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A MIRACLE posted:My dad likes Jeb Bush but can't give any reasons why other than "he's actually very reasonable" He sure is! Just ask Michael Schivao!
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Mar 23, 2015 16:48
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There has been a theory amongst the conservative crowd that McCain and Romney lost not because people rejected their ideas, or because of electoral fundamentals, or because they ran an inferior campaign, or even because Obama cheated, but because there is a great "silent majority" of Freep level super conservatives out there that stayed home rather than compromise themselves and vote for "liberals" like Sen. "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" and Gov. "47%". Cruz is, by all appearances, one of the subscribers to that theory, and he thinks he will be the one to awaken and motivate these voters.
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Mar 23, 2015 16:48
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Ted Cruz will be a loving hurricane in the debates but considering the establishment will be throwing everything they have at him to ensure that literally anyone else gets nominated, it would take historic implosions from the big players along with Republican primary voters shifting even further to the right en mass for him to get the nomination. Sounds like a good opportunity for Randmentum!
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Mar 23, 2015 16:50
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Ted Cruz will be a loving hurricane in the debates but considering the establishment will be throwing everything they have at him to ensure that literally anyone else gets nominated, it would take historic implosions from the big players along with Republican primary voters shifting even further to the right en mass for him to get the nomination. They've been out of the Presidency for 8 years, and they think that 2012 was theirs by right. They're angrier and more desperate than they were 2 years ago, and they'll be angrier and more desperate still by Nov. 2016. They might just be desperate enough to nominate Cruz because he's a fighter, and he's not nice. I mean, I'm not going to  or anything, because the thought process behind the Republican id is functionally impenetrable to me, but I can see solid strategic/emotional reasons for a Cruz nomination.Fried Chicken posted:There has been a theory amongst the conservative crowd that McCain and Romney lost not because people rejected their ideas, or because of electoral fundamentals, or because they ran an inferior campaign, or even because Obama cheated, but because there is a great "silent majority" of Freep level super conservatives out there that stayed home rather than compromise themselves and vote for "liberals" like Sen. "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" and Gov. "47%". Cruz is, by all appearances, one of the subscribers to that theory, and he thinks he will be the one to awaken and motivate these voters. Yes. Agreed. I think that's where Cruz's logic for the line about born agains not voting came from.
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Mar 23, 2015 16:50
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A MIRACLE posted:My dad likes Jeb Bush but can't give any reasons why other than "he's actually very reasonable" You remember the rant by Sideshow Bob about republicans? He was basically describing a large swath of people, including both our dads, and Jeb looks just good enough compared to Cruz and the rest that they can feel justified in voting for him.
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Mar 23, 2015 16:51
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Fried Chicken posted:You remember the rant by Sideshow Bob about republicans? He was basically describing a large swath of people, including both our dads, and Jeb looks just good enough compared to Cruz and the rest that they can feel justified in voting for him. He's married to a minority! He must not be racist!
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Mar 23, 2015 16:57
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Here's a transcript.quote:Imagine another little girl living in Africa, in Kenya and Nigeria. That’s a diverse crowd. And yes, his plan for healthcare is "Overturn Obamacare, replace with freedom." (APPLAUSE)
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Mar 23, 2015 16:59
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Series DD Funding posted:Voter ID has never been shown to have a significant effect. Bwah? Every study I've seen has said the exact opposite.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:01
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Parachute posted:Cruz is smart in the sense that he knows he has not only no chance of a nomination, but no chance of becoming President so he just starts his race early hoping to catch big donators as early as possible. I want to see one Koch each support Cruz and Walker, just to see what would happen. 
