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Just a little bit of ANR bounce....please!!
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Mar 16, 2015 20:22
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| # ? May 21, 2024 11:45 |
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What I'm trying to say is that IIRC at Intrade (I never actually put money into it) for the yes/no questions the "yes" and "no" options were two different "securities," so back then anyone who'd bought a share had a short seller on the other side. So you could, say, short Romney and buy Obama for free money during that highly-covered few days where the Romney "yes" price was out of whack with everything else. At Predictit buying a "yes" share for X matches you with someone buying a "no" share for 1-X so there are fewer markets with equivalent bets floating around. I'm not sure what you mean by shorting linked markets; is it basically what I was describing above?
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Mar 16, 2015 20:25
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5% withdrawal on top of 10% profit is pretty brutal.
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Mar 16, 2015 20:33
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I'm looking to dip my toes into individual stocks just for giggles. How do you like AT&T right now? It's trading near the 52 week low and has dividends at 5.4% seems like a nice hold option.
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Mar 17, 2015 15:26
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Broccoli Cat posted:ANR up 'round 1.40, gents... e: to be fair he did say he was on a 5 year plan for his ANR position, being down 43% since this post is probably not a big deal. sleepy gary fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Mar 17, 2015 |
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Mar 17, 2015 15:35
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DNova posted:e: to be fair he did say he was on a 5 year plan for his ANR position, being down 43% since this post is probably not a big deal. I am an investing newbie who has been using this thread + Robinhood + $100 bi-weekly deposits to teach myself the stock market. I got in ANR at $0.93 and sold at $1.14, so thanks Broccoli Cat!
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Mar 17, 2015 15:48
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I'm hoping he took his profits as well.
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Mar 17, 2015 15:49
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Well, posters ITT generally don't turn into crickets when they're winning, so... On the other hand, coal... is the future!
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Mar 17, 2015 15:58
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I think it will remain profitable for mining as an export to the far east, but I don't know anything about ANR or any other coal companies so I haven't made any bets. Also I guess ANR just had a fatality at one of their mines, which I'm guessing is part of the reason for today's slump.
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Mar 17, 2015 16:03
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Hope some of you nerds were holding Nintendo I received 10 shares as a gift when I graduated high school, rollin' in it right now 
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Mar 17, 2015 16:12
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I had been waiting for a pullback to buy NTDOY 
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Mar 17, 2015 16:21
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So apparently it's on news they're going into phone games. I should have seen this coming, they said a while ago they were looking into monetizing their IP more and already had a success selling like a squintillion of those $10 plastic figurines.
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Mar 17, 2015 16:55
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Shear Modulus posted:So apparently it's on news they're going into phone games. I should have seen this coming, they said a while ago they were looking into monetizing their IP more and already had a success selling like a squintillion of those $10 plastic figurines. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbjqpVJJsL0
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Mar 17, 2015 17:10
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quote:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbjqpVJJsL0 Counterpoint: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGLeMdlYN60&t=423
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Mar 17, 2015 17:44
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Is Arcam AB going to keep tanking? I remember saying to myself I'd jump in if it hit 18, but now it's hovering around 17 and I'm worried how far it's going to sink.
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Mar 17, 2015 18:05
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Armond Poopson posted:Is Arcam AB going to keep tanking? I remember saying to myself I'd jump in if it hit 18, but now it's hovering around 17 and I'm worried how far it's going to sink. Bull: They just inked a deal with GKN Aerospace to use their EBM printing in component manufacturing. Bear: The CEO just liquidated over half his stock and plans to sell off his remaining 66k shares I have a trailing stop that'll trigger at 16.12. If he dumps the remainder all at once again and tanks the price further I'll probably get stopped out.
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Mar 17, 2015 18:18
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tesilential posted:I'm looking to dip my toes into individual stocks just for giggles. How do you like AT&T right now? It's trading near the 52 week low and has dividends at 5.4% seems like a nice hold option. I LOVE AT&T. It's true that the stock is at a low but it's not very volatile, so really it's only like a dollar or two below the usual level. They seem to be offering new services and expanding at a healthy rate. (Note: I didn't do any detailed research.) It's my boring stock and I get a nice dividend from it too. I recommend putting a somewhat large chunk of your account into it and holding it long term if you look into AT&T and like what you see.
