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baw
Nov 5, 2008

RESIDENT: LAISSEZ FAIR-SNEZHNEVSKY INSTITUTE FOR FORENSIC PSYCHIATRY

PupsOfWar posted:

Conservatism will never die.

even if the libertarians take over the republican party, the religious right will not abandon them right away.

It is important to remember that mainstream american libertarians - including the pauls and every other libertarian who has ever accumulated any political power - are more federalist/neo-confederate than anything. If the party leadership goes ostensibly ~pro-gay~, it will be expressed as sticking up for the States' Rights of hippies in Vermont and Oregon, not as any kind of imperative to fight for the civil liberties of americans.

The religious right will gripe a bit but will ultimately be fine with the States' Rights line, as they will (accurately) interpret it as "we can still oppress the gays so long as we are able to take/maintain control over the state government", which they generally can in the states where they matter to begin with.

A genuine fragmenting of the republican coalition would likely require the party leadership to veer left on most-every social issue - gay rights, black rights, immigration, weed, criminal justice reform, abortion - all at once, in a fairly sweeping way, while the democrats remained static on those issues.

This isn't something that they will do willingly, they will be forced into moderation because of slow but inevitable changes in demographics. It's a matter of when, not if.

If out of the ashes there grows a GOP that doesn't rely on racism and religious fundamentalists to attract votes, I'll consider it a massive victory.

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A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

mcmagic posted:

I don't think that is what will do it if Civil Rights for black people didn't.

The majority of liberal white people still don't really like black people, it's just that they realize you can't treat them like second class citizens. I mean really, how many liberal white people that you know would be totally cool living in a black neighborhood, or having a black family move in next to them?

Most liberal white people are cool with the gays though so it's way less of an issue.

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

baw posted:

I'd love for American conservatism to finally tear itself apart on the hill of gay rights. It would be almost poetic.

Drop the "birches and churches", go straight paleoconservative and I could see myself potentially voting for them (depending on the specifics of the platform).

esto es malo
Aug 3, 2006

Don't want to end up a cartoon

In a cartoon graveyard

Fried Chicken posted:

Drop the "birches and churches", go straight paleoconservative and I could see myself potentially voting for them (depending on the specifics of the platform).

haha what, paleoconservatism still has tons of poo poo in it dude

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Salon did an overall on the Reid mobster conspiracy theory that some of us were joking about yesterday.

site
Apr 6, 2007

Trans pride, Worldwide
Bitch

zoux posted:

Salon did an overall on the Reid mobster conspiracy theory that some of us were joking about yesterday.
Gotta admit, getting worked over by the mob is at least a more interesting story than hurting yourself exercising. Plus you can get cred for sticking to your guns afterwords.

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

joeburz posted:

haha what, paleoconservatism still has tons of poo poo in it dude

Then I suppose my background in it is insufficient, my exposure to it has been the post 9/11 "the wars are stupid, labor is needed to balance the power of capital, global warming is real and serious, public programs are important and need to be sensibly designed, racism is still a thing that needs to be fought, we need serious Justice reform, invest in infrastructure" type

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver
There is a role in the American political system for a party that is preoccupied with efficient government and avoiding wasteful government spending. That said, the Republicans have not been that party for decades, and now that they are bound to the hip with the Pentagon and defense contractors, they never will be again.

Fried Chicken posted:

Then I suppose my background in it is insufficient, my exposure to it has been the post 9/11 "the wars are stupid, labor is needed to balance the power of capital, global warming is real and serious, public programs are important and need to be sensibly designed, racism is still a thing that needs to be fought, we need serious Justice reform, invest in infrastructure" type
This form of conservatism has not been prevalent since the 50s.

PupsOfWar
Dec 6, 2013

baw posted:

This isn't something that they will do willingly, they will be forced into moderation because of slow but inevitable changes in demographics. It's a matter of when, not if.

If out of the ashes there grows a GOP that doesn't rely on racism and religious fundamentalists to attract votes, I'll consider it a massive victory.

There are true believers within the ranks of GoP politicians, sure, but a ton of their policy is still driven first and foremost by corporate interests, with the social platform being nothing more than an adaptable and adjustable tool used to secure the votes of the rural poor.

What the establishment probably plans to do is wait for the gay rights issue to be mostly settled by the judiciary (reducing its utility as a campaign issue for the democrats). Then they can go "welp, too bad, we tried, law of the land, nothing we can do about it now. But let me tell you about how The Liberals want to use Your hard-earned tax dollars to purchase abortion-fetuses from the Urban Youth, for use during their heathen islamic moon-rituals" and continue on their merry way.

They've been at this for a long time and have gotten very good at slipping around setbacks to preserve their regressivism.

