Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Freezer posted:

It's also a pain in the rear end when you're one of the most indebted consumers in the world, making the burden of debt higher.

3% interest mortgages in an environment where deflation is 1-2% will be pretty amazing to watch.

And by amazing, I mean suicide inducing if it sticks around for awhile.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 08:59

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# ? May 23, 2024 15:25

David Corbett: Feb 6, 2008; Courage, my friends; 'tis not too late to build a better world.

Deflation would benefit some and hurt others. If you're a stereotypical Canadian or American who has saved nothing and is mortgaged to the hilt, you are Straight hosed because the value of your assets decline while the value of your liabilities stay the same. If you're a stereotypical German or Japanese that saves everything, though, you're in great shape. The opposite is true for inflation.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 13:28

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Deflation is very bad. Phone postin so look up deflationary spiral. Basically once your economy starts deflating, there's very little that can be done to break out of it. The logic is that once investment starts pulling back, more and more prior start losing their jobs. Since people are losing their jobs, consumer spending (amongst others) is reduced. Since consumer spending is reduced, prices decline. Since prices are declining it also means even more jobs are lost as businesses need to cut costs. And this is very bad because Canada's economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending (see housing).

There's a really good planet money episode on deflation. It should be easily googleable.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 14:08

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Canada is also in the position, having so many consumer products technically priced in USD, that we would have a lot of our prices increase without any of the normal benefits during that feedback loop.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 14:46

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/the-market-metric-the-bank-of-canada-is-watching-closely/article23385684/

quote:

The market metric the Bank of Canada is watching closely

The Bank of Canada�s latest communiqu� put it squarely in wait-and-see, data-dependent mode on interest rates, causing market participants to doubt whether further stimulus is in the offing.

But along with economic data, monetary policymakers clearly articulated their focus on financial conditions, which provides a few clues as to what could prompt the central bank to cut rates again.

The March statement was brief, as is common for interest rate decisions not accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report, but it did include a paragraph in which the Governing Council paid tribute to how financial conditions had �eased materially� since the Bank took out some insurance in January by reducing the overnight rate.

In his post mortem of the recent rate decision, TD Securities chief Canada macro strategist David Tulk noted the Bank�s emphasis on financial conditions.

�While data dependency is core to the next move in the overnight rate, the evolution of financial conditions are now equally important,� he wrote.

Long-time Bank of Canada followers may find this renewed focus on financial conditions to be a �back to the future� move for the central bank. After all, the Bank of Canada used a monetary conditions index, composed of the interest rate on 90-day commercial paper and a trade-weighted index of the Canadian dollar, as an operational target for monetary policy back in the 1990s.

The more broad Financial Conditions Index (FCI) developed by the Bank includes credit conditions, the corporate bond spread, short and long term interest rates, the real exchange rate, stock prices, and home values as its components.

As of March 6th, this index was sitting at 1.49 � above its level at the time of the reduction to the overnight rate in January (indicating that financial conditions have improved), but below where it was in early December. Granted, some of the variables in the FCI enter this equation with a lag. The real exchange rate, for instance, is a component that will contribute to the easing of financial conditions going forward.

But Mr. Tulk, who formerly worked at the central bank, warned that �financial conditions can be a fickle bedfellow.�

And outside of the exchange rate, there are precious few signs that financial conditions have eased materially in a manner that will benefit the real economy.

Per RateHub, the average discounted five-year fixed mortgage rate, the dominant product in the market, has declined by about 15 basis points to 2.54 per cent. Variable rate mortgage holders also had 15 basis points of the Bank of Canada�s cut passed along by lenders.

�It is doubtful that a 15-basis points reduction in the prime rate will lead to a wave of new borrowing,� said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets.

Using the iShares Canadian Corporate Bond Index and HYBrid Corporate Bond Index ETFs as proxies, borrowing costs for Canadian firms have marginally decreased since January 20th, the day before the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight rate.

Meanwhile, the yield on ten-year Government of Canada debt has actually increased over this stretch, with the nation importing higher rates from the United States that have been driven by the prospect of a tightening phase from the Federal Reserve commencing shortly.