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Mar 17, 2015 18:53
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All the coal longs should read this and re-evaluate the long thesis; especially if it was based on outdated information. Most of this information seems to be priced into the market but out of all the coal plays mentioned sub $5 which will be the lucky one that averts bankruptcy? http://action.sierraclub.org/site/DocServer/Coal_Tracker_report_final_3-9-15.pdf?docID=17381 "In East Asia, roughly one project was shelved or cancelled for every project completed. In other regions the ratio of projects halted to projects completed was higher. In Eurasia, Africa, the Middle East, and Australia, 41,504 MW of capacity was halted while only 1,883 MW of capacity was completed. In India the rate of failure tripled after 2012. From 2010–2012 two projects were halted for every project completed. From 2012–2014 period more than six projects were halted for every project completed."
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Mar 17, 2015 19:10
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Anyone else long on Nintendo (NTDOY) like me get really excited yesterday? I was averaged in at like 17.50 so obviously I had been down for quite some time. I also like AT&T (T) for the dividend.
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Mar 18, 2015 14:34
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Anyone care for Robinhood invites anymore? I have a few.
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Mar 18, 2015 14:51
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MrBigglesworth posted:Anyone care for Robinhood invites anymore? I have a few.
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Mar 18, 2015 18:29
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I dunno, I just got an email after my last trade execution saying that they had 3 more invites for me to give out.
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Mar 18, 2015 18:50
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Is anyone else going to miss the periodic Fed insanity we've been having these last few years? Nothing like charts that look like this:
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Mar 18, 2015 19:11
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Thanks to the goon that recommended vslr 25% gain since the 2 or 3 weeks I have been holding it. Time to set the trailing stop
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Mar 19, 2015 16:14
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Yeah, I sold my VSLR. I think at their respective prices, I'd own SCTY or neither. You can see where my interest arose in VSLR: For no reason at all VIvint plummeted compared to SolarCity despite the fact that they're pretty much the same exact company. It's now back to something that makes sense, and I see better opportunities than VSLR. The main story in rooftop solar leasing/PPA is that you have two companies growing at a phenomenal pace...VSLR's growth rates are higher, in fact eye-popping high, but it is from a smaller base. Where SolarCity will probably have an advantage starting a year from now is that they'll be manufacturing their own panels en masse (I say probably because it's a new business for them, so there could be unforeseen problems or costs...it'd be kinda pointless if their own panels end up being more expensive than foreign-sourced panels).
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Mar 20, 2015 13:51
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Out of curiosity, did you find that with a cointegration test?
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Mar 20, 2015 14:47
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Im still upside down on SCTY at $86/share. Bought the day before they took a poo poo.
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Mar 20, 2015 14:54
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AWWNAW posted:Out of curiosity, did you find that with a cointegration test? No can't say that I did....just follow solars fairly closely.
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Mar 20, 2015 14:58
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I've taken some fairly good-sized positions in a couple of oil servicing companies over the past couple of weeks....HOS and TDW. Got 2000 HOS @ average price of 18.77 and 3000 TDW @ average price of 21.83. I'm above water on HOS and under water on TDW right now. The story in the oil sector is obviously the plummet in oil prices. And you see with the weekly onshore rig count from Baker Hughes that rigs in the US are just plummeting. A lot of the fringe players as I understand it have a great chance of going belly up. The cost of extracting oil is in some places higher than what you can sell said oil for. There's a supply/demand imbalance right now which could last for some time, especially with oil being stored all over the place. Definitely no guarantee that oil prices increase anytime soon. And I don't pretend to have any earthly clue where oil prices are going. The offshore story is different than onshore. The cost basis of each new barrel of oil is very low (after a large amount of CapEx to establish a rig in the first place). They're long-term projects. As such, the offshore industry is more stable. Still sensitive to oil prices, but it is less dramatic. The challenge facing offshore at this moment is that you have to be very careful in deciding whether to deploy new rigs. Transocean/RIG just plummeted yesterday based on them scrapping a few rigs and taking a huge write-down. What Hornbeck (HOS) and Tidewater (TDW) do is service the offshore platforms with a fleet of ships called OSVs (and with Tidewater, they also have tugboats). Both companies have large amounts of assets in the form of these ships (and plenty of accrued debt...building the ships wasn't free). Even with the debt, Tidewater is trading at less than 40% of book value right now, by far the lowest