Local/regional conservative interests can delay this evolution by choosing to die on the hill of gay-bashing, but ultimately I'd expect most of them to get in line.

Dr. Tough
Oct 22, 2007

Fried Chicken posted:

Then I suppose my background in it is insufficient, my exposure to it has been the post 9/11 "the wars are stupid, labor is needed to balance the power of capital, global warming is real and serious, public programs are important and need to be sensibly designed, racism is still a thing that needs to be fought, we need serious Justice reform, invest in infrastructure" type

Paleoconservatism is like Barry Goldwater types. You're thinking of something along the lines of Christian Democracy or something.

Spaceman Future!
Feb 9, 2007

A Winner is Jew posted:

The majority of liberal white people still don't really like black people, it's just that they realize you can't treat them like second class citizens. I mean really, how many liberal white people that you know would be totally cool living in a black neighborhood, or having a black family move in next to them?

Most liberal white people are cool with the gays though so it's way less of an issue.

I can say that Harlem is gentrifying but its mostly other minorities and French people that cant afford to live under 100th rather than american born cookie cutter liberal white folks. There's a small subset of white people that have moved in from other states that realize that rent control knows no skin color and live like kings (Im totally a reverse carpetbagger) but yeah in general the typical liberals are terrified of being up here and cluster together in Brooklyn but not that side of Brooklyn. Racism is alive and well in very political ideology, self awareness or at least the desire to offset their own horrific views with government programs is about the only difference.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Fried Chicken posted:

Then I suppose my background in it is insufficient, my exposure to it has been the post 9/11 "the wars are stupid, labor is needed to balance the power of capital, global warming is real and serious, public programs are important and need to be sensibly designed, racism is still a thing that needs to be fought, we need serious Justice reform, invest in infrastructure" type

Only about half of those things are actual paleoconservative positions. Paleocons tend to be closer to Ron Paul. Pat Buchanan is basically paleoconservatism personified. The big planks are:

- Anti-interventionism
- Extremely Anti-immigration
- Pro-nationalism / assimilation / national identity
- Anti-Free trade
- Anti-cosmopolitanism / Anti-Multiculturalism
- Anti-Social Democracy

It is basically Edmund Burke translated to the 20th century. Small towns and communities, tradition, staying away from outside influences, cultural hegemony, unity, etc.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Apr 1, 2015

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

Dr. Tough posted:

Paleoconservatism is like Barry Goldwater types. You're thinking of something along the lines of Christian Democracy or something.

Ah, see I was of the impression the Barry Goldwater types were the "birches and churches". The American Conservative spills most of its ink denouncing those and it is my window into paleoconservative.

baw
Nov 5, 2008

RESIDENT: LAISSEZ FAIR-SNEZHNEVSKY INSTITUTE FOR FORENSIC PSYCHIATRY

Dr. Tough posted:

Paleoconservatism is like Barry Goldwater types. You're thinking of something along the lines of Christian Democracy or something.

Goldwater would be called a RINO nowadays

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSGIAfpggeA

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

A Winner is Jew posted:

The majority of liberal white people still don't really like black people, it's just that they realize you can't treat them like second class citizens. I mean really, how many liberal white people that you know would be totally cool living in a black neighborhood, or having a black family move in next to them?

Most liberal white people are cool with the gays though so it's way less of an issue.

I've been thinking for a while that this is why racism will still be a thing long after conservatives start denying they ever were against gay marriage*. With people under 50 at least, the right and left seem to be becoming increasingly unified in the belief that their gay and lesbian friends are typical examples of their fellows, in the same way that they're both unified in the belief that their black friends and relatives are "the good ones." So even while you might convince some young libertarian-flavor conservatives on the "states rights" or "business owners' rights" thing in vague principle, they're not going to really go to bat for this sort of discrimination like they will at fear of some imagined shadowy culture of welfare leechers, or like old people still shocked and appalled at two men holding hands in public will be.


*They'll probably actually be "We like that best since it means they're in committed monogamous relationships rather than dirty sluts" though.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Paleoconservatives those are the ones that eat only meat and nuts right?

baw
Nov 5, 2008

RESIDENT: LAISSEZ FAIR-SNEZHNEVSKY INSTITUTE FOR FORENSIC PSYCHIATRY

zoux posted:

Paleoconservatives those are the ones that eat only meat and nuts right?

No you're thinking of Jeb

Spaceman Future!
Feb 9, 2007

zoux posted:

Paleoconservatives those are the ones that eat only meat and nuts right?

Please don't test my highminded ideals with such a tempting gay joke setup.

D1Sergo
May 5, 2006

Be sure to take a 15-minute break every hour.

Fried Chicken posted:

Then I suppose my background in it is insufficient, my exposure to it has been the post 9/11 "the wars are stupid, labor is needed to balance the power of capital, global warming is real and serious, public programs are important and need to be sensibly designed, racism is still a thing that needs to be fought, we need serious Justice reform, invest in infrastructure" type

Communist.

