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Reminds me of a story I read on the NYT about some Brazilian senators from the past, who were of course very corrupt. One senator tried to kill another one with a gun during a senate session, but ended up killing a third unrelated one. He did not go to jail, since the judge decreed that his intention had been to kill the first senator and not the one he actually murdered, so it was all OK.
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Mar 12, 2015 23:58
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That trigger-happy senator was the grandfather of one of our presidents. Political dynaties are very much a thing here. Still about Aecio, his popularity is a mix of factors. He's young, and relatively unknown by most people outside of his home state, which means that they tend to go with their positive first impression. He's also not from the crusty, older generation of PSDB politicians that A) borked the country something fierce in the 90s, and B) failed again and again to sway the elections back to their side. He's not particularly charismatic, but also not a stick in the mud lie, say, SP governor Geraldo Alckmin. And his last name, Neves, is due to him being the grandson of legendary brazilian politician Tancredo Neves, a bigshot across several governments from the1940s and onward, the guy who negotiated the end of the dictatorship in the 1980s with himself as the transition president, then promptly keeled over dead and left the country with his insanely corrupt vice-president Jose Sarney in one of the biggest anticlimaxes in the history of ever. So he's fresh, has the right political pedigree, the media backing and the cash to be the great white hope.
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Mar 13, 2015 01:27
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Sephyr posted:That trigger-happy senator was the grandfather of one of our presidents. Political dynaties are very much a thing here. Yeah, the article also mentioned his descendency I think. Is there more on that story? Or some names attached. I just find it extremely hilarious, coming from a country that has had (and still has) its fair deal of corruption.
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Mar 13, 2015 01:36
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Sephyr posted:That trigger-happy senator was the grandfather of one of our presidents. Political dynaties are very much a thing here. I still can't believe Alckmin got reelected with like 60%.
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Mar 13, 2015 01:37
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Badger of Basra posted:I still can't believe Alckmin got reelected with like 60%. To be fair, the field of candidates was dismal. And the whole water-crisis thing was kept under wraps until after the elections. Not to mention his own little scandal, where a foreign Siemens exec basically confessed that he took part in shady stuff in the hundreds of millions with the Sao Paulo government, and yet there was little to no repercussion in the media and the investigation basically stopped at the small fry. Alckmin doesn't have the same teflon coating as Aecio, but the state is PSDB's last real stronghold and it will set the world on fire before it lets go of it.
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Mar 13, 2015 01:45
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Setting the world on fire is a lot easier if you don't have any water 
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Mar 13, 2015 01:47
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TheImmigrant posted:Argentina (and Uruguay) are the most white-bread countries in the Western Hemisphere. Most sources I read say that Argentina's population is 97% white - mostly of Italian, Spanish, and German descent. I think the big distinction to make is that Porteños (people from Buenos Aires) are white as gently caress, but Argentina is quite large and there are a lot of mestizo communities- still well below the rest of Latin America's average ratio of non-white people, though. And there is a very real cultural difference between Porteños and the rest of Argentinians. Most negative stereotypes that other Latin Americans have regarding Argentinians are actually about Porteños. Uruguay, on the other hand, is white-bread as they come, and the casual racism of both countries is astonishing. Oh, and Uruguay genocided its indigenous population. As for understanding Argentina, I can only describe it as The Country that Should Have Been Great. Seriously, they have the resources, manpower, and skill to be a powerhouse, yet they keep getting hosed over again and again by their leadership. Sick_Boy fucked around with this message at 02:24 on Mar 13, 2015 |
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Mar 13, 2015 02:21
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joepinetree posted:a good post Yeah, that's basically it, PT may be bad but the opposition is so loving worse. My mom is an university teacher, one of her students who just graduated is the daughter of a housemaid and an informal construction worker. PT is responsible for a massive increase in free grants for university students, she would probably never even attend university if it wasn't for those governmental programs. This graphic illustrates a crucial point of PT's impact  D and E income brackets declined, C income bracket soared. The rise of the "new middle class" is a major rhetoric point for PT Also, have some human development maps from the united nations development agency 1991  2000 (PT was elected in 2002)  2010   colors corresponding HDI numbers in brackets