its ever been. Hornbeck is trading at about 50% of book. Both companies assessed their fleets at year-end for write-downs and indicated that they did not need to take write-downs nor are they planning to. I've listened to conference calls and read the 10-Qs and done my due diligence, and I can't find any red flags or reasons why I would think management isn't open and honest. Quite the opposite, both seem very proactive and realistic about oil. Tidewater recently wrote down all of their goodwill from their balance sheet (which is skewing their earnings). Both companies have cold-stacked less profitable ships (to reduce maintenance costs) over the past few months. Salary cuts could be coming. Of note, Hornbeck recently sold ships that are trading in the stock market at 50% of their value for much greater than 100% of their value (although a very unique customer that probably overpaid...the US Navy). Because offshore is more stable, there is predictable demand for OSVs. And if we look at worst case scenarios of how these companies performed in previous low oil environments, Hornbeck barely lost any money with the offshore FREEZE in the gulf after the BP spill, and Tidewater has been profitable for years (check out links below for HOS, and check out the investor presentation for TDW). Whereas the stock prices right now basically assume that they're going to be losing money for the foreseeable future. It's not a lock that they'll be profitable, though, even with fairly stable OSV demand....because OSV supply could eclipse that demand this year, and it could cause prices to crater. Both Hornbeck and Tidewater have newbuild programs (hundreds of millions in new ships being built), which could exacerbate the problem. The biggest danger in owning these stocks is that the business becomes unprofitable and that the assets decrease markedly in value. I've tried to give the general outline...there's a couple of worthwhile reads about Hornbeck at these two links, which flesh out the businesses more: http://www.freenpv.com/?p=457 (from 2 months ago) http://traviswiedower.com/2015/02/26/hornbeck-offshore-services-hos/ & http://traviswiedower.com/2015/02/27/hornbeck-book-value-update/ (from last month) While Hornbeck is almost entirely based in the Gulf of Mexico, Tidewater is all over the world. Both companies have investor presentations on their investor relations sites that I suggest you check out. There's three things I like about this trade: 1. I don't think the stocks can realistically go much lower for any extended period of time (knock on wood). The assets they hold are simply too valuable, and the demand is not going to disappear any time soon. 2. If oil prices go up this summer, these stocks could easily double. 3. If oil prices stay stable, these companies could easily still be profitable. Conversely, if we're to look at the short thesis of these stocks, I don't see how it makes any sense. You have very limited upside because they are so asset-flush, and you have ludicrous amounts of downside. I think these companies are being shorted/sold off along with the industry, while people don't realize that their earnings are going to less subject to drastic swings. Suffice to say, I think the gigantic drops in both stocks is wrong. As far as where they are trading right now, I was buying HOS below 19, and it's far above 19 right now, so I've stopped buying that. I'm purely buying TDW right now. Unfortunately neither of these stocks has long-term options (furthest expiry for HOS is September, TDW October) or else I'd probably own a good deal of those. Would be interested in any thoughts! edit: should also add, there's been insider buying in both companies over the past few months, and both companies have authorization for share buybacks, which seem all but certain at these valuations. Arkane fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Mar 20, 2015 |
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Mar 20, 2015 16:50
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Arkane posted:Would be interested in any thoughts! Sounds reasonable to me. In at 20.80 and plan on doubling down if it drops below 19.
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Mar 20, 2015 17:56
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The 5-week chart for TDW is just pure pain. 52-week low after 52-week low, almost every single day. Blue slots in the bottom right are where I bought.
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Mar 20, 2015 18:16
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Arkane, I don't know if you read about the differences in the oil services for rigs and the entry requirement for the GoM. I suggest you read up on it, really interesting. Pertaining Hornbeck, majority of their business is in the Gulf (strict requirements to operate in the GoM). They've been upgrading their fleet in recent years which is better than what their competitors are doing. Due to them upgrading their fleet their maintenance costs go down. Their fleet is set for rigs that are very far from the shore (competitive advantage) . I think I read somewhere they have 40% of the rig business in the GoM (they are not the major players in the region, I forgot who it was). I agree with you that it might be a short term gain, however, I am unsure about long term. The oil rig contracts are not set to expire for a while, however, who's to say the companies who lease the rigs won't go out of business (I haven't checked who they are yet). Short-term yes, long-term hell no. Crude oil is being stored everywhere and prices will get way lower as soon as storage is full. Companies didn't heed OPEC (Saudis) warning that they weren't going to lower their production. NOTE - They are trying to do more business outside of the GoM. Mexico just privatized future oil productions off its coast and oil sites are already being targeted. More to come on that. P.S. - Arkane, what kind of research (tools, etc...) do you complete for these investments? I'm just curious.
