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Dreylad posted:I hear northern Ontario is beautiful this time of year. Yea, if you happen to be a mosquito or black fly.
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May 14, 2015 06:05
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AegisP posted:Yea, if you happen to be a mosquito or black fly. they are second rate bloodsuckers compared to bankers and real estate agents.
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May 14, 2015 06:14
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Kafka Esq. posted:Frankly none of this reflects my experience with about one hundred small business owners over the course of two years. I think I depends a lot on where you're looking. Back by were I grew up in a small rural village like half of the parents that I knew ran their own consulting firm in either IT, management or the public sector with varying degrees of success. When I moved into a city at a later age I immediately started noticing how specialised stores, restaurants and night clubs would pop up to then within less then a year change owner or disappear. Worst of all was our cities pizzerias (  ) where maybe 6 were stable and the other 50 were stuck in permanent limbo where they changed owners about every 6 months. I don't doubt that there are some that get past the early crunch but most don't, especially if they try to enter a product-dominant and competitive field which is what the "kitchen nightmares"-style idealists tend to do. It's much easier to carve out a niche as a consultant then as a purveyor because you cut out both location and logistics as factors.
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May 14, 2015 07:00
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Enjoy rising inflation because under no circumstances ever should something be done to deflate the housing market: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stephen-poloz-may-let-inflation-creep-higher-don-pittis-1.3070933
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May 14, 2015 07:53
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Regarding "small businesses" like stores, restaurants and bars, is it possible that it's another consequence of our useless zoning and city planning? It's harder to establish yourself when you rely on people who are at work (and probably rushed and time-limited) or people who are making a special trip (since this will require a following of sorts) rather than just relying on people in the area noticing you. Also, a lot of the spaces I see for lease in Calgary are all really, really large. Maybe small businesses should be allowed to be physically smaller than they are. If you're trying to run a 20- or 30-seat bistro instead of a 60-seat or 100-seat restaurant, your costs are going to be lower, so it should be quicker to get from startup to positive cashflow.
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May 14, 2015 12:38
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blah_blah posted:Enjoy rising inflation because under no circumstances ever should something be done to deflate the housing market: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stephen-poloz-may-let-inflation-creep-higher-don-pittis-1.3070933 gently caress it buy a house.
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May 14, 2015 13:29
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blah_blah posted:Enjoy rising inflation because under no circumstances ever should something be done to deflate the housing market: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stephen-poloz-may-let-inflation-creep-higher-don-pittis-1.3070933 Fantastic, please reward my responsible decision of saving by making those savings devalue even faster. 
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May 14, 2015 13:41
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Jan posted:Fantastic, please reward my responsible decision of saving by making those savings devalue even faster. The thought of my down payment savings being inflated away while waiting for the housing market return to sanity pisses me off to no end. I'm sure that if they're willing to set inflation targets for 4% they'd also be willing to literally take my money with a smirk and a 'sorry, we have to protect existing home owners'. So gently caress it. Its time to buy a house.
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May 14, 2015 13:49
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The first year inflation hits 4% with prime this low I'm dumping my TFSAs for real estate and will become a slumlord.
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May 14, 2015 14:28
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I've worked for the same company for 3.5 years now and they've given their employees one 2% raise in that time, so adjusted for inflation I'm being paid something like 4% less now than when I started. I can't wait for 4% inflation to be the new benchmark!!
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May 14, 2015 14:38
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EvilJoven posted:I'm sure that if they're willing to set inflation targets for 4% they'd also be willing to literally take my money with a smirk and a 'sorry, we have to protect existing home owners'. They would be willing to do whatever (they believe) it will take to keep the economy rolling. Central banks are not your friend, and you take their advice at your personal peril. My gut tells me that Poloz is going to go down in history as hilariously incapable (like New Orleans FEMA level) at his job. His statements in the first half of his year have oscilliated between  and  . Now doubling the inflation target is a thing our central banker is idly spectulating about, despite interest rates already being zero for years. How did we get to this point? ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 16:29 on May 14, 2015 |
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May 14, 2015 14:54
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I'm really glad we're all so handsome and smart that we would never have a crash like the US. Bring on the inflation!
