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Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

You can also customize you condo! Pick from 3 different types of cabinets, pay extra for home theater wiring! When you buy pre-sale you get a deal, and customize your unit. Build equity before the building is even done!

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cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
People buy sight-unseen to speculate. They plan to sell their $40k down-payment for $60k in a year or two. They have no actual intention on buying or living in the unit.

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




xerxus posted:

Fear that prices would sky rocket when they can finally pay the rest of the cost?
Believing that the 'fair market price' would be 20-30% 3 years later when it's completed?

Fear that you won't find a good place in a prime location (near sky train/transit?)

Stupidity

Though the stupidity comes from a couple factors like unwillingness to do any kind of research, lack of willpower to live within your means, no understanding of personal finances, little to no planning for the future, and a complete lack of alternatives due to lovely city management.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

cowofwar posted:

People buy sight-unseen to speculate. They plan to sell their $40k down-payment for $60k in a year or two. They have no actual intention on buying or living in the unit.

This also happens with build slots for business jets.

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself
I own an 1,100 sqft 3br house in the city, which was built in 1914. I have a wife and baby, and everyone keeps asking me when we're moving to the burbs for a bigger house.

Do people not understand that human children are smaller than human adults?

Sassafras
Dec 24, 2004

by Athanatos
.

Sassafras fucked around with this message at 23:04 on Feb 2, 2015

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Furnaceface posted:

Stupidity

Though the stupidity comes from a couple factors like unwillingness to do any kind of research, lack of willpower to live within your means, no understanding of personal finances, little to no planning for the future, and a complete lack of alternatives due to lovely city management.

The other bit of stupidity is how the pre-sale price is equal or at many times much greater than a existing condo.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

etalian posted:

The other bit of stupidity is how the pre-sale price is equal or at many times much greater than a existing condo.

People are AMAZINGLY stupid on this specific issue. The developer will say "When these hit the market they will be priced at 380k but if you buy in the pre-sale it will only be 350k!!!" and people jump on it, thinking they're saying 30k. The building gets finished, the units are LISTED at 380, and end up selling for, you guessed it, 350k or so. Sometimes far less. But of course the developer puts the idea in peoples heads that not only will the units be more expensive after construction, but they'll all be sold out.

I should sell cans of corn this way. "The corn has only just been planted, harvest is still months away but if you buy now you can secure your can of corn for only $10, after harvesting and canning the corn will be $15 and it might all go in the pre-sale, if you want corn buy now!!!" and then set up a system of government backed debt for people to buy corn and have generations of people who lose their collective poo poo if corn prices aren't always going up. Do you know how many billions this country has tied up in corn loans? Do you know how many jobs the corn industry and associated financial services generate?? We need to make sure the price of corn keeps growing well above inflation, make it a matter of government policy.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Jan 29, 2015

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Baronjutter posted:

People are AMAZINGLY stupid on this specific issue. The developer will say "When these hit the market they will be priced at 380k but if you buy in the pre-sale it will only be 350k!!!" and people jump on it, thinking they're saying 30k. The building gets finished, the units are LISTED at 380, and end up selling for, you guessed it, 350k or so. Sometimes far less.

I liked this analogy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3IrWk0hy6Q

etalian fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Jan 29, 2015

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Congratulations this thread just discovered derivatives.

Too bad there's no OTC market for condo pre sales. loving :laugh:

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Also the other things that owns about a pre-sale is you basically locked up $40,000 to $50000 in deposit money that isn't earning you one cent during the 3-4 year construction period.

B33rChiller
Aug 18, 2011




Baronjutter posted:

"The corn has only just been planted, harvest is still months away but if you buy now you can secure your can of corn for only $10, after harvesting and canning the corn will be $15 and it might all go in the pre-sale, if you want corn buy now!!!"

Well now that you mention it.... It's not like they're making any more farm land... Sounds like a great investment. I better get in on the ground floor here. Put me down for a couple cases. This is going to make me so rich, flipping corn! There's no capital gains tax on canned corn if I keep it for 6 months right?

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

Literally poo from a diseased human butt

Baronjutter posted:

People are AMAZINGLY stupid on this specific issue. The developer will say "When these hit the market they will be priced at 380k but if you buy in the pre-sale it will only be 350k!!!" and people jump on it, thinking they're saying 30k. The building gets finished, the units are LISTED at 380, and end up selling for, you guessed it, 350k or so. Sometimes far less. But of course the developer puts the idea in peoples heads that not only will the units be more expensive after construction, but they'll all be sold out.

This is really popular in China because people usually only have to put a small portion of the money down to buy, and they can immediately start shopping for offers on the apartment. It's basically high leverage and call options combined with very low liquidity and unsophisticated buyers.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

on the left posted:

This is really popular in China because people usually only have to put a small portion of the money down to buy, and they can immediately start shopping for offers on the apartment. It's basically high leverage and call options combined with very low liquidity and unsophisticated buyers.

