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quote:Deteriorating economic data has led traders and analysts to speculate that China’s central bank will act to revive growth. "More bad loans to people who can never repay them! Keep piling private debt! Anything to keep the numbers high!"
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Apr 11, 2015 01:40
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I wonder how many of those companies are shadow banks.
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Apr 11, 2015 02:08
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Shifty Pony posted:I had a question about that. Is there an attempt to crack down on this outflow? Is that possible in a country where a bribe can go pretty far? Will we see China start attempting to claw back overseas deposits and investments similarly to how the US has been chasing tax dodging? This is what Hong Kong is and Macau is for. Park your loving money in HKD as it's pegged to the USD. Ardennes posted:Yeah, we will see about that. I think a lot of the "average people" are going to lose their shirts in the coming stock crash. Also, there are other issues of massive corruption and inequality in China that are immensely comparable to the type of poo poo that goes down in Russia, hell China may be the teacher rather than the student in that regard. Hey guys I have shares in the hong Kong stock exchange. at 170, market crashed a bit right after the HK-Shanghai through train and down the price of the stock went to 130's. I'm just back from Australia and last time I checked it's 250. Hell yeah I'm rich. In a really really weird way. Oh and there's going to be a HK-Shenzhen through train. Welp. Another roller coaster ride? Maybe I can make a million USD this time
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Apr 11, 2015 11:45
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Cultural Imperial posted:lol at the implication that Chinese retail investors are sophisticated, financially savvy market actors. There's waaaay too many get rich schemes here and people are dumb enough to buy "limited edition currency" for a 100000000% return after 50 years. All retail investors are dumb. China's government can easily bend the rules and set market limits on whim. Double dumb
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Apr 11, 2015 11:48
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And now I'm remembering what happened in the US when our steel plants shut down. Ow.
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Apr 11, 2015 14:24
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Does anyone know what the 90th percentile income is in China? My flatmate says it is around one million pounds per year, which seems hilariously wrong (in the US it is about one tenth of that amount). I've looked online but it is pretty hard to find statistics on China. She also claimed that the average family makes £34k per year and has ten times that in assets. One of her friends said that sounded about right too, I just don't know. edit: both of them are chinese Private Speech fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Apr 11, 2015 |
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Apr 11, 2015 21:28
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Private Speech posted:She also claimed that the average family makes £34k per year and has ten times that in assets. LMAO.
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Apr 11, 2015 21:45
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Private Speech posted:Does anyone know what the 90th percentile income is in China? My flatmate says it is around one million pounds per year, which seems hilariously wrong (in the US it is about one tenth of that amount). I've looked online but it is pretty hard to find statistics on China. You might find that information in the NBS database, which is much easer to use after the recent update: http://data.stats.gov.cn. After a quick look, you can find the percentile data for rural households under Annual-->People's Living Conditions-->Percentage of Rural Households Grouped by Per Capita Annual Net Income. The 90th percentile for annual net income of rural households is around 17000RMB in 2012. I'm not immediately seeing the data for urban households or on the combined urban+rural level, but it's definitely available somewhere. Also, per capita total income of urban households is about 30,000RMB in 2013. The national average would then be dragged down by rural households. Your flatmate is just a bit off. WHR 49.5 fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Apr 11, 2015 |
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Apr 11, 2015 21:54
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WHR 49.5 posted:You might find that information in the NBS database, which is much easer to use after the recent update: http://data.stats.gov.cn. Thanks! Apparently the 90th percentile for urban households was 69,000RMB in 2012 (People's Living Conditions->According to ... urban households income->the average annual income). I, uhh, that's less than I expected. Her family isn't even that rich. I guess she doesn't think about money too much. Private Speech fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Apr 12, 2015 |
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Apr 11, 2015 23:45
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Private Speech posted:Thanks! Apparently the 90th percentile for urban households was 69,000RMB in 2012 (People's Living Conditions->According to ... urban households income->the average annual income). I, uhh, that's less than I expected. Her family isn't even that rich. I guess she doesn't think about money too much. Bear in mind, 2nd and 3rd tier cities are much cheaper than 1st.
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Apr 12, 2015 00:17
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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/04/10/2126327/this-is-really-nuts-whens-the-crash/quote:
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Apr 13, 2015 05:12
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Tell me more about H-shares! Thanks!
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Apr 13, 2015 05:24
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One the highlight for me of the Dotcom crash was Palm had a market cap that greatly exceeded that of 3Com who, as it would happen, owned 90-95% of Palm. How much of that is going on? Or is it pretty much impossible to follow ownership and corporate ties in China?
