|
Rob Portman seems to be the favoured VP ideal. Assuming Hillary is the nominee on the other side, it has to be either Julian Castro or a boring white guy (ideally Tim Kaine)
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 01:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 11, 2024 16:57 |
|
|
Cigar Aficionado posted:Rob Portman seems to be the favoured VP ideal. What if she sees their Rob Portman and raises them a Sherrod Brown? 
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 01:23
|
|
|
Serious question: What happens if something happens to Hilary between now and the general election? I mean, there has been talk of her health, and let's say, for the sake of argument, that the blood clot she had was more serious than was let on. Is it Elizabeth Warren? Biden? I mean, talk about putting all your eggs in one basket with Hilary.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 01:28
|
|
|
Depends on when it happens, but likely total chaos with a crowded field that's harder to winnow since everyone will get a ton of free media attention. That's what happened (twice!) in 1968. I doubt it'd be Warren, though. I don't think she wants it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 01:36
|
|
|
Yeah I think Biden would probably be strongest in such a case but not by more than 15% to his nearest competitor.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 01:44
|
|
|
It seems like just concern trolling, like what does this speculation accomplish? But I would say Romney runs as a Democrat. He was already trying out the common man/income inequality messaging before he dropped out!
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 02:18
|
|
|
Raskolnikov38 posted:Yeah I think Biden would probably be strongest in such a case but not by more than 15% to his nearest competitor. What's wrong with Joe Biden, anyway? I'm young enough that I haven't been around for most of his career, but when I read the New Yorker profile of him half a year ago, I was very impressed. The man seems to have his head on straight when it comes to foreign policy, and he's honest, too. There's an interesting point about a plan to partition Iraq he came up with. It seemed a bit ridiculous back in 2006. It seems less ridiculous now. Nobody actually cares about the gaffe thing, and if plagiarism mattered Lincoln wouldn't have won two Oscars. From where I'm standing, he'd be a much better President than HRC. He's not going to be nominated unless Hillary bows out, but I see no reason not to hope something happens and she does. Am I wrong?
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 02:19
|
|
|
Cigar Aficionado posted:Rob Portman seems to be the favoured VP ideal. Why doe people want Tim Kaine as anything? He's the worst kind of boring white guy in that you remember who he is. At least Rob Portman has the decency to be bland and boring enough that every time I see his name I wonder who the gently caress he is for a couple seconds. Plus whoever gets picked at Hillary's VP is first in line for the next round. Why waste it on a no hope like Tim Kaine?
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 02:26
|
|
|
Gyges posted:At least Rob Portman has the decency to be bland and boring enough that every time I see his name I wonder who the gently caress he is for a couple seconds. Same here, and I've lived in Ohio my entire life.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 02:30
|
|
|
Vienna Circlejerk posted:What if she sees their Rob Portman and raises them a Sherrod Brown? Aw, don't be a tease.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 02:37
|
|
|
Joementum posted:Depends on when it happens, but likely total chaos with a crowded field that's harder to winnow since everyone will get a ton of free media attention. That's what happened (twice!) in 1968. But that's exactly why she'd be good. She just wants to sit in her remote shack and feed the cat, and every once in a while seven silver ships will land and men will come out and ask her questions, and then leave.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 02:42
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Why doe people want Tim Kaine as anything? He's the worst kind of boring white guy in that you remember who he is. At least Rob Portman has the decency to be bland and boring enough that every time I see his name I wonder who the gently caress he is for a couple seconds. Kaine's only 57. He could conceivably run for President in 2024. He's also from an important, emerging swing state.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 02:50
|
|
|
Paul Ryan couldn't even pull the needle for Mitt Romney an inch in his home district, let alone state. The Idea that a favourite son effect is worth a vice presidential slot any more is silly.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 03:00
|
|
|
Cigar Aficionado posted:Kaine's only 57. He could conceivably run for President in 2024. He's also from an important, emerging swing state. 57 year old Virginians/Floridians/Ohioans have got to be a dime a dozen. And the VP isn't carrying his state by reason of existing anymore. He's a boring guy who ran the party shittily and looks like a used car salesman.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 03:06