Even with regards to the exchange rate, the data suggests it is U.S. dollar strength, rather than softness in the loonie, that has been the principal driver of the pair. The Canadian-dollar effective exchange rate index, a trade-weighted average of the loonie relative to currencies of the nation�s largest trading partners, is down more than 3 per cent since January 20th. Excluding the greenback, this index is flat over the same period.

This, to Mr. Tal, suggests that �we could have bought at least a portion of that insurance for free.�

Canadian investors should be aware that a notable appreciation in the value of the loonie relative to the U.S. dollar, particularly if due to weakness in the U.S. half of the pair, would undo the prime channel through which financial conditions have eased. This would increase the odds of the central bank taking out additional insurance, particularly if yields failed to fall in sympathy with any retreat in the greenback.

And with sentiment on the Canadian dollar increasingly negative, the pair is vulnerable to an abrupt reversal should the vast amount of shorts seek to unwind those positions en masse if economic data surprises to the upside or West Texas Intermediate crude oil appears to make a decisive move above $50 per barrel (U.S.).

Great article from Luke Kawa on exchange rate.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 15:19

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

ocrumsprug posted:

Canada is also in the position, having so many consumer products technically priced in USD, that we would have a lot of our prices increase without any of the normal benefits during that feedback loop.

So we'd basically look like Russia in the '90s, but without the remains of the Soviet support system to keep people from dying on the streets en masse.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 15:43

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Interest rates aren't as big a driver of the housing bubble as the CMHC. You don't see nearly the same lending behaviour on behalf of banks when it comes to business loans and stuff like that, and it's because those loans aren't being underwritten by the taxpayers. Drop the CMHC insurance limit to $300k, and watch housing prices cool off before your eyes...

Or increase down payment requirements, and make banks actually look at where the down-payment money is coming from, to make sure that it is not, itself, a debt.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 15:51

peter banana: Sep 2, 2008; Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Deflation is very bad. Phone postin so look up deflationary spiral. Basically once your economy starts deflating, there's very little that can be done to break out of it. The logic is that once investment starts pulling back, more and more prior start losing their jobs. Since people are losing their jobs, consumer spending (amongst others) is reduced. Since consumer spending is reduced, prices decline. Since prices are declining it also means even more jobs are lost as businesses need to cut costs. And this is very bad because Canada's economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending (see housing).

There's a really good planet money episode on deflation. It should be easily googleable.

is the solution a large public sector jobs program or does the decreased tax revenue from lost jobs and sales generally 86 that as well?

# ? Mar 11, 2015 16:06

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

peter banana posted:

is the solution a large public sector jobs program or does the decreased tax revenue from lost jobs and sales generally 86 that as well?

It's the solution so long as the government borrows heavily to fund it, and then pursues a pro-inflation strategy to devalue the debt in the medium term. I'm a bit removed from academe, but that's the way i remember it.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 16:08

Whiskey Sours: Jan 25, 2014; Weather proof.

PK loving SUBBAN posted:

It's the solution so long as the government borrows heavily to fund it, and then pursues a pro-inflation strategy to devalue the debt in the medium term. I'm a bit removed from academe, but that's the way i remember it.

Yes, this is basically what Japan is doing under Abe:

quote:

Abenomics is based upon "three arrows" of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms.[1] The Economist characterized the program as a "mix of reflation, government spending and a growth strategy designed to jolt the economy out of suspended animation that has gripped it for more than two decades."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abenomics

# ? Mar 11, 2015 16:16

Rick Rickshaw: Feb 21, 2007; I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Canadian housing starts fall sharply in February: �Trend is clearly toward weakness�

# ? Mar 11, 2015 17:26

sauer kraut: Oct 2, 2004

David Corbett posted:

Deflation would benefit some and hurt others. If you're a stereotypical Canadian or American who has saved nothing and is mortgaged to the hilt, you are Straight hosed because the value of your assets decline while the value of your liabilities stay the same. If you're a stereotypical German or Japanese that saves everything, though, you're in great shape. The opposite is true for inflation.

Savers are only in great shape if they secured fixed long-term yields, like a capital life insurance plan, back when the going was good.
If you carry money to the bank now enjoy your -1% interest rate, or nothing with increased fees on top.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 17:35

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://m.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1735460/vocal-academic-isnt-just-observer-vancouvers-real-estate-industry-hes

quote:

Vocal academic isn’t just an observer of Vancouver’s real estate industry – he’s part of it

Tsur Somerville’s institution has been sponsored by developers, and he’s done no peer-reviewed research into the city’s extreme unaffordability

IAN YOUNG IN VANCOUVER

Anyone hoping to get a handle on the mechanisms driving Vancouver’s eye-popping real estate market and the impact of Chinese money soon runs into the same problem: An apparent lack of data.

