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Somaen posted:Ukraine is an interesting component of this situation, because Kadyrov swore loyalty and protecting the interests of Russia and sent people to Donbass to show his deep loyalty. He must feel pretty betrayed after Putin let the investigators dig into the Nemtsov murder, arrest the assassin and now shoot some other guy in the middle of Grozny. Swearing fealty and raising levies like it's the year of our lord 1015. Nice!
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Apr 23, 2015 18:24
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Disinterested posted:This poo poo is not complicated. It is when you switch who you're supposedly responding to multiple times, with no indication thereof. You ninja edited your first post to reply to Skeesix, then you said in your followup that you were arguing with Cingulate- so your posting seems to have confused even yourself. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Apr 23, 2015 |
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Apr 23, 2015 18:30
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The Verkhovna Rada just passed an ammendment to the decomunization/Communist and Nazi symbol ban law to clarify which stuff they didn't ban. New exclusion is old documents (such as diplomas), and they made not applying to military stuff explicit, rather than subject to interpretation. Oh so does UP's report say, anyway --- I can't seem to find the amendment text on the Rada's site (the vote page just gives the original bill's number).
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Apr 23, 2015 18:30
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Discendo Vox posted:It is when you switch who you're supposedly responding to multiple times, with no indication thereof. You ninja edited your first post to reply to Skeesix, then you said in your followup that you were arguing with Cingulate- so your posting seems to have confused even yourself. I'm p sure I didn't edit my post and at no point have been arguing with cingulate, who reiterated my view.
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Apr 23, 2015 19:01
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Cingulate posted:Hey, can anybody link me to a good summary on the Nemtsov/Kadyrov thing? I have completely missed everything. I don't know if there's a good summary in English, I found these point to the key events: 1) http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/08/boris-nemtsov-five-suspects-appear-in-court-over-opposition-leaders-killing 2) http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=59484 3) http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=519667 However, all of them seem to be missing really hosed up facts that surfaced recently. The first is that on the 30th of May 2014, Nemtsov sent an official inquiry to the director of the FSB about the Chechen mercenaries being sent to Donetsk. Nemtsov's close friend Ilya Yashin says that it suggests he was digging on powerful people in Chechnya and it might've been the reason for his murder. Secondly is that the investigative comittee of Russia was not allowed to question Ruslan Geremeev, who is suspected of being the organizer of Nemtsov's murder and was the deputy commander of the Sever specnaz battallion. He was heavily guarded by Checnyan special forces in his native village and the feds and investigators were told to gently caress off for a few weeks. After that he was reported to have fled Russia and has been spotted in the UAE. Edit: Stratfor has a decent summary actually: https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/chechen-link-russian-activists-death Somaen fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Apr 23, 2015 |
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Apr 23, 2015 19:23
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, in the field of linguistics he is actually a titan, but in history and political science, not so much. He's enough of a titan in linguistics that he's even affected computer science with the Chomsky hierarchy.
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Apr 23, 2015 19:25
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bearic posted:Remember those horrible wildfires in Siberia that have killed over 30 people? A while ago a Russian official blamed the "opposition" for starting the fires.
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Apr 23, 2015 19:35
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cA9cGUGr00
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Apr 23, 2015 21:10
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bearic posted:Remember those horrible wildfires in Siberia that have killed over 30 people? A while ago a Russian official blamed the "opposition" for starting the fires. What a barbaric state.
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Apr 23, 2015 21:14
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Russia will deplete most of their reserves by the end of the year if they continue the current level of support for the Ruble. http://top.rbc.ru/finances/22/04/2015/5537975b9a79474dc1d65359 quote:Sberbank has warned of the risk of exhaustion of the Reserve Fund in 2015
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Apr 23, 2015 21:20
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Currently drinking a nice large grog in anticipation of the Russian collapse.
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Apr 23, 2015 21:33
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:Currently drinking a nice large grog in anticipation of the Russian collapse. London-Putinites will cook the books to make Russia look stronk.
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Apr 23, 2015 21:34
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Russia will deplete most of their reserves by the end of the year if they continue the current level of support for the Ruble. They are talking about a specific reserves fund in their reserve pool. Right now total currency reserves supposedly around 350B dollars or 17.5 trillion rubles (in the Bank of Russia), in addition there is a separate wealth fund. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Apr 23, 2015 |
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Apr 23, 2015 21:34
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Russia will deplete most of their reserves by the end of the year if they continue the current level of support for the Ruble. So falling foreign exchange rates were bad for Russia, and now the rebound is also bad for Russia?  Maybe it's just that Russia is bad for Russia?
