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Les Affaires
Nov 15, 2004

What makes a bubble burst?

Bubbles burst due to something called “exogenous shock”. Basically something that triggers the behaviour of actors in the market, either by exiting the market as buyers, or by dumping assets at the same time as sellers.

There are many drivers in the real estate market but the main ones are:
- Incomes;
- Foreign investment;
- Lending standards;
- Loan costs;
- Tax offsets and other incentives;
- “Cost of living”

All of these factors affect how much people can afford to spend on housing. A significant change in any of them can be enough to burst a bubble.

The GFC in the USA caused both the cost of loans and the lending standards to go through the roof. It was no longer easy for almost anybody to get a mortgage, the bank had to be dead certain that you were able to service the loan.

This was coupled with the highest unemployment seen in almost a century, and people all across the country not being able to pay their mortgage.

Can this happen here? Of course. But it’s not likely. Our banks have much tighter lending criteria than the US banks did back then. However, this isn’t to say they can’t fail.

The types of things that can affect the market here are usually down to interest rates, unemployment and government incentives. Interest rates sharply increasing may cause a significant amount of mortgages to be more than people can pay. So these properties go on the market. Unemployment, same deal.

Government incentives are an interesting one though. A government can carefully introduce new measures to regulate the market, but if they do so in a hamfisted, sharp way, it can have immediate effects. Say… removing negative gearing. If this was done so that it affected the market immediately, this would cause a lot of investors to dump their property on the market. The recent talk about it is a “phasing out” or “grandfathering”, in order to reduce the chance of a shock.

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Les Affaires
Nov 15, 2004

The big question – Are we in a bubble?

Maybe. It’s yet to be seen whether this is a bubble that can burst, or whether it’s just so loving unaffordable that only the people who already have houses can afford to keep them.

What’s interesting though is that the Baby Boomers are heading for retirement age. As more and more of them retire, they will be looking to their investments to fund their retirement.

Some of them will voluntarily sell their house(s) to fund it. Others will be forced to sell because they have no other income. Still more will pass away, leaving the house to their offspring, who will not be able to decide who gets it and just opt to make it easier by just selling the house.

All of these things point to a gradual glut of housing coming on the market over the next ten years. It’s not sustainable.

Is it a bubble though? Again, maybe. We have to bear in mind that government agencies keep a close eye on these things. As RBA chief Glenn Stevens said recently, he has hundreds of the best PhDs in the country looking at the economy, so you can bet your arse they’re trying to predict what will happen when the Baby Boomers start falling off the perch and put their properties up for sale.

The other beast is Treasury. Again, Joe Hockey has some of the finest economic minds in the country there to advise him on what to do about housing affordability. The only question for him is whether he takes their advice. We’ll see.

What should I do?

That depends on your situation of course. My advice? Think long and hard about how much you really know about housing. Ask yourself why you want to buy a house. Is it because you hate landlords? Because you want an investment?

What are your job prospects like for the future? Will you want to travel? Settle down and have a family? Are you living in an area that has positive growth and employment prospects (ie not Elizabeth in SA)?

Ultimately you need to be asking whether these factors are driving you towards owning a house, or whether it’s something else. We as a culture need to get away from the idea that housing will always go up, up and up.

Learn personal finance. Learn economics. Reduce the information asymmetry. Don’t listen to anybody who has a vested interest in the status quo. And ESPECIALLY don’t listen to Baby Boomers. They are as much a victim of this system as the rest of us, they just mostly don’t know it yet.

Mr Chips
Jun 27, 2007
Whose arse do I have to blow smoke up to get rid of this baby?
Nothing about CGT exemptions/reductions?

Les Affaires
Nov 15, 2004

Mr Chips posted:

Nothing about CGT exemptions/reductions?

CGT exemptions come under tax incentives. Basically, capital gains tax is a tax on a capital appreciation. If an asset is sold for more than you bought it, that difference is treated as income.

If that asset is your primary home, there is no CGT on the difference. So in theory you can just buy home after home and never have to pay any tax on the appreciated price.

