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China sees South Korea as a giant imperialist beachhead and views NK as a giant minefield/meat grinder that invading forces would have to fight through to reach China itself. They have the same outlook towards Tibet vis India and Mongolia vis Russia. They have an incentive to keep NK from imploding but Korean unification would completely undermine the policy.
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May 13, 2015 16:50
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JeffersonClay posted:China sees South Korea as a giant imperialist beachhead and views NK as a giant minefield/meat grinder that invading forces would have to fight through to reach China itself. They have the same outlook towards Tibet vis India and Mongolia vis Russia. They have an incentive to keep NK from imploding but Korean unification would completely undermine the policy. They don't give any fucks about South Korea and have told them that as long as American bases aren't put any farther north (and they can keep the ones that are already there), SK can do whatever it wants. The main issue has always been the refugees.
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May 13, 2015 16:54
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VideoTapir posted:So North Korea gets to continue its humanitarian crisis...forever. Hey guess what so does every country. Humanitarian crises are not enough to get America or anyone else to invade a country and try to fix it up, because that's the most expensive and wasteful thing you can do.
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May 13, 2015 17:20
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JeffersonClay posted:China sees South Korea as a giant imperialist beachhead and views NK as a giant minefield/meat grinder that invading forces would have to fight through to reach China itself. woah, what's it like posting from 1955? china doesn't want a destabilization of the koreas because there's only one place for millions of NK refugees to flee towards. china's big enough now that it doesn't need buffer states to secure national defense
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May 13, 2015 17:27
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I have read articles that describe North Korea as becoming a "tributary state" to China because of the mineral and other rights China has there. Aren't they still spending a lot more on North Korea than they're making back?
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May 13, 2015 17:30
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China views NK as a buffer zone against the US" China Does Not Want the Korean Peninsula to Be Unified posted:From China’s perspective, North Korea is a buffer zone that blocks U.S. influence on the Korean Peninsula and forces U.S. troops to be stationed at a distance from China. Poll of Chinese foreign relations scholars shows substantial fears about US military and diplomatic encirclement after Korean reunification. "Chinese Perspective on North Korea and Korean Unification posted:About 50 percent of Chinese scholars believe a unified Korea is likely to pose a threat to China. This result partly explains why China is concerned about Korean reunification, which would likely be achieved under the South Korean initiative. As will be elaborated on later, China fears that a reunified Korea would become stronger, and is likely to become nationalistic and therefore pose a threat to China, including igniting territorial claims over “Gan-do,” today’s Manchuria. Many Koreans see it as their “lost territory.” It is notable that only a quarter of Chinese respondents are confident that a unified Korea will not pose any security threat to China... Yeah, China has a strategic interest in blocking reunification.
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May 13, 2015 18:07
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JeffersonClay posted:China sees South Korea as a giant imperialist beachhead and views NK as a giant minefield/meat grinder that invading forces would have to fight through to reach China itself. They have the same outlook towards Tibet vis India and Mongolia vis Russia. They have an incentive to keep NK from imploding but Korean unification would completely undermine the policy. China gives almost zero fucks about a US led invasion. They have an active military population of 2.3 million people and a half million member reserve, where the US has a half million active member army, and another half million in reserve (that latter bit including the national guard as whole.) That's just the actively trained members. They have, potentially, 618 million (that's twice the size of the US's total population) citizens that are listed as fit for duty, and a giant, sometimes difficult land mass that has been throwing off invasions for a long, long, loooong time. They are also, militarily, probably the closest not-ally in terms of technology, and they also have nukes, would be fighting on their home soil, would be being invaded, and wouldn't have