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May 14, 2015 14:59
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 as if they're even going to get close to that target. If every government on the planet has been struggling to meet the bog-standard 2% target (including Canada) then what makes you believe that Canada can suddenly reach 4%? It's just not happening short of the central bank starting to send checks to citizens.
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May 14, 2015 15:03
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Inflation at this point would be a good thing. It would mean the economy is growing. We're not going to see inflation for a long time.
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May 14, 2015 15:07
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Cultural Imperial posted:Inflation at this point would be a good thing. It would mean the economy is growing. Yes, I think deflation/contraction is actually much more likely.
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May 14, 2015 16:03
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I know this was posted a few pages ago, but I got to bump it again.quote:B.C. Premier Christy Clark opposed to taxing foreign homeowners The government is finally acknowledging that foreign investment increases prices. Before this they would shrug their shoulders, say they had no data on who owns what, and that they were completely powerless. It'd be racist to suggest they do anything different than the status quo. I hope the media keeps piling on because the government is actually having to start to talk about this issue more and more. I'd love to see what the BC NDP thinks about this next. They're so backward and terrible that I do not expect them to have a different position than the BC Libs here.
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May 14, 2015 16:56
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It would be political suicide to diminish 'wealth' and 'equity' in anyone's portfolio. I'm still calling this: you won't see any significant action taken to modify the housing policy or cmhc policies until after a crash.
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May 14, 2015 17:06
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Femtosecond posted:The government is finally acknowledging that foreign investment increases prices. Before this they would shrug their shoulders, say they had no data on who owns what, and that they were completely powerless. It'd be racist to suggest they do anything different than the status quo. Unfortunately Christie Clarke is speaking from the same position of authority on the subject as my neighbor down the street does. Their information hasn't changed about who owns what, or it's quantifiable effect. ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 17:45 on May 14, 2015 |
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May 14, 2015 17:41
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Also post crash everyone will be scrambling to vote in what ever party promises to basically create another massively subsidized bubble. No lessons will be learned.
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May 14, 2015 17:57
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at that BoC news. We have this radical new monetary policy. Instead of an inflation mandate we're going to set interest rates at whatever best preserves the wealth of loving house owning boomers.
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May 14, 2015 18:02
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I'm pretty happy right now that most of my net worth is in USD denominated foreign equities.
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May 14, 2015 18:22
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Lexicon posted:I'm pretty happy right now that most of my net worth is in USD denominated foreign equities.  Bet nobody is laughing at my "no bonds no Canada" allotments now, are ya? 
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May 14, 2015 18:24
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Franks Happy Place posted:
Nah, I still think that's extreme. I agree with you directionally, but not in magnitude. I still have 10% in Canadian equities, if only because the domestic corps are super good at fleecing the docile domestic consumer.
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May 14, 2015 18:29
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Bonds suck all day long, agreed.
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May 14, 2015 18:32
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Franks Happy Place posted:
The Canada index is still ahead of US index since the start of this year  You have a point on bonds though. Lexicon posted:Nah, I still think that's extreme. I agree with you directionally, but not in magnitude. I still have 10% in Canadian equities, if only because the domestic corps are super good at fleecing the docile domestic consumer. So you also hold banking and telecom 
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May 14, 2015 18:33
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Lexicon posted:Nah, I still think that's extreme. I agree with you directionally, but not in magnitude. I still have 10% in Canadian equities, if only because the domestic corps are super good at fleecing the docile domestic consumer. That's over 3X the size of our GDP relative to the world economy, though. That's just inherently overweight in Canadian equities, even before you account for your personal exposure to the Canadian economy via your job etc. I wouldn't put 10% of my portfolio in Korean or Italian stocks, either, nevermind the whole "overdue for a massive recession" argument. jm20 posted:The Canada index is still ahead of US index since the start of this year If you factor in the currency valuations, which you should, it massively shifts in favour of the US index. I don't want to own one single Canadian dollar more than I have to when the Bank of Canada governor is evidently a fuckwit. Franks Happy Place fucked around with this message at 18:37 on May 14, 2015 |
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May 14, 2015 18:35
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Y'all know nothings would be billionaires if you knew what to do with bonds in 2010.