You also get a reduction in CGT payable if you hold the asset for more than 12 months, so even if you do pay, it's only on half the gain.

Both of these are designed to reduce the chance that a person will stay in their house unnecessarily when they could move to get a better job. They are both designed to increase the liquidity in the market.

The side effect is that yes, they both contribute to housing price appreciation.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001
Also history!

The 1983 Banking crisis (caused by massive property asset bubble in, of course, Melbourne and Sydney )

Wikipiedia has the briefest of premier :

"Wikipedia posted:

The 1893 banking crisis occurred in Australia when several of the commercial banks of the colonies within Australia collapsed.

During the 1880s there was a speculative boom in the Australian property market. Australian banks were operating in a free banking system, in addition to few legal restrictions on the operation of banks, there was no central bank and no government-provided deposit guarantees. The commercial banks lent heavily, but following the asset price collapse of 1888, companies that had borrowed money started to declare bankruptcy. The full banking crisis became apparent when the Federal Bank failed on 30 January 1893. By 17 May, 11 commercial banks in Sydney, Melbourne and other locations across the country had suspended trading.

Bolded for; hahaha everyone a stupid libertarian back in the day.

Anyway basically property prices went crazy in leading up to 1893. This was unfortunately back droped by a series of world wide recessions starting in about 1876 up to about 1986. Australia had it seems going brilliantly through the first part of it, its economy apparently not only not slowed, but going seemingly better then usually, only for it to get hit by it near the end when it caused a credit crunch which burst the property bubble.

"The Australian Bank Crashes of the 1890s Revisited - DISCUSSION PAPER posted:

What happened to failed banks?
The back story is of a sustained capital influx through public and private channels which flowed into capital formation and created an asset bubble. By the 1880s speculation was rife in urban real estate, particularly in Melbourne the capital of Victoria ,and there was evidence of over investment in the pastoral industry and in public utilities.Australian financial intermediaries, the most important of which were note issuing banks known colloquially as trading banks, raised funds domestically and in Britain which they lent with abandon. Specialist intermediaries such as land banks, building societies and pastoral finance companies, who borrowed from the trading banks as well as collecting deposits and issuing debentures, funneled credit into building and the pastoral industry. The ratio of credit to GDP rose strongly as the balance sheets of both the intermediaries and their customers became highly leveraged.The boom had run its course by the late 1880s. Falling asset prices, compounded by shrinking commodity prices, increased pressure on borrowers, whose defaults undermined the stability of lending institutions.

"TWO DEPRESSIONS, ONE BANKING COLLAPSE -Discussion paper posted:

The land boom was supported by the large number of building societies that opened and the view that one couldn’t lose money by investing in land. Legislation covering building societies was changed in 1876 to allow them to buy and sell land themselves. This resulted in building societies becoming little more than ‘speculative operations’ which added to the inflationary pressure on land and property values. Although an accurate time series of property price data is unavailable, Silberberg presents data suggesting that the average net nominal annual rate of return on land in Melbourne was about 35 per cent from 1880 to 1892.

As out banking systems and economies between now and then are so utterly different, there's probably two many similarities outside similarities shared by all bubbles in general, other then lol the world is cyclical/people never learn. Just though some people might be interested in reading something about, as far as I can tell, Australia first major housing bubble.

dr_rat fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Mar 3, 2015

Negligent
Aug 20, 2013

Its just lovely here this time of year.
Joe Hockey's fat head reappears to hit the smallest of small target dog whistle issues

Apparently it's all the Treasurer can be trusted with which is p funny

Beyond Satire
Oct 18, 2014

freebooter posted:

I have a politically aware English lefty friend who is coming to Australia and doesn't really know anything about it, and has asked for reading recommendation to get an overview of history/politics etc. What's a good longread that sums up the entire bizarre and disgusting asylum seeker debacle, for the benefit of somebody who hasn't done the obstacle course of smoke and mirrors for the past fifteen years? Like, every now and then I wonder what it must look like to somebody who arrives from overseas, to find Australia frothing at the mouth at a tiny group of political refugees. Virtually anything good that I can think of having read comes from the understanding that you've already been schooled in the propaganda, I want something for fresh eyes.