to deal with anything even remotely like the war weariness that the US would have to deal with during an extended conflict. China does not give a single gently caress about the potential of a US led ground invasion. It doesn't want to deal with the economic burden of the humanitarian crisis of displaced North Koreans, or the international backlash if they don't deal with them well. Seriously, look at these two websites in comparison and just think about it. http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=china http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=United-States-of-America Remember that 'fit for duty' and 'available manpower' don't really apply for the invading country unless a full scale draft happens, and somehow the US doesn't rebel because of it. Edit: Heck, here look. http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.asp?form=form&country1=china&country2=united-states-of-america&Submit=COMPARE We have a way better Airforce and Navy, but the sheer number of artillery that they have over the US is impressive, and they even exceed the US in number of tanks. We could nuke them into the stone age, but they could likely do the same to us. The only realistic way for it to ever happen would be for the US and Russia to hit at the same time, after somehow disabling their ability to fire off nuclear missiles, and that's just not going to happen anytime soon. Yngwie Mangosteen fucked around with this message at 18:32 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 18:29
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JeffersonClay posted:China sees South Korea as a giant imperialist beachhead and views NK as a giant minefield/meat grinder that invading forces would have to fight through to reach China itself. They have the same outlook towards Tibet vis India and Mongolia vis Russia. They have an incentive to keep NK from imploding but Korean unification would completely undermine the policy. If the Koreans promise to keep hating the Japanese its possible for China to support the unification effort under Chinese guidance. Since no one in Korea can guarantee that it's no hurry to support unification. edit: Invasion form the US is not an immediate concern. China's military drool usually plan for a northern invasion. whatever7 fucked around with this message at 19:01 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 18:57
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whatever7 posted:If the Koreans promise to keep hating the Japanese its possible for China to support the unification effort under Chinese guidance. I cam promise that the Koreans will hate the Japanese forever. . .
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May 13, 2015 19:02
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He's the pictures and a link to the report: http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/kim-jong-uns-n-korea-prefers-mass-executions-by-anti-a-1701618395 http://hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/HRNKInsider_Greg_Joe_4_29_15.pdf Jeffrey Lewis talked about it on his podcast- the pictures aren't conclusive, but a showy execution seems like a good explanation: why else would you put zpu-4s on a small arms range? Why would you construct a second temporary berm so close to the firing line, etc. whatever7 posted:Seriously, why do you work up that he was executed by a cannon? It's no different from executed by leathal injection. Only one provides the cathartic thrill of seeing (hearing, smelling) roaring machines shred human bodies. Dilkington fucked around with this message at 21:11 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 19:16
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VideoTapir posted:So North Korea gets to continue its humanitarian crisis...forever. Halloween Jack posted:I have read articles that describe North Korea as becoming a "tributary state" to China because of the mineral and other rights China has there. Aren't they still spending a lot more on North Korea than they're making back? As long as the North Korean government exists, all responsibility for feeding their people - and all the blame for starvation and poverty - can be pinned on the regime. As long as the North Korean government exists, aid to North Korea can be tied to diplomatic conditions which provide some benefit for the body giving the aid, and aid can be withheld under the excuse that the North Korean government would just misuse it somehow. If the North Korean government folds, then it can no longer be a target for aid and deals, and it will no longer keep the population from spilling over into neighboring countries. No more mean old DPRK - just a massive pile of starving refugees with no one to feed them except international agencies and foreign powers, and these refugees will flow over the borders into neighboring countries while the invader is forced by domestic sentiments to stick around and help rebuild. Rolling in and blowing up the military and the government is the easy part - the really tough questions are "what happens after that" and "who will pay for it?"