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Mar 13, 2015 04:10
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rockopete posted:Ho-ly poo poo. Going to have some fascinating conversations next time I see my Brazilian in-laws. They're from Recife originally, I don't know if that matters or where that fits on the political map or if it can even be broken down that simply. It can be very easily broken down by class. In national elections PT will have a lead of 30 or 40% among those who make less than 5 times the monthly minimum wage (the minimum wage being around US$250 right now), and will trail by some 40 or 50% among those who make 30 times of more the monthly minimum wage. So if they are upper middle class and above, they likely hate PT (and rich people in Brazil don't have a clue what middle class is - you will see people with 2 live in maids, a beach house, and income in the top 5% for Brazil call themselves middle class). Now, to be fair to the upper classes, their lives were probably better in the mid 1990s under PSDB. In the mid 1990s, the US dollar was worth at one point just 0.82 reais. To get this value, the Brazilian central bank had interest rates of up to 45% a year. This led to massive unemployment, but if you were well off, it was great: you could invest in a CD, make over 2% a month almost risk free, travel internationally all the time really cheap, and with a minimum wage of US$80 and with maids exempt from most labor laws, you could have a couple of live in maids. Now, none of that is possible. Which is good from a big picture perspective, but it is undeniable that the well off lead a much less luxurious life now. The top 10% still saw their income increase in absolute terms, but now they hold around 44% of the total national income, as opposed to 48% as it was in the 90s. But on top of that, there is also the fact that the upper classes in Brazil really do generally hate the poor. See the reaction that extending labor rights to maids had. But to keep this based on data, let me post something from the Pew World Values survey. Keep in mind that while PT's policies have reduced inequality in Brazil, all that has meant is that Brazil went from being the most unequal country on earth to being just the 13th or 14th most unequal country on earth. That is, Brazil is still horribly unequal. So the WVS asked on a scale from 1 to 10 if the country should reduce inequality (with 1 indicating that the person thought there was a drastic need to reduce inequality) or if the country should have more inequality (with 10 being that the person thought there should be substantially more inequality to provide incentives to people). Here's the proportion of university graduates (a good proxy for social class) who said "10."  So in a country that is close to the top 10 most unequal places on earth, over 1 in 5 college graduates said that we should have substantially more income inequality. Note that this is only the share who picked the most extreme value. Overall nearly half of all college graduates in Brazil said we should have more income inequality to some degree as a way of providing incentives for people to work. Of course, the question isn't perfect, but you can see how it compares to other neighboring countries and the US. No one comes close. Another question asked if it was the job of a democratic government to tax the rich and subsidize the poor. Here's the proportion of college graduates who said it is not at all essential for a democracy to subsidize the poor and tax the rich:  So it is no wonder that PT are accused of being commies for instituting a cash transfer program where families get less than us$50 a month. quote:How does Aecio hold that much support/fear? Is he just really charismatic, does he have dirt on everyone, or something else? Sephyr did a good job explaining part of it. The other part is that he has played both sides of the political divide in the past, so everyone is afraid of going after him. Back in 2002 and 2006 when Lula was running for president, Aecio had his operatives run the "Lulecio" campaign: vote for Lula for president and Aecio for governor. Aecio was essentially torpedoing the campaigns of the Sao Paulo PSDB candidates so that he could gain influence. Prior to officially becoming the 2014 candidate, there was a lot of talk of him leaving PSDB if Sao Paulo's candidates did not yield to him. The previous major Brazilian scandal, the mensalao, was essentially created by Aecio and his allies, and then adopted by Lula to win over parts of congress. PT avoided attacking him at all costs last year, and only at the end did they go for it. quote:MINIMUM WAGE DESTROYS JOBS, wish I hadn't heard that one before. And US conservatives talk about Latin America as if it was some sort of socialist monolith, hahahaha. It is always great to hear Brazilian right wingers talk about Reagan or Thatcher. Because I then ask them if they would like to have the same tax structure as those two left their countries with. US taxes, even back under Reagan, are far, far more progressive than Brazilian taxes. If anyone tried to make Brazilian taxes more like US taxes, they'd be tarred and feathered as a communist. quote:Where do the 2013 protests fit in to this? Did they get suppressed/dismissed like Occupy in the US, or did they have a lasting effect of any kind? The 2013 protests had no clear focus, and were just as likely to be anti-PSDB as they were anti-PT. In Minas Gerais, for example, a substantial part of the protesters were anti-Aecio (with clever Aecio Never signs), especially teachers protesting that the PSDB government in Minas paid them less than the federally mandated minimum for public school teachers.