I know Christos Tsiolkas wrote that piece in the Monthly a while back, but I didn't like it, largely because it does what Howard wanted everybody to do and frames it as a question of general immigration rather than the resettlement of people in danger for their lives.


If by longread you mean book, tell your friend to get 'Human RIghts Overboard: Seeking Asylum in Australia'. It was published back in 2008, but tells much of the story that really got us to this point.

It's informative and utterly heart-breaking.

Sludge Tank
Jul 31, 2007

by Azathoth

Les Affaires posted:

big bubble post(s)

Thanks for the informative post on the housing situation. I'm a prospective first buyer. I'm on maritime-sector salary, and although the money is good, I'm only a casual employee and our job market in this industry is not looking good in the near future (with increase in foreign ships on the coast/anti-union govt etc). Every time I walk down the gangway I'm technically 'unemployed' as my contract is terminated... so my chances of getting a loan are pretty poo poo, or next to none.

Finding a permanent job at this stage is looking like an impossibility. My mum is hounding me to buy a house and even though I'm only considering something like a $250k~ range property in rural Tasmania at the moment, I don't like the idea of getting the loan and then the rear end falling out of our industry and having to scrape the barrel to find some meek job to scrounge together mortgage payments, let alone having to adjust to the massive drop in income/change standard of living etc. My seagoing qualifications are worthless on land.

I don't know how justified I am in being super sceptical of the housing market, taking into consideration my employment prospects.

Anyway, I only posted to subscribe to the thread, thanks again for the great post.

froglet
Nov 12, 2009

You see, the best way to Stop the Boats is a massive swarm of autonomous armed dogs. Strafing a few boats will stop the rest and save many lives in the long term.

You can't make an Omelet without breaking a few eggs. Vote Greens.

freebooter posted:

I have a politically aware English lefty friend who is coming to Australia and doesn't really know anything about it, and has asked for reading recommendation to get an overview of history/politics etc. What's a good longread that sums up the entire bizarre and disgusting asylum seeker debacle, for the benefit of somebody who hasn't done the obstacle course of smoke and mirrors for the past fifteen years? Like, every now and then I wonder what it must look like to somebody who arrives from overseas, to find Australia frothing at the mouth at a tiny group of political refugees. Virtually anything good that I can think of having read comes from the understanding that you've already been schooled in the propaganda, I want something for fresh eyes.

I know Christos Tsiolkas wrote that piece in the Monthly a while back, but I didn't like it, largely because it does what Howard wanted everybody to do and frames it as a question of general immigration rather than the resettlement of people in danger for their lives.

Battlelines. Definitely Battlelines.

... Just kidding. If your friend is interested in economics, Battlers and Billionaires: The Story of Inequality in Australia is an interesting read, especially since the author is a Labor MP (fun fact - Andrew Leigh offered a copy of his book to the Libs after their budget came out last year).

Zetsubou-san
Jan 28, 2015

Cruel Bifaunidas demanded that you [stand]🧍 I require only that you [kneel]🧎
40 years of the Advertising Standards Bureau (pdf)

hiddenmovement
Sep 29, 2011

"Most mornings I'll apologise in advance to my wife."

Les Affaires posted:

Learn personal finance. Learn economics. Reduce the information asymmetry. Don’t listen to anybody who has a vested interest in the status quo. And ESPECIALLY don’t listen to Baby Boomers. They are as much a victim of this system as the rest of us, they just mostly don’t know it yet.

Sludge Tank posted:

My mum is hounding me to buy a house

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING

Sludge Tank posted:

I don't know how justified I am in being super sceptical of the housing market, taking into consideration my employment prospects.

Australians go loving bonkers over houses, it's a religion for them and logic doesn't enter into it - especially baby boomers but also the newer generation because they've been raised on the propaganda that Les Affaires was talking about.