Don't kid yourself, this was happening in Vancouver and Toronto too. The government finally stepped in and sent the CRA around to look at the assignments. (And now condos aren't being sold out.)

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

Congratulations this thread just discovered derivatives.

Too bad there's no OTC market for condo pre sales. loving :laugh:

basically condo derivatives for stupid greedy morons

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

Literally poo from a diseased human butt

ocrumsprug posted:

Don't kid yourself, this was happening in Vancouver and Toronto too. The government finally stepped in and sent the CRA around to look at the assignments. (And now condos aren't being sold out.)

In the US, banks would blacklist condos that looked financially risky, and when that happened, the projects would completely disintegrate. Miami had some huge portion of unfinished condo buildings that were ineligible for bank loans at one point, it was a bloodbath.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

on the left posted:

In the US, banks would blacklist condos that looked financially risky, and when that happened, the projects would completely disintegrate. Miami had some huge portion of unfinished condo buildings that were ineligible for bank loans at one point, it was a bloodbath.

After the bubble the other issues is banks wouldn't want to give loans for complexes that had a massive numbers of new vacancies due to short sales and foreclosures too.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

on the left posted:

In the US, banks would blacklist condos that looked financially risky, and when that happened, the projects would completely disintegrate. Miami had some huge portion of unfinished condo buildings that were ineligible for bank loans at one point, it was a bloodbath.

http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/

It is written by the fellow that has been in a couple of the youtube videos listed on the last couple of pages.

http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/problems-at-the-printing-factory-lofts/10523

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos

etalian posted:

Also the other things that owns about a pre-sale is you basically locked up $40,000 to $50000 in deposit money that isn't earning you one cent during the 3-4 year construction period.
Why would you ever invest in the stock market for a pathetic 3% return when you can buy a $300k house and sell it for $325k three years later? That's $25k of sweet sweet profit.

fails to grasp compound interest and hidden real estate transaction fees for comparable returns of $27k vs $25k-$15k = $10k

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

cowofwar posted:

Why would you ever invest in the stock market for a pathetic 3% return when you can buy a $300k house and sell it for $325k three years later? That's $25k of sweet sweet profit.

fails to grasp compound interest and hidden real estate transaction fees for comparable returns of $27k vs $25k-$15k = $10k
Housing often superficially looks better than other asset types to unsophisticated investors because it's the only one where they can readily access leverage.

peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

Baronjutter posted:

People are AMAZINGLY stupid on this specific issue. The developer will say "When these hit the market they will be priced at 380k but if you buy in the pre-sale it will only be 350k!!!" and people jump on it, thinking they're saying 30k. The building gets finished, the units are LISTED at 380, and end up selling for, you guessed it, 350k or so. Sometimes far less. But of course the developer puts the idea in peoples heads that not only will the units be more expensive after construction, but they'll all be sold out.

I should sell cans of corn this way. "The corn has only just been planted, harvest is still months away but if you buy now you can secure your can of corn for only $10, after harvesting and canning the corn will be $15 and it might all go in the pre-sale, if you want corn buy now!!!" and then set up a system of government backed debt for people to buy corn and have generations of people who lose their collective poo poo if corn prices aren't always going up. Do you know how many billions this country has tied up in corn loans? Do you know how many jobs the corn industry and associated financial services generate?? We need to make sure the price of corn keeps growing well above inflation, make it a matter of government policy.

yeah this is basically a future and corn futures actually is something that can be traded

Ceciltron
Jan 11, 2007

Text BEEP to 43527 for the dancing robot!
Pillbug

peter banana posted:

yeah this is basically a future and corn futures actually is something that can be traded

Deregulation of futures, especially oil futures, in the US contributed heavily to the insane economic collapse of 2008

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Ceciltron posted:

Deregulation of futures, especially oil futures, in the US contributed heavily to the insane economic collapse of 2008

It did? Do elaborate.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I think ceciltron is making reference to the repeal of the glass stegall act by Clinton. But that didn't really have much to do with oil. I'd like to know what oil has to do with 2008.

Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)
I remember copper futures being a big deal in the liquidity crunch.

peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

Cultural Imperial posted:

I think ceciltron is making reference to the repeal of the glass stegall act by Clinton. But that didn't really have much to do with oil. I'd like to know what oil has to do with 2008.

Well, I remember in Matt Taibbi's Griftopia he spent a chapter talking about he ratcheting up of commodities pricing by speculators. It put gas prices out of reach for many people who were struggling already, to the point where if someone was working a low wage job, it was a better decision to lose their job instead of driving to it everyday.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Remember what else was crazy expensive? Rice. Philipino families were busting into Costco and buying as much rice as they could carry.

And then the bottom fell out. The economist also got caught up and had a big feature about the "end of cheap food???".

My point is, it's just mania. Extremely destructive, totally debased, pure mania. Totally bereft of rationality.