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Mar 13, 2015 06:55
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Indeed, it cannot be overstated how much class divisions (and race divisions) play a part in or political landscape. The middle class -hates- the PT due to programs like the Bolsa Famimila, a basic income initiative that offers some aid to poor families provided they keep their kids in school and such. It is derided as bribing the underclass for votes or creating a dependent lazy population, not unlike the whole 'welfare queen' myth in the US. The facts that it is an expansion of a earlier program started by the PSDB program is immaterial to them, as if the fact that this money returns to the economy with amazing speed via increased consumption of food items, appliances and such. It basically upgrades a whole segment of the population from subsistence mode to actual consumers, and had plenty of people leaving its rosters because of gains in income. I feel that animosity particularly close. My father works in packaging and graphic machinery, mostly with food packaging and labeling. in the mid-200s, his business grew almost exponentially due to so many manufacturers needing more machinery and instllations to service the 'C' class, or new lower middle class, that suddenly had money to consume that kind of product: cookies, yogurts, pasta and other such 'luxuries'. Rather than being happy at such a big new field of potential income, he was mortified at such people 'living the good life' on their 'inflated wages'. My brother is an airline pilot. Ten years ago, going to a brazilian airport was pretty much a guarantee of seeing only rich people (or rather, wholesome "middle class" people like you and me!). With the jump in lower middle class income, suddenly tons of people could affordto pay for a trip somewhere in fixed installments, leading to a boom in people who had barely even seen an airplane buying trips to touristy places, even to (gasp!) Florida, the traditional refuge of "middle class" brazilian tourists. Again, there was no joy for a new market opening or a whole field getting a boost. Just the outrage of their pretty airports clogged with "ugly, brown people speaking in weird accents", and bumping into hairdressers and elevator repaimen while shopping in Miami City. He basically lost all pride in his profession, despite making far more money now there is much more demand for pilots (They promoted him from co-pilot in record time to help meet the demand for active flight personnel). His job was supposed to be transporting his 'equals' to important business or fancy trips, not ferrying hordes of lessers to frolic overseas! Politically, that whole divide is the most important dog whistle in the country. Much like the GOP and things like race/class, almost no politician dares to voice such prejudices openly, but resort to code words instead, as well as defining their support base as 'real' working brazilians in Palinesque ways. Personally, I was glad when PT came to power in 2002 (I didn't vote for them because I always cast a null ballot as a petty protest over being mandated to vote), but my elation faded really fast when they promptly expelled the left wing of their party as a way of mollyfying the political structure into accepting them. I felt it was both useless, as the establishment would -never- welcome them, no matter how moderate they became, because no one welcomes a rival or relinquishes a political cudgel to bash them with, and because once you boot out the people who care, you give the operators and corrupt dealers a lot more room to steer things. Even when the economy started picking up and other good reslts showed, I stayed worried because, in my view, bringing that development to sectors of the population without also spreading a political culture of how and why it was happening would lead to a future conservative swing like in the US, where people who benefited hugely from the New Deal suddenly went all-in reactionary when the time came to pay for a new segment of the population to get a hand up in the 60s. Sephyr fucked around with this message at 13:54 on Mar 13, 2015 |
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Mar 13, 2015 13:49
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Sick_Boy posted:I think the big distinction to make is that Porteños (people from Buenos Aires) are white as gently caress, but Argentina is quite large and there are a lot of mestizo communities- still well below the rest of Latin America's average ratio of non-white people, though. And there is a very real cultural difference between Porteños and the rest of Argentinians. Most negative stereotypes that other Latin Americans have regarding Argentinians are actually about Porteños. 
