|
I should probably set better investment exit points prior to investing. Did make ~30% on twi tho, ty arkane! Also a relatively smaller ~5% on SCHW before exiting because I realized it was probably not a well thought out investment. Going to try and make at least a basic thesis/expected exit point for next set of investments. Interesting though!
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2015 20:32
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 21, 2024 10:31 |
|
|
I got into oil by buying BP during one of their more recent dips instead. Can't really kick myself too much because I'm still up a fair bit, but hindsight + opportunity cost is a bitch. Gonna at least stick around to see if they'll copycat Shell and make an acquisition or two while things are cheap.
|
|
#
?
Apr 9, 2015 22:52
|
|
|
I think you guys might be cutting winners loose a bit quick. Although its hard to argue with a fast 25%. Thanks for doing the good fundamental analysis on this one arkane, I appreciate it. I don't think its actually much harder to do than the complex tea-leaf-reading of technical analysis/chartistry, and can actually produce real alpha (at least if you're smart). I'm a bit too lazy to spend a lot of time reading balance sheets and listening to calls for gotchas, but being a critic is always fun (wish I hadn't been too stubborn to admit you were right on CSIQ and buy in!)
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 00:29
|
|
|
Baddog posted:I think you guys might be cutting winners loose a bit quick. Although its hard to argue with a fast 25%. Yeah I totally agree with this -- I need to think this through more. Disposition effect is a bitch. If anyone has food resources on dealing w behavioral finance biases would love to see them. I have ideas but haven't implemented them well.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 00:34
|
|
|
Fundamental analysis is actually really difficult and time consuming to produce good, insightful analysis. I've never seen a single post here that actually had some real insightful fundamental analysis, but I don't expect to see that either. You can still be right with weak analysis, and it's better to be lucky than have great analysis that ends up being wrong.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 00:45
|
|
|
mike- posted:I've never seen a single post here that actually had some real insightful fundamental analysis, but I don't expect to see that either. Feel free to start! Or you can keep posting passive aggressive snipes.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 01:37
|
|
|
Arkane posted:Feel free to start! I can't post anything related to company's I work on. Sorry you are upset that I've called out your shoddy analysis. Like I said, you can be right with shoddy analysis, but don't confuse that with actual fundamental analysis. Also, poking at analysis (especially the superficial, juvenile analysis often posted here) is probably the most important thing to do when evaluating a potential investment. Everyone who is actually putting money into ideas they have seen here should be doing it. mike- fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Apr 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 01:51
|
|
|
mike- posted:I can't post anything related to company's I work on. Then what can you post? How is his analysis shoddy, you haven't even managed to get that much out. Is Arkane's analysis also related to things you work on?
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 02:14
|
|
|
Arkane is a good, strong man.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 02:19
|
|
|
rizzo1001 posted:Then what can you post? How is his analysis shoddy, you haven't even managed to get that much out. Is Arkane's analysis also related to things you work on? rizzo1001 posted:Then what can you post? How is his analysis shoddy, you haven't even managed to get that much out. Is Arkane's analysis also related to things you work on? Pick any post from the last few months that you think is good analysis, whether from arkane or anyone else, and I will tell you why it is shoddy and superficial, and most certainly not representative of good fundamental analysis.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 02:20
|
|
|
mike- posted:Pick any post from the last few months that you think is good analysis, whether from arkane or anyone else, and I will tell you why it is shoddy and superficial, and most certainly not representative of good fundamental analysis. Sure, Arkane's post on Mar 20, I guess that's what we're talking about right? However, I'd be more interested in a 'good' analysis on either CMP, a stock I've owned for few years, boring salt producer in Kansas or maybe an analysis on a US regulated electric utility.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 02:29
|
|
|
mike- posted:Pick any post from the last few months that you think is good analysis, whether from arkane or anyone else, and I will tell you why it is shoddy and superficial, and most certainly not representative of good fundamental analysis.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 02:45
|
|
|
mike- posted:Peanut butter and jelly . Why don't you post some of your expert contrarian analysis then? Fuckers like you chime in from time to time to make sure this place is reduced to nothing more than a bunch of crabs in a barrel and then the people with the balls big enough to actually post ideas are driven away. You make the forum a better place, thanks.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 02:51
|
|
|
So do you think analysts do good fundamental analysis? Serious q: how are they so off base so often?
