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I like Gagamaru a lot because he is the biggest. I hope he can pick it up, he hasn't looked too great so far.
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May 15, 2015 17:16
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 09:01 |
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Tochinoshin's fought well against the Yokozuna, Ozeki and Terunofuji and only got 1 win out of it. I hope he can manage 7/9 against the weaker rikishi.
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May 15, 2015 17:40
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Tsaedje posted:Tochinoshin's fought well against the Yokozuna, Ozeki and Terunofuji and only got 1 win out of it. I hope he can manage 7/9 against the weaker rikishi. I think that's the optimistic result for anyone who does well against Hakuho, Harumafuji, and Terunofuji 
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May 15, 2015 17:47
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I hope Kyokutenhou can keep this up, it's great seeing a guy his age hold his own out there.
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May 15, 2015 19:59
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Since Ryogoku is on my way back from my girlfriend's place, I decided on a whim to see if I could get tickets today. I got there around 12:30 and apparently every single day for the rest of the tournament is sold out. I'm watching now, it's the middle of makuuchi, and wouldn't you know it there appears to be plenty of empty seats in the balcony. 
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May 16, 2015 09:14
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Going to a basho and watching 90% of the matches was one of the best parts of my two week vacation in Japan. That box style seating is awesome and it would be super cool to have it in America for baseball games since that is a sport that has fans just kinda chilling for several hours. Personally, I'd like that type of seating at every entertainment event that has you sitting for more than an hour, but I'm weird like that.
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May 16, 2015 12:43
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJJoAXQ61xQ Since nobody else has yet.
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May 16, 2015 18:33
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Oosunaarashi probably out due to shoulder injury.
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May 16, 2015 19:06
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That's a bummer, I like the guy and felt like he was having a reasonably good basho. Terunofuji is looking so solid now after the first day loss. I'd bet on ozeki by September tournament? Didn't even realize he hasn't been at the makuuchi level for more than a year or so.
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May 16, 2015 19:33
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Lunsku posted:That's a bummer, I like the guy and felt like he was having a reasonably good basho. He's doing better sumo than the guys actually ranked Ozeki. Even if he doesn't manage 14 this time he's on course to get promotion in July with lower criteria than what they might allow for promotion this time out. 3 Yokozuna and 4 Ozeki seems pretty insane to me though.
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May 16, 2015 20:36
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Goddamn that elbow made short work!
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May 16, 2015 20:42
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Kisenosato vs Oosunaarashi was fantastic. Yeah, Terunofuji has a tall order to go 14-1 this time, because two tournaments ago he went 8-7 as M2. If he gets "only" 10 this time around, he'll have gone 13-2 and 10-5, needing just 11(?) in his next basho for Ozeki. They're just drawing a pretty hard line right now because he wasn't even sanyaku when he got the 8-7, and you typically have to accumulate the minimum Ozeki requirements while at sanyaku.
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May 16, 2015 23:45
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Tsaedje posted:He's doing better sumo than the guys actually ranked Ozeki. Even if he doesn't manage 14 this time he's on course to get promotion in July with lower criteria than what they might allow for promotion this time out. 3 Yokozuna and 4 Ozeki seems pretty insane to me though. There were 6 Ozeki a few years ago. Of course the other extreme is 1993 where there were no yokozuna and 2 ozeki... Fryhtaning posted:Kisenosato vs Oosunaarashi was fantastic. I think the 8-7 M2 is not even being counted. Just the fact if he went 27 wins in 2 basho, it would be enough. It would be silly to wait until the next one, if he got 8-7, he'd have 35, which is much more than 33, but it'd feel weird to promote off an 8 win basho, so they'd rather do it off a 14 win basho. It just looks better probably. And Goeido's was 32 in 3...
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May 17, 2015 03:57
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Day 8 up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QM3FVRrKIEI Nothing special today imo.
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May 17, 2015 11:31
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Uncle Jam posted:And Goeido's was 32 in 3... Goeido spent 14 basho at Sekiwake, including 4 runner-ups, which is pretty incredible considering what a meat-grinder that slot usually is. In hindsight he's a pretty mediocre Ozeki, but at the time I think giving him that chance to get the promo for less than the de facto standard was a justified move. Lol Hakuho getting a free pass. He's probably pissed that he didn't get to elbow someone in the face again.
