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Anecdotally, Rep. Todd Young is a lot more well-known than Stutzman in the state.
Hello Towel has issued a correction as of 01:25 on Mar 26, 2015 |
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Mar 26, 2015 01:21
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:So are Birch and Evan Indianan analogues to Mario and Andrew, then? The son coasting on his father's name and goodwill to get into office? Evan actually had a residency challenge when he ran for his first political office, Secretary of State. He had spent most of his life living in (I believe) Virginia because his father is a Senator. Even his car was registered there. But an Indiana court ruled that he had always meant to return to Indiana so it is okay. Birch Bayh also had a residency challenge in 1974 against a very nasty and negative campaign against then Indianapolis Mayor Richard Lugar. Republican activists challenged Bayh's residency at the precinct voting entrance, which was very close to the Bayh home and farm. They eventually relented and Bayh was allowed to cast his vote. In the shadow of Watergate, it was one of the closer elections that year with Bayh only winning by 50.7%. Lugar even lost Marion County as a sitting Indianapolis Mayor. Lugar would later run and win in 1976. Evan currently rents some dumpy apartment on Indianapolis' north side to maintain residency and voting, which I'm sure he spends a lot of time in between his Fox News appearances and his beltway lobbying gigs. Birch lives full time in Maryland and is with some law firm.
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Mar 26, 2015 14:42
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Tammy Duckworth has started fundraising for an Illinois Senate bid against Mark Kirk (and Joe Walsh  ).
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Mar 26, 2015 20:51
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Joementum posted:Tammy Duckworth has started fundraising for an Illinois Senate bid against Mark Kirk (and Joe Walsh She's by far the most exciting Senate candidate this year. I think Mark Kirk should be very afraid.
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Mar 27, 2015 03:00
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Concerned Citizen posted:She's by far the most exciting Senate candidate this year. I don't know. I think Senator Harris is going to be pretty great.
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Mar 27, 2015 03:04
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Joementum posted:I don't know. I think Senator Harris is going to be pretty great. She's a good candidate, but she won't face serious opposition. But Tammy Duckworth is only 47 and a double amputee veteran of the Iraq War. And she's a very talented politician. Harris will be a good Senator, but Duckworth is a potential superstar. In a decade or so, she could be a VP or potentially even a formidable candidate for President herself.
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Mar 27, 2015 03:28
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Concerned Citizen posted:she could be a VP or potentially even a formidable candidate for President herself. Going by Cruz rules here then I guess
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Mar 27, 2015 04:41
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Riptor posted:Going by Cruz rules here then I guess Except she's sane, competent, has an incredible biography, great political skills, and she can raise a lot of money - even though she's only been a House candidate! She's a fantastic candidate, and given enough time to develop her resume she will be a force in the Democratic party. She's absolutely a rising star.
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Mar 27, 2015 08:02
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Joementum posted:I don't know. I think Senator Harris is going to be pretty great.
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Mar 27, 2015 10:30
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Harry Reid will retire after this term, making Nevada a likely Republican gain in 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqPWTECMIQo
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Mar 27, 2015 13:00
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Congratulations to Senator Sandoval.
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Mar 27, 2015 13:06
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Joementum posted:Harry Reid will retire after this term, making Nevada a likely Republican gain in 2016. Son of a bitch. Guess he saw the writing on the wall. Plus, this makes Chuck loving Schumer Majority/Minority Leader, a choice that's arguably worse than Reid ever was.
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Mar 27, 2015 13:11
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Well, darn. I know Reid gets a lot of poo poo in D&D foir not being the two-fisted crusader of proletariat, but as long as I have been following politics I have deeply admired the man: he's a skilled parliamentarian, did a good job of keeping his caucus in line, and perhaps most of all, was the greatest Trollmaster-General I have ever seen (sorry, Stockman). Here is my all-time favourite Reid moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOw9vMh8A6M My big question now is: who is going to be the new Democratic Senate Leader? Will Durbin take it, or is he going to have a fight on his hands with Schumer?
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Mar 27, 2015 13:14
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Franco Potente posted:Well, darn. Schumer is the favorite, Durbin the potential challenger. It's unknown if Durbin will seriously contest it, Schumer has been angling for this for years and had been quietly lining up support in 2010 in case Reid lost.
