|
I don't know that it's Christies scandals that have hurt him that bad or his seeming attempts to go back and forth from moderate to GOP firebrand multiple times before it even mattered and the idea that he gave Obama some sort of photo op by not telling him to gently caress off when he was viewing the damage from Sandy. GOP voters are very sore about that one still and it's really sad/funny.
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 01:04
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 09:02 |
|
|
I'd say it's probably some combination of the two, but those numbers are the polling equivalent of being booed off stage. That doesn't just happen. I wouldn't want to be Christie's local Dunkin' Donuts after he saw that poll. I mean, his negatives are only second to Donald "Not A Real Candidate" Trump and Christie hasn't even run a national campaign yet.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 01:12
|
|
|
DaveWoo posted:Wouldn't be too hard for the GOP to get a path to victory - they'd just need to take back Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and one of Colorado, New Hampshire, or Iowa. Whether they take back Florida depends on how active Tallahassee's voter suppression efforts are in South Florida. Jeb Bush is not remembered fondly down here except in terms of "Baal, Second Lord of the Pit, would be better than our current governor."
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 01:17
|
|
|
Basically what I'm getting from these maps is that the DNC is going to be dropping literal fucktons of money into Florida in 2016.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 01:21
|
|
|
Cythereal posted:Whether they take back Florida depends on how active Tallahassee's voter suppression efforts are in South Florida. Jeb Bush is not remembered fondly down here except in terms of "Baal, Second Lord of the Pit, would be better than our current governor." The big obstacle in Florida for the GOP is that it will be both a Presidential election and they won't be going against the sub-scout team Florida Democratic Party. Jeb would be a much bigger factor if it weren't two administrations since he was in. Add in his brother's ruining of the family name and his failure to turn Florida red the last two times and he's probably got a worse chance than Rubio of winning the state against Clinton.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 01:28
|
|
|
Bobby Jindal has a super PAC that's either promoting a Presidential run or a management seminar. It's kind of hard to tell. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fz9sfW91y84
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 01:39
|
|
|
Raskolnikov38 posted:Basically what I'm getting from these maps is that the DNC is going to be dropping literal fucktons of money into Florida in 2016. Maybe even moreso for the RNC. There are ways for them to win without Florida, but they're pretty far fetched. For instance this:  If you're the GOP candidate, you've pried 6 states compared to the 2012 Obama coalition, and you still lose becuase of Florida's importance. And even if you do win Florida, you still need AT LEAST Ohio, Virginia and one more. oldswitcheroo fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Mar 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 01:42
|
|
|
State EV maps are fun, but it's almost certainly the case that the candidate who wins the national popular vote will win enough electoral votes to become President 
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 01:45
|
|
|
Wisconsin isn't gonna go red come the gently caress on.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 02:06
|
|
|
Joementum posted:State EV maps are fun, but it's almost certainly the case that the candidate who wins the national popular vote will win enough electoral votes to become President Well then the GOP is even more hosed because since 1988 they've only won the popular vote once.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 02:07
|
|
|
Dominus Vobiscum posted:Starting with the 2012 map, let's say Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin flip red after historic post-VRA vote suppression efforts. Is Iowa, consistently blue excepting 2004, going to go against Hillary? Michigan? Iowa just overwhelmingly voted in the person who inspired this amusing t-shirt  I would not be surprised at all if Iowa voted for the republican in 2016.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 02:36
|
|
|
Dominus Vobiscum posted:What is the GOP's path to victory? I've been playing with electoral college numbers and having a hard time coming up with a way Hillary would lose without things going really badly for the Democrats. Consistently blue Iowa has two Republican senators, a Republican governor and three (out of four) of its house members are Republicans. I think they also control the legislature. Its less consistently blue than you think. So you can add that, Colorado and/or Virginia as states on that list that Republicans would need to win. Maybe NH too, its been sort of trending Democratic for awhile but NH likes to buck trends so we'll see. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 02:43 on Mar 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 02:39
