|
quote:
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 14:41 |
|
|
# ? May 27, 2024 04:13 |
|
Jumpingmanjim posted:We've been trying to figure that out for the last 360 pages or so. If you include the time I spent arguing in a long-gone CanPol thread to convince people the bubble was even real, it's been, what, four years?
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 14:44 |
|
Franks Happy Place posted:If you include the time I spent arguing in a long-gone CanPol thread to convince people the bubble was even real, it's been, what, four years? On that point, my brother, who usually trusts me on financial matters remarked this weekend "you know, you've been saying real estate is overvalued for years, and yet it keeps getting more expensive..." What a run this asset class has had. I sure as gently caress wouldn't buy, but I'm increasingly in doubt that anything will change.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 14:49 |
|
Lexicon posted:On that point, my brother, who usually trusts me on financial matters remarked this weekend "you know, you've been saying real estate is overvalued for years, and yet it keeps getting more expensive..." That's pretty much the exact reason I came up with the Fat Guy Coronary allegory ages ago: I got tired of trying to time the bubble for idiots.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 15:30 |
|
Say what you will about Hal_2005, that was actually an accurate account of how Vancouver got to today.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 15:44 |
|
following the timeline for other bubbles bursting that CI posted a few pages ago it looks like we've just started to enter the cycle, but who knows, every bubble can burst differently unfortunately if you follow that timeline it's going to pop in the next year or two, not in the next 8 months which means whatever federal government gets elected by October is going to be hosed Rime posted:Say what you will about Hal_2005, that was actually an accurate account of how Vancouver got to today. well that's the beauty, he doesn't always post wrong stuff, or even weird stuff, it's just really hard to decipher
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 15:45 |
|
What I got out of that hal-post was that Murray pezim is a captain of industry to be respected.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 15:56 |
|
less than three posted:He's how we got the tag added. Hal_2005 is basically a kyoon/zero hedge look at the Canadian economy.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 16:30 |
|
Cultural Imperial posted:blah_blah, you might be pleased to know that hootsuite now has a 'data science' wet works type group. At least that will give some of the Stats Can layoffs something to do.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 17:45 |
|
Franks Happy Place posted:That's pretty much the exact reason I came up with the Fat Guy Coronary allegory ages ago: I got tired of trying to time the bubble for idiots. I forgot about this, but now I recall it from way back. Thanks; I'm going to use it in future - it's instructive.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 18:12 |
|
up up UP!quote:Average Toronto home prices jumped 10 per cent in March, driven by a sharp rise in the price of detached homes to well over $1-million in the city.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 18:34 |
|
Imagine how crazy the bubble will get when Canada cuts the main rate to 0%.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 18:55 |
|
I can't wait until I can actually be paid to borrow money.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 18:56 |
|
PT6A posted:I can't wait to have to pay to have money in my bank account. Adjusted for what will actually happen.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 19:00 |
|
In all fairness they should be paying people to live in provinces like Alberta.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 19:23 |
|
Xoidanor posted:Adjusted for what will actually happen. Two sides of the same coin. Lower interest rates are supposed to spur economic growth by making the decision to spend look better than the decision to save. In reality, it seems like the small fraction of the population with money to invest (mostly the rich and corporations) just chase returns by blowing asset bubbles instead of spending it. I'm not saying that lower interest rates do nothing (or conversely that higher interest rates would be sanguine) but it does seem that once interest rates get below a certain point, lowering them further doesn't do much because everyone with real money to invest has already gone elsewhere to investments that aren't strongly coupled to the interest rates that central banks can control in search of returns. Maybe this is stupid or crazy, I dunno. VVV Fical policy I guess? VVV MickeyFinn fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Apr 7, 2015 |
# ? Apr 7, 2015 19:25 |
|
How do you convince the people with money to spend it expanding their business in an environment with shrinking demand? The only time big players seem to touch their bank accounts is when they kick off another round of economic highlander that ends with a company being bought out and a pile of new people being kicked to the curb.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 19:39 |
|
It's pretty much why Japan is still in a stagnating economy. Despite all the QE and other central bank "cures", the economy didn't get better due to things such as japanese businesses not seeing a reason to do capex spending. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/us-japan-economy-tankan-idUSKBN0MS2X020150401
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:01 |
|
And unlike Canada, Japan has an actual diversified economy with export goods that aren't rocks and sticks.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:03 |
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Sask housing prices. I'm looking to buy a condo or something in the next year or two, so this is great news for me.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:05 |
|
QE and other tricks don't work effectively in running scared economies since it's the classic case of the cart before the horse. Government assumes through things like low interest rates businesses will start doing more capex and other purchases. In reality in places like in japan/Europe the whole weak domestic and international demand instead means the businesses don't start buying big ticket items.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:08 |
|
etalian posted:It's pretty much why Japan is still in a stagnating economy. Despite all the QE and other central bank "cures", the economy didn't get better due to things such as japanese businesses not seeing a reason to do capex spending. quote:Adding to the murky outlook, a separate private survey showed that expansion in Japanese manufacturing activity slowed in March as domestic orders shrank for the first time in about a year. Isn't this exact article what the Japan thread predicted a few months ago, that this form of Abenomics "QE-lite" would be mostly useless in Japan because people will just take the money and sit on it waiting for the inevitable tax rise that takes it back out of circulation?