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Apr 13, 2015 05:31
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People want to ride the bubble. The property bubble is over and wages are stagnant or declining even in nominal terms. This is the last chance to get rich for a lot of people probably.
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Apr 13, 2015 05:56
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Get rich or die trying. Ok Maybe should try getting a loan and do some margin trading! Well if I sell my nest egg now and and rebuy, I can afford a brand new sky palace!
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Apr 13, 2015 06:01
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caberham posted:Get rich or die trying. Yeah, it is a bit like watching a rerun.
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Apr 13, 2015 09:09
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Wonderful News everyone:quote:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-12/one-these-chinese-things-not-other quote:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11531890/Chinas-trade-collapse-raises-fears-of-growth-slowdown.html
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Apr 13, 2015 14:31
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Holy loving poo poo. I'm going to cancel my limit at auction orders and double down my money. If I lose money I will toxx myself and donate 1000 USD in Save the Children
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Apr 13, 2015 14:36
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So I'm going to raise my hand and ask a silly question (and those of you who know me, this is a legitimate question): It seems like China's current economic woes/woes-to-be are growing pains from the attempted transition to a service-based economy. So assuming the possible rocky times ahead are temporary and China comes out the other side of economic purgatory... how do you have a legitimate, successful service-based economy with such a huge population and a relatively small GDP-per-cap compared to first world nations, with a still mostly-centralized and planned economy via the CCP? I'm just... I can't quite wrap my head around how a successful service-based Chinese economy would look like, especially if we try to assume Xi's anti-corruption campaign is true to its word, so then it is a less-corrupt service-based economy. This is also not factoring in that if there is an impending economic collapse/market collapse, it will probably hit the middle- and lower- class folks harder and widen the already impressive inequality.  The only thing I can think of is that China will try to get into a war with the idea of replicating the US during/after WWII.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:43
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A lot of the economic boon the US received from the war was from the government tapping productive capacity left unused by the Depression. China already has huge SOEs propping up employment.
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Apr 13, 2015 16:03
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Amergin posted:I'm just... I can't quite wrap my head around how a successful service-based Chinese economy would look like, KTVs as far as the eye can see caberham posted:Holy loving poo poo. I'm going to cancel my limit at auction orders and double down my money. If I lose money I will toxx myself and donate 1000 USD in Save the Children You won't have 1000 USD to donate if you keep this up long enough.
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Apr 13, 2015 16:08
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Since economics is largely fraud, you should take any service based transition to be a lie as well. Why does cutting your hair cost a quarter in China but 20 dollars in the us? No system can quite explain this other than it just is, its history. So how will China be a successful service economy? Aren't they already? They do it for poo poo pay, but they gotta eat, so hair cutters, prostitutes, passing out ads, whatever, the poor are serving in mass already.
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Apr 13, 2015 19:14
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Femur posted:Why does cutting your hair cost a quarter in China but 20 dollars in the us? No system can quite explain this other than it just is, its history. Because an average Chinese person makes about $1000 a year while the average American makes 30 times that. Also $20 is pretty expensive for a hair cut in the US, most places you can get it done for $15 or less.
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Apr 13, 2015 19:26
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A quarter goes further in China than it does in the US because China is still poor as gently caress.quote:So how will China be a successful service economy? Aren't they already? They do it for poo poo pay, but they gotta eat, so hair cutters, prostitutes, passing out ads, whatever, the poor are serving in mass already. Trying to transition to a consumption-based service economy while per-capita GDP is still around $6,000 will cause a severe and long-lasting recession at best, which means kiss the "China Dream" goodbye and also possibly the CCP unless they can double down on their authoritarian rule (which we're already seeing.) There is literally no way out of this for China. Beijing can continue to try and prop up the economy through stimulus but diminishing returns on that have been in play for a couple years now as debt racks up, meaning growth will continue to slow but with the added risk of causing the economy to collapse under the debt. Beijing can step back and let banks and SOE's fail which would send the economy into a tailspin and possibly a depression. Beijing could start nationalizing industries which would cause huge amounts of capital flight and also crush the economy. They can try to do what they're supposedly trying to do now which is switch the economy from being based on exports to consumption, which even if pulled off perfectly would cause economic growth to drop to sub-5% at best, as well as fueling unemployment and probably social unrest since China only has a middle class of roughly 60 million to fuel a consumption based economy. The CCP could voluntarily give up power and China could become a liberal democracy, and I could watch this from my moon base after riding there on my unicorn. I don't envy Beijing policy makers right now.