:rolleyes:

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

Doctor Butts posted:

Because I know some libertarianish people who will proclaim that this is proof that the free market winning out, I'm going to cut it off at the pass.

It's not a free market victory because a group of businesses legislated the government to do something, instead of running their own business their way.

I understand that the thought comes out of nowhere, but I just anticipate these sort of arguments these days.

This is just semantics, honestly. I mean you are basically arguing this isn't a free market victory because a perfect free market doesn't exist which is a true but trivial statement.


baw posted:

I'd love for American conservatism to finally tear itself apart because of gay rights. It would be almost poetic.

The right is going to swing libertarian and will become increasingly popular with millennials.


JT Jag posted:

This form of conservatism has not been prevalent since the 50s.

Right, it was replaced by the religious right, who is now on the way out and the cycle behind anew.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
Oh Georgia, do we REALLY want to be Indiana that badly?

Crowsbeak
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Lipstick Apathy

tsa posted:


The right is going to swing libertarian and will become increasingly popular with millennials.




Yeah the only ones who will turn to that would be those who already voted Republican anyways.

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES
From the end of last thread, I thought this deserved more attention:

Article: Texas measure cuts HIV funds, boost abstinence education
From: ABC News
Date: April 1, 2015

quote:

Texas would cut $3 million from programs to prevent HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases and spend that money instead on abstinence education under a contentious Republican-sponsored measure tucked into the state budget Tuesday night.

The GOP-controlled House overwhelmingly approved the budget amendment, but not before a tense exchange with Democrats that veered into the unusually personal.

Republican state Rep. Stuart Spitzer, a doctor and the amendment's sponsor, at one point defended the change by telling the Texas House that he practiced abstinence until marriage. The first-term lawmaker said he hopes schoolchildren follow his example, saying, "What's good for me is good for a lot of people."

Democrat state Rep. Harold Dutton asked Spitzer if abstinence worked for him.

"It did," Spitzer replied. "I've had sex with one woman in my life and that's my wife."

"Is that the first woman you asked?" Dutton replied.

Shouts of "Decorum!" soon echoed on the House floor as the back-and-forth intensified.
Efforts by Democrats to put the debate in writing for the record - usually a perfunctory request - failed.

...

An appropriate response.

D1Sergo
May 5, 2006

Be sure to take a 15-minute break every hour.

tsa posted:


The right is going to swing libertarian and will become increasingly popular with millennials.


Right, it was replaced by the religious right, who is now on the way out and the cycle behind anew.


Authoritarians don't just disappear into the Ether because they're unpopular, they just rebrand and regroup. Libertarianism isn't going to get squat.

D1Sergo fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Apr 1, 2015

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

baw posted:

This isn't something that they will do willingly, they will be forced into moderation because of slow but inevitable changes in demographics. It's a matter of when, not if.

If out of the ashes there grows a GOP that doesn't rely on racism and religious fundamentalists to attract votes, I'll consider it a massive victory.

Assuming, of course, these demographic changes actually happen and aren't just a lefty wet dream. Unfortunately we are already seeing lots of evidence it's the latter.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Accretionist posted:

From the end of last thread, I thought this deserved more attention:

Article: Texas measure cuts HIV funds, boost abstinence education
From: ABC News
Date: April 1, 2015


An appropriate response.

Sounds about right. They are still pushing for Abstinence only sex ed in the South despite our loving awful Teen Pregnancy rates (and the weird idea that if you tell kids not to do something, they won't do it.)

baw
Nov 5, 2008

RESIDENT: LAISSEZ FAIR-SNEZHNEVSKY INSTITUTE FOR FORENSIC PSYCHIATRY

tsa posted:

Assuming, of course, these demographic changes actually happen and aren't just a lefty wet dream. Unfortunately we are already seeing lots of evidence it's the latter.

What? The US is becoming less white and there's no way to stop it. Racism as political strategy is going to go from being an asset to a liability within the decade.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


tsa posted:

Assuming, of course, these demographic changes actually happen and aren't just a lefty wet dream. Unfortunately we are already seeing lots of evidence it's the latter.

I don't think the demographics will necessarily lead to a supportable Democratic or liberal majority, but I do think they will ultimately kill the Reagan coalition. Unfortunately that means the country is headed for permanant gridlock until and unless the conservatives decide to compromise and work with the middle, which may or may not ever happen

D1Sergo
May 5, 2006

Be sure to take a 15-minute break every hour.

baw posted:

What? The US is becoming less white and there's no way to stop it. Race politics is going to go from being an asset to a liability within the decade.