People keep telling you to invest in houses and it's safe as houses and buy a house early because renting is for suckers and blah blah and you'll notice that these are all like four word slogans that can be easily repeated by people who don't know what they're talking about.

Ask your mum what sort of mortgage you can expect to get on your current non-salary (it won't be a good one) and what'll happen if you go a few months or more without being able to scrape together the mortgage payment. I mean I don't know poo poo about houses but off the top of my head I'd be writing a pros and cons table with the following kind of outline:

PROS:

You're living the aussie dream
You now nominally own something (although truly the bank owns it until you make your last payment) that has financial value - e.g. if it does increase in 'value' then the gains are yours, and you can get a second mortgage later on depending on circumstances, etc, which means you have the potential to obtain further capital for wise (or unwise) investments
Your house is your own property which means if you want to paint it bright pink or re-do the driveway or the garden you only need to ask the local council and your bank account, you don't need to go through the landlord and ask if he'd be okay with some modifications. Increased value from renovations also belong to you whereas as a renter you can't take your beautiful garden with you when you leave

CONS:

Huge loving mortgage which you may or may not be able to pay - it's money out of your pocket every month that you only get back in one potential future where you sell the house at a profit ten or thirty years down the track. Your standard of living will drop as you no longer have as much cash to spend - get ready for a lot of nights at home and no holidays for a while
You're responsible for everything. Absolutely everything. You'll get home owners insurance etc, which is even more money out of pocket, but if there are any issues with the house it's your responsibility (financial and legal and emotional) to fix it
You're tied to the house. It owns you more than you own it. You're tying yourself and your opportunities down to that very specific geographical location.
What if the unimaginable happens and the free market doesn't ascend from heaven on a gold-plated segway to hand you a magic "house appreciates in value; collect all the dollars" token? You're paying a shitload of money for something that you can't get rid of and, more than that, won't want to get rid of because you're chasing your losses and still waiting for the market to turn around and realise its mistake.

For houses to be a good investment you have to sell it at some point, and the final sale price has to surpass:

Agent fees
Initial stamp duty etc
Total mortgage payments including interest
Council rates garbage collection etc over that period
Inflation (avg ~3% from memory, looks like it ranges 1-3% according to this graph i just found. say it averages 3% over the length of the ownership. e.g. if you aren't getting at least 3% payrise every year on your job, you're not even earning the same amount - you're earning less. now apply that to your house)
Cost of any renovations
Cost of maintenance and repairs during the life of the house (all the way from replacing lightbulbs to showers to damp to redoing the roof every 10 years - anything a renter wouldn't normally be hit for)
The loss of potential revenue from other, more profitable investments that you were unable to pursue because all your (non-existent) capital was tied up in property. E.g. if you'd invested in bitcoins or computer spaceships you could have been an internet billionaire but instead all your money goes to your leaky house and ramen noodles

Now compare that to the cost of renting over the same period, which is not 'wasted money' as people often put it - you still have to pay to live somewhere regardless.

And that final amount that's left to you needs to be weighted for+against the hassle (or joy) of owning your own property.. Being entirely responsible for it if it turns out to be a bit of a lemon (or even just as it ages), relaxing in your back yard and saying "how's the tranquility" again and again until everybody throws their empty tinnies at you, and then the final nightmare of having to sell a goddamn house and deal with inspections and auctions and scummy real estate agents (mother loving real estate agents). And also the awareness that you're tied into it.. somebody offers you your dream job in melbourne or sydney or london or tokyo and you can't take it because you have a house that you can't afford to sell yet. You have three kids instead of two and suddenly you need to either build a giant extension or sell the house while a renter would have just waited 6 months and then moved. Or you go rural because it's cheaper to buy property and then the local supermarket goes under and you have to drive forty minutes to buy milk instead of ten - sounds crazy but when you talk about owning property you have to think in terms of decades, not years. And what if you actually get a way better (or worse) job than you expected - as a renter you have the flexibility to upgrade or downgrade your lifestyle according to your income. As a homeowner you could be a rich guy in a two dollar crapshack, or a penniless bum selling plasma to stop the bank from foreclosing because he thought bad things only happen to other people.

