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What happened at 11am that caused things to start rocketing?
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May 18, 2015 16:44
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MJP posted:Oh man, when should I be worrying that AMBA will stop going up? This is probably the coolest thing, I've gotten around 74% return on it so far. Add a loose trailing stop and forget about it so you never have to watch that 74% go away.
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May 18, 2015 16:44
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ACLS still going up. Good job, stock.
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May 18, 2015 16:47
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Got the short in on EBIX, 1k shares at 35.94, of course it shot right up. Would've preferred put options, but they've barely budged despite a 7% jump today.Turkeybone posted:What happened at 11am that caused things to start rocketing? Icahn released a letter to Tim Cook at 11am about Apple being underpriced. Apple rose and maybe some other stocks followed in its tailwind.
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May 18, 2015 17:13
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Arkane posted:Icahn released a letter to Tim Cook at 11am about Apple being underpriced. Apple rose and maybe some other stocks followed in its tailwind. From zerohedge: - Size of AAPL: $750BN - Size of entire Greek stock market: $44BN. AAPL is up 0.25 Greeces on a tweet
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May 18, 2015 17:50
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They should send three more tweets and then arrange a buyout of Greece. Rename it Jobslandia.
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May 18, 2015 18:03
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I don't think Apple would make such a terrible investment.
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May 18, 2015 18:05
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I'm officially 100% out of EBIX for the first time in a long time, so I hope that your short works out Arkane (because that would give me another reentry point). Does the extreme short percentage and days to cover give you any concern? It would scare the poo poo out of me!
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May 18, 2015 18:39
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DNova posted:I don't think Apple would make such a terrible investment. Well, they did turn SoundJam into iTunes and create OSX/iOS out of NeXT. Maybe they can turn Greece into something useful.
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May 18, 2015 19:02
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I don't think anyone should take credit for creating iTunes.
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May 18, 2015 19:43
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District Selectman posted:I'm officially 100% out of EBIX for the first time in a long time, so I hope that your short works out Arkane (because that would give me another reentry point). Does the extreme short percentage and days to cover give you any concern? It would scare the poo poo out of me! Nah If you look at the price of the stock over the past couple of years, as I am sure you are aware, you can see that it plummeted to 10, and has now almost quadrupled to an all-time high. What has changed in their business? Not much! The firm is still under investigation as far as we know. There is no discernible organic growth. The P/E has gone from 5 to 20 in that time period. The EV/EBITDA is at its highest point in the past 10 years, and just pushed through 15(!). The London thing seems like it has very little revenue potential from the few things I have read about it (and from the CEO's own comments on the revenue that they're "aspiring" to in 2015 & 2016). So we have a stock growing like a momo with no growth? I think this move higher in the past few months is a short squeeze, and that the upside is limited, with the downside having the most potential (this was probably the reverse when the company was trading in the 10-15 area where the upside might have presented a great risk/reward). Ideally I'd be buying puts, but they're expensive. Also ideally there would be some sort of catalyst on the horizon, but an overheated security that has detached from fundamentals may be a catalyst in and of itself. Arkane fucked around with this message at 19:54 on May 18, 2015 |
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May 18, 2015 19:51
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Add a loose trailing stop and forget about it so you never have to watch that 74% go away. How loose is loose? Saw a couple of analyst reports that call it overvalued and set a $79 target, others are holding by $88 targets. Vanguard only lets you do 30-day stop loss orders, but I'm toying with just keeping a close eye in case it dips below say $78 temporarily and then goes back up.
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May 18, 2015 20:12
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Take the emotion out of it and set a trailing 10 or 15% stop order. This will protect your gains and sanity over the long term. Take the spoils of conquered battlefields back to your castle and when you lose, accept it and live to fight another day.
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May 18, 2015 20:27
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Or, if you're worried and there's enough options volume that you don't get destroyed on the spreads, look into putting on a zero cost collar.