Data DOES exist (more on this later), but the supposed void has been filled with the opinions of a range of experts. And no pundit has been more enthusiastic than Dr Tsur Somerville, director of the UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate.

For years, Somerville, armed with a PhD in economics from Harvard, has been a driving force behind some key notions: That there is nothing terribly abnormal or bubbly about prices in Vancouver (where the average price of a detached house is about C$1.4million); that affordability is best addressed on the supply side with more development, and not by addressing demand; and that worrying about the impact of Chinese money is racist.

“This seems to be this decade’s version of the ‘Yellow Peril’,” he told a March 2013 forum on foreign investment, according to an account in The Tyee.

He added: “There's a long history on the West Coast of North America of worrying about some problem - whether it's low wages, venereal disease, the plague, whatever you want - and blaming it on the Chinese.”

WATCH: Vancouver’s unaffordability ranking 'unfair', says Somerville (2014)

Then in August last year, Somerville opined in the Globe And Mail that “the case of wealthy immigrants [in Vancouver] is not a housing problem, but a challenge to our perceptions”, and that “this leads to xenophobia, stereotyping and racist language more like that used in the early 20th century than we would like to characterize Canada’s 21st century”. Is this a reference to Canada’s racist head tax on Chinese immigrants? The rise of fascism? Whatever it is, it sounds frightening.

Somerville’s musings have sometimes veered into fantastical territory. In September 2013, at yet another panel discussion on affordability (this time hosted by his own Centre for Urban Economics), he tried pushing the notion that housing unaffordability in Vancouver wasn’t even about housing – it was about wages. “The idea that affordability has suddenly worsened is not new. It’s been around since the 1980s,” said Somerville, according to an uncritical account by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. “But rather than it being a housing issue, it’s more of an income issue,” he said, citing higher median incomes in places like Regina and Saskatoon.

(It’s true: Vancouver’s wages are very low. But to suggest the city’s globally remarkable unaffordability is mainly a function of low wages defies logic. Boost Vancouver’s median income by the hefty 28 per cent to match Regina’s or the 23 per cent to match Saskatoon’s, and it would scarcely matter: Vancouver would remain one of the most unaffordable cities in the world, and the most unaffordable in Canada by a huge margin)

Somerville’s preferred affordability solutions? More development. Cut lots in half to build more homes. Density. But whatever you do, don’t try to reduce demand or the flow of foreign money into Vancouver.

There are plenty who have enthusiastically embraced Somerville’s various positions – in October, Vancouver Sun columnist Pete McMartin hailed him “the only honest voice” in the debate and said Somerville should run for mayor. As for contrarians who looked for possible solutions in immigration policy, McMartin likened them to swastika-tattooed xenophobes.

Somerville’s colleagues at the UBC Sauder School of Business have also lined up in support. According to the REBGV’s account of the Centre for Urban Economics’ panel discussion, Dr Michael Goldberg, dean emeritus at Sauder, pondered whether Vancouver was actually unaffordable at all. “Remember that half of all sales are below the median price,” he offered. As for the impact of foreign money: “Foreign ownership is not a problem, it’s a solution,” said Goldberg.

Sponsorship and research

Now to the crux of the matter. While Somerville is enthusiastically cited - more than 100 times in theVancouver Sun alone in the past five years - little if any mention is made of an important fact: His Centre for Urban Economics is sponsored by the real estate industry. And his job is to prepare people to join that industry.

The centre’s sponsors have included the developers Grosvenor, Henderson Development, and the Vancouver chapter of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (all currently listed on the centre’s website), as well as Polygon Homes, the Canadian Home Builders’ Association and the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association (listed as sponsors as recently as 2012, along with Grosvenor).

The Centre for Urban Economics' currently listed sponsors: Grosvenor, Henderson Development, and the Commercial Real Estate Development Association.

