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Last night I was at the peace arch crossing and all of the booths were open and there was zero wait. lol i hope all the cbsa stooges get laid off.
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Jan 25, 2015 22:03
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Cultural Imperial posted:Yo, what makes you think city employment will remain constant? I don`t, but it`d have to be depression-level conditions to actually have enough of an impact on housing demand to affect prices. Which could happen, I admit! Now, the Toronto condo market on the other hand....
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Jan 25, 2015 22:20
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Well hopefully the capex and layoff downturn implodes the Albertan real estate market first.
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Jan 25, 2015 22:21
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Dreylad posted:I would love for housing prices to drop in Toronto but yeah I don't see Toronto being affected by any potential real estate crash, not because I believe in the magical power infallibility of real estate markets or anything, just that demand isn't going to drop off because so many people work in the city. But the surrounding area will probably get hit really hard, especially eastern GTA where the Oshawa GM plant is looking like it will close. Would a housing crash at least cause a slump in rental prices within downtown Toronto? Because that would be mildly positive.
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Jan 25, 2015 22:24
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Dreylad posted:I don`t, but it`d have to be depression-level conditions to actually have enough of an impact on housing demand to affect prices. Which could happen, I admit! To put things in perspective, http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/11/21/rbc-layoffs-wealth-management_n_6197998.html http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/11/4/Scotiabank-to-cut-1500-jobs-close-about-120-branches-amid-writedown-.aspx My point is that financial contagion hits you in ways you don't anticipate. I went through this with the tech bust. Don't assume you're immune. namaste friends fucked around with this message at 22:28 on Jan 25, 2015 |
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Jan 25, 2015 22:24
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What's the GTA economy like in terms of sector composition? Is it overly concentrated in the government and finance sectors.
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Jan 25, 2015 22:28
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It's pretty diverse but any real estate crash would have a huge impact, because it's interconnected with so many industries. Construction, finance, manufacturing would all experience shocks. Demand for housing will most certainly fall when workers get laid off and salaries decline. The danger in the Toronto area specifically is that there is so much construction going on that entire projects could get cancelled mid-construction (it's happened MANY times before) and you could have huge surpluses of residential and commercial space if demand drops off. Empty buildings and building sites are really bad and lead to very long recovery times. RBC fucked around with this message at 22:43 on Jan 25, 2015 |
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Jan 25, 2015 22:39
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Cultural Imperial posted:Yo, what makes you think city employment will remain constant? Your taxes paying to bail out the big 5, fucker. Toronto can't fail!
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Jan 25, 2015 22:53
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Cultural Imperial posted:To put things in perspective, I don`t assume Toronto`s immune to anything, given how much financial capital in Toronto is tied into Alberta things may very well come crashing down. Good articles though, thanks for linking them.
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Jan 25, 2015 22:58
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Dreylad posted:I would love for housing prices to drop in Toronto but yeah I don't see Toronto being affected by any potential real estate crash, not because I believe in the magical power infallibility of real estate markets or anything, just that demand isn't going to drop off because so many people work in the city. But the surrounding area will probably get hit really hard, especially eastern GTA where the Oshawa GM plant is looking like it will close. I think it's the other, less-populous CMAs that are more like to see a major correction in their housing markets, eg. Calgary, Oshawa, London, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Windsor, K-W, and Barrie to name a few. That's not to say that the GTA's housing market isn't over-inflated and wacky as hell. It definitely is. But people will do anything to make sure the mortgage for their house in the GTA gets paid. So even if rates go up people will make sure the mortgage gets paid, even if it means completely eliminating their non-mortgage budgets ("Boiled hot dogs for dinner! Again! And also for breakfast!"). melon cat fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Jan 25, 2015 |
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Jan 25, 2015 23:34
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If ridiculously populous areas that have high demand for housing like California or Tokyo can have a housing price bust than so can places like Toronto. Prices stabilizing at unaffordable levels is not something that happens. Everyone wants to pay the mortgage and using credit cards, family funds, retirement funds, whatever were used to try and 'save the home' in other bubbles too yet they still busted. What will be interesting to see is exactly what methods are used and rules get bent when they start to prop up home prices.