Kalenn Istarion
Nov 2, 2012

Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

I own an 1,100 sqft 3br house in the city, which was built in 1914. I have a wife and baby, and everyone keeps asking me when we're moving to the burbs for a bigger house.

Do people not understand that human children are smaller than human adults?

That's pretty cozy for a family with a baby (I have two kids and lived in a similarly sized place previously). Wait until you get a toy collection and they start walking.

Ceciltron
Jan 11, 2007

Text BEEP to 43527 for the dancing robot!
Pillbug

peter banana posted:

Well, I remember in Matt Taibbi's Griftopia he spent a chapter talking about he ratcheting up of commodities pricing by speculators. It put gas prices out of reach for many people who were struggling already, to the point where if someone was working a low wage job, it was a better decision to lose their job instead of driving to it everyday.
This was exactly the thing to which I was referring. The knock-on internationally to all that was food shortages internationally as agriculture stalled all over.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
Yup, the commodity bubble around '08 was spectacular. At one point a single person or fund had purchased 80% of the worlds cocoa reserves for example, and was hoarding them to drive up the value, this is also why most chocolate quality took a massive nose-dive from which it has yet to recover.

It turns out that turning everything into a financial instrument is a good way to bring your civilization to the brink of implosion. It wasn't mania, it was cold calculated greed.

EoRaptor
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

Baronjutter posted:

People are AMAZINGLY stupid on this specific issue. The developer will say "When these hit the market they will be priced at 380k but if you buy in the pre-sale it will only be 350k!!!" and people jump on it, thinking they're saying 30k. The building gets finished, the units are LISTED at 380, and end up selling for, you guessed it, 350k or so. Sometimes far less. But of course the developer puts the idea in peoples heads that not only will the units be more expensive after construction, but they'll all be sold out.

The developer will also do anything, anything to preserve listed sale price. There was a development up near Finch station that I pass by every day (The Palm) that provided a great example of this in action.

They never changed the advertised sale price, but once it was clear they wouldn't sell out before construction began, they started offering 'freebies'.

They offered better counter tops, then better flooring, then bathrooms, then better appliances, then you got home theaters, etc. Eventually, the signage posted offered 1 year of free condo fees and the developer would pay your transaction costs.

The price never budged, but if you added up all the discounts, they probably knocked 30k-50k off the actual 'cost' to try to get them sold. Way too much about the 'value' of a property is based on it's price, and nothing else (bank loans, mortgages, speculators) and until that get sfixed, we are in for a bigger and bigger bubble.

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

Cultural Imperial posted:

Remember what else was crazy expensive? Rice. Philipino families were busting into Costco and buying as much rice as they could carry.

And then the bottom fell out. The economist also got caught up and had a big feature about the "end of cheap food???".

My point is, it's just mania. Extremely destructive, totally debased, pure mania. Totally bereft of rationality.

This is the problem with futures. They were invented and adopted for very good and mostly altruistic reasons, but the sole purpose of them these days is to create bubbles/money.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
CADUSD: 0.78927 and falling.

Strong Stable Economy! :canada:

mike-
Jul 9, 2004

Phillipians 1:21

Saltin posted:

This is the problem with futures. They were invented and adopted for very good and mostly altruistic reasons, but the sole purpose of them these days is to create bubbles/money.

This is pretty hyperbolic... There are two sides to every futures contract, so for every speculator there is a hedger.

Kalenn Istarion
Nov 2, 2012

Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

mike- posted:

This is pretty hyperbolic... There are two sides to every futures contract, so for every speculator there is a hedger.

Or two speculators, or two hedgers

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

mike- posted:

This is pretty hyperbolic... There are two sides to every futures contract, so for every speculator there is a hedger.

Futures and derivatives are meant to price in risk so that it was quantifiable. It is pretty clear that it is being used, in some cases like fuel and agriculture, to create that risk for profit.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I disagree about that statement about derivatives being evil. Seriously, blame Clinton for repealing glass stegall. Worst loving decision ever made

Mexplosivo
Mar 8, 2007

The monetary system is not ratified by society yet it shapes and dictates our entire existence...

mike- posted:

This is pretty hyperbolic... There are two sides to every futures contract, so for every speculator there is a hedger.

You know whats hyperbolic? those commodity price charts from all that speculation that has no relevance to the real economy at all!

mike-
Jul 9, 2004

Phillipians 1:21

Kalenn Istarion posted:

Or two speculators, or two hedgers

Can you provide an example of a futures contract with speculators on each side?

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Kalenn Istarion
Nov 2, 2012

Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

mike- posted:

Can you provide an example of a futures contract with speculators on each side?

You're joking right

Like

Literally every available contract can be bought or sold openly and there's tracking of net spec positions. The tone of the market is often measured by looking at how the net spec buy on a contract has changed. Market participants are required to register as a hedger or speculator, so it's pretty easy to know who's buying what. This isn't visible to external parties on any given contract but that doesn't matter.

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