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This is borderline off topic for this thread, but I thought I'd ask... I'm working on writing a little program that pulls specific stock quotes from a list of companies I specify every couple minutes, and if the stock has an abrupt move (say, 2%) within a certain period of time (say 30 minutes), it will send me an alert. My question is, it's proving a little more complicated to write than I thought, so before I get all crazy with it...does something like this exist already? Etrade has something like this, but it seems like it's only for a daily % change.
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Feb 10, 2015 02:38
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Regulatory pressure? I would think the planners I work with wouldn't be freaking out so much about coal shut downs reducing available capacity if they thought it was a temporary issue, but I'm just an operator so I only get bits and pieces. Im not even allowed to invest in most of the energy industry.
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Feb 10, 2015 02:38
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Gm has a high beta, don't just trust a free source that gives you a beta without any indication of how it is calculated. Beta is a measure of volatility as compared to an index. This is a different "volatility" than what you would determine by black scholes in option pricing or by calculating the standard deviation of returns over whatever period. Eyeballing volatility is silly.
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Feb 10, 2015 02:50
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Anyone know of a free stock screener that lets you screen for ev/fcf or ev/ebitda? I used to use the yahoo java stock screen which I loved to death but they shut it down, and their other stock screener sucks compared to it. I found unclestock but the website ain't even up half the time, and won't save my screen, and its a pain in the dick to enter in all my screen metrics every time. My only other option seems to be paying $40 a month for a stock screener :\ IM SUCH A CHEAP rear end
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Feb 10, 2015 04:34
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Daedalus Esquire posted:Regulatory pressure? yes planners aren't political theorists and know just as much big picture stuff as the experts who advised the president that Solyndra was superawesome and worthy of him risking his reputation...planners are in a panic, and nobody thinks clearly in a panic. regulatory pressure is as permanent as, say, any other idiotic political football, like the scourge of steroids in baseball, or the fallacious claims that Toyota made cars that magically accelerated for no reason...congress has as much backbone as a ribbon in the wind and as much brains as a kitten. all those coal union guys who voted for the guy who destroyed their industry? Guess what? They're in play. And their votes can be bought with a few pen strokes that will kneecap the EPA also, "temporary" to someone in an industry in flux means "before I lose my job"
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Feb 10, 2015 04:35
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mike- posted:Beta is a measure of volatility as compared to an index. I agree with all of your post, and you got me here. I wouldn't call beta a measure of volatility, but I can see why people would.
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Feb 10, 2015 04:47
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Broccoli Cat posted:yes So how quick is that? When it becomes unprofitable for a company to employ people they cut them pretty quick? Reversing actions in this industry isn't a quick turn around. Just getting plants out of a mothball state is a several year process. I get industry outlook emails from SNL every day, and they are pretty grim. Maybe look into them since they collect data globally and analyze it. Most of your evidence is hand waving away government interference, an inference that the EPA is gonna get its rear end handed to it, and that a major industry trend that the experts think will continue will reverse despite a global push towards a reduction in emissions and harnessing cheap renewables. Hell, utilities are already trying to get approval to shift their costs into a front loaded service charge in exchange for power selling closer to its actual market cost since most of their fixed costs are covered by consumption and solar and other energy efficient equipment is seriously harming the amount of power sold residentially. :Edit: I realize I'm not gonna convince you and frankly I don't really care, but anyone else, make sure to use your due diligence before jumping into any positions in coal. Daedalus Esquire fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Feb 10, 2015 |
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Feb 10, 2015 13:34
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Here are some robinhood codes, not sure how hard these are to come by or if they're worth posting, but here you go. Just paste the code onto the end of this link - https://www.robinhood.com/signup?invite_code= ASSWGLDS PTAZOKDA VAP4HKTJ TSQPDVGT V6YKJP76 AUGELAVJ L8FXD7EA VG5JTWXA TE68TYHN YVMCJWZJ 8TYLPGN6 TBVS3E4W
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Feb 10, 2015 14:59
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Daedalus Esquire posted:So how quick is that? When it becomes unprofitable for a company to employ people they cut them pretty quick? Reversing actions in this industry isn't a quick turn around. Just getting plants out of a mothball state is a several year process. no, you're absolutely right about everything, I'm not saying you're wrong at all but I did as much due diligence as is legally possible, and last year was the worst year for a company like ANR, which means if tomorrow's numbers don't spell bankruptcy, and I'm fairly confident they won't, then that means we likely just bounced off the bottom last week. and that means, barring a LU / NT -style criminal disaster, we're looking at slow upside with increasing speed over the next couple years...it'll never come back totally, but the attempt at ruining the industry was an ideological overreaction exacerbated by the fear/greed and general ignorance of the market edit: not tomorrow, Thursday...I forgot it was only tuesday today. Broccoli Cat fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Feb 10, 2015 |
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Feb 10, 2015 16:30
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greasyhands posted:Here are some robinhood codes, not sure how hard these are to come by or if they're worth posting, but here you go. Just paste the code onto the end of this link - https://www.robinhood.com/signup?invite_code= Took YVMCJWZJ. Thanks.