|
|
|
Point being: there's so much money in the Presidential election now that all of the swing states will be over-targeted. Hillary will spend big in Florida... and in North Carolina, and in Virginia, and in Ohio, and in Colorado, and, yes, in Wisconsin. So much will be spent in each of these states that all of the available ad time will be bought by one campaign or the other. It will be well past the point of diminishing returns. It's possible that a campaign will get their message and/or organization better in one state than another, but this will likely be balanced out by a similar advantage by the other campaign elsewhere. The winning candidate is going to sweep all, or most, of the swing states, as Obama did in 2012 and Bush did in 2004.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 02:42
|
|
|
Dominus Vobiscum posted:What is the GOP's path to victory? I've been playing with electoral college numbers and having a hard time coming up with a way Hillary would lose without things going really badly for the Democrats. if the GOP takes wisconsin they've almost certainly taken iowa as well, which puts them over the top. they don't have a robust map but it's not impossible for them to win. edit: dems actually control the the IA senate, usually the state is fairly split but 2014 went poorly.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 02:42
|
|
|
SpiderHyphenMan posted:Wisconsin isn't gonna go red come the gently caress on. scott walker isn't above burning milwaukee to the ground the remaining pockets of religious-left farmer folk in the upper mississippi valley could also flip if the GoP can ever get some of their Hillary scandal-baiting to stick
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 02:46
|
|
|
SpiderHyphenMan posted:Wisconsin isn't gonna go red come the gently caress on. President Walker will see about that!
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 02:46
|
|
|
gently caress You And Diebold posted:President Walker will see about that!
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 02:58
|
|
|
Wisconsin went for Obama by 9.5% in 2012, Republicans aren't winning it in 2016 no matter who they run, barring a landslide.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 03:03
|
|
|
Slate Action posted:Wisconsin went for Obama by 9.5% in 2012, Republicans aren't winning it in 2016 no matter who they run, barring a landslide. 6.9%, actually and only 0.3% for Kerry in 2004. Obama campaigned aggressively there in 2012 to get that result. If a Republican wins in 2016, Wisconsin will have been in play.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 03:11
|
|
|
Slate Action posted:Wisconsin went for Obama by 9.5% in 2012, Republicans aren't winning it in 2016 no matter who they run, barring a landslide. obama won WI with 7 points. it would be a tough get for the gop for sure (especially since paul ryan was on the ballot in 2012), but i don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibility. there have been a few swings of that magnitude. virginia, for example, went to bush by about 8 points in 2004 and then went to obama by 7 and 4 points for his elections, respectively. obama won an electoral vote in nebraska in 2008 and then got wiped out by 7 points in 2012. indiana had a like 11 point swing away from obama between 08 and 2012. and that 2012 margin was about 10 points better for the democrat than 2004.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 03:13
|
|
|
gently caress, I misclicked on the Wikipedia map and got the stats for Michigan instead. Seven points would still be a hell of a swing in a climate where most people's votes are pre-decided.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 03:34
|
|
|
Joementum posted:State EV maps are fun, but it's almost certainly the case that the candidate who wins the national popular vote will win enough electoral votes to become President  
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 03:46
|
|
|
Like Joe said, it's usually the popular vote. Right now, with the low price of gas, views on social issues, and gradual recovery, the Democrats are the more popular party. The most likely event to change that is an economic meltdown, not the Republicans somehow finding a perfect candidate or the Democrats running a terrible one.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 05:10
|
|
|
Chamale posted:Like Joe said, it's usually the popular vote. Right now, with the low price of gas, views on social issues, and gradual recovery, the Democrats are the more popular party. The most likely event to change that is an economic meltdown, not the Republicans somehow finding a perfect candidate or the Democrats running a terrible one. Almost certainly... yet it happened less than 20 years ago. But no, I know it is unlikely. I just get sad when I think that we had to endure 8 years of Bush on a fluke.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 05:12
|
|
|
