Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING
This isn't directly related to housing chat but more to the philosophy behind it. I find it quite funny how short-sighted people can be when it comes to investments. They rail against the government for regulating industries to stop them from exploiting vulnerabilities, and then if/when they find a gap in the fence and sneak through, they do so with the full expectation that the government will help protect them from the fall-out if it all comes undone.

Capitalists are all for stripping protections and gassing undeveloped countries with free market poison but then they act shocked and betrayed when a bunch of impoverished locals pay the maid to let them in through the compound gate and put a knife to everyone there. Where was the police force that I insisted be dismantled because they were stopping me from committing crimes? Oh noooo

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again
So when the housing bubble pops is that the time to buy a house given prices will dive to the new mean?

Lack of Gravitas
Oct 11, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Anidav posted:

So when the housing bubble pops is that the time to buy a house given prices will dive to the new mean?

Why bother buying? I'm going to follow Sulla's advice - pay off a maid, eat the rich, and squat in their house.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


Ignore my posts!
I'm aggressively wrong about everything!

Jumpingmanjim posted:



I reckon we are at delusion.

I would've said denial, or really anything between it and the 'return to normal'. People have started popularizing the idea and making money off other people wanting to get in (I cringe every time an Ironfish ad comes over the radio, I don't know if they're a thing outside of SA though), that's clear 'new paradigm' scenarios. Yet it's clearly started failing; a bubble this big doesn't burst overnight, so it's taken a while to progress beyond, but the machine's clearly breaking down if you look for the signs of it.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Anidav posted:

So when the housing bubble pops is that the time to buy a house given prices will dive to the new mean?

Japanese house prices have been decreasing since the crash at the start of the 90s

Mattjpwns
Dec 14, 2006

In joyful strains then let us sing
ADVANCE AUSTRALIA FUCKED
ahahahaha holy poo poo anidav's new avatar

I'm on Austudy for the next year, can I get a Centrelink tag too, thanks :P

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Japanese house prices have been decreasing since the crash at the start of the 90s

So after a decade the new mean is still unknown? Snail market?

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Anidav posted:

So after a decade the new mean is still unknown? Snail market?

We live in interesting times my friend.

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

Over two decades now. Japan also has apartments for sale where you literally buy the apartment, and not the land / space in midair. So after 30ish years when the owner decides to tear down the building it's time to get a new house.

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING
For the record I'm not specifically advising anybody here to murder the wealthy and seize their estates, however if you have the capacity then the free market essentially demands it

Kegslayer
Jul 23, 2007

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Japanese house prices have been decreasing since the crash at the start of the 90s

It actually picked back up again last year but it's not really a good comparison to Australia given the country's suffered from decades of deflation and the impact of the GFC.

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN
Jun 26, 2009



It's a free house for you, Jim!

Mr Chips
Jun 27, 2007
Whose arse do I have to blow smoke up to get rid of this baby?

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Japanese house prices have been decreasing since the crash at the start of the 90s

decreasing, as in increasing at a rate lower than the inflation rate?

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Sulla-Marius 88 posted:

This isn't directly related to housing chat but more to the philosophy behind it. I find it quite funny how short-sighted people can be when it comes to investments. They rail against the government for regulating industries to stop them from exploiting vulnerabilities, and then if/when they find a gap in the fence and sneak through, they do so with the full expectation that the government will help protect them from the fall-out if it all comes undone.

Bring back debtors jail, and let the bastards rot in shackles!

...or slightly more constructive and humanly, properly fund the Australian Investments and Securities Commission and get some one in charge who makes sure it does its drat job properly.

and let them see some bastards to shackles!

canberratimes posted:

The revelations, which follow the fraud and forgery scandal inside the Commonwealth Bank's financial planning operation, will add to calls for a royal commission into the financial advice sector – a move that the Abbott government has so far refused to consider, despite a royal commission into CBA being recommended by a high-profile bipartisan Senate inquiry last year.

"One of the worst 'captain's calls' of the Abbott government was to dismiss this recommendation out of hand, despite readily calling royal commissions into unions and pink batts when it suited them," said Jeff Morris, the whistleblower who exposed the planning scandal at CBA.

He said the NAB revelations added to the case for an even more wide-ranging royal commission into financial services and white-collar crime.
Alan Kirkland, the boss of consumer advocacy group Choice, said on Friday that Australia's financial planning industry was "dangerous" and read like a scandal rap sheet. "CBA, Storm Financial, Great Southern, Westpoint, Fincorp, Trio, Timbercorp – which makes it even more alarming that less than 2 per cent of financial advice licensees will be subject to proactive surveillance by ASIC," he said. He called on the government to boost the spending of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission to better monitor dangerous industries.

