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JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

An Angry Bug posted:

Please don't bring more people into this deranged world. There are already way more than the planet can support.
lol

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Seldom Posts
Jul 4, 2010

Grimey Drawer

Isentropy posted:

Where can I watch the Nova Scotian housing market crumble in real time? Please note that the only well paying jobs in Halifax are in some way government related (military contractors, the military, or healthcare/education).

e: and yes, I said Halifax, because the only economy outside of Halifax in Nova Scotia is one-horse company towns like Waterville and New Glasgow

Job markets like this usually lead to less volatile housing markets. The Maritimes as a whole generally don't peak and valley the way other parts of the country do, they mostly truck along at a steady low.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Seldom Posts posted:

Job markets like this usually lead to less volatile housing markets. The Maritimes as a whole generally don't peak and valley the way other parts of the country do, they mostly truck along at a steady low.

To put the lie to this, did not home prices spike when Halifax won the shipbuilding contract? And hasn't that euphoria already tapering off when it occured to everyone that it wasn't going to result in the rebirth of industry in Halifax?

Government work might be steady, but house prices have been divorced from the job market for at least a decade now.

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

An Angry Bug posted:

Please don't bring more people into this deranged world. There are already way more than the planet can support.

If you're even the slightest bit environmentally conscious then having a child is probably the single worst thing you can do re: environmental impact on the planet unless you're in charge of a large oil tanker or something of similar scale. A lifetime of wastefulness and the sins of not recycling wouldn't outweigh having a child.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Rime posted:

You know, as much as we poo poo on the elders in here, young people are just as retarded.

Exhibit 1: Twenty-four, 6 year BA in psych and creative writing, headed to grad school for screenwriting. End result: entering the work force at 26/28 with no money and zero work experience.

Exhibit 2: Same age, same degree, headed to grad school for a master in arts-psych. No real work experience.

Both these people are still living off their parents dime for rent and tuition rather than student loans.

:downs:

Sounds like they're plenty smart. Enjoying their twenties at no cost and no debt.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

quote:


Canada’s mortgage wars hit new low as fixed rate dips to 1.49% http://natpo.st/1CmcSB2 via @financialpost

https://twitter.com/DustyWallet/status/586215747061317632

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

mastershakeman posted:

Sounds like they're plenty smart. Enjoying their twenties at no cost and no debt.

Hitting thirty after being insulated from reality your entire life and trying to find a job with a useless degree and "20 hours of VtM Larping weekly" as your resume doesn't seem very smart in this economy? Their middle-class parents aren't rich enough to keep the gravy train rolling past graduation, rather in both cases it's just burning the inheritance. :shrug:

The idea of "enjoying your twenties" like that is farcical in our new reality, unless a shotgun is your retirement plan.

Rime fucked around with this message at 18:50 on Apr 9, 2015

Seldom Posts
Jul 4, 2010

Grimey Drawer

ocrumsprug posted:

To put the lie to this, did not home prices spike when Halifax won the shipbuilding contract? And hasn't that euphoria already tapering off when it occured to everyone that it wasn't going to result in the rebirth of industry in Halifax?

Government work might be steady, but house prices have been divorced from the job market for at least a decade now.

Thanks for reminding me why I shouldn't pay attention to this thread.

Here are actual figures: http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64267/64267_2014_B02.pdf

Look at fig. 5. Average home price in halifax has increased by about $65k in the last 8 years. between 2011 and 2013 it went up about $12k.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64363/64363_2014_B02.pdf?fr=1428601917877

Look at page 14. Avg. house prices in vancouver went up just under $400k between 2011 and 2013.

Do you still think I am lying when I say that the Halifax market is more stable?

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Rime posted:

Hitting thirty after being insulated from reality your entire life and trying to find a job with a useless degree and "20 hours of VtM Larping weekly" as your resume doesn't seem very smart in this economy? Their middle-class parents aren't rich enough to keep the gravy train rolling past graduation, rather in both cases it's just burning the inheritance. :shrug:

The idea of "enjoying your twenties" like that is farcical in our new reality, unless a shotgun is your retirement plan.