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Feb 10, 2015 18:47
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EAB posted:Anyone know of a free stock screener that lets you screen for ev/fcf or ev/ebitda? I used to use the yahoo java stock screen which I loved to death but they shut it down, and their other stock screener sucks compared to it. For an "I'm a cheap rear end' option take a look at http://finviz.com/ (It's what I use) I got out of CSIQ this morning on the (possibly faulty) logic that if I can realize a 12% gain in a ~30 day window I should do so...
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Feb 10, 2015 19:02
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RaoulDuke12 posted:This is borderline off topic for this thread, but I thought I'd ask...
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Feb 10, 2015 19:54
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Bhaal posted:I got out of CSIQ this morning on the (possibly faulty) logic that if I can realize a 12% gain in a ~30 day window I should do so... I got out of JKS a while back with a big double-digit gain. I felt really good about it until I saw it go up to about 10 times what I had paid for it. But you never know these things at the time. I wouldn't get too bent out of shape about a double-digit gain. It beats the alternative.
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Feb 10, 2015 20:22
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Well, would you have sold after a month if you were sitting on a 12% loss?
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Feb 10, 2015 21:21
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Nice pop in First Solar this afternoon after Apple announced an $850m deal with them for a solar farm. Apple should consider just buying First Solar for $6b.
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Feb 10, 2015 22:20
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Are y'all in the same solar stocks coincidentally?
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Feb 10, 2015 22:23
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I'm interviewing for a job tomorrow at a trading firm that specializes in gap trading. My job isn't specifically dealing with that, but I want to seem knowledgable. What's "gap trading" in a nutshell?
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Feb 10, 2015 22:35
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Dominoes posted:Are y'all in the same solar stocks coincidentally? I've looked into it and gambled by spreading the money over VSLR, FSLR and twice both combined into CSIQ. I feel more comfortable about that then hedging my gains with some solar fund.
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Feb 10, 2015 23:52
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Dominoes posted:What trouble are you running into? This sounds like an easy project. specifically, I'm teaching myself Python and this is something I want to work towards, since it kind of gives me a goal. So the troubles I'm running into are everything and it's going to take me a long time to figure out, so if I have the functionality of another tool to compare it to, that would be helpful, is all. I'm not naive enough to think that someone else hasn't thought of this and built a tool for accomplishing it.
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Feb 11, 2015 00:50
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Dominoes posted:Are y'all in the same solar stocks coincidentally? I'm sure they are. 
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Feb 11, 2015 01:23
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Broccoli Cat posted:I'm sure they are. Feel free to post that a thousand times on Thursday if ANR shoots up.
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Feb 11, 2015 03:18
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LLCoolJD posted:Feel free to post that a thousand times on Thursday if ANR shoots up. quote:The latest sign of the deepening crisis hitting the US coal industry came on Friday, when Alpha Natural Resources announced that it planned to idle production at three mines in West Virginia and cut jobs at two more, affecting about 91 workers in total.
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Feb 11, 2015 03:25
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Liam Emsa posted:I'm interviewing for a job tomorrow at a trading firm that specializes in gap trading. My job isn't specifically dealing with that, but I want to seem knowledgable. What's "gap trading" in a nutshell? Here is a quick rundown from stock charts http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:gap_trading_strategies I will assume this won't be the fund's main strategy and if it is I will assume again the bulk of their methodology revolves around imbalance trades. http://dynamichedge.com/2010/08/05/nyse-imbalances/
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Feb 11, 2015 03:41
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While the case for coal long term is suspect, I did get out of my ACI calls earlier this week at .2 vs the .1 I grabbed. Worked out!