The NAB documents were provided to Fairfax Media by a concerned internal bank whistleblower, who was not willing to trust NAB's whistleblower protection policies.

The whistleblower has told Fairfax Media of a volatile, toxic and Machiavellian culture within NAB Wealth. "I'm providing this information because a lot of us are frustrated with the 'motherhood' statements and lack of commitment by management to take these issues seriously," the whistleblower said.

Although neither of those will happen while Abbott or Turnbull is in charge I fear.

dr_rat fucked around with this message at 11:34 on Mar 4, 2015

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Mr Chips posted:

decreasing, as in increasing at a rate lower than the inflation rate?

Decreasing, even when adjusted for inflation. Just do a google image search for graphs.

E: I know house price chat shits people to tears, but look at what's happening in Europe, A crash can happen here and it will affect all of us, regardless of whether we own real estate or not.

Every one has heard the phrase "Australia is a lucky country". It was written by the poet Donald Horne. We've all heard it used, but used incorrectly. The full quotation is:

quote:

Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second rate people who share its luck. It lives on other people's ideas, and, although its ordinary people are adaptable, most of its leaders (in all fields) so lack curiosity about the events that surround them that they are often taken by surprise.

God or geology or whatever blessed us with a lot of valuable stuff to dig out of the ground. And we've never really progressed beyond that. We are a mediocre people and one day our luck will run out.

I would blow Dane Cook fucked around with this message at 11:51 on Mar 4, 2015

Graic Gabtar
Dec 19, 2014

squat my posts

Jumpingmanjim posted:



I reckon we are at delusion.

I dunno - it might be "return to normal".

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING
unless it's just about to skyrocket

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING
you forget that we have a liberal government so the economy is finally back on track. we all about to get rich

Graic Gabtar
Dec 19, 2014

squat my posts

Sulla-Marius 88 posted:

unless it's just about to skyrocket
Well that's also a possibility.

EvilElmo
May 10, 2009
'Kill yourself' -Clive Palmer.

Is he raptorfag?

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING

Jumpingmanjim posted:

E: I know house price chat shits people to tears, but look at what's happening in Europe, A crash can happen here and it will affect all of us, regardless of whether we own real estate or not.

I'd love to buy a parcel of land in Spain or Italy somewhere as a holiday house and become just another rich tourist driving the locals even further into destitution and hopelessness but I'm so flat broke that by the time I have enough money for the deposit the market will have rebounded and we'll be living on the moon regardless

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Sulla-Marius 88 posted:

I'd love to buy a parcel of land in Spain or Italy somewhere as a holiday house and become just another rich tourist driving the locals even further into destitution and hopelessness but I'm so flat broke that by the time I have enough money for the deposit the market will have rebounded and we'll be living on the moon regardless

We were talking about this in the canadian thread, you can basically get a whole village with a castle and some peasants too!

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING

Jumpingmanjim posted:

We were talking about this in the canadian thread, you can basically get a whole village with a castle and some peasants too!

Rime posted:

For PT6A, there's also about a hundred villages in Spain for sale, for $50,000 - $300,000, which usually include a church and 40+ houses in addition to a grand manor. In case you want to roleplay as a literal lord or something, I dunno. :v:

:stare:

I'm going to go check if my girlfriend is secretly wealthy or something

e: Thanks for this I'm now going to lose a whole day of work googling properties in spain in case we can buy a holiday house for like $10k and a can of coke. If somebody has links let me know

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

There was a thing about cheap castles in France a while ago, I think it turned out that the rates / property tax was still pretty frigging expensive, which explained the lack of buyers.

Nuclear Spy
Jun 10, 2008

feeling under?
Someone earlier was asking about the Australian property thread, well I managed to find it: Why Australia is Screwed

This is my favourite part about reading about investor sentiment towards property bubbles. Does this sound familiar?

quote:

Once again the masters of doom and gloom are at it .These Economists have been predicting the great fall for the last ten years ,every week you listen to them on radio and TV predicting disasters in the economy .Its the old story that if you keep saying something often enough you will be right eventually.

Its time someone took on these doom merchants and expose them every time their predictions are wrong .

Ireland is still one of the fastest growing economys in Europe 100% employment and one of the highest rates of home ownership inthe world most familys have two or three cars ,everybody has access to third level Education etc etc and these dam economists are trying to still upset us.