|
|
|
Wabbit posted:It seems like just concern trolling, like what does this speculation accomplish? But I would say Romney runs as a Democrat. He was already trying out the common man/income inequality messaging before he dropped out! Why is having a question about who would be the presumptive nominee if, for some reason, the presumptive nominee wasn't in the race anymore, concern trolling? I mean, it's not inconceivable that an almost 69 year old woman could have a serious health concern that would make her decide she shouldn't run. They were having age concerns about Reagan in 1984 when he was 73.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 03:09
|
|
|
DynamicSloth posted:Paul Ryan couldn't even pull the needle for Mitt Romney an inch in his home district, let alone state. The Idea that a favourite son effect is worth a vice presidential slot any more is silly. Yeah, I'm probably wrong here ^, as it looks like Palin's reputation went south after the campaign was over. BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 03:30 on Mar 14, 2015 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 03:17
|
|
|
Omi-Polari posted:But they can hurt you (such as Sarah Palin). There's some evidence that Palin ended up helping McCain by turning out more of the base, but it's very difficult to discern any impact in these things.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 03:19
|
|
|
Joementum posted:There's some evidence that Palin ended up helping McCain by turning out more of the base, but it's very difficult to discern any impact in these things. His campaign ultimately crashed and burned, but he never had a chance in 2008. At least Palin was a dynamic choice and brought excitement to his campaign for a time. If she had actually been a real conservative firebrand instead of grifter he might have made a stronger go of it but the reality was no Republican was going to beat Obama that year.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 03:46
|
|
|
amanasleep posted:His campaign ultimately crashed and burned, but he never had a chance in 2008. At least Palin was a dynamic choice and brought excitement to his campaign for a time. If she had actually been a real conservative firebrand instead of grifter he might have made a stronger go of it but the reality was no Republican was going to beat Obama that year. He might have had a chance in 2008 if the economy hadn't fallen apart in the middle of the campaign like a car in a slapstick comedy movie.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 04:08
|
|
|
Rick Perry has a slightly expansive idea of the scandals involving the Clintons. HALDEMAN: Pants suits. PRESIDENT: Jesus Christ.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 04:21
|
|
|
GhostofJohnMuir posted:He might have had a chance in 2008 if the economy hadn't fallen apart in the middle of the campaign like a car in a slapstick comedy movie. Yeah, that was pretty much it. It was a bigger convention bump than usual, and it stuck pretty much exactly until the market crashed. Before that he had no real chance, afterward he hilariously had no chance.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 04:41
|
|
|
Gyges posted:57 year old Virginians/Floridians/Ohioans have got to be a dime a dozen. And the VP isn't carrying his state by reason of existing anymore. He's a boring guy who ran the party shittily and looks like a used car salesman. He's a safe choice, and he's popular known quantity in his home state. He's not going to be incredible but he can be a pretty solid choice for VP.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 04:49
|
|
|
Joementum posted:There's some evidence that Palin ended up helping McCain by turning out more of the base, but it's very difficult to discern any impact in these things.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 05:41
|
|
|
If McCain had been a stronger candidate he'd have probably gotten to actually pick the person he wanted, Joe Lieberman. Who knows how that would have played though really its immaterial since the financial crisis occurred and, though McCain basically didn't have a shot before that he certainly didn't after it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 05:46
|
|
|
FMguru posted:The problem with VP picks that boost the main candidate is that if a candidate is in a position where a VP pick increases his chances, then his chances were very low to begin with. I always think about Dukakis choosing Bentsen in 1988, which was very well received across most of the party - and was itself a measure of how deep a hole the Dukakis campaign was in that putting Lloyd Bentsen on the ticket was a big boost. McCain getting a nice bump from Palin was a measure of how unimpressed his base was with him until the pick, and a sign of the trouble he was in. By the time you announce your VP choice, you should already have a mobilized unified party base behind you and the pick should be fairly immaterial to your numbers. If not, then it's a flashing warning light. Veep pick can genuinely shore up a strong candidate if they are well-equipped to win but have some massive single-issue-voter problem with their base. Don't know that there's really been any single-issue-voter bloc that fits that bill since Segregation, though.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 06:01