And despite impressive credentials, Somerville hasn’t conducted a single piece of peer-reviewed research on what might be responsible for Vancouver’s outrageous unaffordability. He hasn’t recently done much peer-reviewed work at all: In the past decade, his entire peer-reviewed output amounts to three journal articles.

He’s been plenty busy though, teaching courses on real estate development, setting up student internships in the industry, and generally churning out new generations of real estate professionals. He is said to be an excellent and caring teacher, who helps students find jobs when they leave him.

He’s also delivered dozens of presentations, unhindered by the need for peer review. Here’s a sample of the titles: “Bubbles”, “Immigration and Real Estate”, “The Effect of Foreign Investment on Vancouver’s Housing Market”, and “Maybe the sky doesn’t have to fall”.

I began looking into Somerville’s relationship with the real estate industry back in early November last year, asking him for an interview about his research history, the centre’s sponsors and any personal funding he might have received from the sector (not to suggest corruption, but merely to establish whether any financial relationship existed).

He immediately sprang into action, albeit in an unexpected fashion: He fired off an email to my boss, asking for confirmation of my “claims” to be the South China Morning Post’s Vancouver correspondent and its former international editor, asking whether my employment terms were full-time or freelance, and even pondering whether someone with my purported background would be better employed in “London, Beijing or Washington” instead of Vancouver.

The Centre of Urban Economics' sponsors as listed in 2012: Grosvenor, Polygon Homes, the Canadian Home Builders’ Association and the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association.

Eventually, he agreed to an interview, postponed it, then said he would prefer to submit answers in writing instead. A week later, I got a response in which he declined to answer questions about the centre’s sponsors, or to describe any other funding he might have received from the property industry. “All of my work is in compliance with UBC Policy #97 on conflict of interest,” he said in his November 26 email. If I wanted details on the centre’s sponsors, I’d have to wait for the results of a Freedom of Information (FOI) search lodged on my behalf by UBC’s Access and Privacy Office.

As for his credentials, Somerville cited his publication of 18 peer-reviewed pieces on a range of subjects going back to 1987, although none speak directly to Vancouver’s current affordability situation. He also listed an extensive range of non-peer-reviewed articles and publications.

“From over twenty years of research in housing and real estate markets, training in urban, real estate, and housing economics, careful observation of the local real estate market, and analysis of this market for interest, research, teaching, presentations, and in answer to queries from the media I believe that I have a perspective on conditions and issues in the local housing and real estate market, including affordability, that is grounded in expertise,” he said.

When the FOI response finally came on February 19, it wasn’t exactly illuminating. In seeking a list of the centre’s sponsors and their contributions, “we requested records from the Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate,” said Courtney Waverick of the Office of the University Counsel. “The available records did not contain the information you requested.”

Waverick directed me instead to Brad Gamble, Sauder’s assistant dean, marketing and communications.

Gamble was prompt and quite helpful. He provided a table showing that the centre’s currently listed sponsors (Henderson, Grosvenor and the Commercial Real Estate Development Association) have provided C$33,200 since 2010. Gamble said outside sources provided 15.5 per cent of the centre’s funding, coming to C$10,216 in the most recent fiscal year. But it’s unclear who provided this since no funds were listed as coming from the aforementioned trio in 2014.

“There is no connection between Professor Tsur Somerville’s remuneration and any external sponsorship,” Gamble said, regarding Somerville’s salary of C$243,198. “Professor Somerville is a tenured professor at the Sauder School of Business, whose salary is paid entirely by the university.”

Gamble said Somerville “is not required to secure sponsors or do fundraising for the centre”. “However, in the past, to expand and improve the activities of the centre, he has reached out to external parties to help fund initiatives such as conferences and student case competitions,” he said. “There are no overarching conditions for sponsorship agreements for the centre.”

I asked Gamble last week about the other sponsors listed by the centre’s website in 2012. As of Wednesday, he had not responded.

A patina of academic impartiality

These levels of funding do not seem extraordinary - although I remain curious about the centre’s previously listed sponsors and whatever other funding Somerville may or may not have received. This kind of relationship between a professional school and its corporate benefactors would not be so problematic, were it not for Somerville’s frequent efforts to influence the debate surrounding housing affordability without the benefit of peer-reviewed research. It’s a discussion of major concern to his centre’s financial backers as well as his students and their employment prospects. And it’s being conducted with a patina of academic impartiality.