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING
e: ^ There will always be hands-over-ears perpetual optimist types that just flat out don't want to deal with the writing on the wall. Easier to live in blissful ignorance for the present than worry about something that seems bigger than you're able to handle. Not to say they're not idiots, but you can see why they fight so hard to find a comfortable perception of the world. It's like climate change deniers who have no financial interest vested in pollution.. they just don't want to deal with an ugly reality.

open24hours posted:

There was a thing about cheap castles in France a while ago, I think it turned out that the rates / property tax was still pretty frigging expensive, which explained the lack of buyers.

Yeah castles are things that nobody actually wants to buy/live in for obvious reasons, and France is noway near as hosed as Spain is in terms of housing etc. It's just people trying to offload unwanted goods. But Spain isn't in a position to really twist the knife with property taxes etc from what I can see, although I really have no idea how I'd even go about finding out the total estimated cost of property purchase there. Even as an intellectual exercise

Sulla Faex fucked around with this message at 12:18 on Mar 4, 2015

The Before Times
Mar 8, 2014

Once upon a time, I would have thrown you halfway to the moon for a crack like that.

Nuclear Spy posted:

Someone earlier was asking about the Australian property thread, well I managed to find it: Why Australia is Screwed

This is my favourite part about reading about investor sentiment towards property bubbles. Does this sound familiar?

I don't have access to archives :(

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

Nuclear Spy posted:

Someone earlier was asking about the Australian property thread, well I managed to find it: Why Australia is Screwed

This is my favourite part about reading about investor sentiment towards property bubbles. Does this sound familiar?

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/david-mcwilliams-irish-economy-set-up-to-fail-1.2118484

Graic Gabtar
Dec 19, 2014

squat my posts
There's always those $1,000 houses in Detroit if Castles aren't your style.

Nuclear Spy
Jun 10, 2008

feeling under?

Mithranderp posted:

I don't have access to archives :(
This may or may not work (sorry Lowtax!)

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING

Graic Gabtar posted:

There's always those $1,000 houses in Detroit if Castles aren't your style.

https://www.google.it/search?q=detroit&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=c-r2VMfVEeLZ7gaH3oD4Ag&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAg&biw=1920&bih=967

https://www.google.it/search?q=spain&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=c-r2VIXSFIqj7AbwvIHYDg&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAg&biw=1920&bih=967#tbm=isch&q=murcia

I'd probably just throw in a few extra grand so I don't get stabbed walking to buy milk

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

403

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-36093703.html

Shame it would cost almost as much to visit as the place is worth. Being on a site for British expats I'm sure that's about twice the real price for something similar.

Nuclear Spy
Jun 10, 2008

feeling under?

Mithranderp posted:

I don't have access to archives :(
A few quotes from the OP:

quote:

Housing in Australia is overpriced. This is nothing new to anyone who's paid even slight interest to news or has tried to buy a house. Housing in Australia is currently in the middle of a decade long bubble. The bubble will eventually burst and cause widespread suffering, but in the meantime the national obsession with housing speculation is causing the decay of Australia's political system.

Here's some charts I nicked off Wikipedia. As you can see, the price of housing has been dramatically outpacing CPI and wages and property values have blown out to 3 times GDP.

quote:

The problem that has arisen however is that since the folk understanding of housing markets dictates that house prices always go up, people are always willing to buy an overpriced house, as since the prices always go up you'll always make a profit. Furthermore, the logic of the market dictates that the longer you wait to buy a house, the more expensive it will be and the longer you will have to wait to make a profit so you should buy early and buy often.

quote:

Currently both sides of politics are gearing up for a good bout of welfare bashing. Julia Gillard is promising a harsh budget this year and has singled out welfare recipients as targets and Tony Abbott has championed the idea of moving all unemployed people under the age of 30 into indentured servitude for the giant mining corporations.