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May 17, 2015 18:42
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fREy8Lpv7cs A few good escapes and unexpected results today Well that's the long shot Ozeki run over then
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May 18, 2015 12:17
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I literally could not eat my breakfast during that super slo-mo of Aoiyama's dancing titties.  I love backfiring henkas so much.
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May 18, 2015 17:17
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Getting into the last third of the basho and I think some people don't understand or not familiar with criteria for promotion between sekitori divisions. So I made some charts based on previous promotion/demotion rates. On the chart you'll find a certain number of wins for each rank, and how likely it will result in promotion/demotion based on past statistics. For demotion, if a rank has Wins 5: and 40%, that means 40% of the time, 5 wins at that rank results in demotion. You can be fairly sure that 4 wins results in demotion >95% of the time and 6 wins results in demotion <5% of the time. For promotion, it follows in the same way but vice versa. Demotion from Makuuchi usually takes precedent and everything follows from there, so you'll get weird situations where someone needs to be demoted from Makuuchi but J1-J4 all have losing records so some guy in J5 with 8 wins gets the nod. So treat these as rough guidelines. Demotion from Makuuchi to Juryo  Yellow indicates small sample size. So we can see from this chart, Sokokurai at M7 on 1 win is definitely gone, Endo needs at least 2 more wins to stand any chance (and 3 more for absolute confirmation), Chiyotairyu is probably gone from M4 on 0 wins, and Arawashi needs to win out from now to be totally safe. Promotion from Juryo to Makuuchi  Yellow indicates small sample size. In smaller sample sizes, the 2011 mass retirement scandal is excluded. For some big winning numbers it doesn't make sense. J12 Tochinoshin at 13 wins only went up to J5, but J13 Endo at 14 wins went up to Makuuchi. I would pretty much disregard everything lower than J9. Demotion from Juryo to Makushita  Good for following how close an old favorite is to retirement. Yellow again indicates small sample size, and statistics for different kyujo rules were excluded. I don't know why J10 has a larger chance of demotion than J11 at 5 wins, there are more than 10 guys in each pool. Just bad luck for the J10'ers I guess. Promotion from Makushita to Juryo  I think this is interesting because its a good way to follow who's coming into the pros. Makushita wrestlers only have 7 matches per basho. A 7-0 Yusho from rank 13 on up results in an automatic promotion, usually at the expense of guys at Ms1-Ms4 who'd otherwise be promoted. I processed statistics based on years 2004-2015, unless not a large sample size, which I then expanded to 2000-2015, then finally 1990-2015 if really desperate, so its kind of a kludge. 2004 is chosen because the size of Makuuchi and Juryo were expanded that year, so demotions became less severe from that point onwards.
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May 19, 2015 01:20
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Uncle Jam posted:Excel magic You just Moneyball'd sumo. Goddamn. Did you hack the sumodb, or was that painstakingly spergalicious manual work? Something I wasn't clear on was where you said something about 4 wins being 95% for sure and 6 wins almost no chance for demotion. Do you mean that the # in the win column is a sweet spot that massively diverges from those odds on either side of it? Kind of like tuning a radio station... If so, interesting that the odds bounce around a bit.
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May 19, 2015 04:52
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The query function on sumodb is a beautiful thing. Yeah I could have been more clear about that. Basically take one of the charts: Take M10 for example. On 4 wins demotion happens 33% of the time. 3 wins is certain demotion and 5 wins is certain safe zone. It is opposite for promotion, for example J2 9 wins is certain promotion. You would think there would be more of a distribution but it seems like the banzuke makers are pretty consistent. There are always exceptions but it would be like 1 in 30 times, a guy with 5 wins at M10 gets demoted. So its not worth while making more columns. On the other hand, the reason that there is no set in stone rule is because someone must always be exchanged from Juryo. So if there is nobody worthy to be promoted into Makuuchi, a 4 win M10 gets to stay in Makuuchi, but if you have a J3 guy on 14 wins and no other good demotion candidates he's going to be gone. If the amount of wrestlers in each division was allowed to vary they could make rules like 3 wins always goes home; 4 wins stay. Though this would play havoc on their bookkeeping and fixing fights would be more appealing (gaming the system to get as many guys in makuuchi as possible) Its a pretty complex mechanic when you think about it and its not at all obvious to the casual observer compared to relegation in association football.
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May 19, 2015 05:17
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Day 10: https://youtu.be/flvyM3mAts4 YAY GAGA
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May 19, 2015 13:17
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I'm impressed by Kaisei so far. Aren't the sumo masters going to start matching him up with top people because it looks like he's having a walk in the park against the lower rank guys.