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Mar 23, 2015 17:02
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the Springfield Republican Party fails every time because they treat their opposition as bleeding-heart granola liberals when in reality the Springfield Democrats are a hard crew whose command of county-level machine politics has allowed them to control the city for over a century are you willing to send your volunteers into Bum Town and Little Stockholm to take on the bosses, Burns? Are you willing to send them to die? Are you willing to dirty your hands by bribing Chief Wiggum or schmoozing with the patrons at Moe's? Are you willing to humiliate your puppet candidates by sending them to make banal small-talk at every restaurant opening and shopping event? dont underestimate Joe Quimby, Burns. Joe Quimby will gently caress you up. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 17:09 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 17:02
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bpower posted:Jesus, imagine if Holyfield went full on Raging Bull and had to be dragged off Romney. Im not saying I want it to happen of course but imagine it! Jesus. I just hope that when he starts losing he doesn't bite off Evander's other ear.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:10
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CaptainCarrot posted:Bwah? Every study I've seen has said the exact opposite. http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/Democracy/VRE/Mycoff%20et%20al.pdf http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/02/us-usa-campaign-voterid-idUSBRE8A10UJ20121102
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Mar 23, 2015 17:12
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FYI: there's a guy that drags a cross around downtown Lynchburg like Jesus at random times. Cruz's only chance now is to raise so much money that Huck, Santorum, and Carson can't possibly catch up. They'll still lose since Walker can easily capture the same voters PLUS the "well I don't go to church but gently caress YOU if you wanna raise my taxes (ps I make like 40k a year)" voters. Also, Common Core is a red hot issue and even if you think it's reasonable, there's so much peer pressure against it in Red America that I think Walker really will beat Bush. Cruz will try for that too, but I really do think there are a lot of GOP primary voters that want people to think they're "red blooded American Christians" but still think Cruz is an attention whore. Walker will be their perfect candidate. Unless something blows up in Iran/Iraq, and then everyone will rush back into the arms of the Bushes blindly, like in 2001-2003. That's honestly Bush's best hope. I think Cheneyism is still potent among all GOP voters except the irrelevant Paultards.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:13
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Three Olives posted:Ted Cruz 2016 is a... upside down burning flag. It's a Pentecostal flame. The official count-down to a American Flag Cross as a campaign logo has now begun.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:14
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 Wow, that was embarrassing. Don't worry, he fixed it: 
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Mar 23, 2015 17:15
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Ted gave a talk at Liberty University today. "No, no Mr. Cruz. This shirt shows how united we are against Shai'tain and his Darkfriends!" CaptainCarrot posted:Bwah? Every study I've seen has said the exact opposite. The consensus based on the results of the 2014 midterms seems to be that individuals are prevented from voting, not general populations. There are only anecdotes regarding whether or not it can sway close elections. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/us/voter-id-laws-midterm-elections.html quote:In North Carolina, early voting was cut by seven days. In Kansas, 22,000 people were stopped from registering to vote because they lacked proof of citizenship. And in Texas, Democrats say the country’s toughest voter ID law contributed to a one-term congressman’s losing a tight race to his Republican rival.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:15
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538 plants a seed of doubt:
SNAKES N CAKES fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 17:18
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MC Nietzche posted:The only reason I think Cruz legit has a shot is because this is not 2012, the GOP does not have a clear 2nd place person to hand the nomination to the way they did with Romney. At best they have an establishment candidate in Jeb. However, even in 2012 Romney did not sweep the board, he won it through painful attrition. What I am afraid of is that Cruz actually manages to knock out a few of the challengers before the primary proper starts, and he actually manages to energize the base. He wins a couple of primaries, people weak on Bush move to join the Cruzmentum, and he wins the long game. After the obvious establishment candidate (Bush), Cruz's biggest hurdle is Walker (and to a lesser extent, Perry). Santorum and Huckabee might energize the religious right but I think they're going to be fractured as a voting bloc between the two and the other Tea Party candidates. Carson sounds good now but I'd be surprised if he doesn't now out before Iowa for being a lightweight. Rubio has immigration hanging around his neck. But Walker has enough history as a rubber stamp for Tea Party legislation and has proven to be so in bed with the Kochs that Cruz is going to have a hard time getting donations with most of the establishment money going to Bush either way. If Cruz can knock out Walker early, however, his path to the nomination suddenly doesn't seem so far-fetched, since he's basically the strongest anti-establishment candidate and Koch money probably won't go to Perry and definitely not Bush.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:18
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To my mind he's a way tougher and smarter contender than either of those guys, and Bush is going to have to battle the same anti-establishment forces that made those rear end-clowns frontrunners against Romney.