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 03:01
|
|
|
I'm assuming you are referring to this post, if not let me know which post you meant.Arkane posted:I've taken some fairly good-sized positions in a couple of oil servicing companies over the past couple of weeks....HOS and TDW. Got 2000 HOS @ average price of 18.77 and 3000 TDW @ average price of 21.83. I'm above water on HOS and under water on TDW right now. There actually really isn't much fundamental analysis in this post, actually. The parts related to fundamental analysis are really referring to how both of these companies trade relative to book value. However, there is no discussion whatsoever about the drivers of a book value multiple (There could be perfectly reasonable explanations for a company trading below book value), or any comparison to other company's that operate in the space P/BV. There isn't any discussion regarding earnings or revenue multiples, or really any sort of financial analysis other than the companys are trading at a lower multiples of book value than they have before. Theres no discussion about historical or projected operating performance, other than "profitable for years". So? at what margins? for how long? have margins been expanding or contracting? WHY? No discussion about transactions in the space and what multiples the transactions are at. There isn't anything wrong with the narrative stuff, but you have to understand that taking this post on its own the primary support for the investment is that they are trading at a lower P/BV than they have before (therefore automatically undervalued?), and that if oil rises the the stock could double. And it can't go lower because the assets are too valuable (without actually discussing why this is true). There could be perfectly reasonable explanations for this, but it isn't actually examined in the post. This is actually a great example of pretty superficial analysis. Nothing is actually examined in any sort of depth, the company's aren't compared to any other operators in the space to give a sense of what multiples in sector look like at that time. Perhaps Arkane did a lot of research that he didn't post here, I have no idea. But that doesn't make what he posted an example of good fundamental analysis, that's laughable. I've said it multiple times, I don't expect anyone to post detailed fundamental analysis in this thread, it isn't really the place for it. I'm not expecting someone to post a dcf and market approach analysis with detailed support for the assumptions they are making, this thread isn't really for that. What I said was to not mistake shoddy, simplistic analysis for sound fundamental analysis, and that the idea that producing good sound fundamental analysis isn't much harder than technical analysis, because it simply isn't true. Did this stock pick turn out to be right? It certainly seems that a lot of people made money off it. Like I said, you can make money off superficial, shoddy analysis. Hell, it's certainly a lot better to be in that position than to have sound, detailed analysis that ends up losing you money. But making money off superficial analysis doesn't turn it into sound fundamental analysis. semicolonsrock posted:So do you think analysts do good fundamental analysis? Serious q: how are they so off base so often? I think I produce sound and well supported fundamental analysis. There are plenty of other analysts who I believe do the same. On the other hand, there are plenty of analysts who produce shoddy work. For your second question, predicting the stock market is hard. You can spend hundreds of hours working on a valuation and have a well supported argument that turns out to be wrong. You can blindly pick stocks out of a hat and win big. mike- fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Apr 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 03:18
|
|
|
Arkane just know that I love you. You made me a good deal of money just in the first quarter alone.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 03:54
|
|
|
mike- posted:Sorry you are upset that I've called out your shoddy analysis. I wasn't upset by your post bro. I called you out for being a passive aggressive troll, which you are. I even read your contributions in other threads before hitting submit to make sure I didn't label you unfairly (nope, I read you perfectly). Seems like you got some personal stuff you have to work through, not much of a people person. You are perfectly fine to say that I could be getting lucky; it takes a large sample size to separate luck from skill, and I do not profess to be an expert, far from it. Trying to learn more every day. I don't think any of my analysis has been shoddy, in fact the opposite if we want to be results oriented. By the same token I am open to it being torn apart, which is why I post in this thread in the first place. Eventually something that I post will be a bad investment because of something that I have wrong. But to be precise: the investments I have posted in this thread (and I post nearly everything) have generated a return for myself of 140% in 2014 and 141% year-to-date in 2015. Feel free to compound those two numbers. (Note: I was 2x levered for most of 2014 and early 2015) I've painstakingly re-created your returns, and thus far you're at 0%. Not losing anybody any money, but like most professionals, you're badly lagging the S&P. I'll PM you some book recommendations to help you improve.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 04:57
|
|
|
Arkane posted:I wasn't upset by your post bro. I called you out for being a passive aggressive troll, which you are. I even read your contributions in other threads before hitting submit to make sure I didn't label you unfairly (nope, I read you perfectly). Seems like you got some personal stuff you have to work through, not much of a people person. You are pretty weird and also if you are judging the soundness of your analysis by the results (rather than how the argument presented in your analysis is actually supported) you will probably never understand why I think all the fundamental analysis you post is superficial and shoddy.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 05:11
