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DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe

shadow puppet of a posted:

How quickly you've erased 'Let him die!' *cheers*, from your memory

Or the people cheering Rick Perry's executions, or the people booing an American soldier because he was gay.

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shadow puppet of a
Jan 10, 2007

NO TENGO SCORPIO


Damnit, I forgot about the Rick Perry one. That was mindblowing. Pure President Camacho induced vertigo.

But yes, the debates themselves for policy-discussion content are trash, its the gaffes and laffes that make them 'good'.

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

shadow puppet of a posted:

How quickly you've erased 'Let him die!' *cheers*, from your memory
"Oops."
Booing a gay soldier.
$10,000 bet.
Newt GIngrich loses his poo poo at the moderator.

Big Bird.
Biden laughing.
Binders full of women.
Horses and bayonets.

shadow puppet of a
Jan 10, 2007

NO TENGO SCORPIO


I'm having full on debate flashbacks and my left arm is getting shooting pains in the memories of John King interrupting everyone to say "um"

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
"We have these things called aircraft carriers. PLANES LAND ON THEM."

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

Joementum posted:

To be clear, my opinion of Walker's chances is confined to the primary, which I believe he has a chance (though certainly no guarantee) of winning, as does Jeb and a few of the other contenders.

Ted Cruz does not. He thinks he does, but he is incorrect. I am totally certain that I'll be proven correct on this point.

yeah, but if there is one thing I've learned from the past few primaries, its that if you only focus on who will win the nomination you end up missing a hell of a lot. Ted Cruz will go down, sure, but when he flames out, his position in the polls until then, who backs him, etc will impact the coalition of support available to the rest, which will in turn impact their chances, and ultimately which groups of the party have how much power in the eventual nominee's camp.

Plus now that he is officially declared, every time he goes running off after some bit of stupidity its going to drag the rest of them into it, either to refute or to agree with.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold
Anderson? Anderson? Anderson Anderson Anderson Anderson andeRSON ANDERSON ANDERSON!!!

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

Newt GIngrich loses his poo poo at the moderator.

This was every debate. He thought bullying the moderator would make him see above the fray and presidential. It was all theatrics. He sometimes got annoyed with the other candidates, but I don't think he ever actually lost his poo poo for real when engaging with a moderator.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
You are nuts if you think getting hot at a moderator was a Gingrich moment and not his pledge to colonize the moon.

Joementum posted:

To be clear, my opinion of Walker's chances is confined to the primary, which I believe he has a chance (though certainly no guarantee) of winning, as does Jeb and a few of the other contenders.

Ted Cruz does not. He thinks he does, but he is incorrect. I am totally certain that I'll be proven correct on this point.

Well neither Walker nor Cruz are going to be standing as the Republican Candidate. Honestly, any scenario where Walker has a shot is also one ripe for the return of Mitt. I'd give Mitt a higher probability than either of them.

blunt for century
Jul 4, 2008

I've got a bone to pick.

If George Romney, born to American parents in Mexico, wasn't eligible, wouldn't that exclude Cruz too?

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Beamed posted:

Are you willing to :toxx:?

No, because that's stupid.

TEAYCHES
Jun 23, 2002

Doesn't the dismissal of people like Walker and Cruz leave Jeb in front? Who else is viable if that's the case?

Enigma89
Jan 2, 2007

by CVG

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

What's interesting about 2016 is how a lot of candidates are basically knockoffs of the 2012 circus.

- Jeb Bush is basically Mitt Romney. He's the unbearably dull inevitability that makes people scream out for anybody else. Except he has the Bush name attached, which is poison to anyone not registered Republican, and also quite a few registered Republicans.
- Scott Walker is basically Rick Perry. Both are incredibly lovely governors, but the key difference between the two is that Scott Walker can't fall back on "THAT'S HOW WE ROLL IN THE LONE STAR STATE! YEE HAAAAW!"
- Ted Cruz is a Michelle Bachmann more palatable to the GOP base. He has a great speaking voice, and doesn't have crazy bug eyes.
- Mike Huckabee is an even shittier Rick Santorum. Both are die-hard theocrats, but as we've seen recently, Huckabee is also a straight-up scam artist.
- Rand Paul is Ron Paul. This one isn't hard at all, come on.
- Ben Carson is Herman Cain. Plenty in common. Both have no political experience, no idea about how things actually work, and of course, the only reason they're even slightly relevant to the Republican Primaries: they both love to eat pizza.
- Bobby Jindal is Tim Pawlenty because Iowa may as well be on the moon for him.

Now here is where things get messier.

In terms of voting record, Chris Christie is unquestionably the John Huntsman equivalent, while Marco Rubio is more comparable to Newt Gingrich. However, in terms of personality, Chris Christie is basically a perfect match to Newt Gingrich, as they are both unbelievable assholes and incredibly confrontational. Rubio isn't as perfect a match to Huntsman in terms of personality, but both do have that whole "amicable guy who is not the establishment" thing going for them, though Huntsman actually had the voting record to back up the narrative of him being The Only Sane Man.