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Jan 25, 2015 23:41
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Unless people simply stop living in the big cities then a lot of baby boomers are gonna be ok. Like my father in law managed to buy eight large houses in Kitsilano/Shaughnessy and rents the gently caress out of them. They were paid off decades ago. My dad, of course, sold the Point Grey house he bought for $25,000 back in the 70s for $30,000.
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Jan 25, 2015 23:56
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:If ridiculously populous areas that have high demand for housing like California or Tokyo can have a housing price bust than so can places like Toronto.  And the larger Californian cities (San Francisco, San Jose, and even L.A.) are still insanely-expensive and far beyond the reach of most homebuyers, despite the bust having come and gone. Here's my armchair economist prediction- when interest rates go up, real estate prices in Canada's larger CMAs will grow slowly. They won't flat-out crash like Calgary's market probably will, but they their value will definitely grow at a slower pace. And once the economy recovers, they'll resume their upward spiral. And once we've hit the ~$1 million dollar median home value range, it'll become more of a renter's market than a homeowner's market.
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Jan 26, 2015 00:02
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Did the USA really learn nothing form their housing bubble crash? 
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Jan 26, 2015 00:10
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melon cat posted:I feel the same way. Toronto's still seen has the immigrant gateway to the country, so there will always be steady demand for Toronto housing. I think that the same thing applies to the contiguous suburbs, too. There won't be a "crash", but prices will temporarily stabilize at some point. In the early 1990s there was a real estate crash and Toronto actually suffered worse than the rest of the province. There's no reason it can't happen again. "Immigration" as a catch all to prop up demand in a falling market doesn't work. 
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Jan 26, 2015 00:19
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RBC posted:In the early 1990s there was a real estate crash and Toronto actually suffered worse than the rest of the province. There's no reason it can't happen again. "Immigration" as a catch all to prop up demand in a falling market doesn't work. And I'll premptively retort by saying that, yes, I understand that salaries/household income hasn't grown in any meaningful way to justify the increased real estate values. And neither have amenities. Or municipal infrastructure. But markets aren't rational. melon cat fucked around with this message at 00:40 on Jan 26, 2015 |
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Jan 26, 2015 00:36
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melon cat posted:You're missing a crucial part of that chart you referenced- even though there were corrections in the Canadian housing market, the overall trend for house prices is upward. It's the exact same trend you'd see in any stock index. You've got your peaks, valleys, but it's more-or-less upward movement. So what? I'm arguing there will be a crash. You said there wouldn't be because "toronto" and "immigrants".
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Jan 26, 2015 00:39
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RBC posted:So what? I'm arguing there will be a crash. You said there wouldn't be because "toronto" and "immigrants".  You're over-simplifying the issue. A crash isn't the same thing as a correction. They're completely different. And I'm saying that while a correction is in the cards for Toronto's real estate market, a flat-out crash is less likely. But then again, you seem hell-bent on seeing the GTA housing market crash and burn, so I don't think you're listening to what's being said, at this point.
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Jan 26, 2015 00:46
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Isn't Canada already basically setting course for the liquidity trap? Basically things like interest rates and also bond yields keep on getting pushing lower over time to keep the whole system sustainable.
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Jan 26, 2015 00:50
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melon cat posted:Nice. Now we're moving into ad hominem insults, now? I'm not sure you know what ad hominem means.
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Jan 26, 2015 00:53
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B-but it's so hard being white! Waaaaaagh!
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Vaginapocalypse posted:I'm not sure you know what ad hominem means. etalian posted:Isn't Canada already basically setting course for the liquidity trap? melon cat fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Jan 26, 2015 |
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Jan 26, 2015 01:06
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Things like low bond yields at least from a historical perspective meant a safer more stable economy. However in the case of Canada IMO it's more signal of the titantic heading for the iceberg, especially after the BoC pushed down all the rates during the December commodity disaster.