|
|
|
Mike makes a couple of good points, but is using the wrong words. Essentially, Mike is pointing out that Arkane's contributions, while potentially correct, are not as rigorous as what Mike would normally see on a professional level. Arkane did not go into as much detail as would be expected from something you might pay a bunch of money for (and professional-level fundamentals analysis isn't free). That's fair. What's unfair is calling what Arkane's doing "shoddy." Arkane's explanations of his thinking behind certain stock plays is far more thorough than the norm for the thread, and unless I've forgotten something significant, it's the most thorough of any analysis in the thread. So evaluated in terms of "are these good posts?" it's an unequivocal "yes," and I'm grateful for them. But a fair reading of what Mike is posting, leaving aside the bad words... yeah, he's right. Detailed, rigorous professional reports, these posts are not. I doubt Arkane would have claimed otherwise. Also: if Mike really does write fundamental analysis on a professional level, it's understandable that he can't discuss stocks on a public forum in any detail, because any details he posts could be construed as him giving away his company's intellectual property for free. Mike, you should probably accept that if you are not in a position to post your own work here, you're going to come off as an unreliable and highly dubious critic to some folks. Your claim to credentials essentially amounts to a hot canadian girlfriend. You have no bona fides here, dude, so you can't throw your weight around. Unless you can back up your claims to a higher standard with actual examples of a higher standard, you're pissing in the wind.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 05:17
|
|
|
This thread may largely be filled with lovely advice, but if someone is willing to take the time to read 10-Qs and listen to conference calls and then distill their thoughts into this thread they are greatly welcomed. That alone is easily more than 95% of investors do. Maybe Arkane is wrong (and I guarantee you he will hit a losing streak), but he is willing to share his thoughts. You seem to be hiding behind the fact that someone has to pay you to do what Arkane does for free.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 05:28
|
|
|
I don't disagree that arkanes posts are the most thorough of anyone who posts their stock picks in this thread, I was replying to a poster saying it was good fundamental analysis, when it isn't. Just because someone posts a multiple or two doesn't make the argument sound or compelling. It doesn't really say anything, actually. Is shoddy a harsh word? Maybe if you consider the work relative to what is typically posted in this thread, but I'm just examining it for what it is. I already said I'm not expecting to read detailed analyses here, I was responding to someone's comment about the analysis, and explaining a couple reasons why I think it is superficial.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 05:32
|
|
|
Why are people not posting Goldman level research notes on the ten dollar comedy forum. I don't get it.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 05:49
|
|
|
Baddog posted:I think you guys might be cutting winners loose a bit quick. Although its hard to argue with a fast 25%. Guilty. I find the psychology of stock trading difficult, more so in sectors I don't understand. And I am to cheap/small time to pay for extra features at the brokerage.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 06:07
|
|
|
I agree with both of you, although mike is just being inflammatory with his choice of phrasing. But Arkane wins more often than the people on my Facebook telling me Manchester United are specials so as far as I'm concerned SHUT UP AND TAKE MY MONEY aka Arkane owns.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 06:10
|
|
|
Garfu posted:Also I got a tip about BPT, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust . Dividends at 14%. Bought in at 59.19 and it's up to 64.04 at the moment. The guy I spoke to was predicting a return to 80 by the end of the summer. Arkane probably knows a little more about it than I do though, as it's oil related. I don't want to get too deep in the weeds on royalty trusts, but BPT just cut their most recent payment by over 50%, so they aren't actually yielding 14%.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 06:19
|
|
|
Technical analysts seem like they spend days poring/wanking over charts trying to divine some pattern. While if you read through all the publicly available reports and listen to the conference calls with a critical mind, and you're smarter than the average analyst (which isn't really a very high bar, sorry mike), then I think you can generate some definite alpha. And it shouldn't really take much longer to do that than to try to guess which chart pattern is going to beat the current day-trader-meta or whatever. Which again, my point was that people spend an inordinate amount of time and effort trying to do. And sorry man, I also think that buying a fundamental analysis report from some random (probably inexperienced/junior) guy who is likely just filling in numbers in a boilerplate template and then whipping out some half-assed conjecture and summarizing with a wild guess at a price target, with no personal skin in the game, is also a waste of time.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 09:28
|
|
|
Hi guys, got a quick question. Has anyone had trouble in actually finding stocks from a certain company for purchase (as in people not wanting to let go of their shares)? Is this even a thing?