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Feb 11, 2015 04:21
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I was trying to find something available to the public that shows some of the same stuff our analysts have been showing. EIA has a ton of good stuff. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf Go to page 150 and look at the maps. I was a little off on the location of the coal retirements from last year but it's still in PJMs territory even though it's not in Penn. Here is some interactive data, where you can see 2001 to 2013 (2014 isn't added yet, will probably be a few months, but there was zero new coal generation added in 2014). It's currently on the coal plants by state map and if you compare it to the link above, you will see that those planned shut downs happen to be in the densest coal relying areas of the county. http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data...0&datecode=2013 If you are planning to do any investing based on the energy industry it's a wealth of unbiased historical information. Daedalus Esquire fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Feb 11, 2015 |
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Feb 11, 2015 05:29
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LLCoolJD posted:Feel free to post that a thousand times on Thursday if ANR shoots up. hah! I have a different one for that which may be even more idiotic but sadly, I think the relatively good stock news has already been factored into ANR and people will be taking profits. the thing is, though, once bankruptcy is off the table...well...is there any downward pressure at that point? seems maybe not, so -  no guts no glory, gentlemen!
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Feb 11, 2015 16:34
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Daedalus Esquire posted:I was trying to find something available to the public that shows some of the same stuff our analysts have been showing. EIA has a ton of good stuff. Specifically look at page 152, plants planning to retire between Dec 2014 and Nov 2015. The argument for solar stocks was that solar was acting as if it was coupled to the oil price crash, even though oil and solar are only indirectly related, indicating that solar was underpriced. Buying at that price was a good buy and anyone who got in at 19 when we were jerking off over it and exits now at 27 is taking a 42% profit within a short time frame. The best argument for coal so far is "no guts, no glory."
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Feb 11, 2015 17:47
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I prefer to think of coal as more expensive natural gas with a side of acid rain, global warming, and respiratory illness.
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Feb 11, 2015 18:04
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I think the only upside to coal is the potential export market. As much as we in the US and Europe love to dump coal for NG or renewables, Asia is still heavily dependent on coal for their rising electricity production. I'm not interested in getting into coal so I don't know how much less a US miner would make if he had to sell it on the world market vs the domestic, but that's what I'd be focusing on if I were so inclined. I'd be interested to see something similar to the EIA report but with worldwide data.
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Feb 11, 2015 18:09
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If you dig around on EIA they have some global info. Mostly import/export data though. I don't think they would have much on foreign generation mix.
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Feb 11, 2015 18:16
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Coal can't be transported by pipelines, so it has to be moved by heavy rail or ship. It can't be pumped from shore to ship and back, either, so it has to be loaded by heavy equipment. It is not as standardized in quality and composition as light sweet crude, either. Coal can be processed into coke first, which is a more efficient fuel, but cokers are filthy horrible places much worse than oil refineries. You can do the poo poo they're doing up in canada and "gassify" it to make it a hell of a lot easier to use, but now you're directly competing with natural gas, which has seen a massive increase in production in the last decade (due in no small part to fracking technology, which is not nearly as safe as has been promoted and will very likely face regulatory restriction in the future as the evidence that fracking routinely destroys aquifers increases). Basically coal sucks and is only so widespread because there's a hell of a lot of it around. China burns a hell of a lot of coal, but it also produces a hell of a lot of coal, in no small part due to its incredibly cheap manual labor force. Basically, a quick look at the facts makes me think the US is not going to compete effectively with China for coal exported to Asia. If China starts running short on coal, I think it's more likely to focus on oil, gas, and nuclear for additional energy production, than to start importing a lot of coal from the US.
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Feb 11, 2015 18:29
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3 more robinhood invites. If anyone is curious, I'm pretty sure they give you 1 invite for every $1,000 you transfer in JYTGEEWY JC4YERNH KBE9FPZA
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Feb 11, 2015 18:41
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I have some shares of ORB that have been delisted as part of the merger with ATK into OA. I should be receiving 0.449 shares of OA per share of ORB with cash paid out for any fractionals. Do I have to actually do anything to act on this? I see in my portfolio right now the ORB holding has just changed to a serial number with the information for the last trade of ORB showing. Not sure if I just am waiting for something to process or if there is something I need to elect to maintain my shares of OA.