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May 13, 2015 19:22
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Captain Monkey posted:China gives almost zero fucks about a US led invasion. They have an active military population of 2.3 million people and a half million member reserve, where the US has a half million active member army, and another half million in reserve (that latter bit including the national guard as whole.) That's just the actively trained members. They have, potentially, 618 million (that's twice the size of the US's total population) citizens that are listed as fit for duty, and a giant, sometimes difficult land mass that has been throwing off invasions for a long, long, loooong time. They are also, militarily, probably the closest not-ally in terms of technology, and they also have nukes, would be fighting on their home soil, would be being invaded, and wouldn't have to deal with anything even remotely like the war weariness that the US would have to deal with during an extended conflict. If you were China attempting to fight off a technologically superior imperialist aggressor with attrition and maybe WMD use, would you rather do the fighting in Manchuria or N. Korea? Perhaps their experience doing exactly that against the Japanese for over a decade convinced many that the Chinese civilian population would be better served if that battle were fought abroad. Perhaps that is part of the reason when Chinese foreign affairs scholars are asked what concerns them about korean unification, strategic diplomatic and military consequences are the primary response. Does anyone really think that China would have any significant difficulty effectively closing its border to North Korean refugees if it didn't want them? I'm having trouble imagining how China could simultaneously be terrified of millions of starving unarmed refugees but be totally unconcerned with the hegemonic expansion of the world's foremost military power/ alliance to its doorstep. JeffersonClay fucked around with this message at 19:33 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 19:24
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Dilkington posted:He's the pictures and a link to the report: I dunno. When I look at that picture, all I see is a bunch of black boxes, a couple of lines, a yellow box, and a think-tank member explaining to me that THIS set of black boxes is THAT exact model of anti-aircraft gun and the yellow box is unidentified but he thinks it's probably people. What gets me, more than the apparently unusual activity on a North Korean military base, is why an International Relations specialist with ties to the US and South Korean governments who works for a think-tank is apparently not only poring over satellite images from North Korean military bases every single day but also knowledgeable of the exact layout of those bases, the nature of each building in them, and able to tell the exact identity of military hardware from an orbital photo. If what they're saying is accurate, then it is weird, but I don't necessarily think "hmm, that's weird" justifies an immediate jump to "it must be an execution". On the other hand, the fact that they're able to write this report seems weird, to the point where one might wonder if they didn't just happen to discover this all on their own.
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May 13, 2015 19:43
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Main Paineframe posted:If the North Korean government folds, then it can no longer be a target for aid and deals, and it will no longer keep the population from spilling over into neighboring countries. No more mean old DPRK - just a massive pile of starving refugees with no one to feed them except international agencies and foreign powers, and these refugees will flow over the borders into neighboring countries while the invader is forced by domestic sentiments to stick around and help rebuild. Rolling in and blowing up the military and the government is the easy part - the really tough questions are "what happens after that" and "who will pay for it?" JeffersonClay posted:Does anyone really think that China would have any significant difficulty effectively closing its border to North Korean refugees if it didn't want them? quote:I'm having trouble imagining how China could simultaneously be terrified of millions of starving unarmed refugees but be totally unconcerned with the hegemonic expansion of the world's foremost military power/ alliance to its doorstep. Halloween Jack fucked around with this message at 19:54 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 19:49
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Halloween Jack posted:I agree, but I don't understand how this is apropos to my question. Is China spending more to maintain the DPRK than they're making back? I understand that it's less than they'd pay to deal with millions of refugees, but I question the description of NK as a "tributary state." Historically the Han/Ming gave out more in gifts to their vassal states then they received in tribute, it's about prestige not trade deals.
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May 13, 2015 19:54
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JeffersonClay posted:If you were China attempting to fight off a technologically superior imperialist aggressor with attrition and maybe WMD use, would you rather do the fighting in Manchuria or N. Korea? Perhaps their experience doing exactly that against the Japanese for over a decade convinced many that the Chinese civilian population would be better served if that battle were fought abroad. Perhaps that is part of the reason when Chinese foreign affairs scholars are asked what concerns them about korean unification, strategic diplomatic and military consequences are the primary response. Why should China foot the cost and come out like a bad guy anyway (I am sure news will take pictures of women and children crying on the other side of the fence starving to death, just like those SK embassy rushing photos). The right thing to do is have NK go through their own economic reform and turn into a more China/Vietnam like communist country and build and basis for unification. Basically the North Korean need to do this themselves. It's not China's job to spank Kim 3.
