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Look at it this way: It's not happening right away, but there has been a definite shift in that direction. If it continues, and Texas eventually goes blue, it's going to be a hell of a lot more difficult for republican presidencies to happen. Like, ever again.
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May 9, 2015 15:41
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Wow the Central Valley is not as republican as it seems apparently. Yeah from that map, the San Joaquin Valley's GOP strongholds were suburban Fresno/Clovis and Tulare/Kern Counties. Obama won San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Merced counties (and I think Fresno County too). It's a far cry from when Bush swept the valley in 2004 and nearly won Sacramento County.
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May 9, 2015 15:47
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Cubey posted:In addition to the unskewed polls guy, I seem to remember other, more nationally recognized polls like Gallup that had the race as being too close to call, if not slightly in Romney's favor. At one point in October 2012, Gallup had Romney up by seven points.
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May 9, 2015 16:24
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Slate Action posted:At one point in October 2012, Gallup had Romney up by seven points. If that was right after the first debate that's right about what D&D had too.
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May 9, 2015 16:26
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May 9, 2015 16:54
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computer parts posted:If that was right after the first debate that's right about what D&D had too. Yeah there was a brief period there where R-money probably was legit ahead.
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May 9, 2015 16:56
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah there was a brief period there where R-money probably was legit ahead. Eh, on the same day the SCOTUS upheld the ACA the EU took actions to stabilize Greece, and at that point with the two major factors off the table (the ACA and the economy crashing) Silver had Obama ahead and never looked back
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May 9, 2015 17:12
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Chick Fil A goers sing God Bless America https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF00qCIGe04
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May 9, 2015 17:22
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I didn't know they catered. Wonder if they'd provide food for a special wedding reception...  Arguably smart of them though; good publicity right there.
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May 9, 2015 17:32
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What kind of monster gives people cold Chick-Fil-A? That's not thanks at all.
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May 9, 2015 17:33
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Gyges posted:What kind of monster gives people cold Chick-Fil-A? That's not thanks at all. Some people like it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYIUuyoSVAs
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May 9, 2015 17:36
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Terrible food for terrible people - fitting, really.
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May 9, 2015 17:36
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ThirdPartyView posted:Terrible food for terrible people - fitting, really.
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May 9, 2015 17:58
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Grey Fox posted:You're half-right! Tea Partiers are not terrible people? 
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May 9, 2015 18:02
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ThirdPartyView posted:Tea Partiers are not terrible people? They just love freedom and the constitution and tricorner hats. What's wrong with that?
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May 9, 2015 18:15
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Disappointing that they would server some Georgia food at a SC event. I mean, they could of got Maurice's BBQ to cater if they wanted a freedom loving organization to do it. Wasn't there an article a few months ago about how Republican staffers in DC were loving sick of eating CFL every meal?
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May 9, 2015 18:36
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lamentable dustman posted:Disappointing that they would server some Georgia food at a SC event. I mean, they could of got Maurice's BBQ to cater if they wanted a freedom loving organization to do it. Not just staffers. The chairmaaaaaaaaaaan is tired of it too.
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May 9, 2015 18:39
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Governor Carcetti recently hired a national political director. Does this count as a "campaign activity," where he now has to file his 2016 paperwork in the next 15 days?
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May 9, 2015 18:45
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Joementum posted:Not just staffers. The chairmaaaaaaaaaaan is tired of it too. quote:Burke used to run a second franchise in Alexandria, Virginia, the one that caters Graham's birthday parties. "Lindsey," as he calls him, would send Burke a photo with a note as a thank-you, and Burke would respond with a gift of his own—a mug or other Chick-fil-A trinket as a birthday gift for the senator. Sadly, Burke says, the two have never met, but based on their correspondence, he believes they are "kindred spirits." "I don't know if we ever met that we'd be best friends, or anything like that," Burke says. "But if he needed a good chicken sandwich, I know where he can get one."
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May 9, 2015 18:47
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ThirdPartyView posted:Tea Partiers are not terrible people? edit: but yes I'd be sick of it too if I had it at every catered event Grey Fox fucked around with this message at 18:52 on May 9, 2015 |
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May 9, 2015 18:50
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It's breaded chicken with a pickle on a bun.