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Feb 11, 2015 18:48
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Nephzinho it might vary from brokerage to brokerage (so it'd help if you mentioned yours) but when that same scenario happened to a company I was holding back in, uh, 2002 or so, TDAMeritrade just took care of all of it for me and I didn't have to do anything.
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Feb 11, 2015 18:53
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Elephanthead posted:global warming no longer a problem, jack 
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Feb 11, 2015 18:57
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Leperflesh posted:Nephzinho it might vary from brokerage to brokerage (so it'd help if you mentioned yours) but when that same scenario happened to a company I was holding back in, uh, 2002 or so, TDAMeritrade just took care of all of it for me and I didn't have to do anything. E*Trade. Thanks.
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Feb 11, 2015 19:05
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Broccoli Cat posted:no longer a problem, jack The cost to make the coal clean is more then burning $100 bills for fuel. Ask me how I know, thanks Indiana Regulator Commision for letting Duke double my electric rate.
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Feb 11, 2015 20:03
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KING earnings tomorrow during the trading day. I don't own any more equity (might change by tomorrow), but I do have a 20 option call spread for Feb 20th that I bought many moons ago. 11.54 -> 16.54. I paid $3k for it and it is currently worth ~$4.5k. It could be worth $10k if its above the $16.54 price next Friday. Fingers crossed. I think we could see another positive quarter tomorrow, and really an inert quarter is about all this company needs to justify its stock price considering the assumptions built into the valuation are profit declines. It's PE is about 7.5, and its EV/EBITDA is ~5, both very very low obviously so the conventional wisdom is that this company will slowly trail off its earnings. If we see any type of growth, perhaps in China, this stock could easily head back towards 20+ which would be a more normal multiplier for a small-growth company (a still low P/E of 10-11). Analysts expect EPS for the 4th quarter to be .47/share, which would be an earnings decline from .56/share in quarter 3. So again, a decline is what is expected. As of right now, KING is the #2 grosser on iOS + Play according to AppAnnie...recently passed by SuperCell due to the ginormous success of Clash of Clans. But Candy Crush Soda Saga (the sequel) was a successful launch looking at the app statistics. It's still ahead of Candy Crush (and Candy Crush is still on all of the charts). Soda should be a significant source of revenue as KING continues to diversify revenues beyond Candy Crush. On the topic of SuperCell, it's unclear how much business is being taken away from KING games and devoted towards Clash of Clans (and the copy cat Game of War). I imagine it's not insignificant. We'll find out tomorrow I suppose. Another thing to bear in mind...in the last earnings call, the management also made mention of the fact that they're going to develop a broader range of games in 2015 beyond the match/casual games that make up their entire current portfolio. They bought a Clash of Clans-esque game developer last year, so there could be some sort of launch for that or multiple games of that nature. It's unclear if they're going to build off of existing IP (Candy Crush), or develop brand new IP. This is in my opinion a very positive development because of how inexpensively KING is able to churn out games, and not just poo poo games, entertaining ones that are fun to play. One final thought is that their advertising ramped up in 4th quarter I noticed (just from watching a few TV shows and I rarely pay attention to commercials), so we could see advertising expenses rise considerably. How that factored into sales remains to be seen. But it's not like this company is spending willy-nilly. In the 3rd quarter, this company had 0 debt, and a very large amount of cash. KING has been a very tightly run, money-making machine over the past few quarters. They don't seem keen on wasting money like their counterparts at Zynga. I am not overly concerned about their choosing to do advertising, but it does pose an earnings risk if it failed to drive sales. I think while there is downside risk here - and it could easily head back towards 10-12 with a disappointing quarter that sees sales/profit/margin decline beyond what analysts expect - I think the stock is more weighted in favor of upside just because of how much cash they continue to generate. Anything in-line or any type of beat could send the stock upwards, and there is reason to believe that Soda could drive a beat. There is still significant shorting of this stock, and one thing shorts don't want to do is hang around for months in whatever the short-equivalent of a value trap is. They want easy money. Anyone have any thoughts or comments? Would love to hear from shorts. Arkane fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Feb 11, 2015 |
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Feb 11, 2015 20:04
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I have no idea, but KING bought my companies product therefor I am buying 1 share of them! 
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Feb 11, 2015 22:16
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With this new Robinhood thing out, investing in stocks has interested me a bit. I don't want to dive into the deep end before knowing anymore. Are the links / books listed in the OP still a good place to start?
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Feb 12, 2015 11:00
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