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Mar 27, 2015 13:53
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damnit harry, Strom Up and bolt yourself into that miserable chair til the day you die
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Mar 27, 2015 13:58
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Joementum posted:Harry Reid will retire after this term, making Nevada a likely Republican gain in 2016. So the Senate is a lot less likely to go back to the Democratic party in 2016 now and the Democratic party gets a shittier leader?
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Mar 27, 2015 13:59
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Potential Democratic candidates for NV Sen: former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (said to be Reid's pick), former Secretary of State Ross Miller, and Rep. Dina Titus. Sandoval would still be the biggest get for the Republicans in that race, but there's also Rep. Joe Heck. Last term when the Republicans were filibustering all judicial confirmations (prior to the rules change) Reid decided to hold up Heck's promotion to Brigadier General in the Army Reserve.
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Mar 27, 2015 13:59
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Mitt Romney posted:So the Senate is a lot less likely to go back to the Democratic party in 2016 now and the Democratic party gets a shittier leader?
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Mar 27, 2015 14:03
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Why is the Nevada seat considered a likely Republican pickup - it's a Presidential year and Obama carried it in 2008 and 2012. Is the local bench simply that weak?
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Mar 27, 2015 14:04
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Concerned Citizen posted:Except she's sane, competent, has an incredible biography, great political skills, and she can raise a lot of money - even though she's only been a House candidate! She's a fantastic candidate, and given enough time to develop her resume she will be a force in the Democratic party. She's absolutely a rising star. My point is she was born in Thailand
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Mar 27, 2015 14:08
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evilweasel posted:Why is the Nevada seat considered a likely Republican pickup - it's a Presidential year and Obama carried it in 2008 and 2012. Is the local bench simply that weak? It's more that Sandoval is very strong and would've stood a good chance at taking the seat even if Reid had run. Without the virtues of incumbency and leadership, they don't have anybody who could put up much of a fight against Sandoval and, even if he doesn't run, will have a hard time in a state that trends R in statewides.
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Mar 27, 2015 14:09
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evilweasel posted:Why is the Nevada seat considered a likely Republican pickup - it's a Presidential year and Obama carried it in 2008 and 2012. Is the local bench simply that weak? Yes, and also Sandoval is going to run and has approval ratings in the high 60s.
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Mar 27, 2015 14:10
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Riptor posted:My point is she was born in Thailand Ted Cruz clause: her dad was American
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Mar 27, 2015 14:11
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For perspective, Brian Sandoval won re-election in 2014 with 70.6% of the vote. I don't care how weak his opponent was, that is a ridiculously high number. Republican governors in the deep south don't even win that big.
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Mar 27, 2015 14:22
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Ted Cruz clause: her dad was American yes thats the point i was making in the first place
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Mar 27, 2015 14:36
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Mitt Romney posted:So the Senate is a lot less likely to go back to the Democratic party in 2016 now and the Democratic party gets a shittier leader? Correct. That means the Dems need 5 pickups rather than 4 since Nevada is a lock for Sandoval. The viable path to this is Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, ??? (Grassley, Portman, Burr and Ayotte would be next given their states, but they're all relatively popular incumbents who are unlikely to lose; and if you think the Florida Democratic Party has anyone good enough to kick out Rubio)Meanwhile Democrats still have to defend Bennet in Colorado. The Democrats are unlikely to do worse than their 46-54 split today, but their path to even 50-50 is tough. ComradeCosmobot has issued a correction as of 15:34 on Mar 27, 2015 |
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Mar 27, 2015 15:31
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Correct. That means the Dems need 5 pickups rather than 4 since Nevada is a lock for Sandoval. The viable path to this is Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, ??? (Grassley, Portman, Burr and Ayotte would be next given their states, but they're all highly popular incumbents who are unlikely to lose; and I know i've brought this up before, but I am not so sure Ayotte is as bulletproof as people make her out to be. She won a pretty big victory in 2010, but that was a Tea Party midterm. Things'll be tougher for her in a presidential year, and I'm pretty sure the Dems are trying to recruit Governor Hassan, who is likewise popular. If they manage to get Maggie, I see that race being a total tossup. Granted, this doesn't answer the question of where the Dems find their fifth seat. Maybe if Portman has a particularly bruising primary, Strickland might snake him. Or maybe Matheson will ride in on his white horse and unseat Lee in Utah
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Mar 27, 2015 15:34
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IIRC Portman has sub-50% name recognition in Ohio and the Democrats recruited Strickland to run against him. It'll be a close race, but it's winnable for the Democrats. Ayotte in New Hampshire is also vulnerable, if the Democrats can get a good challenger. Maybe Scott Brown will decide that he's always been a Democrat, in his heart.