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Mar 13, 2015 16:33
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I will never not be angry that San Martin is only on the $5 bill. He should be on the $100 one 
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Mar 13, 2015 17:04
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:the hundred dollar bill of my heart I think those may be going out of print? There's a series of $100 with Evita on them, and if I remember correctly they are going to replace them. When I went to the numismatic museum (I know, I know) in Buenos Aires, they told the story of all the currencies we had had. One in particular was pretty funny: they started doing the bills with the faces of presidents on them, in chronological order. But then, good ole Inflation started, and they had to keep printing bigger bills with newer presidents. Until they actually ran out of presidents/caught up with the present.
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Mar 13, 2015 17:26
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Markovnikov posted:I think those may be going out of print? There's a series of $100 with Evita on them, and if I remember correctly they are going to replace them. Markovnikov posted:When I went to the numismatic museum (I know, I know) in Buenos Aires, they told the story of all the currencies we had had. One in particular was pretty funny: they started doing the bills with the faces of presidents on them, in chronological order. But then, good ole Inflation started, and they had to keep printing bigger bills with newer presidents. Until they actually ran out of presidents/caught up with the present.
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Mar 13, 2015 17:44
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It should by Yrigoyen and Perón on every bill.
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Mar 13, 2015 17:49
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:Yes they're to be replaced by the Evita ones. The same with Sarmiento being replaced by the Malvinas one. The entire point of them being issued is that they can re-issue the entire serial number set, and therefore they can keep printing bills and increasing circulation in order to meet inflation, without having to print higher than 100 peso nomination. Hrm, haven't seen the Malvinas' bills at all. Maybe because nowadays you don't much get to handle lower denomination Bills. Sarmiento was also kind of a dick too so good for him being shoved aside? I'm pretty sure it wasn't the australes, but some previous currency, we've had a bunch. I do remember seeing a series of old gardening magazines my mother has, that were priced in australes, and as the numbers went by you could see the price going up up up.
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Mar 13, 2015 18:00
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:the hundred dollar bill of my heart Uno por uno was one hell of a mess, wasn't it? I'm not that well-versed on the details, was it artificially forced or something that was, at least for a time, a viable thing?
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Mar 13, 2015 18:05
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Sick_Boy posted:Uno por uno was one hell of a mess, wasn't it? I'm not that well-versed on the details, was it artificially forced or something that was, at least for a time, a viable thing? It was viable in that it brought in a bunch of foreign money, but it also made Argentine industry totally nonviable.
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Mar 13, 2015 18:06
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Badger of Basra posted:It was viable in that it brought in a bunch of foreign money, but it also made Argentine industry totally nonviable.
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Mar 13, 2015 18:23
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Sick_Boy posted:I swear to god, few things are as baffling to me as the history of Argentinian politics and economy. I mean, they SHOULD be a big power in terms of resources, they SHOULD be so much more, and yet... for some reason I cannot truly comprehend, they keep loving themselves over, and I'm down to blaming the political culture, which is a very watery and weak argument- but it's all I have. God gave every Argentine three virtues, from which he could choose any two: intelligence, honesty, and peronism Sick_Boy posted:Uno por uno was one hell of a mess, wasn't it? I'm not that well-versed on the details, was it artificially forced or something that was, at least for a time, a viable thing? Markovnikov posted:Hrm, haven't seen the Malvinas' bills at all. Maybe because nowadays you don't much get to handle lower denomination Bills. Sarmiento was also kind of a dick too so good for him being shoved aside? It's also definitely Australes since that was the only currency to display so many heads of state on the bills. All the other ones are much more conservative and stick to Belgrano, San Martin, and one or two other ones, to minimize any potential political fallout. The Austral is also the one to have suffered the most inflationary period. Highest denomination on the switch to Australes from Peso Argentino Ley in 1985:  Five years later: 
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Mar 13, 2015 19:10
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Interesting perspectives. My wife is from Argentina, and fled with her parents after her father (a journalist) got out of jail. She has family members who hid dissidents Anne Frank-style from El Proceso. One odd consequence of this is that despite being a member of the far, hard left for her entire life she loves Margaret Thatcher and was genuinely stricken at her death.