If it's a financial decision, you need to decide whether that final payoff (balanced against the risk of it not paying off) is worth waiting X years and going to all that effort. Compare that to renting, keeping your opportunities open, and using your money elsewhere to build your financial position. You might decide that you'd much rather invest in your own quality of life over those 15-20 years and say okay, at the end of it I won't have a house to show for it, but I did get to travel the world and work less hours, pick jobs for the love of it rather than the money, spend more quality time with my kids, and upgrade my lifestyle as my financial position improves.

There's probably more but that is such a huge incoherent mess of a post that I'm going to leave it at that. At the very least, someone buying a house has to account for all of those variables and still have property ownership make more sense, AND answer the question of "does it make more sense to buy now rather than keep my options open and buy a little later?"

Sulla Faex fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Mar 3, 2015

TheMightyHandful
Dec 8, 2008

We bought a house back when Rudd was giving out the $21K FHOG, 2008?. We had some savings, but the added incentive of that money we (my wife) listened to our baby boomer parents and decided to by a house at 90% LVR (borrowing 90% of the value of the house)


Anyway at that stage it was just my wife and I, but then we had a baby, suddenly the house wasn't quite big enough and before our second baby, we decided we definitely needed a new house.

I had recently gone from a job at a huge company, to one at a much smaller company (goodbye job security) so didn't really want a mortgage hanging around my neck, so we decided to rent. Goddamn it is so much cheaper (in Tasmania, anyway) than a mortgage we couldn't really afford (particularly on one salary)

Sulla, all those costs are what get you, we basically left the house once it sold with half of the deposit that we had, so yes it wasn't a profitable venture. I think people getting the FHOG blinds people into thinking that they can afford to borrow, i.e. just because the bank says you can, and particularly young people don't tend to think in terms of 5-10 years into their future.

There is that stupid idea that 'property doubles in value every 10 years', which drives me mental hearing every so often (I work at a bank lending money, so have to deal with mortgage brokers, real estate agents who have blinding self interest).

markgreyam
Mar 10, 2008

Talk to the mittens.
I always thought the idea of owning a house was great because it only takes 30-40 years to pay off once you get that loan in your 20s/30s and then because everyone lives forever it's a wonderful thing to have for all that time

Also I love the dangling modifier on First Home Owner's Grant

Also the word owner in that name

TheMightyHandful
Dec 8, 2008

I cant remember where I saw (it was either here or in a macroeconomics textbook) it but there was a graph showing every FHOG has increased housing prices in whatever market it was in, but once the incentive ceases, the price does not go doewn and stays at the same level, effectively shutting out new entrants to the market.

fiery_valkyrie
Mar 26, 2003

I'm proud of you, Bender. Sure, you lost. You lost bad. But the important thing is I beat up someone who hurt my feelings in high school.
For anyone who is thinking about getting a home loan (or any loan), I recommend checking canstar.com.au to compare interest rates. There are a lot of lenders out there that you've never heard of offering much better rates than the big 4 banks with the same options and often better customer service.

Zenithe
Feb 25, 2013

Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.
If you are thinking about buying a house, it is best to have at least 20% of the cost as a deposit, as this will get you a better interest rate because you are considered a better investment by the bank.

Secondly, when you do buy that house (at least this is what I did), sacrifice the gently caress out of everything until it is payed off. As much as it sucks to change your lifestyle, you really want to work down your principal as much as possible to avoid paying interest.


fiery_valkyrie posted:

For anyone who is thinking about getting a home loan (or any loan), I recommend checking canstar.com.au to compare interest rates. There are a lot of lenders out there that you've never heard of offering much better rates than the big 4 banks with the same options and often better customer service.

Mortgage brokers are a thing too, and ones like Aussie don't have fees. At the end of the day you find a better deal you can always just not go ahead. The guy who I met was really great and explained a lot of things about how lending works etc.