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Apr 23, 2015 21:46
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TasogareNoKagi posted:So falling foreign exchange rates were bad for Russia, and now the rebound is also bad for Russia? Very simply: a falling Ruble is bad for consumers but better for the government, a rising Ruble is better for consumers but not so great for the government. Remember, that oil is sold on the world market for a X number of rubles versus the dollar, and then the government pays public workers and expenses with those Rubles. The more Rubles they sell for, the more they have on hand. However, if the Ruble strengthens then the opposite happens. This is assuming the price of oil is constant. In this case though the price of oil is likely going to go up while the Ruble stabilizes: the Ruble is at $50 right now and Brent is at $64. Sberbank assumes it will be 2750 rubles per barrel for the rest of 2015, while right now it is 3200 Rubles which is a fairly significant difference. There are obviously various scenarios you can work out: the price of oil and the Ruble fluctuates all the time, and the acceleration of change can be highly variable. Edit: Oh and it is pretty likely the Bank of Russia is going to lower rates further which will likely depress the Ruble further, if anything they are worried the Ruble has appreciated too much (the above reason being one). One thing is they seem to also want a healthy discount on the Euro. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Apr 23, 2015 |
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Apr 23, 2015 21:52
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MaxxBot posted:This is the main question I've had for leftists for a while now, given that I don't actually know any in real life I haven't been able to ask it. They seem to be completely occupied with (often correct) arguments about how bad American imperialism and hegemony can be but they stop there, when really their job would have to be to explain why Russian/Chinese imperialism/hegemony would be preferable to having it come from America. Leftists (of the non-crazy variety) tend to be opposed to imperialism in principle. It's just that many have a blind spot when it comes to empires other than the big dominant one. On a more pragmatic level, I expect things from America. I don't expect anything from Russia because it's a morally bankrupt hellscape of corruption and poverty, and the same applies to China, so if it's Yank hegemony that preserves the peace, fine. I like Americans. Thing is, "benevolent hegemony" means being held to a much higher moral standard than the aforementioned autocratic shitholes, so the US should still be mercilessly called out when they act like domineering neocolonial assholes. (ie about half the time)
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Apr 24, 2015 00:21
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kalstrams posted:Primary source seems to be somewhat lacking. Are we sure this isn't "вброс"? Still, he's a goddamn moron, but not as bad as I thought at first.
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Apr 24, 2015 03:02
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bearic posted:At first, this was being reported that said that he started fire-fires (Ukraine Today, lol, and a few other outlets using ambiguous language), but then some more info has come out since that makes it sound like he just started a dinky little fire for a TV shot (while the big wildfires were still going) and it didn't necessarily spread. Gotta give the Russians a pass here, this is something I wouldn't be surprised by if it was a local TV station in the USA. Fire Tracker 8000 *blurry red tinted image of a water tanker, a fire, a crying person, and a firetruck, with a target symbol and Fire Tracker 8000 overlaid*
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Apr 24, 2015 03:09
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Guildencrantz posted:Leftists (of the non-crazy variety) tend to be opposed to imperialism in principle. It's just that many have a blind spot when it comes to empires other than the big dominant one. Yeah, I just don't view a lack of imperialism or some sort of stable multi-polar world as Ardennes described as being particularly likely outcomes. It seems to me that a rampdown of American hegemony, which most leftists seem to really want, would almost certainly result in a ramp up of hegemony from even less "benevolent" sources. That's not to say I support a lot of the excesses that the US is currently involved in, I just don't think the dramatic scaledown that leftists call for would result in the net reduction of imperialism that they think it would. MaxxBot fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Apr 24, 2015 |
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Apr 24, 2015 03:13
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Another convoy from Russia has crossed into Ukraine and returned: http://www.osce.org/om/153171
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Apr 24, 2015 03:32
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bitcoin bastard posted:Gotta give the Russians a pass here, this is something I wouldn't be surprised by if it was a local TV station in the USA. Fire Tracker 8000 *blurry red tinted image of a water tanker, a fire, a crying person, and a firetruck, with a target symbol and Fire Tracker 8000 overlaid* It's the main national channel, though.  Not that I wold be surprised by national NBC/ABC/CBS pulling a dumb stunt like that, either.
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Apr 24, 2015 03:39
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OddObserver posted:It's the main national channel, though. Whoops on the local/national thing, and yeah it's not like anyone lied about their helicopter related antics lately on the national stage.