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Apr 13, 2015 19:34
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I do because they're rich as gently caress and steal from a billion people and they worship you for it.
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Apr 13, 2015 19:36
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Nonsense posted:I do because they're rich as gently caress and steal from a billion people and they worship you for it. On the other hand they have to live in China.
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Apr 13, 2015 19:38
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The savings grace is that China does have gigantic currency reserves which they can still call upon for fiscal stimulus, the "Chinese dream" is going to be dimmed but the CCP has a giant warchest. What it will probably mean is that Chinese growth is going to come to earth fairly hard, and China will start having to deal with problems every other middle income developing country has.
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Apr 13, 2015 19:51
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Also China is heading over a demographic cliff and there is no way to mitigate or change that.
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Apr 13, 2015 19:55
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Fojar38 posted:On the other hand they have to live in China. Fortunately for them, not the same China as the 1.1 billion~ other Chinese.
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Apr 13, 2015 19:58
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Fojar38 posted:Also China is heading over a demographic cliff and there is no way to mitigate or change that. Stepping up the execution vans on crimes committed by old people might. 
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Apr 13, 2015 20:03
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Femur posted:Since economics is largely fraud, you should take any service based transition to be a lie as well. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity Read and be amazed
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Apr 14, 2015 00:32
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lo;lcaixin posted:The largest loan guarantee company in the northern province of Hebei has been in trouble since investors discovered it did not have enough capital to back its guarantees. english.caixin.com/2015-04-13/100799811.html Note that this was a state-owned regulatory agency like FDIC knowingly violating regulations. 
Arglebargle III fucked around with this message at 05:51 on Apr 14, 2015 |
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Apr 14, 2015 05:46
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Arglebargle III posted:lo;l If you abolished the current civil code in China, what would change? Certainly, not much in terms of practices on the ground.
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Apr 14, 2015 06:00
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people would be a lot more willing to help strangers
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Apr 14, 2015 06:23
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Ardennes posted:The savings grace is that China does have gigantic currency reserves which they can still call upon for fiscal stimulus, the "Chinese dream" is going to be dimmed but the CCP has a giant warchest. China CANNOT use its foreign reserves to bail out its economy because the foreign reserves are, well, foreign currencies. The obligations of the entities that would be rescued in a bailout/stimulus are denominated in RMB. So even if the Chinese government were to use its foreign reserves for fiscal stimulus, in the end those foreign currencies will have to be exchange for an equivalent amount of RMB, which leads to the Chinese government's problem of figuring out where to get more RMB.
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Apr 14, 2015 09:53
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CIGNX posted:China CANNOT use its foreign reserves to bail out its economy because the foreign reserves are, well, foreign currencies. The obligations of the entities that would be rescued in a bailout/stimulus are denominated in RMB. So even if the Chinese government were to use its foreign reserves for fiscal stimulus, in the end those foreign currencies will have to be exchange for an equivalent amount of RMB, which leads to the Chinese government's problem of figuring out where to get more RMB. The PBOC can create more RMB when they want to, the question is defending it, which they obviously can with those very reserves. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-02/china-may-soon-need-its-own-quantitative-easing-program The question is when the losses became insurmountable, but they won't reach that point in at least the mid-term. What most likely is going to happen is China is going to keep a loose policy like Japan did but at the same time growth is going to drop as consumers and exports both get sapped. Chinese population growth is still more positive than Japan, and China still has enough developmental headroom left for some growth but it is going to probably be in "normal ranges" of 2-5% rather than 7-10%. That said, if China is only growing a silver more than the US is, it is going to take far far longer for them to catch up, and at the same time the Chinese military almost certainly is going to eat up more of the budget. China is neither going to collapse nor will it dominate the world ala Looper.
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Apr 14, 2015 10:30
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Anyone want to comment on exports collapsing 15%? That sounds kind of apocalyptic.
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Apr 14, 2015 12:03
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I can't wait for all the terrible The Indian Century articles in the ten-twenty year range.
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Apr 14, 2015 13:37
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Peel posted:I can't wait for all the terrible The Indian Century articles in the ten-twenty year range. In the dark future, the NuRupee is the only world currency and everyone in the "conquered territories" eats only a diet of naan and dal rations. How did it go so wrong?
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Apr 14, 2015 14:32
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Indians will complain about how every time they call customer service they'll get "Manish" from "Bangalore" who is obviously Chad from Phoenix. If China's economy craters in the next decade, what consequences will that have for the American economy? Will it hamper infrastructure development in places like Tanzania?
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Apr 14, 2015 16:38
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