Basically the 2016 Primaries are essentially going to be a remake of a movie that came out four years ago.

Agreed 110%

Zeitgueist posted:

Cali is not a blue state outside of SF and LA.

SF and LA are California :smug:

shadow puppet of a
Jan 10, 2007

NO TENGO SCORPIO


Gyges posted:

I'd give Mitt a higher probability than either of them.
Wont Mitt be in an actual coma following his bout with Evander Holyfiield? I know its some charity thing but anyone with actual boxing training is dangerous in a ring against someone that has no idea what they are in for. Look at Uwe Boll vs Lowtax. Then multiply Uwe Boll by an order of magnitude and subtract any tangibles you can find in Lowtax and you have a scenario where should Evander momentarily decide to lightly chin-check Mitt, the man could be on the receiving end of a prayer vigil.

What is the deal with that fight?

Enigma89
Jan 2, 2007

by CVG

TEAYCHES posted:

Doesn't the dismissal of people like Walker and Cruz leave Jeb in front? Who else is viable if that's the case?

I had a dream that in the Press Room Obama asked for Cruz's birth certificate during a Q&A session

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

shadow puppet of a posted:

Wont Mitt be in an actual coma following his bout with Evander Holyfiield? I know its some charity thing but anyone with actual boxing training is dangerous in a ring against someone that has no idea what they are in for. Look at Uwe Boll vs Lowtax. Then multiply Uwe Boll by an order of magnitude and subtract any tangibles you can find in Lowtax and you have a scenario where should Evander momentarily decide to lightly chin-check Mitt, the man could be on the receiving end of a prayer vigil.

What is the deal with that fight?

It's for charity and there is no way in hell Holyfield isn't going to be holding himself back a lot.

Series DD Funding
Nov 25, 2014

by exmarx

blunt for century posted:

If George Romney, born to American parents in Mexico, wasn't eligible, wouldn't that exclude Cruz too?

I don't think the natural-born citizen clause has ever really been litigated.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

TEAYCHES posted:

Doesn't the dismissal of people like Walker and Cruz leave Jeb in front? Who else is viable if that's the case?

Jeb. Jeb is the viable candidate at this point. Paul, Walker, Cruz and Rubio are the could happen* candidates. Everyone else is complete and total clown shoes. Then even further down the ladder are your Trumps and Palins.

*won't happen

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

TEAYCHES posted:

Doesn't the dismissal of people like Walker and Cruz leave Jeb in front? Who else is viable if that's the case?

If you, foolishly, dismiss Walker, yes. He Jeb, Rubio, and Kasich (if he decides to start organizing in the next couple months) are all plausible nominees. Huckabee would be as well if he started showing evidence that this is anything more than a pure grift this time. Even Rand has an (unlikely and unconventional) chance, though he'll have to jump through quite a few hoops to keep his people in line while expanding his support and I'm not sure he has the political skill for it.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
The reason Cruz will ultimately do much better than Walker is because there is room for only one establishment backed sensible candidate and they will soak up all the sensible establishment money and that man's name is Jeb Bush.

There is room for a half dozen fringe crazies who will each enjoy a turn as the dance partner of thoroughly senseless unestablished tea party half of the voter base. Cruz I imagine will do a little better then most who fall into that pattern because he absolutely believes he deserves it and won't completely disintegrate under the glare of a national spotlight.

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007
Holy hell the onion is knocking it out of the park with Ted Cruz's announcement:

'Time' Magazine Subscribers Brace For Inevitable Issue With Close-Up Of Ted Cruz's Face

Ted Cruz Boldly Declares Nation Not Deserving Of Better Candidate

Who Is Ted Cruz?

quote:

Political Positions: Deafening

Ethnicity: White enough

Supporters: Those people from high school who got married when they were 18

Speaks: Spanish, English, Tongues

Campaign Slogan: “I’m Ted Cruz”

Likelihood Of Becoming President: Huckabeesque

Campaign Platform: Be a distraction for a few months

Largest Obstacles To Nomination: Scott Walker, Rand Paul, five seconds of scrutiny

Could Be Fun To Watch As Campaign Sputters Along: Sure

Number Of Presidential Runs Left In Him: Ugh, at least three or four

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

DynamicSloth posted:

The reason Cruz will ultimately do much better than Walker is because there is room for only one establishment backed sensible candidate and they will soak up all the sensible establishment money and that man's name is Jeb Bush.

Also untrue. There were at least three in 2008.

There are very few hard rules in nomination battles but the one is that you need to have support from actors in your party and Cruz does not. It is hard to overstate how much he has pissed off fellow Republican politicians and he can't win without them, in fact they will work hard to stop him.

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

Joementum posted:

Also untrue. There were at least three in 2008.

There are very few hard rules in nomination battles but the one is that you need to have support from actors in your party and Cruz does not. It is hard to overstate how much he has pissed off fellow Republican politicians and he can't win without them, in fact they will work hard to stop him.

Do you think Cruz is determined enough to pull a TR and splinter off his own candidacy outside of the party?