Jonah Galtberg
Feb 11, 2009

Sludge Tank posted:

Thanks for the informative post on the housing situation. I'm a prospective first buyer. I'm on maritime-sector salary, and although the money is good, I'm only a casual employee and our job market in this industry is not looking good in the near future (with increase in foreign ships on the coast/anti-union govt etc). Every time I walk down the gangway I'm technically 'unemployed' as my contract is terminated... so my chances of getting a loan are pretty poo poo, or next to none.

Finding a permanent job at this stage is looking like an impossibility. My mum is hounding me to buy a house and even though I'm only considering something like a $250k~ range property in rural Tasmania at the moment, I don't like the idea of getting the loan and then the rear end falling out of our industry and having to scrape the barrel to find some meek job to scrounge together mortgage payments, let alone having to adjust to the massive drop in income/change standard of living etc. My seagoing qualifications are worthless on land.

I don't know how justified I am in being super sceptical of the housing market, taking into consideration my employment prospects.

Anyway, I only posted to subscribe to the thread, thanks again for the great post.
Have you considered telling your mum to piss off?

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING
Another thing to worry about with home owners and seeking their advice is that they tend to overstate the how important it is to them that they own their house. You can't ask someone "was it a good idea?" because there's a cognitive bias at play that discourages them from analysing it impartially. They're too emotionally invested in the answer being 'yes'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect

The more money you sink into something, the more you value it, even if the base utility of the product doesn't change. So somebody who has spent $200k on a $100k car will be far happier with it than someone who spent $100k on the same car.

So if you talk to homeowners they tend to proselytize as well, like religious people insecure in their faith. Owning a home must be a wonderful, amazing thing, and you need to believe it too, because I have a $1.4 million mortgage and I haven't had a holiday in three and a half years so it's all gotta be worth something.

So when you're talking to homeowners, take their advice with a grain of salt - double check the numbers, and think about it critically. They're emotionally invested in a biased answer.

e: I'm not saying that buying a house is by definition a stupid idea or that all homeowners will lie to you when they say it was a good decision for them. But there is a crazy amount of propaganda and cultural slant that encourages buying homes even when it is a ridiculous bloody idea, and entirely unnecessary, for the vast majority of people. What's wrong with renting? You get a nicer place for your money and when poo poo breaks you just call your landlord. If there's a problem or the neighbours are poo poo or you get a better job elsewhere or you have one kid too many, you just up and leave and all you pay for is the cost of moving. There's a cultural/social disdain for renting and renters and I don't understand it. You trade stability for mobility and security. I'd say that's a decent deal unless you're absolutely positive on not needing mobility or security.

Sulla Faex fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Mar 3, 2015

You Am I
May 20, 2001

Me @ your poasting

Jumpingmanjim posted:

What does the ALP stand for?

Another Liberal Party

dud root
Mar 30, 2008
Didn't make the Adelaide Wheaty catchup because fringe, but count me in for the next.

Fruity Gordo
Aug 5, 2013

Neurotic, Impotent Rage!
None of you are invited to my housewarming party when I sink my $20,000 deposit into a $3m two bedder in Chiswick.

Fruity Gordo
Aug 5, 2013

Neurotic, Impotent Rage!
Jk, lol at amassing a 20 grand lump sum.

turdbucket
Oct 30, 2011

Raged posted:

Call the ATO.

The hard part is that not all of the workers may be legal to work or reside in Australia. Calling that in is bound to get a few people deported. I know from experience as an "illegal" that they are probably pretty drat desperate. I worked at a job with horrible hours and pay and I was grateful for what money I could pull in. It's a sick depressing cycle. I lucked out and became a DJ which gave me enough money to hire the legal help I needed.

It's a hosed situation on your end. You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Is it much harder to get a work visa over a student visa? It's pretty horrible, it's not like they are doing it out of malice. They really don't help the already poor regulation of the industry though. I have reported them to the ATO online before (the agency not the workers) but maybe I need to call. I'd have no problem doing it if I knew they were all able to get back paid at least because that would be in the tens of thousands of unpaid wages.

