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well i am sitting in cash and the claims i make are trivially falsifiable, so much so that they have been falsified in this very thread! but let me tell you about trading
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Feb 27, 2015 15:46
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ohgodwhat posted:I actually tested his strategy in Quantopian the last time he posted it, and it was a loser (surprise!)  I nominate this post for post of the year.
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Feb 27, 2015 16:03
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0.6%
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CYCC lucky timing pump & dump turd of the year. In at 0.83 and out at 1.68 2 days later, and now it's over $2. No news at all
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Feb 27, 2015 16:51
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nebby posted:I haven't run the analysis recently but WTW just got crushed in after hours and at that price *might* be a good value play regardless of how lovely their business prospects are. Someone who actually has their poo poo together should run the numbers though. They look like a dying business but if they manage to implement the cost cutting the CEO is aiming for it could buy them some time to turn poo poo around. Their balance sheet is a disaster....$2.9b in debt, $1.5b in assets. The high-end of their guidance is 70 cents a share this year, which at the current price of around $11.50 translates into 16x 2015 earnings. Seems like a fool's bet to me, but maybe I am missing something. greasyhands posted:CYCC lucky timing pump & dump turd of the year. In at 0.83 and out at 1.68 2 days later, and now it's over $2. No news at all good luck with the investigation
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Feb 27, 2015 16:52
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Arkane posted:good luck with the investigation I don't think my $800 no commission robinhood play trade will draw the attention of the SEC
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Feb 27, 2015 16:57
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Arkane posted:Their balance sheet is a disaster....$2.9b in debt, $1.5b in assets. The high-end of their guidance is 70 cents a share this year, which at the current price of around $11.50 translates into 16x 2015 earnings. Seems like a fool's bet to me, but maybe I am missing something. FWIW I am not interested, but we were getting complains that this thread became solar chat so I thought I'd throw it out.
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Feb 27, 2015 18:42
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Hi there, I just invested $500 for an individual fund at Fidelity.com. I wanted some advice on if this is a good website to use since I use them for my IRA and they've been trading some mutual funds while at my old company until I rolled it all over. Also should I start with small stocks or just go for the more expensive ones I think might be good later?
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Feb 28, 2015 20:24
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If you are talking about your retirement accounts, you should come to the retirement thread: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2892928 This is the
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Feb 28, 2015 23:51
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slap me silly posted:If you are talking about your retirement accounts, you should come to the retirement thread: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2892928 Yeah I have both, but I opened a brokerage account there as well. That's really why I posted. Had $500 and wanted to invest it in some stocks but I'm a literal baby at it and all the reading I'm doing is telling me to research.
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Mar 1, 2015 00:47
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Toadsniff posted:Yeah I have both, but I opened a brokerage account there as well. That's really why I posted. Had $500 and wanted to invest it in some stocks but I'm a literal baby at it and all the reading I'm doing is telling me to research. Honestly toadsniff, this thread is the worst imaginable place for a new person to begin their research. It's filled with idiot degenerate gamblers (myself included). The entire thread is basically a case study of cognitive dissonance
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Mar 1, 2015 04:07
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There are a lot of good posts in here if you can separate out content from white noise. My portfolio is up 68% YTD and 305% since the start of 2014, and I've posted pretty much all of my big trades in this thread as I was making them. There's at least a couple of other posters who have identified deeply under-priced stocks and made gigantic returns as well. I'd say this thread has been incredibly great recently, and questions/ideas are very very very welcome.
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Mar 1, 2015 06:08
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Anyone follow Dominion Diamond Corporation? Looks like there's demand for ethically mined diamonds and this company's financials seem attractive, it's trading at slightly over book value with a PEG of 0.46. Looks like it's been beating earnings estimates recently as well.
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Mar 1, 2015 13:48
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greasyhands posted:Honestly toadsniff, this thread is the worst imaginable place for a new person to begin their research. It's filled with idiot degenerate gamblers (myself included). The entire thread is basically a case study of cognitive dissonance Sounds like fun, I'm not much of a gambler so the Mutual Funds route looks like the way to go for steady gains over time at least with my previous employer, it gained $13 in 3 years giving me over $3000 just sitting on it. Anyway I'm looking at trending stocks and DHX keeps coming up as a for sure bet for a $1 to $2 in the next few weeks. I have no idea what I'm talking about really.