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Apr 24, 2015 03:40
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So (Afghani-Ukrainian) Journalist-turned-MP Musfata Nayem has gotten his hands on what's supposed to be internal memos of Akhmetov's DTEK conglomerate: http://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/nayem/55397eabd8918/ (in Russian, still reading). It covers their strategy to pressure the government to fire the energy minister, since they feel their monopoly in certain markets may be threatened. Stuff like inserting stories to media, including international (DW), staging "protests" --- there were a couple in the capital the last couple of days, etc. Something between tinfoil territory and PR, it seems. On past days, they mention meetings with Danish and Swedish ambassadors --- if true, that could be somewhat questionable, no? (It also discusses how they want to continue operating across conflict line --- which may be enough to throw a whole bunch of people in jail...)
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Apr 24, 2015 05:56
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The opposite end of the spectrum from the Texan. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTSQgQeVUEc
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Apr 24, 2015 07:08
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MH17 news, of sortsquote:Dutch expert fired after showing MH17 victim photos in public lecture
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Apr 24, 2015 07:12
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sparatuvs posted:The opposite end of the spectrum from the Texan. What are the laws concerning Americans killing each other while fighting abroad?
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Apr 24, 2015 08:33
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MaxxBot posted:Yeah, I just don't view a lack of imperialism or some sort of stable multi-polar world as Ardennes described as being particularly likely outcomes. It seems to me that a rampdown of American hegemony, which most leftists seem to really want, would almost certainly result in a ramp up of hegemony from even less "benevolent" sources. That's not to say I support a lot of the excesses that the US is currently involved in, I just don't think the dramatic scaledown that leftists call for would result in the net reduction of imperialism that they think it would. It very well may not, but in the case of the US, may simply not have the same superiority of economic resources over its competition it once had and so there is a question about how you handle that. It could be relatively peaceful economic competition or what it is occurring now, which seem a growing number of proxy wars. The influence of the US obviously isn't going to disappear, and it will probably be the strongest country in the world for most of this century but the superiority of that strength is going to have greater limits. As for the benevolence of imperialism, that is an endless debate that is probably going to cover decades of foreign policy and how much you economic philosophy you ascribe or not to it. Personally, I think many issues of American foreign are tied to much of the economic ideas we either promote or try to lead through with example with. That said, China and Russia ascribe to similar ideas if in sometimes even more stark form but ultimately there is the argument to be made there needs to be some type of ideological competition out there even if it doesn't exist at the moment. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 09:08 on Apr 24, 2015 |
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Apr 24, 2015 08:45
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Dolash posted:What are the laws concerning Americans killing each other while fighting abroad? Dusty Baker 2 posted:Donetsk, don't tell. Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8W6aDu_CmGM Author of video claims that opposition backs miners' protest with hard currency. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:39 on Apr 24, 2015 |
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Apr 24, 2015 10:11
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Brown Moses posted:MH17 news, of sorts quote:The lecture was given in early April to an audience of around 150 people and showing the photos would have been allowed for educational purposes if the general public were not allowed in. this is stupid.
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Apr 24, 2015 10:41
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Seems like there is something up with advocates from Kyiv. Camouflaged men, allegedly, deny them entrance to the 3rd Gathering of Ukraine's Advocates for a few hours already. What is special about this gathering are elections of Ukraine's High Council of Justice. ZN suggests that there might be inside conflict between Kyiv's advocate council and National association of advocates.
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Apr 24, 2015 11:10
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kalstrams posted:Edit: I don't think Hrivnya counts as "hard" currency.
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Apr 24, 2015 12:55
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OddObserver posted:I don't think Hrivnya counts as "hard" currency.
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Apr 24, 2015 12:58
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Ardennes posted:As for the benevolence of imperialism, that is an endless debate that is probably going to cover decades of foreign policy and how much you economic philosophy you ascribe or not to it. Personally, I think many issues of American foreign are tied to much of the economic ideas we either promote or try to lead through with example with. That said, China and Russia ascribe to similar ideas if in sometimes even more stark form but ultimately there is the argument to be made there needs to be some type of ideological competition out there even if it doesn't exist at the moment. Yeah, the only problem I have with America as global hegemon is that America currently practices a predatory and frankly dangerous form of capitalism if TPP, TTIP, ACTA and so on are any indication. American hegemony will give rise to transnational corporations with as much or more power than individual states which is unacceptable in my opinion. Still the alternative is a bi or multi polar world order where Russia and/or China are the other pole and that's even more problematic. If America could stop selling itself wholesale to corporate interests (they can't) then it would be a no brainer.