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May 9, 2015 18:53
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Donald Trump is proposing a 35% import tariff on all goods. Somehow he's managed to come up with policy proposals even more unlikely than his candidacy. Then, "I wrote a book called The Art of the Deal, which I'm sure everybody in this room has read, except the people negotiating with Iran. But they're babies. They're babies!" "Tell Tom Brady, who has twelve feet of snow in front of his house, about global warming. He can't get out!" "I believe in clean air. I've got a ton of environmental awards." "I love the guys of Duck Dynasty. They stay at my luxury hotels. But this did not look like the Duck Dynasty guys." "We got illegals. We got free cars. We got no jobs." "The lobbyists will come and see me, but I don't give a poo poo about lobbyists." It's kind of impossible to take Trump out of context because that would assume his speech had context.
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May 9, 2015 18:57
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Sanders campaign event about to kick off at Syracuse.
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May 9, 2015 19:05
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lamentable dustman posted:Disappointing that they would server some Georgia food at a SC event. I mean, they could of got Maurice's BBQ to cater if they wanted a freedom loving organization to do it. Nah Maurice's hasn't been at the same spot on the "Real American" list since the old racist bastard died and his heirs quickly scrubbed every ounce of confederate poo poo from the brand and all restaurants.
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May 9, 2015 19:39
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Joementum posted:Donald Trump is proposing a 35% import tariff on all goods. Somehow he's managed to come up with policy proposals even more unlikely than his candidacy. Autarky American style would be a thing to see.
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May 9, 2015 20:00
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Concerned Citizen posted:10% of Elizabeth Warren's fundraising, per Open Secrets, was from Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate. That's a fairly broad sector, and it includes much more than "the casino that destroyed the economy." And even a janitor at Goldman Sachs who sends in $5 might find himself counted as a Goldman contribution. Industry sources of donations are interesting, but I wouldn't read that much into it. PAC contributions are a more useful source to track than individual contributions as well. 1.) Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (or FIRE) was instrumental in the housing bubble that destroyed the economy. Why did you put casino in air quotes? This is fairly well established. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-20100405 quote:Goldman used two methods to hide the mess they were selling. First, they bundled hundreds of different mortgages into instruments called Collateralized Debt Obligations. Then they sold investors on the idea that, because a bunch of those mortgages would turn out to be OK, there was no reason to worry so much about the lovely ones: The CDO, as a whole, was sound. Thus, junk-rated mortgages were turned into AAA-rated investments. Second, to hedge its own bets, Goldman got companies like AIG to provide insurance — known as credit default swaps — on the CDOs. The swaps were essentially a racetrack bet between AIG and Goldman: Goldman is betting the ex-cons will default, AIG is betting they won't. Insurance (specifically housing insurance) benefits from any policy that creates a housing bubble. Also future providers, yadda yadda. 2.) You only list your employment if you >$200 to a campaign. Please remember to do research before posting! I also sincerely doubt janitors are dropping double benjamins to Hillary's campaign in significant numbers to affect the $21 million dollar total. Also Warren's total donation was ~8%, not 10%, but hey. 3.) Did you look at the PAC contributions? You will notice a whose who of bail out receivers on it. For the record, #1 is a pro-choice group (good!) and lawyer lobby (meh). I suppose you are technically correct in that you only said Finance but they're basically inseperable from the rest of the FIRE group when it comes to the financial crisis. I would recommend reading the whole Taibi piece if you have time. - Kalman posted:"Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate" also includes bank tellers, insurance salespeople, and real estate brokers. It doesn't actually tel you that much about the viewpoint being espoused. If a candidate had a bunch of oil company employees donating to a republican, would you think they were donating because of their view of gun control? Campaign donations are very effective predictor of legislative behavior. When looking through the literature I found like a billion papers but this one seemed the most complete/summarized. That first paragraph is empirical false if you spend more than 5s googling the topic, but is included for completeness. https://www.rochester.edu/news/show.php?id=4060 quote:Although campaign contributions are widely viewed as a corrupting influence, for decades political scientists have failed to establish a direct connection between money and legislative outcomes. None of these are quid pro quo agreements but have a demonstrated effect.
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May 9, 2015 20:06
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Shifty Pony posted:Nah Maurice's hasn't been at the same spot on the "Real American" list since the old racist bastard died and his heirs quickly scrubbed every ounce of confederate poo poo from the brand and all restaurants. I figured they would when I heard he died, I know his son had been trying to get Maurice to dump all the confederate poo poo for year but haden't been by Piggy Park in a while. Speaking of Maurice though made me need to get some of his non racist brother Malvin's BBQ in Charleston.