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May 13, 2015 19:58
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JeffersonClay posted:If you were China attempting to fight off a technologically superior imperialist aggressor with attrition and maybe WMD use, would you rather do the fighting in Manchuria or N. Korea? Perhaps their experience doing exactly that against the Japanese for over a decade convinced many that the Chinese civilian population would be better served if that battle were fought abroad. Perhaps that is part of the reason when Chinese foreign affairs scholars are asked what concerns them about korean unification, strategic diplomatic and military consequences are the primary response. This might be a point were it not for the fact thet the North Korean armed forces are a bad joke and would be rolled in weeks at most. A buffer zone actually needs to do some damage or present some kind of hindrance in order to be effective, and North Korea isn't exactly the bastion of military might that will stop the Imperialist steamroller. JeffersonClay posted:Does anyone really think that China would have any significant difficulty effectively closing its border to North Korean refugees if it didn't want them? I'm having trouble imagining how China could simultaneously be terrified of millions of starving unarmed refugees but be totally unconcerned with the hegemonic expansion of the world's foremost military power/ alliance to its doorstep. How? Are they going to start machinegunning masses of people trying to cross the Yalu river or what? Because that is what it would take, and that is also pretty drat bad PR.
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May 13, 2015 20:07
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Cerebral Bore posted:How? Are they going to start machinegunning masses of people trying to cross the Yalu river or what? Because that is what it would take, and that is also pretty drat bad PR. Build a fence, and arrest and deport anyone who crosses. Not exactly rocket science. Alternatively, in your dystopic future where North Korean immigrants are willing to cross rivers under machine-gun fire, build a minefield and mark it.
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May 13, 2015 20:10
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Cerebral Bore posted:How? Are they going to start machinegunning masses of people trying to cross the Yalu river or what? Because that is what it would take, and that is also pretty drat bad PR. It's China.
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May 13, 2015 20:15
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Kaal posted:Build a fence, and arrest and deport anyone who crosses. Not exactly rocket science. Alternatively, in your dystopic future where North Korean immigrants are willing to cross rivers under machine-gun fire, build a minefield and mark it. Not even Kurd hating Turkey border guards gun down refugees, don't be an idiot.
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May 13, 2015 20:18
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Kaal posted:Build a fence, and arrest and deport anyone who crosses. Not exactly rocket science. Alternatively, in your dystopic future where North Korean immigrants are willing to cross rivers under machine-gun fire, build a minefield and mark it. Arrest and deport like million desperate people fleeing for their lives? Yeah, that sure sounds feasible. Also China should build a minefield 1000 km long apparently. WarpedNaba posted:It's China. So it is. I'd imagine that the calls for boycotting China would become a bit louder of they were openly machinegunning refugees, and I'd imagine that China doesn't want that. They're all about not rocking the boat, and guess what? Open atrocities do just that.
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May 13, 2015 20:23
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whatever7 posted:Not even Kurd hating Turkey border guards gun down refugees, don't be an idiot. Thanks for repeating what I just said smarty-pants 
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May 13, 2015 20:23
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Halloween Jack posted:They don't have an easy time repatriating the 200,000 or so who are already there. I think China is happy enough to have the current stock of North Korean immigrants to use as cheap labor/sex workers/brides. I think at the point China didn't want them, or any more of them, it would be trivial to make their wishes reality. The study I linked proves the point here-- China isn't concerned with a unified Korea If it's not aligned with the U.S. and if it isn't used to expand U.S. Military presence in the peninsula. I guess the chinese are not as confident as you are that reunification has no risk of these outcomes coming to pass.
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May 13, 2015 20:30
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Cerebral Bore posted:This might be a point were it not for the fact thet the North Korean armed forces are a bad joke and would be rolled in weeks at most. A buffer zone actually needs to do some damage or present some kind of hindrance in order to be effective, and North Korea isn't exactly the bastion of military might that will stop the Imperialist steamroller.