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:19 |
|
QE is seductive since it provides a "free" way for the government to fix the economy. Much easier than trying to address structural problems in the economy or doing a Keynesian response to change the atmosphere of fear/uncertainty in the economy.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:25 |
|
http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/banking-city-land-mother-all-housing-booms/quote:
I'm actually very happy for the people that make out like bandits selling to these developers.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:43 |
|
etalian posted:QE is seductive since it provides a "free" way for the government to fix the economy. Likewise, jerking off is a "free" way to get laid. Then one day ypu wake and realize you've just been loving yourself.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:47 |
|
PK loving SUBBAN posted:Likewise, jerking off is a "free" way to get laid. Then one day ypu wake and realize you've just been loving yourself. That might just be the worst non-car related metaphor I've ever seen on this forum.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:50 |
|
Xoidanor posted:That might just be the worst non-car related metaphor I've ever seen on this forum. Thank you.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 20:58 |
|
Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.biv.com/article/2015/4/banking-city-land-mother-all-housing-booms/ Isn't this the realtor that someone here suspected was buying up all the houses herself and sitting on them? quote:Yu, who often deals with investors from China, said the majority of such buyers finance their Vancouver real estate through Canadian banks, even if they have enough cash for the purchase. This strikes me as really horrifying for some reason I can't put my finger on.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 21:15 |
|
Whatever. That's 4 million dollars for sitting on your fat loving rentier rear end son.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 21:25 |
|
Rime posted:Isn't this the realtor that someone here suspected was buying up all the houses herself and sitting on them? Wait does that mean we're giving mortgages to 3rd world countries citizens on the promise that they have money?
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 22:51 |
|
Coylter posted:Wait does that mean we're giving mortgages to 3rd world countries citizens on the promise that they have money? I don't think China ever counted as the "third world" since it was allied with the USSR, but yes, yes it does. How is a foreign national even taking out mortgages in Canada I don't even. This is loving stupid.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 22:56 |
|
Rime posted:This strikes me as really horrifying for some reason I can't put my finger on. It's pretty simple. Why pay cash upfront when the loan is basically free. Zuckerburg took out a mortgage on his new place, for example. People who are smart with money know it's better to have it working in places that aren't your house.Only dummies tie up loads of cash in houses. That is what the entire thread is about right? Saltin fucked around with this message at 22:59 on Apr 7, 2015 |
# ? Apr 7, 2015 22:57 |
|
Rime posted:I don't think China ever counted as the "third world" since it was allied with the USSR, but yes, yes it does. But these are not insured by the CHMC i assume?
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 22:58 |
|
quote:Yu, who often deals with investors from China, said the majority of such buyers finance their Vancouver real estate through Canadian banks, even if they have enough cash for the purchase. Serious question - what happens to the loan held by the banks if lets say the Chinese investors bail? Can the banks go after their assets to repay the loan? Will the bank be on the hook? Or will the taxpayer through bailouts?
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 23:01 |
|
Rime posted:Isn't this the realtor that someone here suspected was buying up all the houses herself and sitting on them? Yeah, she is the realtor selling 11 some properties along Oak Street. I guess it was option B, everyone wanting to sell in a block. Real estate, the one thing where volume costs a premium.
|
# ? Apr 7, 2015 23:02 |
|
Today a coworker effectively told me that I'd be a fool not to buy a house now(here in Alberta), because interest rates are so low, and it's such an important investment. I smiled and nodded.
|
# ? Apr 8, 2015 01:07 |
|
Rime posted:Say what you will about Hal_2005, that was actually an accurate account of how Vancouver got to today. Not sure about the rest of his massive post, but his rundown of Vancouver development and urban design has no real basis in reality. The City of Vancouver is well aware of how important industrial land is and has done a pretty good job of maintaining industrial land. Yes industrial lands in Yaletown were turned over to residential development in the 90s, but they were literally in the centre of the expanding downtown core and there's obviously no real business case for keeping log booms in the middle of False Creek. The next nearest light industrial areas have all been maintained and they're doing really well. I don't know maybe he's referencing some scaleback of industry in further out areas of Metro Van? I don't get what point he's trying to make disparaging Vancouver's road network. Vancouver transportation planning is highly regarded and it's a model for NA. The City proper has no freeway, and has the highest level of public transportation commuters in the west by a wide margin 20% vs 16% Calgary and 15% SF. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Apr 8, 2015 |
# ? Apr 8, 2015 01:56 |
|
You can't even park on the street anymore because of all the goddamn bike lanes! War on motorists!
|
# ? Apr 8, 2015 02:05 |
|
Rime posted:I don't think China ever counted as the "third world" since it was allied with the USSR, but yes, yes it does. This is an impressive level of ignorance. The sole raison d'etre of the Chinese army for the last 40 years has been to fight a probably nuclear war with the USSR, not to mention actually fighting the USSR in proxy wars all over the world. Anyone can get a mortgage with 30% down (the norm in most of the world outside the Anglosphere).
|
# ? Apr 8, 2015 03:39 |
|
|
# ? May 27, 2024 04:13 |
|
Throatwarbler posted:This is an impressive level of ignorance. The sole raison d'etre of the Chinese army for the last 40 years has been to fight a probably nuclear war with the USSR, not to mention actually fighting the USSR in proxy wars all over the world. I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but if not you should probably do a cursory fact check before tossing out stupidity like that. China was aligned with the Soviet Union, it is considered Second World in the context of those terms. The USSR not having existed for twenty-five years is the only reason I'm assuming you made a bad joke.
|
# ? Apr 8, 2015 04:02 |