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May 9, 2015 20:18
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Glenn Zimmerman posted:If a candidate had a bunch of oil company employees donating to a republican, would you think they were donating because of their view of gun control? Could be coercion like the 'subtle' donation demands at Koch Industries. 
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May 9, 2015 20:23
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Glenn Zimmerman posted:Campaign donations are very effective predictor of legislative behavior. When looking through the literature I found like a billion papers but this one seemed the most complete/summarized. That first paragraph is empirical false if you spend more than 5s googling the topic, but is included for completeness. So correlation is causation is what you're saying? Or is it more likely that people choose to donate to candidates who they think are inclined toward their views?
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May 9, 2015 20:26
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ThirdPartyView posted:Could be coercion like the 'subtle' donation demands at Koch Industries. You think a flier in the mail caused a bunch of their employees to donate to Romney?
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May 9, 2015 20:40
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Series DD Funding posted:You think a flier in the mail caused a bunch of their employees to donate to Romney? Maybe it did, maybe it didn't, but in either case it certainly set the tone of the company culture that people's lives are structured around, which is absolutely coercive.
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May 9, 2015 20:42
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edit: wrong thread
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May 9, 2015 20:47
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May 9, 2015 20:52
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If this conversation didn't involve the word "yarrr" at some point then I don't want to live in this world anymore.
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May 9, 2015 21:02
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Chokes McGee posted:If this conversation didn't involve the word "yarrr" at some point then I don't want to live in this world anymore. He's not a pirate, he's a Minuteman you rube. Keep your powder dry, Ted Cruz 2016.
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May 9, 2015 21:05
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EXAKT Science posted:He's not a pirate, he's a Minuteman you rube. Keep your powder dry, Ted Cruz 2016. The two don't have to be mutually exclusive. 
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May 9, 2015 21:12
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Glenn Zimmerman posted:1.) Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (or FIRE) was instrumental in the housing bubble that destroyed the economy. Why did you put casino in air quotes? This is fairly well established. Again, this is a very broad sector. Not all finance was involved in subprime loans. In fact, most weren't. quote:2.) You only list your employment if you >$200 to a campaign. Please remember to do research before posting! Warren's was 9.9% per her 2012 campaign, when I checked it. v0v. Anyway, you're wrong. Campaigns are only required to report your donation and employer if you donate more than $200. In 2008, Hillary chose to report everyone to the FEC. Don't believe me? Check the FEC's website. Here's one of her random disclosures: http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/001/28931446001/28931446001.pdf quote:3.) Did you look at the PAC contributions? You will notice a whose who of bail out receivers on it. For the record, #1 is a pro-choice group (good!) and lawyer lobby (meh). Wong page. These are the PAC contributions in 2008. You'll notice that FIRE is in fourth. Behind "ideological" (mostly leadership PACs and groups like EMILY's List), lawyers, and labor. quote:If a candidate had a bunch of oil company employees donating to a republican, would you think they were donating because of their view of gun control? I don't disagree that money in politics has a corrupting effect. Research has shown that donors get preferential treatment. This is very clear, and that's why I support restrictive campaign finance laws. But it's also easy to overstate what that money buys you. In our modern primary system, candidates collect as much money as humanly possible. Hillary was a NY-based politician, and she went where the money was: there's a lot of easy campaign cash for a NY politician in Wall Street. That doesn't mean thee was a quid pro quo, or that she is Wall Street's candidate: maybe it just means a lot of people on Wall Street support her? Not surprisingly, they're not all Republicans. There are actually a ton of wealthy center-left donors there. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 21:33 on May 9, 2015 |
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May 9, 2015 21:22
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Glenn Zimmerman posted:2.) You only list your employment if you >$200 to a campaign. Please remember to do research before posting! I had to list my employment the last few times I've donated and I've never donated over $200.
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May 9, 2015 21:24
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Joementum posted:Sanders campaign event about to kick off at Syracuse. When is Bernie going to Austin or Liberal Beacon San Antonio?
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May 9, 2015 21:34
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Joementum posted:Oh please, please, please let him create this shirt. i would wear this after he loses the primary
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May 9, 2015 23:12
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