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Jan 26, 2015 01:33
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melon cat posted:Even though California's markets experienced a crash back in '08, they've recovered since then. They're even approaching their pre-crash levels: *wages are still stagnant or declining while the cost of living (housing, medical care, and schooling in particular) keeps climbing and the jobs that are being added are minimum wage, that isn't a economic situation that contributes to historical housing growth rates at all much less the rate of increases we're currently seeing melon cat posted:Here's my armchair economist prediction- when interest rates go up, real estate prices in Canada's larger CMAs will grow slowly. They won't flat-out crash ... value will definitely grow at a slower pace. And once the economy recovers, they'll resume their upward spiral. And once we've hit the ~$1 million dollar median home value range... Current sales rates and prices are dependent on super low interest rates so most any sort of increase much less a increase back to historical averages will cause a crash. $1 million dollar median home values require ~$300K avg. wages (assuming no other debt other than the house of course) to make economic sense, where is that money gonna come from to pay the workers that much over a period of a few years or even a decade? Wages in general look like they need to up in Canada but outside of a hyperinflationary event those sorts of increases don't make sense. melon cat posted:the overall trend for house prices is upward. melon cat posted:I'd say that disregarding someone's valid argument and accusing them of parroting nonsense talking points ("because of "Toronto" and "immigrants") is a pretty good case for an ad hominem insult. Furnaceface posted:Did the USA really learn nothing form their housing bubble crash? PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 01:44 on Jan 26, 2015 |
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Jan 26, 2015 01:36
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:Nope. They blew another bubble and people are in denial about it all over again here in the US too. The US solution to the real estate bubble was QE which made it even cheaper to own a house and also many banks already have started to relax their lending standards again. Basically the only ways to prevent a US bubble again won't happen for political reason -Remove special tax treatment for homes like the mortgage and HELOC deduction -Get rid of government propping up real estate through things like FHA, Freddie Mac and other ways private mortgage debt gets backed by the government -More government regulation for things like underwriting requirements, subprime loans and minimal down payments -Shift gears over to more rental supply instead of focusing on home ownership being the primary goal of US housing policy
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Jan 26, 2015 01:45
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Mostly agree with all that. I would say don't get rid of govt. support for housing for at least the poor but do it in a way that prevents the Fan/Fred Mac shenanigans from happening all over again. I realize however such housing support may not be necessary in a market where housing prices are kept affordable so this is a bit of a nitpick.
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Jan 26, 2015 01:49
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Furnaceface posted:Did the USA really learn nothing form their housing bubble crash? The US isn't California. During the US bubble you had places like Idaho have 25% of their economy solely devoted to housing and construction. That hasn't reappeared. The issue with California is that it has another bubble going on, which thankfully is not as integral to the economy as housing.
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Jan 26, 2015 01:50
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:Mostly agree with all that. I would say don't get rid of govt. support for housing for at least the poor but do it in a way that prevents the Fan/Fred Mac shenanigans from happening all over again. I realize however such housing support may not be necessary in a market where housing prices are kept affordable so this is a bit of a nitpick. affordable rents for all should be the one of goal of any sane housing policy. Also if you have a rent focused housing solution you avoid all nasty side effects that come with home ownership like HELOCs spending spree and price speculation.
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Jan 26, 2015 01:51
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computer parts posted:Idaho Seattle looks to have gone loopy too. Pretty much anything near a coast really. But that is where most of the population lives. *For those not familiar with the area: tiny suburban town, nearly a exurb, that has some newer nice subdivisions that were built in the last 10yr or so but is still mostly poor and run down trailer parks and homes with 1 smallish strip mall, surrounded by farmland. PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 02:10 on Jan 26, 2015 |
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Jan 26, 2015 02:01
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Immigration hasn't saved Spanish home prices, despite them having an immigration for property purchase scheme. I see no reason it will save any market in Canada, Jamacian expat hub or no.
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Jan 26, 2015 02:20
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ocrumsprug posted:Immigration hasn't saved Spanish home prices, despite them having an immigration for property purchase scheme. I see no reason it will save any market in Canada, Jamacian expat hub or no. The home prices on a fundamental level are not driven by immigrants or evil rich Chinese. It's all about cheap easy credit with lovely underwriting and people thinking they are going to hit the jackpot.