|
|
|
nrook posted:What's wrong with Joe Biden, anyway? I'm young enough that I haven't been around for most of his career, but when I read the New Yorker profile of him half a year ago, I was very impressed. The man seems to have his head on straight when it comes to foreign policy, and he's honest, too. There's an interesting point about a plan to partition Iraq he came up with. It seemed a bit ridiculous back in 2006. It seems less ridiculous now. I would think that the largest concern about Biden would be his age - he'd be 3 years older than Reagan was when he began his first term. Granted, Biden has been active enough as Veep that there's no sign of any senility so far, but that's a long time to be counting.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 07:31
|
|
|
What are O'Malleys chance of getting the VP slot, assuming he doesn't get the nom? The more I read about him the more I like him, although I'm in the minority with that opinion probably.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 07:38
|
|
|
nrook posted:What's wrong with Joe Biden, anyway? I'm young enough that I haven't been around for most of his career, but when I read the New Yorker profile of him half a year ago, I was very impressed. The man seems to have his head on straight when it comes to foreign policy, and he's honest, too. There's an interesting point about a plan to partition Iraq he came up with. It seemed a bit ridiculous back in 2006. It seems less ridiculous now. Dude could do with laying off touching women inappropriately in public
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 07:47
|
|
|
His record on the war on drugs is awful, also. there is a huge amount of human suffering that has resulted from the policies he has pushed.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 07:53
|
|
|
SKELETONS posted:What are O'Malleys chance of getting the VP slot, assuming he doesn't get the nom? The more I read about him the more I like him, although I'm in the minority with that opinion probably. Probably none. The Clinton's just love their political enemies after all! Realistically speaking Clinton will probably be in the catbird's seat this election and will be able to afford to choose someone she actually wants to work with/has a use for. I've seen nothing to show that O'Malley has those traits.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 08:20
|
|
|
SKELETONS posted:His record on the war on drugs is awful, also. there is a huge amount of human suffering that has resulted from the policies he has pushed. Also, backing the bankruptcy revisions from ten years back and the ties pertaining thereto.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 09:08
|
|
|
Quidam Viator posted:I don't know, I feel like this is some weird inverse form of Obama derangement syndrome. Obama is the Mule.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 09:46
|
|
|
No, have faith. It's all part of the plan. Surely Seldon has predicted this and all will turn out well.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 13:33
|
|
|
eviltastic posted:Also, backing the bankruptcy revisions from ten years back and the ties pertaining thereto. Also he [Biden] was one of the top backers of the RIAA and continues to be so from his VP position.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 13:49
|
|
|
Shageletic posted:A pretty interesting article on Hillary's capability: I'd love to see an updated version of this graph every week: 
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 14:38
|
|
|
Cigar Aficionado posted:Kaine's only 57. He could conceivably run for President in 2024. He's also from an important, emerging swing state. Hillary will choose Castro, obviously, if only to give all the red scare Republicans a heart attack.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 15:22
|
|
|
Sir Tonk posted:Hillary will choose Castro, obviously, if only to give all the red scare Republicans a heart attack. Yeeeees, it's catching on
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 15:49
|
|
|
baw posted:I'd love to see an updated version of this graph every week: 
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 15:59
|
|
|
Cliff Racer posted:If McCain had been a stronger candidate he'd have probably gotten to actually pick the person he wanted, Joe Lieberman. Who knows how that would have played though really its immaterial since the financial crisis occurred and, though McCain basically didn't have a shot before that he certainly didn't after it. Think the country was so anti-Republican at that time it wouldn't have mattered but looking back on it now a Republican and Democrat on the same ticket would of been amazing for toning down the polarization that got worst during Obama.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 16:14
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 11, 2024 16:57 |
|
|
baw posted:I'd love to see an updated version of this graph every week: Sanders 
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2015 16:16
|
|