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Mar 1, 2015 17:04
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shrike82 posted:I opened a position in TRN last week right before their Q4 earnings release. I'm up ~13%. Earnings look awesome, the backlog looks great too, and it's trading at an attractive multiple. However, they have a huge potential legal liability with the guardrail thing that they have not incorporated into their balance sheet: http://abcnews.go.com/International/canadian-city-sues-us-guardrail-maker-500-million/story?id=29275777 (that story mentions a Canadian city filing another case...the primary piece of litigation is a $525m judgment that a jury has already made against them, and that they plan to appeal) http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/business/troubled-guardrail-maker-goes-on-a-lobbying-blitz.html?_r=0 (they're starting to donate massive amounts of money, which doesn't exactly ring of honesty) On the conference call, their legal counsel gave about a 5-10 minute spiel saying that they were going to win the case, but reading the news reports it doesn't look as clean-cut as he made it out to be (given that with one of the tests potentially failed). Speaking myself, this scares me off, but I do know that buying at times of perceived weakness like that can see multiple expansion back to normal after the bad news passes. What is disappointing is that it's such a small part of their business, yet could lead to judgments against them that are massively larger than the earnings of the entire company. edit: where did you see that they set aside a billion dollars? Didn't see/hear that mentioned. Arkane fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Mar 1, 2015 |
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Mar 1, 2015 20:15
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Toadsniff posted:Anyway I'm looking at trending stocks and DHX keeps coming up as a for sure bet for a $1 to $2 in the next few weeks. A sure bet just like putting it on black at roulette.
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Mar 1, 2015 22:21
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greasyhands posted:Honestly toadsniff, this thread is the worst imaginable place for a new person to begin their research. It's filled with idiot degenerate gamblers (myself included). The entire thread is basically a case study of cognitive dissonance I'm a perma-pessimist too, preferring to be pleasantly surprised when things are actually going my way, but I'd tend to agree with Arkane by saying this is probably one of the saner places to get trading commentary on the Internet. Not saying it's perfect, but we don't tend to fall victim to the wild enthusiasm/sky is falling dichotomy other places love.
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Mar 2, 2015 00:52
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Sokrateez posted:I'm a perma-pessimist too, preferring to be pleasantly surprised when things are actually going my way, but I'd tend to agree with Arkane by saying this is probably one of the saner places to get trading commentary on the Internet. Not saying it's perfect, but we don't tend to fall victim to the wild enthusiasm/sky is falling dichotomy other places love.
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Mar 2, 2015 09:12
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I am probably too late to post this but athx just made a pretty big partnership in Japan for their stroke research and it's in run up for pre data it's up over 80 cents in pre trading probably has a good run up coming but I am a stock newbie so take from that what you will
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Mar 2, 2015 13:25
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quote:(Reuters) - Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc, a retailer of hardwood flooring in North America, sold flooring with higher levels of formaldehyde than permitted under California's health and safety standards, according to television news program "60 Minutes". After taking a 25% beating on earnings last week, they're down another 25% on this news. Trading seems to be frozen at the moment.
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Mar 2, 2015 15:38
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DNova posted:After taking a 25% beating on earnings last week, they're down another 25% on this news. Trading seems to be frozen at the moment. How high are the levels? Edit wowza hope some people go to jail and poo poo coming from China is actually rigorously tested. RIP in piss lumber liquidators "Richard Drury, attorney: "There are probably tens of thousands of households in California that have installed Lumber Liquidators Chinese laminates that may exceed formaldehyde standards...nationwide it's probably hundreds of thousands." 4. Drury: "The average level in Lumber Liquidators products that we found was over 6 to 7 times above the state standard for formaldehyde. Some that were close to 20 times above the level that's allowed to be sold...It was so high, in fact, that one of our test labs thought their machine was broken." neonbregna fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Mar 2, 2015 |
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Mar 2, 2015 15:57
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Here are some robinhood invites. http://email.robinhood.com/wf/click...uquW1VRmg-3D-3D http://email.robinhood.com/wf/click...5g14T9Sdg-3D-3D http://email.robinhood.com/wf/click...DyuTjNxkQ-3D-3D Got 6 more if anybody is interested.