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Jan 26, 2015 03:07
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Dreylad posted:I don`t, but it`d have to be depression-level conditions to actually have enough of an impact on housing demand to affect prices. What makes you think that? A median housing price that's as far above the normal multiple of median income as Toronto's is just isn't sustainable. melon cat posted:I feel the same way. Toronto's still seen has the immigrant gateway to the country, so there will always be steady demand for Toronto housing. I think that the same thing applies to the contiguous suburbs, too. There won't be a "crash", but prices will temporarily stabilize at some point. Having lots of immigrants means nothing if those immigrants don't have money. melon cat posted:That's not to say that the GTA's housing market isn't over-inflated and wacky as hell. It definitely is. But people will do anything to make sure the mortgage for their house in the GTA gets paid. So even if rates go up people will make sure the mortgage gets paid, even if it means completely eliminating their non-mortgage budgets ("Boiled hot dogs for dinner! Again! And also for breakfast!"). Yeah, except that not everyone's going to be able to do that. And then it starts looking a lot more like the U.S. in 2007-2008. melon cat posted:You're missing a crucial part of that chart you referenced- even though there were corrections in the Canadian housing market (and I definitely won't deny that. I've lived through them), the overall trend for house prices is upward. It's the exact same trend you'd see in any stock index. Not at all. The long-term trend in housing prices, at least in real-dollar terms, is pretty much flat; stock markets do significantly better than flat. RBC posted:In the early 1990s there was a real estate crash and Toronto actually suffered worse than the rest of the province. There's no reason it can't happen again. "Immigration" as a catch all to prop up demand in a falling market doesn't work. Bingo. The deniers are increasingly relying on a deus ex machina to save them from decreasing house prices. That isn't going to happen. etalian posted:It's all about cheap easy credit with lovely underwriting and people thinking they are going to hit the jackpot. Not that long ago, in a country not far away...
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Jan 26, 2015 03:33
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Cultural Imperial posted:Joking aside I think the BoC is referring to Canada's housing market as a whole achieving a soft landing. Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary will end up as smoking holes in the ground. This is my dream of home ownership.
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Jan 26, 2015 03:49
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:Mostly agree with all that. I would say don't get rid of govt. support for housing for at least the poor but do it in a way that prevents the Fan/Fred Mac shenanigans from happening all over again. I realize however such housing support may not be necessary in a market where housing prices are kept affordable so this is a bit of a nitpick. We need to end government subsidies for home ownership and suburban development. All it has gotten us is a huge, unfunded infrastructure liability, global warming, and a place for all the shitheads to live that isn't the molten center of the earth, where they truly belong.
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Jan 26, 2015 03:51
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I feel like I'm having a schizophrenic breakthrough, because I suddenly see all the connections between lovely 3hr commutes, inflated suburban property values, miserable Torontonians/905ers and the election of Rob Ford. It's.... beautiful.
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Jan 26, 2015 03:55
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Grand Theft Autobot posted:We need to end government subsidies for home ownership and suburban development.
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Jan 26, 2015 04:10
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Nah. If you implement policies diminishing housing's value as an 'investment', much like Japan, we'll be holding our bankers hostage from their profits
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Jan 26, 2015 04:24
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Cultural Imperial posted:Nah. If you implement policies diminishing housing's value as an 'investment', much like Japan, we'll be holding our bankers hostage from their profits well when you have asset deflation, it's really tough to buy the home as a investment BS argument. A somewhat interest article on the concept: http://freakonomics.com/2014/02/27/why-are-japanese-homes-disposable-a-new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-3/
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Jan 26, 2015 04:50
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etalian posted:well when you have asset deflation, it's really tough to buy the home as a investment BS argument.
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Jan 26, 2015 05:03
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:You'd think so but we've blown another bubble in the US within a few years of the previous bust. People aren't rational and are in general easily misled by modern marketing methods and spin that are used by the RE industry and banks. Or anybody really. It really is pretty amazing how successful modern marketing methods + spin has been at getting people to do things which clearly are against their personal best interests. Yeah this is my main reason for thinking capitalism is not a workable system, even with a lot of regulation. Marketing is far too powerful, it's basically mind control for who ever has the most money to spend on it. People are not rational actors nor do they have perfect information. Even well regulated systems end up just having political marketing dollars thrown at them until voters elect people who get rid of those regulations.
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Jan 26, 2015 05:08
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In a non-growth environment bubbles are a useful way to generate revenues. So while overall destructive for say, the middle-class, they provide an opportunity for short-term profits. This explains why the finance sector is not interested in regulations that prevent their occurance.
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Jan 26, 2015 05:09
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