Dominus Vobiscum posted:What is the GOP's path to victory? I've been playing with electoral college numbers and having a hard time coming up with a way Hillary would lose without things going really badly for the Democrats. Flip Wisconsin, virginia, and Colorado on this map and I think you have the most credible path to republican victory in 16. It's a tough map but not outside the realm of possibility
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 05:13
|
|
|
Good Citizen posted:Flip Wisconsin, virginia, and Colorado on this map and I think you have the most credible path to republican victory in 16. It's a tough map but not outside the realm of possibility Colorado flipping seems extremely unlikely for a while. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 05:56
|
|
|
While that's the closest way to a GOP victory, I don't think it's gonna happen. In my scenario, the GOP nominates someone crazy or stupid. I'm bullish for the Dems because I think Hillary (or Bill) can take a couple states that went blue in 92/96 while also retaining the 2008 Obama coalition with Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana. I think the biggest stretches of my logic are Arkansas and Kentucky, but imo this map is certainly viable. edit this should be plus Nebraska-02 i say swears online fucked around with this message at 06:23 on Mar 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 06:20
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:While that's the closest way to a GOP victory, I don't think it's gonna happen. In my scenario, the GOP nominates someone crazy or stupid. I'm bullish for the Dems because I think Hillary (or Bill) can take a couple states that went blue in 92/96 while also retaining the 2008 Obama coalition with Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana. I think the biggest stretches of my logic are Arkansas and Kentucky, but imo this map is certainly viable. Indiana's gone blue only twice since 1940. It'd have to be a particularly crazy Republican candidate to push them back in the Democrats.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 06:31
|
|
|
emfive posted:Colorado flipping seems extremely unlikely for a while. Really, because they just voted out a sitting Democratic senator who wasn't exactly unpopular before the campaign began. Do you think that Alaska is going blue (like Pillowpantz sez) because it voted to legalize marijuana too?
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 06:32
|
|
|
there are two factions to the republican party to keep in mind for 2016, the establishment, who have rallied around jeb, and the tea party, who have rallied around themselves. Walker is the only candidate who can talk both Tea Party and Establishment, so he's a strong contender for future R veep.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 06:33
|
|
|
I vote that the GOP nominates Ted Cruz and that we liquidate all states that go red in the resulting election.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 06:49
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:While that's the closest way to a GOP victory, I don't think it's gonna happen. In my scenario, the GOP nominates someone crazy or stupid. I'm bullish for the Dems because I think Hillary (or Bill) can take a couple states that went blue in 92/96 while also retaining the 2008 Obama coalition with Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana. I think the biggest stretches of my logic are Arkansas and Kentucky, but imo this map is certainly viable. SC is probably more plausible than KY or AR at this point. I'd say Indiana and Missouri are out-of-reach, too, but I don't think I've ever read a good post-mortem of how Obama did so well there (particularly very white, pseudo-dixie Indiana) so who knows In the mid-South the electorate has just changed a lot over the past two decades. KY in '92:  KY in 2000:  KY in '12:  For reference, the four counties Obama won last time around were: Jefferson and Fayette - the counties of Louisville and Lexington, respectively. Urban areas with decent-sized minority and professional populations and big universities. Franklin - the county of Frankfort, the state capital, which is dominated by government employees and their dependents. Elliott - a weird, isolated little place in the mountains which has not voted Republican in any presidential or midterm election since its chartering, 145 years ago. That Obama carried these pretty narrowly is a mark of how grim things are. Republicans have successfully defined the democratic party as the party of minorities, big-city liberals and ivory-tower elites, all groups that are resented throughout the state. From personal experience I can tell you that all of those areas in Western KY that flipped can be considered deep deep red at this point, and probably would not flip back even if the Democrats nominated the ghost of Happy Chandler for the presidency. There are various reasons for this. Coal is dying (due to a combination of decreased demand and more accessible coal fields being played out) leading to the decline of organized labor and powerful resentment for government agencies perceived to be anti-coal. The national democratic