Somerville may not have conducted peer-reviewed research on what drives Vancouver’s prices, but others have. Notable has been UBC’s Dr David Ley, holder of the Canadian Research Chair in Geography, whose 2010 book Millionaire Migrants provides extensive peer-reviewed data that shows an “unusually decisive” correlation between immigration and house prices in Vancouver. In case you were wondering: Ley says he receives no funding from the real estate industry. And I doubt he receives many invitations to speak before the industry either.

As for non-peer-reviewed data, Landcor, the Vancouver property industry’s number-cruncher of choice, found in 2011 that 74 per cent of luxury home purchases in Vancouver’s Westside and Richmond in the previous year were made by mainland Chinese buyers. And the buying continues apace.

The academic wing of the real estate industry

Since I started asking questions about the Centre for Urban Economics’ links to the real estate industry, Somerville seems to have wavered on the role of foreign money in Vancouver’s market. “It certainly appears to be the case” that foreign money has been at play, especially the city’s west side, he reportedly told the Vancouver Sun on December 4.

But this comes after years of Somerville tarring those who fretted over the impact of Chinese money as ill-informed and possibly racist. His recent remarks are merely a case of shutting the stable door after the dragon has well and truly bolted.

Somerville, of course, remains entitled to his opinions and he’s entitled to share them, whatever they may be. But anyone considering their value would do well to recognise the Centre Urban Economics for what it is: The academic wing of Vancouver’s real estate industry. And Dr Somerville isn’t merely an observer of that industry. He’s a part of it.

This is a great read about one of Vancouver's biggest loving shitheads.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 20:18

Kalenn Istarion: Nov 2, 2012; Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

Professor Shark posted:

Wow, that's really, really crass.

I understand that some couples are terrified at how much their out-of-control weddings are going to cost them per guest, but...

I had a big expensive wedding, and anyone who suggests a gift amount should be taken out and shot. I did it because it was fun and I wanted to (as did my wife), not because of some expectation of a gift of matching value. Jesus Christ.

Cultural Imperial posted:

gently caress japadog

Counterpoint, Japadpg is delicious.

ascendance posted:

I live in the wilds of York. I will make you a sandwich if you walk my dog for me.

Please keep all sexual propositions in the market subforum thanks

# ? Mar 11, 2015 22:05

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://m.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1735460/vocal-academic-isnt-just-observer-vancouvers-real-estate-industry-hes

This is a great read about one of Vancouver's biggest loving shitheads.

Every time I read one of his supposedly-impartial 'academic' quotes, I'm further embarrassed about having a UBC degree.

# ? Mar 11, 2015 22:38

ductonius: Apr 9, 2007; I heard there's a cream for that...

Kalenn Istarion posted:

Counterpoint, Japadpg is delicious.

Counter-counterpoint: while delicious, a hotdog with roe and nori is not worth $6.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 00:11

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Who cares your money is worthless anyway. If you can afford an overpriced shithouse on 2.5% interest you sure as poo poo can lean on a heloc and buy a 6 buck hotdog.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 00:18

meatcookie: Jun 2, 2007

@ baronjutter... I owe you a bit of an apology. I thought you were being slightly hyperbolic WRT to vibrantvictoria forums being masturbatorily pro-developer but I see now, in the course of looking for something else entirely*, that you were understating the severity of the cognitive deficit present on that forum. Utterly astounding.

*looking for a Strava KOM time for Bear Mtn Parkway that isn't Ryder Hesjedahl.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 01:32

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

It's OK he's a doper so it doesn't matter

# ? Mar 12, 2015 02:38

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Let's talk about more idiotic choices in urban planning!

The Calgary Board of Education has lately been whining that it needs many more schools, schools are over-capacity, and they need more money. Well, uh, that's not strictly true.

http://www.660news.com/2015/03/11/cbe-requesting-less-school-modernizations-due-to-financial-downturn/

It turns out we're projected to go up to 89 percent system utilization next year, up two percent from the current rate. What's the problem, then? Well, you see, all the assholes with kids move to the ends of the goddamn earth (aided and abetted by gently caress-rear end developers and a terminally impotent city council full of fucks, assholes, and morons) and then wonder why there's no school there. Maybe Prentice was right, and Albertans are to blame for our budget crunch. Maybe the CBE could reduce class sizes if we used school capacity that already exists instead of building new schools in Buttfucking Egypt (all of which incur certain recurring costs, apart from construction). But, no, clearly the answer is "we need more money! More money all the time!"