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Mar 2, 2015 15:59
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neonbregna posted:How high are the levels? A lot of California's standards are loving bonkers but formaldehyde is legitimately nasty poo poo that you do not want to be chronically exposed to even in low levels.
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Mar 2, 2015 16:17
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Rbear posted:Here are some robinhood invites. Thank you! Snagged the first one.
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Mar 2, 2015 17:31
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Holy crap, glad I got in on NXPI. It dropped to 57 or so a few months back and I bought in, and then I doubled down at 72. Big day for them today.
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Mar 2, 2015 17:36
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greasyhands posted:Honestly toadsniff, this thread is the worst imaginable place for a new person to begin their research. It's filled with idiot degenerate gamblers (myself included). The entire thread is basically a case study of cognitive dissonance I decided to put 100 shares on CYCC this morning at 1.68, probably a bad decision...My first stock buy! 
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Mar 2, 2015 19:11
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Toadsniff posted:I decided to put 100 shares on CYCC this morning at 1.68, probably a bad decision...My first stock buy! Why would you make what you think is probably a bad decision with your money?
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Mar 2, 2015 19:37
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Top Bunk Wanker posted:Why would you make what you think is probably a bad decision with your money? Please no kink shaming
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Mar 2, 2015 19:45
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Top Bunk Wanker posted:Why would you make what you think is probably a bad decision with your money? Black on roulette right? What does it matter what I think, the money will do the talking right?
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Mar 2, 2015 19:53
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Toadsniff posted:I decided to put 100 shares on CYCC this morning at 1.68, probably a bad decision...My first stock buy! That is a truly terrible decision. Welcome to the thread.
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Mar 2, 2015 20:11
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Seems like Lumber Liquidators should be collapsing more than it has (this post is based on a $40 share price). (1) It's still trading at 17x earnings. Not exactly cheap for a company selling a commoditized product. Their forecasts for 2015 are $2.75 a share, which is 15x. (2) It has a $1b valuation with $325m in shareholder equity...it's trading at 3x book with lawsuits sure to come. Who the hell knows how much that'll total. Or the expense of ripping out old flooring and perhaps replacing it. Bankruptcy is in play. (3) It's hard to see their sales doing anything except plummeting. 60 Minutes is watched by millions. And there's nothing that scares mothers more than HEALTH HAZARDS to children. (4) WIth the illegal Chinese supplies out of the picture, they're going to see margin compression, so even if we assume nothing will happen except their supply will become more expensive, the stock becomes much more expensive on a P/E basis. Really the only bull case is that the investigation is incorrect, but that doesn't seem all that likely. Lumber Liquidators is using words like "intended use" to defend their product, which is a wiggle word that their argument is going to be that the illegal levels of formaldehyde don't pose a danger. This doesn't seem like a strong defense. Anyone have a good reason why I shouldn't buy some long-term puts and sit on them?
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Mar 2, 2015 21:32
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Arkane posted:Anyone have a good reason why I shouldn't buy some long-term puts and sit on them? They're pretty expensive, and any litigation is likely to resolve after the longest of the LEAPs expire. That would be my counter-argument. I think you're right to be bearish though.
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Mar 2, 2015 21:38
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Maybe do verticals but the spreads might eat you alive there...
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Mar 2, 2015 21:43
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People aren't going to hold their dicks waiting for the litigation to finish. The writing is going to be on the wall one way or another. I think this could easily be sub-20 after 2Q earnings report. It aired on the first day of the 2nd quarter. So I'd be looking at August. And yeah I think a put spread would be what I would aim for.
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Mar 2, 2015 21:49
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Arkane posted:People aren't going to hold their dicks waiting for the litigation to finish. The writing is going to be on the wall one way or another. I think this could easily be sub-20 after 2Q earnings report. It aired on the first day of the 2nd quarter. So I'd be looking at August. And yeah I think a put spread would be what I would aim for. Well, if you do it, let us know... I'll be rooting for you. Too chickenshit to make the trade myself.
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Mar 2, 2015 23:55
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Agronox posted:Well, if you do it, let us know... I'll be rooting for you. Too chickenshit to make the trade myself. Whitney Tilson did it x about 45,000 shares, so it's not like he's alone in that sentiment. This is pretty egregious.