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 09:55
|
|
|
mike- posted:I can't post anything related to company's I work on. mike- posted:or any comparison to other company's that operate in the space P/BV mike- posted:the company's aren't compared to any other operators in the space I thought this was phoneposting the first time, but how can a Serious Fundamental Analyst not pluralize the word "company" correctly? Casting my vote for lovely troll.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 13:08
|
|
|
Apollo_Creed posted:I don't want to get too deep in the weeds on royalty trusts, but BPT just cut their most recent payment by over 50%, so they aren't actually yielding 14%. I'm definitely new here but when I saw this: Dividend Yield 13.65% Ex-Date 4/14/2015 I thought it meant they are yielding 14%... It was 19% last time so what you said still holds true, they cut it. I'm still probably wrong as I didn't even start investing until I saw the story about the 92 year old guy with $8 million, and then got motivated from Arkane's posts. Also I'm an analyst professionally so I'm enjoying the past couple pages.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 14:05
|
|
|
mike- posted:I don't disagree that arkanes posts are the most thorough of anyone who posts their stock picks in this thread, I was replying to a poster saying it was good fundamental analysis, when it isn't. Just because someone posts a multiple or two doesn't make the argument sound or compelling. It doesn't really say anything, actually. Thanks for replying with something other than 'this sucks blarg'. I think that's all people here want. Your posts are weak as hell, but like you said you can still be right with weak posts, its just lame and isn't constructive.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 14:40
|
|
|
I'm sure there are plenty of other grammatical errors in my posts, it's the result of posting from a phone, weird autocorrect stuff, and simply bad grammar. I'm also not trying to sell reports or anything like that (where did this even come from?). Look, you can all put your money wherever you want, and I hope whatever you do makes you money. I would hope you critically examine any analysis you read, whether it's from some random dude on a forum or something you paid a ton of money for. All these weird little jabs at me still doesn't turn crappy analysis into a sound, well supported argument.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 14:42
|
|
|
mike- posted:All these weird little jabs at me still doesn't turn crappy analysis into a sound, well supported argument.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 14:54
|
|
|
I'd say coal guy is a rung above honestly. At least he made an opinion, as crazy as it seemed.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 14:57
|
|
|
DNova posted:I'd say coal guy is a rung above honestly. At least he made an opinion, as crazy as it seemed. Don't forget about RG, the bankruptcy sapphire stuff was fascinating. Really was hoping to get a trial update...
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 15:01
|
|
|
TOO SCSI FOR MY CAT posted:The only thing that really matters in this thread when it comes to recommendations is how much money they generate. Arkane's have done well. You've not posted any, which puts you only one rung above the "coal coal coal" guy. If you want to judge an investment by a posters past results rather than the soundness of the argument presented, go ahead. I think that's an incredibly dangerous game, but it's your money. I think I've said all I need to about this. I still think it's weird that everyone's panties are in a bunch because I criticized the characterization of the analysis posted here (and especially that the response was centered around me not posting stock picks, rather than the criticism I raised about arkanes and others posts) but there isn't anything I can do about that.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 15:08
|
|
|
I have a beginner question. I got a Robinhood account so I am making some small trades (less than $100 in my account total) just to play around and get my feet wet as I do more research and learn about stock trading. One thing I see is that I need to avoid being labeled a pattern-day trader. Is my understanding correct that for the rolling-basis day trade limit, a trade only counts towards that limit if it was opened and closed in the same business day? So if I bought 50 different stocks today, as long as I held them overnight I could sell off all 50 different stocks tomorrow and it would not count towards the rolling-basis day trade limit since I held them overnight? I don't even know if I am using the correct terms. Hope this makes sense... D-Pad fucked around with this message at 15:20 on Apr 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 15:17
|
|
|
TOO SCSI FOR MY CAT posted:Hopped on the HOS train at 19.24, and TDW at 20.82. D-Pad posted:I have a beginner question. I got a Robinhood account so I am making some small trades (less than $100 in my account total) just to play around and get my feet wet as I do more research and learn about stock trading. One thing I see is that I need to avoid being labeled a pattern-day trader.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 15:21
|
|
|
Arkane's posts are not rigorous fundamental analyses; he doesn't offer good ideas about exit and entry prices, he doesn't try to account for why certain stocks are priced at their current prices as a discrepancy from his own personal valuations, and they aren't the kind of thing that you would pay someone to produce. Also I think Arkane would agree with all these points. If you are in the business of doing something professionally, and you see others doing something in the same space to a lower level of rigor it's easy to dismiss it as "crappy"; for example there's a lot of crappy software that people talk about on the internet. However rigor is not a substitute for value. Any analysis of stock, rigorous or not, is valuable if it recommends a course of action which will yield a profit. In this sense Arkane has established a pattern of providing valuable analyses, so he's worth listening to and critically considering the ideas he presents. The caveats to keep in mind are: When Arkane posts an idea, evaluate it yourself with the information you have available before you follow along. If you don't you're risking your own money away based entirely on past performance predicting future results. mike- is an rear end in a top hat who's making a good point in an unpalatable way. Honestly this thread is pretty good and if it was consistently filled with discourse at or above the level Arkane brings it'd be even better.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 15:21
|
|
|
Follow up question: what makes someone be an analyst instead of working in pe? It seems like you could do well at a hedge fund if you're doing consistently good analysis, but I don't know what the perks of being an analyst are. Legitimately curious!
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 15:33
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 21, 2024 10:31 |
|
|
DNova posted:I'd say coal guy is a rung above honestly. At least he made an opinion, as crazy as it seemed. I think coal guy may be a coal ghost now. Stay safe coal ghost.
|
|
#
?
Apr 10, 2015 15:51
|
|