Even if we had a lot of extra money with a decent tax structure, it would still be a horrendous waste of money that could be better spent on pretty much anything else.

Next person I hear complain about how there isn't a school in their neighbourhood is getting kicked right in the oval office or testicles. Move to where the school is, you goddamn whiny morons, or quit bitching about long commutes.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 03:14

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Not to mention the oil bubble bursting in addition to causing less private sector spending, will also affect public sector spending through things such as hiring freezes or halting new construction projects.

There's also a multi-million dollar hole in the budget since Alberta thought $75 dollar would last forever, not to mention the big population migration into Alberta's means more costs for infrastructure due to all the new subdivisions getting built.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 03:20

PC LOAD LETTER: May 23, 2005; WTF?!

Whiskey Sours posted:

Yes, this is basically what Japan is doing under Abe:

Yea he is sorta doing it in a dumb way though. He wasn't really doing much to get wages to increase to deal with the inflation without everyone becoming poorer as cost rose. Relatively recently he started getting serious about trying to fix that but he hasn't had much success last I heard.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 03:38

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Lol like we care about Alberta's children. gently caress em and their pet rodeo donkeys

# ? Mar 12, 2015 03:39

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Cultural Imperial posted:

Lol like we care about Alberta's children. gently caress em and their pet rodeo donkeys

Like we care about children anywhere in the country, frankly. I mean, we should probably try to educate them, but I don't see why we should fight what are clearly losing battles against their moron parents who move to a place with no school and then moan about it.

It'd be more typical to start with wild pony races or mutton busting than anything involving a donkey, by the way.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 03:49

MickeyFinn: May 8, 2007; Biggie Smalls and Junior Mafia some mark ass bitches

PT6A posted:

Let's talk about more idiotic choices in urban planning!

The Calgary Board of Education has lately been whining that it needs many more schools, schools are over-capacity, and they need more money. Well, uh, that's not strictly true.

http://www.660news.com/2015/03/11/cbe-requesting-less-school-modernizations-due-to-financial-downturn/

Frank Coppinger posted:

We�re trying to be respective of the economic condition in Alberta, so we�ve downgraded our expectation this year, [c]ertainly the driver is new schools, but an equal driver is the modernization in order to deliver the curriculum.

Is this a correct usage of this word in Canada or is this guy just dumb?

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:02

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

MickeyFinn posted:

Is this a correct usage of this word in Canada or is this guy just dumb?

He don't engrish well.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:04

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

MickeyFinn posted:

Is this a correct usage of this word in Canada or is this guy just dumb?

No, the guy's either a moron or the person who typed the quote's a moron (660 hardly ever proofreads their articles, because I believe they are run by chimpanzees), or perhaps both.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:05

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

I wonder if Alberta will do the massive budget cut/austerity solution over the next few years.

Because god forbid you raise taxes or don't have a balanced budget during a crisis situation to make up lost oil royalty revenue.

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

Yea he is sorta doing it in a dumb way though. He wasn't really doing much to get wages to increase to deal with the inflation without everyone becoming poorer as cost rose. Relatively recently he started getting serious about trying to fix that but he hasn't had much success last I heard.

Basically Japan has big structural problems such as unbalanced demographics, fear of job stealing immigrants and also a rigid outdated work culture that can't be miracled away with things like QE.

etalian fucked around with this message at 04:33 on Mar 12, 2015

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:31

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

peter banana posted:

is the solution a large public sector jobs program or does the decreased tax revenue from lost jobs and sales generally 86 that as well?

Here's a good article on deflation.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704249004575384944103200032

quote:

By JON HILSENRATH
Updated July 26, 2010 12:01 a.m. ET
(Please see Corrections and Amplifications below.)

The old bogeyman of deflation has re-emerged as a worry for the U.S. economy. Here's something else to fret about : After studying more than a decade of deflation in Japan, economists have slowly realized they have no idea how it works.