Considering that their alternative probably was spending their 20's stuck in short-term, low-wage, temp-work I don't think it's quite fair to blame them for making that choice. They've chosen the path that fucks them in the future rather then today. :shrug:

Also, no need to worry about retirement when you're heading straight for lung cancer and/or liver failure after 10 years of 24/7 partying. :2bong:

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Seldom Posts posted:

Thanks for reminding me why I shouldn't pay attention to this thread.

Here are actual figures: http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64267/64267_2014_B02.pdf

Look at fig. 5. Average home price in halifax has increased by about $65k in the last 8 years. between 2011 and 2013 it went up about $12k.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64363/64363_2014_B02.pdf?fr=1428601917877

Look at page 14. Avg. house prices in vancouver went up just under $400k between 2011 and 2013.

Do you still think I am lying when I say that the Halifax market is more stable?

Sorry, I wasn't intending to call you a liar. My understanding was that when the ship building contract went through, it had spiked prices.

I guess the better question is why BC is crazy everywhere? The response to the Site C dam project getting green lit was the immediate speculation on houses in that part of the province. (Houses in Fort St. John cost about the same as Halifax.)

Seldom Posts
Jul 4, 2010

Grimey Drawer

ocrumsprug posted:

Sorry, I wasn't intending to call you a liar. My understanding was that when the ship building contract went through, it had spiked prices.

I guess the better question is why BC is crazy everywhere? The response to the Site C dam project getting green lit was the immediate speculation on houses in that part of the province. (Houses in Fort St. John cost about the same as Halifax.)

it's cool.

My understanding is that home sales spiked a bit around the time of the shipbuilding announcement, but there was no real spike in prices and sales then cooled off again.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Rime posted:

Hitting thirty after being insulated from reality your entire life and trying to find a job with a useless degree and "20 hours of VtM Larping weekly" as your resume doesn't seem very smart in this economy? Their middle-class parents aren't rich enough to keep the gravy train rolling past graduation, rather in both cases it's just burning the inheritance. :shrug:

The idea of "enjoying your twenties" like that is farcical in our new reality, unless a shotgun is your retirement plan.

Yeah, I saw a bunch of people 10-30 years older than me go through exact that. "Enjoy your 20's!" Perpetual student on their parent's dime or a mix of student loans, parents money, and scholarships. Finally they hit their 30's and realize they know nothing but school and have no skills to leave it, so just stay at school so long as the money is there. If their parent's money runs out they just exist on student loans and weird grants, anything but ever go out into the real world because they are absolutely incapable of it. Absolute pros at university, learning, test writing, thesis writing, and finding every possible scrap of education money they can squeeze from the system. It's a nice life if you've got the funding, but their worlds pretty quickly crumble once the inheritance they were depending on gets gambled away, or their parents cut them off.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

quote:


As Toronto condos go, a cramped unit on the 52nd floor of a newly built downtown tower is as good a place as any to pick apart one of the most oft-repeated real estate stats in Canada’s largest city: the ultra-tight vacancy rate of little more than one per cent. You hear it all the time, on the lips of every condo buyer and regurgitated in real estate reports. It’s one of the reasons a growing number of developers say they’re shifting gears from building condos to building rentals. But like all statistics emanating from Canada’s clubby real estate industry, this one should be taken with a grain of salt—especially since investors are a huge source of demand driving frothy condo markets here and across the country.

Rachelle Berube, a property manager who oversees several hundred rental properties in Toronto, is showing me the unit—located in a building at 12 York St. marketed as the“Ice Condos”—which she’d tried for weeks to rent out on behalf of the condo’s owner. We’d talked a few days earlier about Toronto’s rental market and how the official vacancy statistics don’t jibe with what she’s seeing. And so Berube invited me up to the unit to see things first-hand. While the view out the window was impressive, it was the scene in the hallways that truly surprised. On the door to almost every unit on the floor in this sold-out building, and multiple floors below, notices were posted by work crews to say they’d entered the units to do repairs—notices that hadn’t been touched in days or weeks. These were empty condos. A few are up for resale, most are for rent. OnRealtor.ca, the official site for real estate agent listings, there were more than 30 units in the building listed for rent the other day. On Kijiji.ca, an online classifieds site, another 40 or so were listed. Sure, there’s some overlap, but Berube has seen the same situation across the city. Empty rental units are piling up everywhere.