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Mar 13, 2015 19:38
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I remember those little 1cent of Austral with the running ñandu in the back. This is the only bill that matters 
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Mar 13, 2015 19:41
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hecko posted:I remember those little 1cent of Austral with the running ñandu in the back. Holy poo poo.
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Mar 13, 2015 19:45
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hecko posted:I remember those little 1cent of Austral with the running ñandu in the back. That face still triggers the urge to punch, and I'm not even Argentinian.
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Mar 13, 2015 20:36
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:God gave every Argentine three virtues, from which he could choose any two: intelligence, honesty, and peronism Holy molly, I had never heard that one, golden. Ghost of Mussolini posted:"Uno por uno" was Cavallo trying to have it both ways. If you want parity with the dollar, then you need to run an extremely tight fiscal regime, which Argentina obviously did not do. The other possibility is to just go all out and dollarize the economy completely. Ecuador has done this fairly well, although you essentially cede monetary policy unilaterally. The thing to remember about the uno a uno was that the middle class loving loved it. They were finally able to buy all the fancy poo poo they wanted, and take their trips to Europe and Miami like the good nouveau riche they aspired to be. The counterbalance to that was the lower classes suffering, due to the loss of competitiveness of the local industry and agriculture that employed them. I was a child of the 90's, so I still behave somewhat spoiled when nowadays with our hosed exchange rate I can't get all the shiny toys I would like to (as mentioned before in the thread, importing things is also a nightmare due to stricter customs controls too). Ghost of Mussolini posted:It's also definitely Australes since that was the only currency to display so many heads of state on the bills. All the other ones are much more conservative and stick to Belgrano, San Martin, and one or two other ones, to minimize any potential political fallout. The Austral is also the one to have suffered the most inflationary period. Oh yeah seeing those bills you are right, it was probably the Australes. DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:Interesting perspectives. My wife is from Argentina, and fled with her parents after her father (a journalist) got out of jail. She has family members who hid dissidents Anne Frank-style from El Proceso. One odd consequence of this is that despite being a member of the far, hard left for her entire life she loves Margaret Thatcher and was genuinely stricken at her death. Margaret Thactcher was a bad person, and the Malvinas war was a bad war (if the concept of a good war even exists). You don't have to root for one or the other.
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Mar 13, 2015 20:42
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:God gave every Argentine three virtues, from which he could choose any two: intelligence, honesty, and peronism  Markovnikov posted:The thing to remember about the uno a uno was that the middle class loving loved it. They were finally able to buy all the fancy poo poo they wanted, and take their trips to Europe and Miami like the good nouveau riche they aspired to be. The counterbalance to that was the lower classes suffering, due to the loss of competitiveness of the local industry and agriculture that employed them. I was a child of the 90's, so I still behave somewhat spoiled when nowadays with our hosed exchange rate I can't get all the shiny toys I would like to (as mentioned before in the thread, importing things is also a nightmare due to stricter customs controls too). I've been called a burgeoise patrician a couple times for saying I'd love to import some designer boardgames. It never stops being funny. Markovnikov posted:Oh yeah seeing those bills you are right, it was probably the Australes. Wasn't there a 1 million one too? Markovnikov posted:Margaret Thactcher was a bad person, and the Malvinas war was a bad war (if the concept of a good war even exists). You don't have to root for one or the other. Pretty much. I still have a knee jerk reaction to people trying to make it seem like the Argentinians were the good guys, if only because our own countrymen died there. I mean, I understand if you are a vet or a vet's relative, but holy poo poo never defend an invasion what's wrong with you  It's like when that one guy in my class said we should support ISIS because they are allies against imperialistic America.
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Mar 13, 2015 23:00
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Mar 15, 2015 19:00
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Brazilian politics are a game where two parties fight for four years and in the end, PMDB wins. Stupid country.