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May 18, 2015 20:39
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I have a stock that's done really well for me (65% return so far) but they're about to do a secondary public offering. I haven't followed any stocks that have done this closely enough but the general consensus seems to be that it usually lowers the share price a bit in the long run. Should I sell now or am I wrong in thinking that a secondary offering is usually a bad thing (much like a reverse split)
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May 19, 2015 05:11
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I decided yesterday that shorting YGE was very probably a good idea. I didn't decided to do it however. Oh well.
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May 19, 2015 14:53
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Seadrill, SDRL, is doing spectacularly at the moment! Some no-name hedge fund upgraded it to buy, and if it keeps heading in this direction it will be a solid sell.
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May 19, 2015 15:02
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Arkane posted:Nah Keep in mind that the float has been reduced by about 25% over the past two years. I personally don't put much weight into the investigation, but, there is indeed still a non zero chance something negative comes of it - I think it's very close to zero though. As for the rest, I mostly agree on a fundamentals basis. EBIX is an ugly company in a boring industry with a possibly crazy person as CEO. But they make money, they do grow (by making acquisitions) and at one point you could buy them for very cheap. I would buy a company specializing in selling bags of human poo poo if they were profitable and I could buy shares at the right price. EBIX is probably 30% or more overvalued at this point and buying now would mean believing in the company as a company, not a distressed asset. I like them as a distressed asset, but I don't like them as a company. I felt the same way about Yahoo in late 2014. I certainly have no interest in buying EBIX at $37, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it keep running up due to a prolonged short squeeze.
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May 19, 2015 15:06
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Whistling rear end in a top hat posted:I have a stock that's done really well for me (65% return so far) but they're about to do a secondary public offering. I haven't followed any stocks that have done this closely enough but the general consensus seems to be that it usually lowers the share price a bit in the long run. Should I sell now or am I wrong in thinking that a secondary offering is usually a bad thing (much like a reverse split) Depends if the company puts the cash to good use. Secondary offering is theoretically neutral. What it does tell you is that the current business isn't generating enough cash (perhaps because they're in a down cycle or perhaps because the business isn't near free cash flow or profitability as of yet).
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May 19, 2015 15:35
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What is that shiny new dividend I see in my account? 11 cents in total? Why thank you, google!
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May 19, 2015 19:30
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I like holding on to TNA Is that wrong?
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May 20, 2015 06:25
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Don't we all. 
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May 20, 2015 14:47
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Sold SAFM when it edged over $83 - Good for 7% or so in a couple weeks. Thanks once again Arkane.
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May 20, 2015 16:43
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Anyone else in VDE? I went in this January at about 110 hoping for a bump this summer or next summer. Seems like I'll be waiting till next summer or later for anything significant to happen due to the continuing oil glut. I'm happy to be patient but I'm curious if anyone else is long in the energy sector and has ideas about what I should look out for. Maybe I was overly optimistic when I bought this winter.
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May 20, 2015 18:03
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Pretty interesting what happened to Solar ETF $TAN today http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-solar-stock-implosion-a-reminder-to-look-under-an-etfs-hood-2015-05-20
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May 20, 2015 19:10
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jmzero posted:Sold SAFM when it edged over $83 - Good for 7% or so in a couple weeks. Thanks once again Arkane. Still holding SAFM, in for only a taste though.
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May 20, 2015 22:45
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Is there a way to view a list of your transactions, with dates, prices etc in Interactive Brokers? I'm using them for the API, but their TWS and website design is unforgivably poor.
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May 21, 2015 06:48
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Dominoes posted:Is there a way to view a list of your transactions, with dates, prices etc in Interactive Brokers? Yes, it's in reports somewhere in account management. I can't look at the moment so I can't give you a more specific idea but it's there. I don't know if it is available with the API. Their website is pretty bad but once you know where stuff is, it's tolerable.
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May 21, 2015 07:03
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Pron on VHS posted:Pretty interesting what happened to Solar ETF $TAN today Fuuuck me, I blinked and missed a lot of the dip to good solar companies. I traded my INTC for CSIQ and hopefully JASO will remain cheap for a while (funds transferring), but TSL and JKS already bounced back. Who wants to start a pool on when YGE stops circling the drain and goes down the pipes?