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May 14, 2015 18:43
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Franks Happy Place posted:
Even the small amounts of non-taxable muni bonds I own are up 6% y/y. It's good to be investing in America. I'm also all USD and hold no Canadian equity except indirectly though holding SCHF (~6%) and VT (~3%). In total this means that Canadian equities are under 2% of my portfolio. Cultural Imperial posted:It would be political suicide to diminish 'wealth' and 'equity' in anyone's portfolio. Yeah, that's right. Canada's home ownership rate is ~70%, homeowners are over-leveraged as a class, and they vote more and have more influence than the proportion that don't.
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May 14, 2015 19:27
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 The old adage of shipping logs to Japan and getting Yamaha pianos in return is as true as ever.
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May 14, 2015 19:33
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Cultural Imperial posted:Y'all know nothings would be billionaires if you knew what to do with bonds in 2010. Ignore them and buy an equivalent weight of Apple stock?
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May 14, 2015 19:56
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I've posted about this several times but I'm wondering if I've gotten through to any of you. What do you think the boc really does? Like, do any of you really know what the overnight rate is for? Because if you're all going to poo poo talk monetary policy, you should really do some reading first. SJW NDP voters have way more in common with bit coiners and libertarians than they know.
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May 14, 2015 20:16
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Cultural Imperial posted:I've posted about this several times but I'm wondering if I've gotten through to any of you. What do you think the boc really does? Like, do any of you really know what the overnight rate is for? Because if you're all going to poo poo talk monetary policy, you should really do some reading first. Judging by recent history it is to make public announcements that either contradict their public announcement from three weeks earlier, or radically change their core mandate. Oh to be a fly on the hallowed walls of the Canada Club, to hear what Bay Streets mover and shaker's opinions of Poloz must be.
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May 14, 2015 21:59
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quote:
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N0Y51IH20150514?irpc=932 Strong stable economy you guys. But oh god please stop taking out helocs and spending them 
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May 14, 2015 22:33
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ocrumsprug posted:Judging by recent history it is to make public announcements that either contradict their public announcement from three weeks earlier, or radically change their core mandate. Well if you're a banker, it's probably, thanks for making us rich good buddy!
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May 14, 2015 22:33
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When a Prime Minister who normally doesnt give a poo poo if he ruins the country for generations comes out and says quit spending, you know things are bad.
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May 14, 2015 22:38
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How is it that the cost of land is not included in the inflation rate?
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May 14, 2015 22:42
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Jumpingmanjim posted:How is it that the cost of land is not included in the inflation rate? Look as this rookie thinking you include the price of things that increase in cost in your inflation index.
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May 14, 2015 23:01
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ocrumsprug posted:Look as this rookie thinking you include the price of things that increase in cost in your inflation index. Here in Australia apparently we still count the cost of answering machines.
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May 14, 2015 23:15
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Franks Happy Place posted:That's over 3X the size of our GDP relative to the world economy, though. That's just inherently overweight in Canadian equities, even before you account for your personal exposure to the Canadian economy via your job etc. We can hash this out further in the investing thread, but the GDP argument is facile. It makes some sense to have a bit of an overexposure to your home country for reasons of purchasing power (loss of it is just as big a risk as anything else) as well as preferential after-tax treatment in our case of dividends. As for "overdue for a massive recession" - that's been true every year since 2010, and the non-investor in Canada has lost out big-time. That's just market timing by another name. Keeping exposure reasonable is the way to go. I don't think zero is reasonable. I do agree that 10% is getting to be about as high as one sensibly ought to go, but funnily enough, that's probably in the 5th percentile of Canadian equity holders. Sooo many Canadians have their Canadian allocation around 40-50% 
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May 14, 2015 23:47
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Lexicon posted:We can hash this out further in the investing thread, but the GDP argument is facile. It makes some sense to have a bit of an overexposure to your home country for reasons of purchasing power (loss of it is just as big a risk as anything else) as well as preferential after-tax treatment in our case of dividends. As for "overdue for a massive recession" - that's been true every year since 2010, and the non-investor in Canada has lost out big-time. That's just market timing by another name. All fair points. We disagree, but definitely not in a way I think you're nuts or anything.
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May 14, 2015 23:48
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