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc
https://youtu.be/j3roG09O6T4

Cmon, Obama manhandling Romney still doesn't come close to Biden destroying Ryan for ninety minutes.

TEAYCHES
Jun 23, 2002

I know it sounds crazy but I still don't think another Bush can win the nomination. Among the conservatives I know, George W Bush did not leave a fantastic legacy. Someone other than him will break out and win, whatever the current polling is on "recognition"

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Sir Tonk posted:

https://youtu.be/j3roG09O6T4

Cmon, Obama manhandling Romney still doesn't come close to Biden destroying Ryan for ninety minutes.

That was beautiful to (re)watch.

Biden skewers Ryan effortlessly.

"Folks. Follow your instincts on this one. And with regard to Social Security, we will not privatize it. If we had listened to Governor Romney and the congressman during the Bush years, imagine where all those seniors would be now if their money had been in the market. Their ideas are old and their ideas are bad and they eliminate the guarantee of Medicare."

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Bel Shazar posted:

Do you think Cruz is determined enough to pull a TR and splinter off his own candidacy outside of the party?

No, his advisers are already moving the goalposts and saying this could be like Reagan in '76, with Cruz building toward a future victory.* He'll stay in the Senate and keep being a giant rear end in a top hat and he'll probably draw a primary challenger in 2018.

* This narrative ignores the decade and a half of party building work Reagan did before '76.

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc
Cruz doesn't need to win, he can just go down fighting and ride the media circuit for the rest of his life. His wife is rich as gently caress, dude can do whatever he wants.

PupsOfWar
Dec 6, 2013

Sir Tonk posted:

Cruz doesn't need to win, he can just go down fighting and ride the media circuit for the rest of his life. His wife is rich as gently caress, dude can do whatever he wants.

I think you underestimate the ego of Rafael Edward Cruz

dude will never be content whining a liberals from a talk-radio studio or a podium on a forty-minute FOX show. He'll keep either running or positioning to run until Texans drag him off of the senate floor with a brace of oxen, which may be when he's in his nineties for all we know.

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:

TEAYCHES posted:

I know it sounds crazy but I still don't think another Bush can win the nomination. Among the conservatives I know, George W Bush did not leave a fantastic legacy. Someone other than him will break out and win, whatever the current polling is on "recognition"

Yeah, but the other thing to pay attention to is fundraising, and Jeb Bush is leading in that battle right now.

TEAYCHES
Jun 23, 2002

There's the two Roosevelts, the Adams' presidencies, uh

Three family members from the same party, alternating with the other party sequentially? It's incredible in the definition of the world, I'm incredulous that the nominee for the Republican party could be the third Republican Bush in a row from the same family. There's no precedent.

bob_the_catdog
Mar 2, 2007
Cake or Death
Wasn't Rand Paul meant to have a speaking event on Monday night as well where people were speculating that he would announce his candidacy. Does anyone know what happened to it? Was he just trumped by Cruz?

PupsOfWar
Dec 6, 2013

bob_the_catdog posted:

Wasn't Rand Paul meant to have a speaking event on Monday night as well where people were speculating that he would announce his candidacy. Does anyone know what happened to it? Was he just trumped by Cruz?

well-sourced word is that Rand's announcement will be in early April, in louisville.

PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 04:02 on Mar 24, 2015

blunt for century
Jul 4, 2008

I've got a bone to pick.

What's the point of announcing when you're going to announce your candidacy? Isn't that effectively the same as just announcing your candidacy?

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
It's not a matter of if Ted Cruz will win the nomination, it's how much of the GOP will he burn to the ground to try and get the nomination.

Barring a mysterious incident involving a bunch of misplaced knives Ted will follow every Republican candidate around trashing them and telling the world that He, Ted Cruz is the only actual conservative option.

Grey Fox
Jan 5, 2004

blunt for century posted:

What's the point of announcing when you're going to announce your candidacy? Isn't that effectively the same as just announcing your candidacy?
it's hard to corral enough folks to fill a Pizza Ranch with a moment's notice

PupsOfWar
Dec 6, 2013

it is suspicious to me that rand paul times his announcement to coincide with the NCAA championship game

I wonder if Cruz jumping in will prompt any of the other major players to advance their timetables so as to prevent him from having the airwaves all to himself for (possibly) a matter of weeks or months.
Or would his solo-act help to de-legitimize him?

Bodhidharma
Jul 2, 2011

"virgin no more! virgin no more!" i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob

Bel Shazar posted:

Do you think Cruz is determined enough to pull a TR and splinter off his own candidacy outside of the party?

I think Ted Cruz wants the job bad enough that he'd be willing to do anything for it. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if he ran as an Independent just to split the vote for the Republican nominee.

TEAYCHES
Jun 23, 2002

Ted Cruz is a Manchurian candidate, trained by Castro himself. A Cuban, raised in Canada, who is trying to bring authoritarian Communist values to these United States.

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GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Grey Fox posted:

it's hard to corral enough folks to fill a Pizza Ranch with a moment's notice

It bothers me that I now know stuff about Pizza Ranch. Just another thing to blame the Republicans for.

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