Nah we'll just go back to picking on the Irish. Believe me, we don't need skin tone in order to discriminate against people for vaguely perceived differences. Maybe we'll just start discriminating against shifty-eyed people.

MaxxBot
Oct 6, 2003

you could have clapped

you should have clapped!!
I really hope the concerns of these large corporations wanting a good business environment and all of the attention that has been put on the fact that these red states allow discrimination actually results in something, as in getting those states to pass ENDA laws. The only possible way we get ENDA laws in those states is if what happens in Indiana happens there as well because "support gay rights or lose millions" is probably the only argument that can convince these red state politicians.

The difference in opinion on gay rights between these red state legislatures and mainstream corporate America is really quite incredible at this point. You have legislatures in 2014 that vote 2-1 for jailing gays while even loving Walmart and NASCAR view laws that may condone discrimination against gays as toxic.

site
Apr 6, 2007

Trans pride, Worldwide
Bitch

baw posted:

What? The US is becoming less white and there's no way to stop it. Racism as political strategy is going to go from being an asset to a liability within the decade.
Wishful thinking right here.

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc

Accretionist posted:

Article: Texas measure cuts HIV funds, boost abstinence education
From: ABC News
Date: April 1, 2015

Democrat state Rep. Harold Dutton asked Spitzer if abstinence worked for him.

"It did," Spitzer replied. "I've had sex with one woman in my life and that's my wife."

"Is that the first woman you asked?" Dutton replied.

These random :iceburn:s we get out of legislatures make it all worth it.

Talmonis
Jun 24, 2012
The fairy of forgiveness has removed your red text.

A Winner is Jew posted:

The majority of liberal white people still don't really like black people, it's just that they realize you can't treat them like second class citizens. I mean really, how many liberal white people that you know would be totally cool living in a black neighborhood, or having a black family move in next to them?

Most liberal white people are cool with the gays though so it's way less of an issue.

The former? probably not very many. I'd be wary of moving to a place where the vast majority of people don't look/talk like I do. I'd worry that they'd think I was some kind of gentrifier or worse. I'd worry they'd hate me for being white. I would however, move to a black neighborhood one hell of a lot quicker than one where I don't speak the language, regardless of color. I don't like being an outsider. Nobody does.

The latter? Probably most would be fine. I was happy to see my neighbors when I moved in a few doors down to a black family, as they're nice as hell. Granted, that may be because they are near my age and their kids are still kids, instead of teenagers. Because most teenagers of any race are assholes.

Black families who move into white neighborhoods? That takes a lot of will, and a lot of guts. I don't envy them that experience.

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

tsa posted:

The right is going to swing libertarian and will become increasingly popular with millennials.

Crowsbeak posted:

Yeah the only ones who will turn to that would be those who already voted Republican anyways.
Let's say that, in theory, a Republican congress endorses federal weed decriminalization (or at least nationwide legalization of medical cannabis) before a Democratic president lowers its Stage. And drops the gay bashing and... hell, maybe eases off abortion. Even with their lower class-destroying economic policies, a slight easing of their social policies as well as throwing a bone to the young voters that the Dems haven't yet would get them a lot of attention.

That said, a lot has to happen before it gets to that point.

baw
Nov 5, 2008

RESIDENT: LAISSEZ FAIR-SNEZHNEVSKY INSTITUTE FOR FORENSIC PSYCHIATRY

site posted:

Wishful thinking right here.

Like, the US is becoming less white. That's not really disputable.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
You can now pay Mitt Romney to be his towelboy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVzZ_iBY_Ok

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Sir Tonk posted:

These random :iceburn:s we get out of legislatures make it all worth it.
Follow up question should've been 'and how many men?'

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

baw posted:

Like, the US is becoming less white. That's not really disputable.
Within the century whites won't even be the majority ethnicity, even if they build a wall in all likelihood

baw
Nov 5, 2008

RESIDENT: LAISSEZ FAIR-SNEZHNEVSKY INSTITUTE FOR FORENSIC PSYCHIATRY

JT Jag posted:

Let's say that, in theory, a Republican congress endorses federal weed decriminalization (or at least nationwide legalization of medical cannabis) before a Democratic president lowers its Stage. And drops the gay bashing and... hell, maybe eases off abortion. Even with their lower class-destroying economic policies, a slight easing of their social policies as well as throwing a bone to the young voters that the Dems haven't yet would get them a lot of attention.

Then they lose the Evangelical vote, which is critical for them to even have a chance at the presidency.

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computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP
"Federal Weed decriminalization" just means the feds won't bust you for possession, which is a rare occurrence. Either they get you for something bigger (like being a dealer) or the state's laws is what they charge you under.

No matter how libertarian Republicans are, they're not going to violate the latter case because that would be the biggest anti-States' Rights crusade since Nixon and national speed limits.

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