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Mar 15, 2015 20:02
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Care to explain this for individuals who prefer to study south american business history over south american cultural history?
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Mar 15, 2015 20:15
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 colonized mentality at it's best (this pic is from brasilia) My Imaginary GF posted:Care to explain this for individuals who prefer to study south american business history over south american cultural history? More like political history, first pic is from the reactionary Families' march for God and Freedom, which was used to PR advantage by the military in the 1964 coup, second pic is right now. e;f;b bagual fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Mar 15, 2015 |
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Mar 15, 2015 20:17
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My Imaginary GF posted:Care to explain this for individuals who prefer to study south american business history over south american cultural history? "Brazil will not be the new Cuba". First pic is from 1964, when a military coup happened to "rid us from communism". Second pic is from today.
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Mar 15, 2015 20:19
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Reminds me of a macro I saw on FB the other day. "Daddy, what is 'History'? " "I don't know son, I'm a right winger/conservative" (de derecha, in the original)
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Mar 15, 2015 20:36
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 Bonus points: find a black person in these pictures. And as a reminder to anyone who thinks Brazil is about to become the next Cuba or Venezuela:  This is the tax burden, by income. joepinetree fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Mar 15, 2015 |
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Mar 15, 2015 21:57
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What are the chances of a coup? Being that my knowledge of Brazil is pretty sparse I hope to God that this doesn't send Latin America back into the dark ages,
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Mar 15, 2015 23:49
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Crowsbeak posted:What are the chances of a coup? Being that my knowledge of Brazil is pretty sparse I hope to God that this doesn't send Latin America back into the dark ages, joe said it better a while ago, but I'd say very slim. The current political conjecture all but guarantees that the opposition wins when the next elections come about, so they're not gonna press PT too hard going for a "soft" coup - they've been pretty chill about the whole "impeachment" topic. Military won't do poo poo. What's gonna happen is some nice ol' PR spin on the Petrobrás issues, some market fearmongering to keep the dollar and inflation high for a while and also when 2018 comes around, plus ensuring PMDB will switch sides by then (they will, IF they don't run themselves). Unless things get a lot worse, there ain't much to fear in terms of an actual coup.
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Mar 15, 2015 23:59
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The only saving grace of Latin American militaries is that they're thankfully even more inept than the rest of the political establishment.
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Mar 16, 2015 00:14
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:The only saving grace of Latin American militaries is that they're thankfully even more inept than the rest of the political establishment. I thought latin american militaries were the political establishment?
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Mar 16, 2015 00:17
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Crowsbeak posted:What are the chances of a coup? Being that my knowledge of Brazil is pretty sparse I hope to God that this doesn't send Latin America back into the dark ages, Dias covered it well, but the chances of an actual military coup are nil. Back in 1964 Joao Goulart (the deposed president) was proposing some real leftwing reforms, like land reform and nationalizations. Nowadays they wouldn't engage in that sort of stuff just to eliminate a small cash transfer program, or privatize the little that is left. A far more likely result would be an impeachment, that would akin to a soft coup. Ironically, the only way I see this happening is if PT alienated PMDB further by going all in in the investigation of the Petrobras scandal. Even then, most actual leaders on the right don't want an impeachment. Not because of any commitment to democratic values or anything like that. But Lula is still around, and is still by far the most popular politician in Brazil. So best case scenario for the opposition is for Dilma to have an unpopular government for 4 years, having to deal with a hostile congress while having to take unpopular measures to balance the budget. That way, PSDB can easily win in 2018. The alternative, of an impeachment where PMDB takes over and governs with the help of PSDB, will not only take away a lot of the appeal of PSDB, but likely leads to a Lula candidacy unencumbered by an unpopular incumbent from the same party.
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Mar 16, 2015 00:39
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My Imaginary GF posted:I thought latin american militaries were the political establishment? False, and don't generalize things to a huge and diverse region.
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Mar 16, 2015 00:56
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Are the people participating in the protests people who were already middle/upper class before 2002, or does it include the new middle class also?
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Mar 16, 2015 01:41
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