stali.-0-

That seems like a big deal. The Belarusian Ruble has really tanked over the past month.

And trading on the Moscow stock exchange was halted for 50 minutes to correct a "fault"

http://lenta.ru/news/2015/01/12/forts

quote:

Trading on the futures market of the Moscow Stock Exchange was suspended from 14:00 to 14:50 MSK, said in a stock exchange . To correct the failure was held restart trading system.

The system is now available with applications for the removal of 14:22, and at 14:50, trading was resumed. On other sites exchange trading took place in the normal mode.

Previous failure on the futures market of the Moscow stock exchange took place October 14, 2014. Then Exchange suspended trading after the discovery of incorrect processing trading system one of the transactions. In the servers exchange information disclosure bug was found.

July 30 as a result of a technical failure in the main sector of the stock exchange trading was disrupted correct functioning of trading and clearing systems, trading was also suspended.

Such failures in the Moscow stock exchange occurred in the past. The most significant occurred in April 2012 when the bids have not been renewed for more than two hours. In 2013, there were a few glitches - in November for technical reasons interrupts the section urgent bidding, and in May to suspend operations in the main section.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 14:28 on Jan 12, 2015

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

New Croatian president targets government over economy.

quote:

Croatia's new center president signaled on Monday she meant to hold the Social Democrat-led government to account over the economy, in comments that could herald months of tense cohabitation before a parliamentary election.

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, who became Croatia's first female head of state on Sunday after narrowly beating the government-backed incumbent, said she would demand an extraordinary cabinet session to discuss the parlous state of the economy.

In Croatia, the president is largely ceremonial, with some say on foreign policy and defense but no power to veto laws. The president has the right to seek and attend such a special cabinet meeting but the right has rarely been exercised.

"My absolute priority is to demand a cabinet session to discuss the economic and social situation and see if there are any solutions," Grabar-Kitarovic, 46, a former diplomat, told the top-selling Vecernji List daily in an interview.

Croatia's economy has been in recession for six years and unemployment stands at 19 percent.

Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic, whose Social Democrats trail the president's center HDZ party in opinion polls, responded negatively to her demand for a special meeting.

"No president has ever dared demand that from the government, which holds sessions every week," he said late on Sunday. "I can't imagine what it would look like, what would be the agenda. It is practically inconceivable."

Grabar-Kitarovic's victory is unlikely to affect policy, but it increases pressure on the government, analysts said.

"If the government refuses her calls for a cabinet session, it may further tarnish its image, make it look like it does not want to cooperate," said political analyst Ivan Rimac.

A second analyst, Zeljko Puhovski, said the HDZ now had "a positive political tide on its side" but was not guaranteed to capture the parliament in the election, due later this year.

"They (HDZ) will be the single strongest party, but we now see the electorate is split almost 50-50, so we have to see the coalition potential of each camp when the time comes," he said.

Market reaction to the presidential election was muted, with the kuna and the Crobex stock index little changed.

"The two main camps are centrist parties, there are no big differences that could create uncertainties for the markets," said Hrvoje Stojic, chief economist at Hypo Bank.

"I am more worried by the fact that in this country every reform dies in an election year, and the reforms have already been almost non-existent."

Dusty Baker 2
Jul 8, 2011

Keyboard Inghimasi
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2V3pwvjr9Xg

Right now, 6:10 AM Pacific Standard Time, Donetsk is getting the everloving gently caress shelled out of it.

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HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Christ, it's non-stop.

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