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Oracle posted:Expect a lot of faux-concern about her advanced age and mental acuity and a lot of significant pauses where they call her a bi...tter old woman. to which she can reply "you idiots ran john mccain with sara loving palin as the bottom of the ticket you nitwits" and will be completely right
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Mar 2, 2015 17:53
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Look Hillary's going to win in 2016 and she'll either have a Congress that does nothing or a Congress that does nothing but pass poo poo she'll veto the gently caress out of. SCOTUS remains 5-4 neocon shitfuck as Ginsburg gets replaced after an absolute horrorshow of a nomination process while Scalia and Kennedy hang on. hillary still has 2 of her 3 free kills left. Obamas trouble was that he used up all of his fighting as a child soldier in east africa Casimir Radon posted:I always figured Hillary's chances were damaged by all the baggage that comes from being poo poo on by the right wing press for 25ish years. Jokes about her being a witch and whatnot are more or less pop culture at this point. Maybe I'm unreasonably afraid of a college dropout, and all around retard like Walker winning, but it's insane he's still governor of Wisconsin. In Wisconsin he has a massively powerful local machine that drives vast turnout among a very specific and hyper-conservative part of the state. Those Milwaukree suburbs account for his entire margin of victory and then some. In a national primary (much less a general) he will not have big mommy talk-radio to coddle him. He will be facing equally powerful machines elsewhere, run by people who fight a lot dirtier and harder than the opposition he's used to. He will have to answer for the national-level Republican policy and talk people through his terrible resume without the benefit of ironclad local electioneering. Anyway, delegates come state-by-state and when you look at a map there is not really a clear path to the republican nomination for him. The South won't like him because he is a bland, smarmy-looking fucker who does not at all appeal to the southron taste for political theatre. The Northeast and west coast won't like him because he is an idiot hayseed. Where does he expand his appeal outside the Midwest?
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Mar 2, 2015 18:01
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Karnegal posted:I mean, we had an idiot GOP governor on the ticket a couple elections ago and it didn't pan out too well for her (in the election itself, at least). Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Will we see any establishment republicans call Hillary a bitch or worse? PupsOfWar posted:In Wisconsin he has a massively powerful local machine that drives vast turnout among a very specific and hyper-conservative part of the state. Those Milwaukree suburbs account for his entire margin of victory and then some. Casimir Radon fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Mar 2, 2015 |
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Mar 2, 2015 18:05
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Whatever happened to Paul Ryan running in 2016?
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Mar 2, 2015 18:11
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:The Dems still need a compelling platform to turn out minorities to win, though Not necessarily; just ask Terry McAuliffe. The real issue is GOTV.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:18
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comes along bort posted:Not necessarily; just ask Terry McAuliffe. Ah yeah I forgot about him. Though I'd have figured that 2013 would have had worse turnout than 2014, the dude did a decent enough job of reassembling the Obama coalition
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Mar 2, 2015 18:20
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Whatever happened to Paul Ryan running in 2016? paul ryan swam back to his ancestral spawning grounds to feed and prepare for mating season seen here harassing a page: 
PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Mar 2, 2015 |
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Mar 2, 2015 18:23
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comes along bort posted:Not necessarily; just ask Terry McAuliffe. Careful with that. He ran against a horror show and made his margins in previously GOP white and Asian immigrant suburbs in Fairfax and Loudoun. That's what changed from 2009. Also, there was a noteworthy 3rd party candidate.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:26
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Whatever happened to Paul Ryan running in 2016? I've always thought that part of the reason the Republicans lost Florida was because of him. I doubt they'll want him on the ticket again. He's not the golden boy they want him to be. People just don't seem to buy what he's selling.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:35
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UnoriginalMind posted:I've always thought that part of the reason the Republicans lost Florida was because of him. I doubt they'll want him on the ticket again. He's not the golden boy they want him to be. People just don't seem to buy what he's selling. He's good for duping centrist Beltway idiots, but that's the limits of his appeal I'm guessing.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:36
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:He's good for duping centrist Beltway idiots, but that's the limits of his appeal I'm guessing. I'm a little shocked, honestly. I didn't think people would see through his budget proposals (i.e. slash, burn, and gently caress the poor) that well.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:38
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De Nomolos posted:Careful with that. He ran against a horror show and made his margins in previously GOP white and Asian immigrant suburbs in Fairfax and Loudoun. That's what changed from 2009. Also, there was a noteworthy 3rd party candidate. True, but it's hard to really pinpoint how much of a spoiler effect Sarvis had. Also McAuliffe wouldn't have been able to run up the margins in NOVA/Tidewater/Richmond without an effective ground campaign. Look at Hagan in NC last year. Her loss was in large part because of not doing the legwork, and cannibalizing election day votes through early voting.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:40