There are a couple of things you should know about Berube before we go on. First, she has a heightened awareness for numerical balderdash. Second, she’s not afraid to kick up dirt. For example, a few years ago as she sifted through documents from a company called League Assets Corp., which operated one of Canada’s largest private real estate investment trusts, red flags went up at the company’s promise to deliver double-digit annual returns to investors. She dug deeper and on her blog accused the company of operating a Ponzi scheme. League filed a $2.6-million defamation suit against her in May 2013. That October it filed for bankruptcy protection, leaving thousands of investors facing more than $300 million in losses.

Berube says she has the same sense of “cognitive dissonance” when analyzing condo vacancy stats as she did early on looking at League’s financials. “There’s something seriously wrong with these numbers,” she says.

What are those numbers? According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the federal agency that insures lenders against mortgage losses while simultaneously serving as one of the main sources of real estate data in the country, the vacancy rate for condo rentals is just 1.3 per cent—about as close to zero as you can get.

As Berube points out, several things don’t make sense. After 20 years in the business she’s seen periods of ultra-tight vacancy rates during which scores of applicants would respond to listings. Nothing like that is happening now. A tight rental market should also lead to higher rents, but CMHC’s own rental market report from the fall of 2014 noted that rent collected from condo tenants declined 1.5 per cent from the previous year. She’s seen the same trend with her own clients, with rental units regularly fetching the same or less than they did five years ago. (In the end Berube rented that downtown unit after slashing the rent 10 per cent, to $1,500.) There’s also the fact a roughly one per cent vacancy rate is just an astonishingly, almost unbelievably low number. New York City, arguably the most brutal place to try to find a place to rent anywhere in the world, has a rental vacancy rate of 3.45 per cent. For higher-end units, it’s 7.3 per cent. Sorry, but Toronto isn’t New York, as much as people in Toronto like to think it is.

Not surprisingly the vacancy-rate calculation on condos is something of a black box. It’s not, as you might think, a measure of the percentage of condos meant to be rented that are currently sitting empty. A condominium-owners survey by CMHC last fall makes that clear—it showed percentage of investment condos sitting vacant at 5.5 per cent for units purchased more than six years ago, and up to 10.1 per cent for those bought in the last three years. Instead the vacancy rate reflects empty units as a share of the whole condo market, including those units occupied by their owners. “It seems to be a Franken-number,” says Berube. “It means absolutely nothing and it’s encouraging people to buy condos thinking they’ll be easy to rent.”

There’s no question for a lot of people in Toronto looking to rent, it’s hard to find a decent place at an affordable price. And yet there’s glaring evidence of a huge stock of condo rental units sitting empty. Why the disconnect? Simple. Renters live in the real world of cash—the rent they pay is tethered to their paycheques. But condo investors who’ve been buying properties to rent exist in debt lalaland, leveraging up to buy properties at prices that in no way reflect the incomes of the people they hope to rent to.

Once that reality sets in—that other than being a speculative bet on rising prices, condos as investments are money losers—it’s only a question of how many will run for the exits.




http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/the-vacant-truth-about-rental-condos/

Wow gently caress the cmhc.

I had no idea Rachelle was hit with a shut up lawsuit. Good to see she was vindicated. I've been following her comments on real estate blogs for years.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
All you smug 'lol how's your gold plated degree working out for you now' shits should really factor in the malaise of underemployment as a symptom of Canada's bullshit under diversified economy. I met several people in London who managed to build successful high paying careers out of liberal arts degrees. An Oxbridge degree in polysci, philosophy and economics would get you in to an ibanking job paying 6 figures no problem. I have multiple acquaintances who managed to do the same in NYC.

There are numerous studies that confirm a university degree is still a valuable commodity regardless of what libertarian hero Peter Thiel tells you.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

ocrumsprug posted:

Sorry, I wasn't intending to call you a liar. My understanding was that when the ship building contract went through, it had spiked prices.

I guess the better question is why BC is crazy everywhere? The response to the Site C dam project getting green lit was the immediate speculation on houses in that part of the province. (Houses in Fort St. John cost about the same as Halifax.)