Mad Katter
Aug 23, 2010

STOP THE BATS

Strong Convections posted:

Report them. The agencies and the workers. They're here on student visas, not work visas and are breaking the law.

This is a dick thing to do against a group of people who are among the most discriminated against and exploited in the workplace. It can be really difficult for students to find part time work (often because they have a funny name, or employers don't understand how their visa works), which drives many of them to work for dodgy employers that under pay them, forcing them to work extra hours to try and make ends meet.

markgreyam
Mar 10, 2008

Talk to the mittens.

Sulla-Marius 88 posted:

You can't ask someone "was it a good idea?" because there's a cognitive bias at play that discourages them from analysing it impartially. They're too emotionally invested in the answer being 'yes'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect

See also: having children.

Zenithe posted:

Secondly, when you do buy that house (at least this is what I did), sacrifice the gently caress out of everything until it is payed off. As much as it sucks to change your lifestyle, you really want to work down your principal as much as possible to avoid paying interest.

Banks are evil, so instead of giving them extra money, sacrifice everything about your life instead. Also, out of curiosity have you paid off your house? How long did you sacrifice everything for? Would you be prepared to ballpark your combined income for me? I'm honestly just curious, because EDIT: actually you are just giving advice, I suppose, benefit of the doubt, and all that.

e: vvv lol well so much for my attempted edit. Man you were quick.

markgreyam fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Mar 3, 2015

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING

markgreyam posted:

See also: having children.


Banks are evil, so instead of giving them extra money, sacrifice everything about your life instead. Also, out of curiosity have you paid off your house? How long did you sacrifice everything for? Would you be prepared to ballpark your combined income for me? I'm honestly just curious, because I haven't experienced the level of what Sulla Marius is describing that you are aptly demonstrating since I suffered through have to try to explain to countless people that I didn't want children, and It's a different experience with a less engrained-in-chemistry background (i.e. your body doesn't scream at you to buy a house).

Having children hasn't been a financially sound investment since farms mechanised and we got infant mortality down to non-horrifying levels. But having children is one of those "life's purpose" type things, whereas owning a house is hopefully a bit different. Yes, there's a cognitive bias element to both, but nobody tries to argue that kids are going to make you money. It's just something you have to decide whether you want to do or not. But people who scoff at the bible will happily yell at you that houses are a great investment and you're a sucker for renting, even as they hemorrhage out the last few cents of their paycheque on an investment that won't ever pay off until they get a divorce and kick the kids out.

Majestic
Mar 19, 2004

Don't listen to us!

We're fuckwits!!
My wife and I have just bought our first home, though our experience is highly atypical, since my mum left me a large chunk of money when she passed away a couple of years ago. We've been able to buy a good sized house in a high end area, and we're actually paying less per month than we were in rent. I may well just be an example of the cognitive bias Sulla mentioned, but I have to say that there are definitely some strong emotional positives to owning a home.

I spent most of my childhood moving between rental homes, often when we didn't want to move, but were forced to. I haven't had awful experiences renting as adults, but being forced to deal with rear end in a top hat property managers who really don't seem to care if you're alive or dead is a pretty tedious experience. My wife having a garden she can plant things in, knowing that she'll be able to see the results in ten years, is bringing her a lot of happiness. There is just a general feeling of permanence that "owning" a home (or having a bank own a home) gives that renting cannot.

I think it's a poor decision from a financial point of view, but it's worth the loss of revenue from investments etc for us. As I said, our case is unusual, in that we've made no real sacrifices in terms of lifestyle, but I do think it's important not to underestimate some of the emotional benefits to owning your own place. You just shouldn't feel obligated to do it. If you're happy renting, then you should absolutely keep renting, you'll end up with more money in the long run.

Nuclear Spy
Jun 10, 2008

feeling under?

dud root posted:

Didn't make the Adelaide Wheaty catchup because fringe, but count me in for the next.
We definitely have to have another soon, it was a great night. We had about eight goons turn up, including a few new faces too - thanks everyone who came last night!

markgreyam
Mar 10, 2008

Talk to the mittens.