party has taken much more liberal (and correct) stances on social issues, alienating the religious folk who dominate rural areas. And so on and so forth. Even if Hillary can retake some of the eastern mountain counties won by Gore and/or Kerry, there are not enough votes between them and the cities to outweigh the whole of the pennyrile (the unabashedly dixieland portion of the state), the western coal fields and the rural bluegrass. I wish I could say my state has the sense to vote correctly, but it is just not gonna happen in the foreseeable future*. Can't make such strong guarantees about the other mid-south states that I don' t know as well, but I reckon the outlook is much the same in AR, TN and WV, even if Bill's legacy helps make Arkansas a bit more competitive than it has been lately. Democratic gains in the South are much more likely in the Carolinas or Georgia. Also, while Bill could have won the general election without Ross Perot's presence, Perot was definitely a big factor in the southern states Bill took. No Ross Perot this time. While Hillary won't win these mid-South states and should not waste time/money trying, it might be cool if she polls just well enough to make the Republicans spend some money locking the region down. Money that could be spent in Virginia or Ohio. *unless the Republicans are actually dumb enough to nominate Ted Cruz, which puts about a dozen safe-R states into play. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 07:29 on Mar 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 07:07
|
|
|
It is hard to overstate the problems with the Indiana democratic party. The state party is more concerned with beating the Marion county democrats (Indianapolis) than any Republicans.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 07:11
|
|
|
Indiana is basically not going to happen. North Carolina has a decent chance though. One of the reasons Obama won NC in 2008 was incredibly high minority turnout at the time. The turnout wasn't quite as high in 2012, while rural turnout remained high let Romney squeak through. But a Hillary campaign should get enough cross-over women to flip that last percent back over to Blue, if played correctly.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 07:29
|
|
|
Slaan posted:Indiana is basically not going to happen. North Carolina has a decent chance though. One of the reasons Obama won NC in 2008 was incredibly high minority turnout at the time. The turnout wasn't quite as high in 2012, while rural turnout remained high let Romney squeak through. But a Hillary campaign should get enough cross-over women to flip that last percent back over to Blue, if played correctly. I'm not so sure on your last point, how much crossover minority vote did Obama receive?
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 07:44
|
|
|
State chat is silly. Let's talk about the possibilities of a recession, major terrorist attack, or Hillary Clinton having a serious health problem after the DNC.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 07:46
|
|
|
It's hard to see Hillary generating the sheer level of excitement that allowed Obama to fare well in (national-level) GoP strongholds like IN, MO and MT I don't think there will be any weird states in play this cycle. It will be the same swing-state slate as 2012
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 07:46
|
|
|
My Imaginary GF posted:I'm not so sure on your last point, how much crossover minority vote did Obama receive? Very little. Mostly because minorities tend to vote extremely blue, so gains were mostly from extra turnout rather than cross over. But women vote relatively equal across parties. Sharing the same sex won't matter for most women, but NC had recently been close enough that a .5% or 1% shift could tip things over. Even stealing votes on the margin matters in swing states.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 08:02
|
|
|
PupsOfWar posted:It's hard to see Hillary generating the sheer level of excitement that allowed Obama to fare well in (national-level) GoP strongholds like IN, MO and MT I don't know. The dems are doing well to start making women's issues that aren't bogged down by religious bullshit (abortion) into political issues. Obama giving nods to equal pay and childcare are things that Hillary could build on to chip away at the white, female republican vote. I mean, there is a limit to how much the GOP can thumb their noses at women's rights before they start bleeding votes.
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 08:17
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 09:02 |
|
OctoberBlues posted:Iowa just overwhelmingly voted in the person who inspired this amusing t-shirt The thing is, using bread bags as boot liners was a thing in Iowa. We used to do it when I was growing up in Sioux City in the 80s. It's a regional quirk that's probably a bit out of date, but it's really weird seeing the rest of the country act like it's something so strange. It was just a cheap way to keep your feet dry in the rain and slush.
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2015 09:05
|
|