BC has a deeply ingrained hosed up culture where a generation or more of people have seen the #1 way to get rich is property speculation. In fact it's the only way to get rich because there sure as hell aren't careers here and why work when you can speculate? Everyone measures their jobs/income by how much house they can buy. You work in BC only to qualify for a mortgage, your career is equity building. People know the big money is always getting in on the ground floor, so everyone rushes in to buy anywhere there is a possibility of becoming a boom town. So some place announces an approved LNG terminal, or a mine, or what ever, and people go nuts buying way before anything happens because they want to get in on that ground floor. They want to buy those decaying poo poo shacks now for 100k because once the big industry takes off it will be worth 500k, or command insane rents. That's of course if the approved or even rumoured plan ever gets off the ground.

It ends up being like stocks a bit, people get a "hot tip" and go buying crazy, and with houses you're always buying on margin. Nothing wrong with an economy based entirely around people buying massive investments on margin.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

All you smug 'lol how's your gold plated degree working out for you now' shits should really factor in the malaise of underemployment as a symptom of Canada's bullshit under diversified economy. I met several people in London who managed to build successful high paying careers out of liberal arts degrees. An Oxbridge degree in polysci, philosophy and economics would get you in to an ibanking job paying 6 figures no problem. I have multiple acquaintances who managed to do the same in NYC.

There are numerous studies that confirm a university degree is still a valuable commodity regardless of what libertarian hero Peter Thiel tells you.

Yeah, that's fine for the very precise combinations of {London, Oxbridge, liberal arts} or {NYC, Columbia, liberal arts}.

Pray tell, how does the SFU poetry grad living in the lower mainland perform the same career jujitsu?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Lexicon posted:

Yeah, that's fine for the very precise combinations of {London, Oxbridge, liberal arts} or {NYC, Columbia, liberal arts}.

Pray tell, how does the SFU poetry grad living in the lower mainland perform the same career jujitsu?

A good first step is to get the gently caress out of Canada.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
a BA in Psychology and no work experience doesn't put you very high on the "skilled immigration" lists that most countries require to get a job there. :shrug:

I'm not talking about people who finished their degrees fast and did a shitton of extra-curricular networking and projects to build a name for themselves in the field, I'm talking about idiots that spend half a decade coasting and doing the minimum required to graduate before they die during their nightly video game marathon.

Rime fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Apr 9, 2015

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Seriously what the gently caress are y'all motherfuckers smoking if you think a university education is a waste of time in terms of social mobility? gently caress, a basic requirement for many T1 visa occupations is a loving university degree, never mind grad school.

I sympathize with the plight of americans who are several hundred thousand dollars in debt but if you all are going to draw the same parallel in terms of debt servitude, you're a disingenuous douche bag.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Rime posted:

a BA in Psychology and no work experience doesn't put you very high on the "skilled immigration" lists that most countries require to get a job there. :shrug:

Yeah I don't know how the gently caress psychology gets so many students.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
It's the degree that looks "serious" while requiring the least amount of work, and you can pretend to be smarter because you have a degree in "psychology". When you're too dumb to even hammer out a BA in History, you fall back on it (my example 2 from above).

The problem isn't that degrees are inherently worthless, it's that a large percentage of the people obtaining them are. We're subsidizing these chucklefucks so that they can be a drain on the system for the rest of their lives.

Rime fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Apr 9, 2015

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Yeah I don't know how the gently caress psychology gets so many students.

I'm sure I'll offend someone here, but whatever:

Psychology, at least as manifested as an undergraduate offering, isn't a real field. It's a series of quite interesting pieces of trivia, strung together over 4+ years, packaged up as a product so idiots can proclaim themselves university graduates. There aren't many fields where you can walk into an upper level course sitting and perfectly comprehend absolutely everything that's being said. Psychology is such a field.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Cultural Imperial posted:

A good first step is to get the gently caress out of Canada.


Lexicon posted:

SFU poetry grad

Good luck with that.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Cultural Imperial posted:

Yeah I don't know how the gently caress psychology gets so many students.