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Mar 3, 2015 00:05
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I don't even trade and I really don't mean to be a dick, but you are probably right to be bearish; however, have you put thoughts into what puts you will buy and when, and how you are going to play a few of the common future scenarios? I think the thread would benefit a lot from people posting rationale behind why they pick certain vehicles and what signs are the looking for rather than "I'm long/short this stock until I wake up spooked one day" The type of entry/exit analysis is a lot more stimulating conversation and more broadly applicable... E: I didn't read you had some thought in it, but any more insight into actual contracts and all that would be pretty helpful
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Mar 3, 2015 01:48
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Had an interesting experience today. I had an open limit order to buy at 64.30. It had been sitting for maybe a week. It filled not long after open, but at a penny lower than the range reported on Google and Yahoo. It filled at 64.30, but both Google and Yahoo show the lowest price of the day at 64.31. Is it an issue with the data source? Was my sub-100 share trade too small to report? Did I potentially get filled on a non-reporting exchange? Just curious. Kind of fun to catch the absolute bottom on something even if it was only for a day. If this stock never goes below my purchase price again I'm going to pretend I'm a genius.
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Mar 3, 2015 05:48
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Arkane posted:Seems like Lumber Liquidators should be collapsing more than it has (this post is based on a $40 share price). And it's already back up 9% this morning.  I absolutely agree with your points above. One of the interviews I heard on NPR yesterday with the main hedge fund manager that brought this story to 60 Minutes, said the same thing. All the potential lost revenue, and margin compression are definitely not factored in and he will continue to short the stock. He didn't have an answer for how long, but he was saying that Bankruptcy would be nice.
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Mar 3, 2015 17:24
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Crazyweasel posted:I don't even trade and I really don't mean to be a dick, but you are probably right to be bearish; however, have you put thoughts into what puts you will buy and when, and how you are going to play a few of the common future scenarios? Well I don't think this is a no-brainer because we're getting the scraps, which is to say I'm not in a rush to do it (and a good thing since it's up 9% today as of this post)....the easy money has definitely been made on this short. There could be persistent irrationality in trading that keeps the stock around this area or even moves it higher for all I know. People try to find overreactions and could view the plummeting of this stock over the past week or so as an overreaction. I've read that these particular products make up 10% of their business (I don't know if that is true). Also there's of course the possibility that people buying the stock are right about the future! However, if we view the spectrum of actual business outcomes, it seems likely this range tilts heavily negative in the short term. The risk of downside doesn't seem like it's fully priced in. There could be permanent damage to the brand and the company's reputation, in addition to lawsuits (even if unsuccessful, legal costs), inventory write-downs, liquidity problems due to lack of cash, margin compression due to changes at Chinese suppliers, etc. The company could at least conceivably disappear if successful lawsuits are wide-ranging and costly...although as pointed out this would take years to materialize if it ever did...but it's a potential outcome that should be priced in right now. This downside risk to the stock is apparent in the premiums for the puts, which are expensive (they look similar to what popular shorts like Herbalife & GoPro looked like earlier this year), and the fact that I can't short the stock on IB (and probably would pay a hefty interest rate if I could). I think my best options are trying to trade the medium-term future via put spreads...the next few months rather than day to day or LEAPs. This could be May or August contracts. I think if there's one point in time where we would expect the focal point of sentiment to be, it could be post-Q2 earnings, which is the first real quarter where we'll get visibility on the impact of the story on earnings. I dunno what I was thinking before saying March was the start of the 2nd quarter....we'll see the immediate impacts in Q1 numbers, which report late April/early May and encompass a full month of sales impacts. Q2 likely reports late July, so would be looking at August contracts to trade earnings reaction to that report. Setting a price target isn't easy, since you're kinda just guessing at what the fallout will be for an event that hasn't happened before. "Lower than this" seems like my best guess as stupid as that is. I tend to lean conservative on bets when possible, so I'd probably err on the side of a non-aggressive put spread like 30/40 rather than trying to predict a complete fallout. It's hard to envision that people will really want to keep owning this stock over the next few months with so much negative uncertainty hanging over it. What do you think?
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Mar 3, 2015 17:36
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| # ? May 21, 2024 15:37 |
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more robinhood https://www.robinhood.com/signup?invite_code=45G3SHP7 https://www.robinhood.com/signup?invite_code=SE52DSQW https://www.robinhood.com/signup?invite_code=JYOZUF3C
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Mar 3, 2015 20:36
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