Deflation is usually associated with a Great Depression-like drop in demand. Consumer prices, incomes and asset prices fall. Interest rates go to zero, as low as they can go. As prices and incomes fall, the cost to borrowers of servicing debt does not, sucking life out of the economy and pushing prices down further. A bad situation, in short, gets worse.

In 1932, U.S. consumer prices fell 10% and between 1929 and 1933 they fell 27% in all.

But Japan's experience has looked nothing like this. Rather than being deep, destructive and concentrated in a few years, deflation has been a surprisingly mild, drawn-out affair. Consumer prices have been falling in Japan for 15 years, but never by more than 2% in any single year. Japan's deflation has been a morass, but not the destructive downward spiral many economists predicted. Why? And what does it portend for the rest of the world today?

Economists don't have good answers. "We don't know how deflation works," says Adam Posen, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee who has been studying Japan since 1997. "We don't have a way of rationalizing steady, several-year flat deflation," he says.

This is a pressing issue for the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks. Ireland is already experiencing deflation. Spain has flirted with it. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge was up 1.3% in June from a year earlier, below its informal target of 1.5% to 2%. Some officials worry prices could go negative if the recovery falters.

On paper, Japan looked like a candidate for a deflationary spiral. The economy consistently grew slower than estimates of its capacity to grow. Unemployment rose from 2.1% in the early 1990s to more than 5% a decade later. That growing economic slack should have driven prices down and down. Large burdens of delinquent loans at banks should have exacerbated the debt burden on society.

But that didn't happen. Old textbook tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation might not be working the way they used to. The standard Phillips Curve theory, named after Alban William Phillips who helped explain it, is that when unemployment rises, inflation falls.

Fed officials saw evidence in the U.S. before the crisis that this dynamic might have gotten less powerful over time, meaning a big rise in unemployment might not create the kind of deflationary shock it would have in the past.

Japan's experience reinforces that view. Mr. Posen cautions that this might help explain short-run shifts in unemployment and inflation behavior, but Japan remains a puzzle because its problems persisted so long. Perhaps economists misread how much slack there was in the economy in the first place.

Another explanation turns on the psychology of households and businesses, which modern economists believe plays a big role in driving inflation. If people believe inflation is going to rise a lot, they will demand higher wages and push up prices. If people believe prices won't move or they expect them to fall, they will act accordingly and create the environment they expect. Japan might be stuck in a slow deflation because over time it is what Japanese households and business became conditioned to expect. Even when the economy recovered between 2002 and 2007, prices kept falling.

Government plays a role, too. Japanese officials responded to their crisis, but many U.S. economists complained officials failed to cut interest rates quickly enough early in the crisis, pulled back fiscal stimulus too soon and were too slow to clean up banks and restructure inefficient industries.

Government intervention might have helped to keep Japan's economy from going through the floor, but it might not have been aggressive enough to truly revitalize the economy and set it in a different direction, says Mark Gertler, a New York University economist who studied Japan's malaise with Ben Bernanke in the 1990s.

There are other explanations. Japan's aging consumers, for instance, might have been more inclined to save for retirement and more reluctant to spend, undermining consumer demand and weighing on prices.

For the U.S., there are good and bad implications in this. "This is the most significant economic issue there is out there," Mr. Gertler says.

The good news is that the Fed might not need to fear a Depression-style deflationary spiral. The bad news is that if the U.S. does fall into deflation, it could be stuck there for many years like Japan, and suffer the subpar growth that has gone with it. And because deflation is so poorly understood, policy makers could discover they have no good solutions.

Corrections and Amplifications

A chart accompanying a previous version of this column incorrectly showed the change from a year earlier in the level of U.S. consumer prices between January 1928 and May 1944, not the percentage change, as indicated by the scale. A corrected version of the chart appears below.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:37

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

PT6A posted:

Like we care about children anywhere in the country, frankly. I mean, we should probably try to educate them, but I don't see why we should fight what are clearly losing battles against their moron parents who move to a place with no school and then moan about it.

It'd be more typical to start with wild pony races or mutton busting than anything involving a donkey, by the way.

one of you is becoming a parody of themselves, but I'm not sure which anymore

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:50

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

JawKnee posted:

one of you is becoming a parody of themselves, but I'm not sure which anymore

It could be both. Honestly, the more cynical I become, the more I think CI has a decent point and this city, and all the miserable assholes who dwell within it, should suffer for their stupidity, greed and sloth.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:52

apatheticman: May 13, 2003; Wedge Regret

Just another signpost on all signs point to duh for Calgary City Council being in the back pocket of developers.