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Ken Cuccinelli was straight-up unelectable, so McAuliffe is not a good example. On the subject of Scott Walker, I'm not even that afraid of general GOP stupidity. Republicans already look incompetent on foreign policy, imagine what Dems can do to Walker when he does something like compare ISIL to unions again. That's vulnerable from several directions (why do you think American workers are terrorists? do you think you can just outlaw ISIL?), and in the general election the GOP won't be able to shield him from his own idiocy like they can at a local level. As far as the GOP losing their votes due to being old and rich and white and nothing else, that's not going to happen. There's plenty of horrible, hateful, reactionary energy in the American people. They'll have to make minor adjustments, but they're not going to suddenly start welcoming minorities into the party with open arms. They'll just find more white American anger to capitalize on. There will always be a strong conservative element in politics, and they're not a whole lot different now than they used to be. Let me show you something:  Notice anything similar between this and contemporary rhetoric around racial issues like Eric Garner, Ferguson, Trayvon Martin, and civil rights leaders like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton? 50 years from now we're still going to be hearing the crazed, unintelligible ravings of American conservatives, just from new mouths.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:43
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If Paul Ryan couldn't sell his poo poo to the American people then Scott Walker has already failed.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:43
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PupsOfWar posted:hillary still has 2 of her 3 free kills left. How many of the big GOP donors like the Kochs and Adelson are long on Walker? I recall some news murmurs about a big money coalition to make sure Randpaul loses the primary but I don't know if he's buried the hatchet with those folks or even why he rubs them the wrong way. And don't underestimate the propensity of suburban belugas to just vote for the R by force of habit. If they voted for Romney, they'll vote for Walker. He's got enough appeal to the Palin types who operate on pure spitefulness and "sending a message" because he's such a heel, he's got the proper chromosome/melanin balance, and he'll have a loving busload of money behind him. If there's one thing I would say is a liability for Hillary in such an environment, it's having a history at all. Everything can be warped into a hit piece and everything will be. Anyone under 40 or so is too young to have been significantly involved in politics the last time they fired up the machine against a Clinton, it isn't like there's as much fatigue with that line of messaging as a lot of people think. By the way, that reliable base effect is one thing you can't really play the south park game about between the two parties - Dem voters will sit at home and be pissed about their pet issues while GOP voters will wheel themselves to the polls even if it meant voting for Mitt Romney so long as it was a vote against a D.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:45
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:If Paul Ryan couldn't sell his poo poo to the American people then Scott Walker has already failed. I'm not sure how comparable the two are; the former was more of a straight-up randroid while Walker is just a boring Reagan wannabe.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:45
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Mineaiki posted:Ken Cuccinelli was straight-up unelectable, so McAuliffe is not a good example. That's why it won't ever be some moment where the GOP looks at itself and says "jeeze we're really a bunch of assholes" that brings them back to moderation, it will be slow but inevitable demographic shifts instead. And as we've seen with Voter ID laws, they'll fight it until the very end.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:48
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:I'm not sure how comparable the two are; the former was more of a straight-up randroid while Walker is just a boring Reagan wannabe. Boring is probably Walker's greatest weakness. His opponents in elections here have been less charismatic than he is, because the Democratic Part of Wisconsin can't find a candidate for their drat life. So he wins by energizing the WOW counties (those that surround Milwaukee) and that's about it. He doesn't have any big policy achievements to speak of, save for Act 10, and that's not something you can sell to people nationally, I think. Dude's just dull. There will be no way to market him.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:52
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:I'm not sure how comparable the two are; the former was more of a straight-up randroid while Walker is just a boring Reagan wannabe. Fortunately, Joe Biden had a plan. 
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Mar 2, 2015 18:56
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FAUXTON posted:he's got the proper chromosome/melanin balance Melanin? Sure. The other thing? Not sure.
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Mar 2, 2015 18:56
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FAUXTON posted:How many of the big GOP donors like the Kochs and Adelson are long on Walker? I recall some news murmurs about a big money coalition to make sure Randpaul loses the primary but I don't know if he's buried the hatchet with those folks or even why he rubs them the wrong way. I know Walker is the current Koch vassal, but are they really that set on him or will they flock to whoever gives them the best shot in the General once he's said or done a few stupid things on the campaign trail?
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Mar 2, 2015 18:56
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PupsOfWar posted:I know Walker is the current Koch vassal, but are they really that set on him or will they flock to whoever gives them the best shot in the General once he's said or done a few stupid things on the campaign trail? Tough call. The Koch Brothers are pretty idealistic folks. At the same time, they're throwing enough money into this that they'll want to see a return on investment. Personally, I think they'll bail when Walker does.