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May 21, 2015 14:52
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Slarlid posted:Fuuuck me, I blinked and missed a lot of the dip to good solar companies. I traded my INTC for CSIQ and hopefully JASO will remain cheap for a while (funds transferring), but TSL and JKS already bounced back. Who wants to start a pool on when YGE stops circling the drain and goes down the pipes? Ugh, me too. I was all excited to buy CSIQ and TSL this morning. And I was even going to buy back into SSYS. Instead I guess I'm just putting it all into VT like a boring jerk.
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May 21, 2015 15:12
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AMBA hit $86.75 yesterday and looks to be trending back down. Analysts changed their targets - a little bit ago they targeted $86, now the target is $73. I have a 60-day stop loss on it for I think $79, which still leaves me with a good chunk of change, but should I sell now?
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May 21, 2015 15:43
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Ok seadrill is legitimately doing pretty well today. It will probably be all over the board until earnings on the 28th which I would suspect would drive the price lower. edit: unless oil keeps going up. Torpor fucked around with this message at 18:21 on May 21, 2015 |
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May 21, 2015 18:19
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Here's a fun fact: a mere 2.5% drop in a day in the S&P (a little over $5) would be enough to be in the top 20 largest point losses in history. That's point losses, not percentage losses. It's kind of amusing to think about given how many times in the past 2 months the DAX has fallen close to 2.5% (Since April I think it's had 2 2.5% drops in a day). At this stage what used to be a crisis drop will now just be normal volatility.
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May 22, 2015 01:00
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Jack posted:Here's a fun fact: a mere 2.5% drop in a day in the S&P (a little over $5) would be enough to be in the top 20 largest point losses in history. That's point losses, not percentage losses. It's kind of amusing to think about given how many times in the past 2 months the DAX has fallen close to 2.5% (Since April I think it's had 2 2.5% drops in a day). At this stage what used to be a crisis drop will now just be normal volatility. (a little over *$50)
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May 22, 2015 13:20
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AMBA is back up to $86 turf Quit playing games with my heart :-(
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May 22, 2015 15:14
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Braincool update: after the news came out that they will apply for patent in the EU, the US and Japan for the mycosis preventing system, this week has been insane. The stock has increased in value by 100%, breaking the ATH and record turnover every day. There is most likely more to come next week. At the start of 2015 we were somewhere around 1000 stock owners, now we are about double that. My portfolio was quite unbalanced before this, with BC accounting for ~15% of my total value. Now it is closing in on 50%. Does this matter? Is an unbalanced portfolio inherently bad?
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May 22, 2015 17:51
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Potrzebie posted:My portfolio was quite unbalanced before this, with BC accounting for ~15% of my total value. Now it is closing in on 50%. Does this matter? Is an unbalanced portfolio inherently bad? "Bad" is kind of a qualitative value judgement. It's up to you. But concentrating your portfolio in a single security does increase your risk from exposure to volatility of that one security. How much risk can you tolerate?
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May 22, 2015 18:16
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If you really believe in it then I don't see a problem with taking a risky overweight position, but it's risky. Also if you sell to rebalance I'm assuming you're paying short term gains taxes vs maybe holding long enough to qualify for capital gains, so it's basically a 20% hair cut right off the bat. Don't know how far away you are from getting long term status, but if you have a giant chunk of money tied up in a risky position it's something to think about.
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May 22, 2015 23:01
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District Selectman posted:If you really believe in it then I don't see a problem with taking a risky overweight position, but it's risky. Sweden has a ridiculous investment account sollution called ISK where we only pay something like LIBOR×0.12 in quarterly fee on the total value of assets in that account and nothing else. In the event of negative LIBOR, we pay nothing.
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May 23, 2015 08:43
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Just hold onto ANR a little longer....
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May 26, 2015 23:56
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