Bit of back story, Shane Homes, owned by Cal Wenzel is kind of a piece of poo poo, he's suing Nenshi for a libel for some comments he made during the campaign trail with some remarks he made about about Cal being like the Godfather.

Cbc, because Herald has a paywall posted:

In an unusual move at this Monday�s council meeting, Magliocca asked administration to come up with something he can present to the company at an upcoming event.

�I like to reward them with a plaque from the City of Calgary. GM Fielding, how do I go about that?� he said.

�Your worship, we'll take that under advisement and get back to council in terms of what can do for that,� city manager Jeff Fielding replied.

�The recognition will on the 27th of March, so I'd like to have something on that before that,� Magliocca said.

Nenshi says it is not the city's practice to reward philanthropy, given that so many companies make major donations to charities.

He says it would be odd to single out one organization.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/joe-magliocca-wants-calgary-to-honour-shane-homes-despite-nenshi-lawsuit-1.2987653

Now the fun part of this is Cal isn't as philanthropic as he would have you believe.

The total of his "donations" is over inflated because he counts his homes that he sells to the various home lotteries as the full amount where as the lotteries buy them at market.

So basically this singles out Magliocca as a gigantic shill and probably his other "fiscally conservative" buddy Chu as well.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:54

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

Whiteycar posted:

Just another signpost on all signs point to duh for Calgary City Council being in the back pocket of developers.

Does there even exist a city anymore where this does not ring true?

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:56

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Mutton Busting sounds dirty. That is all.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:57

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

"Does Calgary, unlike a number of places in BC, not put the developer of a new sub-division on the hook for all the associated infrastructure like sewer, roads and schools", he asked like a simpleton?

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:57

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Whiteycar posted:

Just another signpost on all signs point to duh for Calgary City Council being in the back pocket of developers.

Bit of back story, Shane Homes, owned by Cal Wenzel is kind of a piece of poo poo, he's suing Nenshi for a libel for some comments he made during the campaign trail with some remarks he made about about Cal being like the Godfather.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/joe-magliocca-wants-calgary-to-honour-shane-homes-despite-nenshi-lawsuit-1.2987653

Now the fun part of this is Cal isn't as philanthropic as he would have you believe.

The total of his "donations" is over inflated because he counts his homes that he sells to the various home lotteries as the full amount where as the lotteries buy them at market.

So basically this singles out Magliocca as a gigantic shill and probably his other "fiscally conservative" buddy Chu as well.

I like his "Nenshi-suing" policy, but I hate his "developing lovely assfuck suburbs" policy.

Is there some way where both he and Nenshi could end up jobless and destitute? Because that would really be ideal.

I think Sean Chu may well have escaped from some sort of assisted living facility for people with intellectual disabilities. He doesn't even make sense when he talks.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:58

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

ocrumsprug posted:

"Does Calgary, unlike a number of places in BC, not put the developer of a new sub-division on the hook for all the associated infrastructure like sewer, roads and schools", he asked like a simpleton?

Lol no. For his massive physical and rhetorical presence, Nenshi is actually loving useless at getting good policies passed.

But he sure has a good twitter account!

# ? Mar 12, 2015 04:59

apatheticman: May 13, 2003; Wedge Regret

THC posted:

Does there even exist a city anymore where this does not ring true?

Probably not but gently caress if that move didnt just pull back the curtain it basically tore it down.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 05:00

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

PT6A posted:

Lol no. For his massive physical and rhetorical presence, Nenshi is actually loving useless at getting good policies passed.

But he sure has a good twitter account!

What an evil man, dictating Albertan's stupid rear end policy since before you were even born. No wonder you hate him so.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 05:02

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# ? May 23, 2024 15:25

apatheticman: May 13, 2003; Wedge Regret

ocrumsprug posted:

"Does Calgary, unlike a number of places in BC, not put the developer of a new sub-division on the hook for all the associated infrastructure like sewer, roads and schools", he asked like a simpleton?

They do, but it takes a lot more to facilitate those people than just the infrastructure in that development.

# ? Mar 12, 2015 05:03

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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