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May 19, 2015 14:55
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Hakuho-Terunofuji is set for tomorrow
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May 19, 2015 14:58
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JoeRules posted:Hakuho-Terunofuji is set for tomorrow Oh poo poo.
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May 19, 2015 14:59
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Quantrill posted:YAY GAGA WTF Harumafuji? That looked to me to be a perfect time for one of those signature not-quite-a-henkas. JoeRules posted:Hakuho-Terunofuji is set for tomorrow 
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May 19, 2015 15:38
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No love for Endo? That was a Kirk Gibson performance right there. Hobbled on and whipped somebody's rear end.Kanthulhu posted:I'm impressed by Kaisei so far. Aren't the sumo masters going to start matching him up with top people because it looks like he's having a walk in the park against the lower rank guys. Kaisei gets owned by sanyaku, although he is always a threat to upset someone up top. He's essentially a Brazilian Tochinoshin. Lol Gagamaru gets a kinboshi and acts like a little kid who finally got to meet his sports hero or something. 
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May 19, 2015 15:53
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Gagamaru is such an adorable giant lard monster.
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May 19, 2015 16:16
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Kanthulhu posted:Gagamaru is such an adorable giant lard monster. Love the giddiness.
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May 19, 2015 18:01
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JoeRules posted:Hakuho-Terunofuji is set for tomorrow I'm half-expecting a Hakuho henka, and if so I hope everyone throws their rice balls at him.
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May 19, 2015 18:48
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Fryhtaning posted:No love for Endo? That was a Kirk Gibson performance right there. Hobbled on and whipped somebody's rear end. It looked like someone stuck a lighter up Endou's butt. Right off the line it looked like he was going to win. Then he did his little dance. And he still won. Props. Kanthulhu posted:Gagamaru is such an adorable giant lard monster. I've always liked Gaga. Even when he dipped down to Juryo I had hoped he'd come back. Now he's got a kinboshi. Awesome. Although, I would think Ichinojo is the "adorable lard monster." Dude looks like a fat baby blown-up to adult proportions.
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May 19, 2015 18:49
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WindyMan posted:It looked like someone stuck a lighter up Endou's butt. Right off the line it looked like he was going to win. Then he did his little dance. And he still won. Props. I've never seen Ichinojo as happy as Gagamaru was today though.
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May 19, 2015 19:03
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKCHQUqh0Sk
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May 20, 2015 14:43
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The finish to that final match felt like it came out of nowhere.
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May 20, 2015 16:00
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So, is Brodi getting promoted?
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May 20, 2015 16:18
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Everyone gets promoted from maezumo, its kind of like sumo 101. He'll start in Jonokuchi next time with the normal 7 bout schedule, after taking the 2 month sumo class, where he learns to write his name, wear yukata, and other shiznit. Jonokuchi will probably be easier for him than maezumo, because the people left in Jonokuchi basho to basho are usually 70kg 16 year olds. He won't win the yusho though because of experienced guys in his class. (probably)
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May 20, 2015 16:25
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Terunofuji-Kisenosato tomorrow. If Terunofuji wins, then the yusho is basically Hakuho's and he extends to 7 in a row.
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May 20, 2015 16:28
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Uncle Jam posted:Terunofuji-Kisenosato tomorrow. Now that Hakuho owns the all time record, I'm kind of ready for someone else to take the yusho for once.
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May 21, 2015 01:16
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Fryhtaning posted:Now that Hakuho owns the all time record, I'm kind of ready for someone else to take the yusho for once. Kaisei is coming to surprise everyone! not really
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May 21, 2015 01:23
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Fryhtaning posted:Now that Hakuho owns the all time record, I'm kind of ready for someone else to take the yusho for once. Who knows, he gives one up on the last day every so often. If he gets this one and the next though, he'll be lone hold of most consecutive championships ever. This is my favorite Hakuho stat: As Yokozuna, he's finished in the top 2 of the standings 94% of the time. Harumafuji is only at 25%, and Kisenosato as Ozeki is 28.5% It is so ridiculous.
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May 21, 2015 02:34
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| # ? Jun 6, 2024 09:01 |
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Wow day 12 is loving insane. It starts a little slow but the final matches are amazing. Everyone go watch it asap
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May 21, 2015 12:01
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