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Cognac McCarthy posted:Jrodefeld in the libertarian/AnCap thread shed some light on how libertarians apparently view candidates like Cruz - he recognizes that Cruz will never win, that there will probably never be a hardcore libertarian president, and that a libertarian president couldn't necessarily even change that much without support in Congress, but libertarians are convinced candidates like Cruz "get people talking" about libertarianism, in a way that will set the stage for a mainstream libertarian political movement. As if people don't already know what libertarianism is and find it pretty repulsive. This isn't a real libertarian position, though. This is a map of the mental gymnastics libertarians will perform to justify voting for Ted Cruz. In reality it's because libertarians at best don't care about social issues and at worst are actually social conservatives.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:20
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Huckabee I don't think Huckabee is in this one, surely he isn't both hawking the biblical cancer cure and going to pretend to be a viable candidate for president.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:24
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ComradeCosmobot posted:After the obvious establishment candidate (Bush), Cruz's biggest hurdle is Walker (and to a lesser extent, Perry). Yeah, my analysis is completely discounting Perry because I fully expect him to embarrass himself once again in the debates. I mean, Perry was a lightweight even among the relatively fluffy field of 2012, which does not bode well for him. As for Walker, I think that people in DnD tend to oversell him at Cruz's expense. The Koch's, above all else, want to avoid being humiliated. In my opinion, that's why they are spending 800 million dollars to basically start their own party. If they see their boy Walker get pantsed on national television, which I fully expect Cruz to do, I think that's going to take a lot of shine off the apple and all of a sudden that money is going to be going to Cruz. The Koch's could also double down on Walker, and try to drown Cruz in a supertanker of money, but the path of least resistance might just be shoving Walker down the memory hole. Three Olives posted:I don't think Huckabee is in this one, surely he isn't both hawking the biblical cancer cure and going to pretend to be a viable candidate for president. I think Huckabee was done the moment Romney leaked that devastating attack ad calling Huckabee out for his pardons.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:25
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Fried Chicken posted:There has been a theory amongst the conservative crowd that McCain and Romney lost not because people rejected their ideas, or because of electoral fundamentals, or because they ran an inferior campaign, or even because Obama cheated, but because there is a great "silent majority" of Freep level super conservatives out there that stayed home rather than compromise themselves and vote for "liberals" like Sen. "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" and Gov. "47%". Cruz is, by all appearances, one of the subscribers to that theory, and he thinks he will be the one to awaken and motivate these voters. Some right wing talking head wrote an article or blog post about this right after the 2012 election and it immediately took hold among the right as gospel truth. I think it fixated upon the fact that there were something like 6 million fewer voters for Romney than McCain, so rather than examine the reasons behind this there was a simple assumption that 6 million GOP voters stayed home. It would be pretty important to examine stuff like just how many GOP voters can be expected to die or become too medically infirm to vote every four years (an interesting question, given the demographics), how many actually voted but voted for the other party, etc. But no. The true GOP electorate waits for Zombie Reagan to arise from his dreamless slumber to begin his terrible reign.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:26
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Three Olives posted:I don't think Huckabee is in this one, surely he isn't both hawking the biblical cancer cure and going to pretend to be a viable candidate for president. Who else can cure the spiritual cancer afflicting America? 