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May 13, 2015 20:31
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Cerebral Bore posted:Arrest and deport like million desperate people fleeing for their lives? Yeah, that sure sounds feasible. Also China should build a minefield 1000 km long apparently. The US arrested and deported a third of a million immigrants last year, the vast majority halted while crossing the border. Europe as a whole deports at least that many (figures are hard to come by since each nation counts them differently). I don't know why you think that China wouldn't be able to do the same thing. Similarly, when a mine can cost as little as $3 and be machine-deployed (or even air-deployed), mines are a lot more likely than deploying machine-gunners along the 1400 km border to shoot down the Kaal fucked around with this message at 20:37 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 20:31
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Kaal posted:The US arrested and deported a third of a million immigrants last year, the vast majority halted while crossing the border. Europe as a whole deports at least that many (figures are hard to come by since each nation counts them differently). I don't know why you think that China wouldn't be able to do the same thing. Because they'd be deporting them straight back into a warzone with an extremely porous border. What exactly would stop the refugees from trying again?
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May 13, 2015 20:35
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Cerebral Bore posted:Because they'd be deporting them straight back into a warzone with an extremely porous border. What exactly would stop the refugees from trying again? Right? I mean who wouldn't want to spend some time in a Chinese prison awaiting deportation? Obviously they'll just swim right back across the rivers / cross the mountains on foot. Then they can build a human pyramid to climb over the barbed-wire fences, push their way through the tear gas and waiting troops, and force their way to freedom in China. If that doesn't work, try again tomorrow. China will be powerless to stop them! edit: Again, whatever7, I would like to let you know that this post contains sarcasm and should not be interpreted as supporting the idea that this is actually going to happen. North Koreans are people, not video-game characters, and aren't going to rush the barricades every afternoon. Kaal fucked around with this message at 20:48 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 20:38
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Kaal posted:Right? I mean who wouldn't want to spend some time in a Chinese prison awaiting deportation? We're talking about people from North Korea, man. And a hypothetical North Korea that has been bombed to poo poo at that. Chinese prison would probably be a significant step up in their quality of life. Kaal posted:Obviously they'll just swim right back across the rivers / cross the mountains on foot. China will be powerless to stop them! The border is like 1400 km long and a lot of it is mountains and forests. The people sent back into a warzone to starve sure as poo poo would try their luck as many times at it takes. Also again, how are they going to stop them short of machinegunning people trying to swim the Yalu river?
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May 13, 2015 20:46
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Kaal posted:The US arrested and deported a third of a million immigrants last year, the vast majority halted while crossing the border. Europe as a whole deports at least that many (figures are hard to come by since each nation counts them differently). I don't know why you think that China wouldn't be able to do the same thing. Similarly, when a mine can cost as little as $3 and be machine-deployed (or even air-deployed), mines are a lot more likely than deploying machine-gunners along the 1400 km border to shoot down the I didn't say it couldn't be done. I said it would cost China and China doesn't want to foot the bill. Are we even on the same page arguing the same poo poo?
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May 13, 2015 20:47
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If China could/would actually fence off North Korea and let nobody in or out, that would have a disastrous effect on the black market which is, at this point, integral to North Korea's economy.
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May 13, 2015 20:50
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whatever7 posted:Are we even on the same page arguing the same poo poo? I don't know, I'm just pulling your chain for coming out swinging.
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May 13, 2015 20:50
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Cerebral Bore posted:We're talking about people from North Korea, man. And a hypothetical North Korea that has been bombed to poo poo at that. Chinese prison would probably be a significant step up in their quality of life. We're talking about people mate. I don't know about you, but few people are particularly interested in disregarding life and limb for the promise of indefinite imprisonment in a Chinese prison, regardless of their background. quote:The border is like 1400 km long and a lot of it is mountains and forests. The people sent back into a warzone to starve sure as poo poo would try their luck as many times at it takes. Also again, how are they going to stop them short of machinegunning people trying to swim the Yalu river? Again, in this impossible future where North Koreans by the millions were willing to shrug off bullets and shell, climb mountains and ford rivers, scale 15 foot fences topped with barbed wire, suffer all sorts of costs and indignities, etc., just for the chance of sitting in a Chinese border camp, the Chinese would simply build a minefield. There is no, repeat no, reason that China (or any large nation) would be forced to choose between opening their borders or machine-gunning civilians. Kaal fucked around with this message at 20:58 on May 13, 2015 |
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May 13, 2015 20:51
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Kaal posted:The US arrested and deported a third of a million immigrants last year, the vast majority halted while crossing the border. And how many make it and have spent decades here? Also, some huge percentage try and try again despite spending signifcant time in ICE jails.