It works for elementary teachers, and generalized government employees that require a degree to 'check the box' for applicants.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
If Margaret Atwood can garner international renown, an SFU poet should have no problem. He/she isn't trying hard enough.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

jm20 posted:

It works for elementary teachers, and generalized government employees that require a degree to 'check the box' for applicants.

Lot of military officers with psychology degrees too! It really is the check-box degree. Sometimes I think of getting one just so I can check the box and consider my self educated, then go back to my $17 an hour no-benefits job.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

jm20 posted:

It works for elementary teachers, and generalized government employees that require a degree to 'check the box' for applicants.

Yeah, but if you're just in it for a "check the box" thing, why not study something you're somewhat interested in? Are there really that many people who are passionate about psychology when compared with history or English literature?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
One of my favorite BBC radio DJs is a stoner from Nelson. This probes there's hope for all Canadians.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

You can't get the gently caress out of Canada unless you meet one of these three criteria.

1) You have an online business where you churn out content remotely from any place you desire and make American profits from it.

Congrats. Now you can double your money by moving to Prague, Buenos Aires, Bangkok or any other metropolitan centre vastly superior to Toronto for 1/4 of the living costs. In fact you could basically live in a new country every month if you wanted to.


2) You have a high level degree in Engineering, Biotech, IT and other STEM fields. Or you have many 3 letter acronyms after your name. Sprinkle in a minimum of 5-8 years work experience and a good LinkedIn profile.

Congrats, now you are in the top percentiles of humanity by your qualifications alone. You're no longer competing with the droves of unemployed masses competing for the same job who have cultural and language advantage on you.

3) Come from a wealthy family... Self explanatory.

Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)
I wish my parents had brought me up to be the kind of person who would go to Def Con instead of a lawyer.

Or, like, literally anything else.

Reince Penis
Nov 15, 2007

by R. Guyovich

An Angry Bug posted:

Please don't bring more people into this deranged world. There are already way more than the planet can support.

That's just what people say to justify not having kids it isn't actually true. Using current farm tech this planet can support ~12 billion people.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
So what you guys are saying is, waah life sucks, check your privilege, I don't want to go to university, much less anything else that might remotely improve my chances at social mobility, 420 smoke NDP every day

ChairMaster
Aug 22, 2009

by R. Guyovich

PT6A posted:

Yeah, but if you're just in it for a "check the box" thing, why not study something you're somewhat interested in? Are there really that many people who are passionate about psychology when compared with history or English literature?

Most people think that if they learn psychology they can learn the fundamental reason why people do the things they do and can manipulate the world to their own desires and be way smarter than everyone else because they know your reasons for doing poo poo better than you do and all that garbage. It's basically the Always Sunny episode "Mac is a serial killer" except in real life.

ChairMaster
Aug 22, 2009

by R. Guyovich

Cultural Imperial posted:

So what you guys are saying is, waah life sucks, check your privilege, I don't want to go to university, much less anything else that might remotely improve my chances at social mobility, 420 smoke NDP every day

That piece of paper they give you will probably be worthless by the time you graduate and then you'll have wasted four or six or eight years learning about some subject that got replaced by robots anyways.

And even if everybody decided to learn about robot construction and repair that'd also be useless because then if everybody knows how to do something then why pay anyone a decent salary to do it?

ChairMaster fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Apr 9, 2015

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

I can buy that explanation. A decade of lovely police procedurals has made psychology extremely romanticised.

Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)
Discussion of STEM and worthless basket weavers in a Canada thread? I don't even know if this thing works anymore, but :krakken:

Coylter
Aug 3, 2009
Go into crowd control technology and you'll have plenty of opportunities in the years to come!

sat on my keys!
Oct 2, 2014

PT6A posted:

Yeah, but if you're just in it for a "check the box" thing, why not study something you're somewhat interested in? Are there really that many people who are passionate about psychology when compared with history or English literature?

Some portion of them also believe that getting a bachelor's in psych will allow them to understand their own badbrains from the inside.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Unironically, how do you think Austria has a strong manufacturing based economy?

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Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

Cultural Imperial posted:

Unironically, how do you think Austria has a strong manufacturing based economy?

Austrian economics.

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