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Mar 23, 2015 17:30
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Zwabu posted:Some right wing talking head wrote an article or blog post about this right after the 2012 election and it immediately took hold among the right as gospel truth. I think it fixated upon the fact that there were something like 6 million fewer voters for Romney than McCain, so rather than examine the reasons behind this there was a simple assumption that 6 million GOP voters stayed home. It would be pretty important to examine stuff like just how many GOP voters can be expected to die or become too medically infirm to vote every four years (an interesting question, given the demographics), how many actually voted but voted for the other party, etc. I think this is kind of always at the backs of their minds, whether they say it or not. After all, the whole reason for American conservatism is to protect "Real America," which sort of requires that much or most of American be conservative. When they lose, it's because Real Americans didn't show up.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:31
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MC Nietzche posted:Yeah, my analysis is completely discounting Perry because I fully expect him to embarrass himself once again in the debates. I mean, Perry was a lightweight even among the relatively fluffy field of 2012, which does not bode well for him. You might be right, but I think the Kochs would probably err on the side of having a literal yes man in the White House over someone with substance but who is on their side. Walker might be an intellectual lightweight, but he has never bitten the hands that feed him and has managed to build a coalition of voters across several of the pillars of the modern Republican Party. Cruz, on the other hand, has been too eager to burn bridges in the party and I'm not sure the Kochs can be certain that they won't be burned by supporting him. Plus, Cruz is at a severe fundraising disadvantage so long as the Kochs can back Walker without backing an announced candidate while Cruz has to live within FEC guidelines. And the longer that goes on, the harder it is for Cruz to get a leg up and survive the first few debates while Walker burns through what remains of the Kochs' seed money. If Cruz can secure a big sugar daddy early enough though, he might have a chance. After all, I haven't heard who Adelson is going to back this go around. EDIT: Basically this: uncurable mlady posted:lol fuckin ted cruz will be lucky to make it to iowa if he's announcing in march, dude gotta be broke as a joke and unless he's planning to santorum it across Iowa I don't really see him having enough cash to really stay in the mix ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 17:34
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Mineaiki posted:This isn't a real libertarian position, though. This is a map of the mental gymnastics libertarians will perform to justify voting for Ted Cruz. In reality it's because libertarians at best don't care about social issues and at worst are actually social conservatives. In what universe is Cruz even a libertarian?
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Mar 23, 2015 17:35
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lol fuckin ted cruz will be lucky to make it to iowa if he's announcing in march, dude gotta be broke as a joke and unless he's planning to santorum it across Iowa I don't really see him having enough cash to really stay in the mix
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Mar 23, 2015 17:36
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ComradeCosmobot posted:You might be right, but I think the Kochs would probably err on the side of having a literal yes man in the White House over someone with substance but who is on their side. Walker might be an intellectual lightweight, but he has never bitten the hands that feed him and has managed to build a coalition of voters across several of the pillars of the modern Republican Party. Good points. There is also another possibility we may be discounting: Walker just doesn't run at all. Right now the Republican field stands at 1, Ted Cruz. That's definitely going to change, but we really don't actually know who is going to be running for the big job at this point.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:37
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I think we should wait and see how the post-Liberty talk around Cruz goes before we get really into his chances. It was a pretty important political move, so he might have just gotten a lot of support. He's obviously really gunning for the social conservatives, probably because he knows he has better chances there than Walker already.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:37
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Zwabu posted:Some right wing talking head wrote an article or blog post about this right after the 2012 election and it immediately took hold among the right as gospel truth. I think it fixated upon the fact that there were something like 6 million fewer voters for Romney than McCain, so rather than examine the reasons behind this there was a simple assumption that 6 million GOP voters stayed home. It would be pretty important to examine stuff like just how many GOP voters can be expected to die or become too medically infirm to vote every four years (an interesting question, given the demographics), how many actually voted but voted for the other party, etc. That was Steve Sailer with a post on racist website VDARE who argued that rather than make inroads with minorities, get more whites to vote. His logic was "whites votes for Romney, of the percent that stayed home X were white, all of them would have voted for Romney because they were white and whites voted for Romney, X+Romney's total > Obama's total, so the GOP needs to make a pitch to activate more white voters". At the time he was ignore by the talking R heads and mocked by data wonks, and the GOP came out with their post election document saying "we need to do better with Hispanics, blacks, women, and youth voters." But the base ate it up and you got that document steadily pushed back, and now stuff like the GOP response to the "Arab voters" comments in Israeli elections where the GOP is in full defense of racially split voting and racial fear GOTV. Things are getting ugly. I think Walker will run the worst campaign in those grounds
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Mar 23, 2015 17:39
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Series DD Funding posted:In what universe is Cruz even a libertarian? He doesn't have to be, as long as he's pro-business. The point is that libertarians will still vote for him and similar candidates. Rand will obviously draw most of their votes, but still. I remember the last VA Gubernatorial election and listening to all the libertarians justifying voting for Ken Cuccinelli, an ultra-conservative known for throwing away tax money on ridiculous politically-charged lawsuits, over Sarvis, who was an actual libertarian candidate and just happened to have a high chance of losing. Libertarians are just another group of people happy with the status quo and afraid of progressive government policy. They'll vote for anyone who promises to protect them from taxes and the horror of having to serve black people at their businesses.