The problem is at 4.9% unemployment, Australia is at or near maximum employment levels and no amount of welfare bashing will move these people into work. Even worse, according to mainstream economic theory if the Gillard government does try to move these people into work it will cause increased wage inflation and put upward pressure on interest rates. So why bash the unemployed if you don't actually want them to have jobs? It serves two purposes, both of which have more to do with political messaging and cultural manipulation then economics.

quote:

The second purpose of welfare bashing is to reinforce the myth of the Aussie battler. This myth was fostered by Liberal PM John Howard during his Primeministership and successfully allowed him to gain support amongst the enmortgaged classes of Western Sydney who inhabit key marginal lower house seats. It works by defining true Australians as those who followed the Australian dream, got married, moved to the suburbs and bought an overpriced mortgage. Unemployed people, latte sipping inner city renting types, students and shifty foreigners in their weird ethnic ghettoes are by definition untrue-Australians. Only Boat People and Aborigines are less Australian then the unemployed and by slamming them, others can feel self righteous about their own self-imposed destitution as a good and correct way to live.

quote:

Doing something would necessitate decreasing house prices. Right now the only economic hope for people with overpriced mortgages is to hold on to their houses until they die and write off the interest repayments as a cost of living or leverage their existing property to buy more mortgages (and plasma screen TVs) and possibly become some sort of serious property developer. If the government moves to lower or stabilise housing prices, people's investments would gradually or suddenly be eaten away at by inflation and the market. Right now neither party can afford the electoral cost of higher interest rates or lower price houses. Much like all the amateur property speculators in the country the government of the day just has to hope it won't be holding the baton when the bubble bursts.

Another option is for real property developers to take advantage of economies of scale to build medium and high density housing in the major capitals and selling the flats or townhouses for more affordable rates. Given that housing is a vital human infrastructure and demand for it is almost completely inflexible though, it's makes more sense to build the overpriced housing in the suburbs and sell that instead.

In all likelihood the bubble will simply have to burst and wipe out billions of dollars of investments and saddle vast swathes of the middle class with worthless mortgages. If the real estate advertorials are correct however and house prices are the natural result of the invisible hand of the market then house prices will continue rise and then eventually stabilise and everyone who bought overpriced houses in the assumption that they will continue to rise in price will loose out unless they sell. In the meantime anyone who doesn't currently own property will be locked out of the market and form a vilified tenant underclass.

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING

open24hours posted:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-36093703.html

Shame it would cost almost as much to visit as the place is worth. Being on a site for British expats I'm sure that's about twice the real price for something similar.

I can fly to Barcelona for about 100 euros* but then it's a 3h drive to the actual house as well, which as soon as you leave America or Australia becomes A Long Time.

You're right in that the only english-language websites I can find are British, and probably at 40%+ valuation. I might ask a Spanish friend what websites they use for house hunting and what regions are known as the go-to areas, I think I'd skip the surrounds of Barcelona and focus elsewhere. Inland Spain has gotta be terrible to navigate with all those hills.

*Incidentally the girlfriend is now trying to plan a Seville and Valencia trip to see friends, which would be Rome -> Seville -> Valencia -> Rome and cost about 183 euros for flights.

e: Also if you go through those photos it's literally a garden shed, you couldn't live in it. There have got to be tonnes of other places that are better value, you just won't find them on an English website

Graic Gabtar
Dec 19, 2014

squat my posts

Forget walking to get milk. A guy I know from Melbourne was sent to Detroit for a year for work. People in the office would walk up and abuse him for stealing a job - even getting aggressive.

He was back home in less than two months.

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING
Same thing happened here, a friend from England who worked for Unilever got sent for a 9month placement to Rome and the other staff there (all Italians) were super lovely at her, just treated her like crap and accused her of stealing jobs. I guess it was bad timing to send a new placement over at a time when they had just announced they were laying off like 3/4 of the department. But then again, apparently the Italian office is just remarkably unproductive and ineffective, so you can't blame Unilever for trimming some fat

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

Sulla-Marius 88 posted:

e: Also if you go through those photos it's literally a garden shed, you couldn't live in it. There have got to be tonnes of other places that are better value, you just won't find them on an English website

Yeah but six hectares, imagine all the donuts you could do.

Sulla Faex
May 14, 2010

No man ever did me so much good, or enemy so much harm, but I repaid him with ENDLESS SHITPOSTING

open24hours posted:

Yeah but six hectares, imagine all the donuts you could do.

The biggest reason I want to own property is so I can plant trees and plants and make a mini food forest that I can retreat to like some sort of disgusting hippy. No donuts

One of my dreams is to buy a plot of land for cheap and turn it into a forest and then camp there in a tent and poo poo in a grid

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

open24hours
Jan 7, 2001

Philistine.

[Edit: I've been dreaming about buying cheap land on the west coast of Tasmania and doing the same thing for a while now, but my girlfriend is passionately against it (and probably with good reason) so it remains a dream.]

open24hours fucked around with this message at 12:44 on Mar 4, 2015

  • Locked thread