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May 13, 2015 20:55
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Halloween Jack posted:China probably wouldn't want to fight the US in NK rather than its own territory. Having NK as a buffer doesn't preclude the Chinese from fighting in their own territory, it forces an aggressor to fight through hundreds of miles of rugged terrain, being blooded the entire time, before they can set foot on Chinese territory. Defense in depth is a thing.
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May 13, 2015 21:09
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Halloween Jack posted:The South Koreans don't exactly love the United States. A South Korea that no longer needed the US to protect them from the North would hardly be a puppet government of the US. South Korea is one of the most pro-US countries in the entire world. Occasional popular bluster over American GIs being huge shits doesn't mean the Koreans are gonna turn their backs on their strategic safety, which, even after reunification, is incredibly reliant on the US.
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May 13, 2015 21:10
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JeffersonClay posted:Having NK as a buffer doesn't preclude the Chinese from fighting in their own territory, it forces an aggressor to fight through hundreds of miles of rugged terrain, being blooded the entire time, before they can set foot on Chinese territory. Defense in depth is a thing. woah i didn't know tom clancy's corpse posted here
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May 13, 2015 21:11
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Koramei posted:South Korea is one of the most pro-US countries in the entire world. Occasional popular bluster over American GIs being huge shits doesn't mean the Koreans are gonna turn their backs on their strategic safety, which, even after reunification, is incredibly reliant on the US. To some extent, it is reliant on the US on purpose - the US has repeatedly bullied South Korea into canceling nuclear weapons programs, and I think it's safe to say that if the US pulled out, South Korea could very well have nuclear weapons capabilities within a few years.
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May 13, 2015 21:15
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JeffersonClay posted:Having NK as a buffer doesn't preclude the Chinese from fighting in their own territory, it forces an aggressor to fight through hundreds of miles of rugged terrain, being blooded the entire time, before they can set foot on Chinese territory. Defense in depth is a thing. Blooded by what? Some half-starved conscripts toting hand-me-downs from the last war?
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May 13, 2015 21:16
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nm posted:And how many make it and have spent decades here? Also, some huge percentage try and try again despite spending signifcant time in ICE jails. Enforcement is more effective than you might think. Ever since the US started getting serious about closing its borders and start building fences and conducting patrols, illegal immigration has flat-lined. The vast-majority of illegal immigrants in the United States are now long-term residents, whereas prior to enforcement approximately half of them had immigrated within the last five years. The US hasn't shown an active interest in patrolling its own streets and deporting established illegal immigrant families, but it has closed the border pretty effectively (without even particularly militarizing the border, or alarming its own population). China is already emulating the United States in building fences along their border with North Korea and creating a dedicated border force rather than simply using army units. In the event of some massive calamity that threatened to send millions of North Korean immigrants across their border and overwhelm their defenses, they'd probably just secure any vulnerable areas (like cities) and then set up border camps. http://www.pewhispanic.org/2014/09/03/as-growth-stalls-unauthorized-immigrant-population-becomes-more-settled/ 
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May 13, 2015 21:21
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I'm happy to concede that anyone who thinks the U.S. and pals are going to invade China through Korea are paranoid and/or heavily insulated from political reality. I think paranoid and heavily insulated from political reality might accurately describe a significant number of the people who make Chinese foreign policy.
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May 13, 2015 21:23
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