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Mar 23, 2015 17:44
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I wonder if it'll be possible anymore to run sucessfully for president without having attended an Ivy school (Or be very rich)
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Mar 23, 2015 17:49
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Series DD Funding posted:In what universe is Cruz even a libertarian? republican identity politics is structured around the way you choose to prioritize your hatred. southern republicans hate blacks the most and generally don't care about other policy matters as long as you promise to keep the Uppity Coloreds in their place. right-libertarians and coastal republicans hate taxes and Government the most. They hate black people too, but structure that hatred around blacks as agents/motivators of Big Government and taxation. southwestern republicans hate mexicans the most. They hate taxes and blacks too, but these issues are less severe to them because they don't pay any taxes and don't have any blacks. you wouldn't find Cruz drinking at a bar with either proudhon or ayn rand, but he and the tea party movement in general can be described as broadly right-libertarian in the sense that Big Gumbent is their single biggest rhetorical target. The fact that Big Gumbent is dogwhistle talk and a lot of them would probably be cool with an authoritarian state if it enforced biblical norms is a different matter, as they have chosen to pursue their goals in a libertarian manner. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 17:53
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uncurable mlady posted:lol fuckin ted cruz will be lucky to make it to iowa if he's announcing in march, dude gotta be broke as a joke and unless he's planning to santorum it across Iowa I don't really see him having enough cash to really stay in the mix a good post I think Cruz' ego will make him run a national campaign and he won't end up doing the glad-handing expected in Iowa and New Hampshire. Jumping in this early is a bad move.
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Mar 23, 2015 18:00
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Zwabu posted:Some right wing talking head wrote an article or blog post about this right after the 2012 election and it immediately took hold among the right as gospel truth. I think it fixated upon the fact that there were something like 6 million fewer voters for Romney than McCain, so rather than examine the reasons behind this there was a simple assumption that 6 million GOP voters stayed home. It would be pretty important to examine stuff like just how many GOP voters can be expected to die or become too medically infirm to vote every four years (an interesting question, given the demographics), how many actually voted but voted for the other party, etc. That's an interesting 'fact' to focus on, since Romney actually got half a million votes more than McCain, while Obama lost about 4 million.
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Mar 23, 2015 18:03
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quote:Democrats On Cruz Presidential Campaign Announcement: ‘Sent Shivers Down’ Our Spine Worrisome.
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Mar 23, 2015 18:04
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Grouchio posted:I wonder if it'll be possible anymore to run sucessfully for president without having attended an Ivy school (Or be very rich) Scott Walker~
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Mar 23, 2015 18:08
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Fried Chicken posted:Cruz is, by all appearances, one of the subscribers to that theory, and he thinks he will be the one to awaken and motivate these voters. You gotta admit if Cruz has in fact mastered the dark art of necromancy it would be a pretty neat parlor trick.
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Mar 23, 2015 18:10
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I believe Cruz and Carson are the only candidates in the Republican field this year who attended Ivies. eta:  Nope, Trump went to UPenn.
Joementum fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 18:10
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Penn is one of the "lesser Ivies" according to Cruz.
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Mar 23, 2015 18:14
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