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Mar 2, 2015 19:37
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:They're both snake oil salesmen. The difference is that Ryan actually had skill with political rhetoric. I think that was the only time I've ever heard the word "malarkey" used in a political debate. It was fantastic.
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Mar 2, 2015 19:48
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Alter Ego posted:I think that was the only time I've ever heard the word "malarkey" used in a political debate. The greatest part about it was the way the media built up expectations for an easy Ryan win, with the old "Heh, gaffemaster Joe's gonna mess this one up something terrible!" chestnut. I'm sure the whole thing had a pretty minimal effect on the actual election, but it was definitely some of the best political theater of that election cycle, and that's saying a lot.
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Mar 2, 2015 19:57
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UnoriginalMind posted:Tough call. The Koch Brothers are pretty idealistic folks. At the same time, they're throwing enough money into this that they'll want to see a return on investment. Personally, I think they'll bail when Walker does. Is Walker smart enough to read the writing on the wall, though? He's got a lot of early name recognition in non-Wisconsin places, but will the GOP primary process manage to unveil his inadequacies as liabilities? Or will it just endear him as a good ol' boy who isn't too bright but sure loves America?
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Mar 2, 2015 20:00
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Oracle posted:Expect a lot of faux-concern about her advanced age and mental acuity and a lot of significant pauses where they call her a bi...tter old woman. I expect the word "hysterical" will soon become much more popular among right wing commentators.
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Mar 2, 2015 20:02
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FAUXTON posted:How many of the big GOP donors like the Kochs and Adelson are long on Walker? I recall some news murmurs about a big money coalition to make sure Randpaul loses the primary but I don't know if he's buried the hatchet with those folks or even why he rubs them the wrong way. So it's easy, really. We progressive voters pin our hopes on Hillary winning. All we have to do is win the GOTV race. Let's just all hope that there's not some terrible crisis or catastrophe at the end of Obama's term that shifts the country just a few points away to the right when election day comes around, right? Does that all sound reasonable?
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Mar 2, 2015 20:05
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FAUXTON posted:And don't underestimate the propensity of suburban belugas to just vote for the R by force of habit. If they voted for Romney, they'll vote for Walker. He's got enough appeal to the Palin types who operate on pure spitefulness and "sending a message" because he's such a heel, he's got the proper chromosome/melanin balance, and he'll have a loving busload of money behind him. If there's one thing I would say is a liability for Hillary in such an environment, it's having a history at all. Everything can be warped into a hit piece and everything will be. Anyone under 40 or so is too young to have been significantly involved in politics the last time they fired up the machine against a Clinton, it isn't like there's as much fatigue with that line of messaging as a lot of people think. Well, every year the demographics shift a little more in our favor.
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Mar 2, 2015 20:09
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Well, every year the demographics shift a little more in our favor. 
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Mar 2, 2015 20:12
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comes along bort posted:
Excuse me, could you elaborate on what "legwork" the Hagan campaign didn't do?
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Mar 2, 2015 21:22
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They'll go out kicking and screaming, but they will go out.
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Mar 2, 2015 21:25
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Quidam Viator posted:So it's easy, really. We progressive voters pin our hopes on Hillary winning. All we have to do is win the GOTV race. Let's just all hope that there's not some terrible crisis or catastrophe at the end of Obama's term that shifts the country just a few points away to the right when election day comes around, right? Does that all sound reasonable? No because I'd rather see a decisive victory that leaves zero question of what the goddamn score is. No hopes-pinning, no banking on GOTV, I want to see exactly how and why and when the GOP will lose the goddamn election and I want it to be decisive enough to impart the kind of psychic anguish the 2008/12 elections did, because I don't think Hillary will be as patient with their poo poo once in office and out of campaign mode as Obama has been.
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Mar 2, 2015 21:30
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So Rick Perry has done something I approve of, created the most kickass business card in history. He went into the wrong business.
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Mar 2, 2015 21:47
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FAUXTON posted:No because I'd rather see a decisive victory that leaves zero question of what the goddamn score is. No hopes-pinning, no banking on GOTV, I want to see exactly how and why and when the GOP will lose the goddamn election and I want it to be decisive enough to impart the kind of psychic anguish the 2008/12 elections did, because I don't think Hillary will be as patient with their poo poo once in office and out of campaign mode as Obama has been.