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Mar 27, 2015 15:35
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Goddammit, Harry: Reid Endorses Schumer for Democratic Senate Leader Judging by what folks have said in this thread, it sounded like a done deal anyway, but I just can't believe we're swapping out Reid for Schumer.
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Mar 27, 2015 16:57
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Reid also endorsed former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and spoke with her this morning, so that's your likely NV Dem Sen candidate.
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Mar 27, 2015 17:03
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Joementum posted:Reid also endorsed former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and spoke with her this morning, so that's your likely NV Dem Sen candidate. Anyone know anything about her? Does she have a shot at winning (say Sandoval gets Mike Castle'd)?
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Mar 27, 2015 17:06
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Of course we get Schumer. drat.
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Mar 27, 2015 17:25
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Well, it's a caucus decision. Reid's endorsement will carry weigh, especially if Durbin (and Murray!) really does stand down, but Chuck's still got to get his colleagues to agree. And that decision isn't for another 22 months. A lot could change. Also: Chuck will first have to win re-election in 2016. 
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Mar 27, 2015 17:28
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Joementum posted:Also: Chuck will first have to win re-election in 2016. im zephyr teachout and for senate i endorse my twin brother, gloaming teachout
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Mar 27, 2015 17:33
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Correct. That means the Dems need 5 pickups rather than 4 since Nevada is a lock for Sandoval. The viable path to this is Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, ??? (Grassley, Portman, Burr and Ayotte would be next given their states, but they're all relatively popular incumbents who are unlikely to lose; and It's possible that Rubio keeps his promise and doesn't run because of his ill-advised run for the 2016 nomination. If so I'm sure the Florida Democratic Party will find a way to gently caress it all up anyway. Though running in 2016 could be enough to boost a Democrat into office. We'll get Alex Sink/Charlie Crist, round 3, instead though.
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Mar 27, 2015 17:39
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Crist already said he's not running. I guess it may be Murphy from Broward.
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Mar 27, 2015 17:42
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Riptor posted:My point is she was born in Thailand I'd rather have a Thai infiltrator than a Canadian infiltrator.
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Mar 27, 2015 18:55
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I'm going to go against the trend on this thread and predict that Reid's seat will stay Democratic, for four reasons. 1) Whoever the Dem candidate is (probably Catherine Cortez Masto, who has won two statewide races) will have Reid's Nevada machine and his nationwide political network to help them. 2) The Republican field isn't as strong as it seems. Sandoval has been angering the far-right Nevada GOP (and Grover Norquist hates him), and it's not even clear if Sandoval wants to run. Anyone else will run into Reid's buzzsaw, and won't have the benefit against running against Reid himself (who can be portrayed as a Washington insider). 3) It's a presidential year with presidential turnout. That always helps the Democrats. 4) The Nevada GOP are still in their little civil war, so unless Sandoval can get everyone to sit down and shut up and vote for a single candidate, they're going to spend time, media attention, and money trying to out-conservative themselves. I think the Nevada GOP can win, but I don't think they're favored, especially if they can't get Sandoval (who's apparently more interested in executive jobs anyway).
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Mar 27, 2015 19:20
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while we can't technically we can't say 100%, there is a 99.9998% chance Sandoval runs for and wins the Senate seat from Nevada. The only thing that can stop it is a major scandal happening about his administration before then
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Mar 27, 2015 22:20
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Gygaxian posted:I'm going to go against the trend on this thread and predict that Reid's seat will stay Democratic, for four reasons. I would give Dems the advantage, but in 2012 Obama won the state by nearly 7 points and we still ended up with Sen. Heller. It's going to be tough for sure.
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Mar 27, 2015 22:41
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