Sulla-Marius 88 posted:

Having children hasn't been a financially sound investment

I actually did my best to remove any financial reference from your post when I then referenced children, it was meant more as a generic cognitive bias observation for comparison.

Although it would be easy to combine the two as if I had a dollar for every time I was told to just have kids anyway because I'll love it once it happens, I would freehold my own house.

Rougey
Oct 24, 2013
My super plan is my parents dying.

...

... I know this is SA, but despite the E/N worthy animosity I feel towards them I feel pretty bad saying that.

That and they don't have all that much anyway.

Rougey fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Mar 4, 2015

Ragingsheep
Nov 7, 2009

tomkash posted:

Is it much harder to get a work visa over a student visa? It's pretty horrible, it's not like they are doing it out of malice. They really don't help the already poor regulation of the industry though. I have reported them to the ATO online before (the agency not the workers) but maybe I need to call. I'd have no problem doing it if I knew they were all able to get back paid at least because that would be in the tens of thousands of unpaid wages.

Its pretty much impossible to get a work visa if you don't have some in demand skills or are sponsored by a business (and if you're getting sponsored for unskilled work, then the company is a massive pile of poo poo that's probably under paying)

Strong Convections
May 8, 2008

Mad Katter posted:

This is a dick thing to do against a group of people who are among the most discriminated against and exploited in the workplace. It can be really difficult for students to find part time work (often because they have a funny name, or employers don't understand how their visa works), which drives many of them to work for dodgy employers that under pay them, forcing them to work extra hours to try and make ends meet.

Cry me a loving river. They're students, they're allowed to work for 20 hours per week, during session. During breaks in their schooling year they're allowed to work unlimited hours.
If it's such a dick move then lobby to have the law changed. It's not though, and people applying for student visas when they're really intending to work are rorting the system.
Why would you want to support dodgy employers running dodgy businesses? Why support the exploitation? Not only that it keeps those dodgy businesses around to screw over Australia by not paying tax, screwing a potential employee out of superannuation and taking business from businesses that do the right thing.

Cartoon
Jun 20, 2008

poop


Nationals NSW.jpg

Smegmatron
Apr 23, 2003

I hate to advocate emptyquoting or shitposting to anyone, but they've always worked for me.

Les Affaires posted:

don’t listen to Baby Boomers.

This is just good advice in general and should be applied by everyone to all facets of life.

Laserface
Dec 24, 2004

I dont know whats dumber, renting a 1 bedroom flat for $500 or paying an equally retarded mortgage for the same thing (which I have no idea the actual cost of, because I am too scared to look)

Zenithe
Feb 25, 2013

Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.

markgreyam posted:

See also: having children.


Banks are evil, so instead of giving them extra money, sacrifice everything about your life instead. Also, out of curiosity have you paid off your house? How long did you sacrifice everything for? Would you be prepared to ballpark your combined income for me? I'm honestly just curious, because EDIT: actually you are just giving advice, I suppose, benefit of the doubt, and all that.


Regardless of who it is, I have never had any intention of paying for a house twice. I made sacrifices so now I live in my own house with no regular repayments.

I have just finished paying off my house. I saved up for four years to get a large deposit (hence much less interest) and paid my house off in two. My income is about $55k a year.

Laserface
Dec 24, 2004

Zenithe posted:

Regardless of who it is, I have never had any intention of paying for a house twice. I made sacrifices so now I live in my own house with no regular repayments.

I have just finished paying off my house. I saved up for four years to get a large deposit (hence much less interest) and paid my house off in two. My income is about $55k a year.



What the gently caress? do you live in a studio with a 90min commute to civilization?

Zenithe
Feb 25, 2013

Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.

Laserface posted:

What the gently caress? do you live in a studio with a 90min commute to civilization?

I have a >5 minute commute to work.

I don't live in a capital city though.

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HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
If it wasn't so loving expensive I'd probably buy a house. I'm hoping for a 20% market correction and hopefully I can afford something somewhat decent.

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