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Mar 2, 2015 21:54
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baw posted:The problem is that because of demographics, at some point the GOP is going to have to finally expel the conservative wing if they want to remain nationally relevant. It's just a matter of how soon it will happen, and how bloody it will be. The problem is that this would incvolve short term losses in excahnge for long term gains. Every single conservative will start calling you a heretic and trying to burn you the second you say the word losses. There is no room in capitalist dogma for any form of loss, no mattwer what gains could be made, because the losses are happening now, and the gains aren't. SpiderHyphenMan posted:Look Hillary's going to win in 2016 and she'll either have a Congress that does nothing or a Congress that does nothing but pass poo poo she'll veto the gently caress out of. SCOTUS remains 5-4 neocon shitfuck as Ginsburg gets replaced after an absolute horrorshow of a nomination process while Scalia and Kennedy hang on. Kennedy could die. He's only 3 years younger than Ginsburg. Replacing the swing voter with a left voter would tip the balance back where its needed. Casimir Radon posted:I always figured Hillary's chances were damaged by all the baggage that comes from being poo poo on by the right wing press for 25ish years. Jokes about her being a witch and whatnot are more or less pop culture at this point. Maybe I'm unreasonably afraid of a college dropout, and all around retard like Walker winning, but it's insane he's still governor of Wisconsin. As goes Fox News, so goes the nation, as the successful campaigns of Presidents McCain and Romney over their mocked and feared opponents show us. Look, as much as D&D thinks she is literally Nixon in a wig, the sort of people who really despise her are the same people who truly despise Obama. Jerry Manderbilt posted:The Dems still need a compelling platform to turn out minorities to win, though; just relying on the GOP being horrifying wasn't good enough last year. Then the qualifier you missed is "they need a compelling platform to turn out minorities in midterms". But they need a platform to turn out everyone in midterms. Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Will we see any establishment republicans call Hillary a bitch or worse? I'm thinking we'll see the opitcs of calling a grandmother the C word.
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Mar 2, 2015 21:58
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Quidam Viator posted:So it's easy, really. We progressive voters pin our hopes on Hillary winning. All we have to do is win the GOTV race. Let's just all hope that there's not some terrible crisis or catastrophe at the end of Obama's term that shifts the country just a few points away to the right when election day comes around, right? Does that all sound reasonable? FAUXTON posted:No because I'd rather see a decisive victory that leaves zero question of what the goddamn score is. No hopes-pinning, no banking on GOTV, I want to see exactly how and why and when the GOP will lose the goddamn election and I want it to be decisive enough to impart the kind of psychic anguish the 2008/12 elections did, because I don't think Hillary will be as patient with their poo poo once in office and out of campaign mode as Obama has been. To me, it all depends on merging all of the old-school Clinton support that still exists (Bill Clinton carried Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Missouri in 1992 and 1996, something that's unfathomable today) with the new Obama coalition. If Hillary (and Bill) can pull that off, and I think they can, then you're gonna see a hell of a drubbing of the Republicans. Basically, 2016 will answer the question of just how scary the "scary black man" in the White House is to On a side note, bombing the gently caress out of ISIL seems to be working very well, so at least "ISIL's taking over the Middle East, everybody panic" won't be the front-and-center foreign policy issue in 2016. Instead, Republicans get to dance around what they would do in the Middle East that isn't "start Iraq War 3/Invade Syria/Invade Iran", with the constant reminder of Iraq War 1 and 2 aka Jeb Bush sitting right there on stage. 
fade5 fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Mar 2, 2015 |
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Mar 2, 2015 21:59
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If ISIS has been stopped without any American boots on the ground by the DNC, expect that to be the new "Osama Bin Laden is dead."
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Mar 2, 2015 22:01
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Jihadi John or ISIS's leader al-Bagdhadi haven't been built up as "THE ULTIMATE BAD GUY" the way Bin Laden was. Such a move could be seen as Democrats making them out to be bigger villains than they really were. I mentioned in the run up to the midterms that the only real October surprise that could possibly favor Democrats might be the death or capture of al-Bagdhadi. Someone countered by asking how many Americans knew who he even was.
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Mar 2, 2015 22:07
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Senator Mikulski (D-MD) will not be seeking reelection. Smart money has O'Malley dropping his presidential bid to try for her seat.
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Mar 2, 2015 23:02
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baw posted:They'll go out kicking and screaming, but they will go out. When preclearance went out the window, they stopped caring because it doesn't matter how small your demographic is if it's the only one that gets to vote FAUXTON posted:Is Walker smart enough to read the writing on the wall, though? He's got a lot of early name recognition in non-Wisconsin places, but will the GOP primary process manage to unveil his inadequacies as liabilities? Or will it just endear him as a good ol' boy who isn't too bright but sure loves America? He's dumb, but he doesn't strike me as particularly assertive or stalwart in the face of adversity. I figure he'll hang on until super tuesday, see his pittance, and go home. My call is Jeb, Cruz, and Rubio hanging out for the long haul
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