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Apr 24, 2015 13:28
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A Pale Horse posted:Yeah, the only problem I have with America as global hegemon is that America currently practices a predatory and frankly dangerous form of capitalism if TPP, TTIP, ACTA and so on are any indication. American hegemony will give rise to transnational corporations with as much or more power than individual states which is unacceptable in my opinion. Still the alternative is a bi or multi polar world order where Russia and/or China are the other pole and that's even more problematic. If America could stop selling itself wholesale to corporate interests (they can't) then it would be a no brainer. Well there is also the issue that the particular brand of economic mindset that is popular in all 3 "powers" is very short term style of capitalism, China itself may already be on the verge of a financial crisis and in Putin's Russia it is obvious. Ultimately, the preferable result for many is the type of "Goldilocks" zone that happened in Sweden for example, but the question is how you get there. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 14:20 on Apr 24, 2015 |
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Apr 24, 2015 13:55
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You talking about getting a visa or do you need directions?
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Apr 24, 2015 14:00
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Ardennes posted:Well there is also the issue that the particular brand of economic mindset that is popular in all 3 "powers" is very short term style of capitalism, China itself may already be on the verge of a financial crisis and in Putin's it is obvious. Ultimately, the preferable result for many is the type of "Goldilocks" zone that happened in Sweden for example, but the question is how you get there. Yeah I agree, a well regulated market with a generous social safety net is the ideal, but as you said, America's way past that point now. It will be hard to roll back the changes that have occurred over the past 15-20 years in terms of deregulation, globalization and destruction of trade unions especially as both American parties are essentially the same on those issues and a third party challenge is almost impossible due to the way the American system is set up. And as goes America, so go her allies and dependents. And, as you said, its not even like the Chinese or Russians are offering anything different. Its the same poo poo with the added bonus of strong authoritarianism. Who knows though, maybe Google or Apple or Goldman Sachs will be benevolent masters. 
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Apr 24, 2015 14:12
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This discussion is timely to me since I was just thinking of how the company towns in East Ukraine fit into the larger Left discourse, but failing to come up with anything particularly insightful.... but perhaps the very issue is worth pursuing. Anyway, lots of smaller (and even non-small: Mariupol) towns are heavily economically dependent on businesses owned by a single oligarch, giving them basically god-like standing in the community; people may not dare vote against the oligarch's wishes. Oh, and despite the industrial nature there isn't really a credible union movement to try to balance their power. So... people already are living under corporatist masters, and often those that got in their position.by out right theft and murder.
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Apr 24, 2015 14:20
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Final accusations out for Savchenko. Source.quote:Asisstance in murder of two or more persons, assistance in murder attempt of two or more persons by a group of people, motivated by political hate, via generally dangerous means, and trespassing of borders of Russian Federation.
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Apr 24, 2015 14:29
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A Pale Horse posted:Yeah I agree, a well regulated market with a generous social safety net is the ideal, but as you said, America's way past that point now. It will be hard to roll back the changes that have occurred over the past 15-20 years in terms of deregulation, globalization and destruction of trade unions especially as both American parties are essentially the same on those issues and a third party challenge is almost impossible due to the way the American system is set up. And as goes America, so go her allies and dependents. And, as you said, its not even like the Chinese or Russians are offering anything different. Its the same poo poo with the added bonus of strong authoritarianism. Who knows though, maybe Google or Apple or Goldman Sachs will be benevolent masters. I guess you could always hope that some of the smarter people in DC start picking up on those issues, and push for reform if only to shore up American influence. In a sense, Obama's foreign policy recently is pushing in a more dovish direction (Cuba, Iran). However, the ultimate issue is at least in terms of economic ideology, the political culture in DC and obviously the financial culture in New York and London is still very rigid and that isn't likely to change.The result of this is that Russia and China can appeal to nationalism and historical nostalgia very easily because such deep cynicism has already set in there. I mean if you talk to a Chinese worker about the necessity of breaking up the state owned enterprise he works at, he probably isn't going to be very receptive for a reason. OddObserver posted:This discussion is timely to me since I was just thinking of how the company towns in East Ukraine fit into the larger Left discourse, but failing to come up with anything particularly insightful.... but perhaps the very issue is worth pursuing. I think it is a dual edged sword from the viewpoint of the people in those towns. The local oligarch is likely abusive, corrupt and will probably respond to genuine union movements with thugs, and if anything he is closely analogous to a 19th century robber baron. However, in a globalized world, on the other hand he offers predictability to workers and their families since he is unlikely to simply walk away from local factories and mines sas he has a personal investment in the place. It is obviously a sad trap though, and in Eastern Ukraine (as in other parts of many former Soviet states) this sort of dire compromise happens because people feel they have no choice and many times they honestly don't. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Apr 24, 2015 |
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Apr 24, 2015 14:31
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Steinmeier starts up appeaso-mobile again: http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-eu-trade-deal-steinmeier-russian-concerns/26976163.html quote:
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Apr 24, 2015 15:10
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