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Mar 20, 2015 18:27
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hike posted:Arkane, Yeah, Jones Act somewhat insulates Hornbeck in the Gulf. But Hornbeck is also doing more spot work, and less contracted work compared to Tidewater so there are trade-offs. And the Gulf is set to have an influx of OSVs this year, by Hornbeck's own estimates. Both companies definitely have their pluses and minuses. Tidewater bought the previous incarnation of Hornbeck in 1996. As far as projecting long-term oil prices based on what oil is doing right this second, I think that is foolish. There's going to be (1) lag-time between rig shutdowns and oil output and (2) increases in oil demand in the summer months. It's by no means any sort of certainty that oil is going to stay depressed, just as I don't think the inverse of oil going higher has any sort of certainty involved in it. I'm simply looking at the range of outcomes for oil. In the oil increases range of outcomes, these companies are ludicrously attractive. In the oil stays stagnant range of outcomes, the companies are still attractive based on assets. These stocks could continue to spiral downward in a low oil world, that is certainly true and a risk that one should be fully aware of. But I don't think that is likely, because their assets are still valuable and needed in the offshore space. quote:P.S. - Arkane, what kind of research (tools, etc...) do you complete for these investments? I'm just curious. As far as this company, I was attracted to HOS by the write-ups of the guy from freenpv, and started tracking it. It was mid-20s at that point. Below 20, I started to really pay attention to it, and traded it a little. After they sold their ships to the US Navy for above book value, and the stock plummeted over the next few days, that is when I really invested in it, because that price movement is in some alternate version of reality that makes no sense. I added CKH, TDW, and RIG to a watch list to look at how companies in their space were doing and the TDW plummet attracted me to that company, and I started doing research over the past week or so. Really there's 3 things that I pay attention to...EV/EBITDA, tangible book value, and management. Earnings, downside protection, and what the company is focused on/how they are addressing challenges. I also try to look at the future through a range of outcomes and try to come to a vague conclusion on how much the bet is tilted in my favor. That's about it. I'm just finishing up with a really interesting (although overpriced) book called Deep Value by Tobias Carlisle that basically says EV/EBITDA trumps everything in stock performance, so I've tried to become more focused on that. Arkane fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Mar 20, 2015 |
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Mar 20, 2015 18:55
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Here is a spreadsheet tracking my trades on robinhood. It's nothing fancy but it really drives home what commissions can do to a smaller account that you are trying to trade. I normally don't share $ amounts, but its necessary here. I put $22k into robinhood and my account is currently at $24k. My gains increased roughly 10% due to no commissions(I assumed $5 for buy and $5 for sell), and I am not a particularly aggressive trader. That will be enormous over 10-20 years of trading and investing. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jCyQkBKsSAyjGQs9ixZ41xt9vPXVlYKvIxx23w2HSl0/pubhtml
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Mar 20, 2015 19:20
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$5 commission is for people who make 1 trade a month.
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Mar 20, 2015 19:25
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DNova posted:$5 commission is for people who make 1 trade a month. What do you pay?
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Mar 20, 2015 19:28
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I pay more because I like the transaction history and paperwork to be in order and relatively on time for taxes. I like my orders to be submitted and completed expeditiously without any occasional (or frequent) weirdness. And etrade has a really low chance of going belly up and taking god knows how long for the FDIC to sort things out and make everyone whole. God forbid the securities you think you own aren't actually there a la MF Global. And yah I try not to trade as much as I used to. And I move relatively large amounts. So paying .1% or less every 6 months on a trade isn't really gonna effect much.
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Mar 20, 2015 19:49
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$1 up to 200 shares, plus $0.005 per share above that. The savings for options is even more ridiculous. This is a good time to ask the other IB users here: is there any reason I shouldn't switch to Tiered pricing? I don't make market orders so it seems like it might be a lot cheaper. Baddog posted:I pay more because I like the transaction history and paperwork to be in order and relatively on time for taxes. I like my orders to be submitted and completed expeditiously without any occasional (or frequent) weirdness. And etrade has a really low chance of going belly up and taking god knows how long for the FDIC to sort things out and make everyone whole. God forbid the securities you think you own aren't actually there a la MF Global. Exactly. If I was trading 2 times per year I wouldn't care about commissions either. sleepy gary fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Mar 20, 2015 |
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Mar 20, 2015 19:50
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Baddog posted:I pay more because I like the transaction history and paperwork to be in order and relatively on time for taxes. I like my orders to be submitted and completed expeditiously without any occasional (or frequent) weirdness. And etrade has a really low chance of going belly up and taking god knows how long for the FDIC to sort things out and make everyone whole. God forbid the securities you think you own aren't actually there a la MF Global. Your point is good, but Robinhood has some serious VC money behind it (Andressen Horowitz, Google Ventures etc). They're not as much of a fly-by-night underdog as their marketing makes them out to be.
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Mar 20, 2015 20:07
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| # ? May 21, 2024 11:45 |
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bahahahaha AAPL
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Mar 20, 2015 21:06
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